Tees Valley Combined Authority New Tees Crossing
Outline Business Case
24 October 2019 Version 1.0 Issue
Tees Valley Combined Authority 2085-04 ▪ New Tees Crossing ▪ Outline Business Case 24 October 2019 ▪ Version 1.0 ▪ Issue
Document Control
Client: Tees Valley Combined Authority Project Title: New Tees Crossing Job Number: 2085-04 Report Title: Outline Business Case
Date Version Status Author Checked Approved
18/12/2018 0.1 Draft E Roberts J Spruce J Spruce 20/03/2019 0.2 Draft E Roberts J Spruce J Spruce 10/10/2019 0.3 Draft E Roberts J Spruce J Spruce 24/10/2019 1.0 Issue E Roberts J Spruce J Spruce
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Tees Valley Combined Authority 2085-04 ▪ New Tees Crossing ▪ Outline Business Case 24 October 2019 ▪ Version 1.0 ▪ Issue
Contents
Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Overview 3 1.2 Business Case 3 1.3 Document Content and Structure 6 2 The Strategic Case 7 2.1.1 Tees Valley Area Profile 9 2.1.2 Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees Area Profile 17 2.2 Step 2: Identifying Transport Barriers 19 2.2.1 Tees Valley Transport Issues 19 2.2.2 A19 and River Crossing Issues 24 2.3 Step 3: Exploring Options and Strategic Alternatives 38 2.3.1 Objectives 38 2.3.2 Options 39 2.4 Step 4: Exploring Impacts of Interventions 42 2.4.1 Main Impacts 42 2.4.2 Wider Impacts 43 2.4.3 Measures for Success 45 2.5 Step 5: Aligning with Wider Local Plans and Objectives 45 2.5.1 Tees Valley Local Plans 45 2.5.2 River Tees Port Expansion 46 2.5.3 Other Large Scale Developments 47 2.5.4 Middlesbrough Investment Prospectus 49 2.5.5 Stockton-on-Tees Economic Strategy 2017-2032 50 2.5.6 Other Transport Proposals 51 2.6 Step 6: Considering Wider Evidence and Stakeholder Views 53 2.6.1 Stakeholder Views 53 2.6.2 Wider Policy Alignment 55 3 The Economic Case 63 3.1 Options Appraised 63 3.2 Methodology and Assumptions 63 3.3 Present Value of Costs 65
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3.3.1 Investment Costs 65 3.3.2 Operational and Maintenance Costs 66 3.4 Present Value of Benefits 67 3.4.1 Scheme Transport User Benefits 67 3.4.2 Construction and Maintenance Delays 67 3.4.3 Safety Benefits 68 3.4.4 Reliability Benefits 70 3.4.5 Wider Benefits 71 3.5 Environmental Impacts 72 3.5.1 Noise 72 3.5.2 Air Quality 74 3.5.3 Greenhouse Gases 74 3.5.4 Landscape 75 3.5.5 Townscape 76 3.5.6 Biodiversity 76 3.5.7 Historic Environment 77 3.5.8 Water Environment 77 3.6 Social Distributional Impacts 78 3.7 Value for Money 80 3.7.1 Benefit : Cost Ratio 80 3.8 Sensitivity Tests 82 3.9 Appraisal Summary Table 82 4 The Financial Case 83 4.1 Costs 83 4.1.1 Scheme Preparation and Construction 83 4.1.2 Maintenance Costs 85 4.2 Risk Allowance 85 4.3 Spend Profile 86 4.4 Budgets/Funding Cover 86 5 The Commercial Case 89 5.1 Commercial Viability 89 5.2 Output-based Specification 89 5.3 Procurement Strategy 90 5.3.1 Preferred Procurement Procedure 91 5.3.2 Portrack Relief Road 92
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5.4 Payment and Charging Mechanisms 92 5.5 Risk Allocation and Transfer 92 5.6 Contract Length and Management 94 5.7 Human Resources Issues 94 6 The Management Case 95 6.1 Evidence of Similar Projects 95 6.2 Project Dependencies 96 6.3 Governance, Organisational Structure and Roles 97 6.4 Project Plan 99 6.5 Assurance and Approvals Plan 100 6.6 Communications and Stakeholder Management 102 6.7 Programme/Project Reporting 102 6.8 Risk Management Strategy 103 6.9 Benefits Realisation Plan 107 6.10 Monitoring and Evaluation Plan 111 7 Summary 113
Appendices
Appendix A: Options Assessment Report Appendix B: Public Consultation Report Appendix C: Appraisal Specification Report Appendix D: Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report Appendix E: Environmental Assessment Report Appendix F: TAG Supporting Workbooks and Worksheets Appendix G: Appraisal Summary Tables Appendix H: Options Estimate Report Appendix I: Procurement Strategy Appendix J: Project Management Plan Appendix K: Project Plan Appendix L: Stakeholder Engagement and Public Consultation Strategy Appendix M: Risk Management Plan Appendix N: Risk Register Appendix O: Benefits Realisation Plan Appendix P: Monitoring and Evaluation Plan
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Executive Summary
This document and its supporting appendices comprise the Outline Business Case for a new strategic road crossing of the River Tees, in the approximate location of the existing A19 Tees Viaduct.
As this submission clearly demonstrates, there is a strong and robust case for investment in a New Tees Crossing, therefore it is recommended that the scheme is prioritised for funding so that the many benefits that it will deliver across the Tees Valley City Region can be realised as soon as possible. In particular, the scheme will:
• Relieve the existing A19/A66 bottleneck, enhancing the reliability of people’s journeys across the Tees Valley’s road network and reducing the cost to the local and national economy due to congestion and delays;
• Reduce journey times for local people – most drivers are expected to save more than two minutes of travel time during peak periods – unlocking development potential in the City Region through the provision of additional road capacity and making the Tees Valley more attractive to inward investors and visitors;
• Improve the resilience of the network and therefore reduce the negative impact of events such as roadworks and road traffic accidents;
• Make journeys safer by improving the standard and capacity of the road network;
• Improve access to the Tees Valley’s Enterprise Zone sites, the South Tees Development Corporation site, the expanding port facilities along the River Tees and the newly rebranded Teesside International Airport;
• Deliver connectivity and journey time reliability enhancements for freight and logistics traffic – a key component of the Tees Valley’s growth plans;
• Support the economic growth objectives of the Northern Powerhouse and the Tees Valley City Region; and
• Help realise the full benefit of the committed A19 Norton to Wynyard improvement scheme, which is due for completion by 2022.
The preferred option – the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option – has been identified as the one that will achieve the agreed objectives and provide a holistic solution to the identified national, regional and local issues identified. The economic analysis of the preferred option demonstrates that an adjusted benefit : cost ratio of over 1.5 is generated if wider economic impacts are considered, representing Medium value for money.
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However, it is important to note that the overall value for money of the scheme encompasses more than just the benefit : cost ratio value – there are a range of benefits for which the standard approach does not provide a monetisation methodology, or for which the calculation is outside of the current scope of assessment. These benefits are more strategic in nature, and include:
• Unlocking future development growth across the City Region through the provision of additional road capacity;
• Increased network resilience through the provision of additional lanes across the River Tees and the removal of existing vehicle conflicts; and
• Reducing the negative impact of the ongoing and significant maintenance requirements associated with the existing Tees Viaduct and Newport Bridge structures.
The base cost estimate for the preferred option is £205,284,154, whilst the estimated outturn cost is £298,317,817, with the latter figure also including a calculated allowance for risk. The costs have been derived in a robust way using information from current and recently completed projects, and the works required have been quantified based on the current scheme designs.
Several potential funding routes have been considered for the scheme, with the most appropriate being the Highways England Road Investment Strategy and the Large Local Majors element of the new National Roads Fund.
Irrespective of the final funding route, given its high level of interaction with the Strategic Road Network, the scheme should, ideally, be delivered by Highways England through its procurement processes and procedures allied to the Project Control Framework. On this basis, the procurement strategy that has been prepared recommends that the Late Early Contractor Involvement method of procurement be adopted for the scheme, with appointment of the contractor after publication of the draft Orders and Environmental Statement.
A sound governance structure has been in place throughout the life of the scheme, and Highways England has been closely involved in its development since inception. Highways England is supportive of the scheme, and its in-house technical assurance teams have reviewed the traffic, economic and environmental products prepared in support of this business case.
A project plan has been developed setting out all of the key project tasks and their duration, the interdependencies between each of the tasks, and key milestones and gateways. This plan envisages a start of works in 2024 and completion of the scheme by 2027.
Finally, to support the ongoing development and implementation of the scheme, a stakeholder engagement and public consultation strategy has been created and outline benefits realisation and monitoring and evaluation plans produced. The most recent public consultation exercise, carried out earlier this year, demonstrated a high level of support for the scheme from both the business community and the travelling public.
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1 Introduction
1.1 Overview
The economic geography and peripheral nature of the North East is one of the greatest challenges to delivering future growth and prosperity across the region. This is particularly true for the Tees Valley as it contains a number of centres within a small geographical area. Much of the recent activity from the Tees Valley Combined Authority (TVCA) and the Local Authorities has been aimed at addressing the challenges of job losses in the industrial economy, issues of inequality, high unemployment and social exclusion and the difficulties within the local housing market. However, whilst the local economy now has stronger foundations as a result, further targeted intervention is required in order to achieve the ambitious growth targets set by the TVCA.
The lack of a single dominant commercial centre has transport implications and means that good interconnectivity is vital for the Tees Valley to function effectively. The Tees Valley Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) and Consultation Draft Strategic Transport Plan (STP) clearly articulate the need for better transport connections across the City Region, providing businesses and residents with a high quality road network that is safe, less congested and more reliable.
This will boost competitiveness through improved connectivity across the North, as identified in Transport for the North’s (TfN’s) Strategic Transport Plan, linking key sectors and leading industries with other centres of expertise outside of the Tees Valley. An improved road network across the Tees Valley will also provide more access to global markets, increasing the capacity for growth and creating more jobs for the people of the City Region – this is particularly important as 70% of major local businesses are internationally owned.
1.2 Business Case
This document and its series of appendices comprise the Outline Business Case (OBC) for a new strategic road crossing of the River Tees, in the approximate location of the existing Tees Viaduct on the A19, as shown in Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2, as well as the following photographs.
The A19 is a dual carriageway trunk road that runs from its junction with the A1 at Seaton Burn, north of Newcastle, through (via the A168) to the A1(M) at Dishforth, thereby providing the principal north-south strategic road link through the Tees Valley City Region. The new crossing will address existing congestion and network reliability issues on this key route that, unaddressed, will constrain the Tees Valley’s growth ambitions.
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Figure 1.1: Location of Existing A19 Tees Viaduct (Google Maps)
Figure 1.2: Aerial Photograph of Existing A19 Tees Viaduct (Bing Maps)
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1.3 Document Content and Structure
This document has been prepared in accordance with Transport Business Case guidance, Strategic Case Supplementary Guidance: Rebalancing Toolkit and WebTAG Transport Appraisal guidance issued by the Department for Transport (DfT). It also recognises the requirements of Highways England’s Project Control Framework (PCF), HM Treasury’s Green Book and associated supplementary guidance on public sector business cases.
The remainder of the document is structured as follows:
• Chapter 2: The Strategic Case, which presents the rationale for undertaking the scheme by demonstrating the need for change, and how the intervention furthers the aims and objectives of not only the TVCA and its constituent authorities, but also DfT, Highways England and TfN;
• Chapter 3: The Economic Case, which demonstrates the impacts of the scheme in terms of value for money in relation to economic, social and environmental impacts;
• Chapter 4: The Financial Case, which explains how the scheme costs have been derived and illustrates how the scheme is affordable and fundable;
• Chapter 5: The Commercial Case, which demonstrates that the preferred option will result in a viable procurement and a well-structured contract between the public sector and its service providers;
• Chapter 6: The Management Case, which demonstrates that robust arrangements are in place for the delivery, monitoring and evaluation of the scheme and that the necessary arrangements are in place for change and contract management, benefits realisation and risk management.
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2 The Strategic Case
This chapter of the OBC defines the policy and business strategy alignment, examines the existing characteristics of the local area and the problems identified (both current and future), identifies a series of scheme objectives and sets out the options that have been considered. It therefore demonstrates the case for change – that is, the rationale for making the investment.
It has been prepared with particular reference to the DfT’s Strategic Case Supplementary Guidance: Rebalancing Toolkit, published in December 2017, which is designed to help authors of strategic cases assess how a programme or project fits with the objective of spreading growth across the country, and also introduces a framework for presenting the rebalancing case more consistently.
Figure 2.1 summarises the justification for the scheme in line with the six steps set out in the Rebalancing Toolkit, each of which is explored in more detail in the following sections of this chapter.
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Figure 2.1: Summary of the Strategic Case
Some increase Persistent High levels of Ageing, growing Poor but economic and ongoing multiple STEP 1: population with external output remains labour deprivation CONTEXT younger cohort perceptions below UK demand and significant moving away of the area average issues disparities
Current Problems
Few high capacity Limited alternative routes Safety issues due to vehicular river crossings of suitable capacity network configuration
Existing crossings will Inter-operation of Tees Focus of demand on a few require increasing Valley Local and routes across City Region maintenance due to age of Strategic Road Networks STEP 2: structures TRANSPORT BARRIERS Demand for road use still Planned and unplanned high and will increase incidents have high impact
Future Problems Increasing delays, congestion, high travel costs, unable to support growth, making Tees Valley less attractive for investment
Objectives of Scheme
Support the economic growth objectives of the Northern Powerhouse and the Tees Valley City STEP 3: Region, improve network performance, resilience and safety, support sustainable local residential OBJECTIVES development, minimise impacts on the natural and built environment AND OPTIONS Option 2: A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Option 1: A19 Tees Viaduct Option Enhancement Option
Impacts
STEP 4: IMPACTS
Measures for Success
STEP 5: Middlesbrough and Other Transport Proposals WIDER River Tees Port Expansion Stockton Local Plans and – particularly A19 Norton LOCAL Economic/Investment to Wynyard Improvements PLANS Strategies
Wider Policy Alignment STEP 6: Stakeholder Views: Transport Investment Strategy TfN Strategic Transport Plan WIDER Public Highways England Route Strategy STDC EVIDENCE Businesses Tees Valley SEP and STP
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2.1.1 Tees Valley Area Profile
Covering over 3,300 square miles, the Tees Valley comprises the five local authority areas of Darlington, Stockton on Tees, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, and Redcar and Cleveland. The area represents 1.2% of the population of England and 0.6% of the English land mass. It is highly urbanised, with 90% of the population living in urban areas. The population is concentrated in the five main town centres (35%) with the remaining population located in the suburbs, in smaller settlements, or, the remaining 10%, in rural areas.
Demographic Context
The Office of National Statistics’ mid-2017 population of Tees Valley is estimated to be 672,500 of whom:
• 130,400 people are aged 0-15 (19% of population);
• 415,600 people are aged 16-64 (62% of population); and
• 126,500 people are aged 65 and over (19% of population).
Although there has been an upward trend in the size of the population since 2000, population growth has lagged below that in the North of England and England as a whole. The Tees Valley population is projected to continue its long term growth seen since the start of the millennium of approximately 1,000 per year until 2020, growth is then projected to slow both locally and nationally reaching around 680,600 by 2036. By 2037, the population is expected to increase by 1.2% compared to a 10% rise nationally and a 5% rise across the North of England.
The Tees Valley age profile is also older than in the North of England and England, demonstrated by a higher median age (41.1 in Tees Valley, compared with 40.6 and 39.8 respectively), and a lower old age dependency ratio (3.1 persons of working age for every person of state pensionable age in Tees Valley, compared with 3.2 and 3.3 respectively). There is an ageing workforce, exacerbated by the high percentage in the 18-20 and 24-29 age cohort who currently choose to move away from the Tees Valley.
Although there is projected growth, it is not expected in all age groups. The working age population (aged 16-64) is predicted to be almost 23,000 lower in in 2037 at 57%, down from 62% in 2017. Conversely, there will be an increase in the proportion of over 65s, with the percentage of the population over the retirement age expected to grow from 19% in 2017 to a quarter in 2037. Coupled with the fall in working age population, this will bring skills shortages when experienced and highly skilled staff
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leave the workforce. There will also be implications for health services as pressures increase.
Ensuring that the proposed economic growth and additional jobs envisaged in the SEP are delivered will require more inward migration from other population centres to counter the decrease in working population. This will mean the transport network will have to cope with a greater demand for travel to/from and around the City Region. These additional travel demands will exacerbate existing issues on the strategic and local road networks described later in this section. A new crossing of the River Tees is an important step in providing a national, regional and local road network that is fit for the future.
Social Context
Whilst the population of the Tees Valley is predominantly White British (93%), the Tees Valley is home to a small Black and Minority Ethnic (BAME) community with Middlesbrough having an ethnic make-up that more closely reflects the national picture (86% of Middlesbrough’s population is White British compared with 80% of England’s).
There are still high levels of severe disadvantage across Tees Valley. The Index of Multiple Deprivation combines different aspects of deprivation, including income, employment, education and skills, health and disability. Compared with other Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) areas, Tees Valley has the second largest proportion of lower super output areas (LSOAs) within the most deprived 10% in England, at just over a quarter (27%). Compared with other highly deprived LEP areas, Tees Valley also has large numbers of LSOAs that are within the 20% least deprived and ranks third out of the 39 LEPs in this respect.
However, looking at the deprivation at LEP area level hides the diversity of the City Region. There are multiple pockets of severe deprivation in Tees Valley, with one area ranking the 55th most deprived in the country, but also areas that have been ranked within the least deprived in the country. In addition, whilst a much larger proportion of LSOAs are within the most deprived 10% than the national average, the numbers within the second and third deciles match the national average. The number of LSOAs which are within the least deprived in the country has been growing over time, indicating that the polarity within Tees Valley is increasing. The disparities in levels of deprivation is illustrated in Figure 2.2.
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Figure 2.2: Distribution of LSOA Deprivation Scores across Tees Valley
The Tees Valley has higher death rates than the national average – by 11% - for both Males and Females – this is equivalent to around 625 extra deaths each year. All Tees Valley Local Authorities have death rates above the national average. Standard Mortality Rates (SMRs) are a strong indicator of deprivation and all the results, with few exceptions, follow the pattern of high SMRs in deprived areas and low SMRs in more affluent areas.
Unemployment is a persistent issue, with youth unemployment, deprivation and barriers to work being particular problems. Long term unemployed people face multiple and complex barriers when accessing work.
To reduce unemployment, it is vital to ensure education, training and job opportunities are easily accessible, particularly in the identified growth and high demand sectors. Increasing the mobility of residents will help to support the workforce offer of the Tees Valley – it will increase the accessibility of employment sites and contribute to releasing capacity on the transport network to accommodate future development.
The Tees Valley, and particularly Middlesbrough and Stockton, have an opportunity to increase the number of people in employment by ensuring easy and affordable access to jobs, education and training. A new crossing of the River Tees will provide businesses with better connectivity to the Tees Valley and support employment, particularly within Enterprise Zones and the expanding port facilities on the River Tees, including the South Tees Development Corporation (STDC) site.
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Economic Context
Total economic output (as measured by GVA) from the Tees Valley stood at £13.1 billion in 2017, growth of £60 million or a 0.5% increase on 2016. However, this is significantly below the UK’s growth rate of 1.9% and also the North of England’s 1.5% increase. Tees Valley GVA accounts for 0.8% of England’s total GVA (0.7% for the UK). The annual change in GVA for the Tees Valley is shown in Figure 2.3.
Figure 2.3: Real Terms GVA Index (1998=1) in the Tees Valley and UK
The City Region has a significant productivity challenge, particularly in relation to GVA per head of population, illustrated in Figure 2.4. At £19,512 per annum, the Tees Valley’s GVA per capita was some 71.5% of the UK rate in 2017, representing a GVA gap of £5.2 billion - this gap has increased by 50% in real terms since 2009. This output gap results from Tees Valley residents having relatively low economic activity and employment rates, a small pool of working age people and lower productivity.
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Figure 2.4: Tees Valley Productivity Indices (2017)
Whilst overall GVA is low, GVA per employee in the production sector (£86,000 in 2014) is well above the LEP average of £76,800, and other major LEP geographies such as Leeds, Manchester and Birmingham. Production industries (such as process or advanced engineering) contribute over 50% more of Tees Valley’s economic output than the sector does for England as a whole. Both Construction and Public Services also account for a higher share of the area’s total GVA than they do nationally. Professional & Business Services and to a lesser extent Other Private Services, including Culture & Leisure, Logistics, Wholesale & Retail, IT and Media contribute relatively less to the Tees Valley’s output than in England as an average.
