149 148 , includingcountriesinAsiaandAfrica.Israel and of countrieswithasmall,possiblyemergingmarket for by adisparate group has beenidentifiedasatransitcountry ates, aprominent stopover pointforairpassengertraffic, Emirates and Israel (in that order). The United Arab Emir seized inHong Kong, China,followed by theUnited Arab aggregate quantitiesofcocaineseizures inAsiawere those which countriesare affectedfirst.In 2012,thelargest including affluence sumption, trafficking and trade in cocaine emerge, factors its firstinroads inthiscontinent,andaspocketsofcon to changethatassessment.Nevertheless, cocainehasmade and themostrecent available evidencedoesnotgive reason The extentofcocaineuseinAsiahasalwaysbeenlimited, the United Republic of Tanzania. global scale,have alsoincreased inrecent years, notablyin Seizures of cocaine in East Africa, while still small on a plete thepicture ofthe situationinthatcountry. the paucityofsupply-sidedata,itwasnotpossibletocom ently expandingconsumermarket forcocaine.Owingto firming thecontinuedexistenceofasizeable andappar 15-64 agebracketin2008to1.02percent2011,con- rose from 0.78 per cent of the general population in the The estimatedprevalence ofcocaineuseinSouth Africa a linkwithSouth Africa. tions, possiblyincludingAsia;itisalsolikelythatthere is Note: Prevalencefiguresdisplayedasmovingaverage. Source: UNODCannualreport questionnaire. Fig. 39.

Price per pure gram (United States dollars) See alsotheWorld Repor Drug none were seized enteringtheregion from South Africa. 9 seized by Nigeria) were seized ontheirwaytoSouth Africa,but since 2006,asmallnumber(14)ofcocaine consignments(including among individualcocaineseizures madein West andCentralAfrica yearenance forseized from cocaineevery 2009to2012.H Nigeria identifiedSouth Africaasbeingamongthecountriesofprov - 100 150 200 250 300 50 Purity-adjustedretail price (2012dollars) Prevalenceof cocaineuse inthe past-year (age15-64) 0

2003-2005 countries, 2003-2012 Europe, weightedbypopulationof adjusted priceinWestern andCentral Cocaine consumptionandpurity-

2004-2006 149

appeartoplay a role in determining 2005-2007 148

t 2013,p. 40. 2006-2008

2007-2009

2008-2010

2009-2011

2010-2012

1 1.5 2 owever, - - - - Prevalence (percentage) 152 151 150 ity over thatperiod. theassumptionofapossibleincreasesupports inavailabil Afghanistan between December 2011 andDecember 2012 tons in 2011. The decline in the price of resin in estimated at 1,400 tons in 2012, compared with 1,300 resin production, duetohigheryieldsper hectare, was 10,000 ha,down from 12,000hain2011.But potential 2012, thetotalarea undercultivation ofcannabiswas basis ofavailable cultivation andproduction estimates,in Middle EastandSouth-West Asia.In Afghanistan, onthe countriesinNorthis confinedtoonlyafew Africa,the inthe world, country duction. While cannabisherbisgrown in almostevery estimate thegloballevels ofcannabiscultivation andpro - indoor warehouse operations, thus making it difficult to ranging from personalcultivation tolarge-scalefarmand remains widespread in most regions, Cultivation andproduction F. 25 kg)seized inJapan, Saudi Arabiaand Thailand in2011. of the population, were the quantities (each in excess of below 100kgin2011;more significant,relative tothesize countries. with Jordan andtheSyrian astransit ArabRepublic serving Lebanon appear to be destination countries for cocaine, Note: Prevalencefiguresdisplayedasmovingaverage (STRIDE) databaseoftheUnitedStatesDrugEnforcement Agency. from theSystemtoRetrieveInformationfrom DrugEvidence Abuse andMentalHealthServicesAdministrationpricedata Source: UNODCannualreport questionnaire, and Substance Fig. 40.

Price per pure gram (United States dollars) 100 120 140 160 180 200 stan opiumpricemonitoring monthlyreport” (December 2012). ofCounter-N UNODC andAfghanistan,Ministry World Report 2013. Drug UNODC annualreport questionnaire andotherofficialdata. CANNABIS: OVERVIEW 20 40 60 80 Purity-adjusted retail (2012 dollars) retail price Purity-adjusted of use in 15-64) the cocaine (age Prevalence past-year 0

150

2003-2005 2003-2012 adjusted price,UnitedStates, Cocaine prevalence andpurity- Annualseizures inChinaandIndia were

2004-2006 152

151 2005-2007 theproduction of cannabis resin 2006-2008

2007-2009

2008-2010

2009-2011 F. Cannabis:overview arcotics, “Afghani-

2010-2012 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

- Prevalence (percentage) 39 WORLD DRUG REPORT 2014 40 1. RECENT STATISTICS AND TREND ANALYSIS OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET

