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Oil and Gas Dependence of EU-15 Countries A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Christie, Edward Research Report Oil and Gas Dependence of EU-15 Countries wiiw Research Report, No. 343 Provided in Cooperation with: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) - Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche (wiiw) Suggested Citation: Christie, Edward (2007) : Oil and Gas Dependence of EU-15 Countries, wiiw Research Report, No. 343, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), Vienna This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/204115 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Forschungsberichte wiiw Research Reports | 343 Edward Christie Oil and Gas Dependence of EU-15 Countries December 2007 Edward Christie is a research economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Edward Christie The present paper is a revised version of a study Oil and Gas Dependence commissioned by Bank Austria Creditanstalt (UniCredit Group). of EU-15 Countries Contents Executive summary..................................................................................................................i Introduction..............................................................................................................................1 Part I: Intensity and vulnerability indicators for the EU-15..............................................3 Fuel intensity indicators for industry sectors .................................................................6 Import dependence .....................................................................................................12 Imports by country of origin – crude oil .......................................................................14 Imports by country of origin – natural gas...................................................................18 Combined vulnerability indicators ...............................................................................21 Electricity generation in the EU-15..............................................................................24 Part II: The European Union’s energy security debate ..................................................29 Russia’s reliability as an energy supplier ....................................................................29 Russia’s incentives......................................................................................................31 Selected transit issues.................................................................................................33 The diversification debate ...........................................................................................35 Russia’s expansion within the European Union .........................................................41 An alternative future: Russia’s energy crunch ............................................................42 The European Union’s policy options .........................................................................45 References ............................................................................................................................52 Appendix A – Fuel intensities of industries ...........................................................................53 Appendix B – Oil imports by source country.........................................................................55 Appendix C – Transport and storage indicators ...................................................................56 List of Tables and Figures Table 1 Ranking of EU-15 countries by energy product intensity in industry, 2005 .......................... 6 Table 2 Petroleum products intensive industries, top 20, EU-15, 2005 ............................................. 8 Table 3 Natural gas intensive industries, top 20, EU-15, 2005 .......................................................... 9 Table 4 Petroleum product intensity of EU-15 transport sectors, 2004............................................ 11 Table 5 Production, trade and import dependence for crude oil, ktoe, 2005 ................................... 13 Table 6 Production, trade and import dependence for natural gas, ktoe, 2005............................... 14 Table 7 Crude oil imports into the EU-15 by source country, 2005.................................................. 15 Table 8 Crude oil import concentration, EU-15 countries, 2005....................................................... 15 Table 9 Extra-EEA crude oil imports, country concentration index, 2005........................................ 16 Table 10 Oil import vulnerability index, EU-15 countries, 2005.......................................................... 18 Table 11 Natural gas imports by country of origin, 2005, part I .......................................................... 19 Table 12 Natural gas imports by country of origin, 2005, part II ......................................................... 19 Table 13 Extra-EEA natural gas imports, country concentration index, 2005.................................... 20 Table 14 Natural gas import vulnerability index, EU-15 countries, 2005............................................ 21 Table 15 Combined vulnerability indicator – crude oil......................................................................... 22 Table 16 Combined vulnerability indicator – natural gas .................................................................... 23 Table 17 Share of petroleum products and of natural gas in electricity generation........................... 25 Table 18 Electricity generation (TWh) in France by energy source ................................................... 25 Table 19 Electricity generation (% of total) in Germany, by energy source ....................................... 27 Table 20 Reserves of crude oil and natural gas by country, end 2006 .............................................. 36 Table A1 Petroleum products and natural gas intensities of EU-15 industries, part I ........................ 53 Table A2 Petroleum products and natural gas intensities of EU-15 industries, part II ....................... 54 Table B1 Crude oil import shares by (non-EU) source country, 2005 ................................................ 55 Table C1 Security stockholdings of petroleum products by category ................................................. 56 Table C2 Underground gas storage capacities by country, 2004/2005.............................................. 56 Table C3 Exports of crude oil from the Former Soviet Union, by type of route .................................. 57 Table C4 Selected existing and planned oil pipelines for Westbound CIS resources........................ 58 Table C5 Gazprom’s westbound export pipelines ............................................................................... 59 Table C6 Westbound pipelines for (non-Russian) Caspian gas ......................................................... 60 Table C7 Selected North Sea and Baltic pipelines and interconnectors ............................................ 61 Table C8 North African gas export pipelines to Europe ...................................................................... 62 Figure 1 Real energy intensity, 2005, ktoe per billion dollar of GDP at 2000 PPP ............................ 3 Figure 2 Natural gas intensity, 2005, ktoe per billion dollar of GDP at 2000 PPP ............................. 4 Figure 3 Petroleum product intensity, 2005, ktoe per billion dollar of GDP at 2000 PPP .................. 5 Figure 4 Petroleum products intensity of industry by country, 1995, 2000 and 2004....................... 10 Figure 5 Natural gas intensity of industry by country, 1995, 2000 and 2004 .................................... 10 Figure 6 Fuel mix in electricity generation, % of total, EU-15, 2005 .................................................. 24 Figure 7 Electricity generation (% of total) in the UK by energy source ............................................ 26 Figure 8 Russian coercive actions in energy relations with the CIS, by motive, 1991-2006 ............ 30 Executive summary This study seeks to answer two questions: first, which countries and industries within the EU-15 group of countries are most vulnerable to possible supply shocks with respect to crude oil and with respect to natural gas and, second, what is the current state of the EU’s debate on Europe’s energy security. In order to assess the first question, a set
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