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JYP Entertainment Bloomberg: 035900 KS, Reuters: 035900.KS Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

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JYP Entertainment Bloomberg: 035900 KS, Reuters: 035900.KS Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report Regional Company Focus JYP Entertainment Bloomberg: 035900 KS, Reuters: 035900.KS Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 21 May 018 BUY, KRW21,850 KOSDAQ: 869.5 Textbook example of entertainment (C losing price as of 18/5/18) companies Pr ice Target 12-mth: KRW30,000 R eason for Report: Initiating coverage Strongest-ever normalised OPM posted in 1Q18 Po tential catalyst: Debuts of new idol groups in Korea and China Margins improving on the back of focus on core Wh ere we differ: We are slightly conservative in light of one -off business, while peers posting flagging margins stock compensation costs EPS growth for 2019F to significantly exceed peers Analyst Initiating coverage with BUY, KRW30,000 TP Regional Research Team [email protected] Korean entertainment company with strongest growth mo mentum. We initiate our coverage on JYP, Korea’s top 3 entertainment Price Relative company, with a BUY call and KRW30,000 TP, applying a target PE 30,000 310 of 33x to 2019F EPS (when JYP will start to reflect revenues from 25,000 260 new artists). Accounting for the expansion in its artists’ overseas 20,000 210 activities, our target PE is the average PE of SM Entertainment (SM) 15,000 160 and YG Entertainment (YG) in 2013-2015, when their global 10,000 revenue started to fully fledge. Despite the recent surge, we believe 5,000 110 0 60 there is an ample upside to JYP’s stock price. May-14 Dec-14 Jul-15 Feb-16 Sep-16 Apr-17 Nov-17 Stock price(LHS,KRW) Rel. to KOSDAQ(RHS,pts) Higher profitability each quarter. Korean Entertainment companies’ diversification efforts have so far caused poorer margins, due to the Forecasts and Valuation F Y Dec (KRW bn) lack of synergies with their mainstay business. Moreover, doubts 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F Revenue 102.2 119.6 133.6 147.4 over entertainment giants’ competitiveness in their mainstay EBITDA 22.3 29.5 40.1 46.1 business have grown, with their new idol groups generating Operating profit 19.5 26.1 36.4 42.0 disappointing revenues. In contrast, JYP Entertainment is delivering Pre-tax Profit 21.1 28.8 42.0 50.2 Net Profit 16.4 22.3 32.6 39.0 better profitability every quarter, focusing on its core business. It is Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 16.4 22.3 32.6 39.0 also showing the strongest performance among listed peers in Net Pft Attributable to terms of new idol groups’ activities. For 1Q18, JYP recorded Controlling Interest 16.2 21.7 31.7 37.9 revenue of KRW23bn (+5% y-o-y) and OP of KRW1.36bn (-64% y- EPS (KRW) 471 626 916 1,095 o-y). Excluding the one-off cost from employee stock options, 1Q18 EPS Pre Ex. (KRW) 477 644 942 1,127 EPS Gth (%) 91.4 32.8 46.4 19.6 OP would be KRW5.56bn (+46% y -o-y), way above consensus EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 90.4 35.0 46.4 19.6 estimate. While revenue growth was marginal with recognition of Diluted EPS (KRW) 471 626 916 1,095 earnings from Japan (JYP focused on the Japanese market in 1Q18) Net DPS (KRW) 0 0 0 0 deferred, its normalised OPM came in at 24%, a record high, BV Per Share (KRW) 1,611 2,306 3,286 4,440 thanks to structural margin improvements. PE (X) 29.2 34.0 23.2 19.4 PE Pre Ex. (X) 28.8 33.0 22.6 18.9 Earnings growth to stand out among peers. We expect JYP to see P/Cash Flow (X) 18.8 30.7 24.2 21.4 stronger-than-peers margin improvements going forward, on the EV/EBITDA (X) 19.6 23.5 17.1 14.5 Net Div Yield (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a back of i) growth of Japan and global revenue (high-margin P/Book Value (X) 8.5 9.2 6.5 4.8 markets), ii) the drop in the COGS-to-revenue ratio supported by Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH increasing revenue from its new idol groups, and iii) rationalisation ROE (%) 21.6 23.3 26.6 24.8 of SG&A expenses by focusing on its core business. For 2018, we Earnings Rev (%): 0.0 0.0 0.0 C o nsensus EPS (KRW): 670 957 1,202 estimate revenue of KRW119.6bn (+17% y -o-y) and OP of O ther Broker Recs: B : 2 S : 0 H : 0 KRW26.1bn (+34% y-o-y). Excluding stock option cost, OP would I CB Industry: Recreation Facilities & Svcs be KRW31bn. Its EPS is projected to grow 46% in 2019, much I CB Sector: Consumer Discretionary higher compared to the 9% forecast for SM and 17% for YG. Pr incipal Business: JYP Entertainment plans, produces, promotes, and markets Korean singers both in Korean and overseas markets. At A Glance The company's also engages in licensing, merchandising, and artist Issued Capital (m shrs) 34.62 management business. Mkt. Cap (KRWbn/US$m) 757/703 Source of all data on this page: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Company, Major Shareholders DBS Bank Park Jin-young and 4 others (%) 16.7 Free Float (%) 75.2 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 