Wilson Center Africa Program Africa: Year in Review 2016 Table of Contents 4 A Letter from the Director, Dr. Monde Muyangwa TRADE, INVESTMENT, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Expanding Economic Relations under a Trump Administration, 7 Dr. Mima S. Nedelcovych 8 A Global Stage for Africa’s Rising Tech Entrepreneurs, Mr. Grant Harris 9 A Dark Year for Internet Freedom, Ms. H. Nanjala Nyabola SECURITY, CONFLICT RESOLUTION, AND PEACEBUILDING 11 Financing Security for All in Africa, Dr. Raymond Gilpin 12 Sahel Stabilization Emerges as Continental Priority, Dr. Sophia Moestrup 13 Austerity and Unrest in Chad, Dr. Alex Thurston 14 Losing Legitimacy? UN Peace Missions in Africa, Dr. Ann L. Phillips African Horizons: Supporting Africa’s Progress Through Long-term Security 15 Cooperation, Major General Joseph P. Harrington INCLUSIVE GOVERNANCE AND LEADERSHIP 18 Consolidating Democracy in Benin, Dr. Landry Signé 19 The Crisis in Burundi, Mr. Steve McDonald 20 The Gambia’s Shaky Democratic Transition, Ms. Kamissa Camara 21 President Jammeh’s “Impossible” U-Turn over the Election, Dr. Arsène Brice Bado, S. J. 2 Table of Contents 22 The Democratic Republic of Congo: A Political Alternation, Father Emmanuel Bueya, S. J. Uganda Takes in Refugees: Addressing a Global Challenge, Ms. Helen 23 Kezie-Nwoha AFRICA AND THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT When Threats Become Reality: African Countries Withdraw from the ICC, Mr. 25 Anton du Plessis and Ms. Ottilia Anna Maunganidze 26 The ICC: A Big Deal? Mr. Nii Akuetteh SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN 28 The Evolution of U.S.-Sudan Relations, Ambassador Nureldin Satti Bloodshed in South Sudan: The Risk of Spiraling Into Genocide, Dr. Getachew 29 Zeru Gebrekidan AFRICA’S EVOLVING ROLE IN THE GLOBAL ARENA 31 China-Africa Relations: Trends and Policies, Mr. Winslow Robertson 32 Brexit and Africa: Beyond the Doom, Mr. Olusegun Sotola 33 A Global Trifecta Will Shape Africa in 2017, Ms. Vivian Lowery Derryck Please note that the views expressed in these essays are solely the responsibility of the authors, and not those of the Wilson Center. Cover image: Photo by “weesam2010.” Creative Commons. 3 Africa: Year in Review 2016 A Letter from the Director 2016 was an eventful year for Africa and for the world, with important implications for U.S.-Africa relations. The Wilson Center Africa Program asked experts, scholars, and policymakers to weigh in on the most important and impactful events on the continent in 2016. They responded with this collection of brief and insightful essays. In some cases multiple perspectives on the same development—the Gambia’s elections and the International Criminal Court—highlighted both areas of concurrence and disagreement. The election of Donald Trump created surprise and shock across the political spectrum and around the world. While some see opportunity for Africa from this non-traditional politician, others are concerned about the president-elect’s campaign rhetoric and how it might translate into foreign policy come January 20, 2017. Some commentators were struck by the opportunities presented by Africa’s tech sector, highlighted by Mark Zuckerberg’s trip to the continent. On the flip side, others were concerned about the increasing tendency by some African leaders to restrict Internet access at critical times in the democratic process, thereby curtailing citizens’ democratic space and rights. The democracy landscape changed significantly in 2016. While a number of African countries suffered democratic setbacks, not so Benin, which consolidated its democratic governance with its sixth presidential and legislative election since 1992. The elections in the Gambia struck a chord with many first hailing the result as a victory for democracy, only for uncertainty to prevail, threatening that country’s maiden steps towards democracy after 22 years of rule by President Jammeh. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a slow-motion constitutional crisis was unleashed by delayed elections, while in Burundi, the conflict kicked off by 2015’s elections continued. Amid Page 4 and 5 image: Photo by Mark Fischer. Creative Commons. 4 the continued turmoil of conflict in a number of central African countries as well as the broader Horn of Africa region, Uganda played a positive role in alleviating the plight of refugees, taking in thousands of refugees in a crisis that gets far less press than the Mediterranean refugee crisis. Insecurity continued to be a major source of concern for the continent. A dip in security sector financing offered an opportunity for measures that could be taken in the years ahead to reform it in order to more effectively deliver security for ordinary African citizens. Other commentators highlighted the ongoing security challenges in Chad, in the Sahel, and with United Nations peacekeeping missions. Amidst all of these challenges, the United States, including through U.S. Army Africa, has continued to build partnerships and relationships aimed at helping build African security capacities. The decision of South Africa, Burundi, and the Gambia to withdraw