There were 17,230 enterprises in Tees Valley in 2018, down a little (270 lower) on the year before (17,500). This means that Tees Valley now has the lowest business density rate of any LEP area, with just 415 enterprises per 10,000 working age residents in 2018 – 65% of the UK rate (643). This represents an enterprise gap of around 9,500 businesses compared to the UK. Whilst Tees Valley is closer to the North of England average rate of 542, this still represents a Tees Valley to North of England enterprise gap of over 5,000 firms.
The Tees Valley resident employment rate peaked in 2017 at 69%, whilst nationally and regionally the rate continues to rise. Over the last year the Tees Valley rate has fallen by 0.7% (4,500 fewer residents in employment) compared to a 0.6% rise nationally and a 0.8% rise across the North of England. 280,300 Tees Valley residents aged 16-64 were employed in 2018, 68.4% of the working age population, compared to 75.2% nationally. Figure 2.5 illustrates the recent trends in the employment rate.
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Figure 2.5: Employment Rate Trends (2012 – 2018)
In 2018, 4.1% of Tees Valley residents aged 16-64 were claiming either Job Seekers Allowance or Universal Credit (and required to seek work), almost double the national average of 2.3%. This rises to 6.6% for those aged 18-24, compared to 3.2% nationally. Despite this, actual unemployment numbers have halved over the past five years.
The Tees Valley historically has a low percentage of residents employed in high value occupations compared to the national average – with 38.6% employed in high value occupations in 2017 compared to 42.2% nationally, 3.6% below the national average compared to 4.5% in 2013. Residents are less well qualified than many other parts of the country – in terms of Level 4+ qualifications the City Region needed an additional 34,300 residents qualified to that level to match the UK rate in 2017.
A summary of these key economic indicators, and the gaps to the national average, is shown in Figure 2.6.
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Figure 2.6: Summary Economic Indicators
Despite these issues, the Tees Valley has significant strengths. It has the fourth highest proportion of businesses undertaking product or service innovation in the UK and it is part of the only continuous net exporting region of goods in the UK with additional opportunities to pursue. The Tees Valley has also been ranked in third place in the UK for business expansion of existing companies, and business start-up rates continue to outperform the UK average.
The TVCA has ambitious plans to grow the City Region economy over the next ten years, aiming to create 25,000 new jobs and 22,000 new homes, making the Tees Valley an even better place for residents and businesses. To deliver on these ambitions, the TVCA recognises a need to build on existing strengths and world-class expertise in areas such as advanced manufacturing (particularly oil and gas, metals and automotive), chemicals and process and logistics, and invest in growing capability in new industries - biologics, subsea, digital/creative and the low carbon economy. Businesses within these sectors are spread right across the City Region, as shown in Figure 2.7.
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Figure 2.7: Key Tees Valley Business Locations
There are also a wide range of cost-effective sites and premises across the Tees Valley, with a number of Enterprise Zone sites and a total of 423 hectares available for new business investment that offer financial incentives, as well as simplified planning and superfast broadband. The sites include both new and established business and enterprise parks, plus large cleared industrial sites with access to utilities, port services and logistics.
11 of the 12 Tees Valley Enterprise Zone sites lie within 20 minutes’ drive of the A19, as shown in Figure 2.7, and the A19 serves areas of all four prime capabilities from the Northern Powerhouse Independent Economic Review, including Belasis Business Park, Tees Advanced Manufacturing Park (TeesAMP), Queen’s Meadow Business Park and North Shore Innovation Centre.
Despite the clear opportunities for economic growth, the ageing population implies labour supply constraints will increase meaning that there is the potential for there to be a lack of sufficient local workers in the future. The jobs base is also dependent on a small number of large employers, although there is a comparatively high business start-up rate, particularly amongst lifestyle entrepreneurs. Therefore, promoting the towns and rural areas of Tees Valley to change external perceptions of the area will assist in attracting and retaining a larger workforce.
New transport investment will make it easier for visitors, leisure and business to come to Tees Valley. The New Tees Crossing will support the economic prosperity of the Tees Valley through enhanced connectivity. The new crossing will improve
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journey times for commuters, businesses and visitors to the local area as well as for trips into and out of the Tees Valley City Region from the north and south.
2.1.2 Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees Area Profile
Middlesbrough and Stockton and the river corridor between them lie at the heart of the Tees Valley City Region. Both Boroughs have the potential to deliver enhanced, city-scale facilities, services and infrastructure to drive forward the economy.
Middlesbrough Council is a unitary authority serving an area covering approximately 5,400 hectares with a population of 138,412 (2011 Census). From its mid-19th century origins, the economy of Middlesbrough was built upon iron, steel and heavy manufacturing along the river and around its port. The traditional economic base of heavy industry and petrochemicals went into decline in the 1970s and 1980s, shedding labour and becoming more capital intensive in the face of external competition. Since this time the economy of Middlesbrough has restructured by diversification into light and general industry and by enhancing the town centre as the focal point for retail, leisure, commercial and civic administration for the whole Tees Valley City Region.
This has been a long term process and a number of indicators show that Middlesbrough’s economy is still weak compared with other areas, with low skill levels, high unemployment, low rates of business formation, and a low cost/income economy. However, the indicators also show that Middlesbrough has been making strides towards economic recovery in recent years.
Middlesbrough town centre is the principal retail centre for the Tees Valley City Region and the third largest retail centre in the North East. It is also the single largest employment destination within the Tees Valley employing over 20,000 people and as such, is the principal economic driver within the Borough. Much of this employment, nearly 90%, is within the service sector. The flow of people who travel to work in Middlesbrough from outside of the town is greater than that of people who live in the town but travel to work outside in other districts. Whilst this illustrates the importance of Middlesbrough as an employment centre, there are still many local people who cannot gain access to the job market because of a lack of skills or education.
Middlesbrough’s population is also in decline. Since peaking at about 160,000 in the 1960s, the population has been steadily falling. The decline has come about as a result of outward migration, as opposed to declining birth rates or increasing death rates. If allowed to continue it could impact upon Middlesbrough’s role within the Tees Valley City Region, and the ability to deliver quality services to the population. More recently, there has been an increase in house building activity following the adoption of the Middlesbrough Housing Local Plan in November 2014 and the setting
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of ambitious targets for new homes by Middlesbrough Council. Middlesbrough has a flourishing Asian community and has the highest proportion of minority ethnic communities in the Tees Valley at 6% of the town’s population.
Despite recent improvements in the local economy and employment, the majority of Middlesbrough’s inner area terraced housing and social rented housing estates in east and west Middlesbrough, experience high levels of multiple deprivation (16 wards are in the worst 10% of IMD national ranking (2000)). There is a complex relationship of social and economic factors including high long term and male unemployment, low income, benefit dependency, poor educational achievement, ill health, low car ownership often linked to other factors such as poor housing and high local crime rates.
Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council is a unitary authority with a population of 191,600 (2011 Census). It consists of Stockton-on-Tees town centre and smaller outlying settlements including Billingham, Norton, Thornaby, Yarm and Ingleby Barwick. Durham Tees Valley Airport is also partly within the Borough. The Borough accounts for the largest number of residents within the Tees Valley City Region.
The working age population has declined in recent years from a peak of 124,474 in 2011 to 122,849 in 2015 – so in 2011 those aged 16-64 made up 64.9% of the population, and by 2015 this had fallen to 63.1%. The population aged 16-64 is forecast to decrease further to 61.7% by 2031 (1,710 fewer people). By 2031, the population aged over 65 is forecast to increase in Stockton-on-Tees by 41.0%, which is higher growth than both the national (+38.5%) and Tees Valley (+35.7%) projections.
The area of Stockton-on-Tees Borough is 20,393 hectares in size. It owes much of its early development to the River Tees. By the 17th century, Stockton-on-Tees became a major river port transporting coal to London. The Borough is also famous for the first passenger railway as well as for its iron and steel industries. Although little remains of Stockton-on-Tees’ industrial heritage, the River Tees has an increasing focus for leisure following the development of the Tidal Barrage in 1995. Extensive regeneration programmes are also being brought forward for many of the former industrial sites.
The Borough has had to adapt and respond to change and now represents a modern industrial and service-based economy. Although the existing manufacturing base is smaller, it is still significant with a technically and highly skilled workforce remaining. There were 5,445 registered businesses located in Stockton-on-Tees in 2016, around one third of the businesses in the Tees Valley.
The number of residents in Stockton-on-Tees that are economically active is 95,600 (76.8%), 89,900 of which are in employment, and an estimated 7,200 are unemployed. The employment rate of 72.1% is lower than nationally (73.8%), but
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higher than regionally (69.4%). Unemployment has followed a similar pattern to that of the City Region, and remains higher than national averages, peaking at 11.1% (10,600) in 2012. Since then there has been a fall of 3,400 people to 7.4% which, unlike the national rate, is still higher than the rate before the 2008 economic downturn.
Stockton-on-Tees’ commuting patterns from the 2011 Census indicate that over half (44,347) of employed residents lived and worked in the Borough, with the addition of 7% (6,438) who were classed as homeworkers, 7% (5,836) had no fixed workplace, and 1% worked offshore. Stockton-on-Tees has a net inward commuting pattern, as 768 more people travel into the Borough for work than leave it. 34% (29,650) of residents travel outside the Borough for work and 35% of Stockton on-Tees’ workers originate from outside the Borough.
The Borough has a unique social and economic mix with discrete geographical areas of multiple and isolated types of deprivation, situated alongside areas of relative affluence. The 2015 IMD show Stockton-on-Tees is ranked 88 out of the 326 Local Authorities districts in England, making it within the 30% most deprived areas nationally. Whilst 28% of the population live within the top 20% of least deprived areas of England, 28% live in the 20% most deprived areas. In addition, 34 out of the 120 LSOAs across Stockton-on-Tees are within the 20% least deprived LSOAs in England, whereas 33 of the LSOAs are within the 20% most deprived LSOAs in England. Comparisons with the 2010 IMD indicate that the gap is increasing between the most deprived and the less deprived areas of the Borough.
2.2 Step 2: Identifying Transport Barriers
2.2.1 Tees Valley Transport Issues
Tees Valley is recognised as an economic functioning geography with several economic foci, rather than one single dominant commercial centre. This polycentric character results in complex traffic flows between the various centres which, combined with the significance of intra-regional commuting indicates the importance of good, reliable interconnectivity for the economy. The polycentric nature of the labour markets is shown in Figure 2.8.
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Figure 2.8: Tees Valley Labour Markets
87% of residents work within Tees Valley, with relatively few commuters crossing the Tees Valley boundary (around 248,000 people live and work in Tees Valley with 38,000 Tees Valley residents working outside of the area and 35,000 Tees Valley workers resident in other areas).
Whilst most people work within their district of residence, there are substantial proportions travelling between districts within Tees Valley, as illustrated in Figure 2.9.
In terms of flows to Tees Valley’s neighbouring areas, there is a small net out-flow of around 700 commuters to North Yorkshire (comprised of 9,700 out-flow and 8,900 in- flow) with a similarly small net out-flow to Tyne & Wear of 1,300 (5,800 out-flow and 4,600 in-flow). The largest commuter flows are with County Durham with a net in- flow of close to 6,900 (comprised of 10,600 out-flow and 17,500 in-flow).
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Figure 2.9: 2011 Census Travel to Work Data
With approximately a quarter of the population of the North East and a higher population density, the Tees Valley demonstrates a greater reliance on motor vehicle transport than the wider region. Despite recent and ongoing improvements to sustainable modes, for example through the Tees Valley Bus Network Improvements scheme, motor vehicle traffic has continued to grow in recent years and commuting by road, by any form of motorised vehicular transport, continues to the dominate travel patterns within the City Region. Figure 2.10 illustrates the trend in motor vehicle traffic, which has grown again in recent years since a dip as a result of the economic downturn in 2008.
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Figure 2.10: Tees Valley Motor Vehicle Traffic Trends
5,200
5,100
5,000
4,900
4,800 Million Vehicle MillionVehicle Kilometres 4,700
4,600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
Car travel accounts for 72.6% of all journey to work trips in the Tees Valley (2011 Census) and road transport will continue to play a significant role in the future economy of the City Region.
For the River Tees screenline, that includes the A19 Tees Viaduct and Newport Bridge, the same trends in continued growth in car and total traffic levels is evident, as shown in Figure 2.11.
Figure 2.11: River Tees Screenline
Car All Traffic
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000 Annual Flow Daily Annual Average 70,000
60,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year
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The main road network in the Tees Valley comprises the A1(M) and A19, with north- south connections via Darlington and Middlesbrough respectively, and the east-west A66, A689 and A174, which connect Middlesbrough, Stockton, Hartlepool, Redcar, Teesport and Durham Tees Valley Airport to the A19, A1(M) and beyond. These key links provide the main source of strategic trip making for the Tees Valley, delivering vital connectivity to the North East and the rest of the UK.
As strategic routes, the A1(M), A19, A174, and the A66 west of the A19, and the A1053 between the A174 and A66 fall under the remit of Highways England. The A66 east of the A19 comes under the authority of Middlesbrough Council and Redcar and Cleveland Borough Council. The A689 falls under the auspices of the local highway authorities of Durham County Council, Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council and Hartlepool Borough Council but is part of the recently designated Major Road Network.
Whilst the Tees Valley does not suffer from widespread traffic congestion to the same extent as some other city regions, there is significant congestion on localised sections of the local and strategic road networks. This congestion could hinder access to some areas and impact on the distribution of goods, potentially stifling regeneration proposals.
Traffic flows are focussed along the north-south A1(M) and A19, and along the east- west A66 and A689. In places the A19 carries up to 51% more traffic than the A1(M) in the Tees Valley City Region, underlining the demand for north-south connections through the heart of the Tees Valley.
It is recognised that economic growth in the Tees Valley hinges on the provision of first-rate transport links. The movement of freight is of particular importance due to the industrial and manufacturing activities located in the region and the international gateways of Teesport and Durham Tees Valley Airport.
A range and choice of transport to key labour markets is important in order to provide opportunity for everyone to access appropriate employment. The car or van is used for 73% of the journeys to work in the Tees Valley, compared with 62% nationally. Car ownership is increasing and forecast to rise further, increasing pressure on the road network in the immediate future.
Economic specialisation within the Tees Valley as part of the vision for regeneration is likely to reinforce its polycentric form, hence transport solutions that support this economic vision to provide better quality links between centres will be vital. Furthermore, freight movements are key to the Tees Valley economy, both through its manufacturing industries and as movements through its several ports, including the deep sea Teesport. Therefore, future economic growth requires that the transport network is able to accommodate increased freight movements. In
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particular, the A1(M), A19 and A66 strategic routes are highlighted as key for the City Region. In general, improved connections beyond the region to the rest of the country, and to London in particular, are also highlighted as being desirable.
2.2.2 A19 and River Crossing Issues
Current River Crossing Capacity
There are currently 10 crossing points of the River Tees between the west of Stockton and the coast, as illustrated in Figure 2.12. Six of these existing points are for vehicular traffic, however, only two of these are capable of carrying significant volumes of traffic – the A66 Surtees Bridge and the A19 Tees Viaduct.
Highway crossing capacity and how it has changed over time is illustrated by the timeline below. The timeline indicates that there has been little increase in capacity since 2008 and this was only to upgrade an existing structure.
• A1130 Victoria Bridge – current bridge opened to traffic in 1887;
• Transporter Bridge – opened to traffic in 1911;
• A1032 Newport Bridge – opened to traffic in 1934;
• A19 Tees Viaduct – opened to traffic in 1975;
• A66 Surtees Bridge – Originally opened to traffic in 1981 (with two lanes each way), the current bridge (with three lanes each way) opened to traffic in 2008; and
• Princess of Wales Bridge - opened to traffic in 1992.
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Figure 2.12: River Tees Crossing Points
The A66 Surtees Bridge crosses the River Tees in an east-west direction, and is three lanes wide in either direction, but only two are available for through traffic – the third acts as a weaving section between the junctions with the A135 and the A1045. It also has a pedestrian/cycleway on its southern side. The bridge structure itself is relatively new, having been opened in 2008 to replace a previous bridge that suffered from differential settlement.
The A19 Tees Viaduct is the key north-south crossing of the River Tees. It is three lanes wide in each direction, although again only two lanes are used by through traffic, with a weaving section over the Viaduct itself, and no hard strip or hard shoulder, nor any pedestrian facilities. This section of the A19 currently carries 112,000 vehicles per day – the parallel A1(M) carries only 43,000 at the point at which it crosses the River Tees, emphasising the importance of this route.
The Tees Viaduct and the adjoining Portrack Flyover (the section of the A19 to the north of the River Tees, passing directly over the Portrack Roundabout), were built between 1973 and 1975. The Viaduct was designed with sufficient clearance to allow ships to pass, although since Newport Bridge had its lifting deck functionally removed in 1990, large shipping can no longer reach this point.
Newport Bridge itself is the designated strategic diversion route for the Tees Viaduct but carries only 22,000 to 23,000 vehicles per day. Further east, the only remaining crossing option is the historic Transporter Bridge, which carries less than 1,000 vehicles per day.
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To the west of the A19, the Tees Barrage is owned by the Canal and River Trust and is unsuitable for large volumes of traffic (especially being an unadopted road), currently being designated for through use by pedestrians and cyclists only. The Tees Barrage also restricts the passage of large vessels, with the maximum size being 25.0 metres long and 6.0 metres wide. Within Stockton centre, there are two pedestrian bridges, a rail bridge and a further two road bridges (Princess of Wales Bridge and A1130 Victoria Bridge), neither of which are suitable to carry significant additional volumes of traffic.
As a result, north-south traffic, whether strategic or local in nature, principally uses the existing Tees Viaduct.
A19
At a strategic level, the A19 provides links from the Tees Valley City Region to the North East and Leeds city regions, the former having the second largest inter-city region flows east of the Pennines. The A19 has been identified as a new high quality strategic route – an “expressway” – by Highways England, and there has been recent investment in two “Pinch Point” junction improvement schemes at the A19/A174 Parkway and A19/A689 Wynyard junctions.
However, the A19 also connects the key centres of the commuting population in the Tees Valley and the North East and therefore accommodates a large number of short urban trips. 60% of the trips on the existing Tees Viaduct have an origin and a destination within the Tees Valley City Region, emphasising the inter-operation between the strategic and local road networks.
The dual role that the A19 expressway is currently performing impacts upon the ability of the route to function in its strategic capacity, adding to the problems described below at the Tees Viaduct. The zone of influence of this crossing can be significant with the extent of congestion arising from any incident dependent upon the severity. Congestion on the A19 can stretch between the A174 Parkway to the south and A689 Wynyard to the north if there is an incident on or around the Tees Viaduct. It is more difficult to define the precise east-west influence of the existing crossing as congestion spreads on the local road network due to the limited number of vehicular crossing points in the area.
There is a need to remove or reduce levels of local traffic from the A19 at this pinch point to increase strategic road capacity so as to provide a more reliable, safer, north-south route. An improvement to the Tees Viaduct section of the A19 will also provide a higher quality diversionary route for the A1/A1(M), as well as reduce increasing pressure on the other crossing points on the local road network.
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Road Safety and Accessibility
Low speed rear shunt accidents are prevalent on the existing Tees Viaduct, and this section of the A19 contains two of the top 250 collision locations on the strategic road network (ranked 52 and 158), as illustrated in Figure 2.13.
Figure 2.13: Road Safety Issues (Highways England, 2014)
All of the current crossing points of the River Tees in the local area are multi-modal with the exception of the A19 - there is a cycle ban on the A19 between the A174 and the A689 that was implemented following a cyclist fatality. Hence, there is no current provision along the A19 for non-motorised users (NMUs) which requires them to use the crossings in Stockton, Tees Barrage or Newport Bridge.
Pedestrian/cycle severance is present for housing developments along the A19 on the section between the A66 and A174. In particular, there are currently accessibility and severance issues for pedestrians and cyclists at the A19/A1130 interchange.
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Bus operations in the Tees Valley run predominantly on the local road network and utilise the Victoria or Newport Bridges, although the coach services and the X9 service to Newcastle currently use the A19 at the existing Tees Viaduct. Congestion and issues on the local roads due to incidents on the strategic road network can have a significant detrimental impact on bus operations across the City Region.