746 ed: CK / sa: LEY, CS / AH Company Focus JYP Entertainment Earnings forecasts Unit: KRW bn, % 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F Revenue 74 102 120 134 147 163 173 OP 14 19 26 36 42 48 53 EBITDA 16 22 29 40 46 53 58 NP 9 16 22 33 39 47 52 Total assets 87 124 144 177 216 263 315 Total equity 67 86 107 139 177 223 273 Net debt (31) (40) (42) (52) (66) (94) (126) Revenue growth 45.7 38.8 17.0 11.7 10.3 10.3 6.7 OP margin 18.8 19.0 21.8 27.2 28.5 29.8 30.6 Net margin 11.6 16.0 18.6 24.4 26.5 28.9 29.9 EPS growth 162.7 91.4 32.8 46.4 19.6 20.3 10.5 ROE 13.7 21.6 23.3 26.6 24.8 23.6 21.0 Note: Based on consoli da te d K-IFRS Source: DBS Bank Page 2 Company Focus JYP Entertainment I. Need to focus on specialisation, rather than diversification I-1. Business diversification does not necessarily increase SM and YG Entertainment have vertically expanded their enterprise value business portfolios since 2015. YG has expanded into cosmetics, sport management and restaurant businesses, Here, we compare JYP’s profitability with that of while SM has entered broadcasting contents competitors to explain its enterprise value. production/investments, cable broadcasting (programme provider), ad agency, travel agency, etc. Vertical business In terms of revenue, JYP underperforms its competitors with expansion requires initial investments and related personnel similar market cap. This raises doubts over the company’s recruitment, leading to a sharp increase in SG&A expenses. potential value among some investors. Entertainment However, such expansion has failed to create synergy with companies have focused on top-line growth, setting a goal the mainstay business, and some businesses are even of annual revenue of KRW1tr or 2tr. The two major blamed for overall margin deterioration. SM saw its strategies for revenue growth are: i) vertical expansion of consolidated OPM decline from 12% in 2014 to 3% in business portfolio; and ii) horizontal revenue expansion 2017. YG’s OPM also decreased from 14% to 7% over the through the globalisation of K-pop idol music. Our analysis same period. of entertainment companies’ earnings shows that horizontal revenue expansion contributes to enterprise value growth. Meanwhile, JYP has focused on its mainstay business, music In contrast, vertical revenue expansion through business and concerts. It avoids excessive investments with its own diversification contributes little to enterprise value growth. equity for contents production. As a result, gross profit An artist’s global revenue growth contributes to margin growth significantly outpaces SG&A growth. The company improvements with little fixed costs. However, business recorded a KRW12bn increase in consolidated gross profit in diversification (with a new business added to the articles of 2017. In comparison, SG&A growth (excluding one-off stock compensation costs) was only KRW2.9bn. As such, association) does not necessarily lead to margin normalised OPM (excluding stock compensation costs) rose improvements, due to required capex and new investments. to 22% in 2017 from 18.8% in 2016. We expect SG&A As such, we think revenue comparison at current levels growth to be limited at KRW1bn in 2018 when excluding (secured through business diversification) is meaningless in one-off headquarters relocation and stock compensation terms of enterprise value evaluation. We recommend costs. With gross profit growth estimated at KRW9bn, focusing on future profitability and the potential value of normalised OPM should increase to 26% for 2018. artists under management. Page 3 Company Focus JYP Entertainment SM Entertainment: Annual revenue and OPM SM Entertainment: Annual SG&A expenses (KRW bn) Revenue OPM (%) (KRW bn) SG&A expense YoY 600 15 120 40% x 10 x 500 12 100 30% 400 80 20% 9 300 60 10% 6 200 40 0% 100 3 20 -10% 0 0 0 -20% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Source: SM Entertai n me nt, DBS Bank Source: SM Entertai n me nt, DBS Bank YG Entertainment: Annual revenue and OPM YG Entertainment: Annual SG&A expenses (KRW bn) Revenue OPM (%) (KRW bn) SG&A expense YoY 400 15 80 50% x 10x 320 12 40% 60 240 9 30% 40 160 6 20% 20 80 3 10% 0 0 0 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Source: YG Entertai nm e nt, DBS Bank Source: YG Entertai nm e nt, DBS Bank J YP Entertainment: Annual revenue and OPM J YP Entertainment: Annual SG&A expenses (KRW bn) Revenue OPM (%) (KRW bn) SG&A expense YoY 120 25 25 130% x 10x 100 20 20 90% 80 15 15 50% 60 10 10 10% 40 5 -30% 20 5 0 0 0 -70% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F Source: JYP Entertai nme n t, DBS Bank Source: JYP Entertai nme n t, DBS Bank Page 4 Company Focus JYP Entertainment SM C&C: A nnual earnings YG Plus: Annual earnings (KRW bn) Revenue OP (KRW bn) Revenue OP 100 70 80 50 60 40 30 20 10 0 -20 -10 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: SM Entertai n me nt, DBS Bank Source: YG Entertai nm e nt, DBS Bank J YP Entertainment: Business area Source: JYP Entertai nme n t, DBS Bank Page 5 Company Focus JYP Entertainment I-2.
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