from the International Criminal Court provoked a heated discussion as well as concern across the continent and internationally. A number of countries defended the role of the Court, while others highlighted the need for reforms in order for the Court to have legitimacy on the continent. Sudan remains a key actor in the region, and in 2016 it sought to play a constructive role despite strained relations with the United States. In South Sudan, meanwhile, efforts to find a solution to the continuing conflict showed slow progress. On the international front, the UK’s “Brexit” represents uncertainty, but also opportunity. China is playing an increasingly assertive role on the security front, and is reconfiguring its foreign policy priorities, with implications for African countries. We thank all of the authors for their contributions. As 2017 begins, we must reflect and draw insight from the key developments of this past year, to capitalize on successes, and to address the challenges to come. Dr. Monde Muyangwa Director, Africa Program Page 4 and 5 image: Photo by Mark Fischer. Creative Commons. 5 A warehouse in Ethiopia. Photo by Synergos Institute. Creative Commons. TRADE, INVESTMENT, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 6 The election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency may highlight the business opportunities available in 6 the U.S.-Africa relationship. Other essays focus on the promise of tech entrepreneurship, as well as the dark side of Internet access and government control. Expanding Economic Relations Under a Trump Administration Dr. Mima S. Nedelcovych The election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States on November 8 signaled what may be a major shift in U.S.-Africa relations and policy. The simple answer is that we currently don’t know what the Trump Administration’s policy toward Africa will be. President-elect Trump’s presidential campaign did not shed much light on his foreign policy approach toward Africa. Let’s start with what we do know: We know that President-elect Trump outlined that U.S. foreign policy will put American interests first. Trump has said that he wants the U.S. to get out of the “nation-building” business, while assuring its own security interests. The fact that his Cabinet is lined with generals gives us a good indication that special attention will be paid to countries threatened by extremism. We also know that Donald Trump is a businessman who is always on the lookout for good deals. Now, how that translates into foreign policy is unclear, but we can safely predict that U.S.-Africa engagement will likely take a private sector approach to development—a “trade, not aid” strategy that will draw on private sector expertise. The Obama Administration has been leaning in this direction with signature initiatives like the Power Africa plan to double access to electricity in Africa; the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act; two U.S.-Africa Business Forums; and the “Doing Business in Africa” campaign to strengthen U.S.-Africa trade and investment ties. The Initiative for Global Development (IGD), the organization that I lead, is a network of African and global business leaders who are committed to sustainable development and inclusive growth through business investment. Over the past decade, African homegrown businesses have rapidly expanded and matured to become engines of growth on the continent, creating more than 80 percent of jobs in their countries. When President-elect Trump enters office, the new Administration will discover a number of African countries with thriving and dynamic markets and a vibrant private sector with good deals to be made. As more countries get their business environment right, more opportunities will present themselves. A U.S. policy that encourages and favors countries that offer an enabling environment for the private sector will deliver long-term stability and sustainable development. A U.S. policy that promotes greater trade opportunities and investments in Africa’s private sector can only lead to stronger economies and prosperity in both Africa and America. Who would want to pass up that deal? DR.DR. MIMA MIMA S. S. NEDELCOVYCH NEDELCOVYCH is the is thePresident President and &CEO CEO of ofthe the Initiative Initiative for forGlobal Global Development. 7 Development. 77 A Global Stage for Africa’s Rising Tech Entrepreneurs Mr. Grant Harris When Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg made his first trip to Sub-Saharan Africa in August and September of 2016, he shone a spotlight on a phenomenon that gets all too little attention: Africa’s tremendous entrepreneurial potential in the technology sector. His visit highlighted exciting advances in tech hubs and mobile money systems—where Nigeria and Kenya are global leaders—as well as innovations like Ushahidi, a digital platform using crowd-sourced data to map demographic events. This message of creativity and dynamism—beamed to Zuckerberg’s 78 million Facebook followers and amplified further by the press—provides a valuable counter-weight to the dominant narrative of violence and poverty in Africa.