Asset Condition
Given the age of the Tees Viaduct structure, it is likely to require increasing maintenance intervention in the longer term. A series of works is due to commence on the A19 to replace the bridge piers on the Tees Viaduct and Portrack Flyover sections of the A19. This will be a like for like replacement to extend the life of the structure and no changes to carriageway alignment are proposed. The life of the existing Tees Viaduct structure is estimated (by Highways England) at 120 years from the date of construction (1975) without the pier replacement and should be extended with the planned works.
Incidents and Network Resilience
Traffic flows on the A19 can also be disrupted when incidents occur resulting in the need to close/partially close the route, or when high winds (between 45 and 50 mph, depending on their direction) require the closure of the Tees Viaduct. Any issue on the A19 or A66 causes significant congestion on the local road crossings, and the wider local road network. This can result in traffic delays over a wide area both north and south of the River Tees. Diversion of traffic also creates problems for the other vehicular crossings, with a lack of overall resilience in the network due to few convenient, alternative ways to cross the river which are suitable for high volumes of traffic and heavy vehicles.
One recent incident on the Tees Viaduct involved the closure of two lanes of the northbound carriageway due to a HGV fuel spillage. This occurred on 18th October 2017 at 8.50am. The lanes were not fully opened until 10.30am, causing heavy tailbacks for morning commuters and business travel. This is a typical example of the type of disruption that occurs on a regular basis.
The official diversionary route for this part of the A19 is the adjacent Newport Bridge and crosses the river to the east of the Tees Viaduct. Newport Bridge is a Grade II listed structure that typically carries around 23,000 vehicles per day. The bridge was closed to traffic in 2014 to undertake essential maintenance works, causing significant additional congestion which at one point extended northwards beyond the A19/A179 Sheraton Interchange, a distance of 11 miles. Examples of this level of congestion are shown in Figures 2.14 and 2.15 taken from images from Roadworks.org.
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Figure 2.14: Monday 13 October 2014 (1757 hours)
Figure 2.15: Tuesday 14 October 2014 (1808 hours)
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Due to the age of the structure (it opened in 1934), the requirement for future maintenance will intensify, with a major refurbishment due in the next 5 to 10 years that will require severe traffic restrictions and, potentially, full closures for prolonged periods. The ability of Newport Bridge to accommodate traffic diverted from the A19 will therefore be compromised on an increasing basis.
The principal impacts of congestion and incidents are as follows:
• Unreliable journey times on key route for local and strategic traffic;
• Congestion affecting local residents and businesses as well as strategic journeys;
• Lack of road network resilience over a wide area;
• Cost to the economy from drivers caught in congestion and additional time for goods to be delivered; and
• Problems exacerbated by limited alternative routes (especially for heavy goods vehicles).
Network Performance Issues
According to Advice Notice TA46/97 Annex D, a typical congestion reference flow (CRF) for a dual 2 lane all-purpose road such as the A19 in this location is 68,000. CRFs are an estimate of the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) flow at which the carriageway is likely to be ‘congested’ in the peak periods on an average day and relate to links between junctions. For the purposes of calculating the CRF, ‘congestion’ is defined as the situation when the hourly traffic demand exceeds the maximum sustainable hourly throughput of the link. At this point the effect on traffic is likely to be one or more of the following: flow breaks down with speeds varying considerably, average speeds drop significantly, the sustainable throughput is reduced and queues are likely to form.
The most recently published DfT traffic statistics indicate that the AADT flow on the Tees Viaduct is 111,866 vehicles. This flow is over 50% more than the typical CRF for a link of this type. It should also be noted that on this section of the A19, the CRF is actually likely to be a lot lower than 68,000 due to the number of merges, diverges and weaving sections that will reduce the link capacity below the theoretical level. The section of the A19 over the Tees Viaduct, and the approaches to it, regularly suffer from stationary traffic - only 55% of journeys are classed as being “on time” by Highways England.
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Analysis has been undertaken of traffic growth at the existing crossing between 2010 and 2017 in each hour of the day. Figures 2.16 and 2.17 present the results and clearly show that peak period delays have constrained growth at the crossing over this period and resulted in peak spreading. For example:
• Growth has been less than 5% southbound between 7-9 am on the A19 between 2010 and 2017;
• Growth has only been around 2.5% southbound between 4-5pm between 2010 and 2017 and growth has been prevented (declines) between 5-6pm on the A19; and
• Growth has been prevented (declines) at 8-9am and 4-6pm northbound on the A19.
Figure 2.16: A19 Southbound Change in Flows between 2010 and 2017
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Figure 2.17: A19 Northbound Change in Flows between 2010 and 2017
Figures 2.18 and 2.19 present the observed journey times along the A19 between the A139 and A66 south-facing slips from June 2017. Each of the plotted lines is from a specific weekday with the average shown in red. The graphs show that during peak periods there is a wide variation in travel times, which can more than double at such times of the day.
Figure 2.18: A19 Northbound Journey Times
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Figure 2.19: A19 Southbound Journey Times
Further analysis of the data has been carried out and Figures 2.20 to 2.23 illustrate the percentage of days that experience delays of different magnitudes on the A19 northbound (between A1130 and A139 junctions) and southbound (between A1046 and A66 junctions) as well as the A66 eastbound (between A1130 junction and A19 northbound on slip) and westbound (between A19 northbound off-slip and A19 northbound on-slip). The data indicates:
• Over 70% of all A19 journeys northbound are delayed between 1 and 5+ minutes between 4 and 5pm;
• Around 70% of all A19 journeys southbound are delayed between 1 and 5+ minutes between 4 and 6pm;
• Around 65% of all A19 journeys southbound are delayed between 1 and 5 minutes between 8 and 9am; and
• Around 65% of all A66 EB to A19 NB journeys are delayed between 1 and 5+ minutes between 4 and 6pm.
The observed journey time data for the route between the A66 and A139 junctions (a distance of around 2.5 miles) indicates that northbound on the A19 there is around an average of 1.5 minutes delay at peak times compared with overnight free flow conditions, however there is a lot of variability around that average with the worst observed being 8.3 minutes delay. In the southbound direction there is on average 2 minutes of delay at peak times compared with free flow travel times with again a
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large variation and the worst observed delay was nearly 5.5 minutes over this period. This is supported by Google travel times (see Figures 2.24 and 2.25) which suggest that there is between 1-4 minutes delay southbound at peak times and 1-5 minutes delay northbound at peak times. The lack of growth in peak periods indicates these delays and unreliable journey times are suppressing demand for the crossing with drivers travelling at other times to avoid it.
Figure 2.20: A19 Northbound Delays
Figure 2.21: A19 Southbound Delays
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Figure 2.22: A66 Eastbound Delays
Figure 2.23: A66 Westbound Delays
An analysis of published information also indicates that the Tees Viaduct section is the only link on the A19 trunk road that does not meet Highways England’s “mile per minute” objective for strategic highways at this time.
Trafficmaster data has been used to establish existing observed travel times on the A19 to validate this. This analysis indicates the difference between actual travel times and target times (to meet the “mile per minute” objective) at different times of day, and is summarised in the Table 2.1, for the sections between the A179
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(Sheraton) and the A67 (Crathorne) within the Tees Valley, and that immediately adjacent to the Tees Viaduct, between the A689 and the A174.
Table 2.1: Existing Travel Times and Targets
Section AM Peak (minutes) Inter-Peak (minutes) PM Peak (minutes)
Current Target Current Target Current Target
Sheraton - 19.85 16.90 17.39 16.90 17.91 16.90 Crathorne (S/B)
A689 - A174 9.82 7.80 8.16 7.80 8.73 7.80 (S/B)
Crathorne - 17.10 16.90 16.82 16.90 17.05 16.90 Shearton (N/B)
A174 - A689 7.96 7.80 7.70 7.80 7.85 7.80 (N/B)
The difference in the target time between time periods and directions is a further illustration of the variance in speeds and journey times experienced on the route at present. Overall, these results show that a 60mph average on the Tees Viaduct section of the A19 is not currently achievable at any time of the working day, due to existing network constraints.
The southbound journey time in the AM peak is significantly below the “mile per minute” level, and this is where the positive benefits of the committed A19 RIS1 Norton to Wynyard improvement scheme (see below) would be negated without a complementary intervention on the Tees Viaduct section. Indeed, there is a significant chance that the improvement could actually exacerbate the pinch point at the Tees Viaduct, as a result of future increases in through traffic demand.
The levels of congestion experienced on the SRN and LRN in the vicinity of the existing Tees Viaduct can be illustrated by Google “typical traffic” maps. Figures 2.24 and 2.25 illustrate traffic congestion experienced on a typical Tuesday during the AM (0830) and PM (1730) peak periods.
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Figure 2.24: AM Typical Traffic Congestion (Tuesday, 0830)
Figure 2.25: PM Typical Traffic Congestion (Tuesday, 1730)
This congestion will act as a constraint on future growth aspirations, particularly those sectors more reliant on reliable road transport connections, as well as creating additional issues on the local road network.
The poor road safety record and accessibility issues relating to the existing situation were described previously. The relatively high level of low speed rear “shunt” accidents recorded on the existing Tees Viaduct is likely to be a reflection of the current operational and performance issues.
A more detailed summary of the current problems and challenges was presented in the Client Scheme Requirements Report and the Additional Capacity Issues Workshop Report provided as part of the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) documentation.
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2.3 Step 3: Exploring Options and Strategic Alternatives
2.3.1 Objectives
Based on the foregoing analysis of context and current/future problems, the following objectives have been identified for this improvement scheme:
Economic Growth:
• Support the economic growth objectives of the Northern Powerhouse and the Tees Valley City Region;
• Improve access to the City Region Strategic Centres, STDC site, Enterprise Zone sites and expanding port facilities along the River Tees, including Teesport;
• Support sustainable local residential development in the medium to long term.
Connectivity:
• Improve access to jobs and services for all road users;
• Support the SRN in delivering enhanced national and pan-Northern connectivity;
• Deliver connectivity enhancements for freight movements.
Network Performance:
• Reduce congestion and provide reliable north-south journey times on the A19;
• Improve resilience of the river crossing itself and the wider strategic road network to the impact of events such as roadworks and adverse weather;
• Reduce the number and severity of incidents for all road users.
Quality of Life:
• Minimise adverse impacts on health and environment;
• Reduce the impacts of the route on severance for local communities;
• Provide value for money.
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2.3.2 Options
The assessment of options for improvement was started in 2015 with the establishment of a “Task and Finish” Group, comprising representatives from Highways England, the TVCA, together with Middlesbrough and Stockton Councils. Planned transport infrastructure at the time was taken into consideration in drawing up a long list of potential alignments for a new crossing. The aim of the option generation process was to develop a range of potential solutions to address the need for intervention as identified above.
A description of each of the long list of options can be found below:
• Option A: An eastern alignment over the River Tees between the A66 at Southbank and Teesport;
• Option B: From Riverside Park Road to Cowpen Bewley Road in Billingham;
• Option C: From Haverton Hill Road to Riverside Park Road;
• Option D: From Riverside Park Road to Portrack Interchange;
• Option E: Crossing close to Newport Bridge;
• Option F: Removing non-strategic network traffic from the flyover (i.e. Middlesbrough and Portrack bound traffic) using an alternative lower alignment river crossing;
• Option G: A new crossing to the west of the existing Viaduct between the A66/A19 interchange and Portrack Lane;
• Option H: A strategic bypass of the A19 Tees Viaduct on a lower alignment;
• Option J: Enhanced access to the existing crossing point at Tees Barrage Way;
• Options K + L/K + M: Diversion of A19 to the west of Stockton;
• Option N: Combination of works at Portrack Interchange to remove the bottleneck;
• Option N + E: The combination of works at Portrack, to remove the existing pinch point, with a crossing close to Newport Bridge (Corridor between D and E) to provide additional capacity; and
• Option C + B.
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The long list of options generated and taken through the sifting process is illustrated in Figure 2.26.
Figure 2.26: Location of Long List of Scheme Options
An initial sift of the options was undertaken to eliminate those which did not deliver or had minimal alignment with the scheme objectives identified previously. The options were also tested using the Tees Valley Multi-Modal Model to assess how much relief each option would provide to the existing A19 Tees Viaduct. From this process, four options were identified as meriting further detailed modelling and assessment.
These four options were as follows:
• Option H;
• Option A;
• Option F; and
• Option N + E.
The DfT’s Early Assessment and Sifting Tool (EAST) was utilised to better understand how these four options perform and compare. The EAST assessment aims to identify, at a high level, the nature and extent of all the economic, environmental and social impacts of the options. The use of EAST allows unpromising options to be discarded
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and identified shortlisted options for further development and assessment. To document the process, an Options Assessment Report was prepared, included at Appendix A, providing more detail on the process by which the partners generated and sifted options in order to identify those that are more likely to achieve the scheme objectives.
The EAST process led to two options being subsequently refined and assessed in more detail – known as the Newport Bridge Option and the A19 Tees Viaduct Option, as shown in Figure 2.27.
Figure 2.27: Shortlisted Options
In December 2017 it was decided the Newport Bridge Option should not be progressed as detailed traffic modelling identified that the option caused Newport Interchange to operate beyond its theoretical capacity in the opening year of 2027 and there was no practical or cost effective improvement that could be undertaken to address this. To ensure that the performance of the A19 Tees Viaduct Option was challenged, it was felt important that a new option be selected for it to be compared against.
The resulting review of previously discarded solutions and discussions around potential new routes resulted in an alternative, the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option, being identified. The A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option includes localised widening of the existing Tees Viaduct structure to provide three southbound lanes throughout the length of the Viaduct, in addition to the provision of a new bridge crossing to carry local northbound traffic. This option is illustrated in Figure 2.28.
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Figure 2.28: A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option
Further information is presented in the Options Assessment Report.
2.4 Step 4: Exploring Impacts of Interventions
2.4.1 Main Impacts
Growth in traffic from the base year to the two modelled forecast years is shown to increase journey times and delays in the network, including along the New Tees Crossing scheme extents where increases in journey time are forecast without intervention. The exception to this is along the Norton to Wynyard section of the A19, where delays and journey times reduce due to the A19 Norton to Wynyard Improvements scheme.
Both of the scheme options are forecast to result in a reassignment of traffic onto the A19 from more local routes, as well as a small degree of strategic reassignment from long distance routes such as the A1. The AM and PM peak periods experience the largest degree of reassignment with a smaller impact observed in the inter-peak reflecting the lower degrees of delay in the inter-peak period.
The A19 Tees Viaduct Option significantly reduces traffic flows on the existing crossing in both directions due to forced reassignment of traffic onto the new structure for certain movements. The A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option has a similar impact on the northbound A19 as traffic switches to the new crossing. The existing A19 southbound crossing is able to accommodate additional
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traffic growth due to the extra capacity provided by the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option.
With both options, journey times are forecast to reduce on the A19 over the scheme area compared with the Do Minimum. With the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option in place, journey times in the opening year decrease by around 2.50 minutes in the AM peak and over 2.30 minutes in the PM peak. These reductions become greater in 2042 with 3 minutes and 2.50 minutes saved respectively in the AM and PM peaks. In the northbound direction, nearly 1.5 minutes are saved in both the AM and PM peaks by 2042. The A19 Tees Viaduct Option generally results in similar savings in both AM and PM peaks by 2042.
Of particular note for both options is that, even in 2042, the travel time on the A19 through the scheme area in both directions is forecast to be lower than in 2015 with the scheme in place.
The main conclusions from the Economic Case are as follows:
• Overall the scheme is shown to reduce travel times across the whole network in every scenario with some slight increases in travel distance occurring due to reassignment effects;
• The A19 Tees Viaduct Option delivers higher levels of user benefits than the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option as it includes more additional road capacity, however, the cost associated with this additional capacity is such that the overall return on investment is lower than for the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option; and
• The A19 Tees Viaduct Option generates a safety disbenefit and has a slightly larger environmental disbenefit due to the extra traffic attracted to the scheme area in this option leading to more accidents and greater air and noise emissions in the scheme area.
2.4.2 Wider Impacts
The Economic Case has also established journey reliability and wider benefits exist. As both options provide additional capacity on the A19 over the River Tees this increases journey time reliability, with differences between the options resulting from the differences in traffic flows on the routes experiencing the benefits. Both options therefore support the SRN by providing additional capacity to accommodate the mix of long distance and local trips on the A19 and will offer the opportunity to better manage the interface between the A19, the A66 and the local road network.
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The current congestion problems where the roads on the SRN and the local roads meet at this capacity pinch point will be addressed by either option so that incidents on the local or strategic road networks can be managed without rapid flow breakdown and area-wide congestion.
Furthermore, as both options reduce the generalised cost of travel across the River Tees through a reduction in congestion and journey times this will therefore effectively bring companies and individuals closer together with resultant productivity benefits associated with agglomeration.
These benefits are of particular importance for addressing the economic challenges of the Tees Valley. As noted previously, while some Tees Valley sectors are more productive than their national counterparts, most sectors are less productive than the national average. There is therefore a need to seek to improve business productivity and this applies to every sector and occupation. Higher productivity is also central to reinvestment and the sustainability of employment. This productivity imperative is an underlying theme within the Tees Valley SEP.
Ensuring the Tees Valley has the competitive infrastructure to support a growing economy is a major priority for TVCA and the business community and is one way to address the productivity challenge. The reliable and efficient operation of the A19 is essential for the provision of services and goods in the Tees Valley, enabling local businesses to operate effectively and for local residents to access jobs. Yet there has been no significant increase in crossing capacity for 27 years and the section of the A19 on the existing Tees Viaduct is the currently the busiest in the Tees Valley in terms of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), being used by approximately 7500 HGVs per day (equivalent to 7% of vehicles on the existing Tees Viaduct).
The journey time improvements and enhanced journey time reliability offered by the scheme will maintain and enhance the competitiveness of the Tees Valley economy. The journey time reductions will facilitate a more free-moving and reliable transport network, unlocking the potential for further economic prosperity by improving the viability of planned development and the sustainable investment by employers throughout the area. It will also offer the potential for productivity enhancements through proximity/agglomeration and offer improved labour supply opportunities.
It will have a particular impact on the freight and logistics sector that supports the functioning of many of the large employment sites as well as the ports on the River Tees. The freight and logistics sector is a key enabler in terms of investment, jobs and economic wellbeing. The efficient movement of goods is vitally important for economic success, as it allows the raw materials and finished goods manufactured in the Tees Valley to reach their destinations. Any improvement in efficiency will offer a significant opportunity for economic growth through increases in productivity,
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especially as freight is vulnerable to resilience issues due to operational needs for timeliness of deliveries and the cost of delays.
There are significant freight and logistics traffic flows across Tees Valley serving both local and pan-Northern needs, and this sector is key to realising the economic ambitions of the Tees Valley SEP. There is a need to drive growth of freight traffic through Tees Valley by improving connectivity and enabling operators to offer more cost-effective services.
The Tees Valley is also an important link in the UK’s supply chain, providing an international gateway for the movement of goods in and out of the country and a key hub for the transport of domestic freight. Local port facilities on the River Tees export more than any other port in England and Tees Valley exporters have the highest value per exporter of goods in the country. The Port provides a critical gateway to world markets for the Tees Valley industrial platform, which is one of the most important manufacturing regions in the UK with world leading Chemical and Process industries, Steel Processing and Energy facilities.
Over the last ten years, Teesport has become a major container port serving the wider northern UK hinterland with particularly strong connections to Northern Europe, Baltics and Russia, along with a comprehensive network of connections to the major container ports of Europe. The scheme will therefore support the SRN and the connectivity this provides for local businesses and the freight and logistic sector including the ports on the River Tees.
2.4.3 Measures for Success
Measures for success are the attributes essential for successful delivery of the scheme. They include not only measurable impacts on travel conditions but also consider the strategic fit, value for money and affordability, achievability and commercial aspects of the project. The success factors have been determined through a logic mapping exercise and are closely aligned to the benefits realisation and monitoring and evaluation plans, both included in the Management Case.
2.5 Step 5: Aligning with Wider Local Plans and Objectives
2.5.1 Tees Valley Local Plans
The Local Authorities within the Tees Valley are at various stages of Local Plan preparation. Local Plans have recently been adopted for Redcar and Cleveland (2018), Hartlepool (2018) and Stockton-on-Tees (2019) Borough Councils. Updated Local Plans for Darlington Borough and Middlesbrough Councils are at draft stage. The Local Plans establish a framework for the sustainable economic growth and development over their respective plan periods in part through the identification of
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sites for housing and employment growth to meet identified needs. In terms of housing delivery, the Tees Valley Local Plans aim to provide beyond the 22,000 homes in the period from 2016 to 2026 as set out in the Tees Valley SEP.
