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DIIS WORKINGDIIS WORKING PAPER 20PAPER12:07 Growing but not transforming: Fragmented ruling coalitions and economic developments in Uganda Anne Mette Kjær and Mesharch Katusiimeh DIIS Working Paper 2012:07 WORKING PAPER WORKING 1 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 ANNE METTE KJÆR Associate professor Department of Political Science, Aarhus University [email protected] MESHARCH KATUSIIMEH Lecturer in Political Science and Public Administration at Uganda Christian University. DIIS Working Papers make available DIIS researchers’ and DIIS project partners’ work in progress towards proper publishing. They may include important documentation which is not necessarily published elsewhere. DIIS Working Papers are published under the responsibility of the author alone. DIIS Working Papers should not be quoted without the express permission of the author. DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 © The authors and DIIS, Copenhagen 2012 Danish Institute for International Studies, DIIS Strandgade 56, DK-1401 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Cover Design: Carsten Schiøler Layout: Allan Lind Jørgensen Printed in Denmark by Vesterkopi AS ISBN: 978-87-7605-493-9 Price: DKK 25.00 (VAT included) DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge from www.diis.dk 2 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 DIIS WORKING PAPER SUB-SERIES ON ELITES, PRODUCTION AND POVERTY This working paper sub-series includes papers generated in relation to the research programme ‘Elites, Production and Poverty’. This collaborative research programme, launched in 2008, brings together research institutions and universities in Bangladesh, Denmark, Ghana, Mozam- bique, Tanzania and Uganda and is funded by the Danish Consultative Research Committee for Development Research. The Elites programme is coordinated by the Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen, and runs until the end of 2011. Earlier papers in this subseries: Rweyemamu, Dennis: “Strategies for Growth and Poverty Reduction: Has Tanzania’s Second PRSP Influenced implementation?” DIIS Working Paper 2009:13. Kjaer, Anne Mette, and Fred Muhumuza: “The New Poverty Agenda in Uganda” DIIS Work- ing Paper 2009:14. Whitfield, Lindsay: “The new ‘New Powerty Agenda’ in Ghana: what impact?” DIIS Working Paper 2009:15. Webster, Neil, Zarina Rahman Khan, Abu Hossain Muhammad Ahsan, Akhter Hussain and Mahbubur Rahman: “State Elites and the New Poverty Agenda in Bangladesh”. DIIS Work- ing Paper 2009:22. Buur, Lars, with Obede Suarte Baloi: “The Mozambican PRSP Initiative: Moorings, usage and future” . DIIS Working Paper 2009:35. Whitfield, Lindsay: “Developing Technological Capabilities in Agro-Industry: Ghana’s ex- perience with fresh pineapple exports in comparative perspective”. DIIS Working Paper 2010:28. Whitfield, Lindsay: “How countries become rich and reduce poverty: A review of heterodox explanations of economic development”. DIIS Working Paper 2011:13. Whitfield, Lindsay and Ole Therkildsen: “What Drives States to Support the Development of Productive Sectors?”, DIIS Working Paper 2011:15. Buur, Lars and Lindsay Whitfield: “Engaging in productive sector development: Comparisons between Mozambique and Ghana,” DIIS Working Paper 2011:22. Whitfield, Lindsay: “Competitive Clientelism, Easy Financing and Weak Capitalists: The Con- temporary Political Settlement in Ghana”, DIIS Working Paper 2011:27. Whitfield, Lindsay: “Growth without Economic Transformation: Economic Impacts of Gha- na’s Political Settlement”, DIIS Working Paper 2011:28. Whitfield, Lindsay: “Political Challenges to Developing Non-Traditional Exports in Ghana: The Case of Horticulture Exports”, DIIS Working Paper 2011:29. Buur, Lars with Obede Baloi and Carlota Mondlane Tembe: “Mozambique Synthesis Analysis: Between Pockets of Efficiency and Elite Capture,” DIIS Working Paper 2012:01. Kjær, Anne Mette, Fred Muhumuza and Tom Mwebaze: “Coalition-driven initiatives in the Ugandan dairy sector: Elites, conflict, and bargaining”, DIIS Working Paper 2012:02. Kjær, Anne Mette, Fred Muhumuza, Tom Mwebaze, Mesharch Katusiimeh: “The political economy of the fisheries sector in Uganda: ruling elites, implementation costs and industry interests”, DIIS Working Paper 2012:04. Kjær, Anne Mette, Mesharch Katusiimeh, Tom Mwebaze and Fred Muhumuza: “When do rul- ing elites support productive sectors? Explaining policy initiatives in the fisheries and dairy sectors in Uganda”, DIIS Working Paper 2012:05. More information about the research and access to publications can be found on the website www.diis.dk/EPP or via the Q2 barcode 3 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 4 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 CONTENTS Introduction 7 Structural transformation of the economy? 