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Rural Carlisle West SHMA Template 2009

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Rural Carlisle West SHMA Template 2009 Based on Ordnance Survey map material with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationary Office. Crown Copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown Copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Cumbria County Council. Licence No LA076546. 2006. 2 Rural Carlisle West Housing Market Assessment Index 1. Current Market Profile 8 - 9 Headline Findings Targets Key Issues 2. Balanced Housing Market Indicators 10 Market Drivers 3. The Current Housing Market 11 - 49 Stage 1: The Demographic and Economic Context 11 - 40 1.1 Demography and Household Types 1.2 National and Regional Economic Policy 1.3 Employment Levels and Structure 1.4 Incomes and Earnings Stage 2: The Housing Stock 41 - 43 2.1 The Dwelling Profile 2.2 Stock Condition 2.3 Shared Housing and Communal Establishments Stage 3: The Active Market 43 - 47 3.1-3.2 The cost of buying or renting a property and affordability 3.3 Overcrowding and under-occupation 3.4 Vacancies, available supply and turnover by tenure 3.5 Second Homes and Vacant Dwellings Stage 4: Bringing the Evidence Together 47 - 49 4.1 Mapping Market Characteristics 4.2 Trends and Drivers 4.3 Issues of Future Policy/ Strategy 4. The Future Housing Market 50 - 68 Stage 1: Projecting changes in future numbers of households Stage 2: Future Economic Performance Stage 3: Future Affordability Stage 4: Bringing the Evidence Together 5. Housing Need (affordable housing) 69 - 79 Stage 1 & 2 Updated Housing Requirement Stage 3: Affordable Housing Supply Permissions and Completions: • Market led and affordable housing 3 • Affordable housing only- permissions and completions 2006-08 • Market led and affordable housing delivery • Units taken out of management 2006-2008 Stage 4: Housing Requirements of Households in Need Stage 5: Bringing the Evidence Together • Updated estimate of net annual housing need • Key issues for future policy/ strategy • Joining up across the assessment 6. Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups 80 - 87 • Homelessness • Supported Housing • Elderly persons needs • Gypsy and Traveller accommodation • Low Cost Home Ownership 7. Report Conclusions – Bringing the Evidence Together 88 - 91 Bibliography 91 Appendices 92 - 132 Acknowledgements Paula Kennerley, Cumbria County Council Stuart Frank, Cumbria Vision Note to the Strategic Housing Market Assessment The SHMA documents have been prepared jointly by each Cumbria district in consultation with local and county stakeholders and have been compiled using the Governments’ Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance Version 2, August 2007. The documents are not intended to provide definitive estimates of housing need, demand and market conditions. However they aim to provide insights into how housing markets operate both now and in the future. They are intended to allow an evidence base upon which to develop planning and housing policies by considering the characteristics of the housing market, how key factors work together and the probable scale of change in future housing needs and demand (SHMA Guidance, 2007, pp7-9). To allow ease of reference each stage of the assessment follows the same order as the Guidance. Data sources occasionally differ from those recommended in the Guidance where they have been unavailable or where more robust up to date information has been accessed. The following analysis looks at the housing market area and provides information on the wider District and Cumbrian level where this adds contextual information. For a full methodology and checklist of core outputs and process please see appendix 3 & 4. 4 Abbreviations CCC Carlisle City Council CLG Communities and Local Government (formerly DCLG) HCA Homes and Communities Agency (formerly Housing Corporation) HMA Housing Market Area HNS Housing Need Survey LCHO Low Cost Home Ownership LSVT Large Scale Voluntary Transfer (of former council housing stock) RSL Registered Social Landlord (or Housing Association) SHMA Strategic Housing Market Assessment TSA Tenant Services Authority TTWAs Travel to work areas 5 Rural Carlisle West Housing Market Assessment Tables / Graphs Table Title Page No. 1 Age Range 11 2 Households 11 3 Ethnic Group 12 4 Ethnicity and Minority Groups (Carlisle) 12 5 Changes to BME Group 2001 to 2007 12 6 Economic Activity 2001 23 7 Economically Inactive – Other 23 8 GVA Per Head of the Population 24 9 JSA Claimants Monthly Count – July 2008 24 10 JSA Claimant Count (Yearly Average) 24 11 Occupation Levels (%) 2007/08 26 12 HMA Occupation Level 2001 26 13 Industry of Employment; Count & Percentage 2006-7 27 14 Industry of Employment; Count & Percentage Jan 07 – Dec 07 (Residence Based) 28 15 GP Registrations from 2004 – 2007 29 16 Workers Registration Scheme (May 2004 – Sept 2007) 29 17 Employment Industry Per District (Migrant Workers) 30 18 NVQ Qualifications 31 19 Median Income 2005 – 2007 31 20 Gross Weekly Median Pay by