The A19 is vitally important for connecting the key centres of the commuting population within the Tees Valley and supporting the wider economic growth ambitions. Housing and employment allocations within adopted and emerging Local Plans will increase the number of trips within the City Region and re-emphasise the importance of the highway network in supporting economic growth within the Tees Valley. Specific developments which will have an impact on the A19 are detailed below.
North of the Tees Viaduct, there are already development related pressures along the A19 due to committed developments and proposed developments at West Stockton, West Hartlepool alongside the creation of a sustainable settlement at Wynyard will increase this pressure. The Local Plans of both Stockton-on-Tees and Hartlepool Borough Councils contain significant housing and employment allocations which will require improvements to the highway network in order to support and enable their development over respective Local Plan periods.
There are large developments and housing allocations coming forward in south and west Middlesbrough which will create a demand for travel on the A174 and A19, and place additional demand on the existing junctions in this area. The continued regeneration of the Greater Middlehaven and Riverside Park areas is also relevant, and significant regeneration will increase demand for crossing capacity on the River Tees.
The Tees Marshalling Yards, immediately west of the Tees Viaduct, are now out of operation and the adopted Stockton-on-Tees Local Plan supports the residential-led regeneration of this site, which would have a further impact on the A19, A66 and other parts of the local road network in the vicinity. New housing developments in Redcar and Cleveland will also generate additional trips on the A174 and the A19, adding to existing issues on these routes.
2.5.2 River Tees Port Expansion
Supporting the ongoing development of the ports of Tees and Hartlepool as a truly international freight gateway for the north of England is vital for the Tees Valley and the Northern economy. Recent investment will take the capacity of Teesport up to 650,000 TEU and the implementation of the Northern Gateway Terminal proposal will further increase the capacity to around 1.1 million TEU. This will be a multi-million pound investment by PD Ports and could create up to 4,000 direct and indirect jobs across the Tees Valley.
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The new £300 million deep-sea container terminal will be located on the site of the existing riverside Teesport Container Terminal (TCT1), the riverside ro-ro berth (Ro- Ro No.3) and the gasification jetty. The channel will be dredged to 14.5m at LAT and the alongside depth to 16m and the terminal will include:
• 1km quay comprising three berths, each capable of taking 12,000 TEU vessels;
• a paved area of 55 ha;
• a new intermodal rail terminal; and
• 365/24/7 operation.
The Northern Gateway Terminal proposal will require improvements to the strategic road and rail network including the parts of the A19, A66 and Northallerton to Teesport rail line.
In the meantime, there is also potential for an intermediate upscaling of container handling capacity at No.1 Quay which was recently refurbished for SSI slab exports. P&O Ferries has increased capacity on its Zeebrugge service to handle an additional 25% units and further shipping lines are expected to expand their Tees service after winning a contract to handle UK imports for a major retailer (80% of which will come through Tees).
2.5.3 Other Large Scale Developments
A range of key developments will be supported by the proposals for a New Tees Crossing as follows:
• Peak Resources – an Australian-based company is establishing a £70 million mineral processing plant at the Wilton International Site. The plant will process ‘rare earth’ minerals neodymium and praseodymium shipped over from the company’s mine in Tanzania for use in the automotive sector and other products including mobile phones and wind turbines. Planning permission was secured in May 2018, with operations expected to commence in mid to late 2020. The construction phase requires up to 420 contractors at the peak of construction and then 140 staff on a permanent basis.
• The Navigator North Tees Terminal is an integrated supply system for petrol and diesel in the North East and a hub for Greenergy’s rail distribution network. The former Petroplus refinery, located at Seal Sands near Middlesbrough, includes a deep-water jetty, and was acquired by Greenergy from Petroplus’ administrators in July 2012 and re-opened as Greenergy North Tees in November 2012. The import terminal has been upgraded to include petrol
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storage as well as diesel. New pipeline links have been created to other storage facilities in the Teesside area and improvements have been made to tanks, road loading and import facilities. A new petrol rail loading facility was installed in 2014 so that petrol can be transported by train to other UK locations for the first time. The result is an integrated and flexible supply terminal for both petrol and diesel that is responsive to changing fuel supply and demand trends and capable of meeting the future road fuel requirements of the North East region as well as the wider UK economy.
• Hitachi opened its new £82 million train manufacturing assembly facility in Newton Aycliffe in September 2015 and K Line begun a direct service the same month using 7,500-unit ro-ro vessels to move rail equipment between Japan and Teesport. The next generation intercity trains are being manufactured by Hitachi in Japan and, of the 790 rail cars expected to be shipped over the next few years, the majority will be on K Line’s ro-ro vessels with 5 to 18 rail cars per shipment on almost monthly basis. This new connection could potentially also allow exporters of project cargoes to access K Line’s global network directly from Teesport. Hitachi has first refusal on adjoining land and it is hoped that its site will expand in the future.
• MGT is currently building a 299MW biomass power station on the Teesport Estate, upriver of Tees Dock. The £650 million Teesport Renewable Energy Plant aims to generate electricity for the equivalent of 600,000 homes using imported wood pellets and chips from sustainable forests, primarily in Europe and the United States shipped in directly to an on-site deep-water berth. The plant was expected to be in operation by 2020 and although MGT Teesside reported in the summer to be fully committed to finishing the project as soon as possible it has faced major delays and made significant redundancies during the construction phase, with the completion date unknown..
• Port Clarence Renewable Energy Plant is a £160 million biomass power station proposed on the north bank of the River Tees on the old Clarence Works. Although construction work started in December 2015 and was due to start operating in 2020, with Stobart Energy proposed to supply around 250,000 tonnes of waste wood fuel per year the owners of Port Clarence Energy exited the contract for the project in May 2019. They remain hopeful of a successful conclusion as an operational power plant and continue construction as soon as possible.
• Dogger Bank Wind Farm off the coast of Tees Valley will commence in January 2020 and will comprise two wind farms, each with a maximum installed capacity of 1.2GW which will connect to the national grid via the existing Lackenby Substation. The development could have the potential to generate around 8 Terawatt hours (TWh) of green power every year, equivalent to the
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electricity used annually by approximately two million British homes. Dogger Bank Teesside A will be 196km from the Tees Valley coast and will cover an area of 560 sq km. Dogger Bank Teesside B is 165km from shore and covers an area of 593 sq km. The developer is Forewind, a consortium comprising four leading international energy companies. Key components that could result in supply chain opportunities for fabrication, operation and maintenance include wind turbines, offshore collector and converter substation platforms, offshore accommodation/helicopter platforms, offshore meteorological stations and cabling.
2.5.4 Middlesbrough Investment Prospectus
The Middlesbrough Investment Prospectus was launched in 2017. It reflects on a number of recent successes, more than £74 million of direct Council investment, and lays out the ambitions and priorities that will take Middlesbrough on to the next phase in its journey. It sets out the Council’s vision to create sustained economic growth, high quality jobs and thriving communities by inspiring, upskilling and connecting Middlesbrough’s people to the new opportunities created.
The prospectus has four main investment priorities as follows:
• Attract city-scale investment that will grow Middlesbrough’s economy and that of the wider Tees Valley City Region;
• Diversify Middlesbrough’s town centre economy by increasing the proportion of commercial, leisure, cultural and food and beverage floor space;
• Generate significant income through a targeted programme of housebuilding and business creation; and
• Inspire, upskill and connect Middlesbrough’s people to the new opportunities that arise.
Key sites identified for continued and future investment include Middlehaven (including Boho 10, a £250 million mixed use development launched in October 2019), Centre Square, the railway station and historic core, University Quarter, Teesside Media and Innovation Village as well as other business enterprise space. The Investment Prospectus also identifies the importance of building modern, high quality housing to retain and grow its population as a key driver in wealth generation and the delivery of good quality public services.
The provision of a new crossing of the River Tees will support the projects outlined within the Investment Prospectus, enhancing local and strategic connectivity in
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support of sustained economic growth and prosperity. The Investment Prospectus is due to be refreshed later in 2019.
2.5.5 Stockton-on-Tees Economic Strategy 2017-2032
This Economic Strategy sets out Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council’s growth ambitions over the next fifteen years. The Vision is set out below and seeks to position the strategy as a framework for rebalancing the local and regional economy in support of national objectives.
The businesses and people of Stockton-on-Tees are part of a thriving and productive Tees Valley economy; a City Region that is driving economic growth across northern and national economies
The vision is supported by three main objectives as follows:
• Objective 1: Have a successful business base where existing companies have experienced sustainable growth and new businesses have been created and attracted;
• Objective 2: Provide sufficient sites and premises in vibrant, connected and distinctive places that businesses are attracted to and people choose to live, work and play; and
• Objective 3: Ensure that people have the opportunity to learn/ train and gain the appropriate level of skills to maximise the employment opportunities available in the economy.
Objective 2 is of most relevance, underlining the importance of good connectivity for attracting businesses and people to live and work in the Borough. In particular, the strategy identifies the following transport and infrastructure elements that are of key importance to deliver the vision:
• All modes of strategic connectivity within and outside Stockton-on-Tees stimulate and support economic growth;
• Resilience has been built and investment secured into the transport and infrastructure networks to respond to economic growth requirements;
• Northern and national transport plans take account of local transport priorities;
• Transport improvements provide access to attractive investment opportunities at strategic employment locations; and
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• Communications infrastructure supports economic and housing growth.
A new crossing of the River Tees is one element that support all of these requirements in support of economic growth and prosperity for the Borough of Stockton-on-Tees and the wider Tees Valley.
2.5.6 Other Transport Proposals
There are a number of other transport proposals that are of relevance to this scheme – these are summarised in the following paragraphs.
A19 Norton to Wynyard
The scheme will benefit local residents and businesses by relieving congestion, improving journey time reliability and network resilience. Replacement of the road surface will also reduce road traffic noise. The scheme will promote growth in the local economy and local area by bringing forward developments in the Tees Valley.
The scheme is currently programmed to commence construction in 2020 and be completed by 2022.
The issues of network unreliability and congestion previously described will only increase with the opening of the Norton-Wynyard improvement scheme, planned for implementation as part of Highways England’s first Road Investment Strategy (RIS1), meaning that the full benefits of this significant expenditure on the route may not be realised.
The Norton to Wynyard scheme will improve the flow of traffic on this section of the A19 by increasing the section between the A1027 and the A689 to three lanes wide in each direction, with the existing speed limit of 70mph retained. The existing section of concrete carriageway will be replaced with low noise surfacing and any current Public Rights of Way including footbridges and underpasses will either be maintained or replaced.
Implementation of this scheme may exacerbate issues on the Tees Viaduct section as an increase in southbound traffic demand encounters the existing constraints.
It is worth noting that, in developing the A19 Norton to Wynyard scheme, Highways England has undertaken sensitivity tests with and without a possible new Tees Crossing and this has illustrated the value for money of the A19 Norton to Wynyard scheme increases with the new strategic crossing capacity in place.
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Portrack Relief Road
It is recognised that to open up development opportunities within Stockton and Middlesbrough within the vicinity of the existing Tees Viaduct, a package of proposals needs to be developed and delivered which will embrace a combination of improvements and management of the primary road infrastructure, additional secondary road infrastructure, improvements to public transport and complementary traffic management measures.
This scheme would include the creation of a new 1.3km highway link by utilising the former Billingham Beck branch railway between Marston Road and the A1032 Newport Bridge Approach Road. It is seen as a fundamental part of any option taken forward for a new strategic road crossing of the River Tees and should be incorporated within one overall scheme package for ongoing design and delivery. It has therefore been included in the assessment of the two options within the economic and financial case of this business case report.
A1 and A19 Technology Enhancements
This scheme includes the implementation of new technology, bringing the equipment on the A19 to the standard of motorways, including detection loops, CCTV cameras and variable message signs to provide better information for drivers and active traffic management. It was announced in October 2017 that the scheme has been paused for further review and consideration as part of future RIS planning process – this is to ensure the scheme achieves an acceptable return on investment.
A66 East-West Connections
The TVCA is also considering the means of providing improved connections between the A1(M) and the A66 to the north west of Darlington. Development funding for the scheme was granted by DfT in November 2016, and an Enhanced SOBC is currently in preparation.
As a pre-cursor, the A66 & A689 Tees Valley Strategic Study Stage 0.2 Summary Report – Option Assessment was prepared on behalf of Highways England and TVCA in 2016. The options the report has identified for further consideration along the A66 east-west corridor are as follows:
• Improvements to the existing A66 to the south and east of Darlington;
• A new link around the north of Darlington, from Junction 59 of the A1(M) to the A66/A1150 roundabout;
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• Improvements to the existing A66 around the south and west of Stockton, particularly between the Elton Interchange and the junction with the A135 (1835 Way); and
• Improvements to key junctions on the A66 local road along the route into Teesport, particularly the A66/A171 roundabout at Cargo Fleet and the A66/A1053 Tees Dock Road roundabout. Middlesbrough Council has secured £2.95 million of National Productivity Investment Fund (NPIF) funding for the introduction of a 'throughabout' at the A66/A171 junction, which is currently under construction and due to open to traffic in Spring 2020.
The A66 proposals do not conflict with those for the A19 as the former are designed to improve east-west movements primarily, but also to build in resilience to both the A1 and A19 regional strategic north-south corridors, by providing an alternative to the A19 for northbound traffic from eastern part of the Tees Valley City Region.
Given the interaction between the A19 and the A66 immediately south of the existing Tees Viaduct, it will be important to ensure that these improvements dovetail with the improvement scheme promoted for the A19. Furthermore, improvements proposed for both corridors (A19 and A66) will assist in addressing air quality concerns on the A66 through Middlesbrough by improving the flow of traffic through the A19/A66 interchange.
This section of the A66, that has been identified by the DfT as part of its Major Road Network (December 2018), carries up to 90,000 vehicles per average weekday, and westbound traffic is regularly delayed due to congestion associated with the existing A19 Tees Viaduct.
2.6 Step 6: Considering Wider Evidence and Stakeholder Views
2.6.1 Stakeholder Views
Consultation in relation to the scheme has been considered since an early stage in its development. As part of the A66 & A689 Strategic Study, stakeholder workshops were undertaken so as to capture information, develop a fuller understanding of the day to day operation of the network and consider the range of infrastructure proposals that could address the issues identified.
In preparing the refresh of the Tees Valley SEP, consultation was undertaken with local stakeholders (via business engagement events) to ascertain their views in relation improving east-west transport connectivity within the Tees Valley between the A1(M) and the port facilities along the River Tees, including Teesport. These sessions illustrated support for improvements along the A66, as shown by its specific inclusion within the Transport and Infrastructure section of the refreshed Plan.
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In addition, the provision of a new crossing of the River Tees is included in the priorities identified in the Consultation Draft Tees Valley STP, which was published in August 2019, with public consultation events undertaken during September 2019.
An initial public information exercise in accordance with Highways England’s established approach within their PCF took place across the Tees Valley in July 2017, with a launch event supplemented by a series of exhibitions in all five local authority areas. These events attracted approximately 120 visitors and a further series of local meetings were organised to enable more detail to be provided to local residents and seek information and issues. Over two thirds (68.5%) of respondents were in favour of the scheme, and there was the perception that the scheme would alleviate the congestion issues currently experienced in the local area.
A further public consultation exercise on the two shortlisted options took place in March 2019, with a further launch events and four local consultation events in Stockton, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool and Redcar, to ensure that the views of the local population and businesses were considered and incorporated into the options. A virtual consultation space was also developed to explain the proposals, allowing people to access scheme details and provide comment without having to psychically attend a particular event. Copies of the documents were also made available in municipal buildings across Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough, Redcar and Cleveland and Stockton-on-Tees throughout the consultation period, which ran from 26 March until 17 May 2019.
1,247 people visited the four public consultation events, over 5,500 people visited the virtual consultation space and 301 completed questionnaires were received. A full report on the most recent public consultation exercise can be found in Appendix B.
Overall the response to the consultation was extremely positive, with 84% of the consultees agreeing with the need for additional road capacity over the River Tees both to ease congestion and improve safety. Over 70% of the respondents to the questionnaire favoured the likely preferred route option and as 76% of respondents were satisfied that they had been provided with sufficient information on which to base their response.
Of those that did not support the provision of additional road capacity across the River Tees, the main reasons given were in relation to potential environmental impacts and also a preference for alternative routes that were ruled out earlier in the option assessment process.
Feedback from the business community in the Tees Valley, including from businesses with close ties to the port and those within the South Tees Development Corporation site. As part of the 2019 consultation exercise, responses were received from 29 key business and education providers from across the Tees Valley – these were all in
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support of the project, with many highlighting the vital role a proposed new crossing would play in improving the future economic success of the City Region.
2.6.2 Wider Policy Alignment
The major national, regional and local policy priorities are summarised below with a brief commentary on how this improvement scheme is aligned with these priorities. The policy alignment is summarised by Table 2.2.
Table 2.2: Summary of Policy Alignment
Policy Alignment
Tees DfT Highways TfN’s Scheme Objectives Valley SEP, Transport England’s Strategic STP and Investment Route Transport Investment Strategy Strategy Plan Plan Economy
Support the economic growth objectives of the Northern Powerhouse ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ and the Tees Valley City Region
Improve access to the City Region Strategic Centres, STDC site, Enterprise ✓ ✓ ✓ Zone sites and port facilities along the River Tees
Support sustainable local residential ✓ ✓ ✓ development
Economy
Improve access to jobs and services for ✓ ✓ ✓ all road users
Support the SRN in delivering enhanced ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ national and pan-Northern connectivity
Deliver connectivity enhancements for ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ freight movements
Network Performance
Reduce congestion and provide reliable ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ north-south journey times on the A19
Improve resilience of the river crossing itself and the wider strategic road ✓ ✓ network to the impact of events
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Policy Alignment
Tees DfT Highways TfN’s Scheme Objectives Valley SEP, Transport England’s Strategic STP and Investment Route Transport Investment Strategy Strategy Plan Plan
Reduce the number and severity of ✓ incidents/accidents for all road users
Quality of Life
Minimise adverse impacts on health and ✓ environment
Reduce the severance impacts of the ✓ route on local communities
Provide value for money ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
National
Government’s Transport Investment Strategy
The Transport Investment Strategy (DfT, July 2017) sets out how the Government will build on the progress made to date and through future investment decisions will respond realistically and pragmatically to today’s challenges, driving progress towards fulfilling the aims of the Industrial Strategy whilst putting the travelling public at the heart of the decisions that are made.
The Strategy outlines four main goals and guiding principles that will be considered. Through the Strategy, investment will be made in the transport network in different ways, most fundamentally by addressing the network’s core capability – its condition, capacity and connectivity – but also improving the user experience and adapting the network to safeguard the environment and health.
Alignment: This improvement scheme has an excellent fit with the Transport Investment Strategy objectives for strategic roads and economic growth. It supports and aligns with the four main goals and will deliver:
1) A more reliable, less congested, and better connected transport network;
2) Support productivity and respond to local growth priorities;
3) Enhance global competitiveness;
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4) Support the creation of new housing.
The Strategy also recognises the crucial role that ports and airports play in the UK economy, both of which are also key elements of the Tees Valley economy, and both of which will be supported by this improvement scheme.
Highways England Route Strategy
The London to Scotland East Route Strategy (Highways England, March 2017) provides a high level view of the current performance of the strategic road network, as well as issues perceived by stakeholders that affect the network. The series of route strategies are one of the key components of research required for developing the RIS for Highways England.
The Route Strategy identifies the capacity constraints at the A19 Tees Crossing as a factor in causing delays and safety issues and acknowledges that it is difficult to manage incidents arising, partly due to a lack of technology on the route, as shown in Figure 2.29.
Figure 2.29: London to Scotland East Route Strategy Identified Issues
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Alignment: This improvement scheme will help address a number of existing challenges and will contribute to achieving the objectives for the RIS, including:
• A safe and serviceable network;
• More free-flowing network;
• Supporting economic growth;
• An improved environment;
• A more accessible and integrated network.
The Route Strategy acknowledges that a business case for this improvement scheme is being prepared, in consultation with Highways England.
Regional
TfN’s Strategic Transport Plan
TfN’s Strategic Transport Plan and accompanying initial Investment Programme (February 2019) set out the priorities for transport infrastructure investment for the next 30 years (2020-2050). The Strategic Transport Plan is a statutory document, allowing TfN and its Partners to take a leading role in developing the case for investment in the North.