Among countries reporting in 2012 through the annual South Asia (India and Sri Lanka) and most expensive in report questionnaire, Italy, the United States and Ukraine East and South-East Asia. reported eradication of a large number of plants and cul- As for eradication of outdoor sites and plants, the United tivation sites. States reported a major decrease in sites eradicated (6,470 Seizures sites eradicated in 2012 compared with 23,622 sites in Seizures of hashish (cannabis resin) Global cannabis herb seizures in 2012 were reported at Fig. 42. worldwideSeizures ofand cannabis in selected resin countries, worldwide 5,350 tons, down from the 6,260 tons reported in 2011. and in selected2003 -countries,2012 2003-2012 With the exception of the Caribbean and Europe, seizures 1,800 have declined slightly in most regions. The largest quanti- ties of cannabis herb were seized in North America, which 1,600 accounts for over 64 per cent of seizures worldwide. 1,400 In contrast to cannabis herb, cannabis resin seizures 1,200 increased in 2012, with 1,269 tons seized, compared with 1,000 Tons 1,058 tons in 2011. Resin seizures increased significantly 800 in Afghanistan, from 62 tons in 2011 to 160 tons in 2012, 600 and in North Africa (mainly due to increases reported in Algeria (rising from 53 tons to 157 tons) and, to a lesser 400 extent, in Morocco (rising from 126 tons to 137 tons). 200 Spain accounts for 26 per cent of global cannabis resin 0 seizures; although seizures in that country declined slightly

from 2011 (356 tons) to 2012 (326 tons). 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Rest of the world Based on an analysis of supply indicators for cannabis herb North Africa at the retail level (see annex for details), availability remains Near and Middle East /South-West Asia high in the Americas and appears to be growing in the Western, Central and South-Eastern Europe subregion of Western and Central Europe and in South- Spain Eastern Europe. Despite reports of falling seizures, con- Pakistan sumer access to marijuana herb is likely increasing in North Morocco America, Oceania, Western and Central Europe and Afghanistan South-Eastern Europe. When retail prices are adjusted by Source: UNODC annual report questionnaire. taking into account purchasing power in order to compare prices worldwide, cannabis herb is found to be relatively Cannabis herb seizures worldwide and Fig. 43. Seizures of cannabis herb worldwide inexpensive in North America, cheapest in Africa and in selected countries, 2003-2012 and in selected countries, 2003-2012 7,000 Fig. 41. Production of cannabis resin in Afghanistan and seizures in neigh- 6,000 bouring countries, 2009-2012 5,000 4,000 450 400 4,000 3,500 Tons 350 3,000 3,000 300 2,500 2,000 250 2,000 200 1,000 1,500 1,300 1,400 150 0 1,000 on s) (t Afghanistan

100 (tons) seized Quantity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 oduction in Afghanistan (tons) 500 50 Estimated range of resin powder powder Estimated range of resin pr 0 0 Oceania Potential resin powder production in production powderresin Potential 2009 2010 2011 2012 Europe Asia Tons ofof cannabiscannabis seizedseized (Afghanistan,(Afghanistan,… Pakistan, Islamic Republic of Iran) Central and South America and Caribbean Africa Estimated range of resin powder production in Afghanistan (tons) North America Point estimate (tons) United States of America Mexico Source: Afghanistan cannabis surveys (published by UNODC) and UNODC annual report questionnaires. Source: UNODC annual report questionnaire. to beincreasing inthe region. nearly halfofthecountriesinAsiaconsidercannabisuse miological datafrom Asiaare from notavailable, experts 2011), butitisnotknown towhatextentthedecrease was 155 154 153 In theUnited States, between 2006 and2010,there was pitalizations related tocannabisusehave beenincreasing. In majorconsumermarkets, treatment enrolment andhos substance of abuse. tries ranking cannabis as the primary ues toexpand, with almosttwo thirds of reporting coun- Worldwide, thecannabismarket (herb andresin) contin- markets Lower perceived riskand increased harm inconsumer Cannabis: marketanalysis again between 2011 and 2012. declined in Canada between 2008 and 2011, increasing followed anupward trend intheUnited States the largestcannabisherbmarket, prevalence rateshave global average. Over thepastfive years inNorth America, regions with prevalence rates considerably higher than the a lesserextent, Western andCentralEurope remain the West and Central Africa, North America, Oceania and, to 2.7 and4.9percentofthepopulationaged15-64years. estimated tohave usedcannabis,corresponding tobetween In 2012,between 125millionand227peoplewere Extent ofuse tivation siteseradicatedare given inthetablebelow. tries reporting highnumbersofcannabisplantsandcul- in theStates ofColoradoand Washington. The othercoun to increasing licitcultivation cannabislaws duetothenew due todeclininglawenforcement activityinthatarea or Source: UNODCannualreport data. questionnaire andgovernment Table 6. Philippines Costa Rica Italy Tajikistan Ukraine Eradication(outdoors) Country (inorder ofarea eradicated) United States Brazil Chile Indonesia New Zealand Republic ofMoldova

