Format and Structure of a Database on Health and Environmental Impacts of Different Energy Systems for Electricity Generation

IAEA-TECDOC-645

Format structureand ofdatabasea on health environmentaland impacts of different energy systems for electricity generation

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INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY 2\ The IAEA does not normally maintain stocks of reports in this series. However, microfiche copie f thesso e reportobtainee b n sca d from

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Orders shoul accompaniee db prepaymeny db f Austriao t n Schillings 100,- in the form of a cheque or in the form of IAEA microfiche service coupons which may be ordered separately from the INIS Clearinghouse. FORMA STRUCTURD TAN DATABASA F EO N EO HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SYSTEM ELECTRICITR SFO Y GENERATION IAEA, VIENNA, 1992 IAEA-TECDOC-645 ISSN 1011-4289

Printed by the IAEA in Austria April 1992 FOREWORD

e environmentaTh healtd an l h impact f differeno s t energy systems, particularly those associated wit generatioe hth electricityf no emergine ar , significans ga t issuer sfo policy formulation in the coming decades. This, together with the emerging need of many countries to define their energy programmes for the next century, has provided the a renewebasi r fo s d interes e comparativth n i t e risk assessmen f differeno t t energy sources, fossil, nuclear, renewables, in order to account for their effects on health and the environment in decision making as an integral part of energy planning.

The IAEA, in co-operation with other international organizations, is strengthening its efforts in comparative health and environmental risk assessment for different energy systems, particularly those associated with electricity generation. Emphasi s beini s g placeco-ordinatioe th n do researcf no filo ht l gap knowledgen si developmene th ) i n o , t of relevant databases, and ii) on improvements to methodological and procedural approaches.

This document focuseformae th structurd n o san t databasa f eo r healtefo d han environmental impacts o facilitatt , d providan e e essential a crediblinpu r fo t e comparative risk assessment over the entire cycle of different energy sources for the generatio f electricityno .

e documenTh s beeha t n compile e outcomth s a df Technica o e l Committee Meeting IAEse hel th programm s pary s Ait d a b f o t thin ei s field. EDITORIAL NOTE

In preparing this material for the press, staff of the International Atomic Energy Agency have mounted paginatedand originalthe manuscripts submittedas authorsthe givenby and some attention presentation.tothe The views expressed in the papers, the statements made and the general style adopted are the responsibility of the named authors. The views do not necessarily reflect those of the governments of the Member States or organizations under whose auspices the manuscripts were produced. The use in this book of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of specific companies or of their products or brand names does not imply any endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. Authors themselvesare responsible obtainingfor necessarythe permission reproduceto copyright material from other sources. This text was compiled before the recent changes in the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION ...... 7

PART I. STRUCTURE AND FORMAT OF A DATABASE ON HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT DIFFERENF SO T ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION

1. Introduction ...... 1 1 . . 2 Broad requirement database th contexe f th so n ei f comparativ o t e risk assessment for different energy sources ...... 2 1 . 3. Components and contents of the database ...... 15 . 4 Overvie structure th f wo e ...... 5 2 .

PAR . HEALTTH ENVIRONMENTAD HAN L IMPACT DIFFERENF SO T ENERGY SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION: POSITION PAPERS ON DATABASE AND ASSOCIATED CONSIDERATIONS

Statu f Databaseo s healtn so environmentad han l impact f differeno s t energy systems in some IAEA Member States and International Organizations ...... 29 Summary of papers ...... 33 Comments on energy risk analysis ...... 39 A.F. Fritzsche Comparative risks of nuclear electricity : A framework for decisions ...... 57 R.S. Rodliffe Comparative risk assessmen varioufor t s energy systems: Issue reviein s w ...... 73 . S. Haddad The need for environmental data in the United Kingdom ...... 89 O.E. Betteridge Medical aspect developmene th f so environmentan a f o t l data base taking into account experienc keepinn ei g population related cancer records ...... 1 9 . W. Mehnert, S. Hähnel Ecological pay-back time for products and energy savings ...... 97 P. Hofstetter Assessing and managing health and environmental risks from energy complex industrial systems in the Zagreb area ...... 101 N. Malbasa, Z. Kisic Energy source Israen i s theid an l r impacnearbe th n yo t population accordin subjectivo gt e and objective approaches ...... 1 12 . A. Tamari Residual fuel usage in Haifa region (Israel): Changes in emissions and their impact on environmental health ...... 131 TamariA. EDB flexiblA : e databas r energefo y environmental analysis ...... 1 14 . B. Biewald, Lazarus, HippelM. von D. Development of a database for determination of environmental impacts of energy projects in the Philippines ...... 149 A.D.D. Supetran Database concerning environmental impacts of energy generation on the territory of the former German Democratic Republic ...... 9 15 . N. Zuppke, M. Grosse IAEA Energy and Economic Databank ...... 171 International Atomic Energy Agency Description of methodology for calculating historical energy consumption and associated

CO2 emissions ...... 177 J.F. flocking Preliminary assessment on the environmental and health impacts of nuclear and coal fuel cycles ...... 7 18 . Yang Yin, Chen Zhuzhou, ZiqiangPan Human health effect f coao s l energy technology ...... 7 19 . W. Krewin, R. Friedrich Life cycle analysis for the assessment of environmental impacts ...... 219 WahlströmB. Environmental manua r powefo l r development ...... 3 22 . G. Schörner, R. Schönstein Lis f Participanto t s ...... 7 22 . INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION

There is a renewed interest in the application of tools and techniques of comparative risk assessmen plannine th n i t f energgo y mixe r electricitsfo y generation systems and particularly in the integration of health and environmental impacts in the decision making process for such systems.

Internationae th 1990n I , l Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) undertoo overaln ka l review of the current status of comparative risk assessment of the health and environmental impacts of different energy sources. Methods and applications of comparative risk assessment wer e subjecth e f importano t t development e latth e n i s 1970 earld san y 1980s.

The review indicates that it is essential, for a credible comparison to be made, to have reliable, up-to-date data on health and environmental risks, reflecting the whole rang f risko ed impact an s s ovee entirth r e cycl f differeno e t energy systemd an s technologies. Suc systematiha c database doe t exis no st present a t , although related information is scattered in a number of studies compiled over the past 20 years. The review has also identified several methodological key issues that ought to be resolved: time-dependence th rise th k f yestimateo s given variation technolog n sstati e th en i d yan of technological development of any energy system; the delineation of consistent boundarie comparinr sfo g different energy systems lace appropriatf ;th ko e indicatoro st measure and compare environmental risks; and, variations between geographic regions, countries or group of countries. The outcome of this review was further supported by comprehensiva Issuey eKe s Pape "Comparativn o r e Healt Environmentad han l Effects of Different Energy Sources for the Generation of Electricity" compiled by an expert e Seniogrouth r pfo r Expert Symposiu Electricitn mo e Environmentth d yan , heln di Helsinki proceedinge th 1991y , Ma , whicf so h were publishe IAEe th y A1991dn b i . Both the IAEA's review and the Key Issues Paper provide the basis and focus of IAEA activities in this area for 1991-1992 in particular. Three areas of activities guide the IAEA's wor thin ki s regard:

e establishmenTh n internationa) a a f o t l co-ordinated data bas n healto ed an h environmental effects of different energy sources. The data base could form the cor f informatioo e n resource r Membefo s r State assiso t s thein i t r planninf go electricity generation needs;

e compilatioTh b) f methodologieo n d procedurean s o assist s a consistenct e comparative risk assessment process, including reaching agreement on methods for dealing with uncertainties; improved methods of presenting results and the development of environmental indicators or risk; e developmenTh ) c methodf o t integratioe th r sfo f comparativno e risk assessment into electricity planning, including the provision of guidance advise to Member Stateapplicatioe th n si relevante th f no tool techniquesd san . The implementation of the above is being undertaken through a number of Technical Committee Meetings, Consultancy service in-housd san e research.

In the context of the above, this document focuses on the framework structure of a databas r healt fo ed environmenta an h l impact f differeno s t energy sourcer fo s electricity generatio delineatd nan various eit s requirements e documen. th Parf o I t t presents such a framework. Following a Summary of Papers, Part II of the document present a rangs f technicao e l papers highlighting relevant information, issued an s research in a number of Member States, national institutions and international organizations.

