European Space Weather Services: Status and Prospects Report 68 February 2019 Marco Aliberti Leyton Wells Short title: ESPI Report 68 ISSN: 2218-0931 (print), 2076-6688 (online) Published in February 2019 Editor and publisher: European Space Policy Institute, ESPI Schwarzenbergplatz 6 • 1030 Vienna • Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel. +43 1 7181118-0; Fax -99 Rights reserved – No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “Source: ESPI Report 68; February 2019. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. ESPI is not responsible for any losses, injury or damage caused to any person or property (including under contract, by negligence, product liability or otherwise) whether they may be direct or indirect, special, incidental or consequential, resulting from the information contained in this publication. Design: Panthera.cc ESPI Report 68 2 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects Table of Contents 1. Introduction 5 1.1 Background and Rationales 5 1.2 Objectives and Scope 6 1.3 Research Methodology 7 1.4 Structure of the Study 7 2. Outlining Space Weather Services 8 2.1 Defining Space Weather 8 2.1.1 SWE Causes 8 2.1.2 SWE Events 9 2.1.3 SWE Impact 10 2.2 Defining Space Weather Services 12 2.2.1 SWE Service Categories 13 2.2.2 Stakes for the delivery of operational services 14 2.3 SWE Service Enablers 15 2.3.1 Technological Enablers 15 2.3.2 Market Enablers 20 2.3.3 Organisational Enablers 24 3. European and International Efforts in SWE 25 3.1 The European Architecture for SWE Services 25 3.1.1 Background: From National to Pan-European Efforts 25 3.1.2 European Space Agency 27 3.1.3 European Union 33 3.1.4 EUMETSAT 40 3.2 International Framework for SWE Services 42 3.2.1 International Space Environment Service (ISES) 42 3.2.2 United Nations 43 3.2.3 International Organisations 46 3.2.4 Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS) 50 3.2.5 International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) 50 3.2.6 Research and Education: COSPAR and ILWS 51 3.2.7 Other International Service Providers 52 3.3 Summary: Status of Supply in the European and International Context 54 3.3.1 Europe 54 3.3.2 International Context 54 4. Towards Operational SWE Services in Europe 56 4.1 Addressing the Technical Gaps 56 4.1.1 Filling Data Gaps 57 4.1.2. Improving Software Maturity 59 4.1.3 Advancing Product and Service Maturity 61 4.2 Addressing Demand/Market Requirements 63 4.2.1 Fortifying Relations with End-Users 63 4.2.2 Identifying Customers 65 4.3 Defining an Appropriate Organisational Setting 67 4.3.1 Scenarios for Operational SWE Services 69 4.3.2 Scenarios Assessment 74 4.4 The Bottom Line: Enhancing Awareness and Preparedness 75 4.5 Elements for a European Roadmap 76 ESPI Report 68 3 February 2019 5. Findings and Recommendations 78 Annexes 81 A.1 Explanation of Terms 81 A.2 NOAA Space Weather Scales 83 A.3 Space Weather Service Demand 85 A.4 Selected National SWE Weather Activities in Europe 98 A.5 Selected Worldwide Institutions Involved in SWE 101 A.6 ESA’s Expert Groups Overview 103 A.7 SWE Projects in EU Framework Programmes (FP7 and H2020) 105 A.8 ESA and Operational Services 111 A.9 Long-Term Sustainability Guidelines of Relevance to SWE 112 A.10 List of External Contributors to the Research 114 List of Acronyms 115 References 119 About ESPI 130 About the Authors 130 ESPI Report 68 4 February 2019 European Weather Services: Status and Prospects 1. Introduction and organisational basis and, crucially, has a well-identified user-base. In this sense, it can be called self-sufficient. However, to reach this 1.1 Background and point, considerable research and financial in- vestment is required for an innovation to be- Rationales come a sustainable service. While value adding, sustainable services have The shift in recent years towards the develop- been successfully established in the fields of ment of space-based services marks the con- telecommunications, meteorology and, more vergence of space technologies, science and recently, navigation and Earth observation, research in addressing user needs - be they challenges remain in areas outside these tra- societal or commercial. This shift in the overall ditional domains. A clear case in point is Space practical output of space-related activity is of Weather (SWE) services, a rapidly emerging significance also because of its tangible inter- issue-area that has been identified by all Eu- action with wider society for functional pur- ropean stakeholders as needing more pro-ac- poses. Whilst there is no doubt about the value tive action, and the potential for European au- of the advancements made, and the necessary tonomy. foundations that have