European Space Weather Services: Status and Prospects

European Space

Weather Services:

Status and Prospects

Report 68 February 2019

Marco Aliberti Leyton Wells

Short title: ESPI Report 68 ISSN: 2218-0931 (print), 2076-6688 (online) Published in February 2019

Editor and publisher: European Space Policy Institute, ESPI Schwarzenbergplatz 6 • 1030 Vienna • Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel. +43 1 7181118-0; Fax -99

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ESPI Report 68 2 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 5 1.1 Background and Rationales 5 1.2 Objectives and Scope 6 1.3 Research Methodology 7 1.4 Structure of the Study 7

2. Outlining Space Weather Services 8 2.1 Defining Space Weather 8 2.1.1 SWE Causes 8 2.1.2 SWE Events 9 2.1.3 SWE Impact 10 2.2 Defining Space Weather Services 12 2.2.1 SWE Service Categories 13 2.2.2 Stakes for the delivery of operational services 14 2.3 SWE Service Enablers 15 2.3.1 Technological Enablers 15 2.3.2 Market Enablers 20 2.3.3 Organisational Enablers 24

3. European and International Efforts in SWE 25 3.1 The European Architecture for SWE Services 25 3.1.1 Background: From National to Pan-European Efforts 25 3.1.2 European Space Agency 27 3.1.3 European Union 33 3.1.4 EUMETSAT 40 3.2 International Framework for SWE Services 42 3.2.1 International Space Environment Service (ISES) 42 3.2.2 United Nations 43 3.2.3 International Organisations 46 3.2.4 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) 50 3.2.5 International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) 50 3.2.6 Research and Education: COSPAR and ILWS 51 3.2.7 Other International Service Providers 52 3.3 Summary: Status of Supply in the European and International Context 54 3.3.1 Europe 54 3.3.2 International Context 54

4. Towards Operational SWE Services in Europe 56 4.1 Addressing the Technical Gaps 56 4.1.1 Filling Data Gaps 57 4.1.2. Improving Software Maturity 59 4.1.3 Advancing Product and Service Maturity 61 4.2 Addressing Demand/Market Requirements 63 4.2.1 Fortifying Relations with End-Users 63 4.2.2 Identifying Customers 65 4.3 Defining an Appropriate Organisational Setting 67 4.3.1 Scenarios for Operational SWE Services 69 4.3.2 Scenarios Assessment 74 4.4 The Bottom Line: Enhancing Awareness and Preparedness 75 4.5 Elements for a European Roadmap 76

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5. Findings and Recommendations 78

Annexes 81 A.1 Explanation of Terms 81 A.2 NOAA Space Weather Scales 83 A.3 Space Weather Service Demand 85 A.4 Selected National SWE Weather Activities in Europe 98 A.5 Selected Worldwide Institutions Involved in SWE 101 A.6 ESA’s Expert Groups Overview 103 A.7 SWE Projects in EU Framework Programmes (FP7 and H2020) 105 A.8 ESA and Operational Services 111 A.9 Long-Term Sustainability Guidelines of Relevance to SWE 112 A.10 List of External Contributors to the Research 114

List of Acronyms 115

References 119

About ESPI 130

About the Authors 130

ESPI Report 68 4 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

1. Introduction

and organisational basis and, crucially, has a well-identified user-base. In this sense, it can be called self-sufficient. However, to reach this 1.1 Background and point, considerable research and financial investment is required for an innovation to be- Rationales come a sustainable service. While value adding, sustainable services have The shift in recent years towards the develop- been successfully established in the fields of ment of space-based services marks the con- telecommunications, meteorology and, more vergence of space technologies, science and recently, navigation and Earth observation, research in addressing user needs - be they challenges remain in areas outside these tra- societal or commercial. This shift in the overall ditional domains. A clear case in point is Space practical output of space-related activity is of Weather (SWE) services, a rapidly emerging significance also because of its tangible inter- issue-area that has been identified by all Eu- action with wider society for functional pur- ropean stakeholders as needing more pro-ac- poses. Whilst there is no doubt about the value tive action, and the potential for European au- of the advancements made, and the necessary tonomy. foundations that have been laid down, by space activities since the 1950s, it is only in It should be first highlighted that substantial recent times that the practical utility of the space weather-related observation has al- space sector has rapidly expanded. This ap- ready been gathered in the preceding decades plies not only to the scope of missions and re- and a framework for transforming the subse- search, but also to the technological infra- quent data into functional, value-added ser- structures that are becoming increasingly vices is already envisaged within the current available and accessible for exploitation. One European framework. In addition, at national needs only to glance at the current societal de- level some European countries already provide pendence on the satellite applications sector to operational SWE services for certain sectors grasp how substantial a service space sector (e.g. the commercial airlines, the satellite in- can become in only a few decades, presenting dustry, power grid operators, etc). a multitude of socio-economic benefits. However, from a pan-European perspective, In this vein, the further development and po- space weather remains a rather novel area of tential role of space applications and services action for the different European actors, with has been increasingly iterated in both Europe their envisaged transition to operational ser- and internationally. In the development of a vices necessitating an increasingly integrated service-oriented space sector, however, chal- and networked approach to ensure sustaina- lenges persist in the transition from demon- bility. To become fully operational, space stration to operations. In fact, services can be weather services require a strong engagement seen as step(s) beyond the technical feasibility with user communities to develop prepared- or successful demonstration of a particular ness and responses to space weather risks. In new technological system that fulfils a market addition, it calls for synergies between differ- demand. Essentially, a service is the applica- ent stakeholders on the supply side (in both tion, or functional product, of research and in- the space and non-space domain) as well as novation, and generally has a market or user coordination/cooperation efforts at interna- base. Importantly a service has end-users. A tional level. Indeed, as also stressed by sev- pre-operational service is one that whose eral studies, even though there currently are technological feasibility and capabilities have numerous national space-based and ground- been proven, and a basis for estimating overall based assets that could be used to improve costs has been demonstrated, but whose or- space weather services, these assets are gen- ganisational and institutional grounding has erally not effectively coordinated, or easily not yet been fully finalised. By contrast, an op- available beyond the community that operates erational service is sustainable from a techno- them. Observations are not systematically in- logical standpoint, has a strong institutional

ESPI Report 68 5 February 2019

teroperable, shared in near-real time, or documented with metadata that would enable 1.2 Objectives and their most efficient use. In line with this, although each area of application for space Scope weather services has its own specific requirements, the increased interconnectivity of all The overarching objective of this study is to stakeholders involved, and coordination ef- provide an in-depth investigation of the possi- forts at national and international policymak- ble future functioning of space weather ser- ing levels, are essential in building a frame- vices in Europe. This ESPI study will more spe- work that would enable a flourishing and sus- cifically: tainable market base. • Assess and characterize the demand con- As a result, when considering the provision of ditions for space weather services by value-adding space weather services, several elaborating on the various services do- questions remain: mains and the user and customer base • How will the space community move from • Assess and characterize the supply condi- the provision of space weather data to the tions of space weather services by elabo- provision of value-adding operational ser- rating on the current European and inter- vices? national architecture for space weather • What are the gaps in the current European • Investigate the required steps to move and international architecture for space from the provision of space weather infor- weather services? mation to the provision of fully fledged • Who should fill these gaps (private busi- and sustainable operational services ness/ public institutions/ international co- • Identify the technological, business and operation mechanisms)? And how can policy gaps in the current European and they be filled? international architecture for space • What are the drivers for ensuring Euro- weather services pean autonomy on space weather ser- • Elaborate different scenarios for filling vices? How can it be enabled? these gaps, including scenarios centred on Considering this background, the overarching the private sector, public institutions, and objective of this research project is to elabo- international cooperation mechanisms rate on the possible role and actions of various • Assess the pros and cons of each scenario European stakeholders (ESA, the EU, EUMETSAT, private actors) towards the all- • Identify key elements of a possible round development and delivery of operational roadmap for SWE service delivery space weather services to end-users. To this In terms of scope, two layers of research have end, the report will first provide general obser- been identified. vations on the importance of operational SWE services in Europe and on the issues associ- • The first is related to the provision of ated with the establishment of sustainable ser- space weather services at the European vices. Building on this, the demand and supply level. This part of the research will devote conditions will be explored with respect to both particular attention to ESA’s, the EU’s and the European and international contexts, and EUMETSAT’s SWE activities, including a fit/gap analysis of the technological, busi- their interactions (or lack thereof) and ness and policy dimensions will be provided. their role in the international context. This Subsequently, the study will reflect on differ- layer of the research will also consider the ent models for ensuring the smooth provision relations between the different European of value-adding services, including those cen- stakeholders, as well as the interests of tred on public institutions, private actors and private firms. international cooperation mechanisms. Finally, The second layer is related to interna- a cost-benefit analysis of the different models • tional mechanisms. In this respect, the re- will be provided to identify the optimal way port will assess international cooperation forward. formats already established in the field of space weather, such as those led by the International Space Environment Service (ISES), and the different UN specialised organisations, including UNCOPUOS, the WMO and ICAO.

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1.3 Research Meth- 1.4 Structure of the odology Study

The study has been primarily prepared on the Following an overview of rationales and objec- basis of an in-house analysis featuring a pro- tives in this chapter, Chapter 2 provides an in- found literature review of publicly available troductory overview of SWE services. First, a documents, external and internal databases, definition of what SWE is – i.e. causes, events conference proceedings and other biblio- and impacts – leading to evaluation of the im- graphic sources, spanning both space-related portance and stakes of SWE service delivery, and general contributions in the area of space- before providing a basis for defining the provi- based services. In addition, the research has sion of SWE services through characterisation leveraged external contributions by relevant of all their technological, market, and organi- European and international stakeholders in the sational dimensions as a foundation for sus- form of preliminary discussions and feedbacks tainable operation. on the study, as well as interviews and expert Chapter 3 will focus on the ongoing efforts at meetings. Finally, a peer review with experts European and international level towards op- was carried out to validate research findings erational SWE service provision. Beginning before preparation of the final report. with an assessment of the current European The starting point has been to dissect what organisational architecture before moving services are, and how this applies in the con- onto the international framework, this chapter text of SWE services. In doing so, and in ex- will address the institutional and organisa- ploring the potential areas of applications, a tional elements of SWE service provision by characterisation of space weather has been identifying the various stakeholders, organisa- conducted in regards to the technological sys- tions and initiatives relevant to the field of tems that enable the provision of related data SWE services. and subsequent services, market aspects, and Together, this assessment will culminate in a the organisational framework. For the most demand-supply fit/gap analysis that will be part, the technological systems, observational provided in Chapter 4 through an integrated capabilities, and data delivery aspects are al- approach involving all of its technical, eco- ready in place, and so the analysis has focused nomic and policy dimensions. Scientific and on the final stages of the process, from technological, market, and organisation gaps demonstration to operations, assessing the will be highlighted and included within the constituting organisational frameworks into analysis of potential future governance sce- which they are constructed and through which narios that seek to strengthen SWE service they are interlinked. Moving forward, the provision and address the current gaps. In this study has performed a mapping of the institu- penultimate segment, the report will also pro- tions involved in SWE activities at both Euro- vide an overview of potential models of gov- pean and international level and with respect ernance involved in the delivery of operational to both space and non-space aspects. This en- services. Specifically, public, private and pub- abled identification of stakeholders for the in- lic-private frameworks for the provision of terviews, which in turn helped to perform an SWE services will be evaluated in reference to examination of the SWE service demand and one another; looking in detail at each model’s supply environments with an inventory of ex- merits as well as disadvantages for facilitating isting solutions, the fit-gap analysis and the different types of services, and which models elaboration of different governance scenarios best suit the purpose of a particular service in with comparative evaluations. various scenarios. In line with the mission of ESPI to provide Eu- Finally, the overall findings and recommenda- ropean stakeholders with informed analyses in tions of the report will be presented in Chapter the field of space policy and to facilitate the 5, with particular attention paid to what ac- decision-making process, the study has an in- tions can be taken at the European level to herent normative dimension: the research support the transition phase of SWE services more specifically aims to identify what is at from demonstration to operation. stake for the various stakeholders in Europe and elaborate on possible policy actions for European decision-makers.

ESPI Report 68 7 February 2019

2. Outlining Space Weather Services

in the sun’s magnetic fields as they become increasingly unstable, most frequently dis- charged from above sunspots5. These out- 2.1 Defining Space bursts can last from minutes to hours and, travelling at the speed of light, this electro- Weather magnetic energy has an effect on the Sun-facing side of the Earth’s atmosphere that is ob- The term Space Weather (SWE) designates servable at the same time as these events oc- both the physical environment and dynamic cur6. Solar flares can disrupt the area of at- phenomenological state of the space environ- mosphere in which radio waves travel by ment, particularly the Sun and the planetary producing a brief (10-20 minute) atmospheric and interplanetary environments, as well the layer that absorbs high frequency radio scientific discipline associated with its study.1 waves7, leading to degradation and in the The objective of SWE studies, also known as worst scenarios, complete radio blackouts.8 the meteorology of space, is to observe, understand and predict the “dynamic, highly var- iable conditions in the geospace environment Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) including those on the Sun, in the interplane- CMEs are large expulsions of plasma and mag- tary medium, and in the [Earth’s] magneto- netic field originating from the Sun’s coronal sphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system”2 atmosphere. Ejecting vast amounts of coronal which can affect “performance and reliability material as well an embedded magnetic field, of space-borne and ground-based technologi- CMEs travel at speeds from 250 km/s to nearly cal systems and endanger human life or 3000 km/s, often reaching earth in 15-18 health”.3 hours.9 CMEs are sometimes associated with solar flares but can also occur separately. Both consist of large eruptions of energy, however 2.1.1 SWE Causes they emit different properties, as well as ap- pearing and travelling differently, having dif- Most of space weather phenomena are directly ferent impacts on affected planets10. Magnetic linked to solar activities, which can vary de- alterations around the Earth stimulated by pendent on the solar activities and cycle, as CMEs can affect technological systems.11 well as phenomena originating from sources external to the solar system. The main drivers of space weather phenomena interactions with Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) the near-earth environment are listed below. A form of cosmic ray but determined by solar activity, SEPs are high energy charged parti- Solar Flares cles accelerated by the Sun (i.e. predomi- nantly protons and electrons) that travel at A solar flare is an eruption of radiation – right close to the speed of light12. The acceleration across the electromagnetic spectrum from kil- of these charged particles is caused by dy- ometric radio waves through the infrared, vis- namic processes in the magnetised coronal ible and UV ranges to X-rays and Gamma- and interplanetary plasma and are commonly rays4 – emitted from the energy accumulated

1 World Meteorological Organisation, 2016 7 Hapgood, 2010:9 2 Baker, 1998 8 Gleber, 2014 3 World Meteorological Organisation, 2008:3 9 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2018b 4 Schwenn, 2006:21 10 Glaber, 2014 5 European Space Agency, 2018a 11 Glaber, 2014 6 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2018a 12 Gleber, 2014

ESPI Report 68 8 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

associated with solar flares and coronal mass 2.1.2 SWE Events ejections (CMEs).1314 When interacting with the near-Earth environ- Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) ment (the ionosphere, magnetosphere and thermosphere – see Appendix A.1 for the Similar to SEPs, galactic cosmic rays are also terms of reference), the SWE drivers detailed energetic charged particles, produced instead above can cause one or more SWE events, also by the occurrence of supernovae explosions known as SWE storms, those being: geomag- external to our solar system. These particles netic storms, solar radiation storms, radio are trapped and directed by magnetic fields blackouts and ionospheric disturbances.16 A through interstellar space and can enter into brief description is provided in Table 1. These our solar system, potentially damaging space- events additionally lead to increased geomag- craft.15 netic activity, energy particle radiation and x- rays, which in turn have various impacts on human health and technologies, as further outlined in the following sections.

SWE event Description Geomagnetic storms are strong disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field that occur when CMEs or solar wind streams interact with the geomagnetic field. As a result of this interaction, the Earth’s magnetic field adjusts to this jolt of energy Geomagnetic and is altered. Storm Frequency: Most common during the solar maximum and during the declining phase, but can occur anytime during the solar cycle. Duration: From a few hours to a few days Solar radiation storm events occur when the near-Earth environment is im- mersed in large quantities of charged particles, primarily protons, which are accelerated by solar activity (solar flares). Solar radiation Frequency: Most common during the solar maximum years, but can occur at storm any stage of the solar cycle. Duration: Proportional to the magnitude of the solar eruption and received spectrum – from hours to a week. Radio blackouts are the consequence of solar flares causing enhanced electron densities that ionise the sun-side of the Earth- disrupting radio waves as they pass through this region. Radio black out Frequency: Very common – minor events occurring on average 2,000 times each (Solar Flares) solar cycle, most frequent during the peak years of the solar cycle, almost absent during solar minimum. Duration: Minutes to hours.

Table 1: Outline of SWE drivers (sources: adapted from Nation Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2015 and International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2010:15-20)

Each of the above-described SWE phenomena and ground-based sensors – in some instances (solar flares, CMEs, SEPs, GCRs) can have dif- from both, although in certain cases these ob- ferent effects on the interplanetary medium servations can only be made from space. Key (from the Sun to the Earth), the near-Earth areas of observation from space-borne and environment (magnetosphere-ionosphere- ground-based instruments include: solar ac- thermosphere), to impacts on the Earth itself. tivity, solar wind, space radiation, the geo- Accordingly, there are a number of additional magnetic environment, upper atmosphere factors, phenomenological and physical state, monitoring (ionosphere and thermosphere); that require observation in order to under- while space-based sensors can potentially ex- stand and model the space weather status. tract a wider array of, or more in-depth, ob- Monitoring of solar activity and the solar driv- servations within these areas, or on additional ers discussed above is of course essential, phenomena such as microparticles, which are however beyond this, further monitoring and observational data are necessary on a number of other SWE components from space-based

13 Zheng and Evans, 2014 15 Hapgood, 2010:8 14 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2012 16 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2014

ESPI Report 68 9 February 2019

difficult to observe from within Earth’s atmos- frequency and “not if but when” nature of such phere.17 Within these domains, specific meas- space weather events, within the same year of urements can be taken on SWE effects includ- 1989, additional solar flare events were expe- ing: geomagnetic storms, ionospheric scintil- rienced in August, March and October, as well lation, total electron content (TEC), aurora as a large-scale SEP event occurring in Octo- etc.18 The monitoring of and resultant data ber 198923. from these SWE effects is not only important A more recent major space weather event, and for SWE science and modelling, but the real- as such well observed and documented, oc- time or near real-time provision of such data curred at the end of October 2003 – often re- is crucial for forecasting and nowcasting SWE ferred to as the ‘Halloween event’. Although impacts– with each industry sector impacted weaker than the March 1989 event, the wealth having its own specific observational require- of data available provided “clear evidence that ments in terms of data products and services large geomagnetic storms can disrupt space- made available by space- and ground-based based navigation systems by inducing rapid sensors. and large changes in the morphology of the ionosphere and plasmasphere”.24 Only a few days later, the same region of the Sun that 2.1.3 SWE Impact caused the Halloween event produced the It is important to understand that, as a disci- largest observed X-ray solar flare since space pline, SW aims not only to scientifically study measurements began, however due to the phenomena involving ambient plasma, mag- Sun’s rotation in those few days Earth fortu- netic fields, electromagnetic radiation and en- nately experience a near-miss of a “Carring- ergetic charged particles in space, but also to ton-class CME as well as intense particle predict how all these phenomena can “influ- fluxes”.25 ence the functioning and reliability of space- The possibilities, frequencies and intensities of borne and ground-based systems and ser- such events should not be underestimated - vices, thereby potentially endangering human modern technological dependencies would health and wellbeing through impact on this have been catastrophically affected if such an 19 infrastructure.” occurrence had hit Earth. Indeed, in the cur- In recent history, there have been several rent state, modern society and its technologi- well-documented major space weather events cal reliance’s can be characterised as “a com- with tangible impacts. Whilst there has not plex interweave of dependencies and interde- been an episode on the same scale of the “Car- pendencies among its critical infrastructures” rington event” of 1859, since the emergence and as such the socioeconomic analysis of ex- of the space age, the largest geomagnetic treme space weather impacts must be inclu- storm of the modern era occurred in March sive of both “direct, industry specific effects 1989 and caused the collapse of Canada’s Hy- (such as power outages and spacecraft anom- dro-Quebec power grid20, leaving millions alies)” as well as “the collateral effects of without an electricity supply for up to 9 space-weather-driven technology failures on 26 hours.21 In addition to the outage in Quebec, dependent infrastructures and services”. A this storm damaged transformers in the UK graphic overview of these transversal and ple- and other countries, and caused “the loss of thoric impacts of space weather is presented positional knowledge for over 1,000 space ob- in Figure 1. jects for almost a week.22 To further clarify the

17 European Space Agency, 2013:18-21 22 Royal Academy of Engingeering, 2013 18 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 23 Guhathakurta, 2011 2018c 24 Royal Academy of Engingeering, 2013:18 19 European Space Agency, 2017a 25 Royal Academy of Engingeering, 2013:18 20 Pinheiro et al, 2016 26 National Research Council, 2008:12 21 National Research Council, 2008:3

ESPI Report 68 10 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Figure 1: The Impact of Space Weather: An Overview (credit: European Space Agency, 2018b27)

As evident from Figure 1, in today’s economy, tors reliant on precision positioning to func- a large number of sectors could potentially be tion28. The safety of astronauts could also be affected by SWE storms. These range from directly affected by space weather events, space-based telecommunications, broadcast- with additional risks to health indirectly posed ing, navigation and weather services, through by disruptions that might occur in human- to aviation, power distribution, and terrestrial space flight operations on Earth. communications, especially at northern lati- The effects of space weather could also have tudes. an impact on technological systems and hu- In the space environment, SWE can have det- man health on Earth; potentially affecting the rimental impacts on space technologies such electricity grid, pipelines, ground and ocean as satellites and spacecraft, damaging them transportation systems (e.g. road, rail and directly but also having a knock-on effect to maritime), aviation communication and con- the services they provide for Earth-based us- trol, air passenger and crew health, mobile tel- ers. Satellites, in particular, are interweaved ephones, and high frequency radio communi- into the network of critical infrastructure, par- cation systems.29 In this regard, extreme ticularly in the areas of communication and space weather events could disrupt a vast navigation systems, on which society is in- number of modern technological systems creasingly dependent. As such, disruptions to across a variety of industry sectors, the socio- these satellite services, for example the Gali- economic cost of which would be tremendous leo system, could have a serious impact on a if not effectively predicted and mitigated, plac- magnitude of sectors on Earth, affecting avia- ing great significance on space weather ser- tion, road transport, shipping, and other sec- vice provision before a major space weather event takes place.

27 European Space Agency, 2018b 28 European Space Agency, 2017a 29 Royal Academy of Engineering, 2013:5; Hapgood, 2010

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In the European context, it is estimated that a and solar radiation storm), could cost €14,971 single extreme space weather event (encom- M across a number of sectors (in 2016 eco- passing radio blackout, geomagnetic storm nomic conditions). See Table 2.

Domain 2016 (year 1) 2024 (year 9) 2032 (year 17)

Spacecraft design and - €912.9 M - €1,123.2 M - €1,389.4 M operations

Launch operations - €0.008 M - €0.037 M - €0.051 M

Aviation - €6,635.6 M - €11,139.8 M - €18,701.5 M

Resource exploitation - €197.5 M - €234.9 M - €279.5 M

Power system opera- - €5,630.5 M - €6,364 M - €7,195.2 M tors

Road & Transportation - €1,595.4 M - €1,783 M - €1,992.8 M

TOTAL - €14,971.9 M - €20,644.9 M - €29,558.4 M

Table 2: Statistics reported as NPVs over the period of 2016-2032 (source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016:2)

The exact socio-economic impact of SWE tors: e.g. air navigation on polar routes ex- events on different engineered and biological posed to space weather events; fleets of oper- systems depends on the intensity and duration ational satellites used for telecommunications, of an SWE event. NOAA has developed a scale broadcasting, observation or positioning; use for categorising geomagnetic storms, solar ra- of satellite-based navigation and timing sig- diation storms, and radio blackouts, which in- nals that are affected by ionospheric disturb- clude five levels of strength: extreme, severe, ances; electric power grids that are exposed strong, moderate, and minor. Each of these to geo-magnetically induced currents with po- levels is associated with a specific type of im- tentially disastrous cascading effects”.31 As a pact. An overview of these impacts is provided result, societal interest in SWE is developing, in Annex 1. stakeholders across the globe – ranging from scientists, emergency management agencies, The important point to highlight here is that as commercial airlines, satellite operators, pipe- dependency on space- and ground-based line designers, power grid operators, rail oper- technological systems increases, “the sensitiv- ators etc. – are becoming increasingly aware ity of our society and our economy to space of SWE services as they mature into their op- weather effects is expected to increase” and, erational phase. As science and society in- as such, within the overall European economy, creasingly recognise “the impacts of space each individual sector “has a need for specific weather on the infrastructure of the global space weather data and services, together economy, interest in, and dependence on, with a further requirement for those services space weather information and services grows to be tailored to their particular applications rapidly”.32 and uses”.30 SWE services can be defined as the final output of the transformation of space weather data and products into practical applications 2.2 Defining Space for specific customers to defend against the potentially harmful impacts of SWE. As the definition makes plain, it is important to make Weather Services a distinction between SWE data and products on the one hand, and SWE services on the Given the ever-growing dependence of con- other. Both draw on data (i.e. raw or pro- temporary societies on technologies that could cessed measurements of any space weather be impacted by space weather, there is a parameter), but whilst the former simply aim growing demand for operational space to describe a certain condition in the space en- weather services to safeguard vulnerable sec-

30 European Space Agency, 2017a 32 Schrijver et al., 2015:2747 31 World Meteorological Organisation, 2016:3

ESPI Report 68 12 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

vironment, SWE services are intended to ena- In this sense, reviews and forecasts “focus on ble specific users to take actions when adverse presenting analyses of current conditions and SWE might be occurring in order to minimize developing trends of space weather activities, the impacts on their systems and/or custom- such as solar X-ray flares, geomagnetic activ- ers. For example, an SWE product may pro- ity, solar proton events (SPEs), and the rela- vide information on the radiation risks associ- tivistic electrons in the radiation belts”; ated with a solar storm, while an SWE service whereas “event alerts are triggered and issued may be intended to enable airlines to modify automatically whenever the activity level of polar flights routes during the forecasted pe- solar, geomagnetic, or high-energy particles riod of SWE activity to protect their passen- reached threshold, which aims at notifying gers and crew. customers of space weather disruptions imme- diately”.34 As such, and similar to terrestrial weather, 2.2.1 SWE Service Categories SWE services can be categorised according to To add more depth to the definition, opera- the service timeframe, i.e. forecasts, nowcasts tional SWE services aim to “monitor, specify, and postcasts or hindcasts, as outlined in Fig- and forecast the space environment in order ure 2. to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space To better illustrate the distinction between weather services for domestic and interna- SWE products and services in relation to dif- tional customers” that can be presented in the ferent timeframes involved, some examples form of forecasts, current SWE status reviews, are provided in Table 3. as well as SWE event alerts as they happen.33

Figure 2: Services in relation to their timeframes (source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016)

Time Frame SWE Product SWE Service

11 years Solar activity cycle Forecast for satellite orbit planning

27 days Solar radio emissions Forecast for optimal radio-communication planning

1-3 days Solar x-rays Alert to power grid operations

30-60 minutes Geo-magnetic storms Warning to airline company on polar routes

Real-time Solar energetic protons Alarm to astronauts inside ISS

Table 3: Examples of services in relation to timeframes

33 Lui and Gong, 2015:599 34 Lui and Gong, 2015:599

ESPI Report 68 13 February 2019

Beyond this categorisation, SWE services can 2.2.2 Stakes for the delivery of be differentiated according to the two general components of significance to a service: the operational services source of funding and the operating body or organisation. Generally, both of these compo- Whereas SWE services are already used today nents fall into the categories of public, private, in several countries in various sectors (e.g. the or public-private models of services which, in commercial airlines, the satellite industry, themselves, can highlight the general purpose drilling and surveying operations, power grid of the service (e.g. a societal need or a market operators, pipeline designers and users of sat- demand). Variance in funding sources, and ellite-based navigation systems, etc.), it is an- providing groups of a service can have differ- ticipated that “this demand will expand with ent implications for the user, but the user, or broader awareness of the impact of space more broadly the demand side, can also dic- weather events, increasing exposure of the so- tate which type of service model might be best ciety, and greater maturity of space weather for them. To expand on this, a public model products and services” (WMO, 2016). Indeed, might suit a public demand or societal issue, a as dependency on space- and ground-based private model will certainly fixate on areas in technological systems increases along with the which demand will return profit, and joint pub- sensitivity of our society and our economy to lic-private models will most likely be utilised SWE, the stakes associated with the delivery for a service that is desirable for society whilst of SWE services will become higher. also having the ability to create revenue. While The majority of these stakes have been the majority of SWE services worldwide are framed in terms of direct and indirect socioec- managed under public models, being consid- onomic effects, primarily on technological in- ered non-excludable and non-rivalrous goods, frastructures and human health, caused by there are also instances of SWE services as SWE events. In the European context, the private goods. study conducted by ESA and PwC estimated In terms of service provision, one further dis- that ESA’s SWE programme services could tinction can be made between national and in- provide a net saving of €2,635 million in com- ternationally provided SWE services, both in parison to a “do nothing scenario”, which could terms of providers and end-users. In this cost -€13,135 million – from just a single ma- sense, services can be initiated, funded, and jor space weather event – across several sec- 35 ultimately provided by international organisa- tors (see Table 4). tions or frameworks, or national actors, or a combination of the two.

Do nothing sce- Value added of Cost/Benefit Do ESA scenario nario ESA Services User domain benefits Satellite operations - €283 M - €267 M €26 M Launch operations - €0.3 M - €0.1 M €0.2 M Resource exploitation - €327 M - €135 M €192 M Power grid operations - €5,771 M - €4,546 M €1,225 M Aviation - €3,312 M - €3,066 M €246 M Logistics/Road transport - €3,432 M - €2,888 M €544 M Investment benefits GDP impact None €952 M €952 M Total Benefits (b) - €13,135 M - €9,950 M €3,185 M Programme Costs (c) None - €529 M - €529 M Total Net Benefits - €13,135 M - €10,479 M €2,656 M Benefit / Cost ratio (b/c) 6

Table 4: Statistics reported as NPVs over the period of 2016-2032 (source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016:2)

Whilst the critical infrastructures and societal down into four distinct “macro categories” - ventures that space weather can potentially strategic, economic, societal, and environ- influence are vast, in many cases intertwined, mental domains - on which SWE services can and the complexity ought not be underesti- have positive effect.36 These are summarised mated – there are also wider stakes or incen- in Figure 3. tives for the delivery of operational SWE services. These qualitative benefits can be broken

35 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016 36 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016:15-17

ESPI Report 68 14 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Strategic Economic Societal Environmental • Stimulate advances in •Improve reliability of •Improved safety of •Reduced risk and faster basic and applied utilities European infrastructure recovery from spill-over research in critical •Improve design and and services (space from underwater oil areas operations of systems, human space wells •Development of end- spacecraft flight, aviation, •Reduced greenhouse to-end capability •Positive impact on transport, power gas emissions through •Increased autonomy European Economy systems...) improved logistics and with independent SWE •Support commercial •Improved safety of transport (e.g. alternate data gain forvarious human life (navigation, flight routes and •Equal partner in data industries and radiation environment) heights) exchange agreements businesses •Reduction of morbidity internationally •Enable opportuities for and mortality due to •Acheive greater commercial spin-offs prolonged electrical European cooperation blackouts •Access sensitive data •Reduced loss of time in road, rail and aviation transport

Figure 3: Stakes in SWE Service Delivery (source: adapted from Horne, 2001 and PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016)

2.3 SWE Service Ena- 2.3.1 Technological Enablers To provide timely and accurate space weather blers services and meet user requirements, there is a need for the continuous availability of SWE data from both ground- and space-based ob- The successful provision of any service re- servation systems as well as tools that process quires the fulfilment of three requirements raw data and turn them into timely and accu- that ensure its continuity, availability and sus- rate space weather information, nowcasts and tainability, namely: (i) structured demand; (ii) forecasts. reliable, affordable technology that is adapted to user needs; and (iii) structures that ensure both appropriate funding allocation and gener- a. Ground-Based Observations ation as well as adequate programmatic overview. In essence, this implies three distinct Many of the overall measurement parameters categories of operational service enablers – for SWE observation can be taken from the market, technological, and organisational en- ground - a study of the European SWE re- ablers. source network found that out of 222 observation sources, 99 were from ground seg- With specific respect to SWE services, the op- ments.37 Whilst there are certainly limitations, erationalisation of these services requires con- ground-based segments for SWE observation tinuity, availability and sustainability in: and data provision provide several ad- • The technological enablers for SWE obser- vantages: namely, that in comparison to vation and scientific understanding, data space-based (in-situ) systems they are rela- management, and communication; tively simple and inexpensive (avoiding associated costs with qualifying space instruments • An active market/user base requiring the and launch operations)38; they are flexible in identification of users and associated terms of upgrading and maintaining; they needs. come with reduced telemetry constraints and delays, increasing cadence of observation and • An organisational framework in which analysis capabilities, as well as being available SWE stakeholders operate through the in real-time; and limitations in observing time value chain in an interconnected and func- can be overcome by networks of observato- tional manner ries.39 Thus, for these reasons, ground-based

37 Hapgood, 2001 39 Veronig and Pötzi, 2016:4 38 Hapgood, 2001

ESPI Report 68 15 February 2019

segments serve as a preferential choice over The range of instruments that monitor SWE is space-based, however certain SWE observa- large and varied. The most important are sum- tion capabilities can only be conducted by, or marised in Table 5. have significant advantages from, in-situ space-based segments.

Instrument Description

Riometer instruments – Relative Ionospheric Opacity Meters – are ionospheric monitors that passively measure the strength of galactic radio noise, and Riometers through inference, the absorption of HF radio waves propagating above the riometer in the ionosphere. Ionosondes are also ionospheric monitors that measure the plasma constituting the ionosphere. To do this, Ionosondes “sound” the plasma by sending a spec- Ionosondes trum of radio pulses from the ground and measure the time taking from the pulse to return after reflecting from a particular ionospheric layer. Magnetometers measure the strength and direction of the local magnetic field. Magnetometers They can be static or mobile, ground-based or located above on satellite platforms. Neutron monitors are based on the ground and count the number of neutrons passing through the instrument. They measure the highest energy charged par- Neutron Monitors ticles in the atmosphere, allowing for monitoring of the near-Earth Radiation environment. Radio telescopes are used to monitor the solar radio emissions passing through Radio Telescopes the ionosphere. Solar activity, specifically solar flares, can emit bursts of radio frequency, which can be disruptive to certain GPS/GNSS systems. Optical telescopes are used to monitor the sun in order to view solar activity – Optical Tele- i.e. eruptions magnetic field activity, sunspots and coronal holes – in various scopes wavelengths respective to the activity that is to be observed.

Table 5: Instruments used for SWE measurements (source: adapted from International Civil Aviation Organization, 2010)

Examples of European and international ob- (see Table 6 below). These observatories and servatories and instrument networks are observational instruments tend to work within shown in Table 8. Within the European con- networks, both pan-European (EISCAT and text, there is already a wealth of activity in re- THEMIS) and internationally (INTERMAGNET gards to ground-based SWE observation, con- and SuperDARN), to produce collective and in- ducting a variety of types of SWE measure- teroperable observational data products. ments from several European observatories

ESPI Report 68 16 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Observatory/Network Details Type of Observation Global High Resolution A network of observatories comprising the Solar images in various H-alpha Network Big Bear Solar Observatory (USA), the wavelengths Kanzelhöhe Solar Observatory (Austria), and the Yunnan Astronomical Observatory (China)40 Global Oscillation Network A network of six solar observatories: Conducting detailed stud- Group (GONG) Teide Observatory (Canary Islands), the ies on the solar internal Learmonth Solar Observatory (Western structure and dynamics Australia), the Big Bear Solar Observatory using helioseismology41 (California), the Mauna Loa Solar Obser- vatory (Hawaii), the Udaipur Solar Obser- vatory (India) and the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory (Chile) Dominion Radio Astro- Operating, designing and development of Solar radio wave spectrum physical Observatory telescopes of varying wavelengths (DRAO)42 Compound Astronomical A worldwide radio-spectrograph network Solar radio bursts Low-cost Low-frequency with 24/7 monitoring. A list of the Callisto Instrument for Spectros- instruments /observatories and their re- copy and Transportable spective countries is on their website.43 Observatory (e-Callisto) Real-time Neutron Monitor A database collected from 18 neutron Cosmic ray neutron flux on Database (NMDB)44 monitors across the globe the Earth’s surface International Real-time A global network of observatories moni- Vector magnetic field Magnetic Observatory toring the Earth’s magnetic field. A list of (Magnetograms at Earth's Network participating observatories and their re- surface) (INTERMAGNET)45 spective countries is provided on the INTERMAGNET website46 Super Dual Auroral Radar A global network of ground-based coher- Primarily measuring Network (SuperDARN) ent-scatter radars operating in high-fre- plasma convection in the quency47 ionosphere, also has wider uses for studying other magnetospheric and ionospheric phenomena European Incoherent Scientific association with member institu- Atmospheric and iono- SCATer Scientific Associa- tions from Finland, Norway and Sweden, spheric observations, e.g. tion (EISCAT)48 using radars to conduct observations. the effects of the aurora borealis European Digital Upper A pan-European digital data collection for Upper atmospheric/iono- Atmosphere Server forecasting and nowcasting purposes49 spheric conditions Global Muon Detector An international muon space weather tel- CME detection through Network (GMDN) escope network: Germany, Japan, Aus- cosmic ray anisotropy pre- tralia, Brazil, Kuwait, USA cursors

Table 6: European and International ground-based observatories and instrument networks (source: European Space Agency, 2018b

40 Steinegger et al., 2000 41 Armet, 2017 42 Government of Canada National Research Council, 2017 43 Russu et al., 2015 44 Mavromichalaki et al., 2011 45 INTERMAGNET, 2018 46 INTERMAGNET, 2017 47 Chisham et al., 2007 48 European Incoherent SCATer Scientific Association, 2018 49 Belehaki et al., 2005

ESPI Report 68 17 February 2019

have increased performance through in-situ b. Space-Based Observations measurements over those taken from the ground in: To obtain all the necessary, accurate, real- time data needed for future SWE warning ser- • Practicability, e.g. ground-based solar UV vices, data from space-based instruments are and X ray images are impossible because essential. While the baseline working approach of atmospheric absorption. Such observa- for many SWE sensors operators is to collect tions must be space-based. as much of the required measurement data • High quality, e.g. coronagraph images of using ground-based instruments as possible, coronal mass ejections are much clearer ground-based systems, as mentioned, can when taken in space because of the ab- have observational limitations. As such, sence of stray light from atmospheric space-based measurements are necessary to scattering (indeed CMEs were not recog- sufficiently meet the whole range of observa- nised prior to their observation with the tional requirements. The main reason for this Skylab coronagraph).51 the effects of the magnetosphere and atmosphere surrounding the Earth, respectively de- The most typical and widely used instruments flecting solar wind and charged particles as for space-based SWE observations are out- well as filtering out electromagnetic radia- lined in Table 7. tion50. As an example, space observations

Instrument Description

Magnetometers Space-based magnetometers function to measure the magnetic fields of planetary bodies, Interplanetary Magnetic Field, and for navigational uses. X-ray Instruments Used in SWE applications to mainly observe the Sun and its active phenomena, covering wavelengths from 10-0.01 nm Plasma Instruments The purpose of plasma instruments is to observe a variety of metrics regarding space-born plasma, including electron and ion density, temperature, and velocity. Electric Field Measurement Devices These devices are used to study the plasma environment – i.e. take measurements of electric field and density. Mass Spectrometers Mass spectrometers are used to determine the mass of atoms or molecules in any given sample – current devices generally include an ion source, a mass analyser and a detector. Electrostatic Analysers Electrostatic analysers are devices used to measure charged particle energy distributions – e.g. electron or ions.