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STRUCTUR FORMAD E AN DATABAS A F TO N EO HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 1. Introduction

1.1. Background information

Comparative informatio healtn no environmentad han l effect differenf o s t energy systems, particularly those involve e generatioth n i d f electricito n f growino s i y g importance to the decision making processes concerning environmental and safety management and overall energy planning. The coming decade will experience greater emphasis on the use of such comparative information. This necessitates reliable, up to date and credible data - presented in a consistent and coherent manner which reflects e wholth e rang f riskeo impactd an s s ove e entirth r e fue l e varioucyclth f o e s energy system technologiesd san . Suc systematiha c database doe t exiss no t present ta , although related informatio varyinf no g qualit scattereys i mann di y publications compiled ovee rth past 20 years. Existing information is often presented.in isolation to service a particular purpose. Hence the need for an overall comprehensive database of practical value to decision makers.

e InternationaTh l Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) co-ordination i , liaisod nan n with other international organizations, is strengthening its effort in comparative assessment variouf so s energy systems, includin establishmene gth internationalln a f o t y agreed and authoritative database on health and environmental impacts, identification of gaps in knowledge and coordinate research programs, the establishment of a f suco e disseminatiohe th framewor us datd e an ath r fo kf sucn o h informatioo t n Member States.

1.2. Scope and objectives of the report

f thi o e mai s m Th repor nai preseno t s i te overal th t l framewor e basia th f o sd an k structure and associated considerations of a database on health and environmental impacts of different energy sources, concentrating on those sources associated with the generatio f electricityno .

formae database th Th f o t e presente thin di s report will computerizehave b o et d on an appropriate database management system. Detailed specifications for such a computerized system will have to be formulated. The content of this report could be used as the basis for preparing these detailed specifications.

1.3. Rang f applicationeo database th f so e

The main areas of application of the database are as follows (not in order of priority):

(a) an input to comparative health and environmental risk assessment studies for different energy systems for the generation of electricity;

(b) a scientific and technical basis in formulation/selection of energy options for polic decisiod yan n makin electricitn gi y (energy) planning;

11 (c) a tool and a source of information for health and environment impact assessment at the plant/activity level. Environmental impact assessment studies are increasingly becoming an integral component of project developments;

(d) an essential and integral input to comparative economic planning and assessment based on costing externalities to reflect the 'real cost' of different energy options;

data a sourc) (e healtr e fo environmenta d han l impact assessmen energf o t y systems, for developing countries in particular where the need exists to integrate health environmend an t factors- into energy planning;

n informationaa (f) l toor environmentafo l d safetan l y performanc f operatino e g plants and as basis for future plants improvements;

inpun a (gt) into ecological balance studie variouf so s energy systems; e risk th f differeno st pu o t t (henerg) y options into perspectiv d facilitatan e e communication wit generae hth l public;

(i) to address issues of public perception of risk, which influence the decision making process. The database may facilitate a rational public debate.

. 2 Broad requirement e databas th e contex th f o sn f i comparativo e t e risk assessmen r differenfo t t energy sources

The format, content and structure of the database have to relate closely to its main purpos aread e an application f so , mainl comparative yth e healt environmentad han l risk assessment of different energy systems for the generation of electricity. This section highlight essentiae sth l requirement database th contexe f so areth s it n f mai ei f ao o t n applications.

(a) The database will relate specifically to health and environmental risk from electricity generating systems

Most energy t convertesourceno r usee no ar s d o t dexclusivel r electricitfo y y production. They are, concurrently also used for transportation, heating, cooking, etc.

The database will focus in this instance on those systems and risks associated with electricity generation therefory ma t I e necessar.b e o introducyt e certain weighting date th specificall o at f o e us factor e yth focun i s than o s wholte parth f eo t energy system associated with electricity generation particularn I . plana f i , use s cogeneratioa i t n di n scheme this fact will takee havb o et n into account. Initially, electricity distribution will considerede b t no .

(b) The database will enable the user to attribute the impact data on a country or regional basis. The database should help the user to evaluate impacts for his specific needs, choosing mostthe relevant data included database,the in i.e. data froma region/country most closely resembling case the question. in

12 In fact, the results of impact assessment often relate to one country, group of countries or developmentally related countries and may not be immediately transferred o givt e specific indications under different conditions s questionabli t I . e therefore whether comparative regiostudiee on r ns fo directl y appl anothero yt , give variatione nth s technologicale inth , economi sociad can l settings.

t shoulI possible db attributo et rise eth k dat specifio at c countrie regionr so o s that relevant credible comparative studies can be performed. Data collection at a plant level may be necessary.

(c) The database will include information covering the entire fuel cycle of different energy systems; componentsthe eachof cycle definedhavebe to accordingly.

A fuel cycle consists of all activities and installations needed in the generation of electricity, including for example mining, transportation, conversion, waste disposal. It welw ino sl established tharise th tk associated wit generatioe hth f electricitno y from e riskth eac f s o hresultin m fuesu l e cyclge contributorth th fros ei l mal y e stepth f o s cycle concerned e comparativth n I . e risk assessment process necessars i t i , exposo yt e the risks associated with each step of the fuel cycle as well as those from the entire fuel cycle. The database will therefore include environmental and health data for each step fuee ofth l cycle. This necessitate cleae sth r definitio varioue th f no s component eacf so h fuel includecycle b date o et th an di base . databaseThe (d) will only include data from routine (normal) operating conditionsand continuous emissions.

The comparative risk assessment process must differentiate between health and environmental risks from normal routine operations and those from severe accidents. The requirements and processes associated with each are different. At the present time we consider only routine conditions. Database for major accidents is envisaged separately.

(e) The database will make clear reference to all assumptions applicable to the data. The level of plant technology and safety and pollution control standards will be included.

The time dependency of the risk estimates particularly in light of variations over time in the technology and in the state of technological development of any energy systems are important considerations in comparative risk assessment. It is necessary for the data to clearly relate to the specific technology including where possible the standard of environmental and safety controls.

(f) The database will include all relevant dimensions of health and environmental impacts.

Because in the comparative risk assessment process the various categories and dimensions of health and environmental risks should be presented and treated separately, it is necessary to have access to all relevant categories of risks.

13 In terms of health impacts, occupational and public risks should be treated separately. Two categories of risk apply as a result of direct or indirect impacts:

Fatal effects, either immediate (resulting from direct exposur lethao et l doser so other accidents) or delayed (e.g. resulting from chronic exposure to hazardous substances);

Non-fatal effects (injuries, diseases f eitheo ) immediatn a r r delayeeo d nature.

In relation to environmental impacts, categorization can be made on the basis of the extent: local, regional and global; and on the duration of the effect: short or medium ter lond man g term.

(g) The source of the estimates of impacts must be clearly referenced and the conditions under which such estimates were made must be indicated. It may not be appropriate includeto detailedthe models dose-effectsand relationships estimatingfor healthor environmental risks and impacts. However, infonnation on the health and environmental effects of different substances will be provided where possible/available.

e assessmenth n I t proces impacte th f so f differen o s t energy source publie th s c health impacts, particularly in terms of delayed fatalities and chronic diseases mainly from power plant operation environmentae th d san l impact variouf so s pollutant airn so , majof wateo soid e ran ar rl concern.

Health impacts areae th n si : surrounding power plant facilitied san fuee th lf o s cycle most existin gtermn i dat e acutf aso ar e fatalitie publiworkere o e st th th o s t ca r so result of accidents during routine operations and associated activities. Few data exist on chronic effects or delayed fatalities as the result of exposure to the wide range of air pollutants including , SONO2CO ,^ particulates organic matters, heavy metald an s radionuclides. Suc obtainee hb daty ama d fromaio mtw n sources studie) :i s carriet dou (including epidemiological studies) in the surrounding of power plants under various conditions estimatioy b ) ii ; n using dispersion modellin calculato gt e ambien r leveai t l concentrations and dose-effect relationships to estimate health effects usually in terms oprobabilita f f increasyo morbidityn ei .

Environmental impacts: it is not easy to quantify environmental impacts from energy sources. Most existing data are limited to the emission rates of pollutants under various burnin controd gan l conditions eas.n a However t y tasno quantifs o ki t t i , e yth impacts of energy sources upon the environment. Nevertheless, the database should also include data on environmental impacts. The sources of such impact data may be twofolds: from measurements under various situations; and from estimates using available modelling techniques which provid correlatioea n betwee e source th n th d ean receptor. Estimating the multitude of possible environmental impacts necessitates extensive future methodological developments quantifieA . d environmental risk impact index may not be possible in all cases given the multitude of species in various ecosystems and the complexity of the various exposure mechanisms which may involve a degree of recoverability in some cases and irreversible damage in other situations. Figur broaa s i ed1 outlin overale th f eo l approach.

14 SOURCE IMPACTS ON HEALTH & EMISSIONS ENVIRONMENT

MEDIA .FROM .AIR MEASUREMENT'S l,\ A .FROM .WATER \ T ESTIMATES .LAND \

Fig. 1. Generalized environmental transfer pathway

The data on public health and environmental impacts are in many cases location dependent t proposeno s i t o includI dt . e model dose-effecd an s t relationshipd an s economic impact assessment as an integral built-in part of this database although a link may need to be further developed to these tools as part of a broader information management system. Rather proposes i t i , includo dt e datimpacd aan t estimates from various situation ensurd san e thabasie assumptiond th t san s use sucr dfo h estimatee sar clearly included and referred to, so that the user may select the data most appropriate to the situation under consideration.

e uncertaintieTh datn estimatiod si aan n shoul reportede db .

