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On European Gas Markets Market Observatory for Energy DG Energy Volume 6, Issue 1 First Quarter 2013 Quarterly Reporton European Gas Markets Market Observatory for Energy DG Energy Volume 6, issue 1 First quarter 2013 Energy Our quarterly reports on gas and electricity have gone through some changes in terms of design, structure and contents. The overall aim was to make our reports more concise and reader friendly, and also more timely. At the same time, we will endeavour to make any additional analysis on the EU’s gas and electricity markets available on the Market Observatory for Energy pages of the DG Energy web site (http://ec.europa.eu/energy/observatory/index_en.htm). The Market Observatory for Energy Team, Unit A1 Energy Policy & Monitoring of electricity, gas, coal and oil markets, DG Energy. Commission européenne, B-1049 Bruxelles / Europese Commissie, B-1049 Brussel – Belgium E-mail: [email protected] Content Highlights 1 1. Gas Consumption – Production – Imports 2 2. Traded volumes on European gas hubs 6 3. LNG volumes 8 4. Gas Storage and heating degree days 12 5. Wholesale gas prices 14 5.1. International comparisons 14 5.2. Comparisons between oil, gas and coal prices in the EU 16 5.3. Wholesale gas prices on gas hubs in the EU 17 5.4. Comparing the prices of different contracts for gas in the EU 19 5.5. LNG gas prices in the EU 22 6. Retail gas prices 24 7. Glossary 30 Highlights • EU natural gas consumption continues its downward trend, with 2012 reaching a new record low level in annual consump- tion in the last decade. Annual consumption in 2012 was 4% lower than in 2011. • LNG deliveries to the EU continue to fall faster than consumption, registering a decrease of 31% in 2012 relative to 2011. Imports from Qatar, Nigeria and Algeria (the three largest exporters of LNG to the EU) were down by 35%, 31% and 18%, respectively. This trend continued over the first two months of 2013. High Asian LNG prices contributed to a drop in the share of the EU in global LNG import volumes from 27% in the first 11 months of 2011 to 21% in the same period of 2012. • EU coal consumption and imports continue to rise. EU consumption and imports of coal (hard coal and lignite) increased by, respectively, 2% and almost 9% over the first 11 months of 2012, relative to the same period in 2011 with coal imports from Colombia and the US up by 13% and 14%. Coal import volumes from Colombia and the US into the EU have doubled since 2009. • The major event over the course of the first quarter of 2013 was an unexpected and significant fall in temperatures in Northwest Europe in March 2013. This late-season cold snap led to a sharp and significant increase in demand for natural gas which in turn put pressure on gas supplies, in particular in the UK. Higher than expected demand against a background of subdued LNG import volumes and sendout to the grid, rapidly depleting storage and disruptions in supplies from Norway, contributed to soaring UK hub spot prices. • The benefits of an increasingly flexible, integrated EU gas market were evident during the cold snap with EU spot prices being effective in attracting the flow of gas to where it was needed most and quickly re-establishing the balance between supply and demand under unforeseen circumstances. Price differentials between the hubs in the UK, the Netherlands and 1 Germany encouraged strong pipeline flows to the UK, attracting gas from Germany’s storage facilities into the Dutch market, and then from the Dutch market into the UK via the BBL pipeline and the Interconnector. • The role of trading hubs as an instrument for exchange of natural gas volumes in the EU continues to increase. The volumes physically delivered on EU hubs in 2012 covered about 83% of the total consumption of natural gas in the countries covered by those hubs (UK, NL, BE, DE, FR, AT and IT), compared to 70% in 2011. • Falling oil indexation of natural gas contracts in the EU: since 2010 its share went down by 8% reaching 51% of gas consumption in Europe. In contrast, over the past 5 years spot-priced volumes have doubled, reaching 44% of gas consump- tion in 2012. Strong regional differences persist in price formation mechanisms with about 70% of gas in North-West Europe priced on a gas-on-gas (spot) basis, compared to less than 40% in Central Europe. • Wholesale gas import prices in the EU continue to be highly fragmented. Import prices of piped gas and LNG across the EU continue to vary widely. • Globally, the evolution of the benchmark UK NBP and the