Table 7: Space-based SWE observation instruments (source: Peitso, 2013:20-24)

Space-based observations can be categorised and cubesats53. Remote sensing observation, into two distinct types of SWE measurements on the other hand, aims to boost forecasting - in-situ observation systems and remote and nowcasting capabilities by directly moni- sensing. In-situ technologies observe the re- toring solar activity outside of the magneto- sultant effects of solar activity on the near- sphere, i.e. the solar corona and free solar Earth environment from within the magneto- wind.54 Some of the prominent European and sphere; these include “hosted payload instru- international SWE missions and instruments ments”, or “hitchhikers52” flown on spacecraft are shown, as examples, in Table 8. (increasing economic efficiency), small-sats,

50 European Space Agency, 2017b 53 European Space Agency, 2017b 51 Hapgood, 2001 54 European Space Agency, 2017b 52 Hapgood, 2001

ESPI Report 68 18 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Mission/Satellite Details Type of Observation Solar and Hemispheric Ob- • NASA and ESA Studying the internal structure of servatory (SOHO)55 • Launched in 1995 the Sun, the Sun’s outer atmosphere, and the origin of solar wind Advanced Composition Ex- • NASA Observing particles of solar, inter- plorer (ACE)56 • Launched in 1997 planetary, interstellar, and galactic origins, spanning the energy range from solar wind ions to galactic cosmic ray nuclei57 Cluster • ESA To observe small-scale structures of • Launched in 2000 (four the magnetosphere and its environ- satellites) ment in three dimensions58 Double Star • CNSA and ESA Investigating the effects of the Sun • Launched in 2003 and on the Earth’s magnetosphere 2004 (two satellites) Solar Terrestrial Relations • NASA Stereoscopic measurements of the Observatory (STEREO)59 • Launched in 2006 sun and SWE phenomena (e.g. CMEs) Deep Space Climate Obser- • NOAA Monitoring CMEs and solar wind vatory (DSCVR) • Launched in 2015

Table 8: European and International space-based observatories and instrument networks

Figure 4: Importance of SWE modelling in the supply chain (source: Shaw, 2001)

55 Garner, 2017 56 Christian and Davis, 2017 57 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2016a 58 European Space Agency, 2005 59 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2017

ESPI Report 68 19 February 2019

identification, sectorial analysis of user re- c. Software Enablers quirements, and essentially a functional service product that fulfils user needs, which also An important component for the provision of demands adequate processes for user feed- SWE services is the software that makes them back. possible. As made visible through the technological enablers, there is a multitude of differ- The first step is to promote the use of SWE ent missions and observational technologies services among potential user communities. (ground- and space-based), which record an Actions need to reach, inform, and educate even larger variety of types of data. This re- new user communities to increase their under- quires compatibility of these technologies, ad- standing of how SWE services can address equate data management, storage, and pro- their needs. Given the transversal impact of cessing techniques. In addition, techniques of SWE events, and the growing demand for turning the available SWE data and infor- SWE data products, there are several well-de- mation into reliable models rely heavily on ef- fined service domains in which SWE services fective software. Data assimilation into models can be of use. The identification of these do- is indeed a central activity for the successful mains can be directly derived from the general provision of SWE services, as outlined in Fig- areas of impact of SWE presented in Section ure 4. 2.1. A graphic illustration is presented in Fig- ure 5. Accordingly, the provision of predictive and forecasting services depends on accurate As evident from Figure 5, two macro-catego- modelling systems that need to take into ac- ries of domains can be identified: those rele- count a plethora of factors, and be continu- vant to space operations: spacecraft design, ously updated as novel data and insights spacecraft operation, human space flight, emerge. From the perspective of users, who launch operation – and those concerning expect forecasts, alarms, warnings etc., there ground operations: aviation, rail, resource ex- is a need for appropriate systems and inter- ploitation, power grid operation, pipeline oper- faces with which to communicate such infor- ation, and auroral tourism. Several space and mation, often through visual means of graph- non-space operations (e.g. satellite using sat- ical presentation. com links, transport and finance), can be impacted either directly or indirectly, as a result In the European context, SWE data from ESA of their reliance on space assets. missions is processed and stored at the SWE Data Centre at ESA Redu, Belgium. From here, Appendix 3 will detail SWE impacts on various the “calibrated and verified measurement data service domains, addressing the aspects of will then be disseminated in near-real-time to user identification, the potential benefits for the teams in the Space Weather Service Net- each sector, and the technological systems work for further processing, validation and uti- needed to fulfil them. lisation in in customer/end-user applications and services”60 Beyond this, the provision of Once users are identified, the second objective SWE services to users requires appropriate is to establish an effective platform for dia- software that makes such SWE data products logue between the service providers and users accessible, presentable and intelligible, and of- in order to gauge their needs. This task has ten in real-time scenarios, in the form of user become central in the actions of many space interface platforms – e.g. the ESA SSA Space agencies worldwide, as well as in the work of Weather Service Network, with individual Ex- several international organisations (e.g. ICAO pert Service Centres designed for specific cus- and the WMO). Also in the European context tomers.6162 there are already a number of publications on the relation between user identification and relative requirements, and the technological system requirements needed to meet de- 2.3.2 Market Enablers mand63. A succinct overview of SWE services’ For sustainable and successful SWE services to end users and their relative requirements is be available, it is essential that there be a sta- provided in Table 9. ble user base across multiple sectors. This requires sufficiently designed processes for user

60 European Space Agency, 2017b 63 Horne, 2001; European Space Agency, 2011; European 61 European Space Agency, 2018c Space Agency, 2013 62 European Space Agency, 2018d

ESPI Report 68 20 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

SST services

Telecom Spacecraft Design Satellite Broadcasting Spacecraft Operations Space Systems Weather Forecast Launch Operations Transport/Logistics Human Spaceflight Finance SW Service Domains Aviation

Energy Systems Operations

Non-space Systems Railways

Resource exploitation

Auroral Tourism

Figure 5: SWE Services Domains (sectors impacted indirectly in green)

Domain End Users Requirements Spacecraft Design • Personnel involved in • Prevent over-design generating space envi- • Establish common design standards ronment specifications for • More reliable satellite operations the design of spacecraft • Achieve longer design life • Identify risks due to new technology Spacecraft Operations • Flight Control Teams and • Reduce risk of anomalies and failures operations support teams • More reliable service provision of European and national • Reduction in lost revenue space agencies. • Extended satellite lifetime • Public and private space- • More competitive service craft operators. • Better planning for orbit manoeuvres • Reduced risk of uncontrolled re-entry • Better station keeping • Conservation of fuel • Reduce risk of collision damage with debris • Continuity and reliability of service Human space flight • Operations teams for hu- • Optimisation of launch procedures man spaceflight including • Reduced radiation dose to astronauts during launch, activities • Cost savings inside and outside of the ISS. • Future space tourism flight operators and future human missions in outer space. Launch operation • Personnel involved in • Optimisation of launch procedures launch operation of space • Cost savings agencies and European entities operating launchers

ESPI Report 68 21 February 2019

Space Surveillance • Personnel involved in the • Adequate modelling of the geospace en- and Tracking Space Surveillance and vironment Tracking segment of the • Improved precision of SST methods SSA system. • Prevention of damage to space systems • Increased awareness and understanding of re-entry events. Electrical Power Grids • Power grid operators • Better service continuity • Minimise lost revenue due to down time • Reduced risk of transformer damage • Better planning of generating capacity, identify system behaviour, and identify total risk • Identify links to space weather Aviation • Commercial airline com- • Optimisation of flight-paths panies • Reduced radiation exposure to aircrew • Aircraft manufacturers and passengers • Compliance with legislation • Reduced cost of having to re-schedule aircrew • Increased flight safety Railways Railway Operators • Increased safety of signalling and train control • Reduced cost of delays Pipeline Operators Pipeline Operators • Improving the management and lifetime of pipelines Resource Exploitation Geophysical Resource sur- • Better planning of aerial surveying veyors and extractors • Reduced loss of revenue due to corrupt data • Reduced interruptions to drilling operations Reduced loss of revenue due to errors in navigating drill heads. Auroral Tourism Tourism companies and com- • Enables predictions of the aurora mercial airlines • Development of tourist market

Table 9: Overview of SWE service domains, users, and requirements

Whereas identifying customers and customers’ • Commercial entities needs is a crucial step towards creating effec- • Public civil authorities tive SWE services, it is also clear that different customers have different needs. Therefore, a • Military authorities third enabling step is to address the segmen- tation of market demand, and the likely pres- On the basis of these types of users, and in ence of common requirements, by federating relation to the domains described above, sev- demand. This step consists of aggregating eral high-level requirements for user needs 64 fragmented user communities and leading have been outlined, namely: them to expressing common requirements. It • Provision of comprehensive knowledge, is a difficult exercise, especially because user understanding and maintained awareness communities making use of SWE services are of the natural space environment and not homogenous, comprising both civil and space weather; military users, ranging from satellite operators to airline companies, and power grid opera- • The detection and forecasting of space tors. weather and its effects; Within the European context, three broad cat- • The detection and understanding of inter- egories of users can be identified for SWE ser- ferences due to space weather; vices: • The prediction and/or detection of permanent or temporary disruption of mission

64 European Space Agency, 2011:14; European Space Agency, 2013:24

ESPI Report 68 22 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

and/or service capabilities due to space Weather Study led by the Rutherford Appleton weather; Laboratory (RAL), for instance, a set of general requirements that describe what a space • The monitoring of the Sun, the solar wind, weather service must deliver has been cre- the radiation belts, the magnetosphere ated, together with the basic functionality that and ionosphere to the extent that it sup- should be associated with each user require- ports services related to effects that in- ment (see Table 10). clude radiation and spacecraft charging hazards, spacecraft drag, ionospheric per- In addition to all these steps, market factors turbations, aircraft radiation hazards, ge- dependent on the typology of service (i.e. how omagnetic disturbances, and current in- the user or customer receives or pays for a duced in large conductive networks such service) need to be reflected within the organ- as power lines and pipelines; isational elements of service development and provision, allowing for continued reinvestment • The provision of all required predicted lo- in the development of new services and the cal spacecraft and launcher radiation, procurement of new technologies. Irrespective plasma and electromagnetic environment of whether the source of funding is private or data. public, the capacity to monetise such services From these high-level user requirements, a set requires investigation, especially within the of system requirements then needs to be de- European context where clear cases for public rived by the stakeholders involved in the pro- good SWE services have been made. vision of SWE services. In the ESA Space

User Requirement Service Function Element Networked and reliable data access Timely and reliable data from multiple sources Retrieval scheduler On-line help Good documentation of system and data Comprehensive metadata Human support Generic, comprehensive and accessible data output Consistent interface with multiple datasets format Data dictionary Easy to identify relevant datasets Yellow pages system Data aggregation Access to enhanced products Models and forecasts Access to past data A local archive of relevant data Personalised regular data retrieval User accounts with personal profiles Access to informed advice and scientific tech- Technically and scientifically competent personnel nical supports

Background information on science and impart On-line introduction to space weather of space weather Outreach materials Graphical presentation Graphics engine Regular service monitoring Continuous service development User feedback facilities Medium to long-term strategy

Table 10: User requirements and service functions (source: Hapgood, 2001)

ESPI Report 68 23 February 2019

Towards this, well-defined relations, and even synergies, between different stakeholders are 2.3.3 Organisational Enablers critical. As outlined in Section 2, there are dif- To enable the successful delivery of opera- ferent categories of stakeholders across the tional services, the availability and continuity supply-demand value chain of any operational of SWE data and services should be secured, service delivery; in the context of SWE ser- and sustainable governance and funding of the vices these have been summarised in Figure services should be set up. 6.

SWE Sensors & SWE sensors & SWE main SWE value SWE users centres dara centres service added service "affected manufacturers operators provider providers industry"

• Sensors design, develop • Sensor operators • Conduct research of • Perform further spe- • Take informed deci- & manufacturing/ready - Operate satellite, per- solar and terrestrial cialist data analysis sion to apply/not apply for use form TT&C physics • Tailor info/data to an operation mitiga- - Manufacture L! Satel- - Magnetometer mainte- • Develop techniques for meet specific user tion measure lite and its ground nance, etc. forecasting needs • Conduct post-storm segment - (…) • Analyse data to trans- • Develop handbooks for analysis on its assets - Launch L1 Satellite • Data Centre operator late into valuable in- users protection • Acquire knowledge to - Manufacture Magne- - Data tasking and ac- formation • Develop verification modify ops measure tometers etc. quisition • Elaborate daily space tests procedures • Acquire knowledge to • Data Centre develop, - Data processing and weather bulletins • Develop algorithms feed SWE user re- build archiving • Issue warnings and and SW tools quirements - Build centre real es- - (…) alerts • Provide forecast ser- • (…) tate • Distribute analysed vices - Design, develop com- data • (…) puter/SW/database • (…) - (…) • Service centres - Build centre - (…) Figure 6: SWE Service Value Chain (source: adapted from PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016)

The relations between the different stakehold- increased international coordination in “both ers can be based on varying organisational ar- resilience analysis and scientific research with chitectures characterised by different degrees a view to improving future space weather ser- of government or commercial ownership, and vices and impact mitigation”.67 different degrees of international cooperation. However, different mechanisms for action on The need for international cooperation on SWE SWE issues can take varying forms depending service provision is most apparent because of on the typology of service that is being devel- its indiscriminate global-reaching impacts, ex- oped – i.e. national or international, public or acerbated by the dual effects felt on both commercial services. The most prominent ex- ground- and space-based infrastructures, and ample of contrasting models for such services even more so as global reliance on these in- is clear when looking at the U.S. SWE service tertwined infrastructures increases; “even setting, where there exist both public typolo- temporary loss of services from global naviga- gies of services (functioning under an tion satellite systems (GNSS) would have an open/free data policy for users) and private impact on numerous transportation sectors ones (provided by private companies on a sub- and potentially the global financial system, scription basis to specific customers). Addi- which relies on accurate timing”.65 Accord- tionally, it is still the case in the U.S. that pub- ingly, UN COPUOS has expressed that “effec- lic entities such as the NOAA Space Weather tive progress in advancing space weather ser- Prediction Centre (NOAA SWPC) provide both vices requires coordinated global actions that national typologies of services (e.g. alerts and will serve to focus efforts on the needed fore- warnings communicated to U.S. government casting, monitoring and awareness raising agencies and infrastructure operators in case with the goal of protecting life, property and of SWE events)68 and international services – critical infrastructure”.66 This, of course, re- e.g. the global SWE services to be provided quires not only political will but also mecha- under the ICAO framework to the aviation sec- nisms for cooperation from the international tor (see Chapter 3 for a more detailed over- community through international entities, with view).

65 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 67 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017a:2 Outer Space, 2017a:3 66 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 68 Krausmann et al., 2016:10 Outer Space, 2017a:3-5

ESPI Report 68 24 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

3. European and International Efforts in SWE

was that “the coordination and development of Space Weather services would enhance the efficiency of these activities and provide new op- 3.1 The European Ar- portunities for the use of resources across domains that are currently separated from each chitecture for SWE other”. 69 Following the conclusion of the two feasibility Services studies, the SWWT continued to play an active role in advising ESA on the space weather strategy, acting as an open forum for discus- 3.1.1 Background: From National sion amongst the European space weather community, and promoting coordinated Euro- to Pan-European Efforts pean space weather activities at both national and industry levels. One of the recommenda- Over the past decades there have been in- tions made by the SWWT was to apply for an creasing efforts to establish SWE as a disci- action targeting Space Weather science under pline in Europe. While these have been primar- the umbrella of the European Cooperation in ily led by national institutions of most Euro- Science and Technology (COST), an intergov- pean member states (an overview of which is ernmental framework for supporting the coor- provided in Annex A.4), pan-European ap- dination of nationally funded research at a Eu- proaches have progressively been devised. ropean level. A first European round table on Space Weather Under COST, two actions were started to de- was organised by ESA in 1996 with the goal of velop an interdisciplinary network among Eu- investigating options for a European counter- ropean scientists and researchers in the field part to the US National Space Weather Pro- of SWE: gramme. Two years later ESTEC launched the first Space Weather workshop for furthering • COST 724 (running from November 2003 perspectives on a coordinated effort in the to November 2007)70 field of Space Weather. Since then, ESTEC has • COST ES0803 (running from June 2008 to maintained a key role in structuring this scien- November 2012)71 tific field in Europe, primarily by organising annual workshops from 1998 to 2003. During the The main objective of COST 724 was to “de- same period, it financed a feasibility study on velop further within a European framework the a European Space Weather Programme. To science underpinning space weather applica- conduct the study, two international consortia tions, as well as exploring methods for provid- were appointed and a Space Weather Working ing a comprehensive range of space weather Team (SWWT) was created to coordinate their services to a variety of users, based on mod- work. elling and monitoring of the sun-Earth system”72. The main motivation and benefit of es- The two studies, published in 2001, clearly de- tablishing a European Space Weather pro- termined that Europe had very strong assets gramme was highlighted as providing organi- in the physics and effects of Space Weather sations at risk of SWE impacts with a resource that could potentially be exploited in European or International SWE services. While they proposed several strategies to progress SWE activities in Europe, the baseline assessment

69 Lilensten, 2008 71 European Cooperation in Science and Technology, 2008 70 European Cooperation in Science and Technology, 2002 72 European Cooperation in Science and Technology, 2002

ESPI Report 68 25 February 2019

to allow them to manage such risks through a • Determine and recommend the specifica- system with traceable quality standards73. tions for new products and services that best meet the user's requirements.76 At the time, there was a distinct user reliance on SWE information provided by the U.S. In this context, Europe had a very strong basis Space Environment Centre (SEC), and so to of scientific research on the physics and effects provide a counterpart to the activity within the of SWE, however its optimal use was limited USA, the Action set out and agreed upon a Eu- by a lack of coordination between national re- ropean definition of SWE, and a number of search programmes77. Accordingly, the pri- general aims: mary goal of this Action sought to address this issue, and was accompanied by more specified • To coordinate European research into secondary objectives:78 modelling and prediction of space weather; • Cross-disciplinary collaboration of Geo- space researchers with biologists, physi- • To promote where necessary the deploy- cians, engineers and economists, to form ment of new instrumentation to satisfy an interdisciplinary network for the more data requirements, and the development efficient study and modelling of the space of new models; weather effects on technological and bio- • To educate potential users of space logical systems and to explore how space weather data; weather effects can interact with the economic behaviour of key infrastructures • To gather feedback from users which may such as power grids be used to improve services; • Stimulation of development and delivery • To create a forum for exchanging “best of reliable computer codes for predicting practice” among users and providers of key Space Weather parameters space weather services; • Further development of partially existing • To set standards on data exchange. links between the space weather research This action included four Working groups to community, space weather service pro- achieve its aims. Working Group 4 (WG4) was viders and space weather service users to explicitly on Space Weather Observations and their mutual benefits Services and was tasked with implementing • Efforts to launch a new European Journal the basis of the European Space Weather Net- on Space Weather in collaboration with work; coordinating the network of data, mod- the European Geosciences Union els, prediction, public outreach, developing methods and standards for coupling varying • Training, through organisation of dedi- SWE models, and disseminating information to cated courses, of young researchers and users.74 post graduate students COST Action ES0803 on Developing Space • Raise public awareness through targeted Weather Products and Services in Europe had outreach and education activities the primary objective of fostering “an interdis- Action 803 had a number of intended societal, ciplinary network between European scientists scientific and technological benefits in devel- dealing with different issues of Geospace, as oping collaboration, coordination and well as warning system developers and opera- strengthening the SWE research community tors”75 in order to: within Europe – i.e. establishing a network for • Foster the ties between European Geo- coordination of research and applications space research and space technology es- amongst European researchers, and creating tablishments, closer links between the SWE research community and SWE impacted industries within • Assess the European potential in ad- Europe – as well as recommending and im- vanced Space Weather observational and proving on validation of SWE models, ulti- modelling techniques and in reliable prod- mately the quality of SWE services, and in- ucts and services, creasing public awareness on SWE issues79. • Define the needs of a broad range of users Importantly, these two notable Actions under and, COST also induced the EU and ESA to take a more integrated and pro-active role in the field

73 European Cooperation in Science and Technology, 2002 76 Ibid. 74 European Cooperation in Science and Technology, 77 Ibid. 2002a:11 78 Crosby, 2010 75 Belehaki, 2010 79 European Cooperation in Science and Technology, 2008

ESPI Report 68 26 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

of SWE, which has essentially increased Euro- • evolving requirements of European end- pean capacity in SWE research and applica- users and infrastructure providers”.81 tions since 2003. In addition to the SWWT and COST, it is also important to acknowledge the role played by 3.1.2 European Space Agency the recently established “European Space Building on the recognition that Europe as a Weather Assessment and Consolidation Work- whole had matured “a wealth of expertise and ing Group” within the European Space Science assets providing high-quality scientific data Committee (ESSC).80 Consistent with ESSC’s and, in some cases, space weather ‘products’ mandate to deliver independent scientific ad- to a wide variety of customers”, but that these vice to ESA, the European Commission, Euro- capabilities remained “largely fragmented pean national space agencies, and other deci- across national and institutional bounda- sion-makers on space matters, this new Work- ries”82, the European Space Agency (ESA) was ing Group (chaired by Hermann Opgenoorth, mandated by its Member States to initiate ef- IRF, Sweden) aims to prepare detailed recom- forts in the field with the aim of avoiding du- mendations for a consolidated and strategic plication of efforts, federating the existing as- European approach to SWE, within which iden- sets, and ensuring the timely dissemination of tifying the appropriate efforts and investments reliable services for customers. that need to occur in all parts of the so-called SWE “progress iteration loop”, which is “de- Since 2008, ESA’s SWE activities have been fined by: undertaken as part of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme (see Box 1 for • new science understanding an overview of this programme). • the improved potential to deliver SWE products (based on the most recent science findings)

Box 1: ESA SSA Programme ESA’s SSA programme was first approved in 2008 and implemented as an ESA optional programme with financial contributions from 19 Member States.83 The programme was funded at approx. €240 million for the period 2009-2020 and has been executed in periods, namely: • Period 1 decided at MC in November 2008 and running from 2009 to 2012 • Period 2 decided at MC in November 2012 and running from 2012 to 2016 • Period 3 decided at MC in November 2016 and running from 2017 to 2019.

The overarching objective is “to support Europe's independent utilisation of, and access to, space through the provision of timely and accurate information and data regarding the space environment, and particularly regarding hazards to infrastructure in orbit and on the ground”.84 Ultimately, the SSA programme intends to “enable Europe to autonomously detect, predict and assess the risk to life and property due to man-made space debris objects, re-entries, in-orbit explosions, in-orbit collisions, disruption of missions and satellite-based service capabilities, potential impacts of Near- Earth Objects (NEOs), and the effects of space weather phenomena on space- and ground-based infrastructure”85

The programme comprises three major segments: • Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) for detecting active and inactive satellites, discarded launch stages and fragmentation debris orbiting Earth • Space Weather (SWE), for watching and predicting the state of the Sun and the interplanetary and planetary environments, including Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere, which can affect space-borne and ground-based infrastructure thereby endangering human safety • Near-Earth Objects (NEO), for watching natural objects that could potentially impact Earth and assessing their impact risk and potential mitigation measures.86

80 European Space Science Committee, 2018 83 European Space Agency, 2018f 81 http://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/ssbsite/doc- 84 European Space Agency, 2018e uments/webpage/ssb_182864.pdf 85 Ibid. 82 European Space Agency, 2018e 86 European Space Agency, 2018f

ESPI Report 68 27 February 2019

Within ESA’s SSA programme, the major focus Council of 2016 (Figure 7) and at the partici- is on SWE-related activities, as evident when pation of ESA Member States in the various looking at the breakdown of the financial en- SSA segments (Table 11). velope agreed upon at the ESA Ministerial

SSA Financial Envelope (2016 e.c.)

SST segment 16% L1/5 Mission 27%

NEO segment 16%

SWE segment 41%

Figure 7: SSA Budget Breakdown (source: Space Weather Working Team, 2016)

Of the €187 M allocated at the M/C 2016, 68% programme, with the UK, Germany and Italy (€ 127 M) was devoted to SWE-related activi- being the top three contributors. Of these 19 ties (€76 M for the SWE segment and + €51 M participating states, 17 have invested in the for the preparation of the Lagrange mission). SWE segments, 11 in the SST segment, 10 in the NEO segment, and 7 in the L1/L5 mission Currently, the large majority of ESA Member preparation. States (19 out of 22) participate in the SSA

SWE NEO SST L1/L5 Austria X X X X Belgium X - - - Czech Republic X X X X Denmark X Finland X X X - France X - - - Germany X X X X Greece Italy X X X - Luxembourg X X Netherlands X Norway X - X - Poland X X X Portugal Romania X X X X Spain X X Sweden X - X X Switzerland X X X X United Kingdom X X X X

ESPI Report 68 28 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Table 11: SSA Programme Status Priorities of Member States (source: Bobrinsky, 2017)

Within the SSA programme, the stated objec- • The SSA Space Weather Coordination tive of the Space Weather Segment is “to pro- Centre (SSCC) vide owners and operators of critical space- • The Expert Service Centres (ESCs) borne and ground-based infrastructure timely and accurate information to enable mitigation • The SWE Data Centre (SDC) of the adverse impacts of space weather”. 87 In order to achieve this objective, ESA has The SSCC, located at the Space Pole in Bel- been federating existing assets and capabili- gium, coordinates the provision of SWE data ties into a unified space weather network for and services that are available at the SWE the delivery of space-weather applications tai- Data Centre or at federated sites. The SSCC lored to European user needs. The ultimate has also set up a “European Space Weather objective of the network is to “enable end-us- Helpdesk”, where operators provide first-level ers in a wide range of affected sectors to mit- user support and answer questions about igate the effects of space weather on their sys- space weather conditions in general or the 89 tems, reducing costs and improving reliabil- SWE precursor service network. ity”88 ESA SWE data and products are gathered under the themes of Solar Weather, Space Radi- SWE Segment Infrastructure and ation, Ionospheric Weather, Geomagnetic Conditions and Heliospheric Weather, and pro- Organisation vided through the work of the five Expert Ser- vice Centres (ESCs). Each ESC consists of a ESA has not set up its own SWE centre but distributed group of experts from organisa- coordinates a virtual network of SWE service tions across Europe who collaborate to provide centres in various ESA member states. At pre- tailored data, products and/or expertise and sent, ESA’s Space Weather Service Network is services for Space Weather Network custom- organised around three major elements, ers.90 The five ESCs are organised according namely: to the above-mentioned domains, each having a coordinating institute (see Table 12):

ECS Thematic Coordinating Institute Function Priority Solar Weather Royal Observatory of Belgium Monitor and forecast solar activity from beneath Brussels, Belgium the solar surface into the corona, and events and processes that drive space weather in our solar system Space Radiation Royal Belgian Institute for Monitors and forecasts space particle radiation Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB) (ambient plasma, solar energetic particles, radia- Brussels, Belgium tion belts, galactic cosmic rays), micron-size par- ticulates from meteoroids and space debris as well as all types of resulting effects on technologies and biological systems Geomagnetic Con- Tromsø Geophysical Observa- Monitor and forecast varying conditions in the ditions tory (TGO), Earth's magnetosphere, on various timescales, Tromsø, Norway which may lead to induced currents generated in power distribution systems or long pipelines, disrupt magnetic surveying, and influence resource exploitation Ionospheric DLR Ionosphere Monitoring Monitor and forecast ionospheric and upper atmos- Weather and Prediction Centre (IMPC), pheric conditions, in particular the disturbances re- Neustrelitz, Germany sulting from solar and geomagnetic activity that may impact radio signal propagation or lead to increased satellite drag Heliospheric STFC RAL Space, Harwell, UK Monitor and forecast changing conditions in inter- Weather planetary space that may lead to disturbances in

87 European Space Agency, 2018g 89 European Space Agency, 2018h 88 European Space Agency, 2018h 90 European Space Agency, 2018i

ESPI Report 68 29 February 2019

space weather conditions at Earth and at other locations in the heliosphere

Table 12: ESCs and their respective coordinating institutes and functions (source: European Space Agency, 2018i)

As shown in the SSA Space Weather Network A more detailed account of the expert groups Service Product Catalogue Summary of 2018, affiliated with the five ESCs, and of the related SWE products are classified according to the data products, is provided in Annex 2. ESCs and Expert Group. The different ESCs The third major element supporting ESA's and contributing number of Expert Groups cur- Space Weather Network is the SWE data cen- rently providing SWE data products are sum- tre hosted at ESA's European Space Security marised in Table 13. and Education Centre in Redu, Belgium. The centre functions as a large data repository col- Number of Number of lecting data from the five ESCs, federated data SWE data Expert archives, and collaborating sensors systems. products Groups It also hosts and provides access to the ESA Space Weather Service Network portal.91 Solar 26 5 Weather As a whole, ESA’s Space Weather service network has been organised to provide a variety Space Radia- 32 9 of services distributed over 8 service domains tion targeting its specific groups of end users. The Heliospheric service domains and relative services are illus- 15 5 Weather trated in Figure 8.92 Ionospheric 60 8 Weather Geomagnetic 31 6 conditions

Table 13: Quantity of SWE data products and expert groups for each ESC (source: European Space Agency, 2018j)

91 European Space Agency, 2018d 92 European Space Agency, 2018k

ESPI Report 68 30 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Spacecraft Design Environment specification: data archive (SCD) Environment specification: in orbit verification

Post event analysis

Space Weather in the Solar System

Spacecraft In Orbit Environment and Effects Monitoring Operation (SCO) Post-event analysis - UNDER DEVELOPMENT In-orbit environment and effects forecast - UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Mission risk analysis - UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Space Weather in the Solar System Human Space In-flight Crew Radiation Exposure Flight (SCH) Cumulative Crew Radiation Exposure

Increased Crew Radiation Exposure Risk - UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Launch In-flight monitoring of radiation effects in sensitive electronics - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Estimate of radiation effects in sensitive electronics - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Operation (LAU) Forecast of radiation storms - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Atmospheric density forecast - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Risk estimate of service disruption caused by ionospheric scintillations - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Risk estimate of micro-particle impacts - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Trans-ionospheric Near real-time TEC maps Radio Link (TIO) Forecast TEC maps Quality assessment of ionospheric correction

Near real-time ionospheric scintillation maps

Monitoring and forecast of ionospheric disturbances Space Surveillance Atmospheric estimates for drag calculations - UNDER DEVELOPMENT & Tracking (SST) Archive of geomagnetic and solar indices for drag calculation

Forecast of geomagnetic and solar indices for drag calculation - UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Nowcast of ionospheric group delay - UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Non-space System Service to power systems operators Operation (NSO) Service to pipeline operators Service to airlines

Service to resource exploitation system operators

Service to auroral tourism sector

Space weather data archive General Data Latest data guaranteed service Services (GEN) Space weather nowcast and forecast products (daily, weekly) Event based alarms Virtual space weather modelling system - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Guaranteed data service for third-party/added-value service providers - UNDER DEVELOPMENT Space Weather Support Material - UNDER DEVELOPMENT

Figure 8: ESA SWE Services Overview (source: adapted from European Space Agency, 2018k)

Network is “in an intensive development phase Current Status and Planned De- targeted at developing both customer-tailored interfaces and key models as well as other velopments building blocks that will contribute to improving the accuracy of the information that can be As of mid-2018, ESA’s network has been re- provided to end-users. The Network is now be- ceiving raw data from a large number of ing managed in a 'pre-operational' framework, ground- and space-based sensors enabling with live support available only during normal over 140 separate products providing scientific working hours. In the future, steps will be and pre-operational applications for 24 (out of taken to mature the service provision system the 39 services) to be provided to users (see Chapter 6.1). Most these services are currently in a pre-operational phase and, as reported by ESA, the broader Space Weather

ESPI Report 68 31 February 2019

and prepare the network for transition to a initiated efforts to complement ground obser- fully operational framework”.93 vations with “in-situ” measurements from space. These measurements, which aim to en- During the current phase of the programme sure constant monitoring of the Sun and the (2017-2020), activities are taking place in the broader space environment from a range of following areas: vantage points, will consist of: • Federating additional data sources and • Hosted payload instruments that will be expanding the Space Weather Service flown on spacecraft operated by ESA or by Network with new European capabilities, other organisations and will typically com- including development and integration of prise monitoring of particles and fields new state-of-the-art models and tools en- within the magnetosphere and Auroral im- abling enhanced nowcasting and forecast- ages ing of space weather conditions • Dedicated 'SmallSat' or cubesat missions • Maturing and enhancing space-weather “to complement hosted payload instru- products and services ments and cover all the needed measure- • Supporting the development of new appli- ments. The hosted payload instruments cations and enhancement of user inter- and potential SmallSat missions will form faces the SSA 'Distributed SWE Sensor System' (D3S). Observations gathered by D3S will • Supporting the development and deploy- particularly benefit satellite operations, ment of new cutting-edge sensors spacecraft engineering, anomalous-event • Placing space weather sensors on-board analysis and space-environment impact hosting missions from ESA or other part- studies”. ners • Dedicated missions outside the Earth’s • Completing studies leading to future ded- magnetosphere providing remote sensing icated space-weather missions of the Sun, the solar corona and the free solar wind (see Box 2 for an overview of As evident from this list of actions, together ESA’s Lagrange point space weather mis- with advancements in ground-based measure- sions). ments and computational capabilities, ESA has

Box 2: ESA’s Future SWE Missions Together with the launch of dedicated SmallSats missions, ESA has initiated the assessment of two possible future SWE missions that will ensure a robust capability to nowcast and forecast potentially dangerous solar events. This assessment currently envisages positioning two spacecraft at the La- grangian points so as to have a stable location from which to make observations. In particular, “of the five Lagrangian points of the Earth-Sun system, L1 and L5 have been deemed very good locations from which spacecraft can monitor interplanetary space and solar activity”. More specifically, this is because: • The L1 point is “located in the solar wind “upstream” from Earth, so measurements at L1 provide information about the space weather coming toward Earth”. • The L5 point, “located 60 degrees behind Earth, close to its orbit, will provide a way to monitor Earth-oriented coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the 'side' so as to give more precise estimates of the speed and direction of the CME”.

These measurements will be used to provide space weather warnings, alerts and status information to a variety of customers here on Earth. More specifically, the objectives of the L1 and L5 mission have been defined as: • The primary objective of the L1 mission is “to provide in-situ observations of the interplanetary medium, including solar wind speed, density, temperature and dynamic pressure, as well as characteristics of the charged particle environment and the direction and strength of the Inter- planetary Magnetic Field (IMF). The L1 mission will also monitor the solar disc and solar corona and measure solar energetic particles that may be associated with solar flares and the onset of coronal mass ejections”. • The L5 mission objective is “to complement measurements made from L1 by providing a view of the Sun away from the direct Sun-Earth line. This gives visibility of the propagation of plasma clouds emitted by the Sun toward Earth, as well as views of the solar disk before it rotates into view from Earth. The L5 mission will carry out heliospheric imaging of the space between the

93 European Space Agency, 2018g

ESPI Report 68 32 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Sun and Earth, monitoring of the solar disc and corona and carry out measurements of the interplanetary medium”. To meet these objectives, “the satellites at the L1 and L5 positions have to carry different types of remote-sensing and in-situ instruments”.94 More specifically: • Remote sensing instruments shall include: o Coronagraph o Heliospheric Imager o Magnetograph o EUV Imager o X ray flux monitor • In situ instruments shall include: o Magnetometer o Plasma analyser o Medium energy particle spectrometer o Radiation monitor

The L1/L5 missions and the next SWE segment ESA’s roadmap for the operationalisation of of the ESA SSA programme are to be approved SWE services provision is summarised in Fig- at the ESA Ministerial Council of 2019. Overall, ure 9.

Figure 9: ESA SWE Services Timeline (credit: European Space Agency, 2018g)

one of the first initiatives to provide an all-hazards approach to critical infrastructure protec- 3.1.3 European Union tion. One such potential hazard is SWE. The EU Disaster Risk Management (DRM) policy In the context of SWE, the European Union has covers prevention, preparedness, and re- financed SWE-related research & innovation sponse for all types of disasters, with risk as- projects and carried out awareness raising ac- sessment being seen as the very basis of DRM. tivities. In June 2018, the European Commis- The risk-assessment policy context is an- 95 sion proposed a Space Programme that in- chored in the Union Civil Protection Mecha- cluded SWE activities to provide operational nism, which requires EU Member States to services at EU level. prepare a National Risk Assessment (NRA) and From a policy perspective, Council Directive list the priority risks the EU is facing. As of 2008/114/EC on the "Identification and desig- 2018, six countries (Finland, Hungary, Nether- nation of European Critical Infrastructures and lands, Sweden, UK and Norway) had included 96 the assessment of the need to improve their SWE as a priority risk in their NRAs. In addi- protection", adopted in December 2008, was tion, 20 NRAs contained critical-infrastructure

94 “The instruments on board the L1 and L5 missions will utilise technologies developed for, and tested on, earlier ESA and joint ESA/NASA solar science missions such as SOHO, STEREO and Solar Orbiter. For ESA's SSA missions, the instruments will be optimised for reliability and robustness to provide space weather monitoring data for operational applications, that is, for use in real-time systems that depend on a regular flow of data”. 95 European Commission, 2018 96 European Commission, 2017a

ESPI Report 68 33 February 2019

loss or power outage scenarios as priority haz- • Research and innovation activities under ards. Clearly, SWE can be considered as a trig- the EU’s Framework Programmes for Re- ger of these scenarios.97 search and Innovation The EU’s recognition of the need to protect space- and-ground-based infrastructure from EU Framework Programmes SWE events has served as the backbone and instigator for the enactment of two broad Research projects related to SWE have been th types of actions, namely: funded through both the 7 Framework Pro- gramme (FP7) for the period 2007-2013 and • Awareness raising and research activities Horizon 2020 (H2020) for the period 2014- undertaken by the European Commis- 2020 (see Box 3).´ sion's Joint Research Centre.