UNODC, annualreport questionnaire for2012. S Health Canada,2012CanadianAlcoholandDrug Use Monitoring Abuse andMental Health A Services United States, ofHealth Department andHuman Substance Services, Future Surveys”. urvey (Ottawa, 2013). urvey

Countries reporting eradicationofcannabisplantsandsites,2012 154 dministration ,“Monitoring the Although recent epide- ,2,3 188 1,224,738 ,1,1 1,318 4,114,911 2,180,121 2,200,000 ,3,8 6,470 3,631,582 6,2 129 965,320 616,133 1,0 291 216,902 341,395 119,059 152,961 lnsSites Plants 153 but 155 - -

159 158 157 156 dependence. to theincreased usedisorders riskofdrug and potency anddependence,thattrend maybecontributing in 2011.Because oftherelationship between increased States increased from 8.7percentin 2007 to11.9percent seized oreradicatedcannabisherbcrops intheUnited of Mississippi, levels oftetrahydrocannabinolin (THC) ing tothePotency Monitoring Project oftheUniversity related treatment admissions. visits department a 59 per cent increase in cannabis-related emergency tion surveyoftheUnitedStates. Source: SubstanceAbuseandMentalHealthServices Administra- Fig. 44.

5 Ibid. Threat 2013,p. Summary Assessment 12. United States, Drug Enforcement A National Drug Threat. Summary Assessment Data from Treatment Episode D 2013), p. 12. tration, United States, ofJustice, Department Drug Enforcement Adminis- Prevalence (percentage) 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5

National Drug Threat S Assessment and older, UnitedStates,2008-2012 of cannabisherbamongpeople12years Lifetime, past-year, andpast-monthuse 159 0820 0021 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 10.3 Australia Chile New Zealand United States Italy Switzerland Latvia Slovakia 6.1 41

156 Past-month (12+) Past-month (12+) Past-year (12+) Lifetime anda14percentincrease incannabis- 41.5 11.3 6.6 157 ata setasreported inthe2013 1941.9 41.9 1511.5 11.5 , 6.9 158 dministration, National Drug Eradication (indoors) Additionally, accord 0,7 2,596 302,377 ummary 2013(Novemberummary 17,668 856 1,377 18,526 122 783 21,202 83,450 lnsSites Plants ,0 458 7,706 3,796 2,927 7 F. Cannabis:overview 322 42.8 12.1 7.3

4 - 41 WORLD DRUG REPORT 2014 42 1. RECENT STATISTICS AND TREND ANALYSIS OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET

Fig. 45. Trends in lifetime use among school Fig. 47. Change in inflation-adjusted retail children, United States, 2008-2013 price, from the biennium 2009-2010 to the biennium 2011-2012, weighted 40 36.4 36.4 36.4 34.8 average (percentage) 35 32.4 32.8 29.8 South-Eastern 28.8 28 Europe 30 26.7 27.5 Central Asia and 23.9 Transcaucasia 25 South America, Central America, and the Caribbean 20 Western & Central Europe 13.7 12.5 12.7 Oceania 15 10.9 11.8 11.4 Eastern Europe 10

Prevalence (percentage) East and South-East Asia 5 Africa 0 North America 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Rest of Asia 8th Grade 10th Grade 12th Grade -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

Source: Monitoring the Future Survey, United States. Source: UNODC annual report questionnaire.

