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European Energy Policy and Turkey's Energy Role

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European Energy Policy and Turkey's Energy Role EUROPEAN ENERGY POLICY AND TURKEY’S ENERGY ROLE: WILL THE ACCESSION PROCESS BE AFFECTED? A Master’s Thesis by SEDA DUYGU SEVER Department of International Relations Bilkent University Ankara May 2010 To My Parents EUROPEAN ENERGY POLICY AND TURKEY’S ENERGY ROLE: WILL THE ACCESSION PROCESS BE AFFECTED? The Institute of Economics and Social Sciences of Bilkent University by SEDA DUYGU SEVER In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF ARTS In THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BİLKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA May 2010 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Ali Tekin Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Yüksel İnan Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations. --------------------------------- Asst. Prof. Aylin Güney Examining Committee Member Approval of the Institute of Economics and Social Sciences --------------------------------- Prof. Dr. Erdal Erel Director ABSTRACT EUROPEAN ENERGY POLICY AND TURKEY’S ENERGY ROLE: WILL THE ACCESSION PROCESS BE AFFECTED? Sever, Seda Duygu M.A., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Asst. Prof. Ali Tekin May 2010 Increasing concerns for energy security urge the European Union countries to develop common energy policies. In this respect, diversification of energy suppliers and transit routes emerges as the most feasible policy for the EU to address the problems arising out of its energy dependency. At this point, Turkey’s strategic geographical position offers an energy bridge which has the potential of linking the EU with diversified suppliers. This thesis, examines European efforts to create a common energy policy and Turkey’s role in European energy security strategies. Based on the views that Turkey’s energy bridge position will accelerate the accession process and will bring full membership, this study questions whether energy can really be a factor for Turkey’s membership. Taking into consideration the impact of the absorption capacity and negative European public support on the long candidacy of Turkey, in addition to the examination of relevant literature, the answer to this question is investigated through the analysis of European public opinion. Relying on official Turkish and EU documents, official statistics and annual Eurobarometer surveys, contrary to the expectations, the analysis reaches to the conclusion that for full membership, Turkey’s energy role for Europe is an important yet insufficient factor on its own. Key Words: Energy Security, Turkey and the European Union, European Public Opinion iii ÖZET AVRUPA B İRL İĞİ ’N İN ENERJ İ POL İTİKASI VE TÜRK İYE’N İN ENERJ İ ROLÜ: ÜYEL İK SÜREC İ ETK İLENECEK M İ? Sever, Seda Duygu Yüksek Lisans, Uluslararası İli şkiler Tez Yöneticisi: Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ali Tekin May 2010 Enerji güvenli ğine dair artan endi şeler, Avrupa Birli ği ülkelerini ortak politikalar geli ştirmeye yönlendirmi ştir. Bu ba ğlamda, Avrupa Birli ği’nin enerji ba ğımlılı ğından kaynaklı sorunlara dair uygulayabilece ği en etkin politika ülke ve güzergah ba ğlamında enerji kaynaklarının çe şitlendirilmesidir. Bu noktada, Türkiye’nin stratejik co ğrafi pozisyonu Avrupa Birli ği’ni çe şitli üreticilere ba ğlayacak bir enerji köprüsü konumuna sahiptir. Bu tez, Avrupa Birliği’nin ortak bir enerji politikası olu şturma çabasını ve Türkiye’nin, Avrupa’nın enerji güvenli ği stratejilerindeki rolünü incelemektedir. Bu çalı şma, Türkiye’nin enerji köprüsü konumunun müzakere sürecini hızlandırıp tam üyelik getirece ği görü şlerinden yola çıkarak, enerjinin gerçekten üyelik için bir faktör olup olmadı ğını sorgulamaktadır. Hazmetme kapasitesinin ve dü şük Avrupa kamuoyu deste ğinin, Türkiye’nin uzayan adaylık sürecindeki etkisi göz önünde bulundurularak bu sorunun cevabı literatürdeki kaynaklara ek olarak Avrupa kamuoyunun analiz edilmesi ile ara ştırılmı ştır. Türkiye ve Avrupa Birli ği’nin resmi belgelerine, resmi istatistiklere ve yıllık Eurobarometre raporlarına dayanarak yapılan analiz, beklentilerin aksine, tam üyelik için, Türkiye’nin enerji konumunun önemli ancak tek ba şına yetersiz bir faktör oldu ğu sonucuna ula şmaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enerji Güvenli ği, Türkiye ve Avrupa Birli ği, Avrupa Kamuoyu iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Asst. Prof. Ali Tekin for his guidance, support and patience throughout the preparation of my thesis. I also would like to express my thanks to Prof. Dr. Yüksel İnan and Asst. Prof. Aylin Güney for spending their valuable time to read my thesis and kindly participating in my thesis committee. It is my pleasure to acknowledge the generosity of the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜB İTAK) for offering me financial support to conduct my graduate studies. I owe my deepest gratitude to my parents, Leman Sever and Zafer Sever. Their encouragement, understanding and endless faith in me are the real motivation of all my accomplishments, including this thesis. v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ………………………………………………………………………iii ÖZET ……………………………………………………………………………...iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ………………………………………………………v TABLE OF CONTENTS ………………………………………………………...vi LIST OF TABLES ……………………………………………………………...viii LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………...ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ……………………………..x CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………..1 CHAPTER 2: EUROPEAN ENERGY POLICY……………………………….6 2.1 What is European Energy Policy?...........................................................9 2.2 What is Energy Security?......................................................................13 2.3 Evolution of European Energy Policy………………………………...23 2.4 What Makes The Achievement of European Energy Policy So Difficult?..........................................................................................39 2.4.1 Different Preferences…………………………………………...40 2.4.2 European Energy Regulator…………………………………….47 2.4.3 Market vs. Geopolitics………………………………………….49 2.5 Conclusion…………………………………………………………….63 CHAPTER 3: EXTERNAL DIMENSION OF EUROPEAN ENERGY POLICY ……………………………………………..……….66 3.1 Europe’s External Energy Policies……………………………………68 3.2 Relations With Major Energy Producers……………………………...75 3.2.1 Norway...………………………………………………………..81 3.2.2 Africa……………………………………………………………83 3.2.3 Middle East……………………………………………………..84 3.2.4 Caspian Region…………………………………………………87 vi 3.2.5 Russia…………………………………………………………...90 3.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………………….97 CHAPTER 4: TURKEY’S ENERGY ROLE AS A TRANS-EUROPEAN ENERGY CORRIDOR ………………………………………………...100 4.1 Turkey’s Existing and Planned Pipeline Systems…………………...101 4.1.1 Existing Pipeline System………………………………………102 4.1.2 Projects in the Planning Stages………………………………..107 4.1.2.1 Trans Caspian Pipeline Projects…………………………107 4.1.2.2 Arab Gas Pipeline Project……………………………….108 4.1.2.3 Nabucco………………………………………………….110 4.2 Major Factors Effective on Turkey’s Energy Bridge Position………113 4.2.1 Supply Side Hurdles…………………………………………...114 4.2.2 The LNG Challenge…………………………………………...119 4.2.3 The Bosphorus Issue…………………………………………..120 4.2.4 The Russian Question……………………………………….....121 4.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………………...127 CHAPTER 5: TURKEY’S ENERGY ROLE AND ITS POTENTIAL MEMBERSHIP ………………………………………………………...130 5.1 Energy Security and Turkish Membership…………………………..131 5.2 European Public Opinion……………………………………………136 5.2.1 Why Public Opinion Matters?....................................................137 5.2.2 What the Public Opinion Says?..................................................139 5.3 Conclusion…………………………………………………………...144 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION………………………………………………...149 SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………..154 APPENDICES A. DATA RELATIVE TO CHAPTER 4…………………………….....170 B. DATA RELATIVE TO CHAPTER 5……………………………….173 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Crude Oil Imports into the European Union…………………………….78 Table 2: Natural Gas Imports into the European Union………………………….80 Table 3: The EU – Turkey – Russia Trade Relations…………..……………….125 Table 4: Public Support for Turkey and the EU Energy Dependency…………..140 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Development of EU Energy Policies Over Time………………………24 Figure 2: Gross Inland Consumption Shares by Type of Fuel, in EU-27………...76 Figure 3: Imports of Crude Oil by Country of Origin…………………………….79 Figure 4: Imports of Natural Gas by Country of Origin………………………….80 Figure 5: Arguments about Turkey……………………………………………...143 ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS Bcf: Billion Cubic Feet Bcm: Billion Cubic Meters BOTA Ş: Turkish Petroleum Pipeline Corporation BP: British Petroleum BPS: The Baltic Pipeline System BTC: Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan Oil Pipeline BTE: Baku – Tbilisi – Erzurum Gas Pipeline CEER: Council of European Energy Regulators CFSP: Common Foreign and Security Policy CO 2: Carbon Dioxide EBRD: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECSC: European Coal and Steel Community ECT: Energy Charter Treaty EEZ: Exclusive Economic Zone EIB: European Investment Bank ENP: European Neighbourhood Policy ERGEG: European Regulators’ Group for Electricity and Gas EU: The European Union EURATOM: European Atomic Energy Community x G8: The
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