Box 3: SWE in EU Framework Programmes SWE-related research has been strongly supported by the EU’s Framework Programmes for Research and Innovation. Since 2007, a total of €63.57 million of space weather-related activities has been provided by the EU through more than 30 projects involving a plethora of organisations (including universities, research institutes and companies)

Under the Space Theme of the FP7, the EU has more specifically supported the implementation of 23 projects related to SWE with a total funding of €43.9 million. These projects have been funded in various calls under the topics of: • Space Sciences (2007) • Security of space assets from space weather events (2009) • Exploitation of space science and exploration data (2010) • Key technologies enabling observations in and from space (2011) • Space Weather events (2012)

Under the Space Theme of H2020, the EU has financed around €10.5 million for 7 projects during the period 2014-2018 and allocated €9 million for a call in 2019. The projects have been funded in four calls under the topics of: • Protection of European assets in and from space (2014) • Other Actions – GNSS Evolution, Mission and Services related R&D activities (2015) • Competitiveness of European space technology (2017) • Secure and safe space environment (2019)

A more detailed overview of the various calls, the funded projects and their relative budgets is provided in Annex 3.

The funded projects have encompassed re- els and applications. In order to provide a ho- search on a wide range of SWE physical phe- listic account of this plethora of projects, they nomena, SWE effects on space and ground have been grouped according to their main fo- systems, as well as the development of mod- cus, as shown in Figure 10.

97 The Union Civil Protection Mechanism also requires The risk-management capability should include administra- Member States to submit a risk management capability as- tive, technical, and financial factors (Krausmann et al., sessment, the purpose of which is to understand the ability 2016). of Member States to address the identified priority risks.

ESPI Report 68 34 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Ionospheric/Atmosp Mitigation Impact on Space Impact on Ground Data Exploitation Global Modelling heric Effects Technologies Systems Systems

ECLAT AFFECTS SR2S SOTERIA COMSEP EURISGIC

HESPE POPDAT SIDER SWIFF SPACECAST

eHeroes ATMOP TECHTide PROGRESS SEPServer

SHOCK FLARECAST SWAMI PLASMON

SOLID ESC2RAD MAARBLE

F-CHROMA SPACESTORM

HELCATS MISW

STORM IPS

HESPERIA

Figure 10: Projects funded by the FP7 and Horizon 2020 by category

As evident from Figure 10, the majority of re- the Earth’s magnetosphere/ionosphere cou- search activities have focused on the exploita- pling reliance on existing observation capaci- tion of scientific data and the impact of SWE ties.”98 on space systems. This is mainly because the While providing a detailed account of the re- overarching themes of the calls under which sults of each of these projects exceeds the SWE projects were funded were related to the scope of the study, some examples can be security of space assets and to the exploitation provided to show that “the resources associ- of scientific data. A non-negligible focus has ated with these programmes have led to mile- been also placed on the development of theo- stone results in space weather research, ser- retical and simulation models for interpreting vices development and international collabo- the SWE data. It is worth highlighting that the ration”.99 More specifically, it can be stated call, SU-SPACE-22-SEC-2019 - Space that the funded projects have greatly contrib- Weather, to be opened in 2019, will focus on uted to the goal of delivering operational SWE addressing the “development of modelling ca- services at European level by: pabilities and/or the delivery of prototype services able to interpret a broad range of obser- • Improving understanding of the impact on vations of the Sun’s corona and magnetic field, space systems and terrestrial infrastruc- of the Sun-Earth interplanetary space, and of ture of SWE phenomena. For instance, the project EURISGIC (European Risk from

98 Proposals will address application domains that may in- services already available through the Space Situational clude space as well as terrestrial infrastructure. Proposals Awareness programme of ESA, and take into account will include architectural concepts of possible European global space weather service developments by the WMO” space weather services in relation to the application do- (European Commission, 2017a). mains addressed and they will demonstrate complementa- 99 Krausmann et al., 2016 rity to and, if relevant, utilize, precursor Space Weather

ESPI Report 68 35 February 2019

Geomagnetically Induced Currents) iden- and other European satellites, comple- tified the impact of Geomagnetically In- mented by a large set of data from Euro- duced Currents (GIC) on the electrical pean ground-based observatories”.104 power networks in Europe based on in- • Improving forecasts and predictions of situ solar wind observations and compre- disruptive space weather events. The hensive simulations of the Earth's magne- SPACECAST project developed the first tosphere. Through utilisation of geomag- European system providing a near-real- netic recordings and a developed proto- time (up to 3 hours ahead) forecast of the type grid model, EURISGIC derived a ge- high-energy electron radiation belt, while ographic map that indicates the statistical FLARECAST (Flare Likelihood And Region occurrence of rapid geomagnetic varia- Eruption Forecasting), for instance, has tions and large geoelectric fields through- developed a flare prediction system aimed out Europe. at providing more “accurate and reliable • Delivering “new insights into the detailed space-weather monitoring and forecasting processes that generate space weather, capabilities”.105 with a view to enhancing the performance • Identifying best practices to limit the im- of space weather prediction.”100 The pacts of SWE on space- and ground-based H2020 project HESPERIA (High Energy infrastructures. TECHTide (Warning and Solar Particle Events forecasting and Anal- Mitigation Technologies for Travelling Ion- ysis), for instance, contributed to advance ospheric Disturbances Effects), for in- the knowledge of “physical mechanisms stance, has designed new viable Travel- that result into high-energy solar particle ling Ionospheric Disturbances (TID) im- events (SEPs) by exploiting novel da- pact mitigation strategies for technologies tasets (FERMI/LAT/GBM; PAMELA; affected by TIDs and, plans to validate the AMS)”.101 added value of these techniques in close • Supporting development of physics-based collaboration with operators of these tech- and empirical models. For instance, the nologies.106 FP7 project SWIFF (Space Weather Inte- grated Forecasting Framework) has developed some of the “most promising EU-led Initiatives techniques to handle multi-physics and In parallel to these activities on the research multiscale problems and has demon- and innovation side, the European Commis- strated the possibility of these methods in sion has undertaken other actions related to selected processes relevant to space SWE through the Joint Research Centre (JRC). weather modelling”,102 while the recently The JRC is the European Commission’s science launched SWAMI (Space Weather Atmos- and knowledge service. It aims to provide ev- phere Model and Indices), has been de- idence-based scientific support for the Euro- veloping improved neutral atmosphere pean policy-making process. In this context, and thermosphere models with the aim of the JRC has provided support to EU policymak- making a major leap forward by combin- ers in the area of space weather by: ing these physics-based and empirical models, and improving the forecast of the • Raising awareness 103 activity indices”. • Performing risk assessment for critical in- • Adding value to Earth-based observations frastructures and space missions by making better use • Conducting scientific research towards of existing data and developed databases. GNSS resilience107 The studies conducted by SOTERIA (SO- lar-TERrestrial Investigations and Ar- Raising Awareness chives), for instance, “involved the analy- The JRC has co-organized several international sis and processing of the relevant data high-level meetings involving multiple stake- from 18 satellites, including several ESA holders with the stated objective being to: 108

100 Community Research and Development Information 104 SOTERIA also put considerable effort into utilising and Service, 2015 developing theoretical and simulation models for interpret- 101 HESPERIA also produced two novel forecasting tools ing the space weather data, covering all aspects of the based upon proven concepts Community Research and complex Sun-Earth connection. Chiarini, 2013 Development Information Service, 2017c 105 Community Research and Development Information 102 Chiarini, 2013 Service, 2017d 103 Community Research and Development Information 106 Community Research and Development Information Service,2018 Service, 2018e 107 Krausmann et al., 2016 108 Krausmann et al., 2016

ESPI Report 68 36 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

• Raise awareness of the potential impact of Particular mention should be made of the extreme space weather on technological Space Weather Awareness Dialogue (SWAD), infrastructures in space and on the which was organized by the JRC together with ground, the Directorate-General Enterprise and Indus- try in Brussels, Belgium, on 25-26 October • Identify related scientific, operational and 2011. A summary of this high-level dialogue is policy challenges for disaster prevention, in Box 4.109 preparedness and response, and • Develop proposals to go from awareness to action at the EU policy level.

Box 4: The Space Weather Awareness Dialogue (SWAD) In view of the risk of catastrophic technological failure under the solar maximum expected in early 2013, the European Commission organised the Space Weather Awareness Dialogue (SWAD) Con- ference in Brussels on 25-26 October 2011. The aim of the dialogue was “to raise awareness of the potential impact of space weather on critical infrastructures in space and on the ground, and to recommend concrete actions to better protect them”. The SWAD conference brought together about 70 high-level representatives from national organisations and authorities, international organisations with assets possibly affected by space weather, operators of critical infrastructures, academia, and European Union institutions. During the discussions, consensus was reached on the following points: • Space weather is a threat to our critical infrastructures that needs to be addressed. • An analysis of the space-weather threat to ground-based critical infrastructure (power grid, aviation, telecommunications, etc.) is of equal importance to the study of space-based infrastructures. • There is no central entity that is taking the lead in the space-weather community. • The assessment of space-weather impact on critical infrastructures requires a multidiscipli- nary effort from all stakeholders (scientists, engineers, infrastructure operators, policy makers). • Ageing satellites that monitor space weather need to be replaced. • A framework for better-structured communication between the stakeholders is required. • Open space-weather data sharing is necessary for improving early warning and impact models. • While there is some preparedness for normal space weather in some infrastructure sectors, nobody is fully prepared for extreme events. • The topic of space-weather impacts would benefit from cross-sectoral discussion. • Emergency exercises could help raise awareness of space-weather impact. • International cooperation is required to cope with the problem as response capabilities may be beyond the capacity of individual countries. 110

Risk Assessment • Space Weather and Power Grids: Findings and Outlook, 2013 In terms of risk assessment, the JRC objective has been to “understand vulnerability of criti- • Space Weather and Financial Systems: cal infrastructures and services to space Findings and Outlook, 2014 weather and possible consequences for soci- • Space Weather and Rail: Findings and ety”, particularly in terms of risk to infrastruc- Outlook, 2015 ture, risk to services provided, and the risk of cascading effects. To achieve this purpose, the • Space Weather & Critical Infrastructures: JRC has been conducting in-house analysis Findings and Outlook, 2016 and organizing gatherings with representatives of European infrastructure operators, In addition, the JRC has carried out a prelimi- regulators, crisis response experts, national nary assessment of the vulnerability of the space agencies, academia, and others. The North European power transmission grid to ex- 111 outcomes of these summits have been pub- treme space weather. lished in a series of relevant studies including: Scientific Research

109 European Commission, 2011 111 Piccinelli and Krausmann, 2018 110 Krausmann, 2011

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Finally, with regard to SWE impact assess- Europe of 2016. The document more specifi- ment, the JRC has been performing GNSS- cally states that: based studies of the ionosphere, and more specifically, a quantitative assessment of the » The Commission will reinforce the SST impact of space weather on GNSS navigation support framework to improve the perfor- and timing receivers. As presented in Fig 18, mance and geographical coverage of sensors. It will consider extending its scope to this scientific research is a transversal effort address other threats and vulnerabilities, involving multiple issue-areas. for example cyber threats or the impact of space weather on satellites and on ground infrastructure such as transport, energy grids and telecommunication networks. SST In the long term, this SST model could evolve into a more comprehensive space situational awareness service, building on existing activities in the Member States and ESA, and taking into account international cooperation frameworks, particularly with the US. Space The Commission will engage with the user GNSS Weather sectors concerned to develop responses to space weather risks and alerts. It will work with ESA and EUMETSAT to support research and promote international efforts in this domain.113 Critical Building on this, in September 2017, in its Infrastructure Resolution on the Space Strategy, the Euro- Protection pean Parliament called on the Commission to support extending the scope of SST to allow space-based weather forecasts, and proposed Figure 12: Relevant JRC scientific research areas a focus on near-earth objects to counter the potentially catastrophic risk of any such object In order “to support the development of more colliding with Earth. resilient receivers, the JRC has deployed iono- More recently, in June 2018, the European spheric scintillation monitoring stations in Commission published a ‘Proposal for a Regu- Peru, Norway and Vietnam, as well as two sta- lation of the European Parliament and of the tions in Antarctica in collaboration with a Eu- Council – establishing the space policy pro- ropean research consortium. Scintillation gramme of the European Union, relating to the events are recorded at the monitoring stations European Agency for Space and repealing and played back at the JRC to test standard Regulations (EU) No 1285/2013, No 377/2014 receivers used, e.g., by aviation. This supports and No 912/2010 and Decision the development of GNSS receivers that are 541/2014/EU’.114 This programme proposal less vulnerable to space-weather impact, as details its objectives, and suitable measures well as also the preparation of standards for for achieving them, which also cover SWE:115 enhanced receiver reliability. The JRC hosts a database of scintillation events (intermediate • Provide, or contribute to the provision of, frequency data) sourced from the monitoring high-quality and up-to-date and, where stations during periods of high ionospheric ac- appropriate, secure space-related data, tivity. This data is made available to the re- information and services without interrup- search community for free. Future work will in- tion and wherever possible at global level, vestigate the potential of using Formosat- meeting existing and future needs and 3/COSMIC data, as well as information from able to meet the Union's political priori- the International Ground Station (IGS) net- ties, including as regards climate change work, to monitor ionospheric scintillation”. 112 and security and defence; • Maximise the socio-economic benefits, in- Future Actions cluding by promoting the widest possible use of the data, information and services Drawing on the various actions being taken di- provided by the Programme's compo- rectly or indirectly, the European Commission nents; considers that reinforcing its role in SWE was, inter alia, affirmed in the Space Strategy for • Enhance the security of the Union and its Member States, as well as its freedom of

112 Krausmann et al., 2016 114 European Commission, 2018 113 European Commission, 2016b:9 115 European Commission, 2018

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action and its strategic autonomy, in par- (b) the space weather services may con- ticular in technological and evidence- tribute to the protection of the following based decision-making terms; sectors: spacecraft, aviation, GNSSs, electric power grids and communications. • Promote the role of the Union in the international arena as a leading actor in the 3. The selection of entities to provide space space sector and strengthening its role in weather services shall be performed tackling global challenges and supporting through a call for tenders”. global initiatives, including as regards cli- Additionally, with specific reference to Galileo, mate change and sustainable develop- the EU is considering providing its own iono- ment. sphere prediction service for GNSS users Specifically concerning the future outlook of through the GNSS Service centre in Madrid European SWE activity, this programme pro- (GSC). Specifically, Article 44.2 of the proposal highlights the risks of extreme SWE posed regulation states that Galileo shall also weather events to citizens and ground- and contribute to: “(c) space weather information space-based infrastructures; states the need and early warning services provided via the for further assessment of SWE risks and user Galileo ground- based infrastructure, intended needs, raises awareness of risks, and ensures mainly to reduce the potential risks to users of the delivery of SWE services.116 Furthermore, the services provided by Galileo and other iterated within this paragraph is the necessity GNSSs related to space weather events”. To- for Union-level service delivery according to wards this, in the H2020 Work Programme user needs, requiring “targeted, coordinated 2014-2015, one of the procurement topics in and continued research and development ac- the area “GNSS Evolution, Mission and Ser- tivities to support space weather service devices related R&D activities” was the develop- velopment,” building on present national and ment of an Ionosphere Prediction Service. (see Union capabilities and enabling both Member Box 5). State and private sector participation.117 Further comments on the possible implemen- Under Title VIII (Other Components of the Pro- tation of these actions for SWE service delivery gramme), Chapter I: SSA, Section II: Space at European level will be provided in Chapter Weather and NEO of the programme proposal, 4.3, but it is here important to note that this the Commission identifies a framework for the proposal is now in co-decision (Parliament and future delivery of SWE services to public and Council) and hence is subject to amendments, private European users. Article 59 states:118 before its adoption and implementation. 1. “The space weather function may support Finally, it is worth mentioning that alongside the following activities: these proposed activities on the intra-Euro- pean front, the EU is sponsoring actions at the (a) the assessment and identification of international level, with a prominent role as- the needs of the users in the sectors iden- signed to the UN and its specialised agencies tified in paragraph 2(b) with the aim of (WMO, ICAO). At the 55th session of the Sci- setting out the space weather services to entific and Technical Subcommittee of the UN be provided; COPUOS, the EU delegation stressed its sup- (b) the provision of space weather services port for “cooperation among national/regional to the space weather users, according to space weather services, including by free ex- the identified users' needs and technical change of space weather data and forecasts, requirements. with the aim to achieve continuous, regular, global and consistent space weather forecasts, 2. Space weather services shall be available awareness and notification to users” as well as at any time without interruption and may its support to “the WMO and ICAO initiatives be selected according to the following aimed at the provision of space weather prod- rules: ucts to aviation”. 119 (a) the Commission shall prioritise the space weather services to be delivered at Union level according to the needs of users, the technological readiness of the services and the result of a risk assessment;

116 European Commission, 2018: paragraph 70 118 European Commission, 2018 117 European Commission, 2018: paragraph 70 119 Delegation of the European Union. 2018

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Box 5: Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS) The shifting state of the Ionosphere, exposed to a number of SWE related effects and disturbances, is a major source of GNSS signal disruption. GNSS signals, products and services are crucial to a plethora of modern domains, public and private, and so the stability of GNSS systems is fundamental to a wide array of users. Within this line of thought, in 2015 the European Commission launched an open call for tenders to award a service contract with the objective of “translating the prediction and forecasting of the ionosphere into tangible results and user-devoted metrics”.120 As a result, the Ionosphere Prediction Service (IPS) project is under procurement by the European Commission through the framework of the Galileo programme, Galileo itself of course being highly dependent on GNSS signal stability.121

The overall aim of the IPS project is to “design, develop and operate a service prototype platform to monitor and predict the ionospheric behaviour and the potential effects on the performances of GNSS based applications.”122 It is in this sense that the IPS project is geared as a service towards stable performance for user bases that are vulnerable to GNSS disruptions from ionospheric disturbances. As such, the service aims to cater for the specific requirements of its wide potential user- base – key feature of the IPS is the generation and dissemination of customised, timely warnings as to allow them to prepare for approaching events which may pose issues to GNSS and dependent operations within the specific users’ domain of application.123

As a system, the IPS “monitors and forecasts solar and ionospheric activity and predicts its effect on GNSS signals and on the final performance of user applications.”124 This predictive information is then translated into early warning issues that are targeted towards users, allowing them to anticipate potential degradation of performance as well as implement any pre-emptive mitigation measures.125 In this sense the IPS service revolves around three core pillars: 126 • Sensors which gather space weather and ionospheric measurements through a network of ground- and space-based instruments and GNSS reference stations • A processing facility to generate the forecasting and nowcasting capabilities • A user-interface – a web-based too to provide a platform of interaction with users, providing warnings and generated data products in various formats.

As mentioned, the potential user base for this service is considerable given the number of domains reliant on stable GNSS services. The aviation industry in particular is a key target user for a number of benefits can be gained regarding pre-planning of flight paths, real-time changes to flight-paths, and ultimately ensuring the safety of crew and passengers. Other industries that heavily rely on the precision positioning services provided by GNSS, e.g. energy extractors, electrical grid operators, construction, and civil engineering companies, are also likely beneficiaries. Beyond this, the IPS will also allow for other actors within, or interacting with, the field of operation space weather to reuse the predictions of the IPS, compare them to their own, or input the data into their own models to improve upon them.127

In addition, the delegation advocated that “UNOOSA should support the development of an international operational system with re- 3.1.4 EUMETSAT spect to space weather services, building on Set up in 1986 to provide national meteoro- respective regional capacities and specifici- logical agencies of member states and wider ties”, and that the EU “would be in favour of users with continuous weather and climate re- developing a coordination committee within lated satellite data through exploiting Euro- the UN to support a collaborative research ap- pean weather and climate observation sys- proach to the issue of space weather”.128 tems, EUMETSAT’s involvement in SWE activities has been traditionally considered outside its core mandate and therefore very limited.

120 European Commission, 2015 121 Telespazio, 2018 122 Telespazio, 2018 123 Telespazio, 2018 124 European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency, 2018 125 European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency, 2018 126 European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency, 2018; Telespazio, 2018 127 European Global Navigation Satellite Systems Agency, 2018 128 Ibid.

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Over the past decade, however, the Darm- and solar wind occurrences that might im- stadt-based organization has expressed an in- pair the satellites and instruments. terest in playing a more active role in the field Through SEM-2, NOAA and EUMETSAT of SWE in synergy with delivery of meteoro- guarantee “a continuity in the determina- logical services. The rationale for EUMETSAT’s tion of auroral activity — intensities of involvement in SWE can be compared to that charged particle radiation within the of the interests stated by WMO in the past dec- Earth's atmosphere that can degrade ra- ade (See Section 5.3). Since forecasting SWE dio communications (occasionally making has many similarities with forecasting the short wave radio communication impossi- tropospheric weather, there are relevant syn- ble in the polar regions); occasionally dis- ergies to be exploited with weather and cli- rupt the proper operation of satellite sys- mate data, science, and services to users, tems; and increase the radiation dose to such as sharing observing platforms and issu- astronauts in space (when intensities are ing multi-hazard warnings. high)”. 130 In addition, as a meteorological satellite oper- The data provided by SEM-2 are processed ating entity, EUMETSAT itself has an interest through NOAA SWPC to provide information on in the delivery of tailored SWE services. The the state of the Earth's near space environ- reason for this is twofold: first, SWE poses ment and possible warnings to customers (in- risks to the functioning of meteorological sat- cluding EUMETSAT itself) whose systems are ellites – i.e. direct damage to systems as well affected. as interference to operations; second, Besides GRAS and SEM-2, EUMETSAT plans to EUMETSAT satellites’ exposure to such SWE host dedicated SWE sensors aboard the next events places them in a very good position to generation meteorological satellites. More contribute to SWE observations and hence be- specifically, the six Meteosat Third Generation come a source of SWE data. (MTG), the six Metop Second Generation EUMETSAT’s interest in SWE can also be seen (Metop-SG) and the next Copernicus satellites as an indirect by-product of the developments (namely Sentinel 6) will all feature dedicated taking place in many of its Member States, the instruments for monitoring solar activity and national meteorological services of which SWE phenomena. Through these instruments, have, over the last decade, extended their in- EUMETSAT will become an important source of volvement in SWE activities, thus compelling SWE data, with the subsequent purpose of be- EUMETSAT to reflect this trend in its mandate. coming involved in the exchange of SWE data Equally important, all EUMETSAT’s major part- with other meteorological agencies worldwide, ners, including the WMO and hydro-meteoro- thus complementing its current role of user of logical agencies such as NOAA, SWE data with the role of provider. From this ROSHYDROMET and CMA, have included SWE standpoint, it is important to note that activities within their portfolio, thus potentially EUMETSAT is involved in the Space Weather placing EUMETSAT in an optimal position to Coordination Group of the Coordination Group benefit from its long-standing cooperative re- on Meteorological Satellites (CGMS), which lations with these agencies. Finally, it should has been tasked with international coordina- be highlighted that EUMETSAT’s core mission tion of SWE satellite operations and their de- is to provide and distribute forecasts 24/7 and rived products and services (see Section 5.2.4 in real-time to users. for an overview of CGMS’ role in SWE). EUMETSAT’s involvement in SWE formally in At the narrower European level, the SWE in- SWE started in 2006, when the organisation struments flying on board EUMETSAT’s MTG, started to host SWE instruments aboard its Metop-SG and Sentinel-6 satellites are ex- meteorological satellites. More specifically, the pected to contribute to ESA’s planned D3S. Metop-A and Metop-B polar orbit satellites Along the same line, the Darmstadt-based or- host two instruments relevant to SWE: ganisation is currently also involved in discussions with ESA concerning ESA’s L5 mission • A GNSS Receiver Atmospheric Sounder preparations and, more specifically, with re- (GRAS), which is primarily used for deriv- spect to the operations of this mission, the ing atmospheric sounding and, by exten- management of which might be eventually be sion, relevant SWE-related information.129 entrusted to EUMETSAT. Besides these specific • The Space Environmental Monitor (SEM- contributions, broader discussions are cur- 2), which is a non-meteorological instru- rently taking place between EUMETSAT and its ment provided by NOAA to provide infor- member states to assess the opportunities for mation on solar terrestrial phenomena EUMETSAT to take a more defined role in the delivery of operational SWE services. Whereas

129 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteoro- 130 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteoro- logical Satellites, 2018a logical Satellites, 2018b

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this development has not been detailed in Today there is a plethora of international initi- EUMETSAT’s 10-year strategy, adopted in atives in the field of SWE focusing on policy June 2016 and named “Challenge 2025”131, matters (e.g. UN bodies), on operational mat- this is because EUMETSAT expects a consoli- ters (e.g. ISES), and on research and educa- dation of its Member States’ views and a deci- tion, e.g. the Committee on Space Research sion in this respect within the next few years. (COSPAR). An overview of these initiatives is provided in the following paragraphs.

3.2 International 3.2.1 International Space Envi- Framework for ronment Service (ISES) Since its creation in 1962, ISES has been the SWE Services primary multilateral body engaged in the international coordination of space weather services. ISES is “a collaborative network of The development of European SWE services space weather service-providing organizations should also take into proper account existing around the globe, organized and operated for collaborations and partnerships on the inter- the benefit of the international space weather national level because, due to the nature and user community”. 135 Its mission is to “im- global reaching impacts of SWE events, global prove, coordinate and deliver operational coverage from ground- and space-based ob- space weather services” and more specifically servation systems is critical for ensuring the to: delivery of operational services. • Provide real-time forecasting and moni- Indeed, as expressed by UN COPUOS “effec- toring of space weather to reduce and tive progress in advancing space weather ser- mitigate the risk of space weather impacts vices requires coordinated global actions that on technology, critical infrastructure, and will serve to focus efforts on the needed fore- human activities. casting, monitoring and awareness raising with the goal of protecting life, property and • Facilitate international communication critical infrastructure”.132 Thus, improved co- and service coordination regarding space ordination in the field of SWE “is especially rel- weather, particularly during periods of en- evant for filling key measurement gaps, secur- hanced activity, and in the event of ex- ing the long-term continuity of critical meas- treme space weather. urements, advancing global forecasting and modelling capabilities, identifying potential • Improve space weather services and pro- risks, and developing practices and guidelines mote the understanding of space weather to mitigate the impact of space weather phe- and its effects for users, researchers, the nomena, including on long-term observation media, and the general public (ISES). of climate change and risk events”.133 These objectives are met through the work International collaboration is a well-estab- conducted by of ISES and its members. ISES lished tradition in the area of SWE research, currently comprises: having longstanding roots. One of the first in- • 16 Regional Warning Centres (RWC) from itiatives for “global coordination was taken in member states (Australia, Belgium, Bra- 1928 with the initiation of regular forecasts of zil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, India, radio conditions by the International Union of Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Repub- Radio Science (URSI). Cooperation was en- lic of Korea, Russian Federation, South Af- hanced during the International Geophysical rica, Sweden and United States) Year in 1957-1958 with the establishment of a calendar of “world days” for coordinated ob- • Four Associate Warning Centres from as- servations, and with the setting up of a series sociate entities (three in China and one in of Regional Warning Centres (RWC) and a France). World Warning Agency. These initiatives were • One collaborative expert centre for data combined in 1962 and, in 1996, were renamed and product exchange in Europe (ESA) the “International Space Environment Service (ISES)”. 134 The RWC “share data and services among the various centres and provide space weather

131 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteoro- 133 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of logical Satellites, 2016 Outer Space, 2017b 132 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 134 World Meteorological Organisation and Coordination Outer Space, 2017a Group for Meteorological Satellites, 2008 135 The International Space Environment Service, 2018

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services to customers in their regions. The (IHY) in conjunction with the fiftieth adversary centres provide a broad range of services, in- of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) in cluding forecasts, alerts and warnings of solar, 2007. The term “heliophysical” was coined as magnetospheric and ionospheric conditions, a broadening of the concept "geophysical," extensive space environment data, customer- with the aim of referring specifically to the ac- focused event analyses and long-range predic- tivity of studying the interconnectedness of tions of the solar cycle”. …The RWC hosted by the entire solar-heliospheric-planetary sys- the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center in tem. Boulder, Colorado, “plays a special role as The IHY served as an international programme "World Warning Agency", acting as a hub for of scientific exchange aiming to “focus world- data exchange and forecasts”.136 Whereas wide attention on the importance of interna- each centre focuses on its own region, ISES tional cooperation in research activities in the serves as a platform to “share data, exchange field of solar-terrestrial physics”.138 The spe- and compare forecasts, discuss customer cific objectives of this UN-sponsored endeav- needs and identify the highest priorities for im- our were:139 proving space weather services”137. ISES also maintains the international geophysical calen- • To provide benchmark measurements of dar, which coordinates and recommends dates the response of the magnetosphere, the for solar and geophysical observations that ionosphere, the lower atmosphere and cannot be performed continuously. Earth’s surface to heliospheric phenomena, in order to identify global processes ISES is a Network Member of the International and drivers that affected the terrestrial Council for Science World Data System (ICSU- environment and climate; WDS) and collaborates with the World Meteor- ological Organization (WMO) and other inter- • To further the global study of the Sun-he- national organizations, including the Commit- liosphere system outwards to the helio- tee on Space Research (COSPAR), the Inter- pause, in order to understand the external national Union of Radio Science (URSI), and and historical drivers of geophysical the International Union of Geodesy and Geo- change; physics (IUGG) (see below). • To foster international scientific cooperation in the study of heliophysical phenom- 3.2.2 United Nations ena; • To communicate the unique scientific re- Within the UN system, SWE-related activities sults of the International Heliophysical have been mainly carried out by the Commit- Year to interested members of the scien- tee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space tific community and the general public (UNCOPUOS) and the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). The IHY provided a successful model for the deployment of arrays of small scientific instruments in new and scientifically interesting ge- UNCOPUOS ographic locations, and outreach, involving UNCOPUOS serves as an international policy more than 70 countries during a two-year pe- coordination body concerned with all aspects riod from February 2007 to February 2009. of space weather. The Committee started to The IHY concluded in February 2009, but its specifically address this domain in 2003, when mission was largely continued via the Interna- it included an agenda item on Solar-Terrestrial tional Space Weather Initiative (ISWI). physics, as a single item for discussions, in the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) work of the Scientific and Technical Sub-Com- mittee (STSC). Although being intended as a Building upon the success of the IHY, in 2009 single item for discussion, since 2004 the COPUOS endorsed the inclusion of “a new Committee’s involvement in space weather agenda item entitled the “International Space matters has become constant, thanks to the Weather Initiative” (ISWI) under a three-year progressive enactment of a variety of initia- work plan with specific focus on the effects of tives. These are described below. space weather on the Earth and its impact, inter alia, on communications and transport” International Heliophysical Year 2007 Under the three-year work plan, from 2010 to In 2004, the STSC started to plan the organi- 2012, the STSC: sation of an International Heliophysical Year

136 World Meteorological Organisation and Coordination 138 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Group for Meteorological Satellites, 2008 Outer Space, 2017b:5 137 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 139 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:15 Outer Space, 2017b:5

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• Finalised a report on regional and interna- the STSC to introduce a regular agenda item tional plans, on space weather, in 2014 COPUOS endorsed the creation of an Expert Group on Space • Identified gaps and synergies in ongoing Weather within the STSC. The Expert Group on activities, Space Weather has the responsibility to “pro- • Encouraged continued operation of exist- mote awareness, provide guidance, and ena- ing instrument arrays and new instrument ble communication and cooperation in space deployments weather-related activities among member states of the Committee and related national Again, the agenda item on ISWI was con- and international organisations”.141 cluded in 2012, but its activities were continued under the aegis of the international coop- In 2015, the expert group presented its multi- eration programme created out of this agenda year work plan, which was subsequently en- item (see further). dorsed by the STSC.142 Under this work plan, the Expert Group has to “examine reports and Expert Group on Space Weather of the Long- other information related to space weather; Term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities complete an inventory of stakeholders, review (LTSSA) their role in the global space weather effort In 2009 the STSC established a Working Group and develop cooperation; and promote in- (WG) on the Long-Term Sustainability of Outer volvement by member states in providing Space Activities (LTSSA). As part of its terms space weather services and monitoring”.143 of reference, the WG established four expert The work plan was reviewed in February 2016 groups, including one for space weather (ex- at the second meeting of the Expert Group, pert group C). In 2012, this group submitted which agreed to continue meeting annually on to the Working Group a working paper, which the margins of the sessions of the STSC as well was then used as a basis for the development as inter-sessionally. At its third meeting, held of two guidelines for the LTSSA pertaining to on the margins of the February 2017 session space weather, namely: of the STSC, the Expert Group “began to de- • Guideline 16: Share operational space velop a road map for international coordina- weather data and forecasts; and tion and information exchange regarding space weather events and the mitigation of its • Guideline 17: Develop space weather adverse impacts through risk analysis and as- models and tools and collect established sessment of user needs”.144 practices on the mitigation of space weather effects Over the coming year, the Expert Group’s members will “seek to actively engage with The guidelines aim to promote “the collection, national critical infrastructure protection agen- archiving, sharing, intercalibration, long-term cies and national and international electrical continuity and dissemination of critical space power distribution organizations to be able to weather data, model outputs and forecasts, better understand, characterize and ultimately the establishment of dissemination networks examine steps to mitigate space weather dam- and the identification and filling of critical gaps age to that critical infrastructure” 145 in measurements, research and operational models and forecasting tools. They also rec- Here Europe actions ommend that satellite designs and mission Space Weather and UNISPACE+50 plans incorporate features enabling them to withstand space weather effects”.140 The two Marking the fiftieth anniversary of the UN Con- guidelines, the texts of which are included in ference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses Annex A.7, have been considered to provide a of Outer space (1968) in June of 2018, basis for further action. Thus, COPUOS reiter- UNISPACE+50 is an ambitious undertaking of ates that progress in the implementation of COPUOS aiming to build a shared vision with the two guidelines needs to be encouraged in all stakeholders for a “comprehensive states. Space2030 Agenda” in contribution to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as Expert Group on Space Weather part of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Following the successful conclusion of the Sustainable Development.146 work of expert group C and a proposal from

140 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 143 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:6 Outer Space, 2017b:6-7 141 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 144 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:6 Outer Space,2017b:7 142 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 145 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2015a: paragraphs 163-169 Outer Space, 2016: paragraph 171 146 United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, 2018a

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In preparation for UNISPACE+50, in 2016 veloped in partnership with administra- COPUOS endorsed seven thematic priorities, tions responsible for critical infrastructure one of which was been specifically dedicated and civil protection (UNCOPUOS, 2017). to the “International framework for space weather services”. The stated objectives of Thematic Priority 4 are to: UNOOSA • Strengthen the reliability of space sys- UNOOSA, the secretariat for the General As- tems and their ability to respond to the sembly’s COPUOS, has been involved in SWE impact of adverse space weather; matters through the organisation and conduct of workshops, training courses, pilot projects, • Develop a space weather road map for in- reports and publications as part of the UN Pro- ternational coordination and information gramme on Space Applications, and through exchange on space weather events and the International Committee on Global Navi- their mitigation, through risk analysis and gation Satellite Systems (ICG).148 assessment of user needs; UN Programme on Space Applications • Recognize space weather as a global challenge and the need to address the vulner- Established in 1971, and implemented through ability of society as a whole; UNOOSA, the United Nations Programme on Space Applications (PSA)149 was set up with • Increase awareness through developed the objective of assisting member states in ca- communication, capacity-building and pacity building with space science, space tech- outreach; and identify governance and nology and space applications, in support of cooperation mechanisms to support this the wider UN agenda of sustainable develop- objective”. ment and promoting international cooperation in space activities.150 Since its establishment The implementing body for the thematic prior- there have been several hundred training ity 4 is the Expert Group on Space Weather, courses, workshops, meetings and seminars which at its third meeting in February 2017, on a breadth of applications (including space underlined that “important synergies existed weather). In regard to recent developments in between the tasks set out in its existing work space weather, there have been 10 workshops plan and the objectives of the thematic prior- between 2005 and 2015 on the issue of obser- ity”.147 The Expert Group also highlighted two vational limitations in key geographical loca- main goals through which the Committee tions restricting the understanding of the could make significant and actionable future global ionosphere and its links to the near- contributions towards the mitigation of the ad- Earth space environment – as recognised by verse impacts of space weather: the IHY early planning in 2007.151 A major suc- • There was a need to develop an improved cess resulting from these workshops was the basis for international monitoring, fore- instrument deployment programme, address- casting and warning procedures, espe- ing the limitations in data observations, plac- cially in the form of more coordinated in- ing 16 instrument arrays (e.g. magnetometers ternational communication and coordina- to measure the Earth’s magnetic field, radio tion of warnings of extreme space antennas to measure solar CMEs etc.) in over weather events. The Expert Group noted 112 countries, providing measurements on that individual member states had some heliosphere phenomena to fill the global gaps. existing capabilities in that regard upon To complement this, a number of science which to build; teams were additionally created to implement “coordinated investigation programmes”, de- • There was a need to define a set of best veloping the instruments in the array. They practices, operating procedures and ac- participated in instrument operations, data tions to mitigate the adverse impacts of collection, analysis, and publication of their extreme space weather, which required a findings.152 Through the International Space prior assessment in each member state of Weather Initiative (ISWI – detailed below) the its exposure to risks from space weather PSA has continued international research on and related socioeconomic impacts, as understanding and predicting SWE impacts well as defined operating procedures, de- beyond the framework set out by the Interna- tional Heliophysical Year (IHY) in 2007.