3. Components and contents of the database

followine Th g basic components relate contente th database o dth t f so e havo et specifiee b orden di mako t r e sufficient descriptio database th f no e structure:

Location; Energy sources, system f conversionso applicationsd an ; Stages of the various fuel cycles; Technolog related yan d parameters; Health impact data (including reference sourcing); Environmental impact data (including reference sourcing).

3.1. Location

Within the framework in which the database will be developed it is important to specify the country as well as the aggregation of countries (region) from which the data emanate.

15 3.2. Energy sources and systems of conversion

Three group f energo s y sourcee generatioth r fo s f electricito n y shoule b d included: Fossil Fuel Group, Nuclear Group, Renewable Group. The data base structure coul made db e flexibl accommodato et e (with time) additional energy sources if such sources become significant contributors to electricity generation. Table I shows the energy sources associated with these three groups together with examples of conversion systems.

TABLE I

ENERGY PRODUCTION SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH ELECTRICITY

Energy Group Energy Source Energy System (Examples) Fossil Fuel Coal Direct coal combustion Pressurized Fluidized dBe Combustion Atmospheric Fluidized dBe Combustion Coal gasification MHD

Oil Direct oil combustion

Naturas Ga l Gas steam boiler Gas turbine

Peat l shalOi e r sandTa s

Nuclear PWR BWR Candu HTR

Renewable Hydropower Accumulation Running rivers Pumping storage

Geothermal Conventional Binary Solar-photovoltaic Solar-Thermal Central tower Wind Biomass Harvesting Energy crops Waste Incineration

16 3.3. Components of different fuel cycles

The definition of the boundaries of various energy systems is not straightforward. The main issue here is whether the boundaries should be limited from the point of fuel gainin minind poine gan th electricitf o go tt y productio wastd nan e storag processingr eo , shoulr o boundariee dth extendee sb encompasso dt , say gainine th , resourcef go e th r sfo building and operation of the generating plant facility.

There is obviously a need to agree on some boundaries in the interest of practicality. It is also necessary for the data base to specify the various steps within the agreed boundaries thao s , t data collectio estimationd nan targetee sb theso dt e different specific steps.

e healt Th d environmentaan h l data will include impact d riskan s s froe mth different fuee stepth l f scycleo . attempFigure2 1 o t specifo s2 t t varioue yth s ster pfo different fuel cycleincludee b date o st th an di base . Figur relate3 e1 morn si e detaie th l component thref so e representative fuel cycle theio st r various environmental impacts.

3.4. Technolog related yan d parameters

The technical data and other parameters should enable the complete identificatio conditione th f no s applicabl impace th o et t data. Essential parametero st be included in this regard are as follows:

nature fuee Th th l f ecyclo e and/o type activitth f eo f ro whico yt date hth a apply. r examplFo e whether minin undergrouns gi surfacr do e mining; whether transport is by rail, road or ship;

type technologf Th eo y (includin technological gal l assumptions) applicable th o et fuel cycle componen whico t t impace hth t data applies;

Technica d operationaan l l parameter e differenth f o s t activitie o whict s e th h impact data applies. Such parameters include: availability, efficiency, unit size, output, capacity, etc;

For each energy source, it is necessary to include the 'intrinsic' characteristics of relevance to and with direct or indirect implications on pollutant emissions, health and environmental effects.

r fossiFo l fuels such characteristic includey sma :

Caloric value Moisture content Ash content Sulphur content Carbon content Nitrogen content Trace metals Impurities Tar content Radionuclides

17 COAL

MINING

COAL

PREPARATION

COAL

TRANSPORT

PUNT POWER PLANT

CONSTRUCTION OPERATION

WASTE

MANAGEMENT

Fig. 2. Coal fuel cycle

CRUDL EOI

DRILLING EXTRACTIO* N

CRUDE OIL

TRANSPORTATION

OIL

PROCESSIN GREFININ« G

REFINED OIL

TRANSPORTATION

PUNT POWE NU TRP CONSTRUCTION OPERATION

Fig. 3. l fueOi l cycle

18 GAS DRILLING « EXTRACTION

GAS PROCESSING

& STORAGE

GAS TRANSPORTATION

PIANT ROW ER PLANT DISMANTLING CONSTRUCTION OPERATION

Fig. 4. s fueGa l cycle

URANIUM ORE MINING

MINERAL TREATMENT

TRANSPORTATIOE OR F NO

COSTRUCTION CONVERSION TO UF6 DISMANTLING

TRANSPORTATIO6 UF F NO

ENRICHMENT PROCESS

TRANSPORTATION _L CONSTRUCTION CONVERSIO2 UO O NT J-C DISMANTLING CONSTRUCTION Vf FUEL FABRICATION M DISMANTLING

TRANSPORT/ TOJB&EMBUE*

PLANT CONSTRUCTION POWER PLANT OPERATION 3-L DISMANTLING

SPENT FUEL TFtANSPOHTATION

REPROCESSING DISMANTLING

TRANSPORTATION TRANSPORTATION !

WASTE DISPOSAL

Fig. 5. fueR l LW cycle with recycl f uraniueo m

19 WATER

ACCUMULATION

POWER PLANT

OPERATION

Fig . 6 . Hydropower cycle

OBILUNQ EXTRACTIO& N

STEAM

TRANSPORT

PLANT POWER PLANT

CONSTRUCTION OPERATION

Fig. 7. Geothermal fuel cycle

FABRICATION t TRANSPOR T POWER PLANT OF FUEL CEUfr'LANT DISMANTLING OPERATION CONSTRUCTION

Fig. 8. Photovoltaic cycle

FABRICATION * TRANSPORT POWER PLANT OF PANELS * PLANT OPERATION DISMANTLING CONSTRUCTION

Fig. 9. Solar (thermal) fuel cycle

20 WINDMILL POWER PLANT DISMANTLING CONSTRUCTION OPERATION

. Fig10 . Wind fuel cycle

BIOMASS PRODUCTION & HARVESTING

BIOMASS TRANSPORTATION

PLANT POWER PLANT DISMANTLING CONSTRUCTION OPERATION

WASTE MANAGEMENT

Fig. 11. Biomass fuel cycle

PREPARATION

INCREMENTAL WASTE TRANSPORTATION

PLANT WASTE TREATMENT & INCINERATION CONSTRUCTION (POWER PLANT OPERATION)

WASTE DISPOSAL

. Fig12 . Municipal waste incineration fuel cycle

21 . tr E REGION/ , < ce COUNTRY <

ENERGY SOURCE

J t o

H ÜJ 0. 5 I ». H § X u ü * 5 § Ig 1 PO fe ig S ) S tt° < (U°

iU F1 •a- O ^JE ll K FUEL CYCLE STEP

c Xu ...... püX 1 r-

S TECHNICAL PARAW ETERS 1— — 1————— i ———————— 1

FUEL«. INPUT MATERIALS

CONSTRUCTION OPERATIONAL PHASE OPERATION DISMANTLING NORMAL OPERATION

MODE MAJOR ACCIDENTS r

ENVIRONMENTAL EMISSION IMPACTS& S

HEALTH IMPACTS: (PERSONS, TYPE, NATURE)

H. LU ,11]: Specialized databases.

. Fig13 . Illustratio structura f database no th r e fo healtn eo environmentad an h l impacts from different energy sources

The list is not exhaustive and the detailed structure of the data base will have to allow for the addition of more characteristics as necessary. Other fuels (e.g. uranium, municipal waste) necessitat specificatioe eth differenf no t characteristics.

The type and efficiency of pollution control technologies applicable to the facility and/or activit whico yt impace hth t data apply.

3.5. Health riseffectd kan s

The data on health risk should differentiate between the various categories of risks. The following is a suggested classification of the various health risk indicators to includee b databasee th n di :

) (a Person t riska s ;

- Workers: Occupational risks to people working within the facility or undertakin associatee gth d activity.

22 - Public: Ris membero kt generae th f o s l public outsid boundariee eth f o s the facility, as a function of distance from the plant, or not directly involved in the undertaking of the facility (this should include data mose onth t sensitive member publice th f so , where available).

) (b Typ harmf eo ;

- Fatality: Deaths expressed on a normalized per unit of electricity produced (Deaths/GW(e).a); in due course it may be necessary to provide dat Yearn ao f LifsO e Lost (YOLL).

- Non-fatal (diseases or injuries harm):

For workers, expressed as injuries/GW(e).a or as Work Day Lost/GW(e).a e publith r cfo ; expresse s a diseased r o s injuries/GW(e).a. e necessarb e coursy du ma n providt o i yei t ; e data on Years of Reduction in Earning Capacity (YREC).

- Acute: Immediate harm, realize not daya matte few if s in dof r instantaneously.

- Delayed: Chronic harm, or harm after a latent period.