Residence 2005 – 2007 32 21 Gross Weekly Pay (Mean & Median) % Change 2005-07 32 22 Ward Deprivation in Carlisle District 33 23 No. Of Employed Residents Per LAD 38 24 Employed residents who work outside Cumbria 39 25 Employed residents who work outside the district in which they live 39 26 The workforce who live outside Cumbria 40 27 The workforce who live outside the district in which they work 40 28 Tenure 41 29 Property Type 41 30 House Size 41 31 Decent Homes March 2008 42 32 Empty Properties in Rural Carlisle West 42 33 Shared Housing & Communal Establishments 42 34 House Price / Household Incomes 2007 43 35 House Prices in Rural Carlisle West 2005 – 2008 43 36 Private & Social Sector Rents 44 37 Occupancy Rates 45 38 Access to Social Rented Housing 45 39 Second & Vacant Dwellings 46 40 Second & Vacant Dwellings; Council Tax Registrations 46 41 Mean House Prices & Volume of Sales 2007 – 2008 47 42 Zero Net Migration 51 43 Five Year Migration Led Run 51 44 Five Year Dwelling Led 51 45 Dwelling Led, based on Regional Spatial Strategy 52 46 Dwelling Led (Growth Point Bid) 52 6 Table Title Page No 47 Baseline, Aspirational & Worst Case Scenario; Employment Growth 2006 – 2016 55 48 Baseline, Aspirational & Worst Case Scenario; GVA Growth 2006 – 2016 55 49 Baseline, Aspirational & Worst Case Scenario; Employment Growth – Carlisle District 2006 – 2016 56 50 Baseline, Aspirational & Worst Case Scenario; GVA Growth Carlisle District 2006 - 2016 57 51 Scenario 1: Labour Force Led, No Change 60 52 Scenario 2: Labour Force Led, Experian Baseline 61 53 Scenario 3: Labour Force Led, Aspirational Growth 61 54 Scenario 4: Labour Force Led, Worst Case 61 55 Scenario 5: Migration Led, Labour Force Impact 61 56 Cumbria Wide Figures Scenario’s 1 to 5 63 57 Scenario’s based upon House Prices until 2016 66 58 Annual Affordable Housing Requirements 69 59 Updated Housing Demand, Unsuitable Housing & Affordable Housing 70 60 Requirements Based on Population Growth, Household Formation & Economic Forecast 71 61 Total Housing; Planning Permissions 72 62 Total Housing; Completions 72 63 Development of Affordable Housing Units 73 64 Affordable Units by Bedroom Size & Gross HMA Total 74 65 District Total (Net) 74 66 Units Taken Out of Management 2006-9 75 67 Net Affordable Housing Requirements 77 68 Homeless Cases 80 69 Causes of Homelessness 80 70 Homeless Provision across the Carlisle District 82 - 83 71 Supported Housing 85 Graph Title Page No. 1 Historic Variation in the UK Interest Rate 15 2 GVA Per Head % Difference between the North West & UK 16 3 Recent Developments in the Housing Market 19 4 Indexed GVA Per Head (UK = 100) 20 5 No. of Dwellings Required by the Population 62 6 House Price Index 64 7 House Price & Sales Volume – Cumbria Council 65 December 2009 7 Rural Carlisle West Housing Market Assessment 1. Current Market Profile Current Market Profile Carlisle Rural West encompasses the wards of Burgh and Dalston. The village of Dalston is the largest local service centre. Rural West has the highest lower quartile house prices of all Carlisle’s Housing Market Areas. Unfortunately, 2009 has seen job losses at the Stead McAlpin textile plant at Cummersdale, which is a major blow to the local economy. The Nestle factory at Dalston remains the largest employer in the area, and there is also an industrial estate at Barras Lane, Dalston. Much of the rest of the employment in the housing market area is based on agriculture or small cottage industries. The City Council is keen to place a stronger focus on the Roman theme and Hadrian’s Wall brand, in respect of Carlisle’s tourism offer. This provides opportunities and sustainability to small-scale businesses in Burgh ward, such as B & B’s and pubs. Cumbria Tourism has estimated Hadrian’s Wall product investment could lead to in the region of 100 new jobs. The North West Development Route will hopefully help to advance employment and transport links, including linking Carlisle West with Kingmoor Park. Headline Findings • 43 households per year in need of affordable housing over the next five years (District Housing Survey 2006). • Need identified is predominantly for general need rather older households – particularly for larger 3+ bedroom properties, with the need for social rented accommodation outweighing the need for intermediate housing almost 2:1. • Earnings to property price ratio – 7.4 x (CACI Paycheck & Streetvalue). • The threat to jobs posed by the current economic recession poses a parallel threat to the housing market. Nationally – Government initiatives include the Mortgage Rescue Scheme, launched in early 2009, but there is only enough funding available to assist around 6000 households nationally – compared to 13,161 repossessions in the third quarter of 2008 – representing a 92% increase on the same quarter the previous year (source: CLG & Financial Services Authority). Targets The following targets have been devised for this market area. In order to achieve these appropriate actions from the Cumbria Housing Strategy Action Plan will be applied.
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