147 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 151 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space,2017b Outer Space, 2017b:8 148 United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, 2018b 152 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 149 United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, 2018c Outer Space, 2017b:9 150 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:8

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International Committee on Global Navigation civil aviation: challenges and opportuni- Satellite Systems (ICG) ties” – featuring a dedicated session on challenges faced from space weather with As an umbrella body of the UN, the ICG was the objective of fortifying cooperation established in 2005 to promote coordination amongst the space and aviation stake- on GNSS-related areas such as civil satellite- holder communities, alongside relevant based positioning, navigation, timing, and legal and regulatory actors value-added services.153 Under the objective of seeking greater compatibility, interoperabil- • In preparation for UNISPACE+50, specifi- ity and transparency in this field, the ICG con- cally thematic priority no. 4 on an Inter- solidates coordination between GNSS provid- national framework for space weather ers, regional systems, and augmentations, services, the open informal session of the with a particular focus on the needs of devel- 37th session of UN-Space in 2017157 in- oping nations.154 In the context of SWE, the cluded discussion on space weather re- ICG Working Group on Information and Dis- search and applications with the participa- semination and Capacity building has dis- tion of members states and wider stake- cussed GNSS applications for researching SWE holders to encourage dialogue on how the related atmospheric phenomena – and with United Nations systems can best respond UNCOPOUS as a lead member of this Working to the specific themes Group, engagement and education is facili- tated with the public and policy-makers on the impacts of SWE phenomena, in addition to 3.2.3 International Organisations training and seminar sessions for students and professionals on SWE data analysis and pre- While the UN is mainly involved in SWE mat- diction.155 ters from a policy perspective, its specialised agencies work on coordination aspects on the Other Activities operational side. Their main activities are out- In relation to SWE, and beyond the SWE un- lined below. dertakings conducted through the PSA and ICG, UNOOSA additionally engages in a num- WMO ber of other activities within this field to, in general, promote awareness and collaboration The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in SWE research and applications. To note a is a specialised agency of the UN with 191 few developments of late:156 member states. It acts as the expert group, and authoritative voice, on all meteorologically • In accordance with the Dubai Declaration relevant issues concerning the Earth’s atmos- – the first High-level Forum on space as a pheric state and its interactions/behaviour driver for socioeconomic development, with the oceans and lands, and importantly held in Dubai in November 2016, UNOOSA how this relates to resultant weather, climate, provides technical legal assistance and ca- and water cycles.158 pacity building for states developing national level space policies and regulatory The WMOs interests in SWE can be character- frameworks on areas including SWE. ised by two key components of concern for the WMO: (i) SWE’s relevance to the observing • Leading up to UNISPACE+50, the UN/USA function of meteorological satellites; (ii) and workshop on “Space Weather: the Dec- SWEs relevance to the delivery of meteorolog- ades after the International Heliophysical ical services:159 Year” was held in July/August 2017. This workshop focused on recent advance- • In regards to observation conducted via ments in scientific research through ISWI meteorological satellites, SWE has a two- data, held an international forum on ex- fold relationship with WMO activity. First, treme SWE socioeconomic and societal SWE events can damage and disturb me- impacts, and also made recommendations teorological satellites and are the primary for a future SWE activity roadmap cause of in-orbit failure – such satellites being the main source of Earth-observa- • The third International Civil Aviation Or- tion data that support weather forecasting ganisation and UNOOSA Aerospace sym- and global climate monitoring; and sec- posium was held in August 2017 on the topic of “Emerging space activities and

153 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 156 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:9 Outer Space, 2017b:10 154 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 157 United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, 2018d Outer Space, 2017b:9 158 World Meteorological Organisation, 2018a 155 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 159 World Meteorological Organisation, 2008:6-8 Outer Space, 2017b:9

ESPI Report 68 46 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

ond, many of the meteorological observa- • Improve the collection, exchange and de- tion systems in place can dually be utilised livery of space weather data and infor- in SWE observation. mation through open sharing, internationally agreed standards, and coordinated • Space weather and meteorological ser- procedures taking advantage of the WMO vices are both key components of the en- Information System (WIS); vironmental information necessary to ensure the safety and sustainability of sev- • Ensure that space weather analysis, mod- eral areas of socio-economic activity. In elling and forecasting methods allow the this sense, the integration of these two delivery of operational services on the types of information provides a more reli- best possible scientific basis; facilitate the able basis for environmental services, transfer of technical and scientific ad- which can be of use in: aviation, space- vances from research to operations; craft operations, electricity supply net- • Support the emergence and establish- works, GNNS, and human health. ment of cost-effective and high-value ser- As a global organisation with relevance and vices in identifying and addressing user activity in many domains, the WMO has sev- requirements, focusing on the sectors eral motivations for engagement with SWE re- where internationally coordinated research and applications, to which its existing sponses are required, in coordination with infrastructure and influence can be greatly aviation and other major application sec- beneficial. Accordingly, as SWE events can im- tors pact communities on a global and regional • Foster the production of high-quality end scale, and because SWE phenomena observa- products and services by WMO Members, tion is best achieved through the coordination building on ISES centres and other exam- of multiple nations, “the global nature of WMO, ples of recognized services, in developing as well as its intergovernmental status, its best practices, to improve the accuracy, longstanding experience of operational coordi- reliability, interoperability, overall cost-ef- nation, its scientific basis, the potential syn- ficiency of the provision of services; ergy between meteorological and space weather related activities, the strong connec- • Improve the emergency warning proce- tion of WMO with the aeronautical sector dures and global preparedness to space through its Commission for Aeronautical weather hazards in accordance with the Meteorology (CAeM),160 and its engagement WMO Strategy on Disaster Risk Reduc- for the protection of life and property, are mation; jor assets enabling WMO to play a key role in • Promote synergy between the space this needed international coordination regard- weather and the meteorological/climate ing space weather”.161 In this sense the exist- communities and activities, and advance ing WMO architecture provides a very strong the understanding of space weather im- basis for the integration of SWE activities, and pacts on weather and climate processes; is in a position to enable a global framework for operational SWE services through facilitat- • Support training and capacity-building, ing international coordination in SWE observa- based on science and operational experi- tions and forecasting in support of its objec- ence, to develop skills in the generation tives of protecting life, property, critical infra- and interpretation of space weather prod- structures and subsequently impacted eco- ucts and services in order to allow WMO nomic activities. As such, the WMO has Members to utilize existing information in highlighted several “high-level goals” as part a meaningful way, build their own service of its ‘Four Year Plan for WMO Activities Re- capabilities, and facilitate user uptake of lated to Space Weather 2016-2019’ in achiev- new products and services. 162 ing the overarching objectives: The potential WMO activity in the area of SWE • Promote the sustained availability, qual- has been characterised into three levels: ity, and interoperability of the observa- 1. Strategic level – coordination, communi- tions that are essential to support space cation and advocacy weather warning and other services, while optimizing the overall cost of the observ- 2. Products and services level – (i) Service ing system; requirements (user needs, feasibility, demonstration, prioritisation); (ii) Best practices for products and services in various domains of industry; (iii) Training and

160 CAeM is one of the eight technical commissions of the 161 World Meteorological Organisation, 2016:5 WMO providing guidance and coordination for the WMO 162 World Meteorological Organisation, 2016:5-6 Aeronautical Meteorological Programme

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capacity building (i.e. for new providers, new meteorological information.167 This Work- users and products) ing Group comprises five work streams to develop requirements, one of which is the Space 3. System level – (i) Observation (gap anal- Weather Work Stream – under which SARPs ysis, prioritisation, coordination, standard- for the new space weather information service isation); (ii) Data management (data for- (proposed by the SWE Work Stream) were mats, meta data standards, data ex- proposed during METP’s second meeting in Oc- change); (iii) Science (analysis/forecast- tober 2016 and approved in March 2016 during, modelling, research-to-operations, ing the 204th session of the Air Navigation interaction between weather and cli- Commission (ANC).168 In addition to SARPS, mate).163 the ICAO (METP) participates in a process of In successfully managing a global framework designating space weather information service for SWE observations and applications, the providers, supported by the WMO, and to be WMO will collaborate closely with many of the endorsed by the ANC.169 organisations detailed below, including: rele- In recent times, ICAO has been progressing vant agencies and offices of the UN (e.g. efforts to establish a space weather infor- UNCOPUOS), ICAO and ICAO METP, CGMS, mation service for international air aviation.170 ISES, COSPAR, ICG, ITU etc. Following the work the Meteorology Panel (METP), established to “define and elaborate ICAO concepts and to develop ICAO provisions for aeronautical meteorological services”171, The International Civil Aviation Organisation space weather information standards are in (ICAO), a UN specialised agency, was set up development to be included within ICAO An- in 1944 to manage the administration and nex 3172 – Meteorological Service for Interna- governance of the Convention on International tional Air Navigation.173 Accordingly, new Civil Aviation. In doing so, ICAO works with space weather data and subsequent forecast- the 192 Member States of the convention, as ing capabilities will be tailored for users with well as industry, to reach consensus on Stand- consistent information regarding the potential ards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) a space weather impacts to aviation opera- 164 policy in international civil aviation . The Me- tions.174 With aviation operators being re- teorological Panel (METP) was established dur- quired to develop mitigation plans for hazard- th ing the fifth meeting of the 197 Air Naviga- ous weather, the addition of space weather in- tion Commission session (ANC 197-5), follow- formation will require further policy changes ing reorganisation of the Secretariat and the for both operators and regulators.175 As such, 165 ICAO panel structure . It is METP’s responsi- the aforementioned Annex 3 of ICAO outlines bility to “define and elaborate concepts and to four sets of requirements and guidance criteria develop ICAO provisions for aeronautical me- for space weather information providers in the teorological (MET) services consistent with op- categories of: institutional criteria, operational erational improvements envisioned by the criteria, technical criteria, and communica- Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP) (Doc 9750) tion/dissemination criteria.176 Advancing on and in keeping with the Working Arrange- this in 2018, the METP/3 meeting in April pro- ments between the International Civil Aviation vided several recommendations for action on Organization and the World Meteorological Or- areas including the optimal number of space ganization (Doc 7475)”; defining require- weather information providers and the ments, establishing standards, developing strengths and weaknesses of the prospective guidance and governance, and promoting in- providers.177 In November 2018, the Council ternational collaboration for globally harmo- of ICAO eventually selected the United States, nised meteorological services for international the Pan-European Consortium for Aviation 166 air navigation. In April 2015, the Working Space weather User Services (PECASUS, see Group for Meteorological Information and Ser- Box 6) and the consortium set up by Australia, vices Development was established under the Canada, France and Japan as the operators of METP to assess user needs, specific shortfalls, the three global SWE service.178 These se- develop operational concepts, and define the lected providers shall now start production and functional and performance requirements for

163 World Meteorological Organisation, 2016:7 170 Romero, 2018 164 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2018a 171 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016 165 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2018b 172 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2007 166 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2018b 173 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016 167 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 174 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016 Outer Space, 2017b:11 175 International Civil Aviation Organization, 2016 168 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 176 Romero, 2018 Outer Space, 2017b:12 177 Romero, 2018 169 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 178 In addition, the ICAO Council agreed that two regional Outer Space, 2017b:12 centres will be established by 2022. These will be led by

ESPI Report 68 48 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

dissemination of SWE information for civil avi- energy science and technology, playing a con- ation. The success of this service will allow avi- tributing role in achieving the UN’s Develop- ation operators to optimise flight paths and ment Goals.181 In regards to SWE, cosmic ra- planning, as well as reducing radiation risks to diation from solar and other celestial sources crew and passengers. The provision scheme contributes around half of the total natural foresees free operation for 3 years, and then background radiation exposure that effects a fee levied on the passengers' tickets. people and the environment on Earth, addi-

tionally posing significant threats to human health on manned space missions that go be- Box 6: PECASUS yond the protection of the Earth’s magneto- 182 The Pan-European Consortium for Aviation sphere. In line with this, the IAEA published Space weather User Services (PECASUS) was ‘Radiation Protection and Safety of Radiation established in response to the ICAO call for Sources: International Basic Safety Standards 183 the establishment of global SWE centres. —General Safety Requirements’ in 2014, Nine European countries forms the consor- outlining the measures and responsibilities tium: Finland (lead), Austria, Belgium, Cy- necessary to be taken by governments in pro- prus, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland tecting human health and the environment in 184 and the UK. PECASUS overarching objective specific scenarios. These standards have is to provide “civil aviation with information been jointly sponsored by a number of organ- on space weather that has the potential to isations in addition to the IAEA, including: the affect communications, navigation and the European Commission, the UN’s Food and Ag- health of passengers and crew” as specified riculture Organisation, the UN’s Environment by ICAO.179 In order to fulfil this objective, Programme, the International Labour Organi- PECASUS will: sation, the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Or- • Deliver 27/7 manned observation of ganization for Economic Cooperation and De- solar activities velopment, the Pan American Health Organi- • Issue appropriate ICAO advisories to zation, and WHO. the aviation sector • Provide a guaranteed data flow and ITU operational resilience • Host ICAO training for SWE operators The International Telecommunications Union and aviation users is the UN’s specialised agency for information • Operate a robust and comprehensive and communication technologies (ICTs) – al- IT infrastructure locating global radio spectrum and satellite or- bits, developing technical standards to ensure In February 2018, PECASUS was successfully interconnectivity, and improving access to audited by SWE experts of the WMO and in ICTs worldwide185. Following the adoption in July 2018 it organised a table top exercise November 2015 of the World Radio Communi- with airlines and air traffic organizations “to cation Conference’s (WRC) resolution on spec- test the existing procedures - such as loss of trum needs and protection of space weather communication - against a realistic space sensors, studies conducted by the Radiocom- weather scenario provided by the Met Of- munication Sector of the ITU (ITU-R) will sup- 180 fice”. Thanks to its streamlined organisa- port the WRC’s 2023 considerations of regulation and operational processes, which include tory provisions necessary to provide protec- specific feedback loops involving airlines and tion to SWE sensors operating in the appropri- air-traffic organisations, PECASUS is already ately designated radio service. The WRC has fully equipped to start operations as a global also invited ITU-R to “document the technical SWE centre as audited after the designation and operational characteristics of space by ICAO. weather sensors… with the objective of deter- mining what regulatory protection could be provided that would not place additional con- IAEA straints on incumbent services”.186 ITU addi- 187 188 The International Atomic Energy Agency tionally has two Study groups (3 and 7 ) (IAEA) is the world’s central intergovernmen- working in SWE related areas. tal forum for cooperation in the field of nuclear

South Africa and a China/Russia consortium respectively 184 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of (FMI-SPACE, 2018) Outer Space, 2017b:12-12 179 PECASUS, 2018a 185 International Telecommunication Union, 2018a 180 PECASUS, 2018b 186 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 181 Internation Atomic Energy Agency, 2018 Outer Space, 2017b:13 182 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 187 International Telecommunication Union, 2018b Outer Space, 2017b:12 188 International Telecommunication Union, 2018c 183 Internation Atomic Energy Agency, 2014

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WHO Group, with a new Terms of Reference, better reflecting the permanent nature of the SWE Set up in 1948, the overall objective of the activities within the scope of CGMS. Before World Health Organisation (WHO) is to im- this, in 2009 CGMS had established the Inter- prove human health across the globe. WHO national Radio Occultation Working Group has 194 member states globally, with offices (IROWG195)– co-sponsored by CGMS and in more than 150 countries, and works closely WMO to act as a forum for operational and rein partnerships with UN agencies, donors, search users of radio occultation data. IROWG foundations, academia, NGOs, and the private hosts a Space Weather Subgroup on behalf of sector189. Working with UNOOSA as well as na- SWE users, facilitating the use of radio occul- tional and regional space agencies, WHO sup- tation missions for both atmospheric and ion- ports the use of space and technology in ospheric observations in support of research achieving health-related sustainable develop- and operation for relevant users. ment goals and the targets for its member states. In this vein, in June 2015 WHO and UNOOSA held a meeting on the applications of 3.2.5 International Space space science and technology for public health, resulting in a reportthat identified the Weather Initiative (ISWI) need for space science and technologies in The International Space Weather Initiative achieving health goals.190 (ISWI) is a SWE-focused follow-up program to the IHY 2007, which focuses on international cooperation to progress SWE science196. 3.2.4 Coordination Group for Me- ISWI’s primary goals are to develop SWE sci- teorological Satellites (CGMS) ence through instrument deployment, analysis and interpretation of derived data, in order to The Coordination Group for Meteorological reconstruct, model and forecast. Its objectives Satellites (CGMS) is an organisation that glob- also include educating, training, and conduct- ally coordinates meteorological satellite sys- ing public outreach197. In accordance with tems through multi-lateral coordination and these goals, ISWI has an open data policy that cooperation with all meteorological satellite allows the free and open availability of all col- operators and user entities191. This involves lected data and publications to the public.198 the operating agencies of meteorological, cli- In this regard, ISWI has developed appropri- mate monitoring and environmental satellites ate data policy on:199 functioning in accordance with requirements • Data exchange and related products: All established by user communities such as the data, associated documentations and WMO. The CGMS effectively acts as a forum tools created through ISWI are made for its members aimed at planning, coordina- freely and readily accessible to users tion, technical harmonisation and exchange of worldwide. In line with this, there are no information towards safeguarding the long- restrictions on data and knowledge ex- term continuity of such satellite systems, their changes between ISWI and its users so observations, and supporting operational ap- long as users explicitly acknowledge the plications.192 appropriate sources in their products. Regarding SWE, the CGMS’s interests are two- • Data standards: ISWI data and products fold – protecting satellite systems from SWE are to be appropriately documented, pre- impacts, and guaranteeing the continuity and sented and stored in standard formats. coordination of space-based meteorological This minimises the amount of customisa- and SWE satellite operations and their derived tion necessary for different tools and in- products and services.193 To achieve these terfaces for data access and exchange. goals, the CGMS set up a Space Weather Task Furthermore, the use of standardised Team in 2015 to both identify CGMS priorities metadata models is advantageous in that for SWE activity and to integrate SWE into it allows ISWI data to be searched by CGMS activity, and in 2016 produced the other existing systems, e.g. NASA’s helio- CGMS High-Level Priority Plan 2016-2020 that physics virtual observatories, furthering included SWE objectives.194 In 2018, SWTT ISWI data dissemination capabilities was renamed as Space Weather Coordination

189 World Health Organisation, 2016 194 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites, 2016 190 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 195 International Radio Occultation Working Group, 2018 Outer Space, 2015b 196 International Space Weather Initiative, 2018 191 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites, 2018 197 International Space Weather Initiative, 2018 192 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 198 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:14 Outer Space, 2017b:14 193 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 199 International Space Weather Initiative, 2018 Outer Space, 2017b:14

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through compatibility with existing infra- tributing organisations – COSPAR led a strate- structures. gic assessment for the advancement of space weather science with the intention of better • Data archiving: Two types of data, real- meeting user needs.202 The resultant publica- time (or near real-time) data, and retro- tion, ‘Understanding space weather to shield spective data, fulfil ISWI’s operational society: a global road map for 2015-2025 needs. The first, real-time data, is used commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS’, was an for SWE forecasting or nowcasting, whilst effective review of current SWE activities and retrospective data is used for modelling or served to identify priorities for SWE research research purposes. Real-time data, how- and development, and provide recommenda- ever, if archived properly – processed, tions on future developments, ground- and documented, organised, stored, and space-based data needs, scientific challenges, maintained – can additionally be used for coordination and input on the transition to op- research and modelling purposes, and as erational services – for the near-, mid-, and such is important in ensuring the long- long-terms in order to improve overall SWE term value and utility of ISWI data. service provision to end users.203 • Data distribution and accessibility: To In order to implement this road map, provide maintain ISWIS open and accessibly data updates, and maintain flexibility to novel ad- policy, there are appropriate mechanisms vancements and societal needs, the COSPAR for data exchange from various data dis- Panel on Space Weather facilitates the estab- tribution centres, placing a responsibility lishment of International Space Weather Ac- on such centres to provide adequate data tion Teams (I-SWAT).204 I-SWAT is composed services. The most efficient is direct ac- of teams and activities, multiple teams/activi- cess of data for users directly through ties are then further grouped into I-SWAT data access portals on the internet, but clusters (8 in total) – a grouping of teams/ac- real-time data-producing instruments also tivities by certain criteria, areas of focus or ob- need effective broadcasting infrastruc- jectives: e.g. by domain/physical phenomena, ture, and methods of archiving to ensure by impact, by timing of space weather infor- data accessibility. mation, by national/regional strategic plans etc.205 I-SWAT has several overarching objectives to fulfil its supportive function to the 3.2.6 Research and Education: ILWS-COSPAR roadmap: COSPAR and ILWS • Providing a global hub for SWE community Created in 1958 by the International Council efforts for Science (ICSU), the Committee on Space • Creating a working environment to en- Research (COSPAR) was established with the courage active participation and the for- objective of promoting space science research mation of novel leads and ideas through internationally with a focus on the free ex- inclusivity and information-sharing change of information and results, as well as providing an open forum for scientists to dis- • Enabling collaboration in SWE research, cuss issues surrounding space research.200 model and tool developing, testing, eval- COSPAR established a Panel on Space Weather uation and utilization of SWE data (PSW) in 1998 aimed at fostering cooperation • Facilitating incorporation of the latest rein SWE research and bridging the gap between search in SWE into forecasting and analy- the research and application communities – sis applications, rapidly addressing users’ additionally encouraging the development of needs and improving upon services. predictive techniques for space environment change and acting as an expert advisory body • Supporting a channel for the voices of the to the COSPAR Scientific Commissions on SWE global community and a bottom-up ap- related matters.201 proach to innovation and improvements. Together with the Steering Committee of In- • Incorporating the SWE community in stra- ternational Living With a Star (ILWS) – an ini- tegic planning, i.e. roadmap updates, tiative established to “stimulate, strengthen and coordinate space research” with its con-

200 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 202 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:15 Outer Space, 2017b:16 201 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2018a; 203 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Outer Space, 2017b:16 Space, 2017b:15 204 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2018b 205 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2018c

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based on user requirements and the latest An overview of I-SWAT’s role and relations scientific advances.206 with other international entities operating in the field of SWE is provided in Figure 13.

Figure 13: I-SWAT roles and relations with international entities (source: Kuznetsova, 2017)

the objective of expanding international cooperation and the development of improved 3.2.7 Other International Service near-Earth SWE forecasting capabilities Providers through space-based Earth and solar observations.209 This has sparked multi-pronged ef- Finally, it is important to acknowledge the ma- forts to increase coordination between U.S. jor national data & service providers contrib- agencies and internationally – e.g. FEMA,210 uting to international cooperation in the ad- the Federal Interagency Response Plan in- vancement of SWE services. A list is provided cludes a long-term power-outage annex; and in Appendix A.5, but among them specific at- FERC211 issued for the development of reliabil- tention must be placed on U.S. policies and ity standards for grids and geomagnetic dis- stakeholders, as the U.S. not only remains a turbances.212 benchmark for worldwide development but In terms of strategy, the National Space also plays an important role in the framework Weather Strategy213, issued in 2015, specifies of international cooperation and exchange actions, and timescales for actions to be taken with Europe. by U.S. Federal agencies to advance preparation and responsive capabilities to SWE U.S. Policy and Strategy storms. Six goals are outlined in this Strategy, including improving assessment, modelling In the U.S., the Department of State maintains and prediction of impacts on critical infrastruc- a dual “coordination and clearance” role in in- tures, as well as cultivating international coop- ternational space cooperation; leading on gov- eration on SWE matters; e.g. collaboration on ernment-government framework agreements data sharing, research, products and services in its coordination role, whilst developing and extreme SWE preparedness.214 agency-agency implementing agreements through its clearance role.207 These active Furthermore, an Executive order was issued roles have been reflected in U.S. policy and by the President of the U.S. on preparing the strategy in recent years, with the US National nation for SWE impacts, outlining the roles and Space Policy208 published in 2010 expressing

206 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2018d 211 FERC: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 207 Krausmann et al., 2016:6 212 Krausmann et al., 2016:5 208 White House, 2010 213 National Science and Technology Council, 2015 209 Krausmann et al., 2016:5 214 Krausmann et al., 2016:5-6 210 FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency

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responsibilities of federal agencies in “prepar- risen.221 SPWC products are tailored to differ- edness, response and recovery and their au- ent user communities and infrastructure sec- thority to direct, suspend or control critical in- tors. frastructures before, during and after a space- weather event”.215 Department of Defence – 557th NASA Weather Wing The 557th Weather Wing222, formerly (pre- The National Aeronautical and Space Admin- 2015) known as the Air Force Weather Agency, istration (NASA) primarily conducts its SWE- is the U.S.’s leading military meteorology cen- related missions for scientific research pur- tre. It collects, analyses and provides accurate poses, although these missions provide sub- and timely situational awareness products and stantial data and information that is addition- services to appropriate national military seg- ally provided to, and used by, civilian and mil- ments. To meet its user needs for the Depart- itary customers. Whilst this provision of SWE ment of Defence (DoD), the Air Force has ac- data by NASA is invaluable, NASA does not cess to a number of space-based observations provide SWE services itself.216 Organisations systems, i.e. the Defence Meteorological pro- such as NOAA’s SWPC, the 557th Weather gram, as well as outsourcing additional data Wing (AFWA), as well as agencies outside of products from NOAA. the U.S., disseminate the raw data foundations made available by NASA to generate SWE services. American Commercial Space Weather Association NOAA Formed by commercial organizations as a re- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin- sult of the 2010 Space Weather Workshop, the istration (NOAA) is a scientific agency of the American Commercial Space Weather Associ- U.S. that conducts research on the climate, ation (ASWA) represents private-sector com- weather, oceans, and coasts to provide vari- mercial interests related to SWE223. As a for- ous products and services to relevant stake- mal association of commercial member com- holders217. The Space Weather Prediction Cen- panies, its objective is to promote SWE risk tre (SWPC) is NOAA’s specialised SWE fore- mitigation for critical infrastructure by: casting branch.218 The SWPC is responsible for operational SWE products and services, acting • Providing SWE data and services neces- as the official national source, providing sary to mitigate risks to critical infrastruc- watches, warnings, alerts and summaries for tures; 219 its user communities. The SWPC provides • Taking a SWE advisory role for govern- over 39 types of operational products and ser- ment agencies; vices for worldwide users, utilising more than 1,400 types of SWE data from its own instru- • Representing commercial SWE capabili- ments as well as a network of partners – in- ties, both nationally and internationally; cluding NASA, the USAF and USGS’s – ground- In recent years ACSWA’s membership has and space-based systems. been rapidly growing, and as of Spring 2018 it The services that SPWC provides, in cases of maintained a roster of 19 companies. In terms solar flares and geomagnetic storms, come in of activity, ASCWA organises and participates the form of texts and graphical products in ac- in a number of meetings and sessions – e.g. cordance with their scaling categorisation sys- the Annual NOAA-CSWIG/ACSWA Summit tems (similar to how hurricanes or earth- meetings, ‘Growing the Space Weather Enter- quakes are scaled). For major radiation prise’ sessions at SWW – in addition to suc- storms, forecasts services can be provided cessfully spurring action by making recom- within 24 hours of the event impact.220 As mendations to NOAA’s SWPC to expand its ca- mentioned, SPWC’s services are provided on a pabilities through NOAA’s Small Business In- subscription basis, created in 2005, which has novative Research program, as well as 224 seen a sharp customer increase as sectorial sponsorship of various other initiatives . awareness of SWE associated risks has

215 Krausmann et al., 2016:6 220 Krausmann et al., 2016:10 216 National Research Council, 2008:36 221 Krausmann et al., 2016:11 217 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 222 557th Weather Wing, 2018 2018d 223 American Commercial Space Weather Association, 218 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2018 2018e 224 Ibid. 219 National Research Council, 2008:37

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dedicated service providers are active, the 3.3 Summary: Status identification of the operator and the procurement source has not yet been addressed. For of Supply in the Eu- these reasons, ESA currently has a primary role in all technological aspects of SWE service creation and provision, with the partial excep- ropean and Inter- tion of some activities funded through H2020. national Context As of 2018, ESA’s network has offered over 140 separate products providing scientific and pre-operational applications for 24 (out of the 3.3.1 Europe 39) services that are intended to be delivered to users. These services are now being man- Over the past decade, European countries and aged in a “pre-operational” framework, with institutions have been actively contributing to subscription services issuing alerts depending the advancement of SWE research and are on the interest of the users. Critically, these now progressing on the research-to-operation notifications “provide information on what is (R2O) path. Most SWE-related activities and happening in space but not how the space en- capabilities have been developed and carried vironment will affect, e.g., spacecraft opera- out by individual national infrastruc- tions”.225 Overall, European SWE services, at tures/groups. These have remained somehow both national and pan-European level (ESA disconnected, with the exceptions of the initi- and EU), are still far from the level of maturity atives and programmes led by the EU or ESA. reached by their U.S counterparts. In meeting the requirements associated with the provision • Through its FP7 (2007-2013) and H2020 of fully-fledged services tailored to the needs (2014-2020), the EU has funded over 30 of end users, there are still some technologi- research projects, which have led to key cal, market, and organisational necessities results in scientific research, models, and that need to be fulfilled. These will be detailed services development, and, more broadly, in the next chapter. in supporting the R2O path. • Through its SSA programme (SWE and LGR), ESA has been pulling existing as- 3.3.2 International Context sets and capabilities together into a fed- International collaboration is a well-estab- erated virtual network for the delivery of lished tradition in the area of SWE research, SWE applications to end-users and has but as stressed by the UN Expert Group on started the development of European SWE Space Weather, for an international frame- instrumentations/mission capabilities work for space weather services to become ef- (space-based capability). fective there is still a need “to strengthen the While the EU and ESA have generally operated reliability of space systems and their ability to separately in their SWE-related activities, their respond to the impact of adverse space efforts have led to the development of im- weather; to develop a space weather road portant SWE assets in terms of ground- and map for international coordination and infor- space-based infrastructure, physics-based mation exchange on space weather events and models, and databases, as well as data prod- their mitigation, through risk analysis and as- ucts providing applications to a variety of end- sessment of user needs; to recognize space users. In pushing forward these develop- weather as a global challenge and the need to ments, both the EU and ESA have adopted an address the vulnerability of society as a whole; integrated approach that makes simultaneous to increase awareness through developed use of technology-push and user-driven mod- communication, capacity-building and out- els for service development. This approach has reach; and to identify governance and cooper- led to a clear understanding of the application ation mechanisms to support this objec- domains, the expected users within these do- tive”.226 Beyond cooperative measures con- mains, and the different preliminary user re- cerning the organisational, scientific and tech- quirements for the delivery of SWE services. nical aspects of SWE science, observational data products, and services, sufficient pro- As dedicated service providers have not yet gress also needs to be made in developing the been identified within Europe, ESA maintains market enablers, i.e. through increasing the the responsibility for both development and awareness of potential user communities current provision of pre-operational services. through capacity building and outreach.227 Whilst ESA will retain a development role once

225 Krausmann et al., 2016 227 Ibid:8 226 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b:1

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Currently, as outlined in 5.2.5, ISWI conducts • Promote the fast transition of new scien- activities to promote such collaboration on re- tific research into improved and more ac- search, instrument and data interoperability, curate space weather services that meet as well as education and outreach. Addition- user needs. ally, the UNCOPUOS has a history of promot- Such a mechanism should consider the promo- ing cooperation and collaboration on space action and facilitation of:232 tivities, and since the agreement at the fourth- ninth session of the STSC of 2012, SWE has • Oversight of coordination and communi- been introduced as a regular item on the cation between stakeholders in order to agenda.228 Building on these existing frame- reduce duplicated efforts. This oversight works, and looking forward, UNSPACE+50 has must recognise that many SWE actors been acknowledged as an ideal opportunity to function under their states and national strengthen action in accordance with global authorities, focusing on coordination and collaboration with relevant stakeholders for communication rather than governance or the period of 2018-2030.229 In line with this, it implementation. has also been noted that there is a “pressing need to define a mechanism for a future coor- • Establishing an international coordination dinated approach for actions within and be- group for SWE, which would report to tween States, United Nations entities, other COPUOS through the Scientific and Tech- international intergovernmental and non-gov- nical Subcommittee, effectively replacing ernmental organizations and space weather the current position of the Expert group stakeholders, including academia and indus- on Space Weather, expanding on its cur- try”.230 rent role to additionally provide recommendations to the Scientific and Technical Granted that currently there is still fragmenta- Subcommittee for the consideration of tion between the stakeholders working in the COPUOS. This group should include repre- field of space weather, a mechanism for global sentatives from relevant international coordination, monitoring and guidance is still agencies and bodies of stakeholders to necessary for the development of international implement SWE services. operational SWE services. In achieving the objectives of Thematic Priority 4, it is clear that • The international coordination group a mechanism is necessary to:231 should have a mandate to develop high- level coordination on SWE activity, to • Stimulate and support scientific research guide SWE policy, and promote the imple- with a view to achieving fast progress in mentation of SWE guidelines and best the global ability to accurately predict practices. space weather events; • COSPAR should have a scientific support • Stimulate cooperation among states for function to this new coordination group. the free exchange of space weather data and forecasts; • An extension of the role of the Expert Group on Space Weather in actively or- • Increase communication between the sci- ganising outreaching meetings and work- entific and space weather service commu- shops for the international SWE research nities, as well as industry and users; and service communities.

228 Ibid:10 231 Ibid:13 229 Ibid:10 232 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of 230 Ibid:11 Outer Space, 2017b:11-13

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4. Towards Operational SWE Services in Europe

Building on the status of European and inter- When performing a capability assessment by national SWE activities in relation to the three measuring the overall level of service maturity main service enablers discussed in Chapter 2, (here defined as the operational implementa- (namely the technological, market, and organ- tion of the service constituents) it becomes ev- isational enablers) this chapter elaborates on ident that the major issue is not simply asso- the steps that need to be taken to ensure a ciated with to the transition from the pre-op- smooth transition towards an operational SWE erational to the operational stage; rather, it is service delivery that is capable of meeting Eu- first and foremost associated with the maturity ropean stakeholders’ needs. More specifically, of the constituent elements, namely the data, this chapter will: models, and data products underpinning the service (see Figure 14). • Identify the technical conditions to be met for an operational service. • Define the market conditions to be met for a commercial service. Data Software Availability • Reflect on the most appropriate organisa- Maturity tional setting for the delivery of operational services Product • Propose elements of a European roadmap Maturity in a user-driven approach.

4.1 Addressing the + Operational Implemenation = Technical Gaps Service Maturity

Whereas the achievements reached by Euro- Figure 14: Advancing Service Maturity: Key Components pean stakeholders in the span of the last decade (2008-2018) are certainly remarkable, in In order to provide fully operational SWE ser- providing self-sufficient European SWE services to end-users, and to meet their require- vices, there are still several technological gaps ments, there are several technological neces- that need to be addressed. In this section the sities that form the foundation of service pro- analysis is focused mostly on ESA, which has vision. This primarily entails both ground- and been federating relevant capabilities of na- space-based systems, used in SWE observational member states. However, it is worth re- tion. Second, are the various systems utilised membering that not all ESA MS have sub- in regard to data acquisition, dissemination, scribed the SWE segment of ESA SSA pro- processing and modelling, storage and archiv- gramme and that at national level some coun- ing, and the interfaces (e.g. graphical) tries do provide operational services to serve through which the end user interacts with such critical infrastructure. Therefore, national initi- services. And third, are the processes in which atives are mentioned were relevant. For an this data is transformed into products and the overview of SWE assets (data, models, instru- products into services that the user receives. ments and services) in Europe please refer to the Space Weather Resource Catalogue.233 For each of these building blocks (data, software and products) there is still an evident

233 Committee on Space Research, 2018

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mismatch in Europe in meeting the targeted wealth of activity in regards to ground-based objectives. In many instances, these mis- SWE observations, several Member States matches fall within the scope of Period 3 (P3) have voiced concerns about the ageing of the of the ESA SSA Programme SWE segment de- ground infrastructure and the need to replace velopment plan for 2017-2020 and H2020 ac- and maintain it. In addition, there are some tivities, but often exceed them. evident gaps in meeting the observational requirements, particularly in terms of space- based observations. The most important 4.1.1 Filling Data Gaps space-based observation /measurement requirements identified are presented in Table In terms of data availability, issues persist 15 below. with respect to ground- and space-based observations. While Europe can count on a

Classification for ser- Observation /Measurement Instrument needed vice delivery Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) properties High priority Magnetometer and dynamics Solar wind velocity, bulk density and temper- High priority Plasma Analyser ature Magnetic field mapping of the photosphere High priority Magnetograph Intensity Mapping of the outer corona High priority Coronagraph Intensity Mapping of the lower corona High priority EUV imager Intensity Mapping of the Heliosphere High priority Heliospheric imager X-ray flux monitoring High priority X-ray monitor Energy distribution and flux dynamics with E> High priority (from L1) Radiation monitor 10 MeV Detection of solar winds ions with E=30 Medium Energy particle High priority (from L1) KevV/nuc to 1 MeV/nuc spectrometer Solar wind electron flux and energy distribu- Medium Energy particle High priority (from L1) tion with E = 30 KeV to 8 MeV spectrometer Detection of radio burst/flare signatures and Enhancing Radio burst spectrograph associated outward expanding shocks Solar wind ion flux and energy distribution Medium Energy particle Enhancing with E= 1 to 10 MeV/nuc spectrometer Solar wind ion flux and energy distribution Enhancing…. Radiation monitor with E > 10 MeV/nuc

Table 15: Space-based observations and instruments requirements (source: Luntama et al., 2017)

Whilst many of these measurements and rela- case remain key for Europe for improving tive data are – and can be – made available by timeliness, continuity, availability and reliabil- international partners, it is clear that if the ob- ity – but to highlight the importance of having jective of the ESA SWE programme is “to pro- guaranteed access to SWE data, also in case vide for its customers and end users a non- of changes in the current data policy of inter- dependent source of space weather observed national partners, as well as an independent data and processed information based on rel- generation of SWE data not available to other evant ground based and space-based sensors foreign counterparts. In fact, it has been noted and appropriate data processing elements”, that the take-up of operational services (to then the deployment of new European instru- serve critical infrastructure) at national and ments and systems becomes absolutely criti- European level may be hampered if those are cal.234 to be provided (on the basis of foreign service providers, that are not tailored to national This is not to downplay the relevant role of in- specificities or requirements. In addition, it ternational cooperation – which will in any should not go unnoticed that many of the

234 European Space Agency, 2011

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measurements identified by ESA would pro- The above-listed requirements can be fulfilled vide novel data that will be used for service through either hosting secondary payloads in creation in both the European and interna- larger missions or through dedicated missions, tional context.235 as summarised in Figure 15.

Observational Requirements

Hosted Payloads Dedicated Stellites (EDRS, MTG, METOP- (L1 & L5 mission) SG, ect)

LEO MEO and HEO GEO 2x Magnetometer 2X Magnetometer 2X Magnetometer 2x Radiation Monitor 2x Radiation Monitor 2x Radiation Monitor 2x Plasma Analyser 2x Plasma Analyser 2x Plasma Analyser 2x Micro-particle detector 2x Auroral Imager 2x Micro-particle detector 2x Atomic Oxigen Sensor 2x Micro-particle detector 2x NNeutral Atoms Analyser

Figure 15: Instruments for Space-based Observational Requirements

More specifically, as mentioned in Chapter 3.3, CMES238) and in-situ data (e.g. solar wind ESA plans to fill these gaps with the envisaged speed, density, temperature, and pressure239) L1 / L5 missions and the D3S. are considered to be “mandatory for SWE services”240. The continued availability of SEL data on L1 will potentially be consolidated Lagrange Missions L1 and L5 through agreements with international part- In the current phase, ESA’s SSA Programme ners such as the U.S.241 (P3, 2017-2020) activities are being coordi- The other crucial SWE observation Mission on nated with the U.S. (NOAA, NASA) to progress L5, located 60 degrees behind Earth, will pro- the development of the potential L1/15 SWE vide a means of monitoring Earth-orientated 236 missions. The availability of SWE observa- CMEs from the side, as to allow for more pre- tional data from these points, and fortifying cise estimates of the speed and direction of the collaboration with international partners to en- CMEs242. L5 measurements will complement able data continuity through these missions, is those of the L1 mission, additionally providing essential for future SWE service provision. raw data on solar corona monitoring, helio- L1’s position is situated in the solar wind up- spheric imaging, solar disc magnetic field, EUV stream from the Earth, allowing for observa- imaging; as well as in-situ measurements of tional measurements of SWE coming towards solar wind, magnetic field, charged particles 243 the Earth.237 L1’s Sun-Earth Line (SEL) solar and hot plasma. Once implemented, the L5 monitoring data (e.g. solar disc, solar corona, mission will provide the necessary data to and SEPs associated with solar flares and

235 Luntama et al., 2017 240 European Space Agency, 2016 236 Bobrinksy, 2017 241 Luntama et al., 2015 237 European Space Agency, 2017b 242 European Space Agency, 2017b 238 Ibid. 243 Luntama et al., 2016; Bobrinsky, 2017 239 Ibid.

