EWS Food Supply Prospect EARLY WARNING SYSTEM in 2004 REPORT DECEMBER Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission 2003 TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Glossary of Local Names and Acronyms 3 Executive Summary 4 Introduction 8 Part One: Food Security Prospects in Crop Dependent Areas 10 1.1 Tigray Region 10 1.2 Amhara Region 13 1.3 Oromiya Region 17 1.4 Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) 20 1.5 Dire Dawa 23 1.6 Harari 25 1.7 Gambella 27 Part Two: Food Security Prospects in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Areas 29 2.1 Afar Region 20 2.2 Somali Region 32 Tables: Table 1: - Affected population needing food assistance by region 6 Table 2: - 2004 food requirements by region 6 Table 3: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Tigray by Zone 12 Table 4: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Amhara by Zone 16 Table 5: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Oromiya by Zone 19 Table 6: - Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in SNNPR by Zone 22 Table 7: -Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Gambella by Zone 28 Table 8: -Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Afar by Zone 31 Table 9:-Affected population and food aid requirement for 2004 in Somali by Zone 35 Annex 1 Affected Population and Food Requirement in 2004 36 2 Glossary of Local Names Belg - Short rains/season from February/March to June/July (National) Azmera - Rains from early March to early June (Tigray) Tsedia - Rains from mid June to end of September (Tigray) Birkads - Traditional deep water wells Chat - Mildly narcotic shrub grown as cash crop Dega - Highlands (altitude >2500meters) Deyr - Short rains from October to November (Somali) Ellas - Traditional deep water wells Gu - Main rains from February/March to June/July (Somali) Hagaya - Short rains from October to November (Borena/Bale) Karma - Main rains from July/August to September/October (Afar) Kiremt - Main rains from July/August to September/October (National) Kolla - Lowlands (altitude <1500meters) Meher - Main harvest Sugum - Short rains from March to April (Afar) Woina Dega - Midlands (altitude 1500-2500meters) Acronyms BoA - Bureau of Agriculture CARE - CARE Ethiopia CBPP - Contagious Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia CCPP - Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency CRS - Catholic Relief Service DPPB - Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureau DPPC - Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission EMA - Ethiopia Mapping Agency FMD - Foot and Mouth Disease KAT - Kembata Alaba Tembaro MoA - Ministry of Agriculture MoH - Ministry of Health NGO - Non Governmental Organization NMSA - National Meteorological Service Agency PAs - Peasant Associations REST - Relief Society of Tigray SCF/UK - Save the Children Fund/United Kingdom SNNPR - Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region UN/OCHA - United Nations/Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UN/WFP/VAM - United Nations/World Food Program/Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping USAID-FEWS - United States Agency for International Development/Famine Early Warning System WVI/E World Vision International/Ethiopia WFP - World Food Program 3 Executive Summary In 2003 Ethiopia experienced its most severe humanitarian crisis to date. Nearly a fifth of the country’s population – 13.2 million people – needed relief assistance to survive. The food security situation at the beginning of 2004 has improved somewhat, especially in highland crop-producing areas, where a near-normal Meher season (June to September) allowed a significant increase in production over the last drought year. The November multi-agency pre-harvest assessment conducted by over 20 teams in all zones, except Benshangul Gumuz and the eastern and southern pastoral areas, confirmed that the current season’s agricultural production in most areas is expected to be much better than last year and comparable to the five-year average. Jimma, Illubabor, Arsi, East and West Shoa of Oromiya; Awi, West Gojjam and East Gojjam of Amhara; West and Noth West zones of Tigray; and pockets of Hadiya in SNNPR are expecting surplus production. However, production will be below average in Derashe, Burji, Gedeo, lowland areas of Amaro, and parts of Gamo Gofa in SNNPR; eastern Oromiya Region (East and West Hararghe); eastern and southern Tigray; and lowland areas of North Wollo, South Wollo, Wag Hamera, North Gonder, and Oromiya zones of Amhara Region will be below average. In southern and eastern parts of Tigray, there was a notable shift from long-cycle (high-yield) to short-cycle (low-yield) crops because of the near-total failure of the Azmera (Belg) rains, as well as the late start and early withdrawal of the Meher rains. A similar shift occurred in lowland areas of Oromiya Region, where the production prospect remains lower than the long-term average. This shift has a significant impact on overall production, as long-cycle crops normally account for 40% of national production. Although the underlying