Fig. 46. Average price per gram of cannabis Increase in supply of cannabis herb in South-Eastern herb self-reported by users, by level Europe and Central Asia of quality, United States, 2010-2013 With respect to supply measures, although global seizures 16 have declined 24 per cent (from 7,049 tons in 2010 to 5,351 tons in 2012), the market for cannabis herb has 14 become more diversified, with the largest percentage 12 increases in seized herb noted in markets where cannabis 10 resin had previously been predominant throughout West- 8 ern, Central and South-Eastern Europe. Concomitant with the seizure increases, prices of cannabis herb have increased dollars) 6 significantly in South-Eastern Europe and Central Asia. 4 Since 2009, cannabis prices in Turkey have increased the 2 most among all countries reporting worldwide. Increases Price per gram (UnitedStates 0 in herb price were also noted in the region, in Azerbaijan, 2010 2011 2012 2013 Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Greece and Uzbekistan. Average price Overall, cannabis resin seizures have increased for the third Low quality straight year, with decreases in the Americas and Europe Source: PriceOfWeed.com. and increases in Africa and Asia. Further, the price of resin has also increased in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Pakistan, a regional phenomenon potentially related to higher levels The phenomenon of increased harm is not unique to one of regional interdictions, which is likely resulting in supply specific region. Nearly two thirds of those enrolled in drug shortfalls at the consumer level. treatment in Africa listed cannabis as their primary drug Seizures of cannabis herb now equivalent to cannabis of use, and in Brazil, increasing dependence among can- resin in the European markets nabis users has been reported.160 In a recent national survey in Pakistan, three in four past-year cannabis users There continues to be evidence that cannabis resin is (mostly users of cannabis resin), were found to be depend- decreasing in popularity in Europe. Whereas cannabis resin ent.161 However, among key informants, the herbal form had previously dominated the market, now there are nearly of cannabis (consumed in a traditional drink called equivalent levels of resin and herb seizures, implying a “bhang”) was ranked as the tenth most harmful drug, continuing shift away from imported resin coming mainly whereas resin was ranked as the second most harmful.162 from Morocco to more locally or regionally produced can- nabis herb. Unfortunately, drug use surveys typically do not distinguish between cannabis resin and herb; therefore this cannot be corroborated by drug use data. 160 Data from the Brazilian National Alcohol and Drugs Survey (BNADS Price declines in North America together with higher II), Cannabis use in Brazil, 2012. potency levels 161 UNODC and Pakistan, Drug use in Pakistan, 2013. 162 Ibid. Regarding the cannabis herb market in countries with regu- 164 169 168 167 166 165 163 concern that“a numberofStates thatare tothe parties The International Narcotics Control Board hasexpressed legal, production, distributionandconsumptionofmarijuana rado guay Recent policy changes to cannabis regulation in Uru Changing cannabispolicyintheAmericas variable, indicatingmore retail market integration. price ofcannabisherbintheUnited States hasbecomeless ties ofcannabisherbhave converged, implyingthatthe has risen40percent.Overall, thepricesofvarious quali- per cent,andthepriceofmedium-qualitycannabisherb but thepriceofhigh-qualitycannabisherbhasfallen20 the price,adjustedforquality, hasfallenonly6percent, chases reported tothePriceOfWeed website, since2010, inflation. According toself-reported informationonpur- cannabis herbdeclined12percent Between 2009and2012intheUnited States, thepriceof changes inratesofinterdiction andinpricesare expected. changessuchastheUnitedlatory States andUruguay, Source: UNODCannualreport questionnaire Fig. 48.

For non-medicalandnon-scientificuses. pr The United States federalControlled Substances Act continuesto (U Data from Amendment64:Use andRegulation ofMarijuana United States, State of Washington, Initiativ Uruguay, LawNo. 19.172. In U mation fortheU Price dataretrieved onself-reported price,qualityandlocationinfor- UNODC, annualreport questionnaire. sect. 16).Available atwww.fcgov.com/mmj/pdf/amendment64.pdf. pdf. Available athttp://lcb.wa.gov/publications/Marijuana/I-502/i502. tion andsaleforrecreational use. use. legislation nowThe new permitscannabiscultivation, produc- “reasonable quantity” intendedexclusively (ofanydrug) for personal law legislationalready exempted from punishmentthepossessionofa website. 167 165 169 ohibit cannabisproduction, traffickingandpossession. nited States, Constitutionofthe State XVIII, ofColorado,art. Ratio of cannabis resin: cannabis herb intheUnited States andinthestatesof Washington undersomeconditions,suchaspurchasing age. 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8

Trends inseizures ofcannabisresin andherb,Europe, 2003-2012 0320 0520 0720 0921 012012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

nited States, submittedtothePriceOfWeed.com 168 ruguay, priortopassingofthenew now maketheauthorized 163 afteradjustmentfor e Measure No. 502. 166 andColo- 164 - sider the negative impact of such developments.” In the ments andtheinternationalcommunitytocarefully con- than medicalandscientificones” anditurged“all Govern intended toregulate theuseofcannabisforpurposesother 1961 Convention are consideringlegislative proposals 173 172 171 170 thatpromoteadvertisements andencourageconsumption. zation impliesmotivated selling,whichcanleadtodirected behaviours.Commerciali also significantlyaffectdrug-use market willchange,thecommercialization ofcannabismay tion duction, personalcultivation andretail commercializa a licitsupplychain,includinglarge-scalelicensingforpro “medical” cannabislawsby allowing theestablishment of from current casesofdepenalization, decriminalizationor legislationcoulddiffersubstantially The impactofthenew the contextsofeachjurisdiction. changes, butrathermeasurabledistinctchangesreflecting there isunlikelytobeoneuniformimpactofthesepolicy Because oftheseandothernotabledifferences ineachlaw, limit on the amount that can be purchased each month. of cumulative purchasescentral registry per buyer nor any chases ofupto1oz(28g)are allowed peroutlet,withno 40 g per month), in adatabasetomonitorcumulative purchases (maximum significantly. For example,inUruguay usersmustregister lawsvary details, designandimplementationofthenew session andconsumptionofcannabisare now legal, the Although in those three jurisdictions, the purchase, pos will leadtoanincrease inrelated publichealthcosts”. Board’s opinion “the likely increase in the abuse of cannabis

