1 9 9 5 )F\E P O R T

$1 9 9 5 )F\E P O R T$ 1 9 9 5 )f\e p o r t International Food Policy Research Institute KH3S5RE gram reflects worldwide collaboration with Research Institute was established in 1975 governments and private and public institu to identify and analyze alternative national tions interested in increasing food produc- distrib- and international strategies and policies for tion and improving the equity of its meeting food needs of the developing world ution. Research results are disseminated to administra- on a sustainable basis, with particula policymakers, opinion formers, emphasis on low-income countries and on tors, policy analysts, researchers, and others the poorer groups in those countries. While concerned with national and international the research effort is geared to the precise food and agricultural policy. IFPRI is a objective of contributing to the reduction of member of the Consultative Group on hunger and malnutrition, the factors International Agricultural Research, an involved are many and wide-ranging, association of 16 international research requiring analysis of underlying processes centers, and receives support from a number and extending beyond a narrowly defined of governments, multilateral organizations, food sector. The Institute's research pro- foundations, and other sources. 1995 port International Food Policy Research Institute Contents 4 Board of Trustees 5 Chairman's Message David E. Bell 6 Director General's Introduction Per Pinstrup-Andersen 8 Essay: Food Prices and Food Security: Where Are We Headed? Mark W. Rosegrant 13 A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment 15 Research and Outreach Environment and Production Technology Division Markets and Structural Studies Division Food Consumption and Nutrition Division Trade and Macroeconomics Division Outreach Division 25 Collaboration 29 Publications 37 Personnel 42 Financial Statements s (Board of Trustees David E. Bell, Chairman James Ingram Professor Emeritus Visiting Fellow Harvard Center for Population and National Centre for Development Studies Development Studies Australian National University Cambridge, U.S.A. Canberra, Australia Henri Carsalade Nora Lustig Assistant Director-General Senior Fellow Food and Agriculture Organization The Brookings Institution of the United Nations (FAO) Washington, D.C, U.S.A. Rome, Italy Benno Ndulu Gordon Conway Executive Director Vice-Chancellor African Economic Research Consortium University of Sussex Nairobi, Kenya Brighton, United Kingdom I. G. Patel Godfrey Gunatilleke Former Director Executive Vice-Chairman London School of Economics The Marga Institute Baroda, India Colombo, Sri Lanka Martin Pineiro Ibrahim Saad Ahmed Hagrass Director, Grupo CEO Former Deputy Minister Buenos Aires, Argentina Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation Hiroya Sano Cairo, Egypt President Japan Fisheries Association Uwe Holtz Tokyo, Japan Professor of Political Science University of Bonn Abdoulaye Sawadogo Bonn, Germany Assistant Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization Susan Horton of the United Nations (FAO) Professor Rome, Italy University of Toronto Toronto, Canada Per Pinstrup-Andersen Director General, Ex Officio Chairman's Message TiHE YEAR 1995 was the occasion of IFPRI's June 13-15, 1995. IFPRI published many docu 20th anniversary. A high point in the celebra ments presenting the 2020 analytical results, tion was the anniversary lecture, given on including a summary document in October. November 29 by Walter Falcon, director of the IFPRI staff continue to present the findings of Institute for International Studies at Stanford the 2020 program to governments, international University and himself a noted researcher and organizations, nongovernmental organizations, adviser on food policy in many Asian countries. the private sector, and others whose policies Falcon spoke on the substantial gains over the and actions are crucial to the success of the last 20 years in the world's understanding of vision. The Board of Trustees is pleased that food policy issues gains to which IFPRI has the Consultative Group on International made major contributions. At the same time, Agricultural Research (CGIAR), at its Falcon pointed to serious risks to food supply International Centers Week in late 1995, and distribution in the years ahead notably, endorsed the 2020 Vision analyses as important the unwarranted and dangerous complacency contributions to food security efforts, empha about food and agriculture into which govern sized the role of research in attempting to fulfill ments and international organizations have the 2020 Vision, and agreed that CGIAR fallen in recent years, and the growing need for programs should take note of 2020 Vision research on urban food consumption and analyses and recommendations. demand as the inexorable march toward urban These special events and activities should ization continues. not be allowed to obscure the substantial, con During the year IFPRI also brought to culmi tinuing research that constitutes the bulk of nation a wide-ranging effort, in collaboration IFPRI's regular agenda. The Board of Trustees with several national and international institu has noted with pleasure the sustained efforts tions, to build consensus toward "A 2020 of IFPRI's director general and his senior Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the colleagues to maintain and increase the high Environment." This effort, which began in quality of IFPRI's staff, to conduct IFPRI's 1993 and will continue into the future, drew on research in collaboration with outstanding past research by IFPRI and many others, plus scientists in both developing and industrialized new analytical work. The purpose is to build a countries, and to use the most advanced broad common understanding of the nature of methodologies for dealing with the complex the food, agriculture, and environmental prob and difficult problems IFPRI addresses. lems that will confront the world over the next The Board has confidence in IFPRI as a 25 years, and of the policies that should be well-managed and highly productive research adopted to deal with those problems. To this organization and thanks IFPRI's many donors end, numerous meetings were held in various and collaborators for their sustained support. parts of the world, including a major interna tional conference in Washington, D.C, on David E. Bell director General's Introduction als WE APPROACH the beginning of the is likely to be a short-term or a long-term next millennium, the International Food phenomenon. Policy Research Institute finds itself grappling with some of the world's most pressing issues. The political landscape is being trans Can farmers grow enough food to feed a future formed, with many formerly command world population of 8 to 10 billion? Can economies rapidly making the transition developing countries find ways to boost food to market economies. In 1995, IFPRI production and protect the natural resources researchers began working in Vietnam for on which that production rests? Can the inci the first time. dence of hunger and malnutrition in develop ing countries be reduced? Can we help the Global communications are changing at world's women reach their full economic and breathtaking speed. Among other things, intellectual potential? Can we chart a path for IFPRI has established a presence on the world agriculture to be an instrument for eco World Wide Web. nomic progress and poverty reduction? These issues are urgent now and may be even more In 1995, IFPRI continued its comprehen urgent in the next century. sive program of research and outreach on Coping with these difficult questions environment and production technologies, requires a research agenda that evolves with food markets, food consumption and nutri changing global conditions. For example: tion, and trade and macroeconomics. Among the many valuable products of this effort, The world's population is becoming which are described later in this report, a few increasingly urban. IFPRI is responding by were particularly timely: The 2020 Vision creating new programs on urbanization action plan helped clarify a long-running and social safety nets for the poor. global debate about future food security. Several reports on the role of women in agri Micronutrient malnutrition now affects an culture and household food security coincided estimated 2 billion people. IFPRI work just with the Fourth World Conference on getting under way on micronutrients could Women in Beijing. play an important role in improving No question is more relevant than the human nutrition in developing countries. future of the world's food supply and people's food security. Can global food production keep After generally falling for several decades, up with population growth, and will all people grain prices have taken a sharp upward be able to meet their food needs? These were turn in recent years. IFPRI began the central questions of a major IFPRI initia research to determine whether this shift tive A 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, 6 and the Environment. In 1995, the 2020 tion models, including IFPRI's 2020 model, Vision initiative included a major international project that grain prices will continue to fol conference in Washington, D.C, and publica low a long-term downward trend. Last year, tion of a report summing up the 2020 Vision, however, grain traders began to wonder if the challenge that lies ahead, and recom they were about to relive the world food cri mended action. The conference and report sis of the early 1970s. Prices for wheat, rice, have heightened

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