The Investment Programme is built up from a series of TfN’s work programmes, including the Rail North Long Term Rail Strategy, the work done to date on Northern Powerhouse Rail and Integrated and Smart Travel, and a series of Strategic Development Corridors (SDCs) that have been identified by the most recent evidence. It comprises TfN’s advice to the Government on the long term, multimodal priorities for enhanced pan-Northern connectivity. The Plan will enable TfN and its Partners to work with Government and delivery partners to secure funding and delivery of the right schemes at the right time, also providing certainty for local transport authorities to plan complementary investment.
The seven prioritised SDCs identified in the Strategic Transport Plan each represent strategic geographical and economic areas where evidence indicates delivery of transformational growth is dependent on bringing forward major road and rail investment. The SDCs have been developed to represent where most of the largest gaps between demand and performance currently exist, and where there is likely to be the greatest economic potential to improve connectivity and the economic interaction between the existing key economic clusters and assets of the North and facilitate potential future clusters in other locations. Investment considered within
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the context of these corridors is focused on interventions that will benefit the whole of the North. The Strategic Development Corridors are shown in Figure 2.30.
Figure 2.30: TfN’s Strategic Development Corridors
Alignment: It is noted within the Strategic Transport Plan that the major north- south routes of the A1 and A19 must provide a consistent level of service and resilience to meet the needs of important economic centres they link and the strategic journeys they facilitate. The scheme is recognised as a pan-Northern objective falling within the Yorkshire to Scotland and Connecting the Energy
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Coasts Strategic Development Corridors. It is identified in the Investment Programme for delivery by 2027 and has been included within the reference case within the Strategic Programme Outline Case (February 2019) for the Connecting the Energy Coasts Strategic Development Corridor.
Local
Tees Valley SEP and Investment Plan (2019-2029)
The Tees Valley SEP was refreshed to coincide with the establishment of the TVCA. The new Plan sets out the growth ambitions and priorities for the Tees Valley over the next ten years to 2026 and provides a framework for economic development activities. The priorities in the refreshed SEP are grouped into six building blocks which reflect the main challenges, areas of market failure and opportunities for the Tees Valley.
To date, the Tees Valley has identified four strategic transport priorities within the City Region that will deliver pan-Northern benefits, all of which can be delivered over the lifetime of the SEP.
The Investment Plan sets out the Tees Valley’s investment strategy for the period 2019 – 2029 and is focused around prioritised across six growth generating themes. The ten year planning figure used in this Investment Plan is £588.2 million, which is estimated to have a total impact of supporting 16,875 direct jobs and an additional £1,480 million of additional GVA.
Alignment: An additional crossing of the River Tees is one of the four identified strategic transport priorities. It is identified as being required in order to enhance access to Enterprise Zone locations and ensuring that the last section of the A19 expressway will meet the “mile per minute” objective for expressways. It is included within the Investment Plan, noting that whilst national funding to deliver the scheme, TVCA funding will be used to prepare the development works required to access national funding, and/or represent a local contribution alongside national funds.
Tees Valley Consultation Draft STP
The consultation draft STP was published in Summer 2019 alongside a series of supporting implementation plans. The plan includes a framework for setting out the main interventions needed based on six themes, which are closely linked together.
The ‘Major Roads’ theme identifies that the A19 has been identified as a new high quality strategic route – an “expressway” – by Highways England, yet there remains a pinch point at the Tees Viaduct, where delays regularly occur because there are too few alternative ways to cross the River Tees.
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It highlights that the A19 is the main north-south artery through the Tees Valley and needs to be improved to support the growth that is anticipated. It goes on to identify that a new major road crossing of the River Tees will ensure that the A19 expressway will meet the “mile per minute” objective for the SRN, address current issues with journey times and delays, as well as realising the full benefit of the committed A19 Norton to Wynyard widening scheme.
Alignment: A new Tees Crossing is identified within the Consultation Draft STP as an key intervention to support the economic growth identified in the SEP by delivering enhanced connectivity within the Tees Valley and to/from the rest of the country to facilitate access to global markets and support inward investment.
South Tees Development Corporation
The STDC site is the first Mayoral Development Corporation outside London. It has been set up to promote the economic growth and commercial development of Tees Valley by converting assets in the South Tees area into opportunities for business investment and economic growth.
The STDC area covers approximately 4,500 acres of land to the south of the River Tees, in the Borough of Redcar and Cleveland, and includes former SSI steelworks site as well as other industrial assets. The area benefits from river access and includes the deep-water port of Teesport, England’s largest exporting port.
The purpose of the STDC is to further the economic development of the area through physical regeneration, social regeneration and environmental regeneration so that it becomes a major contributor to the Tees Valley economy, bringing the SSI site, and other underutilised land in the area, back in to economic use. By attracting private sector investment the STDC will secure additional, high quality jobs for the people of Tees Valley and provide a safe environment for the workforce.
A draft masterplan has been developed that aims to provide a flexible framework for achieving the socio-economic ambitions for the regeneration of the South Tees area, realising that a long timeframe is necessary for the successful implementation of the plan for economic growth in South Tees and the wider Tees Valley area. The details and scale of the regeneration proposals can be viewed at: https://www.southteesdc.com.
A £1 million roundabout scheme has recently been completed to open up a vital access to part of the South Tees Development Corporation site and was funded by the Local Growth Fund through the TVCA.
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Alignment: The scheme will support improved connections to the STDC site, which will enable industrial investment that will create approximately 20,000 new jobs and contribute £1 billion per annum into the UK economy overall. Supporting this vision, and the impact it will have on rebalancing the UK economy, through strategic transport improvements will be a key element in its success.
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3 The Economic Case
This chapter of the OBC assesses options to identify all their impacts, and the resulting value for money. The economic, environmental, social and distributional impacts are all examined, using qualitative, quantitative and monetised information to determine the extent to which the scheme’s benefits outweigh its costs.
3.1 Options Appraised
A comprehensive and robust process was adopted for the generation and shortlisting of options for the scheme, as set out in the Options Assessment Report and summarised in the Strategic Case.
From the initial long list of options, four were identified for further consideration and this led to two options being subsequently refined and assessed in more detail – the Newport Bridge Option and the A19 Tees Viaduct Option.
Further appraisal of these options was undertaken and this identified that the Newport Bridge option is not viable as it would cause the Newport Interchange to operate beyond its theoretical capacity in the opening year of 2027, causing delays during peak periods within the interchange and also on the A66 mainline. No practical or cost effective solution to improve the interchange was identified.
The resulting review of previously discarded solutions and discussions around potential new routes resulted in an alternative, called the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option being identified.
The economic and environmental appraisal of the following two options is therefore presented within this section of the OBC and also included within the Financial Case:
• A19 Tees Viaduct Option; and
• A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option.
It should be noted that both options include the Portrack Relief Road and improvements on the A66 between the A19 and Teesside Park junctions as the previous PCF Stage 1 work confirmed that inclusion of these elements (and associated costs) improves the performance and the value for money of the overall scheme.
3.2 Methodology and Assumptions
The economic assessment of the scheme has been undertaken in accordance with current Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), including:
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• TAG Unit A1 cost-benefit analysis;
• TAG Unit A2 economic impacts;
• TAG Unit A3 environmental impacts; and
• TAG Unit A4 social and distributional impacts.
The methodology is based on the DfT Value for Money Framework (July 2017) and follows the process described in the Appraisal Specification Report, included at Appendix C.
The economic appraisal has included the following:
• Transport Economic Efficiency – for assessing travel time and vehicle operating cost benefits (evaluated using TUBA version 1.9.9);
• Impact on Road Users during construction (evaluated using SATURN and TUBA);
• Traffic Safety – for assessing the benefits of reduction in accidents (evaluated using COBALT with DfT parameter set 2018-1); and
• Journey Time Reliability (evaluated using the WebTAG standard deviation-based approach).
An initial benefit : cost ratio (BCR) is calculated that includes the monetised noise, air quality and greenhouse gas impacts of the scheme. Other monetarised benefits – reliability and resilience impacts – are then taken into consideration, producing an adjusted present value of benefits (PVB), which is used to calculate an adjusted BCR.
The A19 Norton to Wynyard Improvements model was used as the basis of the assessment of the New Tees Crossing scheme in the PCF Stage 1 work. The actual Norton to Wynyard scheme has been included in the Do Minimum for the PCF Stage 2 work to ensure the benefits for the committed improvements are not included in the assessment of the New Tees Crossing scheme. However, the two schemes are complementary and additional benefits, particularly for southbound traffic, accrue to the Norton to Wynyard scheme if a new crossing is delivered, as identified in the Strategic Case.
As part of the PCF Stage 2 work, the base model has been recalibrated and revalidated using the original dataset but with a focus of further improving the representation of base year traffic conditions through the scheme area. The original base model was focussed on the area of the Norton to Wynyard scheme and whilst it achieved TAG calibration and validation criteria in the area for the New Tees Crossing
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scheme, further calibration of the base model in the scheme area has now be undertaken. This recalibration exercise was carried out in Autumn 2018 with ppk/ppm values from May 2018 and SATURN version 11.3. A further calibration and validation check has been carried out using the November 2018 ppk/ppm values and SATURN version 11.4.
The development of the model is described in the New Tees Crossing PCF Stage 2 Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report (and its associated appendices), included at Appendix D.
The modelled assessment periods are:
• Morning Peak Hour (0800-0900);
• Inter-Peak Hour (average hour between 1000 and 1600); and
• Evening Peak Hour (1700-1800).
The following vehicle types and user classes are modelled:
• UC1: Car - Commuting, Business and Other;
• UC2: LGV - Business;
• UC3: HGV - Business.
3.3 Present Value of Costs
3.3.1 Investment Costs
The cost of the proposed scheme has been estimated at 2016 (Q1) factor prices, as set out in detail in the Financial Case. These estimates include all costs associated with scheme preparation and construction. The costs presented in the Financial Case include real cost adjustments and an allowance for risk, in the form of a Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA).
For the purposes of the economic assessment, and in line with the guidance in TAG Unit A1.2, an optimism bias of 15% has been applied to these costs (with a 25% allowance for the Portrack Relief Road element given the lack of a formal QRA for this element). This is the recommended uplift for a fixed road link at OBC stage. The purpose of optimism bias is to ensure that the benefit : cost analysis is robust. However, it is important to note that optimism bias is only applied to costs in the economic assessment and is not included in the forecast outturn costs in the Financial Case.
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The 2016 costs were converted to outturn costs and then converted to market prices using the TAG market price adjustment factor of 1.19 and then to a 2010 price base using the GDP deflator series available in the TAG databook. Finally, the costs were converted to a present value of costs (PVC) by discounting to 2010 using the TAG discount rates.
The resulting PVC for the different options is shown in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Present Value of Costs
Option Present Value of Costs (PVC) (£) Scheme Elements A19 Tees Viaduct Option (excluding Portrack 231,145,806 Relief Road)
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement 181,373,701 Option (excluding Portrack Relief Road)
Portrack Relief Road 8,188,509 Total Scheme Costs A19 Tees Viaduct Option (including Portrack 239,334,314 Relief Road)
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement 189,562,210 Option (including Portrack Relief Road)
3.3.2 Operational and Maintenance Costs
At this stage, operation and maintenance cost impacts have not been assessed. However, there is evidence to suggest that the existing Tees Viaduct and Newport Bridge structures will require significant maintenance in the short to medium term. The delivery of the New Tees Crossing scheme will reduce traffic on the latter structure in particular and therefore potentially defer or reduce the maintenance cost requirements. However, there will be costs associated with maintaining any new infrastructure provided.
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3.4 Present Value of Benefits
3.4.1 Scheme Transport User Benefits
User benefits have been assessed using the DfT’s Transport Users Benefit Appraisal (TUBA) software, an industry-standard method of assessing economic benefits from transport schemes, in accordance with guidelines set out in TAG Unit A1. TUBA calculates the benefits related to journey time savings, vehicle operating cost savings and fuel tax revenue.
The TUBA assessment was carried out for the two scheme options for the Core Scenario along with three traffic growth sensitivity tests - Low Growth, High Growth and With STDC Site scenarios.
Annualisation factors for the three modelled time periods have been calculated as detailed in Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report. Scheme appraisal was undertaken for a 60 year horizon period from opening, in accordance with HM Treasury’s Green Book.
The scheme related transport user benefits for the options are presented in Table 3.2.
Table 3.2: Transport User Benefits (Travel Time and Vehicle Operating Costs)
Option Transport User Benefits (£)
A19 Tees Viaduct Option 229,610,375
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement 204,579,375 Option
The composition of the Transport User Benefits and additional information on the assumptions used are set out in Appendix O of the Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report.
3.4.2 Construction and Maintenance Delays
An assessment of the likely traffic management measures required during construction of the scheme was undertaken as part of the Tier 1 contractor’s buildability review. The main elements of traffic management involve lane closures, narrow lanes, reduced speed limits and slip road closures. These elements have been allocated to the different phases of the construction programme to produce a programme of traffic management measures for the construction period from April 2025 to December 2027.
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For the purpose of modelling the construction delays, the detailed programme has been simplified into five distinct phases each of which has different traffic management measures.
The traffic management elements have been coded into the Do Minimum 2027 SATURN model by changing the characteristics of the links in the model to reflect the traffic management. Five separate versions of the model have been produced to the reflect the five phases. By running these models in comparison with the Do Minimum model without any traffic management measures, the delays associated with each phase of the works can be quantified. Note that no variable demand modelling (VDM) is undertaken as the durations of the phases are not considered long enough to result in a significant VDM response.
These models are then used to run a one year TUBA to quantify the PVB disbenefit of each of the five phases of construction. These one year PVB results are then adjusted to reflect the number of months covered by the relevant phase and then all combined to give the total disbenefit due to construction. Note that the impact of construction of both options is assumed to be the same.
Details of the maintenance schedule with and without the two options has not been produced and so the traffic delay impact has not been quantified. However, the increased capacity, and therefore network resilience, provided by the additional crossing capacity will reduce delays during maintenance compared to the ‘Without Scheme’ scenario.
Table 3.3: Construction Delay Impacts
Option Construction Delay Impacts (£)
Both Options -17,283,000
3.4.3 Safety Benefits
The safety assessment of the proposed scheme options was completed using the DfTs COBALT software, developed by DfT to undertake the assessment of a schemes impact on collisions to support economic appraisal. Version 2013.2 of COBALT was used with the 2018-1 parameters file, both downloaded in May 2019 from the DfT website.
COBALT assesses the safety impacts of road schemes using detailed inputs of road links and road junctions that would be affected by the scheme. Additional model inputs include collision rates and costs and forecast traffic volumes by link and junction.
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The safety assessment is based on a comparison of collisions by severity and associated costs across an identified network in ‘Without Scheme’ and ‘With Scheme’ scenarios.
The COBALT network was formed from the simulation sections of a SATURN traffic model which covered a wider geographical area than would likely be meaningful by the proposed New Tees Crossing scheme. The forecast change in traffic flows associated with the assessed scenarios and years were used to rationalise the links used in the COBALT network. All SATURN links that form part of the buffer network were also excluded.
Criteria for determining the links to include in the COBALT model were identified as those having an Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) change of 10% and a Do Minimum flow of over 2,000. These criteria were informed by the change in collisions resulting from a (0.10 x 2000) 200 vehicle change in AADT being approximately two collisions over the 60 year appraisal period. This was chosen based on the need to develop a practicable network size and to also ensure that links where there was a meaningful change were incorporated.
Links that were not important local distributors, did not link core elements of the network, or were located a significant distance away from the core of the network were omitted from further assessment. This was again to develop a practicable network size and to omit any potential model ‘noise’ on local links that in practice would be unlikely to experience a meaningful change in traffic flow.
Observed collision data between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2017 were obtained from Stats19. Collisions for each link and were captured for each Do Minimum link using GIS allowing for collision rates to be calculated based on link type and traffic volume. The average collision rate by link type across the modelled network was somewhat higher than COBALT defaults. Since much of the scheme is entirely new, it was not considered appropriate to use existing collision rates that are based on a road network constructed a relatively long time ago and on a congested network that the scheme is seeking to alleviate. Consequently, the default COBALT parameters were adopted.
Table 3.4 summarises the results of the COBALT analysis.
The safety assessment indicates that the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option is forecast to generate a benefit while the A19 Tees Viaduct Option is forecast to generate a disbenefit over the 60 year appraisal period. In the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option there is a reduction of 87 collisions (approximately 1.5 collisions per year) and with the A19 Tees Viaduct Option, an increase of 128 collisions (approximately 2.1 collisions per year).
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Table 3.4: Forecast Collision Savings and Safety Benefits
Option Collisions Saved PVB (£m) *
A19 Tees Viaduct Option -128 -5,929.5
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity 87 2,745.1 Enhancement Option
* Negative values denote a disbenefit
3.4.4 Reliability Benefits
Highways England has a spreadsheet-based tool called MyRIAD which is designed to assess changes in incident delays and travel time variability changes on inter urban motorways and dual carriageways. However, on advice from the developers of the MyRIAD software it is not applicable to situations where a new link is being provided (as is the case with the New Tees Crossing scheme).
The TAG Unit A1.3 (section 6.3) urban road approach has therefore been applied but with the additional level of detail of using observed data to derive journey time standard deviations rather than the proxy approach described in TAG.
Journey time data for the following four routes has been obtained from Highways England’s online journey time database for weekdays from neutral months between June 2017 and May 2018:
• A19 northbound from Mandale (A1130) and A139 junctions;
• A19 southbound from Norton (A1027) south facing slips to south of the A19/A66 Interchange;
• A66 eastbound from A1130 to A19 northbound on-slip; and
• A66 westbound to A19 northbound slip road.
This data has been used to calculate the standard deviation in journey time for each hour of the day on each of these routes. By introducing additional capacity the schemes are assumed to reduce the journey time variability (and therefore standard deviation) to current inter-peak levels for those time periods where the variability is greater than the inter-peak (typically the AM and PM peaks).
Combining the saving in standard deviation of travel time with the forecast traffic flows from the SATURN model gives an overall reliability saving due to the scheme. This in turn is monetised using TAG values of time and the TAG recommended value of journey time reliability (0.4).
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In accordance with TAG, these benefits are not included in the Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits table but are included in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST) and in the adjusted BCR.
The results of the assessment are presented in Table 3.5.
Table 3.5: Forecast Hours Saved and Reliability Benefits
Option Hours Saved PVB (£m)
A19 Tees Viaduct Option 14,383,507 31.75
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity 14,066,906 31.06 Enhancement Option
It is assumed that both options will have the same impact on journey time reliability as both provide additional capacity on the A19 over the River Tees. The difference in the results is driven by the differences in traffic flows on the routes experiencing the benefits. It should be noted that this approach results in a conservative approximation of the reliability benefits as no account is taken of the worsening of reliability over time with increased traffic volumes.
3.4.5 Wider Benefits
Transport schemes have impacts and benefits beyond their direct effects on users. In determining the case for investment in transport, such impacts need to be considered alongside other assessments. Collectively these are known as wider impacts. The methodology adopted to assess these wider impacts is in line with guidance in TAG Unit A2-1. The wider impacts assessment is focused on the following three areas:
• Agglomeration – by reducing journey times, the relative agglomeration of business in this area will increase – this will have a direct impact on the productivity arising from static clustering and GDP of the UK and is a central element to the estimation of wider impacts;
• Output change in imperfectly competitive markets – a reduction in the costs of transport allows businesses to operate more efficiently, improves their output and intensity of business practices, and hence generates benefits; and
• Labour supply impacts – this captures tax revenues arising from the welfare effects to the UK economy of having a wider human resource pool; as travel costs are reduced, more workers will be attracted to the workplace from either new areas accessible by the scheme or areas that are already connected receiving an improved service.
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DfT’s WITA (Wider Impacts in Transport Appraisal) software v2.0 has been used to undertake the wider impact analysis of the NTC schemes.
The results are presented in Table 3.6.
Table 3.6: Wider Impacts Benefits
Option PVB (£m)
A19 Tees Viaduct Option 94.80
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity 80.80 Enhancement Option
3.5 Environmental Impacts
This section summarises the forecast environmental impacts of the proposed scheme. The impacts are discussed in more detail in the Environmental Assessment Report included at Appendix E.
Several environmental impacts are assessed through the use of TAG workbooks. These assessed environmental impacts are:
• Noise;
• Air quality;
• Greenhouse gases;
• Landscape/Townscape;
• Historic environment;
• Biodiversity; and
• Water environment.