173 mote production, consumption andprofits. enter themarket anduseanymeansthat ar In thestatesofColoradoand Washington, for-profit businessescan United States, State 2. ofColorado,Amendment64,sect.5,part Uruguay, LawNo. 19.172. INCB/2013/1). Report oftheInternational Narcotics Control Board for2013(E/ of the market. While it is not yet clear how the 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Quantity seized (tons) 171 but in the State of Colorado, pur (Europe) resin tocannabisherbweight Ratio ofseizures of cannabis (Europe) Seizuresof cannabis resin (Europe) Seizuresof cannabis herb (Western& Central Europe) resin tocannabisherbweight Ratio ofseizures of cannabis e withinthelawtopro- F. Cannabis:overview 170 172 ------

43 WORLD DRUG REPORT 2014 44 1. RECENT STATISTICS AND TREND ANALYSIS OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET

For instance, in the case of tobacco companies, advertising a risk of heavy dependence, lung problems, memory was directed to attract new users, which resulted in effec- impairment, psychosocial development problems and tive marketing to youth.174 mental health problems, and poorer cognitive performance associated with early initiation and persistent use between Because laws of this kind have never before been enacted the early teenage years and adulthood.180, 181 For youth or implemented in a national or state jurisdiction, no pre- and young adults, more permissive cannabis regulations vious case studies are available to predict what changes correlate with decreases in the perceived risk of use,182 and should be expected. Thus, monitoring and evaluation will lowered risk perception has been found to predict increases provide critical data for policymakers. For this reason, it in use.183 is important that the impacts of this legislation are meas- ured against a number of factors, ranging from the impact Although it is an important metric to monitor, increases on health and criminal justice (effects on the individual as in prevalence of cannabis use may not provide a reliable well as institutions and society) to the balance of public revenues against costs and to other social impacts. Services Administration has shown initiation of marijuana use At this time, countries and states surrounding Uruguay, before the age of 15 is associated with higher risk of other drug use Colorado and Washington have not adopted similar regu- at 26 or older, and that those who tried marijuana before the age latory or legislative measures. In consideration of this, addi- of 15 were six times more likely to be dependent on an illicit drug at 26 or older (relative to those who initiated marijuana at 21 or tional outcomes that need to be monitored include drug older). (See Joseph C. Gfroerer, Li-Tzy Wu and Michael A. Penne, tourism, cross-border leakage and access and availability Initiation of Marijuana Use: Trends, Patterns, and Implications, Sub- to youth in neighbouring jurisdictions. stance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, Rockville, Maryland, 2002.) Health 180 M. H. Meier and others, “Persistent cannabis users show neuro- psychological decline from childhood to midlife, Proceedings of the While research has not conclusively established the impact National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. of more lenient laws on cannabis consumption, an increase 109, No. 40 (October 2012), pp. E2657-E2664. in prevalence of cannabis use from recreational use sales is 181 A. Caspi and others, “Moderation of the effect of adolescent-onset cannabis use on adult psychosis by a functional polymorphism in the expected, although it is also possible that the primary effect catechol-Omethyltransferase gene: longitudinal evidence of a gene X – particularly in the first decade or so – may differ from environment interaction”, Biological Psychiatry, vol. 57, No. 10 (15 longer-term impacts. Expert analyses predict that the legali- May 2005), pp. 1117–1127; Wayne Hall and Louisa Degenhardt, “Adverse health effects of non-medical cannabis use”, The Lancet, vol. zation of cannabis will most likely reduce production costs 374, No. 9698 (October 2009), pp. 1383–1391; Wayne Hall, “The 175 substantially, which would in turn be expected to put adverse health effects of cannabis use: What are they, and what are downward pressure on prices over time, although whether their implications for policy?”, International Journal of Drug Policy, vol. 20, No. 6 (2009), pp. 458–466; A. D. Schweinsburg, S. A. lower prices materialize in the first few years or only in the Brown and S. F. Tapert, “The influence of marijuana use on neuro- longer term is unknown. Since cannabis consumption cognitive functioning in adolescents”, Current Drug Abuse Review, responds to prices, the lower price will probably lead to vol. 1, No. 1 (2008), pp. 99–111; D. M. Fergusson and J. M. Boden, 176 “Cannabis use and later life outcomes”, Addiction, vol. 103, No. higher consumption. It is estimated that for each 10 6 (2008), pp. 969–976 and discussion pp. 977–968; E. Gouzou- per cent drop in price, there will be an approximately 3 lis-Mayfrank, “Dual diagnosis psychosis and substance use disorders: per cent increase