- Mutagenic: Effects across generations.

Each type of harm (fatality or injury and disease) may be of an immediate or long-term (delayed) nature.

(d) Source of data;

e referencTh e sourc r eacefo h healt hvarioue datth f ao s categories indicated above mus givene b t .

maio Tw n source healtf so appropriatee hb daty ama :

data on a statistical basis;

estimates, particularly for delayed effects and public risk generally, based on dose-effect relationships;

l case essentiaal s i t n si I clearlo t l comprehensiveld yan y referenc source eth f eo the data to ensure that the user is able to select the most appropriate conditions for the particular case under consideration.

23 3.6. Environmental riseffectd kan s

The derivation of environmental data, particularly in terms of environmental wels impacta t l establisheno s si healts da h data dateo T . ,agree o thern e edar indicef so environmental risk and as such most data are presented in terms of emissions (normalized per unit of electricity output). The database will contain not only data on emission t als sbu t wilo i l include informatio datd impactsn nan ao .

(a) Data on emissions;

For the different fuel cycles, emission rates to be accounted for should include all

major pollutants to air (among them: SO, CO, CO, NO^ Total Suspended Particulates 2

(TSP), hydrocarbons, heavy metals, radionuclides)2 ; all emissions to water including: organic and inorganic compounds, heavy metals and tocix substances and where available effluents BOD and COD contents, and PH characteristics; solid wastes; thermal pollution.

e effectTh f treatmeno s e effluentth f d solio t an sd wastes shoul e includeb d d together with the associated outflows where applicable.

(b) Dimensions of environmental impacts:

e environmentaTh l impacts shouldimensiono tw relatee de b th o timdf t sd o ean space:

years)w Short-ter- fe a Time ;o t p : m(u - Medium-term (within decades); - Long-term (over longer periods).

immediate Loca- Spaceth n (i l : e surrounding); - Regional (at a national, inter-countries level, could extend up to a continent);

- Global (e.g. greenhouse gases/global warming).

classifiee b o T termn di f ecosystemso anthropogenid an s c environment.

(d) Sources of data on environmental impacts:

methodo Tw proposee ar s assiso dt compilatioe th t f dat no environmentan ao l impacts:

Method I: A qualitative representation of the various dimensions of environmental effects which could be used in the compilation of a matrk of environmental effects. This matrix shoul e designedb comparativa s da e tool to attempt the ranking of the effects from different energy sources.

24 e databasTh e will provid source eth e referencin varioue th f go s impacts include thin di s matrix.

Method II: Quantitative information on the various environmental effects which is specifi e conditionth o t c particulaa f o s r sit r regioneo . Comprehensive source referencin s essentiagi ensuro t l e tha e uses accesl th t al ha r o t s assumption basid san f estimations so .

Such quantitative y comdatma ae from studies, measurementd an s information availabl variour efo s site regionsr so date Th a. could alse ob estimated for various conditions from different models. In the later case the models used and conditions and assumptions made should be clearly reference enablo t d usee eth seleco t r mose th t t appropriate conditions applicable to the particular application.

4. Overview of the structure

There are several approaches for the establishment of a structure to accommodate generae th l requirements indicate previoue th n di s section e followinTh . g parameters and/or data elemen presentee ar t preliminara s da y structure framework.

A: Country

B: Region

C: Energy Source

D: Energy System

: ApplicatioE n

F: Fuel Cycle Step

G: Technology

H: Essential Technical Characteristics

I: Fuel / Input material Characteristics

FN This component of the database refers to: Electricity, Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and Heat. The present database considers only electricity production and, when necessary, CHP.

25 J: Operational Phase (construction, operation, decommissioning)

K: Mode (normal operations, major accidents •!< -V )

L: Impact Healt= s h (HE / EnvironmenX) ) N (E t

The components of the health and environmental impacts may be detailed as follows:

Health Impacts (HE;.) Environmental Impact) N (E s

^ Persons at risk Environmental Media HE2: Type of harm EN2: Emissions HE3: Nature of harm Impact descriptors:

EN3: Time EN4: Space EN5: Receptor EN6: Impacts EN7: Pat r Evaluatiohfo f Impactno s EN8: Record of Past Calculations/Studies

e databasTh eN F doe t includno s e major accidents which e treatehavb a o et n di special manner presene Th . t database shoul e designedb alloo dt w linkina o gt specialized major accident database.

26 Next page(s) left blank PARTH

HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SOURCES FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION

POSITION PAPERS ON DATABASE AND ASSOCIATED CONSIDERATIONS STATUS OF DATABASES ON HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY SYSTEMS IN SOME IAEA MEMBER STATES AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

During the Technical Committee Meeting representative Member States and international organizations provide briea d f outline currenth f o e t statu f relevano s t database healtn so environmentad han l impact differenn si t countries summarA . s a s yi follows:

International Energy Agency (IEA): Has developed a methodology for calculating historical energy consumptio d associatean n d carbon dioxide emission r OECfo s D member countries (24) commencing from 1960 until 1988.The data represents standardized energy balance sheets expresse millionn di s tonnel equivalenoi f o s r fo t OECD countries, separated into specific regions :North America, Pacifid an c OECD-Europe energA IE . y balances have been detaile r eacdfo h fuekcoal, oil, gas, other solid fuels, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, heat, electricity, and in terms of total aggregat l fuelsal r .e fo Fuel crose sar s correlated with selective elements which display the distribution of the fuels amongst the various end use sectors.For the industry sector e end-useth e detailear s accordancn di e with some classification (e.g. irosteeld nan , non-ferrous metals, transport equipment,etc.) transpore th r Fo . t sector end-usee th , e sar broken down into: air, road, rail, inland water, etc. Emission factors are applied to conver equivalenl oi t carboo t n (CO2) emissions countrn o , y specifi regionad can l basis. The use of fossil fuels for the production of electricity is indicated as a separate entry.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Energ economid yan c databank includes dat worlwidn ao individuad ean l countries-energy consumptio productiond nan t alsi ; o contains economic and demographic statistics. The database provides data for nuclear and non-nuclear electricity production; it incorporates projected forecast values by means of computer models developed within the IAEA. Database could be accessed on-line or by using diskettes for the PC technology. The databank is a collection of information and data gathered from UN-sources and other international organizations, such as the World Bank.

United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) e EnvironmentaTh : l Database (EDB) was developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute-Boston Centre with partial funding from UNEP purpose database Th .th f eo twofold.ls ei usee b n di n ca t conjunction wite energth h y planning model LEA o calculatPt e environmentath e l loading of any energy scenario. The database can be used as "stand-alone" reference tool to provide appropiate data on the emissions of particular energy technologies. The aim date oth f a baspromoto t s ei e environmentally conscious energy plannin developinn gi g countries.

Switzerland: Experience in the country includes data for different energy scenarios and health-risk figures prepared durin e periogth f 1987-198o d e resul a Swisth f s o 8a t s parlamentary reques n energo t y scenario building e considereb . o t This a ha s a d "one-time" project. Environmental risk data collectioprogressn i w no dat o s n :i n ao health ris consistentls ki y collecte momente future th th r furtheo r n defo Fo . r wors ki planned.

France: Dat healtn ao h effectfiele nucleaf th do n i s r energ collectes yi Nationae th y db l Atomic Energy Commission authority; ten years data experience is available. A report

29 on this data collection wil publishee b l CECe th r t CEPNdfo .A , comparative health effects studies from different energy system developmend san t scenario promotede sar . Some studies stoppe e yearth n sdi 1984-1985 databasA . nuclean o e r power plants concerning workers exposure and releases is partly available.Joint work of the Atomic Energy Commissio Universite th d nan Stuttgarf yo t (Germany coar nuclead )fo an l r fuel cycles is in progress. Studies on economic consequences of different environmental damages are under preparation.

Austria: Studies on environmental impacts of hydro power plants have been performed during recent timdatd ean a were collected bees ha nt I reporte. d tha databasa t r efo ecosystems performanc developeds ei ; additional wor advancer kfo d coarenewabld lan e technologie alss si o considere practican di l terms. Data collectio datd nan a validation for different energy saving program undee sar r preparation.

Canada: Dat energn ao y systems, resource availability deman suppld dan y forecastd san data on potential impacts on health and environment are collected and monitored by the Department Energyf so , Environmen Healtd an t t both a level e hth governmentf so e Th . provincial government departments have provincial jurisdiction whil e federath e l government departments have the overall national jurisdiction. In addition the National Energy Board of the federal government also monitors the energy supply-demand data as well as interprovincial energy transfers and cross-border transfers to the U.S.A. Atomic Energ Canadayof , Ltd. federaa , l agency (Crown Corporation responsibl)is efor e developmenth e CANDth f o t U nuclear technolog monitord yan l nucleaal s r power related healt environmentad han l data nuclear Fo . r power generatio date healtnn th ao h and environmental impacts are well documented while similar data on other forms of energy are less than adequate. Efforts to integrate the data for different fuel cycles is under way. Electric utilities, whic mostle har y provincial crown corporation requiree sar d to carry out environmental impact studies for any proposed new generation facility.