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“substantially improve SWE forecasting capa- where SWE measurements are taken, ESA’s bilities”.244 SSA D3S system aims to produce a network of hosted payload, Small Sat, and potentially Cube Sat instruments, typically monitoring Distributed SWE Sensor System particles and fields within the magnetosphere (D3S) and Auroral images245. These hosted payloads will take in-situ measurements in LEO, MEO or To gain a comprehensive view of the Earth- LEO, with candidate “host” satellites of space- Sun environment, it will be also necessary to craft including METOP SG, MTG, Telecom, Gal- “capture the state of the magnetic field and ileo, in addition to dedicated Small Sat and the particle distribution in a sufficiently large Cub Sat missions246 number of sampling points around the Earth, such that it allows state-monitoring and mod- Overall, the schedule plan of ESA’s Lagrange elling of the involved processes with sufficient missions and the D3S system is detailed in Fig- accuracy and timeliness” (Kraft et al., 2018). ure 16. In increasing the number of sampling points

Figure 16: ESA SWE Space Segment Schedule Plan (credit: European Space Agency, 2016)

As discussed in Chapter 3, while there are 4.1.2. Improving Software Ma- many examples showing European countries’ turity ability to provide operational services in certain sectors (e.g. the aviation services pro- Whilst these observational data gaps are com- vided by the PECAUS consortium, ground in- pletely necessary for SWE service provision, frastructure services by the FMI, space opera- from a service and end-user perspective, the tions-related services by the French Air raw data itself is essentially void of utility until Forces, etc.), in most of these cases the relia- processed and modelled into value-added bility of the predictions remain limited. False products and services. alarms are very detrimental to users, such that many users prefer receiving a posteriori Modelling capabilities, at both national and Eu- confirmation of an SWE event (to limit the ef- ropean level, are still far from the level of ma- fort in searching for the cause of a service turity reached by the U.S. counterpart and downtime) rather than a false alarm. In this needed to deliver reliable SWE services in Eu- sense it can be stated that the current service rope.

244 European Space Agency, 2016 246 European Space Agency, 2016 245 European Space Agency, 2017b

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provision in Europe is still in an observa- In addition to this, from the multitude of SWE tion/post-processing context rather than in a observation systems and types of data there predictive one. will be a continued need to put in place coordinated techniques for interoperability and This is primarily due to the still small number federation, formatting and archiving, as well of inputs used in the construction of models, as methods for dissemination, presentation, as well as in the still stove-piped nature of cur- and user interface platforms.254 rent modelling activities.247 Even for countries with strong modelling capacities, such as Fin- In bridging gaps in these areas, the EU will land (which is home to the Grand Unified Mag- open a H2020 call in 2019 (SU-SPACE-22- netosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Simula- SEC-2019 - Space Weather) that will focus on tion),248 providing SWE forecasting remain addressing the “development of modelling ca- challenging.249250 Indeed, it can be even ar- pabilities and/or the delivery of prototype ser- gued that no single model can yet fully predict vices able to interpret a broad range of obser- SWE events in a reliable manner,251 and that vations of the Sun’s corona and magnetic field, a breakthrough in the construction of physics- of the Sun-Earth interplanetary space, and of based models will be needed, as happened in the Earth magnetosphere/ionosphere coupling the past for meteorological models. reliance on existing observation capacities Proposals will address application domains Hence, in the coming years, all European that may include space as well as terrestrial stakeholders should ideally continue to con- infrastructure. Proposals will include architec- duct activities not only to further the develop- tural concepts of possible European space ment of empirical models, but also to make weather services in relation to the application breakthroughs in physics-based models (e.g. domains addressed, and they will demonstrate heliospheric modelling, ionospheric scintilla- complementarity to and, if relevant, utilize, tion, 3D modelling of the morphology of the precursor Space Weather services already ionosphere) and combine new physics-based available through the Space Situational and empirical models so as to improve still in- Awareness programme of ESA, and take into sufficient forecasting techniques. On the ESA account global space weather service develop- side, efforts should also include the developments by the WMO.”255 As with previous calls ment of the required models & tools utilising funding the development of modelling capabil- L5 mission data. The use of L5 data in CME ities (see Chapter 3.1.3), the resources asso- propagation models will indeed provide further ciated with this call have the potential to insight into the benefits of the future L5 mis- greatly improve forecasting capabilities by sion, whilst crucially demonstrating and refin- making a major leap forward in the use of ing heliospheric model development through physics-based and empirical models. assimilated data from multiple vantage points.252 As for ESA, the SSA programme has planned further development of the federated data re- More broadly, as also highlighted in a study led pository systems at the SWE Data Centre in by the JRC, over the next few years: 253 Redu, the five ESCs across European coun- • Physical models should be improved or - tries, and the SWE SSCC located at the Space where necessary - new models developed Pole in Belgium. Continuing through P3 and P4 to allow a better prediction of CME arrival of the SWE programme, efforts should made times, an earlier determination of the in- to consolidate SWE Data Centre enhancement terplanetary magnetic field orientation, and the utilisation of data products. This pri- and an estimate of the probability and size marily entails improving data storage, brows- of the likely impacts. ing and retrieval capabilities, whilst fortifying links with federated data repositories256. Fur- • Forecasting capabilities should be en- thermore, development of level 1 processing hanced to provide regional or local fore- chains is being forwarded for SWE hosted pay- casts on the severity and duration of ex- load missions data, i.e. NGRM and SOSMAG treme space weather to ensure the most missions, regarding data ingestion, pro- appropriate operator response. cessing, dissemination, and storage. While

247 The different types of perturbations (X-ray flares, SEPs, 251 Messerotti, 2017 CMEs, coronal holes) find their correspondence in rather 252 European Space Agency, 2017c:7 separated modelling communities. Further splitting of mod- 253 Krausmann et al., 2016 elling activity occurs for regions closer to Earth (magneto- 254 Interestingly this is one of the key recommendations put sphere, ionosphere / thermosphere, Earth atmosphere and forward by the COSPAR Roadmap to 2025, according to surface) because of traditional scientific domains, specific which there is a need to “standardize (meta-) data and customer needs, as well as the physical processes in- product metrics and harmonise access to data and model volved. Folini, 2018 archives. 248 See Annex A.4 255 European Commission, 2017a 249 Academy of Finland, 2018 256 European Space Agency, 2016 250 Palmroth et al., 2014

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these activities serve to strengthen the avail- 4.1.3 Advancing Product and Ser- ability of data from European missions, allowing for data and product searching and re- vice Maturity trieval, additional agreements for data from international missions (e.g. GOES, ACE, Because the above-identified objectives in DSCOVR and GK2A) are being formulated. data availability and software maturity are yet to be reached, the overall maturity of SWE As for the ESCs, extensions for the Solar products – the derived data generated using Weather, Space Radiation, Heliospheric SWE models/tools and core components con- Weather, Geomagnetic Conditions and Iono- tributing to the delivery of one or more SWE spheric Weather ESCs are already scheduled services – remains hindered. to be implemented during 2019.257 The efforts in developing empirical models and improving This is not always the case when looking at forecasting techniques through more accurate national service provision (see Annex A.4 for modelling tools, however, should ideally be an overview). However, when looking at the continued in the next phase (P4) of ESA’s SWE ESA network, which has thus far federated programme, together with the necessary vali- over 170 data products from 32 participating 260 dation and verification tasks. Indeed, “SWE institutions of 14 European countries, it services may be built upon diverse data emerges that several data products are still sources, models, and processing tools, all re- missing (e.g. products for some geographical lying on underpinning IT/network infrastruc- regions such as the Artic and Mediterranean ture for their availability. Understanding and region) which, depending on the measure- monitoring the performance of all the different ment, require further observational systems or data sources, models, and processing tools, increased computational capabilities from data 261 will also be an essential task to provide ser- already available. vices which can be utilised with confidence by In addition, a number of currently available the intended user communities”258 derived data products do not meet the tar- Similarly, coordinated strategic investment geted requirement (in terms e.g. of accuracy into developing scientific and computational and timeliness) and still need to be combined capability and know-how in the EU should be and customised with software tools and tech- explored within the framework of the next MFF nical reports to create the envisaged services. of the EU. A route that – in complementarity As a result, many of the pre-operational ser- with the development of physics-based model vices already identified by ESA are yet to be – could be ideally explored to improve model- introduced (see Figure 17 for a list of the ser- ling capabilities may be offered by machine vices that are still pending and Chapter 3.2 for and deep learning, two increasingly advancing the ones currently available). fields of computer science that use statistical In this sense, further research and action to techniques to give computer systems the abil- introduce, tailor, and combine new or existing ity to learn and improve the performance of data products into value-added services re- data mining, prediction, and decision making. mains a key objective that should be pursued th As also discussed during the 15 ESWW of in the near future. In order to advance product 2017, “in the field of space weather, machine maturity and ensure a match between availa- learning techniques may be applicable to some ble products and the targeted requirement, of the most intractable prediction problems objectives to be reached during the next phase such as solar eruption triggering, geomagnetic of ESA SWE (P4), should include not only the storm intensity, and solar energetic particle addition and combination of the products and 259 events”. While machine learning develop- tools not yet available, but also, and perhaps ments in the field of SWE are ongoing, efforts more importantly, the verification, validation could ideally be made for moving forward into and enhancement of existing products through the realm of “deep learning,” using very large coordination among different service providers neural networks with massive datasets such as that ensures consistency of e.g. forecasts (as the full SDO dataset and outputs from full- done, for instance, by the MOSWOC, which co- physics models of the Sun-Earth system. ordinates with NOAA’s SWPC) as well as through the pre-operational exploitation of the SWE System.

257 European Space Agency, 2017c:4-6 261 For a list of current data products provided by the SSA 258 Glover et al., 2018 SWE segment to respective service domains, as well as 259 Berger et al., 2018 products, tools and services that are not yet provided, 260 Note that additional data products are available both not compare the product catalogue with the system require- only in the countries not participating in the ESA pro- ment document: http://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/user-do- gramme. mains

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Towards this, the utilisation “of a process identification, and feed into longer term defi- whereby SWE products and services are tested nition and development planning (see Figure with real users in the loop” is – and will con- 18) which, in turn will ultimately offer im- tinue to be – of utmost importance, as the re- proved products and services.262 sults of these test campaigns can lead to gap Spacecraft Launch Space Human Space General Data Operation Operation Surveillance & Flight (SCH) Services (GEN) (SCO) (LAU) Tracking (SST)

Increased Crew In-flight monitoring of Atmospheric Virtual space weather Post-event analysis Radiation Exposure radiation effects in estimates for drag modelling system Risk sensitive electronics calculations

Forecast of Guaranteed data Estimate of radiation In-orbit environment geomagnetic and service for third- effects in sensitive and effects forecast solar indices for drag party/added-value electronics calculation service providers

Nowcast of Forecast of radiation Space Weather Mission risk analysis ionospheric group storms Support Material delay

Atmospheric density forecast

Risk estimate of service disruption caused by ionospheric scintillations

Risk estimate of micro-particle impacts

Figure 17: ESA SWE Services Under Development

User (ESCs) could play an increasingly significant feedback and Product and role in increasing product and, consequently, (pre) Service service maturity, i.e. by conducting activities operation Development such as the tailoring of product presentation to experience best meet end user requirements.263 Also the SWE Service Coordination Centre (SSCC) should reinforce its role in developing adequate user interfaces, working in conjunction with the ESCs to present data products in a communicable and utilisable form.264 In (pre) Acceptance operations Test The SSCC’s role will be further detailed in the following section concerning market aspects, since it has a strong focus on dealing and developing interactions with user communities. Integration What is important to highlight here is that into SWE portal once the above-identified gaps are addressed, the principal issues in reaching service ma- Figure 18: Product and Service Development Lifecycle turity will be the operational implementation (source: Glover & Luntama, 2017) of the demonstrated services. However, while moving from basic research All ESA SWE centres will have a role to play in and development to a demonstrated or pre- this process. The extension, and potential cre- operational service is very much a matter of ation of additional, Expert Services Centres technological readiness, as highlighted on the

262 Glover and Luntama, 2016; Glover and Luntama, 2017 264 European Space Agency, 2017c: 4 263 European Space Agency, 2017c: 4-5

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vertical axis of Figure 19, transitioning from a tional service is in essence both technologi- demonstrated service to an operational one cally feasible and sustainable in its wider or- requires both technological readiness and ganisational and funding prerequisites, as well more crucially its sustainability; a fully opera- as in terms of its market/user dimensions.265

Sustainability

Long-term sus- Operational tainability Service

Demonstrated Pre-Operational No sustaina- Concept Feasibility bility Application Service

Concept Operational Technology Technology readiness

Figure 19: Operational service creation in terms of sustainability and technology readiness (source: Mathieu, 2009)

The issue of creating an operational service Beyond the user-community development di- from a demonstrated application highlights the mensions, advancing the market aspects of most current and prominent problems in the SWE services also raises questions concerning creation of fully operational SWE services, the structure of the value chain, ultimately consequentially further attention will be paid “Who pays?”, placing a distinction between the to this particular transition of phases, address- user and the paying customer of a service un- ing mostly the gaps beyond the technological der alternative scenarios. These two core as- aspects of operational service provision (i.e. pects are further addressed herein. the market and organisational gaps). 4.2.1 Fortifying Relations with 4.2 Addressing De- End-Users In regard to the user community, many ac- mand/Market Re- tions that can be ideally taken by both the EU and ESA. On the EU’s side, the awareness rais- quirements ing activities conducted by the JRC, which have greatly contributed to enhancing cross- sectoral discussion and communication, could Regarding the demand/market enablers, be expanded in the coming years, for instance, within the European context both the EU and through the organisation of table-top exer- ESA have adopted an integrated approach that cises with the civil protection community; makes simultaneous use of technology-push through the development of framework for a and user-driven models for service delivery. more structured communication between the This approach has led to a clear understanding scientific community and end-users, and of the application domains, the expected users through to sustained collection of user feed- within these domains, and the different pre- back to feed into a European SWE roadmap. liminary user requirements. This said, the continued research and understanding of SWE ef- As for ESA, in developing interaction, feed- fects on specific domains, the awareness of back, and help services to the user communi- SWE risks and impacts, and the benefits of ties, a recent extension to the SWE Service SWE services, still constitute a gap that should Coordination Centre (SSCC) was presented be further addressed. Platforms for engage- within P3. Originally established in the Prepar- ment with user communities, not only in pro- atory Programme, advanced more so during moting awareness of SWE impacts, but with P2, the SSCC was set up to “provide the first feedback and extensive tailoring of services line of user support with respect to the SWE with and for user communities, are necessary. precursor services, including helpdesk and

265 Please refer to the general definition attached to services in Ch. 1

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user management functions”.266 During P2 the (2017), provides an interesting framework for SSCC had a continued mandate and role in furthering development of SWE service design strengthening its role with the user communi- and provision through stakeholders’ engage- ties, maintaining an overview of the SWE ser- ment. In fact, the process of service design vice network, and providing a link between the and creation presented is extremely net- ESCs. This role was reiterated in P3 as the worked, both in the sense that it encourages SSCC was extended until the end of 2017, fur- cross disciplinary and user engagement, but ther collecting user feedback in order to refine also in that at any stage of development there end-user strategies and the forward-looking is room to revert back to a prior stage as part SWE service roadmap.267 of a continuous process of redesign and reas- sessment. Given that the technological and market aspects of SWE services are certain to grow and Although DSM is specifically applied to the de- evolve in the coming years, it is apparent that sign of climate services, the overall framework a continued relationship with user communi- has implications for developers and governors ties is needed to provide continuous updates to address the challenges in the creation of and tailoring of services as and when advance- SWE services and broader space-based ser- ments are made. This places a necessity on vices in general. Some key features of recom- the existence of a body with the role of the mendations presented by Christel et al., in- SSCC in facilitating the various dimensions of clude: (1) identification of users through con- user interaction with developers and service sultations about the accuracy and utility of operators. Whilst ESA will maintain its devel- services for users; (2) encouraging an inter- opment role, the establishment of separate disciplinary attitude throughout the service service provision entities may dictate a shift of creation process, uniting scientists, engineers this user engagement role to such an en- and users for mutual understanding of objec- tity/entities. Otherwise, until external service tives; (3) forming adequate service provider- providers are identified and whilst the organi- user interfaces (e.g. user engagement meth- sational status quo persists, it can be recom- ods, surveys, consultations, interviews, design mended that the SSCC’s role be continued workshops) to increase mutual understanding through P4. of user requirements to reflect provider tasks and amendments to the service; (4) joining Irrespective of the eventual enactment of a scientific soundness, functionality and aes- different framework (which will be addressed thetics through visual representations; (5) an in Section 4.3), what is important to highlight effective dissemination and engagement strat- is the existence of a well-defined process for egy, i.e. through visual design to help users SWE capabilities assessment, improvement, “capture and understand the information pro- and deployment that brings together scien- vided by a climate service as simply and tists, application developers, mission special- quickly as possible”; (6) inclusion of user feed- ists, and infrastructure engineers with end-us- back and co-design strategies, particularly in ers of SWE services.268 Clearly, the more in- the development of user interface platforms tertwined the various stakeholders, the more and additional functionality necessities.269 The effective will be the offered services in meeting three main phases identified by the DSM and users’ need. various aspects of service design that can Towards this goal, the Design Study Method- have feedback to a prior phase at any stage of ology (DSM) presented by Christel et al. development are summarised in Figure 20.

266 European Space Agency, 2017c:4 268 Kuznetsova, 2017 267 European Space Agency, 2017c:4 269 Christel et al., 2017:2

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Human Centred Design

• Creation of cross-disci- Visualisation Design plinary teams • Stakeholder workshop • Design brief Evaluation • Service design work- • User requirements workshop shop • Data design and implemen- • Qualitative user evalua- tation tion • Reflection

Communication

• Applying multiple communication channels: ambient and interactive installations, media coverage, presentation to relevant conferences

Precondition Core Analysis Problem characterisation with Visualisation design and evalu- User engagement human-centred design ation

Figure 20: Author adaptation of the Design Study Methodology (DSM) (source: Christel et al., 2017).

* Note that feedback loops are permitted at ground). On the other hand, under a more any stage of this process – furthering flexibility commercially based model, a private entity to achieve increased clarity of objectives and would directly purchase access to a service effectiveness of results considering new ad- from a service provider. In both cases, the vancements or inputs through e.g. user en- monetary requirements for operations are gagement. met, even though with differences in the mechanisms for funding and data policy. A model for commercial service provision re- 4.2.2 Identifying Customers quires two primary conditions. First, that there Moving on from the user community towards is an established model of SWE system devel- the financial aspects of market development, opment that provides sufficient data for ser- as reflected in the ESA SSA Customer Require- vices to be produced – the current trend being ment Document (CRD)270, current efforts in that public entities take this role (e.g. NOAA, demand analysis have focused purely on user ESA). Second, there has to be a market willing identification and their requirements, however to pay for services – although public sector en- there is a lack of clarity as to who the customer tities can still act as customer in this scenario. a service will be, i.e. the entity procuring the Crucially under this model, the service pro- SWE services. This outlines another gap to be vider is a commercial entity, with cash-flow addressed in SWE service provisions, the so- going up the value chain from a paying cus- lution of which is heavily dependent on the tomer (public or private) – commercial actors model of funding that is applied; i.e. services will be incentivised to not make data publicly provided on a public or a private basis. available and to charge for access (Nightingale et al., 2016). From an operational point of view, the question of demand, or the market, is essentially a Whether or not a public model for providing question of who pays for a service in order to services is used depends on several issues that ensure cash flow up the value-chain and ulti- need to be answered. First, is the question of mately its sustainability – in turn highlighting to what extent SWE services are deemed as a the public or private provision model of a ser- public good in order for public funding to sus- vice. The customer of a service might very well tain them? Second, is there a presence of a be a different entity to the end user of the ser- market that is willing, or is even able, to pay vice. This is most proinently the case in a pub- for service access? Third, do private service lic model for service provision; for example, operators exist, with sufficient in-house exper- the paying customer of a tailored service prod- tise, to provide services in place of public fund- uct could be a public funding programme or a ing and entities? Importantly under a public public body, such as a National Meteorological model, the service provider is a public entity, Office, while the end-user of this service could generally having an open data policy, free at be an operator (public or private) of a critical the point of use for the end user.271 infrastructure (be it in space or on the

270 European Space Agency, 2011 271 Nightingale et al., 2016

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A clear case in point is the U.S. SWE service funded by governments for protection of setting, where there already exist both public their critical national infrastructure (function under an open/free data policy for • The availability of reliable free services on users, with some restrictions on military pro- the Internet (e.g. NOAA SWPC) visions) and private service operators (working on a subscription basis) – highlighting that • The still limited understanding of cus- both public and private frameworks for a tomer impact value-chain can co-exist, with public entities generally holding a non-competitive role if a • The lack of clear customer economic ben- commercial actor is sustainable in its provision efit related to SWE service provision, par- (Lautenbacher, 2014:3-4). Additionally, it is ticularly with respect to centennial risks still the case in the U.S. that public organisa- (benefits are perceived as too intangible tions maintain the role of developers, provid- or too distant in time) ing the data and products necessary for pri- • The lack of recent events creating signifi- vate SWE services to function. cant impacts.272 On the other hand, in the European context, In light of these factors, at the current state of the level of commercial uptake in the provision development of SWE services within the Euro- of SWE service is still very low. While ESA in pean context, it is reasonable to suggest that, its SWE policy has adopted a non-compete for the foreseeable future, SWE service provi- clause (NCC) with available commercial solu- sion will – and should – be conducted primarily tions, at this stage in the development of Eu- under a public procurement model. It is also ropean-based SWE services it remains unclear reasonable to assume that, as the SWE service whether it is possible to monetise such ser- status further develops, the emergence of vices from a commercial perspective. This is commercial services will also develop increas- because, in general for all sectors, the devel- ing traction, in a similar fashion to what hap- opment of a commercial market for SWE ser- pened in the field of meteorology. While this vices is going to be considerably hampered by may be a long-term scenario, to support the a number of factors. The most important in- progressive uptake of commercial solutions clude: and emergence of a customer base it will be • The still low accuracy of nowcast and fore- necessary to tackle the issues identified above casts through a set of enabling actions, an overview of which is provided in Box 7. • The understanding of SWE services as public goods with subsequent provision

Box 7: Enabling the Uptake of Commercial Market Solutions The further development of the SWE market dimension in Europe will require: • Tackling technological issues highlighted in Section 6.2.1 to increase the accuracy and reliability of forecasts • Raising awareness of SWE impacts and associated costs through more accurate socio-economic impact assessments that inter alia identify hidden infrastructure vulnerabilities and interdependencies and address cascading effects and multiple stakeholders • Continuing raising sectorial awareness of how SWE services might be beneficial to users through a reinforced dialogue with all stakeholders (authorities, operators, and also the public • Increased research and understanding of SWE impacts for individual sectors • Further collaboration with users/potential customers to identify specified requirements and service improvements, while educating them on the inherent limits of the services (so as to avoid them requesting e.g. a solar flare prediction with 99% confidence few days before the event) • Seeking cooperation with industry for developing ad-hoc services tailored to specific domains (or even specific users) providing more value-adding information as compared to those already provided by government and openly accessible on the internet • Identifying sectors (e.g. oil drilling, polar shipping; unmanned transport) and typologies of services where users may be incentivised to procure tailored services on a commercial basis because of clear economic benefits. In this respect it can be highlighted that businesses may be willing to invest in services assuring their business continuity, but only with respect to risks that may occur on a shorter timescale (i.e. some years) and have limited impact. Conversely, benefits may be perceived as too distant or too intangible and burdensome to

272 PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2016

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set up a market for large-scale, centennial SWE risks, which clearly calls for a sustained public investment. • Identifying suitable commercial provision schemes in commercially viable sectors (e.g. fees levied on passengers’ tickets as in the case of the ICAO aviation services, or a fee charged on energy operators and then cascaded onto the end-user energy bill)

tion on “The Agency and the Operational Sys- tems”, (the text of which is provided in Annex 4.3 Defining an Ap- A.8 ESA and Operational Services), ESA may carry out operational activities, but only in the propriate Organi- fields where organised users do not exist, or if requested by users to do so. This provision sational Setting was mainly intended to avoid the situation where there is no operator for the systems it develops. Moreover, such involvement was in- Since the inception of the broader European tended to be temporary before a transfer of SSA programme, there has been a clear un- responsibility to external organisations. As for derstanding that that the most challenging is- the source of funding for operational activities, sue will be associated with the overall govern- this was meant to be different for R&D and op- ance scheme.273 Indeed, while the steps to ad- erational activities, as clearly highlighted by dress the technological and market gaps are in Article V.2. principle clear and detailed, many questions and known unknowns still hover above the In short, “ESA’s mandate does not prevent it broader institutional and financial framework from becoming involved in operational activi- to support decision-making across the multiple ties but its involvement in operational activi- stakeholders, the rules for decision-making, ties has been foreseen as temporary until an- and the mechanisms, to ensure conformance other organisation can take over the responsi- to the data policy rules and procedures. bility for the operational systems”.274 As seen in Chapter 3, the current European ar- Consistently, already in the SSA programme chitecture for SWE services is primarily cen- proposal of 2008, the ESA Council stressed tred on the individual activities led by most Eu- that “while ESA can be responsible for the de- ropean countries and those of ESA. The velopment and validation of the European SSA Agency has done much to further develop and system, its exploitation is expected to be as- federate these capabilities, and its SWE Ser- signed to a separate operational entity, which vice Network is now well positioned to become will operate it in line with the agreed govern- the foundation of an operational European ance, data policy and data security principles. SWE infrastructure. However, it has been Thus, once pre-operational qualification is questioned whether ESA, as a research and achieved, the SSA system will be handed over development agency, can be the body respon- to this operations entity”.275 sible for the provision of operational services or should it, to the contrary, spin them out into At the same time it was proposed that ESA an operational body (as it has done in building would remain responsible for the future evolu- other operational systems such as, for in- tion of the SSA system through the adoption stance, launchers, and meteorological satellite of a modular approach “for carrying out such systems). system evolutions, qualifying them and then handing them over to the operations entity. Indeed, the question of ESA’s role in opera- These evolutions could include new instru- tional programmes has been broadly debated ments, enhancements of the ground and since the early 1970s, when questions about space infrastructure, new data products and its possible role in the operations of the first services, as well as adaptation of the system meteorological satellites emerged. According to new technologies”.276 This approach is rep- to the ESA Convention and the 1977 Resolu- resented in Figure 21.

273 European Space Agency, 2008 275 European Space Agency, 2008:11 274 Mathieu, 2009 276 European Space Agency, 2008:12

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Feedback loop: integration of the new capabilities into the operational system

Development: ESA Operations: ?

Operational experience, gap analysis and formulation of new requirements

Figure 21: Feedback Mechanism for Operational Services (source: Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, 2008)

The organisation to which ESA would transfer However, as of mid-2018, no final decision had the responsibility for SWE services and other been reached and there is still a debate on SSA-related operations was discussed in the whether the responsibility for operational ser- broader SSA governance study entrusted in vices should eventually be transferred to an- 2008 by ESA to major European think thanks, other body, as well as whether the provision consultancies, and law firms.277 These first of such services should be detached from studies “have provided the necessary refer- other SSA services (see Box 8). ence work for the selection of models to be confronted with in the space and non-space domains”.278

Box 8: Rethinking Relations Among the SSA Components? SWE research and services have been generally regarded as one of the contributing elements to the provision of the broader SSA services. In reality, however, there may be at least two sets of incentives to differentiate SWE services (and other space environment monitoring services such as NEOs) from SST services.

For one thing, as emerges from the assessment of SWE demand (see Annex A.3), the provision of SWE services encompasses a plethora of domains, some of which are not directly intended to support safe space operations (e.g. services to power grids operators, aviation, etc.). In this sense, SSA can be considered just one of the domains where SWE services can be provided. As SWE services gradually move from research to operations, they acquire a more autonomous dimension from SST-related activities. Therefore, the integration of the various SSA elements, although un- derstandable and operationally useful from the perspective space-related users’ (e.g. spacecraft operators, launch service providers), may not be the best way forward for the provision of SWE service to “terrestrial users”.

In addition to the specialisation of SWE service-delivery in a variety of domains, another driver to differentiate between SST services and space environment monitoring services is that these two categories of services show clear differences in both governance and data policy. The former presents the most challenging political, security and liability-related issues, implying the identification of a number of specific issues to be addressed as a pre-requisite to any intra-European or international cooperation. By contrast, the second category of services may be considered more easily manageable due to the relatively low security and liability-related constraints. In this latter case, the demanding constraints applied to the first category of services may not apply and less con- straining management and practical organisations can be found to better optimise SWE services’ delivery also in terms of timeframe. It is in fact clear that keeping SST and SWE frameworks under the same roof may possibly slow down the objective of delivering operational SWE services as quickly as possible.

Overall, whereas these two considerations may call for rethinking the place of SWE services within the broader SSA programme, the rationales of, and incentives for, keeping an integrated approach

277 See for instance Fondation pour la Recherche Straté- 278 del Monte, 2009 gique, 2008

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to services delivery in the field of SSA cannot be neglected, particularly as concerns the establishment of a common and comprehensive European framework for space safety and security. In light of these considerations, at this stage a viable pathway would be to envisage different services components with different governance structure within one overarching programme, as in the case of the Space Programme proposal of the EU. In any case, the eventual selection of a specific architecture over another will ultimately depend on the underlying objectives European stakeholders (i.e. Member States) will decide to pursue.

In addition, irrespective of who the operator should it be managed within the same op- will be, there are other key issues that will erational body? (See Box-4) then need to be addressed from an organisa- • How can treated data be acquired, tional point of view. More specifically, there treated, disseminated, and under which will be a necessity to: conditions? • Guarantee the availability of the data and • How will the continuity of data be en- services delivered through an appropriate sured? data policy tailored to address the requirements of the different stakeholders • Where will the funding come from and who will ultimately pay for the services? • Guarantee continuity of such data and services particularly through international Depending on how SWE services are conceived cooperation (SWE services as private vs. public and SWE services as national vs. international), four • Guarantee the sustainability of the ser- broad scenarios for providing SWE services vices by ensuring sustainable funding and can be identified at European level. The sce- allocation from users and ensuring pro- narios are as follows: grammatic overview • Self-provision by commercial entities (Ap- In this respect, different governance solutions, proach A) with different cascading implications for ensuring data/service availability, continuity, and • Services provision by a public government sustainability, are discussed in the next sec- agency at national or regional level (Ap- tion. proach B) • Services provision by one or more public 4.3.1 Scenarios for Operational entities at European level (Approach C) SWE Services • Service provision through an international framework such as UNOOSA, or a dedi- When considering possible scenarios for the cated international organisation (e.g. operationalisation of SWE services while tak- ICAO) (Approach D) ing into account the features identified above, Each scenario presents different approaches to the most pressing questions that European service management. Importantly, the four stakeholders will need to address include: approaches here presented are not mutually • Who will be in charge of system operation, exclusive. In fact, they are, and will continue maintenance and updates? to, develop simultaneously and even recipro- cally. For example, the uptake of operational • Who will control the performance of the services at European level will not prevent or overall system (both technically and fi- void service provision at national level; MSs nancially) and be responsible for a system will be keen to continue capitalising on their error? past investment to deliver services at national • Should an existing entity be picked or a level to protect critical infrastructure and de- new one created? vise crisis management plans, for both operators and civil society. Beyond this, the solidi- • Should the operator be public (civilian), fying roles of national/regional public entities military or commercial? regarding SWE service provision can provide a • Should SWE services be treated as an in- good basis, equipped with tools and expertise, tergovernmental or supra-national func- for a complementary and collaborative relation? tionship with international frameworks, as is the case of ICAO aviation services. At the • Should the management of operational same time, commercial entities may still able SWE services be detached from other SSA to act in their own interest in terms of service components (i.e. SST and NEOs) or provision to ensure business continuity with

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respect to risks that may occur on a timescale From this standpoint, identification and devel- of some years and have limited impact. opment of a dedicated governance scheme for service delivery in Europe (Approach C) re- However, what remains to be further dis- main subject to different options (see Figure cussed and assessed is precisely what archi- 22). tecture will take place at pan-European level.

A. Commercial Solutions

B. Provision by National C.1 ESA Entity Approaches to SWE services C. Provision by European C.2 EUMETSAT Entity

D. Provision by C.3 MS Consortia under International EU Organisation

Figure 22: Approaches to Operational SWE Services

More specifically, under the present circum- and is identifying modalities to provide them stances, three major institutional solutions with the technical and institutional assistance come to the fore to act as the linchpin of an they may need to take over the management operational SWE system in Europe: of these services and to organize their exploitation. • ESA As stressed above, however, ESA’s mandate • EUMETSAT does not prevent it from becoming involved in • the EU operational activities, particularly if organised users, i.e. an operator, do not exist and if re- It is essential to highlight that selecting one of quested to do so by member states. While the three configurations will neither automati- such involvement may be considered as tem- cally preclude complementary roles for the porary before a transfer of responsibility to an other two stakeholders, nor the potential in- external organisation, it is also possible that it volvement of member states, the private sec- could become permanent. tor as well as international partners. Rather, such selection would only imply that that the The main justification for enacting this route is provision of operational SWE services would the need to avoid a situation in which there is be centred on the framework of one of these no operator for the SWE systems/services de- three pan-European institutions. veloped by ESA. Thus, under this option, the Agency would act as the linchpin of the SWE Scenario 1: SWE services provided service governance framework by: • Owning, managing and operating the through the ESA SWE network space-based infrastructure, while coordi- A first option for the delivery of operational nating the operations of the ground-based services would entail an expansion of ESA’s infrastructure owned by national member current role in the development of pre-opera- states; tional services into the delivery of fully opera- • Providing data or data services in an optional services. erational manner to end users (either di- The Agency has already been entrusted with rectly through its SWE Service Portal or full responsibility for the design, development via a service provider) and exploitation of pre-operational SWE ser- • Maintaining a programmatic overview of vices, as the development of prototypes has the development of new systems and their been deemed to be the best way of advancing integration through relations with its the associated technology and facilitating the stakeholders (e.g. industry and member transition to the operational phase. ESA is ex- states), and ercising this responsibility in consultation with potential users (mostly national SWE entities)

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• Ensuring the availability, continuity and Meteorological Offices) would act as the pro- sustainability of such services viders and take the role of exclusive licencing agents for ESA’s products to end users within In terms of service availability, ESA would be their corresponding national regions. The nec- responsible for the implementation of suitable essary partnership between ESAs’ Space data policies and distribution schemes that in- Weather Coordination Centre (SWCC) as the clude the definition of: categories of users and operator and MSs as service providers can be usage; data distribution methods; ownership formalised by their national entities having a and IPRs; and possible fees attributed to cat- role in the management of ESA, for instance egories of users/usage. At this stage, prefer- by continuing to have representation in the ence is given to the adoption of an open data ESCs and SWCC. In this way, the operator and policy, where security and business confiden- service provider each have a real capability to tiality is, however, also ensured (e.g. space- shape and effectively meet user demand. The craft specifications). This is possible because more intertwined the partners, the more sus- an open access model for data usage, com- tainable is the value chain and therefore the bined with low – or zero – costs, is deemed to service. hold the potential to drive the development of SWE services, particularly considering that commercial SWE markets are still fragmented. Scenario 2: Services Provided Still, variations in access and pricing policies may be considered on the basis of the type of through EUMETSAT service provided, i.e. raw data or processed & A second option for managing operational SWE tailored products. services would entail transferring the manage- In terms of services continuity, ESA has al- ment of operational SWE services to ready established bilateral ad hoc agreements EUMETSAT. As in the case of ESA, a scenario for exchange of services and is in an optimal in which EUMETSAT takes the role of operator position to establish agreements with other is an intergovernmental, institutional-ori- SWE data/service providers, including ented, and member states-driven model for NASA/NOAA, to secure the continuity of supply SWE service governance. of space delivered data and services, and to The Darmstadt-based organisation has al- avoid or negate system failure. ready voiced its interest in having a stronger In order to ensure a sustainable service down- and more defined role in the management of stream to users, under this option ESA would operational SWE activities and, thanks to its be directly in charge not only of fulfilling all long and relevant experience in cost-effec- technical, operational and organisational re- tively turning what is essentially the output of quirements, but also of receiving sustainable scientific research into operational services funding for the operational service it delivers. that are tailored to wide user communities, the This was, and remains, a key issue in the in- rationale for EUMETSAT’s involvement in the volvement of ESA in operational activities, as delivery of SWE services are in principle clear. the source of funding for such activities needs Indeed, the current model for meteorology to be different from R&D activities. Indeed, and climate services that EUMETSAT embodies while funding can be sourced either publicly or is an attractive model for future SWE service privately and ensured by a cash flow from us- operation because a number of parallels can ers to operators (usually via providers) across be drawn regarding the types of activities to the service value chain, as clearly highlighted be conducted, the organisational structure, by Article V.2. of ESA Convention (see Annex. and the data policy. In addition, it should be A.6), this funding must be allocated through noted that the EUMETSAT model developed an operational budget and not a research from an ESA experimental satellite pro- budget. From a monetary perspective, the gramme as an ad hoc operational organisation other condition that must be fulfilled is that: – with this approach proving its “validity over “Member States that have contributed to the the years, to the satisfaction of its member 279 development of a space programme [are] to states”. Importantly, unlike ESA’s ESCs be equitably associated with the follow-up op- (which are organised according to the scien- erational activities resulting from the pro- tific domain) EUMETSAT’s Satellite Application gramme in question, taking due account of Facilities (SAFs) are tailored to individual do- any commercial constraints.” mains and provide “users with operational data and software products, each one for a Therefore, under this option, it is more likely dedicated user community and application that member states (through their national agencies or designated entities – e.g. infrastructure protection authorities or National