causes in most cases are chronic or structural, localized acute problems that have further contributed to production losses include: • Erratic and low amount of rainfall particularly in lowland areas • Loss of livestock in previous years due to recurrent drought • Livestock disease • Flash floods, heavy rainfall, water logging, hailstorms and land slides • Weed infestation, and pest and disease outbreaks • Low level of farming input supply • Problem of traction power • Failure of coffee production and coffee price and • Malaria outbreaks. In Afar Region, while pasture regenerated somewhat during a period of good rain in August, some areas (notably Gewane and Buremudaitu in Zone 3) received below normal rains and remain at risk. The regeneration of pasture for cattle and sheep, as well as browse for goats and camels, has improved the physical condition of the livestock that survived the 2002-2003 drought, but reproduction and hence milk production remain at below normal levels throughout Afar Region. Although recovery from the 2002 drought and resulting massive livestock deaths is still underway, pockets of food insecurity persist, as herds already severely depleted by the 2002-03 drought continue to face precarious pasture and water conditions. Therefore, recovery from the crisis is far from assured. 4 Pastoral areas of Somali Region, lowland Bale and Borena zones of Oromiya and South Omo Zone of SNNP regions are facing another potential crisis and an emergency condition is developing in these areas. The late onset of the Deyr season rains (October to December) in most of Somali Region has exacerbated existing water and pasture shortages, particularly in Warder, Fik, and Korahe zones, which had also experienced failure of Gu season (March-May) rains. Shinile Zone received erratic Karan (July- September) rains, following a prolonged drought, while neighboring Jijiga Zone received normal rains. The Pastoral Area Assessment of Somali Region, Borena, and South Omo to be completed by the end of December 2003 will provide further information on the food security situation in those areas, as well as the emerging crisis. Malaria remains the major threat to human health throughout the country, especially in mid- and lowland areas. Incidence of malaria has even extended to most highland and midland areas where it has not been common before. Malaria can be expected to have an impact on harvesting and on food security, especially if current outbreaks are not brought under control. Thus, although the food security outlook at the beginning of 2004 is better than last year’s, there is still cause for vigilance and concern. Food insecurity remains rampant due to chronic or structural factors such as recurring droughts (particularly in the eastern lowlands), depleted asset bases of both farmers and pastoralists, lack of purchasing power, and unstable markets. Much of SNNPR, for example, is anticipating a market drops because farmers will have to sell their produce immediately after harvest to repay loans for farming inputs (e.g. fertilizer). Moreover, health offices in Raya Azebo, Wukro, and Ganta Agfeshum (Tigray), Afder Zone (Somali Region), Eastern Hararghe (Oromiya), and lowland areas of East Gojjam Zone (Amhara) report increased signs of malnutrition, especially among children. The current situation in the pastoral areas of Somali, lowland Bale and Borena zones of Oromiya and South Omo in SNNP regions is alarming and beyond chronic crises. In cropping areas, the magnitude of the current shock, particularly the erratic rains that have affected long cycle crops of maize and sorghum in lowland areas, is severe, putting farmers in a difficult position to cope by themselves and by any means. A major humanitarian crisis is anticipated unless humanitarian assistance is provided. The multi-agency pre-harvest assessment teams determined that a total of 7,181,400 people (about 10% of the total population) will need humanitarian food assistance beginning in January 2004, while 2,187,600 will require close monitoring. Table 1 below summarizes the number of people expected to require food assistance and close monitoring in each region. Pastoral area assessment is soon to be undertaken in Somali, Borena and South Omo. Currently it is assumed that the 2003 beneficiary figure will remain the same at 1.1 million. More concrete information will be given in January/February 2004, after the end of the multi-agency pastoral area assessment is completed. Furthermore, the current estimate is based on the assumption that the 2004 Belg season and the main rainy season in the pastoral areas will be normal. Out of a total of 300 woredas needing food assistance this year, 135 (45%) have been under emergency food assistance consecutively for the past 7-10 years. As a result, out of the total population needing food assistance, four to five million are expected to be chronically food insecure while the balance are expected to be the unpredictable 5 caseload. The chronically food insecure are the most destitute and their lives and livelihoods are at risk unless adequate attention is given.