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Security Council Report SECURITY COUNCIL REPORT Monthly SEPTEMBER 2006 31 August 2006 This report is available online and can beFORECAST viewed together with Update Reports on developments during the month at www.securitycouncilreport.org OVERVIEW FOR SEPTEMBER CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE Greece will have the Presidency of the hugeamountofhighlevellobbyingby Status Update since our August CouncilinamonthwhentheCouncilwill GuatemalaandVenezuela(competingfor Forecast��������������������������������������������3 havetomanagenotonlyalargenumberof theLatinAmericanseat)andIndonesia, Lebanon�������������������������������������������������3 mandaterenewals(ten),butalsohighpro- NepalandRepublicofKorea(competing file and politically charged issues such for the Asian seat). (See our Special Iran���������������������������������������������������������6 as the selection of the next Secretary- Research Reportof14August2006�) Darfur/Sudan����������������������������������������7 General,theSecretary-General’sproposals n TheSecurityCouncilwillmoveintothe Democratic Republic of Congo���������9 on Lebanon, the Iranian nuclear pro- nextphaseofitsselection process for Côte d’Ivoire�������������������������������������� 11 gramme and Darfur. In addition Greece the next Secretary-General. With four proposestotakeup,inanopenCouncil candidates still in the race, and wide Somalia����������������������������������������������� 13 debateon20SeptemberchairedbyitsFor- expectationsthatadditionalcandidates Burundi����������������������������������������������� 15 eign Minister, the subject of cooperation willyetemerge,thiswillalsobeamajor Kosovo������������������������������������������������ 17 betweentheUNandregionalorganisations� focusofattentionandlobbying. (Anum- berofCouncilmembersaredisappointed Liberia������������������������������������������������� 18 Meanwhile,deteriorationofthreesituations atthefirstroundofstrawballotinginJuly inAfricameansthattheCouncilwillneedto Iraq������������������������������������������������������ 19 and feel that it would have been more devotetimeto: Ethiopia/Eritrea��������������������������������� 20 effectiveinachievingthegoalofencour- n Burundi(wheretensionisgrowingasa aging withdrawal of the less favoured Sierra Leone�������������������������������������� 21 resultofconcernsthattherecentcoup candidatesiftheprocesshadbeenmore Review of Security Council allegations,humanrightsviolationsand open�)Itnowseemsthatwithdrawalswill arrestsindicateawiderbreakdownofthe Mandates���������������������������������������� 22 be unlikely until there is a clear trend democraticprocess); establishedfromanumberofstrawpolls Notable Dates for September�������� 24 n DRC(wherepostelectionviolenceanda that a candidate cannot succeed. The Important Dates over the Horizon�� 24 furtherroundofpresidentialcampaign- other thing that might precipitate a ing for the run-off election threaten to >>page 2 destabilisethepeaceprocess);and n Côte d’Ivoire(wherefailuretomeetthe Councilroadmapbenchmarksmakesa Aide-Memoire furtherpostponementofelectionsinevi- ImportantmatterspendingfortheCouncil AdviseronthePreventionofGenocidehas table. Italsoopensthepossibility—and are: notbeenpublished� theSpecialAdviseronGenocide,Juan n InOctober 2004theCouncilrequesteda n A draft resolution on Small Arms circu- Méndez,hasissuedclearwarnings—of reportonthepracticalstepstheUNcould latedbyArgentinain March 2006hasnot resorttolargescaleviolence)� taketostrengthenitsactioninsupportfor been adopted. Argentina continues with High level visitors attending the General transitional justice and the rule of law in bilateralconsultations� DebateoftheUNGeneralAssemblyusually conflict and post-conflict situations. This n TheWorldSummitinSeptember 2005asked overshadowotherissuesintheUNinSep- hasnotbeensubmitted� for“fairandclearproceduresfor listing and tember. This September, however, the n TheDecember 2004reportbytheSecre- de-listing individuals for targeted sanc- SecurityCouncilwillbeverymuchonthe tary-Generalonhumanrightsviolationsin tions�”Thisissueremainstobeaddressed� mindsofmanyofthosehighlevelvisitors� Côte d’Ivoire,requestedbyapresidential n AlsoinSeptember 2005theWorldSummit Thereasonforthisisthat: statement,hasnotbeenmadepublicyet� askedtheCounciltoconsiderreformsto AlsoonCôte d’Ivoire,theDecember 2005 theMilitary Staff Committee. Thishasnot n Therearetwohotlycontestedelections for seats in the Council. Therewillbea reportbytheSecretary-General’sSpecial yetbeentakenupbytheCouncil� Security Council Report OneDagHammarskjöldPlaza,885SecondAvenue,31stFloor,NewYork,NY10017T:12127596327F:12127594038www�securitycouncilreport�org 1 OVERVIEW FOR SEPTEMBER(continued) reductioninthefieldisforthepositionof 1559and1595andsubsequentresolutions nowbeappliedtothesituationinDarfur� the