US Henry Hub spot prices illustrates the persisting variation among global wholesale prices for natural gas. On average in Q1, at wholesale level consumers of natural gas in the US paid 20 €/MWh less than consumers in the UK, which represents an discount of more than 65% on UK gas prices for that period. • Korea and Japan remained attractive markets to LNG exporters in the first quarter of 2013 with a premium paid for LNG deliveries in those markets of between 45-60% on the average EU LNG price. • In contrast to wholesale gas prices or to retail power prices, retail gas prices in the EU have not been converging in re- cent years, as the gap between the highest and the lowest household retail prices for gas across the EU has been increasing since 2008. Prices paid in the most expensive Member States continue to be several times higher than the price paid in the cheapest, even if taxes and duties are excluded. 1. Gas Consumption – Production – Imports • The decline in the EU’s natural gas consumption continued over the course of 2012, reaching a new lowest level in annual consumption in the last decade of 4,917 TWh, with gas losing share in power generation to coal and renewables. • In 2012, EU natural gas consumption was 4% lower than in the previous year. The decrease relative to 2010 consumption amounted to 14%. The fourth quarter of 2012 nevertheless saw an increase of 0.8% in comparison to the same period in the previous year. • Gas imports into the EU decreased by 7% in the fourth quarter of 2012 relative to the same period in 2011. Total import levels reached 4,448 TWh in 2012, this was on a par with annual import levels recorded in the last few years.. • EU production of natural gas continues its long term decline, amounting to 1,708 TWh in 2012, down by 5% on an annual basis. FIGURE 1 - EU 27 GAS CONSUMPTION, IMPORTS AND PRODUCTION (IN TWH) 2 TWh 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 QI Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Consumption Imports Production Source: Eurostat • The new historical low in annual EU natural gas consumption was registered alongside a contraction of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the EU in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2012 relative to the same quarters of 2011. The contrac- tion in the fourth quarter was -0.6% relative to the fourth quarter of 2011. FIGURE 2 - EU 27 GAS CONSUMPTION Q/Q-4 CHANGE 20% 16% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 2% 0,8% 0% -2% -5% -5% -5% -6% -6% -6% -8% -10% -8% -12% -15% -17% -20% -18% 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 QI Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: Eurostat FIGURE 3 - EU 27 GDP Q/Q-4 CHANGE (%) 3 3 2 1 2009 0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -1 2010 2011 2012 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 Source: Eurostat • In Q1 2013, weather was also an important determinant of natural gas consumption. Whereas in January and February 2013 the number of heating degree days continued to be close to the long-term average, March 2013 experienced a particu- larly high number of heating degree days, far exceeding the long term average (see Figure 13 in section 4). • Across the UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium and France as a whole, in Q1 2013 gas consumption in the power generation sector went down by 11% relative to Q1 2012. In Spain the drop was 43% in Q1 2013 relative to the same period in 2012, against strong RES generation (especially given high precipitation levels that boasted hydro generation). Gas consumption in the power sector fell by 16% in Italy and remained fairly stable in the UK. With two nuclear reactors offline since the summer of 2012, in Q1 2013 Belgium saw an increase of 65% of gas for power burn relative to Q1 2012. FIGURE 4 - GAS-FIRED POWER GENERATION IN SELECTED EU COUNTRIES mcm 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 4 0 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 France Belgium Spain Italy United Kingdom Source: Bentek/Platts • As reported in previous issues of this report, the developments in gas consumption are in stark contrast with the recent evolution of consumption and import of coal to the EU. The graph below shows that alongside the 4% annual decline in gas consumption, EU consumption of coal (in this graph, hard coal and lignite) has stayed relatively stable and imports have increased by almost 9% over the first 11 months of 2012, relative to the same period in 2011.
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