279 Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, 2008:13

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area”.280 Additionally, the SAF model is fully provide services on an independent level, with rationalised and well-integrated with the user potential support from EUMETSAT in doing so. communities, as SAFs are situated within the With regards to access, distribution, and IPR, National Meteorological Services (NMS), its as a meteorological system operator member states, or other user-linked bodies281. EUMETSAT would act as an appointed entity by Interestingly, a scenario in which EUMETSAT ESA and its member states to set data and takes responsibility for SWE service provision product prices, whilst NMOs would take the finds an important parallel in the experience of role of exclusive licencing agents for the U.S., which today has a complete space EUMETSAT’s data within their corresponding weather monitoring and data service system national regions operated by NOAA/SWPC in collaboration with While NMOs would be additionally responsible NASA and USAF. Through NOAA/SPPC, many for marketing and commercial data distribu- of the space weather data products and ser- tion, it is foreseeable that, as in the case of vices are made available without any re- meteorological and climate services, this dis- striction to a wide variety of users. Also, pro- tribution would function under an open data tocols and procedures for international space policy – the reason for which is that in this weather data exchange and service coordina- context the data products and services would tion are established and implemented through be conceived as public goods, and ultimately NOAA’s cooperation with ISES. be provided primarily for the benefit of Reflecting this line of development in the case EUMETSAT’S member states as well as wider of EUMETSAT meteorological activities, in users. This model depends on EUMETSAT’s terms of the organisation of the service value member states expressing their desire for chain, ESA would retain the role of the system EUMETSAT to take an operational role in SWE developer, while EUMETSAT would act as the services, since EUMETSAT requires the man- mediating operator, passing on its data prod- date of its members and the certainty of an ucts to its member states largely through Na- operational budget that would follow. tional Meteorological Offices (NMOs) – or, al- In obtaining sustainable funding for operations ternatively, national civil protection authorities and development of new systems, EUMETSAT – who would in turn provide services to the could receive contributions based on the GDP end-users. End users would mainly be govern- of its member states, as in the case of mete- mental entities in charge of national infra- orological services. Furthermore, EUMETSAT structure protection but also commercial com- would be awarded funding by national mete- panies such as commercial spacecraft opera- orological offices as service providers, addi- tors, airlines, etc. tionally reinvesting any revenue made back in- It is important to note that in the delivery of tro infrastructure development. SWE services, EUMETSAT would not act as the EUMETSAT would own, manage and operate service provider, but as the system operator. its own satellites. However, while EUMETSAT Equally important, and in a similar fashion to would conduct operations, its satellites would EUMETSAT’s involvement with the operation of be procured by ESA. In this regard, there Copernicus, EUMETSAT would have responsi- should be an agreement between ESA as the bility for the operation of the space segment development agency and EUMETSAT as the only. Hence, the designation of a separate op- operator for the development of novel satellite erator for the ground segment would be nec- generations. essary. Overall, it is clear that if EUMETSAT were to In terms of relations between operators, pro- take on the role as the operator for SWE ser- viders and users, EUMETSAT would include vices, it would need a clear mandate and re- representation of NMOs within its bodies, as in sultant financial capabilities from its member the case of meteorological services. The NMOs states. To reach this stage, the dialogue in the as service providers would subsequently be European setting for SWE services needs to able to input EUMETSAT’s decision processes, meet a critical mass in terms of convergence whilst also acting as a bridge between the op- and consolidation across the board for stake- erator and end-user. holders relevant to SWE services. This would From this operational role, EUMETSAT would primarily entail further platforms for discus- be responsible for the dissemination of the re- sion on not just the maturity of the scientific sultant data products to national meteorologi- and technical aspects of SWE services, but cal or civil authorities who would refine and crucially the organisational elements – namely

280 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteoro- 281 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteoro- logical Satellites, 2018c logical Satellites, 2018c

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the designation of operators and service pro- and the delivery of operational and user- viders, the allocation of an operational budget, driven SWE services. and the development of the user community. The rationale for this is the recognition that “all Another critical aspect in the adoption of this EU assets constituting the basis for EU space option is that, notwithstanding the progressive actions can be potentially impacted by space expansion of EUMETSAT activities as provider weather and therefore the development of a of SWE-related data through the SWE instru- framework for space weather is necessary to ments hosted on its satellites, the overall level protect them and ensure efficient and reliable of expertise remains minimal, with only a few services provided by other space activities”.283 in-house experts working on SWE matters. While SWE services are being developed and Therefore, adoption of this option would also coordinated by ESA and some member states, entail a rather long timeframe for full opera- these are mostly focused on science and still tionalisation. need to be tailored to meet operational users needs. In other words, the EU recognises that On a more positive side, it must be noted that the value stemming from its intervention EUMETSAT is in a good position for interna- would be higher than the value that would tional cooperation on SWE matters, with solid have otherwise been created by ESA or mem- links with international organisations such as ber states alone. Accordingly, the EU has pro- WMO, CGMS and agencies like NOAA through posed supporting the continuous provision of years of cooperation in the fields of meteorol- operational space weather services by building ogy and climate. These international organisa- on, and in complementarity to, ESA and nations are already interested and partaking in tional activities. SWE activities, in some instances with far more maturity and progression towards full With a nod to Article 59 of the June 2018 EU operation of SWE services. As such, Space programme proposal, the European EUMETSAT’s pre-existing relationship with Commission would be primarily in charge of such entities would prove invaluable to the de- the procurement of operational SWE services velopment of SWE services in the European to be delivered to the SWE users, according to context. One major factor would be ensuring identified user needs and relative technical re- the continuity and availability of data through quirements. mutual collaboration, sharing of data, and More specifically, building on the assessment safeguarding satellite SWE observation capa- and identification of the needs of users in pre- bilities should one’s partner’s satellites be de- selected sectors284 (the number of services fective or out of action (as seen with mutual and sectors can always be extended by means support between NOAA and EUMETSAT in me- of implementing acts according to future teorology or in the case of GEOS and needs of users, new technological capabilities, METEOSAT support between NOAA and and future risk assessments) SWE services ESA/EUTMETSAT during system failure would be procured through calls for tenders events). open to a set of SWE consortia. Scenario 3: Providing/Procuring While further specifics of this modus operandi are not detailed in the proposal – the text of Operational Services Under the which may also likely change following the Council and Parliament amendments - some EU assumptions on the possible implementation A third option for the operationalisation of of this scenario can be advanced. pan-European SWE services is to organise the For one thing, it is not precluded that the work provision of operational SWE service under the of these SWE consortia could be organised umbrella of the European Commission. around specific user domains (e.g. spacecraft, In the Proposal for the space programme of aviation, GNSS systems, electric power grids the European Union282 released in June 2018 and communications, etc.) rather than scien- and currently in co-decision by EU legislative tific domains (solar weather, ionospheric authorities, the European Commission already weather, heliospheric weather, etc.). This expressed its resolve to cover the space would enable service provision to be more user weather element within the Situational Space driven and rationalised according to user Awareness component of its space programme needs. It is also possible that a specific stake- with the aim of assessing and identifying SWE holder (e.g. a national research institute or an user needs, raising awareness of SWE risks industry) may participate in multiple consortia, provided that its technical expertise and

282 European Commission, 2018 284 Article 59 identifies the following sectors: spacecraft, 283 European Commission, 2018 aviation, GNSSs, electric power grids and communications.

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capabilities are relevant to the SWE service tackle the inevitable issues related to the own- domain in question. ership of data and the IPRs (because these data would remain national property, meaning Overall, within this framework, the members that the decision to share them, and to what of the consortia would have to make use of the extent, is still up to states). necessary technical expertise and capabilities to ensure operational SWE services delivery. In terms of service continuity, the European More specifically, they would be directly re- Commission’s proposal for an EU Space pro- sponsible for managing and operating their gramme has already highlighted the im- ground- and space-based systems and for pro- portance of cooperation with international cessing the data, as well as for providing the partners, in particular the U.S., international necessary interfaces to centralise, store and organisations, and other third parties to in- make available SWE services to different types crease preparedness for the effects of extreme of users and ensuring the implementation of space weather events. Through the EEAS, the the data policy. Union has in addition expressed its support for the creation of an International System for Op- The role of the Commission would be to define erational Space Weather Service and a Coor- the general guidelines for the governance of dination Committee within the UN to ensure the SWE service framework, to coordinate the the sharing of SWE data (and therefore conti- work of the consortia, and to ensure the fund- nuity and quality of different SWE services) at ing for their activities. In line with Article 30.3 international level.286 of the Proposal,285 the Commission may entrust these and other tasks related to user up- As for the sustainability of the service, a key takes of SWE services to the EU Agency for the issue for the eventual implementation of this Space Programme (the current GSA), alt- option would be the source and extent of fund- hough it is once again worth remembering that ing. In fact, the level of funding envisaged by final version of the Regulation may differ from the regulation to support SSA-related activi- the Commission's proposal due to the Council ties is arguably modest, especially considering and parliament amendments. Supposedly, the that this budget would have to be split with envisioned Agency would also be responsible GOVSATCOM and other SSA elements (SST for: and NEO). The EC has already acknowledged this issue and, accordingly, has called for pri- • Assuring, in cooperation with the SWE oritisation of the sectors to which the opera- consortia, the availability and continuity tional SWE services are to be provided taking of the SWE services through an appropri- into account the user needs, risks and techno- ate data policy, distribution scheme, and logical readiness. In the long term, the needs international cooperative frameworks of other sectors may be addressed. Whereas • Assuring the sustainability of the deliv- this incremental approach may entail an un- ered services by: clear implementation timeframe for the full delivery of SWE operational services, it is also o supporting, promoting and encourag- likely that it will also enable the emergence of ing the use of the services across user a self-sufficient and sustainable provision communities; scheme, whereby in the future the consortia o gathering feedback to ensure the re- would obtain funding from service users quired alignment of services with user through the operators, along the lines of what expectations; will be tested by the PECAUS consortium for the aviation sector. o ensuring a programmatic overview and providing direct reporting on the performance of the SWE services. 4.3.2 Scenarios Assessment In order to guarantee the availability of the Each of the above-discussed scenarios has services, the national entities participating in very particular characteristics that carry differ- the consortia would have to conclude imple- ent advantages but also raise possible draw- menting arrangements with the Agency to backs, as briefly outlined in Table 16.

Pros Cons Scenario 1 • Demonstrated expertise in SWE • Outside ESA’s traditional mandate (ESA) • Source of funding unclear

285 The Commission may entrust other tasks to the other activities related to user uptakes with regard to the Agency, including undertaking communication, promotion, Programme's components other than Galileo and EGNOS and marketing of data and information activities, as well as 286 EU Delegation, 2018

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• Quicker timeframe for implemen- • Bias towards space operations-re- tation lated services • Strong relations with SWE agen- • Bias towards space-based capabili- cies worldwide ties • Long experience in managing op- • Minimal expertise in SWE erational activities • SWE detached from other SSA com- • Suitable infrastructure for man- ponents Scenario 2 aging operational systems • SWE space segment operations de- (EUMETSAT) • Connection to the WMO tached ground segment • Strong relations with SWE agen- • Longer timeframe for implementa- cies worldwide tion • Political backing in the delivery of • Relatively recent involvement in operational services SWE activities Scenario 3 • SWE embedded in a broader • Unclear implementation timeframe (EU) framework for space safety • Still modest funding for implementa- • Involvement of private sector in tion service delivery

Table 16: SWE Services Scenario Assessment

Clearly, selecting one scenario over another Thus far, however, this recognition has not will eventually come down to the relative been equally shared among all European coun- weight European stakeholders (most crucially, tries and across all the different sectors poten- EU and ESA’s member states) attribute to the tially impacted by SWE. As also assessed by a different pros and cons vis-à-vis the political, study led by the JRC, awareness proves higher financial and operational aspects of each sce- among sectors such as power grid operators nario. In this sense, this report does not aspire and aviation, and, geographically, in countries to provide a conclusive answer regarding the located in northern and central Europe (Fin- best way forward, as any specific selection can land, Hungary, Netherlands, Sweden, UK and only play out in the actual political decision- Norway), which have formally recognised the making process. threat of extreme SWE by including it in their national strategic risk assessments. Irrespective of the possible enactment of one of the above-identified scenarios, what is, However, as also highlighted by Mann et al however, important to highlight is the need for (2018), “[I]n the 21st century, the infrastruc- public/private end-users of SWE services as ture and economies of the world’s nation well as national and European decision-mak- states are increasingly and intimately con- ers to clearly recognise the stakes. nected, both regionally and globally. There- fore, even countries with a perceived low domestic space weather risk will benefit from a coordinated approach to mitigating space 4.4 The Bottom Line: weather impacts.287 In order to achieve greater recognition that Enhancing Aware- SWE can affect multiple infrastructures and overwhelm a single’s nation response capac- ness and Prepared- ity, a pan-European vulnerability assessment of the interdependencies between critical in- ness frastructures should be performed. Arguably, this would greatly help not only to identify crit- icalities and potential transboundary effects in As highlighted in Chapter 2, there are strate- case of SWE events, but also to raise greater gic, economic, societal and environmental awareness of the stakes associated with SWE stakes associated with SWE service delivery. service delivery. Eventually, the adoption of a Recognising such stakes is an important, not comprehensive European policy statement in to say the most important, prerequisite to en- the domain of SWE seems a necessary step to suring the required political support to address ensuring a higher alignment among European the above-identified technical, market and or- stakeholders. ganisational gaps, and eventually make the provision of operational services possible. Of course, the delivery of SWE services will not per se be sufficient to mitigate against their

287 Mann et al., 2018

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effects or to derive socio-economic benefits. In progressively becoming the EC’s hub for re- fact, once SWE warnings or alerts are issued, sponse to different types of crises) could offer it will also be essential to know what to do. a relevant framework in this respect. Once Hence, “a set of best practices, operating pro- again, for this development to become feasi- cedures, and actions have to be identified by ble, political support from member states will first assessing what risks and socio-economic need to be ensured – possibly through the In- impacts are present in each member state or tegrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR) ar- region and then to recognize the correct and rangements291 – due to the national sensitivi- appropriate measures to be taken in order to ties involved in critical infrastructure protec- mitigate the potential consequences.”288 tion. In the United States, the Obama administration “…. issued a National Space Weather Strategy that defines high-level strategic goals and actions for increasing preparedness lev- 4.5 Elements for a els”. Vice-versa, in the European context, there is much uncertainty in matters related to European Roadmap SWE risk management. While there are protocols and preparedness plans at national level Over the next few years, the currently ongoing (which are also mostly based on single infra- European efforts towards the delivery of oper- structure disruptions), such documents are ational services will face multiple commit- missing at the pan-European level. More ments on multiple fronts. More specifically: broadly, to date there has been no European On the technical front there will be a need to: decision-making capability that could quickly respond to a SWE-caused disruption of critical • Secure access to SWE data through the infrastructures. Therefore, as also recom- development /deployment of European mended by the JRC:289 SWE missions and ad hoc agreements with international SWE service providers • Protocols should be developed that define responsibilities and ensure good coordina- • Improve physic-based model and compu- tion between the stakeholders before, tational tools that will enable to move during and after an extreme event. This from the current observation/post-pro- includes communication of the risks and cessing capacity context into a predictive potential impacts to the public. one • Emergency plans for extreme space • Add and validate key products and ser- weather should consider the full range of vices through coordination among differ- critical infrastructures possibly affected. ent service providers well as through a Once drawn up, these plans need to be process where SWE products and services tested. are tested with real users in the loop. • The opportunity for organising a joint On the market front, there will be a need to: space-weather exercise at EU level should be explored to test existing response ca- • Fortify interaction engagement with the pabilities and identify critical gaps…. This end user communities, continuing to col- or other space-weather exercises could be lect user feedback to feed into the SWE organised as a multi-national exercise un- roadmaps der the Union Civil Protection Mechanism. • Perform more accurate assessments of in- Ultimately, the existing European structures frastructure vulnerabilities and interde- and mechanisms dealing with prevention, pre- pendencies that address cascading effects paredness and response to possible haz- and multiple stakeholders with a view to ards/disasters could cover SWE events to fa- prepare strategic plans cilitate pan-European preparedness planning • Progressively tailor services to the needs 290 and coordination in case of a SWE event. of specific user/customers (e.g. alerts not The European Response Coordination Centre merely providing information on a SWE (a 24/7 emergency operation centre that is

288 Mann et al., 2018 - Such studies need to recognize that 290 Ibid. geographic differences influence the severity of space 291 The Integrated Political Crisis Response (IPCR) ar- weather effects on vulnerable infrastructure and technol- rangements, sanctioned in June 2013 by the Council of the ogy systems. The COPUOS-approved space weather-re- European Union, aim to “provide a flexible crisis mecha- lated guidelines for LTS already include some additional nism for supporting the presidency of the Council of the elements relating to protection strategies. Their future im- European Union in dealing with major natural or man- plementation in member states would advance global made cross-sectorial disasters, as well as acts of terror- space weather resiliency. ism”. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/me- 289 Krausmann et al., 2016 dia/29699/web_ipcr.pdf

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event but how the event will affect, e.g. this may well prove a crucial development to- spacecraft operations) ward the delivery of operational services, it remains unclear whether the currently foreseen • Take steps to support the uptake of pri- funding will be sufficient to reach the level of vate actors in the delivery of commercial resources required to establish an operational SWE services by mapping the potential system for SWE service delivery, and whether customer base and European private ca- a dedicated budget line (other than Horizon pability and evaluating emerging business Europe), will thus be essential to reach the opportunities and challenges level of resources necessary to provide • Identify the demand for new possible SWE them.292 services (e.g. in the field of STM) In parallel to these important schedules at Eu- On the organisational front, there will be a ropean level, a third important element in the need to: consolidation of a roadmap for SWE service delivery will be the future implementation of • Assess different governance solutions for the proposals made in the UNISPACE+50 re- the management of operational services port under Thematic Priority 4 - Framework for with a view to establish possible synergies International Space Weather Services. More with other SSA services specifically, European stakeholders will have • Entrust the identified operator with the re- to decide on the proposed creation of a new sponsibility for the operational system(s) International Coordination Group for Space Weather (ICSW), which would “lead interna- • Define an appropriate data policy and se- tional coordination between member states cure a sustainable funding and allocation and across international stakeholders, monitor scheme progress against implementation of guidelines An important step toward the fulfilment of and best practices, and promote coordinated these objectives will be the 2019 ESA Council global efforts in the space weather ecosystem at Ministerial Level, which will be a key junc- spanning observations, research, modelling, ture point for the development of European and validation, with the goal of improved 293 operational SWE services for two reasons: space weather services”. • On the one hand, the development, de- In the envisaged schedule, an international ployment and operation of ESA space- space weather workshop should be held in the based SWE missions (L1/5 and D3S) will summer of 2019 to define the terms of refer- need to be approved, ence, mandate, and formal structure of such a group. The ICSW will replace the UN COPUOS • On the other, the activities for P4 will need expert group for space weather in 2020 and to be defined, including the extension/re- become functional on approval by the COPUOS inforcement of the SSCC role in interact- STSC and the plenary session in February and ing with users and coordinating the work June 2020, respectively. of the ESCs European support for the proposal may prove Another important step toward the consolida- key to fulfilling the widely acknowledged need tion of a more robust European framework for for further international collaboration to pro- SWE services is the current negotiations for mote the implementation of space weather the next Multiannual Financial Framework guidelines and best practices and minimize du- 2021–2027 of the EU, approval of which will plication of efforts, while filling key measure- entail a number of important developments in ment or other service gaps. this field in terms of new activities, means and ambitions. In fact, if the European Commission’s proposal for the EU Space Programme is agreed and adopted by the European Parliament and the Council, for the first time funding for SWE- related activities will not only be allocated for basic research through the next research and innovation framework programme (FP9 or Horizon Europe) but also for operational service delivery. Equally important, a new organisational setting may be introduced. While all

292 This is especially the case if the foreseen budget of 293 Mann et al. 2018 €0.5 billion will have to be allocated also to the SST and GOVSATCOM initiatives.

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5. Findings and Recommendations

In the general progression towards a service- transition from the pre-operational to the op- oriented European space policy and pro- erational stage; rather, it is first and foremost gramme, an emerging issue-area is SWE ser- associated with the maturity of the constituent vices, here defined as the final output of the elements, namely the data, models and data transformation of space weather data and products underpinning the targeted service. products into practical applications for specific Hence, in the coming years there will be a customers to mitigate the potentially harmful need to address the technological gaps, by fill- impacts of SWE. ing data gaps (especially space-based observations), improving both empirical and phys- Whereas SWE services are already used today ics-based modelling capabilities, and advanc- in a number of countries and within a number ing product maturity and reliability. of sectors (e.g. the commercial airlines, the satellite industry, drilling and surveying operations, power grid operators, users of satellite- Recommendations based navigation systems, etc.), there is a • Funding for development and deploy- general consensus that this demand will ex- ment of the L1/L5 mission and D3S pand further in the future, requiring greater needs to be approved at the next ESA maturity of the services delivered to end us- Ministerial Council in order to ensure a ers. Indeed, as dependency on space- and non-dependent source of SWE data at ground-based technological systems increases European level. along with the sensitivity of our society and • More synergies between the activities of our economy to SWE, the stakes associated ESA in P4 and those of the EU in the up- with the delivery of effective SWE services will coming MFF need to be established for become higher. defining coordinated strategic invest- Such stakes are not only associated with the ments into developing modelling capabil- mitigation of the potentially catastrophic chain ities and forecasting techniques. of impacts generated by rare major SWE • Additional efforts are needed to add and events, but are more broadly connected to a validate key products and pre-opera- series of strategic, commercial, societal and tional services through coordination environmental objectives, including the devel- among different service providers and opment of end-to-end European capabilities, testing with real users in the loop. the advancement of basic and applied research in critical areas, and the overall positive impact on European economy. Whereas the Demand/Market Issues achievements reached by European stake- Other important issues persist in the de- holders in the span of the last decade (2008- mand/market dimensions of SWE services; 2018) are certainly remarkable, there are still more specifically in their source of operational important issues in the delivery of operational funding and identification of customers. Cur- SWE services. rent European efforts in demand analysis have focused purely on user identification and their Scientific and Technological Issues relative requirements. However, there is still a lack of understanding as to who the customer These issues are, firstly, of a scientific and of a service will be, i.e. the entity procuring technological nature. Indeed, when perform- the SWE services. ing a capability assessment by measuring the overall level of service maturity (here defined Within the European context, a number of fac- as the operational implementation of the ser- tors still prevent the emergence of a business vice constituents), it becomes evident that the case for commercial procurement/delivery of major hurdle is not simply associated with the SWE solutions, including: the still low accuracy

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of forecasts, the availability of reliable free charged on energy operators and services by NOAA SWPC, the lack of clear eco- then cascaded onto the end-user en- nomic benefits related to service provision, ergy bill) and the understanding of SWE as public goods, etc. In light of these issues, it is anticipated that, for the foreseeable future, SWE service Organisational Issues provision will be conducted primarily under a public procurement model. However, it is also A third set of outstanding issues in delivery of expected that, as the SWE demand further de- operational SWE services in the European con- velops, businesses may become willing to in- text concerns the definition of an appropriate vest in the procurement/ delivery of services organisational setting. As of 2018, there is still that support their business continuity. This is a lack of pan-European consensus on what in- especially the case for services related to risks stitutional architecture should be entrusted that occur with high frequency and have lim- with the responsibility for the operational ser- ited impact. (e.g. radio black outs stemming vices and the means to coordinate develop- from solar flares). Conversely, benefits may ment efforts along the SWE service value- be perceived as too distant or intangible and chain. burdensome to set up a market for highly dis- From this standpoint, the identification and ruptive but low-frequency SWE risks, such as development of a dedicated governance large geomagnetic storms scheme is subject to different solutions, with different cascading implications for ensuring Recommendations service availability, continuity and financial sustainability. More specifically, under the pre- • Sustained public investment will be sent circumstances, three major institutional needed to ensure operational service solutions come to the fore to act as the linch- provision for the protection of national pin of an operational SWE system in Europe, and European critical infrastructure, es- namely ESA, EUMETSAT and Member States pecially with respect to high-impact, low- Consortia under EU procurement. Each sce- frequency SWE events nario has very particular characteristics that • With respect to risks stemming from low- carry different advantages but also raise pos- impact, high-frequency event, functional sible drawbacks. Therefore, selecting one sce- steps to support the progressive engage- nario over another will eventually come down ment of private actors in service provi- to the relative weight European stakeholders sion and the emergence of a customer (most crucially, EU and ESA’s member states) base for SWE services should be taken. attribute to the political, financial and opera- These steps include: tional pros and cons of each scenario. • Continuing raising sectorial awareness of how SWE services might be beneficial to users through a rein- Recommendations forced dialogue with all stakeholders • The roadmap on the scientific and tech- (authorities, operators, and also the nological dimensions of SWE service de- public) and through more accurate livery needs to be complemented by a socio-economic impact assessments strategic plan to define the roles of the that sensitise operators of space- key players in Europe. While in recent and ground-based infrastructure years several dedicated workshops, • Seeking cooperation with industry for meetings and reports at expert level developing ad-hoc services tailored were held to consult stakeholders on spe- to specific domains (or even specific cific needs on SWE, these were only of a users) providing more value-adding technical nature. Thus, a joint policy information as compared to those al- workshop involving all stakeholders ready provided by government and should be held to tackle outstanding is- openly accessible on the internet sues related to the overall governance of • Identifying sectors (e.g. oil drilling, SWE services (including data policy, pro- polar shipping; unmanned transport) curement, funding schemes). where users may be incentivised to • Since in the Europe there is a multiplicity procure services on a commercial ba- of approaches to SWE, different vulnera- sis because of tangible economic bilities and specific capacities which will benefits. inevitably drive significantly the future of • Identifying suitable commercial pro- the service provision in the European vision schemes in commercially via- context, it will be essential to and capi- ble sectors (e.g. fees levied on pas- talise on these existing capabilities and sengers’ tickets as in the case of the ensure effective coordination among ICAO aviation services, or fees

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them in order to deliver consistent oper- • In light of the envisaged engagement of ational services the EU in the delivery of operational SWE • Consensus among these stakeholders services, there will be important oppor- should be achieved on whether or not to tunities to be leveraged in advancing the integrate SWE as a key component of the specific technical requirements ex- European programme for space safety pressed by the SWE scientific and re- and security as well as an integral con- search community through coherent Eu- stituent of the European public policy ropean diplomatic initiatives (such as the against natural hazards. one led by the EEAS in particular).

International Cooperation European Preparedness Whereas the uptake of European capacities in The eventual delivery of operational SWE ser- SWE service delivery is necessary to better ad- vices will not per se suffice to mitigate against dress the specific vulnerabilities and require- their effects. There is also a need to know what ments of the European context, there is also a to do once forecasts or alerts are provided. In clear understanding that “any European pro- the European context, there is still much un- gress should notably be part of a global effort, certainty in matters related to SWE risk man- very much in the sense of the recent agement. While there are protocols and pre- ILWS/COSPAR Space Weather roadmap, paredness plans at national level (which are, which also has been adopted as the baseline however, mostly based on single infrastruc- for global space weather efforts as pursued ture disruptions), such documents are missing and closely monitored by the UN-COPUOS Ex- at the pan-European level. More broadly, to pert Group on Space Weather”294. date there has been no European decision- making capability that could quickly respond Due to the nature and global impact of SWE to a SWE-caused disruption of critical infra- events, improved coordination in the field of structures. SWE “is especially relevant for filling key measurement gaps, securing the long-term continuity of critical measurements, advancing Recommendations global forecasting and modelling capabilities, identifying potential risks, and developing • In order to enhance European prepared- practices and guidelines to mitigate the impact ness for SWE events and support risk as- of space weather phenomena, including on sessment and mitigation strategies by long-term observation of climate change and operators, impact models for different risk events”295. types of critical infrastructures, their interdependencies and ripple effects in society, should be developed in a coordi- Recommendations nated manner. • Global coverage from ground- and space- • European-wide protocols defining re- based observation systems is critical for sponsibilities and actions of the various ensuring the delivery of operational ser- stakeholders before, during and after vices and more mature forms of interna- SWE events should be established. tional coordination/cooperation in the ex- • An exercise under the Union Civil Protec- change of SWE data/products should tion Mechanism should be held with a therefore be established. view to establishing preparedness plans • There is also an evident need for ensur- and protocols that ensure coordinated ing consistency in forecasting, and coor- and prompts actions before, during, and dination of forecasts from different ser- after SWE events. vice providers is hence required. • The European Response Coordination • The prospected creation of an Interna- Centre should be entrusted with the re- tional Coordination Group for Space sponsibility to facilitate pan-European Weather (ICSW) should be supported by planning and coordination in case of SWE European stakeholders. event.

294 European Space Sciences Committee, 2017 295 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, 2017b

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Annexes

A.1 Explanation of Terms

Term Definition Alarm A notification in near-real time of the occurrence of a SWE event. Customer A paying recipient of a service. Data Observational measurements of any space weather parameter, raw or processed End User An entity, i.e. a person, organisation or electronic system, that ac- cesses/receives products or services. Expert Group An entity that provides expertise within a certain domain. Forecast A portrayal of the future space environment, based on historical and current data, proxies, and models. Governance The strategic, financial, regulatory or organisational aspects of a particular activity. Whilst governance is often associated with public institutions, these activities are also conducted by non-public entities. Near Real-time The data, product, or service is produced and delivered near, or as close as possible, to the same rate as which a space weather parameter is observed. Nowcast A representation of the current space environment based on data, proxies, and models. Product Data that is derived from a space weather model or tool, in some cases more than one. It has a defined format, is archived, repro- ducible, and can be utilised by one or more services. Real-time The data, product, or service is produced and delivered at the same rate as which a space weather parameter is observed. Service A collection of data products, software tools, technical reports and user support that fulfil the requirements of a specified user group. Space Situational Awareness Knowledge, understanding, and awareness of the status of space objects, the space environment, and posed threats/risks. Warning A notification in near real time of a potentially hazardous SWE event. Data Policy Rules and procedures for accessing, handling, storing and distributing both raw and processed data

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Earth’s dominant magnetic field, as opposed to magnetic fields of interplanetary space, The Near-Earth Orbit Environ- where the behaviour of charged particles is ment controlled by Earth’s magnetic field.301 The magnetosphere encompasses both the Earth’s magnetic field - originating from contributions The Ionosphere from the Earth’s core, the lithosphere, and the coupling of electrical currents between the ion- The Ionosphere is a region surrounding the osphere and the magnetosphere302 - and its Earth that is characterised by the ionised layer interplay with solar wind303. This region takes of the Earth’s atmosphere through its interac- the form a dipole, having north and south tion with solar and cosmic radiation296. The poles, with the pressure of solar wind causing Ionosphere is primarily produced by solar ra- a compression on the region of the Earth fac- diation that energises particles in the Earth’s ing the sun (day-side) and a long tail extend- atmosphere, causing them to lose an electron ing from the Earth on the opposite side (night- (i.e. ionisation), in turn forming a cloud of side). The magnetosphere is extremely dy- charge particles that is visible to the naked eye namic and responsive to solar variation304. from space as a colourful emission known as airglow297. This region extends between 50 to 360 miles (80-600km)298 above Earth’s sur- The Thermosphere face and is dynamic to variations in levels of solar and cosmic radiation299. This swelling of The Thermosphere refers to the atmospheric the ionosphere because of solar variation layer around the Earth that extends between means that its exact shape changes through- 53-375 miles (~750km/ 90-500km) in alti- 305 out the day, with the day-side ionosphere al- tude . Within this region, radiation of ener- ways being proportionally larger than the gised particles sourced from the Sun barrage night-side ionosphere300. oxygen and nitrogen molecules, which causes them to split into their constituent atoms to produce heat. Whilst temperature within the The Magnetosphere thermosphere increases with altitude because of decreasing abortion rates, it can also vary The magnetosphere refers to the spatial re- dependent on solar radiation levels306. gion surrounding the earth that is considered

296 Stanford Solar Center, 2018 302 Royal Academy of Engineering, 2013:11 297 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2016b 303 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 298 Royal Academy of Engineering, 2013:61 2018f 299 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2016b 304 Zell, 2011 300 Garner, 2016 305 Zell, 2013 301 Royal Academy of Engineering, 2013:61 306 Zell, 2013

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A.2 NOAA Space Weather Scales

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Radio Blackouts307

Radio Blackouts GOES X-ray Number of peak events when brightness flux level was by class met; (number and by of storm flux* days)

HF Radio: Complete HF (high frequency**) radio blackout X20 Fewer than 1 on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number (2x10-3) per cycle of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by R 5 Extreme maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning occur for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side. HF Radio: HF radio communication blackout on most of the X10 8 per cycle sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact (10-3) (8 days per lost during this time. cycle) R 4 Severe Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth. HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, X1 175 per cycle loss of radio contact for about an hour on the sunlit side of (10-4) (140 days Earth. per cycle) R 3 Strong Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on M5 350 per cycle the sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes. (5x10-5) (300 days R 2 Moderate Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation sig- per cycle) nals for tens of minutes. HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio commu- M1 2000 per cy- nication on the sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact. (10-5) cle R 1 Minor Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for (950 days brief intervals. per cycle)

* Flux, measured in the 0.1-0.8 nm range, in W·m-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered. ** Other frequencies may also be affected by these conditions.

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NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms308

Geomagnetic Storms Kp values* Nr. of storm deter- events when mined Kp level was every 3 met; (nr. of hours storm days) G 5 Extreme Power systems: widespread voltage control problems and pro- Kp=9 4 per cycle tective system problems can occur, some grid systems may (4 days per experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may cycle) experience damage. Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites. Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)** Power systems: possible widespread voltage control prob- Kp=8, in- 100 per cy- lems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out cluding a cle key assets from the grid. 9- (60 days per Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and cycle) tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation G 4 Severe problems. Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**. Power systems: voltage corrections may be required; false Kp=7 200 per cy- alarms triggered on some protection devices. cle Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satel- (130 days lite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satel- per cycle) lites, and corrections may be needed for orientation prob- G 3 Strong lems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**. Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience Kp=6 600 per cy- voltage alarms; long-duration storms may cause transformer cle damage. (360 days Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may per cycle) Moder- G 2 be required by ground control; possible changes in drag af- ate fect orbit predictions. Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**. Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Kp=5 1700 per cy- Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations cle possible. (900 days G 1 Minor Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and per cycle) higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.

* The K-index used to generate these messages is derived in real-time from the Boulder NOAA Magnetometer. The Boulder K- index, in most cases, approximates the Planetary Kp-index referenced in the NOAA Space Weather Scales. The Planetary Kp-

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index is not yet available in real-time.** For specific locations around the globe, use geomagnetic latitude to determine likely sightings

NOAA Space Weather Scale for Solar Radiation Storms309 Solar Radiation Storms Flux level Number of of > 10 events MeV par- when flux ticles level was (ions)* met** Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts 105 Fewer than on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in 1 per cycle high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk. *** Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, S 5 Extreme memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to lo- cate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible. Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult. Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on 104 3 per cycle EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems S 4 Severe may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded. Other systems: blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely. Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for as- 103 10 per cycle tronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.*** Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging S 3 Strong systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely. Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely. Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high 102 25 per cycle latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.*** Moder- Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible. S 2 ate Other systems: effects on HF propagation through the polar regions, and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected. Biological: none. 10 50 per cycle Satellite operations: none. S 1 Minor Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions.

* Flux levels are 5-minute averages. Flux in particles·s-1·ster-1·cm-2. Based on this measure, but other physical measures are also considered. ** These events can last more than one day. *** High energy particle measurements (>100 MeV) are a better indicator of radiation risk to passenger and crews. Pregnant women are particularly susceptible.

A.3 Space Weather Service Demand

This Annex details SWE impacts on various sector, and the technological systems needed service domains, addressing the aspects of to fulfil them. user identification and requirements for service provision, the potential benefits for each

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Space Operations a piece of hardware intended for in-orbit operations. This could be a new technology detector or solar panel, for instance, and further- Spacecraft Design more such an object can be encased within and surrounded by other objects and con- Spacecraft in orbit are exposed to a variety of structs to accurately represent either a single SWE phenomena (e.g. UV irradiation, neutral instrument or whole satellite. Such techniques particles, cold and hot plasma, particle radia- are not restricted to radiation effects, and the tion, and micro-meteoroids) that can cause effects on material due to interactions with significant damage or reduce the operational space plasma and electric and magnetic field life of satellites through degradation of elec- are readily studied. Having parameterised the tronic components, thermal changes, contam- orbit using the orbit generator, the hardware ination, excitation, spacecraft glow, charging, mock-up can then effectively 'be flown' for 310 etc. For example, it has been assessed that various epochs of the nominal mission, and the “one solar energetic particle (SEP) event may effects of the environment upon it quantified reduce the power from solar cells permanently and analysed”312. by as much as 5%. If the number of SEP events is underestimated by more than two These methods have been used extensively by events, then some systems may have to be several space agencies for their satellite sys- switched off in order to continue operating to- tems, enabling them to avoid large cost over- wards the end of the working life. This results heads associated with the over-design of op- in a reduced level of operations, reduced prof- erational satellites as they are built. However, itability, and the possibility of insurance it is anticipated that the need for more tailored claims”.311 services for spacecraft design will increase, especially if one considers a series of trends In order to prevent premature loss and pro- making spacecraft more and more susceptible vide sufficient protection against environment to SWE effects. Beyond the abovementioned conditions, a number of measures can be un- pressure not to over-engineer solution to SWE dertaken, the most important of which are at problems, it must be noted that: design level. The traditional solution at this stage has been “to heavily over-engineer the • Spacecraft are today designed for longer operational satellites to radiation problems”. operational lifetimes of up to 20 years (or However, because mounting pressures not to even more if in-orbit services become over-engineer solutions to keep costs down in- commercially available) evitably increase the susceptibility of space- • There are commercial pressures to in- craft to damage from SWE effects, it is essen- crease functionality and capacity, while tial to design spacecraft in an optimal manner reducing component mass, particularly of by considering both the short-term effects of electronic components single events and cumulative effects over the planned lifetime through worst case assess- • The continuous introduction of new tech- ments of the space-environment. Therefore, a nologies necessitates extensive testing to characterisation of the different SWE hazards determine the survivability of the compo- and their possible impacts on satellite’s sys- nents and the level of tolerated error mit- tems is an essential task during the design of igation through worst-case assessment of a space mission. The hazards and risks to the different SWE hazards and their pos- nominal operation that must be considered sible impacts on satellite’s systems. during the design stage include erosion, leak- Therefore, dedicated SWE services for space- age, charging, radiation damage, interference, craft design will be increasingly needed in the SEU latch-up, and puncture. Most spacecraft future. modifications for these space environment effects include component selection and testing, Users and Services Characterisation subsystem design, shielding requirements, End users procuring services primarily include grounding, error detection and correction, and spacecraft manufactures and space agencies, estimates of observation loss. and more specifically the personnel involved in As reported by ESA, today, “there is an in- producing space environment specifications creasingly diverse and sophisticated body of during the design of spacecraft. Their underly- software becoming available to study radiation ing needs can be summarised as follows: effects on materials, and such effects tools • Minimise over-design and the associated may be used in conjunction with environment costs tools to construct a realistic representation of

310 European Space Agency, 201lk 312 European Space Agency, 2018l 311 Horne, 2001

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• Define optimal design standards Examples of services that can be provided on the basis of the needs of these users are sum- • Ensure reliable operations marised in Table 17, together with possible ac- • Ensure maximum operational lifetime tions and benefits accruing from these services.