permanent members to become theCouncildemonstrateditcouldacteffec- Butwhilethereremainsoptimismthatcon- transparent. There is increasing talk tively and decisively. In the post 1701 sentarrangementswillbenegotiated,the amongstCouncilmembersthatthepro- environment,whereitseemsthatallparties realityonthegroundforciviliansremains cessshouldnowbeadjustedtopermit haveavestedinterestinbeingabletoshow bleakandisdeteriorating. Manyobservers that. Fortheirpart,itseemsthatnoneof that1701wastherightpath,theopportu- senseadisasterloomingandarelooking thefourdeclaredcandidatesseeanyrea- nitymayexistfortheCounciltotakeupa foraCouncil“PlanB”iftheresolutionand son to withdraw. To the contrary, it is wideractiveroleasitsuggestedinpara- follow-updiplomacydonotproducearesult possiblethat,forreasonsofequity,allof graph9oftheresolution� withinafewweeks� themwillinsistonstayingintheraceuntil OurbriefonLebanoncanvassestherange allpotentialcandidatesaredeclared. As Iran of very difficult substantive issues that forthetiming,theCouncilissofarbeing ThereisnodoubtthatthemonthofSep- thiswillinvolveanddiscussessomeofthe cautious. Butmostobserversseemtobe temberwillseeamajorfocusonIranandits implications� expectinganumberofstrawpollstobe response to the package of incentives conductedoveraperiodofdaysinlate Darfur regardingnegotiationsonitsnuclearpro- September. Alsothereseemstobemuch Itseems,asthisForecastgoestoprint,that gramme. Muchoftheactionmayplayoutin lessconfidencethattheprocesswillbe the Council will adopt before the end of NewYork,especiallyatthehighlevelinthe concludedinearlyOctober� AugustaresolutiononDarfur. Itisimportant marginsoftheGeneralAssembly. But,as Lebanon intworespects� hasbeenthecaseformostofthisyear,it n Itestablishesclearlythemandateforthe seemsthatverylittleofthediscussionwill TheSecretary-General’scurrentvisittothe desired UN presence in Darfur, which take place in the Council. Indeed, it is MiddleEastisinresponsetotheCouncil’s mayremovesomeoftheuncertaintyand entirelypossiblethattheonlyinvolvement requestinresolution1701thatheconsult anxietythattheauthoritiesinKhartoum ofthetenelectedCouncilmemberswillbe with“relevantinternationalactorsandthe seemedtoharbourabouttheexactmis- occasionalinformalbriefings� concernedparties”andcomeupwith“pro- siontheUNwouldhave�Itshouldnow posals”to: Against this background our Iran brief be possible to discuss consent con- n implement resolutions 1559 and 1680 examinestheoptionsthattheP5plusGer- cretely, rather than on the basis of (whichcallforthedisbandinganddisar- manymightbringbacktotheCouncil. It abstractideas� mamentofmilitiasinLebanon)andthe alsodiscussestheconditionsunderwhich n Itprovidesaninnovativeandgenerous Taif Accords reached by the Lebanese abasismightexistforproceedingtothe approachtocooperationwiththeAfrican parties;and negotiating stage, as well as a possible Union in support of their mission in n delineate the Lebanese border, espe- compromise“lastchance”resolution� Darfur,AMIS. Thisisparticularlyimpor- ciallyintheSheb’aFarmsarea� tantbecauseAMISisvulnerable,notonly Giventhestakesinvolved,andthehistoryof TheCouncilwillhavetheseproposalson toanupsurgeofviolencedirectedagainst verylengthynegotiationsonthisissueto thetable. Inadditionitexpressedin1701its it,butalsotoincreaseddisenchantment date,itseemsunlikelythataCouncildeci- “intention to be actively involved” in the bythecivilianpopulationinDarfurand sionwillbemadeinSeptember� searchfora“longtermsolution”andasked also because of serious funding prob- the Secretary-General to support that as lems. Theresolutionisaclearsignalof Other Issues well. Nodoubthewillalsohaveobserva- internationalsupportforAMISatthistime� The Council will also have on its plate a tionsonthis� ItservesasatriggernotonlyforUNassis- rangeofotherbigissues: tance,butalsoasarationalefordonors n Kosovo:animportantbriefingbySpecial Resolution 1701 in addition reminded tocontinuesupportforitsothatthereisa EnvoyAhtisaari everyone that the long term perspective properfoundationonwhichtransitionto n UNIIC: a briefing from Commissioner alsorequires“acomprehensive,justand aUNoperationcanbebased� Brammertz lastingpeaceintheMiddleEastbasedon n Somalia:importantContactGroupand allitsrelevantresolutions�” Buttheresolutiondoesnotofitselfsolvethe sanctionsdevelopments underlyingissueofsecuringconsentfrom n Iraq: briefings on MNF, UNMOVIC and TherewasmuchcriticismoftheCouncilfor Khartoum. ThebriefonDarfur/Sudanout- possiblyUNAMI itsrelativeinactionastherecentcrises,first linesissuesandproblemsassociatedwith n Ethiopia/Eritrea:mandaterenewal inGazaandtheninLebanon,unfolded. His- this. Onenewfactor,whichcarriedweight n Liberia:mandaterenewalandsanctions torically, and certainly for the past two with many of Sudan’s friends and neigh- issues decades,thishaslargelybeenthedefault
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