Egypt: Data on coal, natural gas and hydro fuel cycles are partially collected with incomplete information on health and environmental impacts. Some specific studies on this matter are recorded. Research studies on risk assessment for industrial areas have started, including collection of data from power plants.

Germany: Becaust presene specificitno th n e countryf unitarn o ea th ca t f e o y yon , situation. Studies on nuclear energy (radiological effects and emissions) in the western par f German o tinfluence e th environmene d th yan n o s available ar t e from KFA-Julich earl e focoae th r th y lr 80sfueFo .l cycl West-Germann ei y economic-environmentad an l social impact studies and data are also available.Eastern part of Germany is under institutional reorganization. Dat bees aha n collecte r mainldfo l energyal y fuel cycles, but limited processin accesd gan dato st availables ai .

Denmark: Ris4> National Laboratory developed data base for emission of NOX and also environmentae foth r l effect fossif o s l fuel cycles (e.g. coal, oil). Denmar takins ki g part Corinaie th n i C r InternationawithiCE e nth l Projec Datn o t a Bas Environmentar efo l Impact f Differenso t Energy Systems.

Greece: During 1980-1985 studies have been don evaluatinr efo g impact environmenn so t from different energy fuel cycles, mainly lignite ,l (smal hydroi d lo an scal e technologies). The impact of flyashes (including radioactivity)is also recorded. Work on data base developmen r healt fo td environmenta an h l impacts from different energy systems i s under preparatio systematia n ni c manner.

30 Hungary: Comparative risk analysis for different energy systems requires data on environmenta healtd lan h impacts. This wil done morb a l n ei e systematic way. Complex risk analysis studie largr sfo e industrial areas will involve organized activit collectinn yi g and processing data.

Israel: Research studie datd healtn an sao environmentad han l effects from different energy system e availablear s . Base thin o ds data more elaborate comparative risk analysis studies is expected to be promoted. New standards for emissions will be adopted.

Italy: Information on health and environmental impacts were collected during 1987 for the National Conference on Energy Systems. ENEA participated in the CORINAIR data bank projecCECe th f nationae o t; datth n ao atmospherie l leveth r fo l c impacts reffering to the year 1985 is available. A three years research program is under the co-ordinatio Ministre th f no f Environmentyo ; this include computerizea s d systen mo storing and retrieving data on the national level (SINA-Sistema Informative Nationale Ambientale). Data on NO^ dust and VOC are collected and projected for the year 1995.

Japan: Wor developmene dons kth i r efo data f o ta ban healtn ko environmend han r fo t the use by the government. For the last ten years, technical data on energy systems are available. More recently, economic and environmental data were collected and embedded int odata a base. Comparative risk assessment studies wil promotede lb , while data is now continuing to be collected.

Netherlands: Different studies on environmental impacts and emissions data for coal power plant e availablear s . Some published studies e emissionreporth n o f to s radioactive nuclides from nuclear power plants. ECN (Energy Study Center) is engaged in studies concerning risk assessment for different types of nuclear reactors.

Philippines: Partial informatio datd emissionn nan ao environmentad san l impacte sar available (therma nuclead an l r power plants). Dat healtn ao h statistic countre th r sfo y is partly available. Informatio environmentan no l impact minihydrf so o power plants sha been collected.

United Kingdom: Studies comparative produceth n earle o th 0 y7 n di e risk analysis from different energy system availablee sar . Universit Easf yo t Angli engages ai updatinn di g data. A large number of reviews on this topic are available.

Russian Federation: Wor developinn o k g data bank healtn o sd environmenta an h l impacts mainly from the nuclear fuel cycle started after the Chernobyl event. Problems at the country level to organize a common information structure on health and environmental impacts from different energy systems are carefully considered.

Yugoslavia: The information differ among different regions of the country.Data on CO2,SOX,NOX, dust (cas eInter-Agence studth r yfo y projec Risn o t k Management)s a , well as information on underground water radioactivity (contamination) due to the nuclear power plants operatio collectee nZagrear e th r dfo b area.

31 Next page(s) left blank SUMMAR PAPERF YO S The paper "Comments on Energy Risk Analysis". A.F. Fritzsche. identifies and discusses the most significant issues concerning the current status of risk analysis for energy systems. Such issues include: the definition of fuel cycle boundaries; the time dependency of risk estimates given variations over time in the technology and in the state of technological development of any energy system; how variations between countries or group f countrieo s s shoul e takeb d n into account e aggregatioth ; e variouth f o ns dimensions of health risk; and, the treatment of severe accidents. The aim of energy risk analysis is to determine the magnitude of the various categories of risk as objectively as possible.The present statu energf so y risk analysi rathes si r heterogeneous.More datn ao accident frequencies would be welcomed.Most risk of the conventional fuel system have a relatively sound statistical basis. A main problem is the determination of the health risks of atmospheric pollution. Risk analysis for most renewable energy systems necessitates further development. The author points out that the long range aim of energy risk analysis migh obtaio t e b t n risk figures accurate within abou factoa t twof o r . areasw fe a , thiprobabln w I sno goas yha l been reached othern i t bu s, much work remains to be done, while in fields such as the health risks due to noxious emissions, this stag neves ei r likelreachede b o yt .

Comparative risk studies should be considered as an input into the decision making process for energy planning and development. Adequate data should be used; data bases shoul designee db accommodato dt e such data.I papee nth r "Comparative Risks of Nuclear Electricity: A Framework for Decisions". R.S. Rodliffe. the social and environmental factors which influence decision e choicth f n energo eo s y systeme ar s considere structuree b o dt hierarchicaa n di l form.In eacthiy separatele shwa b risn kca y quantifie d thean dn combined appropiatel o react y a finah l decision proposeA . d technique for dealing with these complex decisions is the multiattribute utility analysis. Such a method enabled a clearer distinction to be drawn between the technical uncertaintie e individuath d an s r societao l l judgements which wil e impliciy b l an n i t decisio n theio n r relative merits. This method will facilitat n appropiata e f o e us e quantitative and qualitative information in a data base with technical factors and health d environmentaan l impact f differeno s t complete energy system r electricitfo s y production.

Current methodological issues relevant to the field of comparative risk assessment of different energy systems are discussed in the paper "Comparative Risk Assessment for Various Energy Systems: Issue Reviewn si " S.G. Haddad suggestes i t I authoe . th y db r that the "acceptability" of a risk in general, can only be determined when viewed in the broader comparative contex f variouo t s alternative "tolerablee sb whern e ca th t ei r "fo best alternative.The paper re-appraisacalla r sfo somf o l e methodologica procedurad lan l issue strengtheo st applicatioe nth comparativf no e risk assessmen t decisioe toolth n si n making process for electricity planning. Such issues include a consistent delineation of boundaries of different fuel cycles; widening and completeness of data; methods for the assessment of impacts particularly on the environment and dose-effect relationships for chemical agents and the long-term effect of waste disposal technologies; and methods for the treatment of severe accidents risks. It is also indicated that aggregation of the different time scale e comparativ f th risko s n i , e risk assessment process, shoule b d accompanied by clear indications of these time scales. All components of the integrated risk value should be fully exposed.

33 A different perspective on the need for sound data on health and environmental effects particularly for the coal and nuclear industries in the United Kingdom is highlighte e statementh n i d t "The Nee r Environmentafo d le Uniteth Dat r ir ad Kingdom".G.E. Betteridge. Good data on health and environmental impacts are needed in this cas cosr efo t estimation coaf nuclead so an l r electricity generation optione th n si United Kingdom, particularly the costs of emission controls and environment protection including SO2 and CO2. In this case, the data base could be used for internalization of e cost th f healto s d environmenhan t impacts thus reflectin e truth ge cost f energo s y options under consideration.

papee th "Medican n rI o l Aspect Developmene th f so Environmentan a f o t l Data- Base taking into Account experience in Keeping Population related Cancer Records". W. Mehnert and S. Hähnel are concerned about the medical aspects of the development environmentan oa f l data base taking into account experienc keepinn ei g population related cancer records. Information on the data and associated problems for maintaining such data bases of the National Cancer Registry (NRC) of the former German Democratic Republic are presented. NRC data on cancer occurence in individuals or groups cover entire sth e territor formee th f yo r German Democratic Republic; then yca be combined with data on occupational or environmental exposure available from other institutions. Information on radiation related health risks in the southern districts (e.g. Saxony) are also available. Data were used for health planning,epidemiological research e authoretcTh . s conclude tha collectinn i t g dat differene ath t items should classifies da core item optionad san l items with appropiate priority.