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Service Examples Possible Actions Benefits Leverage data archive to derive sta- Tailor the design of space sys- • Prevention of over de- tistical information on the space en- tems in relation to radiation sign vironment (including long-term solar protection, EMC and micro-par- • Cost savings cycle prediction) and its effects on ticle impacts. space systems (e.g. dose, single event upset, sensor background, cu- mulated charge, spacecraft anomalies, micro-particle impacts) Provide estimates of the environ- Use information for the im- • Validation of design ment’s effects actually experienced provement of models and for standards by a spacecraft through in-orbit in-flight validation of specifica- • More reliable opera- measurements of ionising radiation, tions of environments and ef- tions plasma, micro-particles, atmosphere, fects. UV and local magnetic field variations

Provide post-event analysis correlat- Identify failures related to SWE • Improve future design ing the space environment at a given effects and determine the vul- models time and/or location with effects and nerability of components, • Establishment of a anomaly events on specific space- equipment or spacecraft based new set of design craft, equipment or components. on the performed analyses standards could be used as input for fu- • Cost savings ture spacecraft models or ver- sions.

Table 17: Spacecraft design service examples, actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

Even the neutral atmosphere can be hazard- Spacecraft Operations ous, with neutral atomic oxygen known to lead to surface erosion of the platform materials, The environment in which spacecraft operate potentially compromising the surface and can pose a wide range of potential risks to the leading to surface charging. A greater risk to safety and continuity of their operations, data surface integrity comes in the form of debris transfer and service provision. As widely doc- and micro-meteoroids which can compromise umented by ESA, for instance: “cosmic rays and puncture materials due to their high ki- (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) netic and potential energies”.313 are known causes of single event upsets (SEUs) such as latch-ups in onboard electron- In addition, even when satellites remain active ics systems, often resulting in instruments and and functioning, ionospheric disturbances, potentially platforms automatically going into such as scintillation, can influence or disrupt safe mode. In the worst case, this can result signal propagation, and more specifically the in terminal damage. SEP events can disrupt transionospheric radio link which bridges com- telecommanding and data telemetry as a re- munication between ground and space sys- sult of the interference in data systems, and tems. Ionospheric disturbances can impact the the data itself is often worthless due to high functionality of radio systems in different ap- levels of noise. Trapped radiation in the radia- plication areas, including satellite communication belts leads to degradation of components tions, earth observation and PNT systems. as a result of prolonged dose, with processors, According to a study by PwC, the spacecraft detectors and solar cells particularly vulnera- anomalies attributable to SWE amount to €642 ble. A satellite passing through energetic million, with insurance claims for SWE anom- charged plasma will experience a range of alies totalling over €330 million (Pricewater- charging effects, both on the surfaces and in- houseCoopers, 2016). It is important to high- ternally within electrical systems, and these light, however, that because of its broad array charge differentials can lead to sudden dis- of service applications, the disruption or failure charges and subsequent failure of electrical of satellite systems due to severe SWE events, systems. Less energetic plasma also poses have the most wide impact effect across a problems, with discharge and sputtering often number of ground-based operations. This cas- leading to secondary electron emission and cading effect subsequently impairs the func- subsequent associated charging problems. tioning, in some cases completely, of ground-

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based sectors that are reliant on these net- the potential risks involved in spacecraft oper- works for their operation, including: ations. • Telecom Users and Services Characterisation • Broadcasting Satellite TV The primary entities making use of dedicated SWE services include flight control teams, op- • Weather forecast erations support engineers, and science oper- • Road and maritime transportation ations centre teams of national space agencies as well as public and private spacecraft oper- • Finance systems ators. Their basic needs can be summarised as Clearly the implications of interruptions of op- follows: erations, data transfer and service provision • Ensure the reliability of service provision are serious, in terms of both direct and indirect costs and effects. The provision of dedicated • Prevent the loss of data services offering forecasts and nowcasts of • Be on alert ready to deal with problems SWE events (e.g. solar flares, solar and magnetospheric energetic particle fluxes, geomag- • Identify causes of satellite failures netic storms, and total electron content) in Examples of services that can be provided on combination with their effects on spacecraft the basis of the needs of these users are sum- operation (e.g. in terms of radio frequency in- marised in Table 18, together with possible ac- terference, SEUs/latch-ups, radiation damage, tions and benefits accruing from these ser- charging, and telemetry signal propagation) is vices. therefore quintessential to mitigate against all

Services Examples Possible Actions Benefits

Provide near real-time estimate of Postpone or anticipate orbit ma- Better station keeping the space environment (e.g. in- noeuvres Save fuels and extend mis- creased atmospheric drag) and its sion lifetime effects on spacecraft Provide mission risk analysis Switch off non-essential sys- Protect satellite systems based on forecast of the space en- tems if the risk threshold is vironment conditions and mission crossed susceptibility assessment Provide forecast of the occurrence Re-route communications via Prevent loss of data risk of ionospheric disturbances other satellites and ground net- Ensure the availability and (e.g. scintillations) work continuity for service provider

Table 18: Spacecraft operation service examples, actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

year's usual exposure at Earth's surface”. Human Spaceflight Clearly, should major SEP events occur, the risk of higher exposure would swiftly increase. Humans in orbit are constantly exposed to a For instance, during the solar flare responsible number of hazards threatening their health for the SEPs and the large geomagnetic storm and safety. Space radiation is a major health of 18 October 1989, “the astronauts and cos- concern to astronauts. Even in LEO, where the monauts onboard the Mir space station re- effects of the Earth’s magnetic shielding are ceived their full-year recommended dose still strong, astronauts are exposed to space within a few hours”.314 radiation such as solar energetic particles (SEPs) and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These With longer and more distant manned mis- ionising radiations can generate both short- sions currently under the scrutiny of the inter- term physiological effects such as the 'flashes national space community, astronauts will face of light' experiences by the astronauts of the even more risks, as they will completely lose Apollo missions in the 1960s and 1970s, and the protection of Earth's magnetic field and will long-term biological effects such as damage to be fully exposed to SEPs and GCRs. To illus- the DNA and cell replication. ESA has esti- trate, “during the Apollo era, the risk of expo- mated that “in just one week on the ISS, as- sure was limited in time (less than 12 days), tronauts are exposed to the equivalent of one but for a Mars exploration it will be much

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longer (about 18 months) and solutions have also the flight operators for future space tour- to be found for the case when a life-threaten- ism and future human missions in outer space. ing event will occur”.315 Therefore, both public space agencies and private entities operating orbital or sub-orbital Against these backdrops, dedicated services to flights for space tourists (e.g. Virgin Galactic) circumvent these limiting factors for manned can procure such services. Their requirements space missions and to ensure the health and can be summarised as: safety of astronauts at all times are of para- mount importance. There is now a require- • Be aware and prepared to deal with po- ment to develop models using real time data tential SEPs and GCRs events to predict the intensity and location of solar • Minimise radiation exposure threats to as- energetic particle events, and to study the tronauts’ health longer-term effects of space radiation, so as to take appropriate preventive action. • Comply with health and safety regulations Users and Services Characterisation • Monitor astronauts’ health The primary entities making use of dedicated Examples of services that are or can be deliv- SWE services include the operation teams of ered for human spaceflight activities as per human spaceflight during launch operations their needs are briefly presented in Table 19, and activities inside and outside of the ISS, but together with possible actions and benefits accruing from these services.

Service Examples Ensuing Actions Benefits Provide forecast of the risk of Delay human spaceflight launch increased level of radiation Minimise risks for astronauts Re-schedule EVA activities along trajectory. Provide near real-time estimate Reduce radiation exposure to of the radiation dose received End EVA activities or use protec- astronauts by a person in space. Put staff tive shields Comply with health and safety and astronauts on alert in case regulations of SEP events Provide estimate of the past ra- Use data to monitor the accu- Monitor and assist astronauts’ diation dose accumulated by a mulated radiation dose health person in space.

Table 19: Launch operations service examples, actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

solar ions and protons pose a significant single Launch Operations event upset (SEU) threat to sensitive and complex electronics systems. The risk is high- SWE events can exercise a considerable im- est during solar energetic particle (SEP) pact on launch operations. Just like terrestrial events, so for a given launch there must be a weather, adverse space environment condi- clearly-defined threshold beyond which the tions can force postponement of a launch, launch may not be considered”. Dedicated thereby causing important financial and logis- tools and services must be in place to provide tical burdens. For instance, a launch delay can nowcast and forecast of SEP events, together impair the ability of commercial satellite oper- with the likely energetic radiation profile for a ators to ensure the continuity of services to given launch trajectory and an assessment of their customers or compromise the one-off the potential effects on both launcher and pay- launch window available for an interplanetary load must be made. Other potential tools for mission. In addition to delaying a rocket supporting launch operations against possible launch, adverse space environment conditions SWE hazards include risk assessments “from can seriously endanger critical operations such microparticle impacts and ionospheric effects as separation and orbit-insertion as well as on communications systems” as well as esti- “disrupt real-time communications between mates “on atmospheric drag which is affected the ground and space segments”.316 by current Space Weather conditions”.317 The major SWE hazard faced during the launch Users and Services Characterisation procedure is high energy radiation. “Energetic

315 European Space Agency, 2018n 317 European Space Agency, 2018o 316 European Space Agency, 2018o

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End users making use of dedicated services in • Determine the go/no-go threshold with this domain primarily include the entities in higher precision charge of operating launch vehicles, and more • Prevent hazards associated with SEP specifically the personnel involved in launch events operations. In the European context, this applies to the various stakeholders at the Guiana • Be aware of potential risks Space Centre: i.e. CNES, the launch site operator, ESA, the infrastructure operator, and Ar- Building on these needs, a non-exhaustive list ianespace, the launch service operator, and of services that are or can be delivered to also insurance companies. The requirements launch operators is presented in Table 20, to- of launch operators can be summarised as: gether with the ensuing actions and benefits accruing from the provision of the service. • Schedule launch procedures in an optimal manner

Service descriptions Possible Actions Benefits Provide estimate of the risk of Schedule launch operation Higher confidence in SEE risk SEP events along the launcher Go/no-go threshold trajectory. Risk estimate of service disrup- Anticipate possible disruptions tion caused by ionospheric scin- in communication tillations between ground station and launch vehicle along the trajectory. Forecast of the atmospheric Modify launch sequence Optimisation of launch proce- drag for fairing ejection dures

Provide estimate of the risk of Modify launch sequence Awareness of potential impact impacts by micro-particles (ob- risks jects with sizes below 1 mm) Provide near real-time estimate In-flight monitoring of the func- Higher confidence of radiation of the radiation effects on sen- tioning of the launcher’s elec- effects sitive electronics along the tronics. launcher’s trajectory. Provide estimate of past radia- Retrieve information to analyse Assess resilience of the tion effects on sensitive elec- flight data launcher’s electronics tronics along trajectory. Access to additional data

Table 20: Launch operations service examples, actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

ing active satellites318. Tracking objects in- Space Surveillance and Tracking volves the detection of objects and determin- ing the orbit state and levels of uncertainty. In addition to naturally occurring objects oc- SWE can impact on these measurements, for cupying Geospace, the Space Age has gener- example an objects trajectory can be influ- ated a vast number of man-made artefacts, enced by the density of the thermosphere, travelling within Earth’s orbit, that bring about which itself changes dependent on altitude, potential hazards and risks. These risks in- latitude and longitude319. As such, predicting clude threats in space, i.e. collisions and re- an object’s trajectory through varying densi- sulting adverse effects on space systems, as ties requires 3D modelling and forecasting of well as ground threats, i.e. uncontrolled and the thermosphere environment.320 high-risk re-entry. Whilst the object count in Earth’s orbit is in its millions, only around Users and Services Characterisation 13,000 (>10 cm in size) are regularly tracked Producing such models and predictions neces- – tracked items are mainly launcher bodies sitates reliable real-time data for nowcasts and and mission-related objects, with just 10% be- forecasts, as well as data from archives. End-

318 European Space Agency, 2018p 320 European Space Agency, 2018p 319 European Space Agency, 2018p

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users utilising these data products and ser- • Prevention of damage to space systems vices include surveillance and tracking cen- • Increased awareness and understanding tre(s), stations and services, spacecraft oper- of re-entry events. ators, collision warning services, and re-entry risk assessment services. Their main require- Reflecting on these requirements, Table 21 ments include: presents a non-exhaustive list of services, possible actions that can be taken and bene- • Adequate modelling of the geospace envi- fits, that can be delivered to improve overall ronment and factors that can influence object trajectory SST operation: • Improved precision of SST methods

Service Example Possible Actions Benefits Atmospheric estimates for The creation of models of object • More accurate object tra- drag calculations trajectory including drag effect jectory forecasting Archive of geomagnetic and Allows the user to input data on so- • More accurate object tra- solar indices for drag calcu- lar and geomagnetic indices into jectory forecasting lation their own in-house models Forecast of geomagnetic Predict risk of losing track of ob- • Management of and pre- and solar indices for drag jects and place staff on alert paredness for loss of track calculation events Nowcast of ionospheric Estimation of ionospheric refraction • Increased tracking preci- group delay of radio waves can be used to cor- sion rect positions derived from radar tracking

Table 21: SST service examples, actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

In the future, it can be expected that SWE aircraft to latitudes in which satellite commu- nowcasts and forecasts in this domain will also nication cannot be used, thus becoming reliant need to evolve to cope with the emerging re- instead on high-frequency radio communica- quirements of an operational Space Traffic tion for operations.322 Dependency on radio Management (STM) framework, rather than be communication when using transpolar routes limited to the provision of products for space can be disrupted by severe SWE events, i.e. surveillance. during solar radiation storms, SEPs, generally protons accelerated by CMEs, travel down geomagnetic field lines to the polar ionosphere, Non-Space Operations increasing ionised gas density, which can interfere with radio wave propagation and cause 323 Aviation radio blackouts. These events can sometimes last several days, The aviation industry is one of the many sec- in which case the diversion of aircraft routes tors that can be affected by disruptions in to altitudes in which satellite communications space-based GNSS services (discussed in 4.2 can be used is necessary – as was the case in above). Beyond this, SWE alerts and warnings January 2005 when 26 aircraft of United Air- are being increasingly utilised and integrated lines had to be redirected to non-polar, or less into the operations of commercial airlines as viable polar routes to avoid radio blackout, the popularity of transpolar routes grows – causing increased flight time, extra landings these routes “offer the advantage of avoiding and take-offs, increased fuel usage and costs, prevailing head winds as well as being on the and delays to other flights.324 In addition to great circle route for many destinations” thus this, solar particle and high-energy cosmic reducing flight times, increasing fuel effi- rays can produce a number of other high-en- ciency, and potentially reducing environmen- ergy particles through their interactions with tal impact.321 Whilst there are clear economic the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Due to proxim- and environmental benefits – i.e. reducing fuel ity, the flux of ionising radiation for typical air- usage and costs – from using transpolar craft cruising altitudes being ~300 times that routes, travelling through these areas takes of sea level, exposure to such SWE radiation

321 World Meteorological Organisation, 2008:6 323 National Research Council, 2008:7 322 National Research Council, 2008:6 324 National Research Council, 2008:8

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puts the health of aircraft passengers and crew The primary entities of interest for SWE ser- safety at particular risk.325 Increased integra- vices in the aviation sector include regulatory tion of SWE services, such as warnings and bodies, operators, scientists and experts, and alerts, in the commercial airline industry, sim- insurance companies. The service needs for ilar to volcanic ash warnings, can potentially the aviation sector can be characterised as fol- “improve efficiency of the end-to-end warning lows: process through relying on established proce- • Optimisation of flight routes, flight sched- dures and communication tools… and contrib- uling and fuel efficiency ute to aeronautical safety”.326 • Ensuring the health and safety of crew Users and Services Characterisation and passengers from radiation exposure SWE services for the aviation sector come in • Improved vehicle design the form of forecasts, nowcasts and alerts for radiation events as well as disruptions to • Compliance with regulations and interna- GNSS and communication systems, mostly in tional standards high latitude zones. These will be used primarily by airline operators for the scheduling, or Several service examples for the aviation sec- rescheduling, of flight times and routes. tor that build on these needs, including potential actions that can be taken, and benefits from service use are presented in Table 22.

Service Example Possible Actions Benefits Cosmic ray dose forecasts & Allows for appropriate mitiga- • Increased crew and pas- Radiation storm forecasts tion procedures in the short- senger safety (5,12, 18 hours in advance) term, such as crew change • Compliance with exposure and warnings and/or and flight path rerouting limits or rescheduling. • Computation of crew exposure • Optimisation of flight path and fuel efficiency Post event information on radi- Developing knowledge of flight • Increases the ability of air- ation levels on a series of pre- paths for longer-term planning line coordinators to plan defined routes used by com- and route selection. flight-paths in the long mercial airlines (<1 week delay term if significant activity). • Avoid last minute delays, rescheduling or rerouting and associated costs A graphical forecast including This information can be used by • Improved route selection, intensity, onset, duration and airlines to select optimal routes management and emer- boundary of degraded commu- and develop necessary emergency response nications for polar routes (12- gency response procedures. • Compliance with interna- 24 hours) in accordance with tional standards international standards Statistical information on the Use input to improve avionics Improved aircraft design radiation environment at air- design for aircraft craft altitude for avionics. Radiation and ionospheric data Support anomaly resolution and Improved aircraft design and for post-event analyses for air- dose reconstruction in case of safety craft operators observed in-flight avionics errors.

Table 221: Aviation service examples, actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

power, GNSS and radio communications, are Railways susceptible to severe SWE events through direct impacts (e.g. GIC effects on rail tracks Railway operations, as both long distance con- and transformers) and indirect impacts ductive networks and systems dependent on

325 Royal Academy of Engineering, 2013:38 326 World Meteorological Organisation, 2008:7

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through their dependencies on other critical implementation of appropriate safety infrastructures used for operations (e.g. measures”.332 The UK Association of Train Op- power, communication and navigation).327 erators and Network Rail has also expressed While cases of SWE impacts on rail operation an interest in improving the strategy of re- have been well documented in Sweden and sponding to SWE alerts and warnings, iterating Russia, the railway sector lags behind other in- the role of SWE services in protecting and mit- dustries, such as aviation, in terms of aware- igating SWE related system failure of the rail ness and preparedness to protect against networks.333 these effects.328 In line with this lack of cer- Users and Services Characterisation tainty, a study conducted in the UK by Atkins, RAL and The University of York identified some Railway operators will be the primary users of of the key areas of impact that a severe SWE SWE services in this sector through forecasts event could have on the rail sector329. In re- and nowcasts of GICs that can affect the rail gard to power, as noted above, if GICs disrupt tracks. Second to this, train drivers and on the power grids, normal rail operations would board/station crew members will be able to most definitely be affected. In terms of inter- develop procedures to react to warnings and nal rail infrastructure, the failure of transform- alerts that may affect rail services. ers – which distribute power up and down the lines – will cause similar effects; as well as po- The chief stakeholders in the rail sector to tentially disrupting services at stations, e.g. whom SWE will be of interest include railway lighting, lifts, ticket barriers and passenger in- operators, rail service staff, regulators, and formation screens, posing additional threats to scientists/experts. The main requirements for safety330. In terms of loss of GNSS services services within the railway domain include: during GIC events, timing and synchronisation • Maintaining ability to command and con- issues may occur for rail operations. These can trol the network impact the capabilities of positioning, rail condition monitoring and maintenance, telecom- • Safety for railway users and staff munications, power control and supplier • Post-event analysis of the network spares tracking, essentially reducing or completely halting the operator’s ability to com- • Identification of risks 331 mand and control the rail network. In addi- Several examples of services that can be pro- tion to closing knowledge gaps on direct and vided on the basis of the needs of these users indirect SWE impacts on rail operation, includ- in the railway sector are summarised in Table ing re-analysis of historical data on potential 23, together with possible actions and benefits SWE rail impacts, Atkins recommends “setting accruing from these services. up of systems to notify track-side staff of space-weather related dangers to allow the

Service Example Possible Actions Benefits Providing forecasts or real- Notifications to railway staff • Mitigating loss of signal time warnings on geomag- members and operators during • Reducing cost of delays netic induced current (GIC) GIC events so that safety • Improving rail operator’s events to railway operators measures can be implemented ability to command and control • Improving rail safety and quality of service for users Post-event analysis of GIC ef- Evaluation of risks to disruption • Improve the resilience of fects on railways and transis- to signalling and train control and railways to GIC events tors devising engineering solutions • Improved knowledge of GIC impacts on railways GNNS disruption alerts

Table 23: Railway service examples, potential actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

327 Krausmann et al., 2016:8-9 331 Krausmann et al., 2015:6 328 Krausmann et al., 2016:8-9 332 Krausmann et al., 2015:4 329 McCormack, 2017 333 Krausmann et al., 2015:4 330 McCormack, 2017

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services that provide forecasts for, and real- Resource Exploitation time data on, variations and disturbances in magnetic conditions. In the case of surveying The geophysical resource exploration and ex- (particularly aeromagnetic surveys337), there traction sector is heavily dependent on the are notable cost implications for having to re- precise positioning provided GPS/GNSS sys- peat geophysical surveys, creating a need for tems for the conduct of geophysical surveys reliable geomagnetic forecast services for the and directional drilling operations. For geo- use of planning survey operations.338 In terms physical surveying, it is commonplace to sur- of drilling, there is economic balancing from vey “geomagnetic field intensity, and to ex- weighing up the “cost of stopping drilling op- press the difference between the observed erations (costing many hundreds of thousands value and a notional value of the core-gener- of dollars per day) against the costs that might ated field as the “magnetic anomaly” field, arise from errors in the path of the drill string, which may aid in interpretation of subterra- particularly the risk of intersecting other well nean structure and composition.334 In the case paths, which can lead to blow-outs”339, whilst of guided or directional drilling, precise forecasting is still desirable in this case, there GPS/GNSS measurements “are used to deter- is more significance placed on the user need mine the orientation of the drill string and of reliable real-time monitoring services (now- therefore to guide the direction of drilling”.335 casting).340 SWE can impact both these dimensions of resource exploitation through the interference The primary parties interested in SWE services experienced during geomagnetic storm events for resource exploitation include geophysical that disturb the magnetic field, skewing sur- surveyors, drilling operators and extractors. vey data and reducing accuracy. Thus large Their central requirements include: businesses in this sector, e.g. BP and Shell, • Avoiding useless data and repeat surveys “seek information on near-time geomagnetic conditions so they can schedule surveys dur- • Enabling the continuity of drilling opera- ing quiet periods,” typically avoiding surveys tions during SWE events in such conditions as the results may be Based on the users and needs outlined here, 336 worthless. Table 24 provides examples of services within Users and Services Characterisation the resource exploitation sector, potential actions to be taken, and the benefits of such ser- In the resource exploitation industry, geo- vices: physical surveyors (primarily aeromagnetic surveys, but also ground-based), and directional drill operators, can make use of SWE

Service Possible Action Benefits Nowcast and forecast (0-6hr, Suspending surveys during pe- • Prevents accumulating use- 24-48hr) of local geomagnetic riods of strong geomagnetic ac- less data activity for aerial survey opera- tivity, and rescheduling flights • Reduced costs associated tions with repeating an aerial survey Predictions of variations in the Enables drilling operators to • Allows for the continuation Earth’s magnetic field and real- apply magnetic corrections of drilling operations with time magnetometer data for more accurately, and more fre- accuracy drilling operations quently if necessary. • Reduces costs associated with ceasing operations for any length of time

Table 24: Resource exploitation service examples, potential actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

334 Clark, 2001:2 338 Clark, 2001:1 335 Hapgood, 2010:19 339 Hapgood, 2010:19 336 Hapgood, 2010:19 340 Clark, 2001:2 337 European Space Agency, 2018q

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occurred, but before they reach the near-Earth Power Grids environment.344 The provision of forecasts and nowcasts for such GIC events can be com- Rapid variations of the geomagnetic field, pared to current meteorological support “pro- caused during geomagnetic storms and result- vided to energy suppliers for the optimal ex- ant ionospheric currents associated with the ploitation and sustainability of their network, aurora, produce an electric field on the Earth’s which encompasses multiple aspects such as surface that in turn induces unwanted currents medium-range and short-range temperature through electrical power grids and other forecasting for anticipating heating user de- grounded conductors.341 Consequentially, mand, nowcasting for lighting demand over these currents can affect the stability of power large cities, and early warning of stormy and transmission networks and cause transformers icing conditions for maintenance pre-alerts. It to burn out. This happened during the geo- is anticipated that integration of Space magnetic storm of March 1989, which led to Weather warnings could serve the overall effi- the Hydro-Quebec grid failure – the storm re- ciency of the end-to-end warning process and lated geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) thus be beneficial to operators and end-us- could not be mitigated by Hydro-Quebec’s au- ers”.345 GIC events can ultimately cause dam- tomatic voltage compensation equipment.342 age to transformers, and increased generator Electrical grid operators can mitigate or pre- capacity can be necessary to maintain power vent damage from GICs by optimising design, supply during such events, necessitating fore- introducing protective equipment, “or by re- casts and real-time mapping of GIC impacts on distributing and changing the power-genera- the grid network. Additionally, improved tion resources so that fewer long-distance knowledge of impacts, through analysis of his- transfers are needed and more near-locally- torical and future events, can also improve this generated power is available to counter fre- sector’s resilience. quency and voltage modulations.” In contexts such as the UK, with comparatively compact The major users of SWE services in the power grid systems, “bringing all available grid links grid sector include power grid operators, sci- into operation in order to maximize redun- entists and experts, insurance companies, and dancy and to spread GICs over the whole sys- service providers. Services requirements tem” can reduce the overall impact on individ- within the domain of power grid operation in- ual elements”.343 clude: Users and Services Characterisation • Reduced damage to the network and transformers For power grid operators to improve system protection, this industry sector has stressed • Identification of system status and risks the importance of and need for reliable fore- • Continuity of service casts for GICs, including their magnitude and duration, with at least half a day warning. Table 25 outlines a few service examples for Propagation of CMEs from the Sun to Earth power grid operation, detailing possible ac- typically take from 2-4 days (the fastest tions and potential benefits from service pro- known events taking around 0.75 days), vision: hence forecasts are necessary, and observa- tionally possible, after the solar eruption has

Service Examples Possible Actions Benefits A tailored service for generat- A networked map of GICs • Reduced downtime ing Network maps showing ge- through the grid system can al- • Continuity of service omagnetically induced currents low operators to carry out in- • Reduce risk of transformer throughout the power system spections of affected areas or damage including plotting local E-field promptly increase generator and GIC by substation for reg- capacity if necessary istered users.

A tailored service for specific Recent, near real-time GIC • Identification of system be- users providing a table of mod- data products can be used for haviour and risks elled GIC values for the users anomaly identification and res- • Continuity of service olution

341 National Research Council, 2009:4; Royal Academy of 343 Schrijver et al., 2015:2755-2756 Engineering, 2013:22 344 Schrijver et al., 2015:2755-2756 342 National Research Council, 2009:4 345 World Meteorological Organisation, 2008:7

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network in the last minute and peak GIC in the last 60 minutes

A global forecast of geomag- Advanced warning of GICs can • Maintain power supply dur- netic activity from 15 minutes allow grid operators to increase ing a geomagnetic storm up to 27 days ahead. power generating capacity

Table 25: Power grid service examples, potential actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

Users and Services Characterisation Pipeline Operations The main stakeholders with interests in SWE Similar to electrical power grids and railways, services within this domain include pipeline wide ranging conductive networks such as operators, pipeline developers, and scientists long-distance oil and gas pipelines can be af- and experts. The key service requirements for fected by GICs. GICs resulting from space pipeline operation entail: weather, i.e. geomagnetic storms, interfere • Identification of events and risks associ- with the “cathodic protection systems” used by ated with pipeline corrosion pipeline operators to reduce the corrosion rates on pipelines by applying “an electrical • Management of pipeline inspections and voltage opposite to that generated by the replacement chemical processes that cause corrosion and • Post-event analysis of the network for im- thereby slow the corrosion rate,” essentially proved pipeline design and management hampering the protective effectiveness and reducing the longevity of a pipeline.346 Negative Examples of services that are or can be deliv- impacts on pipelines running through high lat- ered for pipeline operations according to the itude areas, such as pipelines through Alaska user needs outlined are briefly presented in and Finland347 that are within the auroral zone, Table 26 together with possible actions and are commonly observed due to aurora associ- benefits accruing from these services. ated electrical currents. Additional studies have also highlighted these effects occurring at mid- and low-latitudes348

Service Example Potential Actions Benefits Global forecast of geomag- Allows pipeline companies to • Improved management of netic activity from 15 suspend routine maintenance corrosion risks minutes up to 27 days and measurements of the ca- • Planning of pipeline inspection ahead. thodic protection during GIC and replacement events, and coordinate appropriate timings for inspections and replacements

A tailored service for specific Monitoring and evaluation GIC • Increased understanding of users providing pipe-to-soil impacts on the cathodic protec- GIC impacts on the cathodic potential difference (PSP) tion system on long-distance protection system variations in the user’s pipe pipelines can allow for pipeline • Improving pipeline design and network. assessment and developing resilience to reduce pipeline pipeline design corrosion

Table 26: Pipeline operation service examples, potential actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

disturbances in the near-Earth environment, Auroral Tourism Sector which can cause the auroral lighting effects seen primarily at high latitudes.349 There is an Auroras are a natural product of space existing market within the tourism sector to weather events. Solar activity, such as coronal see such auroral events, which provides po- holes, flares and CMEs, causes geomagnetic

346 Hapgood, 2010:18; European Space Agency, 2011:71 348 Marshall et al., 2010; Hapgood, 2010:19 347 Pulkkinen et al., 2001 349 European Space Agency, 2018q

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tential for reliable forecasts – the further in ad- Users and Services Characterisation vance the better – to further develop the tour- Users of SWE services for auroral tourism in- ist market through provision to tourism com- clude tourist companies, airline companies and panies and commercial airlines.350 tourist themselves. The key service requirements for this domain involve: • Prediction of conditions leading to optical aurora events, • Early notification of aurora events A service example that could be delivered for the auroral tourism sector is presented in Ta- ble 27, together with possible actions and benefits accruing from these services. Notably, there is a widely available mobile subscription service (Night Sky Alerts351) for auroral alerts.

Service Example Actions Benefits Forecast of the probability of Forecasts could be communi- • Targeted marketing visible auroras (>12hours, cated between tourism compa- • Develop the aurora tourism >6hours). nies, airlines and tourists to al- market low for appropriate advertise- ments and bookings to view aurora events.

Table 27: Auroral tourism service example, potential actions and benefits (source: European Space Agency, 2011)

A.4 Selected National SWE Weather Activities in Europe

serves as the ESA Expert Service Center for Space Radiation, providing real-time estima- Austria tions of dose rates for aircrafts at different altitudes and dose rates at any desired loca- Within Austria, the international need for SWE tion.353 The Space Research Institute354 in services is recognised and implemented Graz is additionally active in dedicated SWE through the collaboration of a number of na- satellite missions. tional institutions. The Institute of Physics at the University of Graz (ESA’s Expert Service Centre for Heliospheric Weather) acts as a me- diator and coordinator between different Belgium groups, addressing both SWE research and The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) at The services. The institute of Physics itself pro- Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB)355 is host vides real-time solar wind forecasting as well to a “rolling archive of the latest 6 months of as CME forecasting tools, whilst its Kanzelhöhe data of the full AIA data, HMI magnetogram Observatory (ESA’s Expert Service Center for and HMI intensitygram, as well as a long-du- Solar Weather) provides real-time alerts and ration, low cadence data set, and a subset of 352 warnings for solar flare events. The Conrad the most frequently required events.”356 As Observatory, in collaboration with the Seibers- part of this, the ROB facilitates access for ex- dorf Laboratories, deals with ground-induced ternal users to retrieve SDO data, accessible currents and local magnetic field variations online via web-interfaces.357 The Solar Influ- which consequence from solar activities, addi- ences Data Analysis Center (SIDC)358 is part of tionally part of ZAMG, the national weather ROB and a partner in the Solar Terrestrial Cen- services. The Seibersdorf Laboratories also ter of Excellence (STCE).359 It is the mission of

350 Horne, 2001:36-37 355 Royal Observatory of Belgium, 2018 351 Night Sky Alerts, 2018 356 Committee on Space Research, 2018:57 352 Temmer, 2018 357 Committee on Space Research, 2018:57 353 Ibid. 358 Solar Influences Data analysis Center, 2018 354 Graz Institute for Space Research, 2018 359 Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence, 2018

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SIDC to “advance knowledge on the Sun and 1996, the Grand Unified Magnetosphere-Iono- its influence on the solar system, through re- sphere Coupling Simulation is coordinated search and observations” additionally provid- through FMI and “models the dynamic effects ing knowledge and expertise to the scientific of changing solar wind conditions in the near- community, government, industry and wider Earth space. It is a global, three-dimensional society, the provision of operational services magnetohydrodynamic simulation model of and their dissemination at national and inter- the Earth's magnetosphere, and it includes an national levels.360 The Novel EIT wave Machine electrostatic ionosphere model”.369 As men- Observing (NEMO – EIT wave detector) has tioned, the FMI also hosts the Centre for Nat- also been developed and hosted at ROB, de- ural Disasters (LUOVA), which provides an tecting EUV waves and coronal dimmings as- early-warning system, conducts 24/7 monitor- sociated with CMES. Other institutions in Bel- ing, real-time risk assessments and forecasts, gium that are active in SWE research and ser- with regards to SWE events as well as terres- vices include the Belgian Institute for Space trial based causes of natural disasters.370 Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB),361 the Meteorological Funded by the Academy of Finland, the Re- Institute (RMI)362 and the Katholieke Universi- search on Solar Long-term Variability and Ef- teit Leuven.363 fects (ReSoLVE) Center of Excellence was es- ESA’s SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre tablished in 2014 – a collaboration of five re- (SSCC) is also located in Belgium at the Space search teams from the University of Oulu and Pole, marking the first European Space Aalto University, “focused on studying the Weather Helpdesk that provides operators and long-term solar variability and is effects in experts to answer enquires regarding SWE near-Earth space, atmosphere and cli- conditions or the SWE precursor service net- mate”.371 Other Finnish SWE projects include work.364 SOLE, focused on solar storms and their frequency), and SAFIR’s Extreme weather and nuclear power plants (EXWE)372 project, stud- Finland ying the impact of solar storms on nuclear safety.373 At a national level Finland has several institutions and public agencies that focus on SWE. Notably here, the Finnish Meteorological Insti- France tute (FMI) has a multi-pronged approach to SWE, focusing on SWE research, operational A large proportion of SWE activities in France services, and SWE customers.365 In 2014, FMI are conducted by the French Space Agency created the national 24/7 SWE service in Fin- (CNES) and the French Air Force land, integrated into FMI’s existing monitoring (CDAOA/COSMOS). Under the coordination system for natural disasters.366 FMI’s Earth and management of CNES, France has also es- Observation unit, in collaboration with the tablished a national group of over 30 experts Weather and Safety Centre and the Artic Re- from multiple institutions, i.e. universities and search unit are responsible for the monitoring observatories, and public agencies e.g. CNES, and forecasting of potentially dangerous SWE Météo France, and the Ministry of Defence.374 events, providing alerts and warnings on a This expert group is tasked with providing an 24/7 basis.367 The FMI itself published 329 assessment of potential impacts on four key peer-reviewed papers in 2013 alone, making it domains, including: defence, space, civil avia- first in the world in terms of publishing production, terrestrial technological infrastructure, tivity. A large reason for this is historical, with and the promotion of sharing of SWE post- the FMI having been established as early as event analysis.375 Other nationally led SWE ac- 1938 when it began collecting ground mag- tivities include: a SWE system for the French netic records.368 Air force for military purposes; and ONERA, supported by CNES, which develops advanced Finland is also home to Europe’s only space SWE applications in the field of space radiation weather simulation. Beginning in 1993 on the i.e. real-time nowcasting of the Earth’s ionosphere, with the magnetosphere added in trapped particle environment using data assimilation techniques that allow the optimal

360 Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence, 2018 370 Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2014 361 Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, 2018 371 Research on SOlar Long-term Variability and Effects, 362 Royal Meteorological Institute, 2018a 2018 363 Committee on Space Research, 2018 372 The Finnish Research Programme on Nuclear Power 364 Royal Meteorological Institute, 2018b Plant Safety, 2018 365 Palmroth et al., 2014 373 European Commission, 2017b:66 366 World Meteorological Organisation, 2018b 374 United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer 367 European Commission, 2017b:65 Space, 2017c 368 Palmroth et al., 2014 375 Ibid. 369 Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2014

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combination of in-situ measurements and Italy physics-based models. Whilst there may be no truly operational SWE services in France, it SWE activities in Italy are conducted by sev- does indeed possess many SWE assets, includ- eral universities and research bodies such as ing two thematic poles – the Multi-Experiment INGV (National Institute for Geophysics and Data and Operations Centre (MEDOC) and the Volcanology) and INAF (National Institute of Centre de Données de la Physique des Plasmas Astrophysics), as well as the Italian Space (CDDP) – as well as several serval data ar- Agency (ASI) and Italian Air Force.380 In 2014, chives, e.g. the Neutron Monitor Data Base an interest group (Space Weather Italian Com- (NMDB), models, and individual developing munity – SWICo) formed by scientists of uni- services, e.g. Radiation belt models for the versities, national research institutions and Earth’s environment (CRATERRE).376 representatives of Italian Industries was established to better exploit and develop national expertise in observational, theoretical Germany studies and modelling, as well as application in industrial sectors.381 In Germany SWE research is conducted at several research institutes and universities, in- In terms of service provision, INGV developed cluding the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and manages a real time Ionospheric Weather the German Research Centre for Geosciences Service able to provide now-casts and short- (GFZ), the Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik term forecasts on Ionospheric TEC maps over Potsdam (AIP), the Max-Planck Institute for Italy and Europe; vertical sounding parame- Solar System Research (MPS), the University ters and electron density profile over Rome of Goettingen, and the Christian-Albrechts- and Gibilmanna (Sicily); ionospheric scintilla- University (CAU) of Kiel. tion and TEC in mid and high European latitudes; geomagnetic indices (DST and Kp from As the national space agency, DLR has been Kyoto WDC and NOAA spwc); and solar activ- supporting SWE-related missions (e.g. ity (from NASA SDO).382 INGV and INAF also STEREO), and international initiatives such as provide real-time data and indices on the ge- the worldwide, near real-time network named omagnetic field and are developing forecasting GIFDS (Global Ionospheric Flare Detection services for GICs events. Additional service System), and the educational project named prototypes (SWERTO, FLARECAST, IPS) have SOFIE (SOlar Flares detected by Ionospheric been developed by Italian institutions within 377 Effects). DLR also supports the activities of the EU’s FP7 and H2020 framework. the German Space Situational Awareness Cen- tre (GSSAC) and operates the Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC). Sweden The IMPC offers a near real-time information SWE activities in Sweden are mainly entrusted and data service on the current state of the to the Swedish Space Weather Center (SRC), ionosphere as well as related forecasts and which is part of the Swedish Institute of Space warnings of ionospheric disturbances. IMPC Physics, and to the Swedish Civil Contingen- products include Total Electron Content (TEC) cies Agency (MSB), which is responsible for maps, scintillation indices and Rate of Change preventing and preparing for emergencies of TEC index, among others. IMPC products stemming from SWE events in collaboration are disseminated via their website and users with public and private stakeholders. MSB's can subscribe to receive warning messages via work includes monitoring and defining contin- e-mail. IMPC also conducts research activity in gency plans for the types of SWE events that ionospheric science, including ionospheric per- have a low occurrence probability but could turbation detection, modelling and forecast- have major repercussions in space and on the ing, empirical and physical modelling and 3D ground. electron density reconstructions.378 In terms of SWE services, the SRC, which is Besides IMPC, the GSSAC, hosted by the Ger- also one of the 14 regional warning centres of man Air Force Operations Centre, provides ISES, provides nowcasts and postcasts on the SWE products and alerts for the support of na- effects of solar activity, including radiation tional decision-making, the protection of Ger- hazards to astronauts, satellite problems, and man population, the support of German armed navigation system problems stemming from forces in theatre, and the protection of space proton storms as well as low frequency and HF infrastructure.379 communication problems stemming from radio