3.5.1 Noise
As noted in TAG Unit A3, there is growing evidence on the links between environmental noise and health outcomes. Defra has produced guidance on assessing the impacts of transport-related noise from different sources including road schemes and has used research to establish monetary valuation techniques to enable decision-
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makers to assess the relative importance of the noise impacts of a transport option in relation to other impacts currently measured in monetary terms.
The TAG Noise Workbook has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the noise related monetary impact of the scheme. The Workbook can be found at Appendix F, supported by the information contained in the Environmental Assessment Report.
The net present value (NPV) of the change in noise for both options is presented in Table 3.7 alongside a short commentary of the specific impacts.
Table 3.7: Monetary Valuation of Noise Impacts
Option Monetary Valuation of Noise Impacts (£m Comments NPV)
This option is predicted to increase road traffic noise levels directly and indirectly at a number of residential receptors. However, most of these noise increases are relatively small (the largest increase is 2.6dB). The receptors that are expected to experience the A19 Tees Viaduct largest change in noise directly from the proposed -3.02 Option scheme are located near the existing A19; to the south of the A139, to the eastern side of the A19/A66 interchange (north of the A66) and to the south east around Whinney Banks. Some of these receptors are located within Noise Important Areas. There are also direct increases in road traffic noise at receptors close to the proposed Portrack Relief Road.
This option is predicted to increase road traffic noise levels directly and indirectly at a number of residential receptors. However, most of these noise increases are relatively small (the largest increase is 2.1dB).
A19 Tees Viaduct The receptors that are expected to experience the Capacity largest change in noise directly from the proposed -2.94 Enhancement scheme are located near the existing A19; to the Option south of the A139, to the eastern side of the A19/A66 interchange (north of the A66) and to the south east around Whinney Banks. Some of these receptors are located within Noise Important Areas. There are also direct increases in road traffic noise at receptors close to the proposed Portrack Relief Road.
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3.5.2 Air Quality
A detailed assessment has been undertaken to establish the potential effects of the three options on local air quality. The main pollutants of concern that have been
assessed are oxides of nitrogen (NOx), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5).
The TAG Local Air Quality Workbook, Air Quality Sensitivity Workbook, and Air Quality Valuation Workbook has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the air quality impacts and their monetary valuation. The Workbooks can be found at Appendix F.
The NPV of the change in air quality for both options is presented in Table 3.8 alongside a short commentary of the specific impacts.
Table 3.8: Monetary Valuation of Air Quality Impacts
Option Monetary Valuation of Air Quality Comments Impacts (£m NPV)
Overall, there is a beneficial impact on local NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations and an adverse impact A19 Tees Viaduct on regional NO emissions as a result of this -0.30 x Option option. This is due to an increase in capacity on the road network and increased traffic volumes as a result of the proposed scheme.
Overall, there is a beneficial impact on local NO2 A19 Tees Viaduct and PM2.5 concentrations and an adverse impact Capacity on regional NO emissions as a result of this -0.19 x Enhancement option. This is due to an increase in capacity on Option the road network and increased traffic volumes as a result of the proposed scheme.
3.5.3 Greenhouse Gases
The Climate Change Act 2008 includes a legally binding target to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions to at least 80 per cent below base year levels by 2050. It is therefore important that the impacts of proposed transport schemes on greenhouse gas emissions - whether they are increased or decreased – are incorporated within the appraisal in a consistent and transparent way.
Although TUBA provides the net present value of the change in carbon dioxide
equivalent (CO2e) emissions from road-based fuel consumption that is in the nontraded sector as an automatic output of the program, the output from TUBA were
not used to quantify CO2e at this stage. Instead, the TAG Greenhouse Gases Workbook
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has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the greenhouse gas impacts and their monetary valuation.
The Workbook can be found at Appendix F.
The NPV of the change in greenhouse gas emissions for both options is presented in Table 3.9 alongside a short commentary of the specific impacts.
Table 3.9: Monetary Valuation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Option Monetary Valuation of Greenhouse Gas Comments Emissions (£m NPV)
CO2 emissions are assessed on a regional scale, A19 Tees Viaduct where the predicted effect was adverse. This is -17.83 due to an increase in capacity and increased Option traffic volumes as a result of the proposed scheme.
CO emissions are assessed on a regional scale and A19 Tees Viaduct 2 an adverse effect on CO emissions was predicted. Capacity 2 -14.15 This is due to an increase in capacity and Enhancement increased traffic volumes as a result of the Option proposed scheme.
3.5.4 Landscape
The TAG Landscape Appraisal Worksheet has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the impact of scheme on the physical and cultural characteristics of the land itself (that is, its use and management) and how these are perceived. The Worksheets can be found at Appendix F.
For both options it has been assessed there could be potentially Moderate Adverse impacts.
The A19 Tees Viaduct Option would generally be in keeping with the area. However, it would introduce an adjacent crossing at a lower height to the existing Tees Viaduct, which would affect visual amenity along the river corridor, in particular as experienced from the Teesdale Way long distance path and National Cycle Network Route 1 as well as from accessible open spaces. The Portrack Relief Road would form a visual and aural intrusion along the northern edge of the Portrack Marshes. Furthermore, the proposed scheme would result in land take and loss of vegetation associated with the new road sections, in particular along the Portrack Relief Road, at Portrack Interchange, around the A19/A66 Interchange and around the new crossing.
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The A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option would generally be in keeping with the surrounding area. However, it would increase the width of the existing Tees Viaduct and introduce an adjacent crossing at a lower height to the existing Tees Viaduct, which would affect visual amenity along the river corridor, in particular as experienced from the Teesdale Way long distance path and National Cycle Network Route 1 as well as from accessible open spaces. The Portrack Relief Road would form a visual and aural intrusion along the northern edge of the Portrack Marshes. Furthermore, the proposed scheme would result in land take and loss of vegetation associated with the new road sections, in particular along the Portrack Relief Road, at Portrack Interchange and around the new crossing.
3.5.5 Townscape
The TAG Townscape Appraisal Worksheet has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the impact of scheme on the physical and social characteristics of the built and non-built urban environment and how these are perceived. The Worksheet can be found at Appendix F.
The A19 Tees Viaduct Option has been assessed as having potentially Moderate Adverse impacts. The proposed scheme would require land take from within the commercial/ industrial area, football pitches and open space. The scheme would be visible from many locations within the urban area. However, the change would largely be seen in context of the existing road network. Residents along Stockton Road, between the two interchanges, at the A19/A66 Interchange and at Whinney Banks, as well as employment receptors at Lustrum Industrial Estate, North Tees Industrial Estate, Portrack Industrial Estate and the Industrial Estate located to the east of the A19 and at the A19/A66 Interchange are predicted to experience adverse visual impacts.
The A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option has been assessed as having potentially Slight Adverse impacts. Although the urban area through which the scheme passes is already dominated by the existing road corridors, the option would result in adverse visual impacts, the loss of small areas of commercial/industrial areas and buffer planting, which can only be partially mitigated.
3.5.6 Biodiversity
The TAG Biodiversity Appraisal Worksheet has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the impact of scheme on the biodiversity and earth heritage (geological) interests. The Worksheet can be found at Appendix F.
For both options, it has been assessed there could be potentially Large Adverse impacts.
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Both options impact two internationally designated sites (Teesmouth and Cleveland Coast proposed Special Protection Area (pSPA) and proposed Ramsar sites); one nationally designated site (Teesmouth and Cleveland Coast Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI)); three locally designated sites (Local Wildlife Sites (LWS)); a number of Habitats of Principal Importance (HoPI); and potentially a number of protected species and Species of Principal Importance (SoPI). The actual presence of protected species in the scheme area is currently unknown and will be determined at later stages.
3.5.7 Historic Environment
The TAG Historic Environment Appraisal Worksheet has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the impact of scheme on the historic environment. The Worksheet can be found at Appendix F.
For both options, it has been assessed there could be potentially Neutral impacts on known heritage assets and Slight Adverse impacts on archaeology.
In relation to both options, the scheme maintains existing historic character and does not result in severance, loss of integrity, context or understanding within the Tees Valley landscape, and has an overall Neutral effect on all known heritage assets. However, there is potential to encounter previously unknown below-ground archaeological deposits during construction, which may have a slight adverse effect.
3.5.8 Water Environment
The TAG Water Environment Appraisal Worksheet has been utilised alongside the guidance identified in TAG Unit A3 to assess the impact of scheme on the water environment. The Worksheet can be found at Appendix F.
It has been assessed there could be potentially Highly or Potentially Significant impacts, although these are likely to be Neutral once mitigation is in place.
For both options, there is the potential to adversely affect the fluvial floodplain (for Flood Zone 3) of the Lustrum Beck due to both the Portrack Relief Road and the proposed crossing over the River Tees, and will potentially affect the flow of water in the tidal floodplain (for Flood Zones 2 and 3) of the River Tees and tidal sections of Billingham Beck and the Old River Tees. These aspects have been recommended to be assessed through a Flood Risk Assessment at PCF Stage 3.
Road drainage has the potential to impact the chemical quality of the Lustrum Beck (which currently has 'good' status under WFD) and Billingham Beck, River Tees and Old River Tees (which currently has 'failing' status under WFD) - however, this is not anticipated to be significant following a HAWRAT assessment for Lustrum Beck and
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the tidal nature of the River Tees, Billingham Beck and Old River Tees. Best practice dictates appropriate water treatment measures where required, so it is assumed that any impact will be negligible. Crossing points on the watercourses have the potential to impact fish passage, which is predominantly associated with shading impacts from the crossing.
The Environment Agency has been, and continue to be consulted, on the scheme and it has been highlighted that there is the potential to combine programmes and funding to deliver the required flood protection and highway improvements in the Portrack area. The Tees Tidal Flood Risk Management Strategy was published in June 2009, to provide a sustainable, cost effective plan for managing flood risk within the Tees Estuary over a 100 year period. It assessed potential interventions to manage flood risk in eight independent flood cells and identified a required investment of £93.9 million to support implementation of the Strategy's recommendations. The Portrack area was one of the cells considered, with a potential economic damage at £19.4 million over the life span of the Strategy and a high level indicative cost of £2.1 million.
The Environment Agency considers that intervention is required within the next six years to manage the current and the anticipated future level of flood risk in this area. Initial hydraulic modelling has been undertaken to assess the level of risk in more detail. This has identified a number of potential flooding routes, which could affect the A19 Portrack Interchange, resulting in severe disruption and potential damage to the highway network at this location.
In order to manage this flood risk a number of interventions are likely to be required. One option may be to construct a new defence between the River Tees and North Tees Industrial Estate – this could be along the line of the proposed Portrack Lane Relief Road. There is therefore potential to combine programmes and funding to deliver the required flood protection and highway improvements. This would need to be considered in detail but there are potential efficiencies and cost savings, together with an opportunity to make the network far more resilient to the impacts of flooding and climate change.
3.6 Social Distributional Impacts
A detailed summary of the assessment of the impacts of the scheme on different social groups has been undertaken in order to determine the differences between the options and to ensure a fair distribution of impacts. The analysis has been carried out in accordance with TAG Unit A4.2. A summary of the findings is contained in Table 3.10. The full TAG Distributional Impact Appraisal Matrix is contained in Appendix F.
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Table 3.10: Social Distributional Impacts Summary
Impact Route Option Key Impacts
All of the 5 income quintiles experience a beneficial effect, with quintile 1 experiencing a benefit greater than its proportion of A19 Tees the population whilst quintile 4 experiences benefit slightly Viaduct Option below its proportion of the population. Quintiles 2,3 and 5 experience benefit in line with their population. User Benefits All of the 5 income quintiles experience a beneficial effect but A19 Tees to a lesser extent. Quintile 1 experiences a benefit greater than Viaduct its proportion of the population. Quintiles 2 and 5 receive a Capacity proportion of benefits equivalent its share of population in the Enhancement impact area. Quintile 4 shows the lowest proportion of benefits Option compared to the proportion of population within the group.
All affected quintiles (1-3) experience a net disbenefit in terms of noise. Quintile three experiences a proportion of disbenefit A19 Tees above which would be expected from the quintile's population. Viaduct Option Quintile 1 experiences an adverse effect broadly in line with its population while the net disbenefit to quintile two is smaller than the proportion of the group's population. Noise A19 Tees All affected quintiles experience a net disbenefit in terms of Viaduct noise. Quintiles 2 and 3 experience a proportion of the net Capacity disbenefit above which would be expected from the quintile's Enhancement population while the adverse effect to quintile one is smaller Option than the proportion of the group's population.
Air quality impacts from PM2.5 is neutral across all income quintiles. Air quality impacts from NO2 are not distributed evenly. Quintile 1 experiences a proportion of the benefit above A19 Tees which would be expected from the quintile's population. Viaduct Option Quintiles 2 and 3 experience an adverse effect which is smaller than the proportion of the group in the total population. Quintiles 4 and 5 do not experience any significant benefit or disbenefit. Air Quality Air quality impacts from PM2.5 is neutral across all income quintiles. Air quality impacts from NO are not distributed A19 Tees 2 evenly. Quintile 1 experiences a proportion of the benefit Viaduct broadly in line with the proportion of the group in the total Capacity population, while quintiles 2 and 3 experience a proportion of Enhancement the benefit smaller than the proportion of the group in the total Option population. Quintiles 4 and 5 do not experience any significant benefit or disbenefit.
This option will have a higher proportion of accidents involving cars than the national average but will have a slight beneficial A19 Tees Accidents impact (reduction) in serious and fatal accidents. A moderate Viaduct Option beneficial impact will also be felt by vulnerable users and social groups.
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Impact Route Option Key Impacts
A19 Tees This option will have a higher proportion of accidents involving Viaduct cars than the national average but to a lesser extent. The option Capacity will have a slight beneficial impact (reduction) in serious and Enhancement fatal accidents. A moderate beneficial impact will also be felt by Option vulnerable users and social groups.
This option is anticipated to have a neutral impact on vulnerable groups including children, the elderly and households with A19 Tees disabled persons. However, there will be a slight negative Viaduct Option impact on households with car ownership owing to disruption to two PRoWs during the construction and operation of the scheme. Severance A19 Tees This option is anticipated to have a neutral impact on vulnerable Viaduct groups including children, the elderly and households with Capacity disabled persons. However, there will be a slight negative Enhancement impact on households with car ownership owing to disruption to Option two PRoWs during the construction and operation of the scheme.
3.7 Value for Money
The Value for Money assessment of the scheme has been undertaken in line with TAG and is based on assessment of the economic, environmental, social, distributional and financial impacts as described above. The Transport and Economic Efficiency (TEE), Public Accounts (PA) and Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) tables for each option are included within the Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report.
3.7.1 Benefit : Cost Ratio
The BCR is defined by dividing the total PVB by the calculated PVC and the calculation of an initial BCR is set out in Table 3.10 for both options. The initial value of BCR includes monetised benefits of users benefits in terms of travel times and operating costs, construction delay impacts, accident savings, noise, air quality and greenhouse gas impacts and indirect taxation impacts.
The adjusted BCRs, that includes consideration of reliability and resilience benefits, are also set out in Table 3.11.
The A19 Tees Viaduct Option delivers higher levels of user benefits than the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option as it includes more additional road capacity. However, as the BCR results demonstrate, the cost associated with this additional capacity is such that the overall return on investment is lower than in the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option.
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Table 3.11: Initial and Adjusted BCR Calculations
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity A19 Tees Viaduct Option Enhancement Option
PVB (£m) 218.6 207.1
PVC (£m) 239.3 189.6
NPV (£m) -20.8 17.6
Initial BCR 0.91 1.09
Reliability Benefits (£m) 31.8 31.1
Wider Benefits (£m) 94.8 80.8
Adjusted PVB (£m) 345.1 319.0
Adjusted BCR 1.44 1.68
According to the DfT Value for Money Framework categories are defined as follows:
• Poor VfM if BCR is below 1.0;
• Low VfM if the BCR is between 1.0 and 1.5;
• Medium VfM if the BCR is between 1.5 and 2;
• High VfM if the BCR is between 2.0 and 4.0; and
• Very High VfM if the BCR is greater than 4.0.
Therefore, it is clear that the A19 Tees Viaduct Option provides Low value for money, whilst the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option offers Medium value for money.
However, it is important to note that the overall value for money of the scheme encompasses more than just the benefit : cost ratio value – there are a range of benefits for which the standard approach does not provide a monetisation methodology, or for which the calculation is outside of the current scope of assessment. These benefits are more strategic in nature, and include:
• Unlocking future development growth across the City Region through the provision of additional road capacity;
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• Increased network resilience through the provision of additional lanes across the River Tees and the removal of existing vehicle conflicts; and
• Reducing the negative impact of the ongoing and significant maintenance requirements associated with the existing Tees Viaduct and Newport Bridge structures.
3.8 Sensitivity Tests
In order to understand how the sensitivity of the benefits described above against some alternative parameters, three sensitivity tests have been carried out as follows:
• High Growth;
• Low Growth; and
• With STDC site built out.
The High Growth scenario generates slightly more benefits than the Core scenario for both options between 2027 and 2042. However, by 2051 there are fewer benefits in the High Growth scenario than in the Core scenario, as the A19 corridor becomes much more constrained due to higher traffic volumes. The Low Growth scenario generates fewer benefits than the Core scenario in all years as there is less congestion in the Do Minimum and therefore fewer traffic benefits from the scheme.
Overall these two sensitivity tests indicate that if traffic growth turned out higher or lower than forecast, the BCR for both options would decrease slightly from the Core scenario value.
The STDC Site scenario sensitivity test indicates the additional STDC trips would increase the benefits from the scheme, with the biggest difference between impact occurring in 2042 when the STDC site is fully built out but the network is not at capacity (which occurs by 2051).
The impact of the sensitivity tests is reported in more detail in Appendix O of the Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report.
3.9 Appraisal Summary Table
The Appraisal Summary Table (AST) presents all the evidence from the economic assessment in a single table. It records all the impacts which have been assessed and described above using monetised, quantitative or qualitative information as appropriate. The ASTs for both options are included at Appendix G.
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4 The Financial Case
This chapter of the OBC provides information on the affordability of the scheme and its funding arrangements. It sets out the most recent cost estimates and their financial profile.
4.1 Costs
4.1.1 Scheme Preparation and Construction
Assumptions
A separate PCF Stage 2 Options Estimate Report has been produced detailing the costs and how they have been identified for the different options. This report is included at Appendix H.
A number of approaches to producing an assessment of capital expenditure have been adopted including:
• Costing exercise with rates valid to 1Q 2016;
• UK sourced estimating rates;
• UK sourced benchmarking rates;
• Allowances, where definition of the requirement is very low; and
• Percentage additions, for items such as preliminaries, logistics, professional fees and contingencies.
The following items have been excluded from this cost estimate:
• Removal/treatment of contaminated material;
• VAT, including non-recoverable VAT;
• Public inquiry costs;
• Planning application fees;
• Planning contributions;
• Marketing/PR costs;
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• Legal fees;
• All client costs and management;
• Inflation beyond 1Q 2016;
• Building demolitions and compensation costs; and
• Compulsory purchase/blight/compensation.
Rates have been sourced from SPONS Civil Engineering and Highways Works Price Book 2016, or from similar historic projects where appropriate. The average of the ranges given in SPONS for each item was used and overheads and preliminaries deducted to attain the rate used for estimating.
Land costs are based on an averaged unit rate for brownfield and industrial/commercial land in the Stockton area and were provided by Stockton-on- Tees Borough Council (SBC). An allowance has been included for compensation. The land and compensation cost used are indicative and will be refined at the appropriate PCF design stage. A draft book of reference has been prepared that details the land requirements and current ownership.
Enquiries have been undertaken on both scheme options to identify public utilities in the location of the proposed scheme. Estimates have been received for the following statutory undertakers and are included in the cost estimates:
• British Telecom;
• Virgin Media;
• Northern Powergrid; and
• Northern Gas Networks.
Cost Estimate
A summary of scheme base costs by option, excluding risk allowances which are defined in Section 4.3, is presented in Table 4.1. Table 4.1 also illustrates the conversion of the base costs to outturn costs, that is including the impact of construction price inflation. The detailed inflation assumptions are provided within the Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report.