The concept of ecological pay-back time for products and energy savings is introduce papee th n di r "Ecological Pay-Back Tim r Productefo Energd an s y Savings". . HofstetterP t concludeI . s that energ t yalway savinno y s gma lea environmentao dt l protection.Product processed san s adopte environmentar dfo l conservatio alsy onma have environmental impacts which should be taken into account. It is sugested in the paper productioe th tha r fo t materialf no developmend san f activitieo t fiele f th energ do n si y conservation we need better environmental data and methods for comparative risk assessment for different products, and energy fuel cycles.

Complex industrial systems have associated health and environmental risks.In orde evaluato t r e such risks, dat environmental/healtn ao h impacts shoul collectee db d and integrated into the structure of a data base.In the paper "Assessing and Managing Healt d Environmentahan l Risks from Energ Compled yan x Industrial Systeme th n i s Zagreb Arera". N. Malbasa and Z. Kisic investigate the possibility of organizing an information support system to assist studies for a risk management project in Zagreb area initias A . l phas risn ei k managemen necessars i t i t foro yt muniqua e (registrar) cadastr l existinal f o e g hazardous activitie d substancean s e investigateth n i s d area. Additionaly, a cadastre of air pollutants in the Zagreb area will include information on increasee th d concentration sulfuf so r dioxid solid ean d particles emissioe Th . n cadastre wil organizee lb fore data th f m o an d i bank , simpl manipulateo et , evaluating emissions by categories, presenting result tabulan si r form, allowing accesee datb o at modely db s vien i f shorwo t term forecast f emissionso s .

34 The papers "Energy Sources in Israel and Their Impact on the Nearby Population Accordin Subjectivo gt Objectivd ean e Approaches "Residuad "an l Fuel Usag Haifn ei a Region (Israel):Change Emissionn si Theid san r Impac Environmentan o t l Health". A . Tamari. present the result of epidemiologic surveys relevant to ambient SO2 concentrations in particular, from energy generating and other industrial facilities in the Haifa and other regions of Israel. The first paper indicates that the use of coal in the power station refineried san stude th yn si areas hav lesseea r impacenvironmene th n o t t d healtan h than tha f residuao t l oil termn ,i f SOd reporteo s an 2 d chest illnesn i s children. Increased public awarenes concerd san n about pollution states i , influenco dt e the results of surveys. In the second paper, Tamari refers to the practice adopted in Haifa, of switching to a lower S content fuel during adverse weather conditions in order minimizo t impace eth SOf o t 2 emissions conclusioe Th . mads ni e tha higa t h reduction

in overall SO emissions has been achieved during the last 10 years in the Haifa Region 2 as reflected in lower SO2 concentration in the air. The paper reports that there is also some improvemen n pulmonari t y function among .the children althoug e papeth h r suggests that, in view of contrasting trends and results, the effects of pollutants from nearby, chemical manufacturing should als investigatede ob .

papee th n rI "EDB Flexibl:A e Databas Energr efo y Environmental Analysis". . BiewalB . fro Stockholal e mt th de m Environment Institute-Bosto environmentae nth l data base developed by them is described. It currently contains data, gathered from an extensive review of the literature and from other sources of compiled data on emissions. EDB can be used as a stand-alone data base or integrated within an energy planning system e datTh a. bas s designei e a two-dimensiona s a d l matrix: row e sourcar s e categories (energy demand, processing technologies) column effecte th e ssar categories representin aire gth , water, solid waste emission direcd san t health/safety impactn s(i terms of emissions) produced by sources. Each such source-effect combination can be e coefficienstoreth n i d t data e basestructur e Th datth . af o ebas e includee th s bibliographic references and a documentation note for each coefficient cell in the data base.

e framewor th e e needdevelopmen th Th d an r s fo ka dat f o at basf o e environmental impacts on energy projects in the Philippines are introduced in the paper "Development of a Database for Determination of Environmental Impacts of Energy Projects in the Philippines". A.D. Supetran. The author investigates the information requirements for energy projects under the Philippine Environmental Impact Assessment Syste d outlineman e datd informatioth s an a n neede r comparinfo d g environmental impact coae th lr firesgeothermafo d dan l power plants. Data/information e needth r sfo Project Description (costs, required volumes of water, raw material supply), for Site Description geology information (hydrolog wated yan r quality, meteorological data,air quality, terrestrial/aquatic biota) and for Socio-Economie description (land use, population densities, morbidit mortalitd an y y rates, numbe f affecteo r d households). Radioactivity analysis dat documentee coaf ab o o lt fuee ar l variour dfo s coal combustion products.The author concludes that thera nee r bettes i efo d r scheme r impacfo s t prediction of energy development and utilization in the Philippines.

35 e papeTh r "Database Concerning Environmental Impact f Energo s y Generation e Territoroth ne forme th f o yr German Democratic Republic" . . ZuppkU .M d an e Grosse, introduces the features of a database concerning environmental impacts of energy generation systems on the territory of the former GDR. These include:

databan powee th f ko r producing industry (informatio powen no r economy which comprises the entire process of primary energy generation including conversion and use and data on the brown coal mining industry such as agriculture and forestry acreage,area water sfo r management);

data on monitoring environmental impacts such as emissions (dust, SO^ fluorine, chlorine, ammonia); munissions (concentrations of harmful sustances), and waste repositories (dumping sites);

dat environmentan ao l radioactivit radiatiod yan n exposure suc radioactivs ha e contaminatio environmene th f no artificiay b t l radionuclides, radiation exposure populatioe oth f occupationad nan l radiation exposure;

data on health impacts (infant mortality, life expectancy, cancer morbidity, chronic bronchitis, respiratory diseases informatiod an ) n ondisease chemicao t e du sr o l physical impacts,dusts,etc;

data on different types of accidents (at work, traffic accidents, during different activities).

The authors conclude by highlighting the need of developing of environment/health relevant data bank sn internationalla base n o d y uniform methodology. Inter-disciplinary working groups shoul establishee db furtheo dt r examine the structure between energy-environment-health.

A brief outline to the IAEA- Energy and Economic Databank is incorporated in this Technical Document. The databank is a collection of information and data gathered from UN-sources, OECD and other international organizations. Among the information contained in the data base are data on population, energy, electricity (nuclear and non-nuclear), economic f electricitso y generation. Informatio historicas na futurd an l e values on energy refers to production, imports, exports, stocks of all fuel types and total energy consumption value e includedar s . Electri-city sector includes historicad an l forecasted value n installeo s d capacity, production, imports/export f electricityo s . Database contains relevant informatio r countrienfo wels sa regional/worls a l d levels.

e papeTh r "Descriptio f Methodologo n r Calculatinfo y g Historical Energy Consumption and Associated CO2 Emissions", J. Hocking, presents a methodology for calculating worldwide historical energy consumption and associated carbon dioxide emissions develope Internationae th y db l Energy Agency e datTh a. use basee dar n do information provide in annual OECD questionnaires: oil, natural gas, solid fuels and manufactured gases, and electricity. By introducing initial emissions factors and elements of the energy balances the database generates data on CO2 emissions with special emphasi electricite th n so y generation sector OEC4 2 . e EacDth f hMembeo r countries are included in the data base, as well as the total for all OECD countries and for three distinct regions (Pacific, North America, OECD Europe).

36 In the paper "Preliminary Assessment of the Environmental and Health Impacts of Nuclear and Coal Fuel Cycles". Yang Yin et al. report on the environmental impacts healtd an h effect f coanuclead o s an l r fuel cycle Chinan si . Dat f interesao r Chinfo t a presentee ar comparativa n di e manner;epidemiological investigation Shanxn si i province indicate that the incidences of chronic pulmonary diseases and infant congenital malformation were apparently increased over the fall-out areas of coal-fired power station coad an sl mines e authorTh . s outlin framewore eth researca f o k h projecn o t environmental assessment of nuclear energy and other energy systems. The main features of the project are: environmental and health impacts of coal and nuclear fuel cycles, environmental impact assessment of coal transportation, cost accounting of nuclea othed an r r energy sources, health risk assessment.

papee Th r "Human Health Effect f Coao s l Energy Technology" . KrewitW . d an t R. Friedrich, identifies and quantifies in a systematic approach the human health impacts attributabl productioe th o et electricitf no y fro mregioe coaon Germanyf n ni lo . Special attention is given the development of a consistent methodology for the calculation of the human health effects in view of creating a computer aided technique that will facilitate a standardized risk calculation. The paper concludes that for the case in hand, underground coal minin e maith ns gi sourc f occupationaeo l impact t thabu s t public health risk muce sar h more uncertai r pollutioai d nan n pose largese sth t potential risk. Models have to be developed in order to produce more reliable quantification of human health effects caused by air pollution.