in the total number of users177 and a 3-5 theoretical foundations and treatment” [article in German], Zeitschrift 178 für Kinder- und Jugendpsychiatrie und Psychotherapie, vol. 36, No. 4 per cent increase in youth initiation. (2008), pp. 245–253; J. Macleod and others,“Psychological and social sequelae of cannabis and other illicit drug use by young people: a Initiation and use among youth and young adults is of systematic review of longitudinal, general population studies”, The particular concern due to the established increased risk of Lancet, vol. 363, No. 9421 (2004), pp. 1579–1588; John Curtis, harm, such as other drug use and dependent drug use,179 “Study suggests marijuana induces temporary schizophrenia-like effects”, Yale Medicine, vol. 39, No. 1 (Fall/Winter 2004); “Neuro- toxicology: neurocognitive effects of chronic marijuana use charac- 174 United States, Center for Public Health and Tobacco Policy, “Cause terized”, Managed Care Weekly Digest (16 May 2005); J. McGrath and effect: tobacco marketing increases youth tobacco use - findings and others, “Association between cannabis use and psychosis-related of the 2012 Surgeon General’s report (Boston, 2012). Available at outcomes using sibling pair analysis in a cohort of young adults”, www.tobaccopolicycenter.org/documents/SGR%20NY%205-25-12. Archives of General Psychiatry, vol. 67, No. 5 (2010), pp. 440-447; L. pdf. Goldschmidt and others, “Prenatal marijuana exposure and intelli- 175 Researchers estimate that the pre-tax retail price will decline by more gence test performance at age 6”, Journal of the American Academy of than 80 per cent, but the eventual consumer price will depend on Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, vol. 47, No. 3 (March 2008), pp. 254- the tax-structure. See Beau Kilmer and others, Altered State? Assessing 263; J. M. Tertrault and others, “Effects of marijuana smoking on How Marijuana Legalization in California could Influence Marijuana pulmonary function respiratory complications: a systematic review”, Consumption and Public Budgets (Santa Monica, California, RAND Archives of Internal Medicine, vol. 167, No. 3 (2007), pp. 221-228; Corporation, Drug Policy Research Center, 2010). BMJ-British Medical Journal, “Cannabis use doubles chances of vehi- cle crash, review finds”, in Science Daily (10 February 2012). 176 J. P. Caulkins and others, “Design considerations for legalizing can- nabis: lessons inspired by analysis of California’s Proposition 19”, 182 S. Khatapoush and D. Hallfors, “Sending the wrong message: did Addiction, vol. 107, No. 5 (2011), pp. 865-871. medical marijuana legalization in California change attitudes about and use of marijuana”, Journal of Drug Issues, vol. 34, No 4 (Octo- 177 Beau Kilmer and others, Altered State? ber 2004), pp. 751-770. 178 Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, “Examining the impact of marijuana legaliza- 183 See L. D. Johnston and others, Monitoring the Future National tion on marijuana consumption: insights from the economics litera- Survey Results on Drug Use 1975-2012: Key Findings on Adolescent ture” (RAND Corporation, Working Papers, July 2010). Drug Use (Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 179 Research by the United States Substance Abuse and Mental Health 2012). the United States found that while cannabis-related hos- 186 possessionforpersonaluseinthat decriminalized drug lawreformsof othersubstances.Afterdrug inPortugal effect whereby greater useofcannabisleadstogreater use suchasheroin) or,drugs conversely, acomplementary replaces othersubstances(suchasalcoholormore harmful determine if there is a substitution effect whereby cannabis to to try Looking at the health impact, it is also important also becarefully monitored. as well astheage ofinitiationandsustaineduse—should areas ofharmfuluse—suchasheavy and harmhasnotbeenconclusively established).Critical than inpastyears (althoughaclearlinkbetween potency lawsandmayleadtogreaterthe new healthconsequences translate intomore potentcannabisbeingavailable under cannabis inEurope andNorth America, that there is a general, demonstrated increased potency of use cannabisonlyoccasionally. One aspecttoconsideris estimate ofthegreatest impactonhealth,sincemanyusers 189 188 187 185 184 such asincarceration. In countrieswithdepenalization can range from a warning to more severe consequences, possessionforpersonaluse,andpenalties system fordrug to whichanindividualwillencounterthecriminaljustice control conventionsnational drug determinestheextent The different wayscountries have implementedtheinter- inthelegislation. to explicitlimitationssetforth bution, willcontinuetorequire routine monitoringowing nabis-related activities, suchascultivation, saleanddistri laws,whereasthe contextofnew control ofothercan- sonal consumption are likely to decrease significantly in Criminal justiceprocedures related topossessionforper- Criminal justice went down.drugs cannabis intheperiod1975-1978,admissionsforother pital admissionswent upafterthedecriminalizationof cocaine remained stableat4-6percent. for decreased from 33per centto15percent,and of referrals in2001to65percent2005,butreferrals 2001, referrals