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Table 4.1. Summary of Base and Outturn Scheme Costs
Option Base Cost Estimate Outturn Cost Estimate (£ Q1 2016) (£)
A19 Tees Viaduct Option 254,280,343 348,998,200
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity 196,539,554 269,761,316 Enhancement Option
Portrack Relief Road * 8,744,600 8,744,600
* No inflation costs included for this element of the scheme
These scheme costs are considered proportionate and affordable in relation to the issues identified in the Strategic Case and the predicted benefits of the scheme assessed in the Economic Case. The scheme cost has been derived in a robust way using information from current and recently completed projects, and the works required have been quantified based on the current scheme designs.
4.1.2 Maintenance Costs
At this stage no maintenance costs have been considered, although Highways England has identified an allowance for whole lift costs in their review of these estimates. Highways England has also identified a commuted sum that would be required should the additional infrastructure become part of the SRN.
4.2 Risk Allowance
A QRA has been carried out by the project team. The identification and quantification of risk through this process has led to the inclusion of a risk allowance in the scheme costs as shown in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2: Outturn Costs including Risk Allowance
Option Risk Allowance (£) Outturn Cost with Risk Allowance (£)
A19 Tees Viaduct Option 17,665,750 366,663,951
A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity 17,625,750 287,387,067 Enhancement Option
Portrack Relief Road * 2,186,150 10,930,750
* Risk allowance = 25% of scheme costs as no formal QRA has been carried out for this element of the scheme
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4.3 Spend Profile
The total cost of each option has been split over time between the current year and the opening year. PCF Stages 1-5 will occur over the years 2017 to 2024 - these are design stages – and PCF Stages 6-7 will occur over the years 2024 to 2027 - these are construction and handover phases. The costs associated with each year reflect the current PCF stage of the scheme. The risk costs are split into design risks and construction risks and are included across the relevant stages (see below for further information).
The breakdown of the scheme costs by year can be found in Table 4.3 and includes real cost inflation and risk allowances.
Table 4.3: Breakdown of Scheme Costs
Year A19 Tees Viaduct Option A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity (£m) Enhancement Option (£m)
2017 0.56 0.37
2018 2.26 1.54
2019 2.89 1.98
2020 14.73 10.13
2021 17.86 12.31
2022 12.57 8.67
2023 38.70 30.06
2024 62.96 50.24
2025 75.69 60.82
2026 76.50 61.50
2027 61.87 49.76
TOTAL 366.60 287.40
4.4 Budgets/Funding Cover
Several potential funding routes have been considered for the scheme and the most appropriate are set out below.
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• Highways England Road Investment Strategy (RIS)
The second RIS (RIS2) is a long term programme of stable funding for motorways and major roads running from 2020-2025. The RIS2 comprises a long term vision for England’s motorways and major roads, a multi-year investment plan that will be used to improve the network and create better roads for users and build on the high level objectives from the RIS period (2015-2020). Given that the scheme is aimed at addressing existing capacity issues on the SRN and that the majority of the work required on the scheme sits on the SRN, the RIS is an appropriate funding route.
However, if the scheme is delivered through the RIS, it should be noted that Highways England has developed its own cost estimate for the two options using their own approach to cost estimation which differs from the cost estimate set out previously in terms of the application of a different value for inflation, a figure for portfolio risk and also accounts for non-recoverable VAT.
In this case, the RIS-based cost estimate for the A19 Tees Viaduct Option is £618.4 million and for the A19 Capacity Enhancement Option is £473.9 million – these are considered by Highways England to be most likely costs based on a PCF Stage 2 range estimate. Whilst these are significantly higher than the figures set out previously, it should be noted that the difference in the base cost estimate is less than 5%.
As shown previously, the delivery of the scheme will straddle the RIS2 and RIS3 periods, although confirmation that the scheme will go ahead will be towards the end of the RIS2 period. Details regarding the RIS2 programme are expected to be confirmed and announced in Autumn 2019.
• Large Local Majors (LLM) Element of the new National Roads Fund
The LLM programme was set up in 2016 to cater for the small number of exceptionally large local highway authority transport schemes that could not be funded through the normal routes, such as Local Growth Fund or other devolved allocations. LLM development funding has been provided for the work on this scheme up to this point, and hence this is an appropriate funding route. The scheme was included in TfN’s advice to Government in Summer 2019 as to the priority LLM schemes for the North.
However, there may be a conflict between the contractual arrangements normally required for LLM schemes (where a local transport authority takes the lead and is the accountable body for the DfT) and the fact that the majority of work on this scheme will be on the SRN, and hence would ordinarily be led by
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Highways England. This could call into question the ability of this scheme to be funded through the usual LLM route.
In any event, LLM schemes should aim for the local or third party contributions to be at least 15% of the total scheme costs. The local contribution of each scheme will be for discussion as the scheme develops.
• Major Road Network (MRN) Element of the new National Roads Fund
The MRN forms a middle tier of the country’s busiest and most economically important local authority ‘A’ roads, sitting between the national SRN and the rest of the local road network. A specific new funding stream has been dedicated to improvements on MRN roads with the aim of reducing congestion, supporting economic growth and road users. As part of the scheme involves providing benefits to the defined MRN, this is considered to be an appropriate funding route.
However, the current MRN element of the National Roads Fund usually considers funding between £20 and 50 million (albeit up to a maximum ceiling of £100 million in exceptional circumstances), and there is not necessarily a discrete element of the scheme that would fit this range.
The Tees Valley Investment Plan was agreed in January 2019 and has been developed following a Devolution Deal signed by the Tees Valley Local Authorities with central government that is worth £450 million over 30 years. The Investment Plan has been created to deliver a programme of investment in the City Region over the 30 year period, and detailed allocations for the first ten year period have been drawn up. Delivery of this scheme would require approximately seven years’ worth of the total Investment Plan funding, and therefore the use of this funding source is effectively unaffordable and would prevent investment in other important transport and economic development priorities across the Tees Valley.
Private sector/other local contributions will play a part in the overall funding package, but a scheme of this size on the SRN could not be fully funded by third parties unless there was a bespoke repayment mechanism set up.
On this basis, it is concluded that New Tees Crossing scheme is most appropriate for inclusion in either RIS or LLM element of the National Roads Fund, or a combination of the two, given that the scheme involves some work on the SRN and some on the local highway network.
The scheme is therefore currently following a “dual track” route to funding, with assurance sought from both Highways England and DfT on the business case and its components, allowing funding to be sought through either route, or both, once this OBC has been approved.
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5 The Commercial Case
This chapter of the OBC outlines the commercial viability of the scheme, and the procurement strategy which will be used to engage the market. It provides the intended approach to risk allocation and transfer, contract and implementation timescales, as well as how the capability and technical expertise of the team delivering the scheme will be secured.
5.1 Commercial Viability
The New Tees Crossing scheme is considered to be commercially viable as Highways England has considered whole life costs during their review of the scheme costs set out in the Financial Case.
The scheme predominantly comprises new or upgraded transport infrastructure that will be maintained by Highways England (with regard to the SRN elements) and the relevant local highway authority (for the non-SRN elements) once constructed. There are no other anticipated ongoing costs that will affect the commercial viability of the improvement.
No specific market engagement has yet taken place on the scheme proposals other than the involvement of a Tier 1 contractor as part of the review of the buildability and the cost estimates. Given the nature of the works involved, however, there is expected that there will be a high demand and strong competition amongst engineering contractors to secure the contract for this scheme, given previous experience of such schemes included in the RIS programme and also delivered previously in the Tees Valley.
5.2 Output-based Specification
The anticipated output is a new strategic road crossing of the River Tees, in the approximate location of the existing Tees Viaduct, together with the widening of the existing structure, allied to an improvement to the local highway network (known as the Portrack Relief Road). These two elements can be delivered together or separately but are both necessary to realise the full benefits set out in the Economic Case.
The overall scheme needs to be delivered the within available funding envelope, ensuring best value, within the required construction design standards, integrating well with the surrounding highway network, maximising the economic objectives of the scheme, but with risk reduced to a level that is as low as reasonably practicable.
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To help achieve these objectives, the following actions are required:
• Achieve cost certainty;
• Minimise preparation costs in regard to scheme design;
• Minimise construction delivery costs;
• Achieve an efficient delivery programme;
• Achieve an appropriate quality of design;
• Incentivise innovation;
• Maintain project knowledge;
• Obtain contractor input to risk management and assessment;
• Obtain planning permission (likely via the 2008 Development Consent Order route); and
• Engage with contractors and stakeholders throughout planning to scheme delivery.
It is expected that the scheme will align with Highways England’s PCF – the accepted approach to the planning, delivery and management of major projects on the SRN. The PCF comprises a standard project lifecycle, standard project deliverables, project control processes and governance arrangements.
5.3 Procurement Strategy
The identified procurement strategy should identify the best way of achieving the objectives of the scheme and value for money, taking account of the risks and constraints. Consideration of the strategy for this scheme has included taking account of a developed market for any proposed procurement approach and a mechanism to incentivise performance, efficiency and innovation.
The Project Board has determined that, irrespective of the eventual funding route for the scheme, given the high level of interaction with the SRN, the scheme would ideally be delivered by Highways England through their procurement processes and procedures allied to the PCF.
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In light of this, a Project Level Procurement Strategy has been prepared as part of the PCF Stage 2 work and is included at Appendix I. It describes the most appropriate and effective method of procurement for the construction of the scheme.
This is intended to be a ‘live’ document, which is reviewed and updated at each appropriate stage of scheme development to ensure that any new procurement routes available are highlighted and assessed. As such, the procurement strategy will be reviewed in PCF Stage 3.
5.3.1 Preferred Procurement Procedure
In developing the procurement strategy, four contracting models were considered as options to deliver the scheme. All four options involve common industry practice and have been proven successful on other highways schemes:
• Option 1 - Early Contractor Involvement (ECI);
• Option 2 - Late ECI;
• Option 3 - Construct Only;
• Option 4 - Design and Build (D&B).
The conclusions of the review of these models and reported in the strategy are as follows:
• Each of the four procurement models is an acceptable form of procurement for a major highway scheme such as the New Tees Crossing;
• The Late ECI option offers the shortest Development Phase duration and thereby the earliest project delivery;
• The Late ECI option, having the shortest Development Phase programme, should result in the lowest development phase cost;
• The Construct Only option offers the greatest degree of flexibility to switch procurement strategy and timeframe at a later date – this is followed by the D&B option, and of the two ECI models, the Late ECI option is the more flexible;
• All options, with the exception of the Construct Only option, offer or provide the opportunity for contractor involvement during the Development Phase; and
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• By virtue of achieving the earliest agreed target cost, the Late ECI option offers the greatest cost certainty.
The strategy therefore recommends that the Late ECI method of procurement be adopted for the New Tees Crossing scheme, with appointment of the ECI Contractor after publication of the draft Orders and Environmental Statement – effectively the end of PCF Stage 3.
5.3.2 Portrack Relief Road
The Portrack Relief Road scheme, previously developed and promoted by SBC, has been incorporated within the New Tees Crossing scheme promoted through this OBC due to the complementary benefits to the SRN element of the scheme arising from improved local highway network operation.
Whilst the Portrack Relief Road element forms part of the overall scheme for this OBC, the element could be funded and delivered separately, if desirable in the future. Nevertheless, the recommendations of the procurement strategy are considered also relevant for this element of the scheme, irrespective of whether it is delivered as part of the overall New Tees Crossing scheme or not.
5.4 Payment and Charging Mechanisms
At this time, it is envisaged that Highways England will tender the construction contract and the successful contactor will be paid by monthly valuation, as with other similar schemes within the RIS.
As part of the PCF Stage 3 work, there will be further scheme level consideration of payment and charging mechanisms in accord with Highways England’s procedures.
5.5 Risk Allocation and Transfer
A more detailed account of the approach to risk management for the scheme is included in the Management Case. However, at this stage of scheme development and prior to the letting of the construction contract, the scheme cost estimate contains a greater proportion of risk borne by TVCA and Highways England than will remain after the appointment of the successful contractor.
Some of the risk is captured and quantified within the QRA process as outlined in the Management Case. Once the tendering process for the construction contract is complete, some of the risk (such as scheme cost increases associated with the design and construction) can be transferred to the successful contractor. However, the risk of costs being higher than currently predicted, remains until the tendering process is complete.
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Where the residual risk of cost increases lies will be an important factor in determining the preferred funding route of the two identified in the Financial Case. With RIS, this will lie with Highways England and will be managed as part of the overall RIS programme.
With the LLM route, this residual risk would normally lie with the promoting local highway authority, but with this scheme, it is recommended that the procurement and construction supervision of the scheme will be managed by Highways England, meaning the local highway authority would be responsible for a risk over which it has little, or no, control. This is likely to lead to a significant increase in management costs to account for this (albeit avoidable) risk, or, more importantly, the situation where the Section 151 Officer cannot reasonably be expected to agree to the conditions of the LLM funding on that basis.
Based on the Highways England estimate of portfolio risk, the likely value of the additional cost to either option for adopting this delivery route is around £50 million.
Other risks that will be transferred to the successful contractor at the appropriate time include those that encompass discharging planning conditions, estimations of the quantities, mitigation measures and resources.
TVCA and Highways England will continue to take responsibility for risks that encompass land, residual planning and environmental permission in the next stage of design work as well as the following specific risks:
• The need for changes to the scheme;
• Inaccuracies or incompleteness of any of the data or information related to the scheme;
• Pre-contract advance works which might result in delivery and programme delays to the contractor;
• Pre-contract arrangements with others/third parties; and
• Change in the law.
Other risks, such as the identification of statutory undertakers’ equipment, and mitigation costs associated with these, can be removed from the QRA element of the scheme costs completely if they do not materialise, or transferred to “actual” scheme costs if they do materialise, rather than remaining within the risk allocation.
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5.6 Contract Length and Management
At this time, the construction contract will most likely be a NEC4 contract. The recent update to the NEC4 suite of contracts from NEC3 reflects procurement and project management developments and emerging best practice, with improvements in flexibility, clarity and the ease of administration.
It is anticipated that the construction contract itself will run for a period of between 36 and 48 months from award, from 2024 through to 2027. The buildability review undertaken by a Tier 1 contractor confirms that this timetable is realistic.
It is envisaged that design, procurement and construction supervision of the scheme will be managed by Highways England, unless the Portrack Relief Road element is taken forward separately, in which case this will be led by SBC.
Regular contract management meetings will be scheduled post-award of the construction contract(s) throughout the delivery programme to monitor progress, risk and finance.
5.7 Human Resources Issues
No significant human resources issues have been identified that could affect the deliverability of the scheme, although it is recognised that it will have a considerable human resources requirement, across TVCA, Highways England, the design teams and the contractor teams.
At this time, sufficient resources have been identified to deliver the scheme and further details of the required capabilities and assigned resources are set out in the Management Case. The resource requirement will be kept under review by the Project Board and, if necessary, additional resources brought in.
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6 The Management Case
This chapter of the OBC describes how the scheme will be managed and delivered.
6.1 Evidence of Similar Projects
The Government’s highest priority for strategic roads is delivering RIS1. Highways England has been moving forward work on 112 major schemes originally planned to start work in the RIS1 period, with 85 now having started or planned to start by the end of the RIS1 period in March 2020. One of the RIS1 schemes (the A19 Norton to Wynyard Improvements) is within the Tees Valley, whereas another seven RIS1 schemes are in the North East, two on the A19 further north from the Tees Valley.
In its most recent annual report on the performance of Highways England, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) identified that forecast total costs for its RIS1 major schemes are currently £2.9 billion higher than originally assumed. This increase was due to the increased scope for some schemes and immature scheme estimates when RIS1 funding was set.
The Government’s objectives for RIS2 include that the programme will do more to incentivise the integration of the strategic and local road networks, and that Highways England demonstrates that it is efficient and also deliver schemes on time and to budget. The performance specification for the RIS sets out to ensure that the SRN relates well to the surrounding transport network, the wider environment and the communities it affects.
There is therefore clear evidence of the delivery of similar projects to the New Tees Crossing scheme by Highways England and that this scheme sits well within the RIS programme performance specification.
There has also been a good level of consideration already given as to how the scheme can be constructed efficiently and safely. The buildability review undertaken by a suitably experienced Tier 1 contractor suggests that construction of the New Tees Crossing scheme will predominantly be carried out offline but there will need to be temporary closure of some of the existing slip roads while the new structure is joined onto the existing road network. Reduced speed limits through the area of works on the existing carriageway are also likely to be required for worker safety. Two lanes of traffic in both directions on the A19 and A66 will be maintained at peak times during construction.
If the Portrack Relief Road element of the scheme is taken forward separately, the Tees Valley Local Authorities also have a strong track record in the procurement and delivery of major transport schemes, with five examples of recent projects in Middlesbrough and Stockton including:
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• South Stockton Link Road – the South Stockton Link Road was completed in 2005 and involved the construction of a new dual carriageway route heading south from the A1046 in Stockton-on-Tees across the A66 towards Ingleby Barwick.
• Ingleby Way/Myton Way Dualling - SBC worked in partnership with Lumsden and Carroll to undertake a major highway improvement scheme in order to alleviate traffic congestion at Ingleby Barwick - the scheme involved new carriageway construction, re-surfacing, drainage, earthworks, traffic signals, street lighting, traffic signs and road markings.
• North Middlesbrough Accessibility Improvements - the scheme comprised a number of improvements within the area, including a new link road with pedestrian and cycle facilities between Newport roundabout and Riverside Park Road, widening of the existing A66 westbound and eastbound carriageways between Newport roundabout and the A19 interchange and the widening of the circulatory carriageway at Newport roundabout with increased traffic signal control.
• Tees Valley Bus Network Improvements scheme – this was a £57 million major public transport scheme for the five Tees Valley local authorities and the LEP that provided bus priority and passenger facilities improvements across over 20 main corridors over a five year period, allied to a voluntary partnership agreement with the principal bus operators – the scheme was delivered on time and on budget.
• A19/A689 Wolviston Interchange Pinch Point Scheme - this scheme improved the layout at the merge of the A689 southbound entry slip and the A19, widened the A689 west approach to the roundabout to four lanes and introduced traffic signal control on all approach arms of the junction.
6.2 Project Dependencies
The Strategic Case identified a number of other transport and non-transport interventions with a relationship to the New Tees Crossing scheme, but the one with the greatest level of dependency is the A19 Norton to Wynyard Improvements RIS1 scheme.
The latter scheme will improve the flow of traffic on the A19 by increasing the section between the A1027 and the A689 to three lanes wide in each direction, allied to the replacement of the existing concrete carriageway with low noise surfacing. The scheme is currently programmed to commence construction in 2020 and be completed by 2022.
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The issues of network unreliability and congestion that the New Tees Crossing scheme are trying to address will only increase with the opening of the Norton to Wynyard scheme. The planned construction phase of the New Tees Crossing scheme is intended to follow the delivery of the A19 Norton to Wynyard scheme so as to minimise the time whereby the full benefits of the committed improvement may not otherwise be realised.
6.3 Governance, Organisational Structure and Roles
To date, TVCA has led the development of the scheme in partnership with Highways England and this will continue until such time as this OBC is agreed. The current governance structure and key roles are illustrated in Figure 6.1.
Figure 6.1: Current Governance Structure and Roles
DfT Government
TVCA SRO
Highways DBC, HBC, England SBC MC RCBC Technical Approver Local Authority Local Authority Local Authorities
Arup Project Manager
Arup Fore Jacobs
Technical Lead Business Case Traffic & Economics
Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) – the SRO has overall accountability for the delivery of the scheme ensuring the scheme remains focused on achieving its objectives. They have the authority to make decisions concerning the delivery of the scheme within a certain delegation.
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The SRO is the TVCA Investment Director, Alison Fellows, who reports directly to the Tees Valley Management Group within the TVCA governance structure, and then on to the Tees Valley Combined Authority Transport Committee and Cabinet.
Project Manager – the Project Manager leads and manages the project team with the authority and responsibility to run the project on a day-to-day basis. A Project Manager was recruited in 2017 through the SBC Economic Growth and Development Services Consultancy Partnership 2016-2020 framework agreement.
Andy Johnson of Arup is the current Project Manager for the scheme – a Chartered Civil Engineer with over 20 years’ experience specialising in highway and infrastructure engineering and has significant experience in leading the design, project management and supervision of large multi-disciplinary teams delivering highway and environmental improvement schemes varying in value up to £400 million. He has particular knowledge of Highways England major projects and has first-hand experience of successfully delivering PCF Stages 0-7 across a number of UK projects.