The paper "Life-Cycle Analysis for the Assessment of Environmental Impacts". B. Wahlström, presents the structure of a model and a database devoted to the life-cycle analysis of industrial products for the assessment of environmental impacts. The data cover a large variety of industrial sectors; the whole life-cycle of the products has to be considered whe environmentae nth l impact calculatede sar e authoTh . r considers that the data format could be standardized in view of exchanging data between differrent studieenlargo t d qualite studiesse an e th th f yo .

additionas A l tool assistinr sfo g energy planning process . Schörne,G d ran R. Schönstein outline proposals for an Environmental Manual for Power Development, Worla s a d Bank project under preparation.

Next page(s7 3 ) left blank COMMENT ENERGN SO Y RISK ANALYSIS

A.F. FRITZSCHE Swiss Nuclear Safety Committee, Pontresina, Switzerland

Abstract

The paper identifies and discusses the significant issues concerning the current status of risk analysis for energy systems: the definition of fuel cycle boundaries, the time dependenc risf yo k estimates given variations ove rtechnolog e timstate th th n ei en i d yan of technological development of any energy system, the aggregation of the various dimension healtf so treatmene h th risk d an , severf o t energef o accidents m yai rise kTh . analysi determino t s si magnitude eth varioue th f eo s categorie risf so objectivels ka s ya possible. Most risk of the conventional fuel system have a relatively sound statistical basis maiA . n proble determinatioe th ms i healte th f no h risk atmospherif so c pollution. Risk analysi mosr sfo t renewable energy systems necessitates further developmente Th . paper point t tha lone sou th t g energf rango m yeai risk analysis mighobtaio t e b t n risk figures accurate within about a factor of two. In a few areas, this goal has now probably been reached othern i t bu s, much work remain donee b o st , whil fieldn ei se sucth s ha healt hnoxiouo t risk e sdu s emissions stage th , neves ei r likelreachede b o yt .

1 . Introduction yeare Ith n s 1987-8 authoe th 8 r undertoo a criticak l revief o w the world-wide literatur e healtth n heo risks incurree th y b d various options for the production of electrical energy, the aim being to assemble information which would allow inter-system comparisons of the risks of large-scale plants which could be built today under typical Central European conditions.

This work was performed in connection with a series of energy scenarios which were requeste e Swisth sy b d parliamen o illust - trate the possibility, prerequisites and consequences of a with- drawal froproductioe th m f nucleao n r energ Switzerlandn i y , this as background material for a possible future decision in this sense ( 1_) . The main results of this study have been published (2^, 3^) and shall not be addressed further here. This work and the perusae relevanth f o l t literature over many years have given the author the opportunity to gain some insight into the development and the present state of the art of energy risk analysis and into its methodological and practical problems. Some comments on these problems form the theme of this paper.

39 The scope is limited to the health risks of electrical energy production. Clearly ther mane ar ey other negative consequences connected with one or other, or with all options for the productio f energo n y whic y polican h y decisio n thii n s area will have to take into account. Of these, environmental impacts are of particular relevance today A .larg e par f suco t h environmental impacts are, however, a result of the emission of noxious substances in the course of the realization of any energy cycle, and thee thuar ys covere t leasa d t indirectl whan i y t follows.

The aim of energy risk analysis is to determine the magnitude of the various categories of risk as objectively as possible. In the majority of instances, such risk figures are based directly or indirectly on the statistical-actuarial processing of our experience as to the frequency of accidents, injuries, illnesses and fatalitie mane th y n i ssituation s encountere e y workerb dth d san public durin productioe e coursth th g f eo f energyno . Clearly, however, decisions with subjective elements play a role even in judging whether a certain statistic is appropriate to the specific situation of interest, while subjective decisions are unavoidable wheoriginae th n l data, e.g. emission rates, mus convertee b t o t d health detriments or if the frequency of rare events must be synthesized wite hel th hf basipo c statistical informatioe th n o n reliability of components and models of the systems concerned. It is obviously necessary that such decision e rationalth d an s e behind them are fully documented. In much of the past literature in this field, such documentation leave se desired b muc o t h . e fac th vien t I f o wtha t man f theso y e subjective decisione ar s up to a point rather arbitrary, normative international agreement such as that on the recommendations made by the International Commissio Radiologican o n l Protection e (ICRPfielth f o dn ) i ionizing radiation would simplify both energy risk analysis a s such e compariso welth s ,a resulte s la th f f suco nso h endeavours. o takT e some step thin i s s direction woul vere b d y appropriate within the framework of a meeting such as this one.

In what follows mann ,i y diverse areas more questions will cer- tainl e raiseb y d than answergivene b n .sca This seems quitn i e

40 e beginninordeth t meetina a r f e o gb go t liks i e t i this d ,an hoped that at the end of our discussions at least some appropriate answers will emerge.

2. Fuel cycle boundary definition w axiomatino rise y b th k s In i ti assessmenc t field thae riskth t s associated with the production of energy are composed of the sum of the risks resulting from all steps forming a part of the whole energy cycle concerned. This cycle normally begins witproe th h - curemen fuele th ,f to continue s wittransformatios it h n into directly useable form, reaches its climax, so to speak, with the energy conversion process, to end with the final disposal of all wastes produced. In the early days,this was not or could not yet t intbepu o practic s systematicalla e s latera y- re o tha,e s th t sults of many early risk estimates are of little relevance today.

Probabl firse th y t perso attempo nt assessmenn ta healte th f hto risks of the regenerative energy systems, H. Inhaber, in a study (_4) which (rightly) raised violent criticis r quitfo m e other reasons, was also the first to draw attention to the fact that the risks relating to the construction of all plants used in an energy cycle, together witriske th h s incurre productioe th y b d n of all raw materials needed, must properly also be charged to the energy produced. More recent work aims to include also these risk components, but this is not always done with the consistency one should expect.

This line of argument is logical and the definition of the boundary oa fuef l cycl n thio e s basis appears straightforward t thi.Bu s i s hardly the case. If the risks of producing all raw materials are included, should this also includ riske eth mininf so iroe gth n ore whad ?An t abou e riskth t s incurre constructioe th n i de th f no factories to make the steel? All these preliminary steps require energy. Must the risks of producing this energy also be included? And how about the accidents to which the workers are subject on their way to work?

One could go on and on in this way. True, the relative magnitude rise th k f o stemming from such preparatory activities tendo t s

41 become smalle d smallean r e furtheth r e geton r s froe maith mn line of the energy production process. But this is specific to a particular fuel cycle, so that the importance of certain of these elements wil e ratheb l r differen e fossith r lfo t fued an l nuclear cycles with their high flux energy e conversioon e th n no materiae th r fo l han d intensivean d w energlo , y flux solad an r wind cycles on the other. Another case in point is the enrichment of uranium. The energy requirements per unit of separative work are around 20 times higher for enrichment by the diffusion t procesje e anth sd {Trenndüse e centrifug) th tha y nb e process (J5) , so that the proportion of electricity production risks is not necessarily negligible in the first case.

In addition, ther s somi e e discussion among risk analysts whether gross risk r ratheo s t riskrne s shoul determinede b d e latte.Th r take into accoun possiblta e restructurin econome o t th e f o gdu y the additional materials requirements postulated on the basis of an Input-Output-Analysis. Question n als e ca se raiseob th f o d kind, whether the steel used to build a particular plant would t havno e been producee amounty caseth an f n I .materialf i so d s required are small relative to the total production, then no problem should arise. However, the glass requirements in a large solar energy based economy could easily be of the same order of magnitud s presena e t production capacity o thacorrespone s , th t - ding economy would undoubtedly be influenced.

These few indications have shown that one can get into very complex arguments if one attempts to be strictly logical and precise. e interestth n I f simplicitso d practicalitan y woult i y d seeo t m be necessary to agree pragmatically on some artificial boundaries, even if these are, in the final analysis, somewhat arbitrary. e definitioTh f suco n h boundaries woulworth-whila e b d e effort within the framework of an international discussion of a suitable forma r energfo t y risk analysis.

3. Choice and comparability of energy systems

The choice of the type of energy systems to be assessed will usually be determined by the aims of the study. However, to enable a risk assessment to be performed, plants with specific technical characteristics must be postulated, and here a further set of problems can arise. 42 It would generally seem reasonable to define plants on the basis of presen y technologytda . This would see o guarantet m e comparability, for the risks of old plants will always be higher than those of corresponding new ones. But this does not necessarily mean that these comparisons will alse future valie th ob n i d, after plants have undergone further development d suc,an h comparison e oftesar n undertaken witfuture - th un h mindn s ei i t .I likely thaconventionae th t l fossil fuel systems wilmajoe se l r risk reducing development w renewablne e th most ef ,bu o t energy systems are still in an early development stage. Their technology is likely to experience very considerable improvement in the com- g decaden facin i f the-si t d o s an muse o systemo becomd tt e ar se economically competitive. How can the risk reduction potential of such unforeseeable developments be guessed at today? In the light of this argument, present day estimates of the risks of fusion energy, whose practical feasibility even has not yet been demon- strated n hardl,ca y command much confidence.