titatively (amountofpenalty)orqualitatively (type ofpenalty), Depenalization refers toany policy thatreduces penalties,quan- episodes:1975-1978”, pital emergencyroom drug Model, effectofmarijuanadecriminalisationonhos- Karyn “The useinP of drug Caitlin Hughes andAlexStevens, effectsofdecriminalization “The addiction of drug Panel ofthree peopleknown asthe“commission forthedissuasion Heavy useisdefinedasdailyornearuse. on potency”, International Jour effectsofmedicalmarijuanalaws E. L.Sevigny andothers,“The non-scientific purposes, butthere are to variations from country associated withpossessionoruseofcannabis fornon-medicalor pp. 737-747. American Statistical, vol. 88,No. Association 423(September 1993), kent.ac.uk. Drug Policy Programme, December 2007).Available athttp://kar. cia). January 2014),pp. 308-319. 186 ortugal”, Briefing Paper 14(Beckley Foundation forcannabisincreased from 47percent ” (ComissõesparaaDissuasão da Toxicodependên - 188

nal of Drug Policynal ofDrug , vol. 25,No. 2(18 185 ordependentuse, 187 184 One studyin Journal ofthe whichmay

189 -

194 193 192 191 190 viduals whohadbeengiven onlyinfringementnotices; tions for cannabis offences with a second group of indi- area, agroup ofindividualsthatreceived criminalconvic- example, a research study in Australia compared, in one tutional criminal justice system and the individual. For regarding cannabis possession affect both the broader insti ingly permissive lawsoncannabisisnotaneasytask.Laws To estimatetheoverall criminaljusticeimpactofincreas- were ultimatelyprosecuted, convictedandincarcerated. no datathatcanshow how manyofthoseapprehended region oftheworld. majority ofcasesinevery There are encounters with authorities, cannabis is involved in the lawoffences)). drug-related crime(drug offences has increased by one third (see the section on pected orarrested useandpossession )forpersonaldrug people whohave beenincontactwiththeauthorities(sus Over thepastdecade,across 45countries,thenumberof ington meansthatnosuchmechanismisprovided for. and the states of Colorado and Wash or rehabilitation. legalstatusofthepossession The new whereby theindividualwouldstillfacesomeconsequences eliminated, butthere remains acriminaljustice encounter of possessionforpersonaluse,penaltiesare reduced or analysis ofthepotentialimpactcannabislegalizationin 20-30 per cent cuts in profits. tives that passed inColorado and Washington —with losses of nearly $3 billion fromestimate the cartel initia- Although littleresearch isavailable onthetopic,experts and Washington smallcannabismarket). constituteavery their populationsizes, Uruguay andthestatesofColorado only modestlyaffectedaftercannabislegalization.(Given cocaine, heroin andmethamphetamine)would likelybe markets (e.g., ating inotherillicitactivitiesanddrug much ofcannabiscultivation islocal, isunknown. cartels criminal networks Because ofdrug so change in several cases, the expected impact on the broader Although ithasbeenmentionedasarationaleforpolicy offence. lems andaccommodationdifficultiesattributedtotheir employment consequences,recidivism, relationship prob those convictedwere farmore likelytoexperienceadverse

UNODC, Available atwww.imco.org.mx. técnico”, Alejandro Hope andEduardo Clark, “Si losv (Oxford University Press, 2010). Robin Room andothers,Cannabis Policy Mo vol. 10,No. 4 (1999), pp. 299-303. Australia andtheirevaluation”, Inter S. Lentonandothers,“Lawsapplyingtominorcannabisoffencesin arrested for cannabis-related offencesin2011. drug number ofarrests isseenintheEuropean Union, withnearly800,000 year forcannabispossession.Asimilarorder ofmagnitudeinthe In theUnited States, approximately 750,000 peopleare arr penalties ortonopenalties. possession oruse,from criminalpenaltiestoadministrative orcivil inalization impliesachangeinthenature oftheconsequences intherespective lawsand howcountry theyare enforced. Decrim- 191 , 192 Instituto Mexicano para laCompetitividad(October 2012). World Report 2011 Drug

. 194 national Journal Policy ofDrug , However, in another 193 ecinos legalizan:reporte drug cartels oper- cartels drug ving Beyond Stalemate 190 F. Cannabis:overview Amongthese ested each - - - -