8 The present structure of Uganda’s ruling coalition 11 Historical origins of the fragmentation of the ruling coalition (the Obote-KY crisis, the Amin crisis and the civil war) 13 The ruling coalition in Museveni’s Uganda 16 The bureaucracy 17 The military 19 The party 21 Funding the ruling coalition 24 The business sector 27 Conclusion 29 References 30 5 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 6 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 INTRODUCTION strong opposing factions should be able to decide and implement growth-enhancing There is no way Africans can emancipate them- strategies to promote structural transforma- selves from poverty and backwardness without tion, because there will be no strong faction carrying through an industrial revolution. resisting such strategies. However, this has President Yoweri Museveni (1992: 208) not happened to any significant extent in Uganda. The ruling coalition has been stable, When the National Resistance Movement and there have been no strong excluded fac- (NRM) and its leader, Yoweri Museveni, came tions with enough holding power to seriously to power, they had an explicit agenda of in- challenge the regime. The northern region, dustrializing the economy (Kjær and Muhu- particularly the Acholi region, has been ex- muza, 2009). Improved infrastructure and in- cluded from power and influence, and it is creased production and productivity were the in the Acholi area that the Lord’s Resistance focus. Indeed, Uganda enjoyed a period of Army (LRA), a rebel group, has been active sustained economic growth of about 7 per- and rampaging among the local population. cent annually between 1990 and 2006 (Piron The regime has been criticized for not ad- and Norton, 2004; Kjær and Muhumuza, equately protecting the Acholi population. 2009), made possible by a stable ruling coali- However, with the LRA in Congo at the mo- tion, macro-economic stability, low inflation ment of writing (continuing its assaults on (until recently), and relative peace. Poverty local populations), peace (albeit temporary) declined from 56 percent in 1991 to 25 per- has finally been established in the north, and cent in 20101 However, there has been limited the region has seen a period of growth since structural transformation in terms of a shift 2006. Museveni gained more votes from the from agriculture to industry. A number of region in the 2011 elections than he has ever explanations for this could be put forward, done before (Uganda Electoral Commission, whether institutional, policy-oriented or geo- 2011). graphical (Selassie, 2008; van de Walle, 2001). Other excluded factions are the older None of them, however, explains fully how parties, the DP (the Democratic Party, with Uganda, in spite of an initially highly dedi- its Catholic background) and the UPC (the cated ruling elite, did not succeed in trans- Uganda People’s Congress, former President forming its economy. For example, Uganda Milton Obote’s party with a Protestant lean- is a landlocked country, but so is Zimbabwe, ing), and groups that were previously NRM which is far more industrialized. Similarly, members but now belong to the opposition. while Uganda certainly has weak institutions, Although the main opponent, Dr Besigye, a so did other countries that have succeeded in previous NRM member was perceived as a industrializing (Selassie, 2008). threat, especially in the 2006 elections, his Fo- In this paper, we analyze Uganda’s devel- rum for Democratic Change (FDC) has not opment through a political economy lens that yet been able to seriously challenge the ruling emphasizes the nature of the ruling coali- elite and their hold on power. Paradoxically, tion. In theory, according to Khan (2010), a the ones most capable of threatening the relatively stable ruling coalition without any power and stability of Museveni’s ruling coa- lition are probably former movement mem- 1 According to the World Bank’s development indicators. bers, such as Besigye, or Movement members 7 DIIS WORKING PAPER 2012:07 who are still within the ruling coalition, partly on patronage to win elections and to main- because they also have potential influence tain political support in order to stay in pow- within the military. er. Fifth, this results in a continued lack of The continued lack of effective strategies structural transformation and a perpetually to promote the productive sector may be ex- small indigenous capitalist class. Productive plained by the fact that there have been signif- entrepreneurs have nurtured their interests icant factions within the ruling coalition. The largely through personal and individualized power of lower level factions, excluded fac- ties with the ruling coalition. However, there tions and opposing factions within the NRM are also more formalized government-busi- against the president seems to be increasing, ness relations that may develop an
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