Project Board – a Project Board has been set up and supports the SRO and Project Manager. The purpose of the Project Board is to manage the completion of PCF Stages 1 and 2 and the production of this OBC. The Project Board is chaired by the SRO or the Project Manager, and comprises senior level representation from the following:
• TVCA – Head of Transport;
• SBC – Highways, Transport and Design Manager;
• Middlesbrough Council – Head of Transport and Infrastructure;
• Highways England; and
• Technical support teams,
with representatives of the other Tees Valley Local Authorities invited to participate in Board meetings for completeness.
The Project Board, via the SRO and/or the Project Manager, reports progress, as required, to:
• DfT;
• Tees Valley Combined Authority Transport Committee and Cabinet;
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• Tees Valley Transport Advisory Group; and
• Local Authority Cabinets/Executive Groups.
The Project Board receives progress and project exception reports from, and gives direction to, the Project Manager. The Board ensures the timely set up and key deliverables from the technical support teams involved with the scheme, commissioning the technical work necessary.
The Project Board also provides overview of the risk register, ensures effective communications are implemented and will carry out stage gate reviews at key project milestones, or as required by the Government’s Gateway or Highways England processes.
It should be noted that Highways England have been involved in the scheme since its inception and has steered the project from a governance perspective through its role on the Project Board. The organisation is supportive of the scheme and their in-house technical assurance teams have reviewed the PCF Stage 1 and 2 traffic, economic and environmental products.
Given the high level of interaction with the SRN, it is expected that the scheme will follow the governance processes prescribed in the PCF from the point at which this OBC is accepted, but with the continued involvement of TVCA and at least SBC and Middlesbrough Council in the governance structure through an updated Project Board membership.
The Project Management Plan (PMP) included at Appendix J provides the basis for the execution of the New Tees Crossing scheme throughout the project lifecycle and at each PCF stage. The PMP is a tool used for planning and managing projects, maintained by the Project Manager and is available to all project team members. The plan is a ‘live’ document that is updated as the scheme progresses so that it represents the project's current status (for example, changes in scope, programme). The PMP provides concise and accurate information about the background to the scheme, the agreed objectives and deliverables. Moreover, it sets out clearly the anticipated governance process for the delivery of the scheme.
6.4 Project Plan
A Project Plan has been developed for this OBC setting out all the key project tasks and their duration, the interdependencies between each of the tasks, and key milestones and gateways. Certain elements of the programme have a built-in tolerance/contingency to account for risks identified within the risk register which could have an impact upon the programme.
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Collaborative planning has been adopted on the scheme to ensure key milestones are met and additional efficiencies identified and realised to assist with the RIS objectives and targets being met.
The current version of the project plan, included at Appendix K, has been produced and managed by the Project Manager, and includes all significant work activities, significant outputs and key decision points regardless of which organisation is leading the work, for example, traffic modelling work, commercial outputs and Highways England governance milestones.
The project plan is a ‘live’ document and will be reviewed and updated regularly to provide an accurate and integrated picture of progress and dependencies for the project. The Project Manager is responsible for ensuring the plan is reviewed and updated on a monthly basis. Any changes or risks to achieving key milestone dates are brought to the Project Board’s attention and discussed as part of the monthly meeting cycle. All proposed revisions to the project plan are issued to the Project Board for approval.
A greater level of detail will be introduced into the project plan during next stage(s) of the PCF process, as detailed design of the scheme progresses and as risk quantification and impacts change. However, at this stage the key milestones from the project plan are set out below:
• Preferred Route Announcement - Spring 2020;
• Draft Order Publication - 2020/21;
• Planning Inspectorate Examination - 2022;
• Planning Inspectorate Recommendations to Secretary of State - 2023;
• Secretary of State Decision - 2023;
• Land acquisition details placed on deposit and published - 2023;
• Start of Works - 2024; and
• Completion - 2027.
6.5 Assurance and Approvals Plan
Project assurance provides the basic framework of controls that ensure:
• The project is managed and controlled as directed by the SRO;
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• Basic standards are being followed; and
• The project is well-managed.
To date, the development of the scheme has followed the WebTAG transport appraisal process advocated by the DfT and Highways England’s PCF process in parallel, noting that the requirements of the PCF Stage 2 work go beyond what would normally be expected of an OBC.
The project assurance controls that have been utilised thus far include:
• Regular reporting (see below);
• Exception reporting and re-authorisation;
• Sign-off of PCF products as they are produced; and
• Stage gate assessment reviews - evidence-based review that draws on documentation and activities that the project team have already produced.
Whilst it is the PCF project assurance controls that have been utilised in the main on the scheme, it is recognised that responsibility for the assurance and approval of this OBC and thereafter the FBC, rests initially with the DfT, who will assess the technical content of the business cases against appropriate business case and transport appraisal guidance in order to confirm that the scheme represents value for money and is deliverable.
Again given the high level of interaction with the SRN, it is expected that the PCF assurance process will be followed, as shown in Figure 6.2.
Figure 6.2: PCF Assurance Process Summary
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6.6 Communications and Stakeholder Management
A Stakeholder Engagement and Public Consultation Strategy has been created as part of PCF Stage 2 work and includes an associated Communications Plan for 2019/20. Both of these are included at Appendix L.
The aims of the Stakeholder Engagement and Public Consultation Strategy are as follows:
• Making available to interested parties, information on the need and impact of the scheme;
• Giving the public and stakeholders an opportunity to express their views on the option(s) under consideration and provide a feedback loop;
• Outlining the sustainable option(s) for consideration and the likely consequences of the scheme; and
• Providing a programme for future stakeholder engagement and public consultation.
The aim of the Communications Plan is to ensure the consistent and structured delivery of messages to all key stakeholders throughout the lifecycle of the scheme. The messages cover both the local and national benefits of the scheme.
Both documents are to be updated at each PCF stage and at other key points during the project lifecycle, being treated as ‘live’ documents with additional information added when applicable.
They set out the timings and considerations for external communications for some consideration of future PCF stages. The Project Board will be responsible for ensuring the Stakeholder Engagement and Public Consultation Strategy and agreed Communications Plan are implemented.
6.7 Programme/Project Reporting
The scheme will follow the PCF project lifecycle and will seek opportunities to expedite the process where possible to meet the RIS objectives set by DfT. A proportionate and efficient approach to the production of PCF products will be taken at all stages.
To date, the progress of the scheme and in particular the progress of the current deliverables has been reported by the consultant(s) to the Project Manager and thereafter the Project Board, in a monthly progress report.
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A summary of other reporting formats and frequencies adopted to date is shown in Table 6.1.
Table 6.1: Regular Reporting Formats and Frequency
Control Area Report Description Frequency Co-ordinated By
Progress (product Progress Report Monthly Project Manager delivery) against Stage plan/programme
Risks and issues Risk Register and Monthly Project Manager Issues Log
Change control Change Log Monthly Project Manager
Costs and budgets Monthly finance Monthly Project Manager against the Stage cost returns and Monthly plan Management Reports
Look ahead Progress Report and Monthly Project Manager Progress Meeting Minutes
These procedures are based on good practice, and it is anticipated that they, or a variation of them, will be adopted as the scheme moves forward within the PCF lifecycle.
6.8 Risk Management Strategy
A Risk Management Plan (RMP) is in place for the scheme and is included at Appendix M. This specifically addresses issues associated with risk and sets out the management framework that will be put into place to assist in the identification, assessment and control of risk throughout the project lifecycle. It is based on the PCF RMP template and the PCF Risk Management Manual has been used as a basis for the risk management process adopted, which is illustrated in Figure 6.3.
To supplement the RMP and to facilitate effective risk management on the scheme, a Risk Register has been produced, as included at Appendix N. This is the primary means of recording risk information and monitoring risk exposure throughout the life of the scheme. It not only records all identified risks and their associated assessments, but also includes necessary risk control plans and responsibilities, as well as the status of all risks. It has been developed through a collaborative process at suitable times during the development of the scheme.
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Figure 6.3: Risk Management Process
The first risk workshop was conducted at the end of the design and cost process within PCF Stage 1 in order to ensure the major risks were properly understood by all parties. The risk workshop was held in November 2017 and attended by members of the Project Board and delivery teams. The original Newport and Tees Viaduct Options described in the Strategic Case were assessed in this workshop.
The workshop discussed the qualitative and quantitative scoring of the risks, pre- and post-scoring, and the risk mitigation plans. A quantitative range was associated with each qualitative score for likelihood, cost and time, this can be seen in the RMP. To calculate the most likely risk costs an average of the cost range was used and multiplied by the average of the likelihood range, based on the qualitative scores given to each risk, these most likely risk costs were summed to give the overall risk cost. The strategic and programme risks were excluded from the quantitative assessment as the risks will be managed by the DfT and Highways England respectively.
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During PCF Stage 2, two further risk workshops were conducted. The first was held in April 2018 and focussed on reviewing the risks for the Capacity Enhancement Option, as this option had the highest BCR of the three options being considered at that time. A second risk workshop was then held in June 2019 that focussed on reviewing the risks for both the A19 Tees Viaduct Option and the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option as part of the preparation of this OBC. In both cases, the highest threat risks and the highest cost risks were reviewed and any risks that were no longer applicable were closed out. This workshop provided the basis for the risk values set out in the Financial Case.
Further risk reviews are to be undertaken in each PCF stage. Reporting of key risks is undertaken at Project Board meetings as necessary – the most recent review of the overall risk register was undertaken by the Project Board in September 2019. Updates will be given on key outstanding risks where the risk type/size/response has changed.
Table 6.2 identifies the top 10 risks identified at this current stage of scheme preparation.
Table 6.2: Top 10 Current Risks
Risk Cause Risk Event Risk Impact Risk Mitigation Post Mitigation Risk Rating
Proximity of Loading from Differential Scheme specific ground High Threat new new structures settlement investigation to be structures to could affecting undertaken to existing detrimentally existing investigate ground affect existing structure. conditions. Foundations structures to be designed taking
into account surrounding Cost to structures and remediate considering construction sequence.
Working at Potential for Could cause Prefabricate components Medium height workers to fall critical away from site to reduce Threat from a height injuries/death working time spent at height. Provide safe access to works at height. Use innovative methods/plant to reduce time /number of operatives working at height to complete a task.
Ground Possible collision Injury/death, GI works to be fully Medium investigation with moving halting of works segregated from live Threat work in urban vehicles during on site highway. Lanes to be environment on-site ground closed where
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Risk Cause Risk Event Risk Impact Risk Mitigation Post Mitigation Risk Rating close to busy investigation appropriate. Safe access roads activities routes to be planned and Delay to implemented. programme Consideration to be given during development of Construction plan/programme. High visibility PPE to be worn by all staff.
Loss of or High Effect on Early consultation with Medium disruption to compensation reputation, business owners to allow Threat commercial claims or delays during for modifications to facilities or requirement to consultation, options where possible. buildings (e.g. purchase land additional costs NMU surveys to be within the and delays carried out to industrial during understand current estates and at construction levels of use. Goals Engagement with NMU Teesside) stakeholders to understand requirements/constraints etc.
Potential New protection The proposed Ensure early liaison with High Threat RAMSAR and areas affect the scheme is no consultation process to pSPA sites at potential route longer feasible ensure key clashes are Portrack corridors and requires highlighted Marshes redesign or realignment
Reuse of If structures are Cost and Existing structural Medium existing not capable of duration of surveys to be undertaken Threat structures meeting current design and before construction in within new design standards construction order to determine what alignment due to altered increase remedial works may be alignment or required deterioration of existing structure additional works will be required
Ground Poor ground Design is no Comprehensive Ground Medium conditions conditions. longer Investigation to be Threat Construction adequate. This undertaken before costs could could increase commencement of increase cost/programme works. Foundations significantly due to remedial suitably designed. Look above that preparatory at as-built information
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Risk Cause Risk Event Risk Impact Risk Mitigation Post Mitigation Risk Rating allowed for if work prior to where this exists for ground is poor construction. adjacent structures. and foundations Larger have to change foundations in size, type or could be quantity required
Contaminated Contaminated Undertake detailed Medium land land causes Ground Investigation to Threat pollution event classify levels of off site contamination. Adopt robust construction control measures on site.
Scope Further Increase cost of Timely communication Medium increase due modelling design and with traffic modellers Threat to results of indicates preparation. should allow for early traffic additional design Scheme costs warnings to be given if modelling requirements increase. Delay the scope of work is e.g. capacity risk proposed to change. The increases etc client can then advise on whether to change the scope.
Asbestos Moving earth Long term ill Investigations to Critical disturbs buried health/death. determine level of Threat asbestos and Cost of contamination. Asbestos causes fibres to remediation. register and be exposed / management plan to be transferred provided to review and around the site. take precautions as Modification/ necessary. demolition of existing structure cause asbestos fibres to be exposed.
6.9 Benefits Realisation Plan
An outline Benefits Realisation Plan (BRP) has been produced as part of this OBC to begin the process of identifying, tracking and comparing the various benefits expected to be delivered. The scheme objectives and a logic mapping process have been used to develop the “desired outputs, outcomes and impacts” of the scheme. These desired outputs, outcomes and impacts are the actual benefits that are expected to be derived from the scheme and are directly linked to the original set of objectives:
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• Desired outputs – tangible effects that are funded and result from the scheme;
• Desired outcomes – what happens as a result of the outputs; and
• Desired impacts – the final impacts brought about by the scheme in the short, medium and long term as a result of the outputs and outcomes.
The scheme objectives and desired outputs/outcomes/impacts are summarised in Table 6.3 and provided the starting point for the development of the BRP.
Given the scheme objectives identified, the outline BRP focuses upon stimulus to jobs/economic activity and the impact on journey times. To determine whether the scheme benefits are being realised, the desired outputs, outcomes and impacts have been converted into measurable indicators of scheme benefits, and are reported in the BRP, that is closely aligned to the Monitoring and Evaluation Plan.
The outline BRP is included at Appendix O. Responsibility for the BRP and the associated monitoring and evaluation sits with the Project Board.
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Table 6.3: Scheme Objectives, Desired Outputs, Outcomes and Impacts
Scheme Objective Desired Outputs Desired Outcomes Desired Impacts
Support the economic growth objectives of the Northern A new crossing of the Quicker and more Increase in jobs Powerhouse and the Tees Valley City Region River Tees to cost and reliable journey times timescales that provides
additional capacity and Increase in GVA Improve access to the City Region Strategic Centres and integrates well with the Improved resilience for Enterprise Zone sites the surrounding highway surrounding highway Increase in labour market network network catchments areas
Support sustainable local development in the medium to long term Reduction in the Reduced carbon number and severity of emissions incidents for all road Improve access to jobs and services for all road users users Improved air quality Support the SRN in delivering enhanced connectivity Improved environmental and community Improved satisfaction wellbeing outcomes with network Deliver connectivity enhancements for freight movements across the network performance
Reduce congestion and provide reliable north-south journey
times on the A19
Improve resilience of the river crossing itself and the wider strategic road network
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Scheme Objective Desired Outputs Desired Outcomes Desired Impacts
Reduce the number and severity of incidents for all road users
Minimise adverse impacts on health and environment
Reduce the impacts of the route on severance for local communities
Provide value for money
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6.10 Monitoring and Evaluation Plan
The scheme will be subject to a programme of before and after monitoring and evaluation. Monitoring and evaluation are distinct activities - monitoring asks whether delivery is proceeding as planned and evaluation asks whether the intervention has achieved its desired objectives.
The outline Monitoring and Evaluation Plan included at Appendix P sets out the activities that will be undertaken to demonstrate the extent to which scheme objectives were met, monitor performance of the scheme and ensure that any potential issues post implementation are identified and addressed.
The types of measures that may be monitored (covering inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts) include:
• Scheme build;
• Delivered scheme;
• Costs;
• Travel demand;
• Absolute journey times and reliability of journey times;
• Economic impacts;
• Accidents;
• Carbon impacts;
• Air quality; and
• Customer satisfaction.
The outline plan will be updated as part of the FBC in light of the continued development of the scheme.
Through an evaluation of the scheme, TVCA and Highways England will seek to:
• Understand whether and how the scheme’s main objectives have been achieved, exceeded or not reached;
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• Provide transferable evidence that may be used to inform future decision making on similar transport schemes; and
• Improve the efficiency and effectiveness in the delivery of future schemes based on the lessons learnt from this scheme.
The SRO will take overall responsibility for the monitoring and evaluation of the scheme, with the Project Manager taking responsibility for the delivery and programming of the evaluation programme. This may include the procurement of specialist consultancy support and survey contractors to evaluate, report, collect and collate the necessary information, respectively.
The proposed monitoring and evaluation of the scheme builds on the outline BRP. It has also been prepared in light of the requirements of Post Opening Project Evaluation (POPE) undertaken for all of Highways England’s major schemes. The key objective of POPE is to identify the extent to which the expected impacts of highway schemes have materialised and to inform thinking on current and future national scheme appraisal methods. POPE also forms the mechanism whereby Highways England can determine:
• The extent to which major schemes offer value for money; and
• The level of accuracy associated with estimates of costs and predictions of benefits emerging from major schemes and the main factors affecting the accuracy.
Given that POPE studies are undertaken for each major scheme one and five years after opening, this also seems appropriate an appropriate timing for the evaluation of the New Tees Crossing scheme.
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7 Summary
This document and its series of appendices comprise the OBC for a new strategic road crossing of the River Tees.
The scheme has a strong strategic fit and the economic analysis of the preferred option – the A19 Tees Viaduct Capacity Enhancement Option - demonstrates that an adjusted BCR of over 1.5 is generated if wider economic impacts are considered, representing Medium value for money.
Beyond the economic analysis, the New Tees Crossing scheme will also:
• Relieve the existing A19/A66 bottleneck, enhancing the reliability of people’s journeys across the Tees Valley’s road network and reducing the cost to the local and national economy due to congestion and delays;
• Reduce journey times for local people – most drivers are expected to save more than two minutes of travel time during peak periods – unlocking development potential in the City Region through the provision of additional road capacity and making the Tees Valley more attractive to inward investors and visitors;
• Improve the resilience of the network and therefore reduce the negative impact of events such as roadworks and road traffic accidents;
• Make journeys safer by improving the standard and capacity of the road network;
• Improve access to the Tees Valley’s Enterprise Zone sites, the South Tees Development Corporation site, the expanding port facilities along the River Tees and the newly rebranded Teesside International Airport;
• Deliver connectivity and journey time reliability enhancements for freight and logistics traffic – a key component of the Tees Valley’s growth plans;
• Support the economic growth objectives of the Northern Powerhouse and the Tees Valley City Region; and
• Help realise the full benefit of the committed A19 Norton to Wynyard improvement scheme, which is due for completion by 2022.
The base cost estimate for the preferred option is £205,284,154, whilst the estimated outturn cost is £298,317,817, with the latter figure also including a calculated allowance for risk. The costs have been derived in a robust way using information from current and
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recently completed projects, and the works required have been quantified based on the current scheme designs.
Several potential funding routes have been considered for the scheme, with the most appropriate being the Highways England Road Investment Strategy and the Large Local Majors element of the new National Roads Fund.
Irrespective of the final funding route, given its high level of interaction with the Strategic Road Network, the scheme should, ideally, be delivered by Highways England through its procurement processes and procedures allied to the Project Control Framework. On this basis, the procurement strategy that has been prepared recommends that the Late Early Contractor Involvement method of procurement be adopted for the scheme, with appointment of the contractor after publication of the draft Orders and Environmental Statement.
A sound governance structure has been in place throughout the life of the scheme, and Highways England has been closely involved in its development since inception. Highways England is supportive of the scheme, and its in-house technical assurance teams have reviewed the traffic, economic and environmental products prepared in support of this business case.
As this submission clearly demonstrates, there is a strong and robust case for investment in a New Tees Crossing. It is therefore recommended that the scheme is prioritised for funding so that the many benefits that it will deliver across the Tees Valley City Region can be realised as soon as possible.
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Appendix A
Options Assessment Report
Appendix B
Public Consultation Report
Appendix C
Appraisal Specification Report
Appendix D
Combined Modelling and Appraisal Report
Appendix E
Environmental Assessment Report
Appendix F
TAG Supporting Workbooks and Worksheets
Appendix G
Appraisal Summary Tables
Appendix H
Options Estimate Report
Appendix I
Procurement Strategy
Appendix J
Project Management Plan
Appendix K
Project Plan
Appendix L
Stakeholder Engagement and Public Consultation Strategy
Appendix M
Risk Management Plan
Appendix N
Risk Register
Appendix O
Benefits Realisation Plan
Appendix P
Monitoring and Evaluation Plan
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