45 WORLD DRUG REPORT 2014 46 1. RECENT STATISTICS AND TREND ANALYSIS OF THE ILLICIT DRUG MARKET

the state of California on Mexican drug trafficking organi- G. AMPHETAMINE-TYPE zations, researchers concluded that legal changes in one state (in this case, California) would not be enough to STIMULANTS: OVERVIEW greatly diminish the market for Mexican cannabis, but if Production, trafficking and prices dropped significantly nationwide as a result of the consumption spillover to other states, cartel revenue could be affected substantially in the long term. The authors could not une- While it is difficult to quantify the global production of quivocally predict a decline in drug-related violence in ATS, the number of ATS-manufacturing laboratories that Mexico as a result of cannabis legalization, as there was no were dismantled increased from 12,571 (12,567 ATS labs basis for comparison.195 in addition to four labs producing ATS in conjunction Economic costs and benefits with non-ATS substances) in 2011 to 14,322 in 2012 — nearly all of these (96 per cent) were manufacturing meth- Tax revenues from retail cannabis sales may provide sig- amphetamine. In North America, nificant revenue, although there is uncertainty concerning manufacturing has expanded again. In 2012, a large how much can be raised. In the ballot initiative of Colo- increase in methamphetamine laboratories seized was rado, it was stipulated that tax revenues from the sale of reported by the United States (12,857 in 2012 from cannabis were to be used to provide $40 million for school 11,116) and Mexico (259 from 159). A significant increase construction. Based on assumptions about the size of the in the number of amphetamine laboratories dismantled in market, it was estimated that the ballot measure would 2012 was reported by the United States (from 57 to 84) bring in as much as $130.1 million in revenue over the and the Russian Federation (from 27 to 38). period 2014-2015.196 Legalization may also increase income and social security tax revenues by shifting labour For the second year, ATS seizures reached an all-time high from criminal to legal and taxed activities. of 144 tons, up 15 per cent from 2011, due in large part to increases in methamphetamine seizures. Over the past However, in Uruguay and the states of Washington and five years, methamphetamine seizures have almost quad- Colorado, significant costs will also be incurred through rupled, from 24 tons in 2008 to 114 tons in 2012. Of the the establishment of programmes to deter cannabis abuse total of 144 tons of ATS seized globally in 2012, approxi- and regulate the new industry. Based on assumptions mately half were seized in North America alone and regarding the size of the consumer market, it is unclear approximately a quarter in East and South-East Asia. Large how legalization will affect public budgets in the short or quantities of amphetamine seizures continue to be reported long term, but expected revenue will need to be cautiously in the Middle East, in particular by Jordan, Saudi Arabia balanced against the costs of prevention and health care. and the Syrian Arab Republic. In addition to the impact on health, criminal justice and the economy, a series of other effects such as consequences Seizures of “ecstasy” have resurged after the drop in 2011. related to security, health care, family problems, low per- Major quantities of “ecstasy” were seized in East and South- formance, absenteeism, car and workplace accidents and East Asia, followed by Europe (South-Eastern Europe and insurance could create significant costs for the state. It is Western and Central Europe). All three regions account also important to note that legalization does not eliminate for nearly three quarters of global “ecstasy” seizures. trafficking in that drug. Although decriminalized, its use and personal possession will be restricted by age. Therefore, Amphetamine-type-stimulants: the gaps that traffickers can exploit, although reduced, will market analysis remain. Diversification and expansion of the global The collection of reliable data both before and after these methamphetamine trade policy changes will support the evaluation of the health, criminal justice and economic consequences of the new In 2012, methamphetamine accounted for the majority of regulatory frameworks. Further, careful study of the effects ATS seizures (80 per cent), approximately 114 tons of the on local and transnational organized crime networks will total 144 tons of ATS seized worldwide. Nearly two thirds allow evidence-based decisions to inform policy in this area (64 per cent) of global methamphetamine seizures occurred at the national and regional levels. The impact of this in North America, and one third in East and South-East legislation can be evaluated only if it is appropriately Asia. Although Mexico, the United States, China, Thailand measured through reliable data-gathering and regular and Iran (Islamic Republic of), in that order, continue to monitoring efforts. report the highest amounts of methamphetamine seized worldwide, there is evidence that methamphetamine traf- ficking is becoming more global in nature, with noteable 195 Beau Kilmer and others, Reducing Drug Trafficking Revenues and increases from 2011 to 2012 observed in West and Central Violence in Mexico, Would Legalizing Marijuana in California Help? (Rand Corporation, 2010), e-book. Africa (from 45 kg to 598 kg) and Oceania (from 457 kg 196 See “The fiscal impact of Amendment 64 on state revenues” (Colo- to 2,283 kg). Growing methamphetamine markets have rado, Colorado State University, 24 April 2013). also been observed in Central Asia and Transcaucasia, as