been laid down, by space activities since the 1950s, it is only in It should be first highlighted that substantial recent times that the practical utility of the space weather-related observation has al- space sector has rapidly expanded. This ap- ready been gathered in the preceding decades plies not only to the scope of missions and re- and a framework for transforming the subse- search, but also to the technological infra- quent data into functional, value-added ser- structures that are becoming increasingly vices is already envisaged within the current available and accessible for exploitation. One European framework. In addition, at national needs only to glance at the current societal de- level some European countries already provide pendence on the satellite applications sector to operational SWE services for certain sectors grasp how substantial a service space sector (e.g. the commercial airlines, the satellite in- can become in only a few decades, presenting dustry, power grid operators, etc). a multitude of socio-economic benefits. However, from a pan-European perspective, In this vein, the further development and po- space weather remains a rather novel area of tential role of space applications and services action for the different European actors, with has been increasingly iterated in both Europe their envisaged transition to operational ser- and internationally. In the development of a vices necessitating an increasingly integrated service-oriented space sector, however, chal- and networked approach to ensure sustaina- lenges persist in the transition from demon- bility. To become fully operational, space stration to operations. In fact, services can be weather services require a strong engagement seen as step(s) beyond the technical feasibility with user communities to develop prepared- or successful demonstration of a particular ness and responses to space weather risks. In new technological system that fulfils a market addition, it calls for synergies between differ- demand. Essentially, a service is the applica- ent stakeholders on the supply side (in both tion, or functional product, of research and in- the space and non-space domain) as well as novation, and generally has a market or user coordination/cooperation efforts at interna- base. Importantly a service has end-users. A tional level. Indeed, as also stressed by sev- pre-operational service is one that whose eral studies, even though there currently are technological feasibility and capabilities have numerous national space-based and ground- been proven, and a basis for estimating overall based assets that could be used to improve costs has been demonstrated, but whose or- space weather services, these assets are gen- ganisational and institutional grounding has erally not effectively coordinated, or easily not yet been fully finalised. By contrast, an op- available beyond the community that operates erational service is sustainable from a techno- them. Observations are not systematically in- logical standpoint, has a strong institutional ESPI Report 68 5 February 2019 teroperable, shared in near-real time, or doc- umented with metadata that would enable 1.2 Objectives and their most efficient use. In line with this, alt- hough each area of application for space Scope weather services has its own specific require- ments, the increased interconnectivity of all The overarching objective of this study is to stakeholders involved, and coordination ef- provide an in-depth investigation of the possi- forts at national and international policymak- ble future functioning of space weather ser- ing levels, are essential in building a frame- vices in Europe. This ESPI study will more spe- work that would enable a flourishing and sus- cifically: tainable market base. • Assess and characterize the demand con- As a result, when considering the provision of ditions for space weather services by value-adding space weather services, several elaborating on the various services do- questions remain: mains and the user and customer base • How will the space community move from • Assess and characterize the supply condi- the provision of space weather data to the tions of space weather services by elabo- provision of value-adding operational ser- rating on the current European and inter- vices? national architecture for space weather • What are the gaps in the current European • Investigate the required steps to move and international architecture for space from the provision of space weather infor- weather services? mation to the provision of fully fledged • Who should fill these gaps (private busi- and sustainable operational services ness/ public institutions/ international co- • Identify the