376 Dudok de Wit, 2015 380 Agenzia Spaziale Italiana, 2018 377 Wenzel et al., 2017 381 Space Weather Italian Community, 2018 378 Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center, 2018 382 Romano, 2017 379 Braun, 2018

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blackouts.383 Additionally, the SRC provides are customised information services address- forecast services on the effects of solar wind ing the needs of specific sectors.386 and Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), including Other active public agency research pro- “geomagnetic storms (Kp >= 5 or Dst < -50 grammes include the Natural Environmental nT) and problems for electrical systems such Research Council’s (NERC) British Geological as power grid systems and gas pipelines (fore- Survey (BGS) which examines daily solar ac- casts of 3-hourly Kp-index and one-hourly tivity and provides forecasts and alters on po- Dst-index) and geomagnetically induced cur- tential geomagnetic storms with likely terres- rents for one station in Southern Sweden: trial impacts, available on the BGS website;387 (30-minute forecasts of GIC)”.384 and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) and its Rutherford Appleton La- boratory (RAL) which funds solar-terrestrial UK physics research.388 Besides these agencies, Within the UK, the Cabinet Office cooperates other UK based funders of SWE research and on the national SWE strategy with local first activity include a number of UK universities responders - the National Grid, rail networks, (e.g. UCL Mullard Space Science Labora- 389 and the aviation sector. Beyond this, the UK tory). Combining UK SWE activity hubs, in Met Office has also set up the Met office Space recent years three out of four teams – Airbus Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC), which STFC RAL, and UCL – have been leading an is an “operational manned 24/7 forecaster” ESA mission to reduce the impacts of SWE by th that, besides conducting observations and placing a spacecraft at the 5 Lagrange (L5) data analysis, provides general and tailored point, significantly improving European SWE services, i.e. forecasts and alerts on solar ac- observation and forecasting capabilities.390 tivity, solar wind/geomagnetic activity, solar The UK Space Agency (UKSA) is also taking a radiation etc., to user groups, i.e. UK critical more prominent role in SWE activities. Despite infrastructure sectors and operators, the gov- its exact role in SWE during the time of its es- ernment and military so that they can prepare tablishment being unclear,in 2016, €22 Million for impacts.385 Similar to NOAA’s SWPC, was committed by UKSA to ESA’s SSA pro- MOSWOC provides tailored services to differ- gramme.391 ent user groups, e.g. texts and graphics, which

A.5 Selected Worldwide Institutions Involved in SWE

Country Institution Argentina • Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE) • Institute of Astronomy and Space Physics, University of Buenos Aires • National Council of Scientific and Technical Research Australia • Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) • SPACE Research Centre, RMIT Austria • Space Research Institute • Conrad Observatory • Institute of Physics, University of Graz • Kanzelhöhe Observatory Belgium • Royal Observatory of Belgium (SIDC) • Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence in Belgium (STCE) Brazil • National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Bulgaria • Space Research and Technology Institute

383 Swedish Institute of Space Physics, 2018 388 Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, 2018 384 Ibid. 389 UK Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 385 UK Met Office, 2018 2010:2 386 Krausmann et al., 2016:11 390 UK Government, 2018 387 British Geological Survey, 2018 391 UK Government, 2018

ESPI Report 68 101 February 2019

Canada • Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) China • China Meteorological Organisation (CMA) • National Astronomical Obervatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences • National Space Science Centre, Chinese Academy of Sciences Czech Republic • Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences Denmark • DTU Space, National Space Institute Egypt • Space Weather Monitoring Centre Ethiopia • Washera Geospace and Radar Science Research Laboratory Finland • Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory • Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) France • Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) • Centre Opérationnel de Surveillance Militaire des Objets Spatiaux (COSMOS) Germany • German Aerospace Centre (DLR) • German Air Force Operations Centre Hungary • Debrecen Heliophysical Observatory • Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences India • Space Physics Laboratory, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre • National Remote Sensing Centre • Radio Astronomy Centre, National Centre for Radio Astrophysics, Tata In- stitute of Fundamental Research • Indian Institute of Geomagnetism Indoneasia • Space Science Centre, Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) Italy • Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) • Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF) • Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) Japan • National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT), Kyushu University • Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) • Planetary Plasma and Atmospheric Research Centre, Tohoku University Kazakhstan • Institute of Ionosphere Kenya • Technical University of Kenya Malaysia • Space Science Centre, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia • GNSS & Geodynamics Research Group, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Mexico • Instituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México • Mexican Space Agency Nigeria • National Space Research and Development Agency • Center for Satellite Technology Development • Center for Atmospheric Research Netherlands • Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Norway • Norwegian Centre for Space Weather • Norwegian Space Centre • Birkeland Centre for Space Science, University in Bergen Peru • Comisión Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Aeroespacial • Centro de Radio Astronomía e Astrofísica Mackenzie (CRAAM), Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzi Philippines • Manila Observatory Poland • Space Research Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences • Astronomical Institute, University of Wrocław

ESPI Report 68 102 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Russia • Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) • Institute of Applied Geophysics Slovakia • Slovak Central Observatory • Astronomical Institute SAS South Africa • South Africa National Space Agency (SANSA) South Korea • Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) • National Radio Research Agency (RRA) Switzerland • Institute for Astronomy, ETH Zurich Spain • Servicio Nacional de Meteorología Espacial, Spanish National Space Weather Service (SeNMEs, Universidad de Alcalá) Tunisia • Laboratoire de Spectroscopie Atomique, Moléculaire et Applications, Uni- versity of Tunis El Manar Ukraine • Space Research Institute, Kyiv • Main Center of Special Monitoring, Gorodok United Kingdom • British Geological Survey (BGS) • STFC RAL Space • United Kingdom Meteorology Office (UKMO) United States of • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) America • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) • Air Force Weather Agency • American Geophysical Union • Los Alamos National Laboratory • 55th Space Weather Squadron

A.6 ESA’s Expert Groups Overview

Space Geomag- Helio- Iono- Solar Radia- netic Con- spheric spheric Weather tion ditions Weather Weather Prod- Prod- Product Products Products ucts ucts Athens Neutron Monitor Station 2

BIRA-IASB Space Weather Services 3

Catania Astrophysical Observatory 3 (INAF)

Center for Space Radiations (CSR) 9

Centre de Données de la Physique des 2 Plasmas (CDPP)

Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS) 12

Department Radiation Biology (DLR- 4 IAM)

Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) 5 2

Helmholtz-centre Potsdam (GFZ) 7 4

Hosted by the SWE Data Centre 1 3

Institute of 4D-Technologies (FHNW) 1

ESPI Report 68 103 February 2019

Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction 13 Center (IMPC)

Kanzelhöhe Observatory (KSO) 4

Mullard Space Science Laboratory 2 (UCL)

National Observatory of Athens (NOA) 7

Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA) 9

Paul Buehler 5

RAL Space (STFC) 2

Research Center for Astronomy and 1 Applied Mathematics (RCAAM)

Seibersdorf Laboratories 1

Solar Influences Data analysis Center 1 17 (SIDC)

Space Research Centre (SRC) 12

Space Research Laboratory, Depart- ment of Physics and Astronomy, Uni- 3 versity of Turku

Swedish Institute of Space Physics 1 (IRF)

Technical University of Denmark 1 (DTU)

Tromsø Geophysical Observatory 9 (TGO)

UK Met Office (MET) 8

Universidad de Alcalá (UAH) 8

University of Graz (UNIGRAZ), Insti- 2 tute of Physics

ESPI Report 68 104 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

A.7 SWE Projects in EU Framework Pro- grammes (FP7 and H2020)

ESPI Report 68 105 February 2019

en-

g ca-

cili-

wide fore-

case case scenar-

entry zone situations.

spanning 10 years of data from

mission

resolution and methods of data ac-

spacecraft

as as well as a geographical map indicating the

provide a risk assessment, worst

" " call topic, POPDAT's objective is to add value to

ly available inventory of is results accessible via the

ective of ATMOP is to develop a thermosphere model able

a plasma physics data repository

Project Objective Project cess. Acess. public tate the development of new predictive models for spacecrafts. implementation of computations methods regarding solar high nity with new insight on wave processes in the ionosphere EURISGIC to aims Aimed at making better use of current data developedand databases in terms of detail, time SOTERIA website and European Space Weather Portal SEPServer is a data exploration project aimed at providing access to the latest observations and tools on SEP and EM emission events for the scientific community. SEPServer intends to fa Additionally, an online catalogue is provided the SEPServerweb- site The objective of the HESPE project is to provide tools and products for the solar physics community through the formulation and ergy data Funded through the 2010 "Exploitation of space science and exploration data existing ionosphere mission data, providing the scientific commu- ECLAT intends to deliver novel tools and a database for space scientists through an upgrade to ESA's Cluster Active Archive (CAA) - the ESA Cluster multi ios, and a demonstration of GIC forecasting capabilities, regarding the impacts of Geomagnetically Induced Currents on European electrical power networks. Produced will be a European cast tool prototype, occurrence of rapid geomagnetic variation The obj to provide reliable thermospheric air drag calculations for satellite orbit tracking, track loss, collisions, and re The model will feature operational forecasting and nowcastin pabilities

Project Project Total Cost Total 1.561.175,40 5.161.288,00 2.484.125,80 2.213.164,12 1.712.528,20 2.045.723,40 2.217.243,16

Project EC EC Project Contribu- tion 1.056.184,00 3.922.966,00 1.932.172,70 1.569.808,00 1.374.209,00 1.577.144,50 1.563.980,36

Space Weather Projects Within FP7 Within Projects Weather Space

ents and

oriented

TERrestrial

Project Title Project Related Electromagnetic ploration) EURISGIC (European Risk SOTERIA (SOlar Investigations and Archives) SEPServer (Data Services and Analysis forTools Solar Energetic Particle Ev Emissions) HESPE (High Energy Solar Physics Data in Europ POPDAT (Problem Processing and Database Creation for Ionosphere Ex- ECLAT (European Cluster As- similation Technology) from Geomagnetically In- duced Currents) ATMOP (Advanced Thermo- sphere Modelling for Orbit Prediction)

- - - -

- -

01 01

03 03 03 03 1 1

------

2.1

2007

Project Re- Project search Theme search SPA.2010.2.1 exploration data SPA.2010.2.1 Security of space Space Science SPA Exploitation of space science and exploration data Exploitation of space science and SPA.2010.2.1 Exploitation of space science and exploration data Exploitation of space science and exploration data SPA.2010.2.1 assets from space weather events SPA.2010.2.3 Security of space assets from space weather events SPA.2010.2.3

Year 2009 2007 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

ESPI Report 68 106 February 2019

European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

eric

time,

real

densityfoil

energypar-

energy electron

cast cast of the high

developing sufficient radiation

Project Objective Project

pacecraft. SEP events and high

se issues, developing relevant models and

al process, and the development of methods and

rtners, contributing both expertise and geograph-

time (<3 hours) fore

physic

real

within within the region. Already developed under the is project a proposed as an alternative for shielding, and a high with project new stations, improving automatic detection and pean Space Weather Alert system system. will This provide It is the intention of the SPACECAST project to develop Euro- pean modelling and forecasting capabilities to protect space vehicles and manned s ticles in the electron radiation belt are the focus of the project, poses the highest risk to manned and unmanned spacecraft near radiation belt available online SIDER is a project aimed at shielding technology for satellite components. A nanomaterial is is also under consideration PLASMON aims to improve our understanding of plasmasph dynamics and its influence on radiation belts. Three ground based measurements networks had been extended under this analysis algorithms. PLASMON involves European and wider international pa ical utilisation The COMESEP project is designed to build an operational Euro- alerts and forecasters in an intelligible format in near aimed at protecting against and mitigating the impacts of harmful space weather events Both the development of an integratedframework for mathe- matical software for linkage between differentphysics and processes occurring simultaneously or in cascade within specific regions, is a core issue to solve for the basis of SWE forecasting. SWIFF aims to address the algorithms, as well as providing an integrated software infrastructure for SWE forecasting

tal Cost tal

Project To- Project

2.539.991,31 1.440.726,20 2.626.262,80 2.518.021,40 1.991.474,08

Project EC EC Project

Contribution 1.965.071,25 1.067.329,00 1.972.049,75 1.798.718,00 1.559.005,56

a crit-

based

energy particles

Project Title Project

assimilative modelling of

ical ical contribution to Radiation Belt andtions Solar Energetic Parti- SPACECAST (Protecting space assets from high by developing European dynamic modelling and forecasting capabilities) SIDER (Radiation Shielding of Composite Space Enclosures) PLASMON (A new, ground data the Earth's plasmasphere modelling for Space Weather purposes) COMESEP (COronal Mass Ejec- cles: forecasting the space weather impact) SWIFF (Space Weather Inte- grated Forecasting Framework)

- - - - -

1 1 1 1 1

- - - - -

10.2.3

Theme

Project Research Research Project

weather events SPA.20 sets from space Security of space assets from space weather events SPA.2010.2.3 Security of space assets from space SPA.2010.2.3 Security of space assets from space weather events Security of space as- weather events SPA.2010.2.3 Security of space assets from space weather events SPA.2010.2.3

Year

08/12/2009 2009 2009 2009 2009

ESPI Report 68 107 February 2019

aves,

warning

Earth plasma sys-

based observations,

and unmanned space ex-

tific understanding of the

and ground

unication and navigation system

ators ators in mind. Individual forecasting mod-

situ situ space plasma data bases collected by

FP7 project STORM was to make a system-

Project Objective Project

based observations, to analyse and asses the

Virtual Mission Laboratory

spacecraft monitoring of the Geospace environ- -

multi

increasing usage of existing ESA datamission alongside model-

service is available on the SWACI AFFECTS website, designed with lations and observational data in order to characterise the space envi- tistical model is under development In safeguarding terrestrial telecomm operations from solar , AFFECTS intends to develop an advanced prototype space weather warning system. An operational early GNSS users and service oper els and tools are also developed byAFFECTS, and integrated into the Forecast System Ionosphere (FSI) the eHeroes project utilises a synergistic approach with models, simu- ronment and evaluate its impact on manned ploration. The project aims to combine different datasets from robotic explorations with current7past space and other novel data, to achieve improved exploitation of scientific data The SHOCK project aims to progress scien fundamental processes occurring within the Sun tem ling and kinetic simulation. The project has produced a prototype web tool visualisation of the MAARBLE utilises ment, alongside ground physical processes leading to the radiation belt particle energisation and Providedloss. by the project is a database of propertiesof w made available to the scientific community. Using this database, a sta- The main objective of the atic investigation of the in ESA’s missions launched in the solar system, as well as of data from other relevant satellite data bases

tal Cost tal

Project To- Project

2.550.245,00 2.523.910,56 2.602.739,60 2.845.504,37 2.655.900,00

Project EC EC Project

Contribution

1.999.893,00 1.999.720,85 1.998.104,00 1.995.042,90 1.998.200,00

ation and RO-

Project Title Project

For For Ensuring Communications AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast Through Space) eHEROES (Environment for Human Explor botic Experimentation in Space) SHOCK (Solar and Helio- spheric Collisionless Kinetics: Enabling Data Analysis of the Sun to Earth Plasma System with Kinetic Modelling) MAARBLE (Monitoring, Ana- lyzing and Assessing Radia- tion Belt Loss and Energiza- tion) STORM

01 01 01 01

- - -

space

SPA.2010.2.3

Theme

SPA.2011.2.1 SPA.2011.2.1 SPA.2011.2.1

- - -

Project Research Research Project

from from space weather Security of space assets events Exploitation of space science and exploration data Exploitation of science and exploration data Exploitation of space science and exploration data Key technologies enabling observations in and from space SPA.2012.2.1

Year 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011

ESPI Report 68 108 February 2019

European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

of an

wavelength

on with

ordinated with

mode, multi

xploitation of European in-

tion, and radiation

ionospheric delays and errors caused

a crucial natural factor for effective cli-

based solar telescopes, co

Project Objective Project

The project will combine datasets to build a continuous

CHROMA scientists led numerous successful campaigns to

art numerical simulations to deduce the structure and evo-

el solar spectral irradiance record from 1979 onwards

mitigate their effects on satellites by developingbetter miti-

the

based facilities. This campaign data, and other data, consisting of

CHROMA project was a dedicated multi

The The mission of the SR2S is project to demonstrate the feasibility enhancing the scientific discipline and the e lution of the flare chromosphere, and understand theby mechanisms It is the aim of the SOLID project to provide a comprehensive analysis of solar irradiance variations mate modelling. and high lev active magnetic shielding technology to protect astronauts from radiation in the space environment by using superconductive technology The HELCATS strategy is to coordinate a range of observational and modelling studies of heliospheric phenomena to provide a foundation for vestment in the hardware involved. It is also a benchmark in the provision of facilities to understand the nature and developmentof solar transients in the heliosphere The F study of solar flares as observed in the lower solar atmosphere, or chromosphere. F observed flares from ground space flare images and spectroscopy, were analysed in combinati state which energy is transported through the solar atmosphere in a flare, and dissipated in the form of heat, ionisa The goal of the SPACESTORM project was to model space weather events and gation guidelines, forecasting, and by experimental testing of new materials and methodologies to reduce satellite vulnerability MISW will research, develop and apply new solutions to compensate for ionospheric effects on GNSS. Measurements of actual extreme events will allow realistic estimates of the by scintillation Source: Research Executive Agency

tal Cost tal

Project To- Project

3.168.901,60 2.579.598,40 2.774.567,84 2.811.687,60 2.544.144,52 2.882.063,80

Project EC EC Project

Contribution

2.499.833,15 1.994.373,60 1.995.853,44 2.204.174,50 1.981.301,49 1.968.231,00 43.993.366,05

Project Title Project

CHROMA (Flare Chro-

Cataloguing, Analysis SOLID SOLID (First European Comprehensive SOLar Irradiance Data exploitation) SR2S (Space Radiation Superconductive Shield) HELCATS (Heliospheric and Techniques Service) F mospheres: Observa- tions, Models and Ar- chives) SPACESTORM (Modelling space weather events and mitigating their effects on satellites) MISW (Mitigation of space weather threats to GNSS services)

- -

01 01

- -

01 02 01 01

- - - -

Research Research

A.2013.2.1

Theme

weather events weather events

SPA.2013.2.1 SP

- -

Project

Key technologies for in science and exploration Key technologies enabling observations in and from space SPA.2012.2.1 space activities SPA.2012.2.2 Exploitation of space data Exploitation of space science and exploration data Space SPA.2013.2.3 Space SPA.2013.2.3

Year 2012 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 Total

ESPI Report 68 109 February 2019

thermo-

pace

ionospheric be-

nitoring and forecast-

se techniques in close

energy solar particle events

weather mo

recasting tools

bjective

pheric disturbances

Project Project

concepts, whilst additionally advancing the knowledge of the

based and empirical models; exploiting new geomagnetic; and im-

PROGRESS to aims combine the individual strengths of current groups service prototype platform to monitor and predict the FLARECAST offers a flare prediction system with the objective of collaboration with operators of these technologies n/a working in the field of space weather modelling in order to accurately predict the occurrence and severity of space weather events through developing a comprehensive set of fo The overall aim of the IPS project is to “design, develop and operate a haviour and the potential effects on the performances of GNSS based applications.” It is in this sense that the IPS project is geared as a service towards stable performance for user bases of whom are vulnerable to GNSS disruptions from ionos providing accurate and reliable space ing capabilities. HESPERIA aims to produce two novel forecasting tools based upon proven physical mechanisms which lead into high (SEPs) by exploiting novel datasets. The project plans to design new viable Travelling Ionospheric Disturb- ances (TID) impact mitigation strategies for the technologies affected by and, TIDs to validate the addedvalue of the SWAMI aims at “developing improved neutral atmosphere and sphere models; make a leapmajor forward by combining these physics prove the forecast of the activity indices” projectThis aims at establishing a fundamental and appliedresearch program via the setup of a new “virtual modelling lab” which will open the path towards a change of paradigm in the modelling of S Weather impact Source: Research Executive Agency

tal Costs tal

Project To- Project

n/a 2.359.235,00 n/a 2.416.651,25 1.208.956,25 1.579.000,00 1.198.363,75 1.262.763,75

Maxi-

Amount

Proj

mum Grant Grant mum

9,000,000,00 2.358.230,50 669.000,00 2.416.651,25 1.101.456,25 1.579.000,00 1.198.363,75 1.262.763,75 19.585.465,50

Space Weather Projects within Horizon 2020 Horizon within Projects Weather Space

avelling

Project

PROGRESS (Prediction FLARECAST (Flare Like- ances Effects) n/a of Geospace Radiation Environment and solar wind parameters) IPS lihood and Region Eruption Forecasting) HESPERIA (High En- ergy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) TechTIDE (Warning and Mitigation Technol- ogies for Tr Ionospheric Disturb- SWAMI (Space Weather Atmosphere Model and Indices) ESC2RAD (Enabling Smart Computations to study space RADiation effects)

2019

GNSS

------

SEC

–

2017 2017 2017

2014 2014 2014

- - -

5 5 5

1 1 1

Theme

- - -

SPACE

Project Research Research Project

Space Weather

Protection ofProtection European Other Actions Space Weather assets assets in and from space - PROTEC Evolution, Mission and Services related ac- R&D tivities COMPET Space Weather COMPET Space Weather COMPET Space Weather PROTEC Space Weather PROTEC Space Weather SU

Year

2019 2014 2015 2014 2014 2017 2017 2017 Total

ESPI Report 68 110 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

AGREES that the Agency’s activities in the operational field must conform to the following principles: A.8 ESA and Opera- 1. “As regards the pre-operational systems which the Member States entrust to it for tional Services execution, the Agency will have full responsibility for design, development and exploitation. It will exercise this responsi- ESA Convention bility in consultation with potential users, (approved on 30 May 1975) particularly in cases where the development of prototypes is considered to be the Article V.2 best way of advancing the associated technology and facilitating the transition In the area of space applications the Agency to the operational phase. may, should the occasion arise, carry out operational activities under conditions to be de- 2. As regards operational systems: fined by the Council by a majority of all Mem- ber States. When so doing the Agency shall: a: In the fields where organized users do not exist, the Agency will encourage the a. place at the disposal of the operating potential users of operational systems to agencies concerned such of its own facili- take over the management of these sys- ties as may be useful to them; tems and to organize their exploitation. In accordance with the Council’s instructions, b. ensure as required, on behalf of the it will furnish them with all the technical operating agencies concerned, the and institutional assistance they may re- launching, placing in orbit and control quest to this end, including the making of operational application satellites; available of facilities. c. carry out any other activity requested b. In the fields where organized users ex- by users and approved by the Council. ist, the Agency will not undertake tasks unless so requested by them Resolution on the Agency and its 3. Subject to any other activity requested by users and approved by the Council, the Operational Systems<< Agency will limit its operational activities (adopted on 15 February 1977) to the launching, placing in orbit, and orbital control of satellites or space transport The Council, meeting at ministerial level, systems, and to the provision of technical assistance, in the design and exploitation CONSIDERING that, in addition to its task of of systems, either to the users themselves developing space technology, the European or to a body designated by them. Space Agency also has the mission, under the Convention for the establishment of a Euro- The Agency will undertake operational ac- pean Space Agency, of giving support for the tivities only if it can do so without interfer- development and management of European ing with the effective discharge of the prin- operational space systems, cipal tasks for which it has been established. RECOGNISING that the execution of operational activities will enable the Agency to ex- 4. The Agency will abstain from encroaching ploit its capabilities and capital investments to upon the acknowledged attributions of the the full and to achieve a better regulation of user organisations. The principles set out the workloads of the Agency and of industry, in Article VII of the ESA Convention will be as well as to arrive at a better definition of its equally applicable to operational activities subsequent programmes in the light of the re- entrusted to the Agency quirements of space-systems users, 5. The interfaces between the Agency and CONSIDERING the importance, in the overall the users will be defined precisely and will European economic context, of avoiding mul- be the subject of appropriate arrange- tiplication of space-related capabilities and ments. capital investments, 6. The Agency’s internal costs incurred JUDGING IT DESIRABLE, in consequence, to through the execution of its operational adopt a positive attitude in relation to the activities will be limited as far as possible. management of operational systems, To this end a charging policy relating to these costs will be defined.

ESPI Report 68 111 February 2019

7. The Agency’s expenditure in connection with these activities will be charged to the A.9 Long-Term Sus- users in accordance with terms to be determined in the arrangements referred to tainability Guide- above. The Council will determine those cases in which the Agency may continue during a limited period to bear certain ex- lines of Relevance penditure, notably in order to promote the constitution and starting up of user to SWE groups; in doing so the Agency will make every effort to reduce the amount of such expenditure. Guideline 16. Share opera- 8. No financial involvement shall arise for any tional space weather data Member State from operational activities without the specific approval of that Mem- and forecasts ber State. 16.1 States and international intergovernmen- 9. The Agency will set up a suitable internal tal organizations should support and promote management and accounting structure to the collection, archiving, sharing, intercalibra- permit clear identification and correct tion, long-term continuity and dissemination charging of activities in the operational of critical space weather data and space sector. weather model outputs and forecasts, where appropriate in real time, as a means of en- 10. The Agency will take care to remain within hancing the long-term sustainability of outer the framework of the privileges and im- space activities. munities granted to it by the Member States in accordance with the provisions of 16.2 States should be encouraged to monitor Article 7.2 of Annex I of the ESA Conven- space weather continuously and to share data tion. and information with the aim of establishing an international space weather database net- 11. The Agency will define and carry out a pol- work. icy enabling the Member States that have contributed to the development of a space 16.3 States and international intergovernmen- programme to be equitably associated tal organizations should support the identifica- with the follow-up operational activities tion of data sets critical for space weather ser- resulting from the programme in question, vices and research and should consider adopt- taking due account of any commercial con- ing policies for the free and unrestricted shar- straints. ing of critical space weather data from their space- and ground-based assets. All govern- 12. The Agency will recommend to Member mental, civilian and commercial space weather States all measures which allow harmoni- data owners are urged to allow free and unre- sation of the policies of user administra- stricted access to and archival of such data for tions or entities in their countries with the mutual benefit. Agency’s policy defined in the preceding paragraph. 16.4 States and international intergovernmental organizations should also consider sharing The Council will take the necessary steps for real-time and near-real-time critical space the implementation of the above principles, weather data and data products in a common which it will review from time to time in the format, promote and adopt common access light of experience gained. protocols for their critical space weather data and data products, and promote the interoperability of space weather data portals, thus promoting ease of data access for users and researchers. The real-time sharing of these data could provide a valuable experience for sharing in real time other kinds of data relevant to the long-term sustainability of outer space activities. 16.5 States and international intergovernmental organizations should further undertake a coordinated approach to maintaining the long- term continuity of space weather observations and identifying and filling key measurement gaps, so as to meet critical needs for space weather information and/or data.

ESPI Report 68 112 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

16.6 States and international intergovernmen- World Meteorological Organization and the In- tal organizations should identify high-priority ternational Space Environment Service. needs for space weather models, space 17.2 States and international intergovernmen- weather model outputs and space weather tal organizations should support and promote forecasts and adopt policies for free and unre- cooperation and coordination on ground- and stricted sharing of space weather model out- space-based space weather observations, puts and forecasts. All governmental, civilian forecast modelling, satellite anomalies and re- and commercial space weather model devel- porting of space weather effects in order to opers and forecast providers are urged to al- safeguard space activities. Practical measures low free and unrestricted access to and ar- in this regard could include: chival of space weather model outputs and forecasts for mutual benefit, which will pro- (a) Incorporating current and forecast space mote research and development in this do- weather thresholds into space launch criteria; main. (b) Encouraging satellite operators to cooper- 16.7 States and international intergovernmen- ate with space weather service providers to tal organizations should also encourage their identify the information that would be most space weather service providers to: useful to mitigate anomalies and to derive recommended specific guidelines for on-orbit op- (a) Undertake comparisons of space weather erations. For example, if the radiation environ- model and forecast outputs with the goal of ment is hazardous, this might include actions improved model performance and forecast ac- to delay the uploading of software, implemen- curacy; tation of manoeuvres etc.; (b) Openly share and disseminate historical (c) Encouraging the collection, collation and and future critical space weather model out- sharing of information relating to ground- and puts and forecast products in a common for- space-based space weather-related impacts mat; and system anomalies, including spacecraft (c) Adopt common access protocols for their anomalies; space weather model outputs and forecast (d) Encouraging the use of a common format products to the extent possible, to promote for reporting space weather information. In re- their ease of use by users and researchers, in- lation to the reporting of spacecraft anomalies, cluding through interoperability of space satellite operators are encouraged to take note weather portals; of the template proposed by the Coordination (d) Undertake coordinated dissemination of Group for Meteorological Satellites; space weather forecasts among space weather (e) Encouraging policies promoting the sharing service providers and to operational end users. of satellite anomaly data related to space weather-induced effects; Guideline 17. Develop space (f) Encouraging training on and knowledge weather models and tools and transfer relating to the use of space weather data, taking into account the participation of collect established practices on countries with emerging space capabilities. the mitigation of space 17.3 It is acknowledged that some data may weather effects be subject to legal restrictions and/or measures for the protection of proprietary or 17.1 States and international intergovernmen- confidential information, in accordance with tal organizations should undertake a coordi- national legislation, multilateral commitments, nated approach to identifying and filling gaps non-proliferation norms and international law. in research and operational models and forecasting tools required to meet the needs of the 17.4 States and international intergovernmen- scientific community and of the providers and tal organizations should work towards the de- users of space weather information services. velopment of international standards and the Where necessary, this should include coordi- collection of established practices applicable nated efforts to support and promote research for the mitigation of space weather effects in and development to further advance space satellite design. This could include sharing of weather models and forecasting tools, incor- information on design practices, guidelines porating the effects of the changing solar en- and lessons learned relating to mitigation of vironment and evolving terrestrial magnetic the effects of space weather on operational field as appropriate, including within the con- space systems, as well as documentation and text of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of reports relating to space weather user needs, Outer Space and its subcommittees, as well as measurement requirements, gap analyses, in collaboration with other entities such as the cost-benefit analyses and related space weather assessments.

ESPI Report 68 113 February 2019

17.5 States should encourage entities under 17.6 International intergovernmental organi- their jurisdiction and/or control to: zations should also promote such measures among their member States. (a) Incorporate in satellite designs the capability to recover from a debilitating space 17.7 States should undertake an assessment weather effect, such as by including a safe of the risk and socioeconomic impacts of ad- mode; verse space weather effects on the technological systems in their respective countries. The (b) Incorporate space weather effects into sat- results from such studies should be published ellite designs and mission planning for end-of- and made available to all States and used to life disposal in order to ensure that the space- inform decision-making relating to the long- craft either reach their intended graveyard or- term sustainability of outer space activities, bit or de-orbit appropriately, in accordance particularly with regard to mitigating the ad- with the Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of verse impacts of space weather on operational the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer space systems. Space. This should include appropriate margin analysis.

A.10 List of External Contributors to the Re- search

Name Position Organisation Alexi Glover Space Situational Programme Of- European Space Agency (ESA) fice Andrej Rozkov Project Officer European Commission /Research Executive Agency Andrew Monham Spacecraft Operations Manager European Organisation fort the Ex- ploitation of Meteorological Stellites (EUMETSAT) Brigit Blasch Deputy Head of Unit European Commission/Research Executive Agency (REA) Elisabeth Krausmann Scientific Officer European Commission / Joint Re- search Centre (JRC) Eric Guyader Administrator – Galileo Pro- European Commission gramme Ewa Oney Policy Officer European Commission Harm Greidanus Scientist European Commission/ Joint Re- search Centre (JRC) Juha-Pekka Luntama Space Weather Manager European Space agency (ESA) Masha Kutseova Panel on Space Weather Chair Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Mike Hapgood Head of the Space Environment Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Group (RAL) Mike Williams Head of Flight Operations European Organisation fort the Ex- ploitation of Meteorological Stellites (EUMETSAT) Paul Counet Head of Strategy and Interna- European Organisation fort the Ex- tional Relations ploitation of Meteorological Stellites (EUMETSAT)

ESPI Report 68 114 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

List of Acronyms

Acronym Explanation ACE Advance Composition Explorer AFWA Air Force Weather Agency (now the 557th Weather Wing) ANC Air Navigation Commission ASWA American Space Weather Association BIRA-IASB Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy CAeM Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology (WMO) CGMS Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites CMA China Meteorological Administration CME Coronal Mass Ejection CNES French Space Agency COMPET Competitiveness of the European Space Sector COSPAR Committee on Space Research COST European Cooperation in Science and Technology COST Cooperation on Science and Technology D3S Distributed SWE Sensor System (SSA) DLR German Aerospace Center DoD Department of Defence (U.S.) DRAO Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory DRM Disaster Risk Management DSCVR Deep Space Climate Observatory DSM Design Study Methodology EC European Commission ECI European Critical Infrastructure EISCAT European Incoherent SCATer Scientific Association EO Earth Observation ESA European Space Agency ESC Expert Service Centre ESPI European Space Policy Institute ESTEC European Space Research and Technology Centre EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FERC Federal Energy Regulation Commission

ESPI Report 68 115 February 2019

Acronym Explanation FLARECAST Flare Likelihood And Region Eruption foreCASTing FP7 7th Framework Programme on Research and Innovation GCR Galactic Cosmic Rays GDP Gross Domestic Product GEO Group on Earth Observation GEOS Global Earth Observation Systems GIC Geomagnetically Induced Current GMDN Global Muon Detector Network GNSS Global Navigation Satellite System GONG Global Oscillation Network Group GPS Global Positioning System H2020 Horizon 2020 HESPERIA High Energy Solar Particle Events forecasting and Analysis I-SWAT International Space Weather Action Teams IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation ICG International Committee on Global Navigation Satellite Systems ICT Information and Communication Technologies IGY International Geophysical Year IHY International Heliophysical Year IMPC Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Centre (DLR) INTERMAGNET International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network IPR Intellectual Property Rights ISES International Space Environment Service ISS International Space Station ISWI International Space Weather Initiative IT Information Technology ITU International Telecommunications Union JRC Joint Research Centre (EC) L1 & L5 Langarian Points of the Earth-Sun System LEO Low Earth Orbit LTSSA Long-Term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities METP (ICAO) Meteorological Panel MOSWOC UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre NASA National Aeronautical and Space Administration NEO Near Earth Object NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NMDB Real-Time Neutron Monitor Database NOAA National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration

ESPI Report 68 116 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

Acronym Explanation NOAA-CSWIG Commercial Space Weather Interest Group NRC National Research Council PNT Position, Navigation and Timing PSP Pipe-to-Soil Potential difference PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers RAE Royal Academy of Engineering RAL Rutherford Appleton Laboratory REA Research Executive Agency (EC) RWC Regional Warning Centres SCD Spacecraft Design SCO Spacecraft Operation SDC Space Weather Data Centre SDG(s) Sustainable Development Goal(s) SEP Solar Energetic Particles SEU Single Event Upset SOHO Solar and Hemispheric Observatory SSA Space Situational Awareness SSA SSCC SSA Space Weather Coordination Centre SST Space Surveillance Tracking STEREO Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory STFC Science and Technology Facilities Council SuperDARN Super Dual Auroral Radar Network SWAMI Space Weather Atmosphere Model and Indices SWAD Space Weather Awareness Dialogue SWE Space Weather SWPC Space Weather Prediction Centre (NOAA) SWWT Space Weather Working Team TEC Total Electron Content TGO Tromsø Geophysical Observatory UIP User Interface Platform UN United Nations UN PSA United Nations Programme on Space Activities UN STSC United Nations Scientific and Technical Subcommittee UNCOPUOS United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space UNISPACE+50 50th anniversary of the first United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space UNOOSA United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs URSI International Union of Radio Science US SEC United States Space Environment Centre USAF United States Air Force

ESPI Report 68 117 February 2019

Acronym Explanation USGS United States Geological Survey UV Ultraviolet WG Working Group WHO World Health Organisation WIGOS WMO Integrated Global Observing System WIS World Meteorological Organisation Information System WMO World Meteorological Organisation

ESPI Report 68 118 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects

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ESPI Report 68 129 February 2019

About ESPI

The European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) is ESPI fulfils its objectives through various mul- an association ruled by Austrian Law, based in tidisciplinary research activities leading to the Vienna, funded at its inception (2003) by the publication of books, reports, papers, articles, Austrian Space Agency and ESA, and now sup- executive briefs, proceedings and position pa- ported by 17 members that include European pers, and to the organisation of conferences national space agencies, the European Com- and events including the annual ESPI Autumn mission, and main European space services Conference. Located in the heart of Vienna, companies and manufacturers. the Institute has developed a privileged relationship with the United Nations Office for The Institute provides decision-makers with Outer Space Affairs and with a network of re- an informed view on mid-to-long-term issues searchers and experts in Europe and across relevant to Europe’s space activities. In this the globe. context, ESPI acts as an independent platform for developing positions and strategies. ESPI More information on ESPI is available on our website: www.espi.or.at

About the Authors

This report was prepared with contributions Publicly available data and information were from the following ESPI researchers: completed with stakeholders and expert interviews. The list of interviewees is provided in • Marco Aliberti, Senior Research Fellow Annex to this report. • Leyton Wells, Research Intern ESPI is grateful to the many stakeholders that The study was conducted under the supervi- accepted to be interviewed and provided sub- sion of Jean-Jacques Tortora, Director of ESPI, stantial contributions for this report. and the coordination of Sebastien Moranta, Coordinator of ESPI Studies.

ESPI Report 68 130 February 2019

Mission Statement of ESPI

The European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) provides decision-makers with an informed view on mid- to long-term issues relevant to Europe’s space activities. In this context, ESPI acts as an independent platform for developing positions and strategies.