It is clearly necessary to compare the risks of energy systems on the basis of the same kind and equal quantities of useful energy produced .A compariso productioe th o f t riskno e f electrinso du - e hancaon ld e energwitproductioe th th hn o yo t thos e f edu o n headomestir fo t r industriao c l purpose witr o s h energ r transfo y - portation on the other is out of the question. Thus the risks must be related to a specific quantity of energy in the appropriate end-use form, or to a measure directly related to this: for electricity say 1 gigawatt-year electrical, for heat energy perhaps the heating needs of 1 million houses per year or for transportatio billio1 n n passenger kilometre r milesso .

Focussing now on the apparently simple case of electrical energy, a first problem arises froe facth mt that material d labouan s r requirements, and thus the corresponding risks, as well as the costs, vary inversely with plant size r conventiona.Fo l fossil fued nucleaan l r power production, large centralized planta f o s 5w 1OOM o about W t 1OOOMW capacite rule th t lately .e Bu ar y t ,a aast in European countries, there is much discussion of smaller decentralized power plants e single-purpos,th botr fo h e production of electricity as well as for combined heat and electricity production. Individual photovoltaic solar and wind energy systems,

43 however, have as yet not been and will usually never be built in anything like this size. On the other hand there is, from a technical point of view, no lower limit to the plant size of these systems with respect to their capability to produce and feed electricity into a grid. Extreme differences in plant sizes will certainly distort any comparison of energy production risks.

But that is not all. No energy system can produce electricity continually, without interruption. Such interruptione du e b n sca to purely technical reasons. No machine functions without occasional component failure r otheso r disturbances which a calr fo l cessation of operation. And every machine requires maintenance at regular intervals. Fossil thermal power plants generally have load factors around 60 to 70%, modern nuclear power plants achieve d abovean % .85 Thu e singlo 7t 5son e plant willa n nevei e rb position alon o satisfet uninterrupten a y d energy needa larg n I .e electricity grid such non-availability is easily compensated for, particularl e fac th vien t i y f o thaw te shut-dow th muc f o h n time can be programmed beforehand. Nevertheless, it remains a fact that any single energy production plant has to count on the availabilit a sourc f o yf back-u eo p energy durin e timth g es i tha t i t inoperable.

w renewablThne e e systems whicd an h utilizn su e e energth eth f o y th ea specia wine ar d ln shine su case e s .Th onl y durin daye th g - wine th d d als an s veri - o yl al dependen t a f timi n weathe- eto r conditions, so that in general the load factors of such energy systems are far lower than the figures mentioned above for conventional plants. Because other production units of the same kind are no help in this case, it becomes somewhat more difficult to defin cleaea r basi r comparisosfo n with other systems.

s generallIi t y agreed thae inevitablth t e day-to-night variations mus e compensateb t provisioe th y db f appropriato n e energy storage facilities and that the corresponding risks of construction, operatio d maintenancan n f suceo h facilities mus e chargeb te th o dt energy produced. However, during more extended periods of non- productio o cloudt e yndu skie minimaa r lacso f ko l wind speed, these systems must rel n otheyo r energy supply facilities. Here

44 the discussio e necessarth quits w i n ho e yo t ope back-us na p energy should be produced and to what extent the corresponding risks should be charged to the renewable energy system concerned. The concrete solution chosen can depend strongly on the charac- nationae th tef o r l energy supply system o tha,s migh t i t e tb rather more difficult to solve this problem by means of a normative decision. Problems of the non-equivalence of energy quality e utilizatioalsth on i cro p p u f hydraulio n c energy from storage and from run-of-the-river plants insofariske th f thesso s a r e plant e determinesar d individually.

Another aspect which arises in the determination of the risks of energy production and which has, to the author's knowledge, only been addressed in some of the latest work, is the fact that quite a few of the boundary conditions can vary substantially from country to country, or at least from one part of the world to another. This problem mus e kep b tminn i tparticulan i d n a y b r international organization presenting numerical figures in this field.

As an example it may be mentioned that the risk of fatal accidents workere oth f n coai s l mines average appea th e twicb n o o rt e as high in West German mines than on the average in UK and US mines d thi,an s ris s considerabli k y higher stil Eastern i l n Europe developinn i Chinn ,i d an a g countries. \ A majo re healt th par f h o te populatio riskth o t s n results from the emissio f noxiouo n s substances durin productioe th g f basno e material operatioe th powee r th so rf no stations e exten.Th f o t the social health detrimen directls i t y proportionae th o t l specific emission rat f suceo e h th e sizsubstance th f o e o t d san population affected, populatioe i.eth o .t n density aroune th d plant. The regulation of these emission rates, however, varies from countr populatioe countryo t yth o d s ,a n densitiese .Th risks resulting froe transportatioth m fuelf o n , materiald san wastes can vary considerably depending on the mode and distance of transport, both of which are determined by country specific conditions. And as a final example: the specific power production of a solar plant situated in Arizona is of little relevance to solar electricity production in most parts of Europe.

45 Many e otherisksth rn ,o hand , vary little regionally, though even general accident statistics often show non-negligible variations, presumably at least partly due to differences in category definitions. In the strict sense, then, there are no universally valid risk figures .A ris k analyst will hav o becomt e e clean i r his mind in which geographical frame his assessments are to be performed, taking into account, among other things, that perhaps l stage al a fue t f lo sd no cyclan e realize b e n eon ca wiln i dr o l the same country. For example, Switzerland and France import all or much of their coal from very diverse parts of the world.

An organization attempting the presentation of more generally applicable risk o solutionse choicfiguretw th f s o e ha s e rang.Th e of risks quote e handon d e ,can th includ ,n o e fulth el scopf o e individual risk values in each specific category, from the lowest e highestth o t values found. This wil mann i l y cases leao t d results which, becaus f theio e r imprecision f littlo e e b us e n ca , for policy decisions. On the other hand, risks can be determined for clearly specified regions, which have some similarity in the relevant boundary conditions, such as North America or Western Europee fulth l d rang,an f risko e s then quote r thesfo d e regions. In the past, a major part of the energy risk analyses were per- mor, US r les o ee agreemenn formei sth n i d t wite seconth h d approach, but the risk figures obtained were not always relevant for, say, Western European conditions. Reviews presente y internatiob d - nal organizations hav mann i e y cases been quit hotchpotca e f o h figures fromose th mt diverse sources.

methode Ath s d practican s f energeo y risk assessment have impro- vedbecomet i , s increasingly necessar wels a s possibla - ly o t - e account for the more important systematic regional differences and thu o obtait s n more precis d correspondinglan e y more useful risk figures, at least for the more conventional energy systems.

. 4 Health detriment possibilite th d san f theio y r aggregation

e limiton Eve f a i rissn k analysi o healtt s h risks whol,a e list of risk categories must, in principle, be considered. A wide rang f injurieeo o accidentt e sdu d illnessean s e n occuth ca sn i r mane coursth y f eo processe s involve energn i d y production- ,be

46 ginning with thostriflina f eo g naturo eventt p u es leadino t g invalidity or premature death. It is obviously difficult to define unequivocal limit r classefo s f injurieso d illnessean s f so different seriousness and even to define a cut-off below which such health effects shall not be considered, and which will be interpreted in the same way by everyone concerned. Thus, statistics of accidents and of non-lethal injuries and illnesses are notoriously incomplet unreliabld an e e and, where available, hardly comparable from case to case. In the author's opinion they are of r rislittlfo k e comparisonus e r thisfo s reasone earlth yn I . day f riso s k analysis, frequencfiguree th r fo sf injurie o y s were t infrequentlno y derived from fatuity statistic applie th y -sb catio mora r lesf o eo n s arbitrarily determined facto obviousl- r y a futile undertaking.

Thus, health risk analysts are usually limited to the determination of the risk of premature death. In the sense that death is unambiguous, fatality statistics are likely to be complete and thus reliable, perhaps wit certaia h n provise casth f e o n i o death through illness due to possible uncertainty in the diagnosis. On the one hand this is a considerable restriction within the wide spectrum of health detriments, but nevertheless a restriction to that form of harm which is generally judged to be the most n icebergseriousa y casef o an e frequenc p n ,,th .I ti like th e y or risk of death is usually quite a good indicator of where the major health risks occur.

In addition to the possibility of immediate death, either due to an accident or an acute disease, ionizing radiation and chemical pollutant n havca se effects leadin delayeo t g d death f particu.O - lar significance is the possible occurrence of cancer, either after a latency period of some decades following an acute exposure or after an extended period of chronic exposure. The assessment f suco h delayed risks form importann a s t par f energo t y risk analysis.

The agents mentioned, radiation and pollution, finally can also lea o teratogenit d c and/or mutageni r genetio c c damage, tha, is t to impaired development of an unborn child or to damage to the

47 decendants of the exposed person. Considerable information is available on both of these potential consequences in the case of exposure to ionizing radiation, our knowledge in the case of the many chemical pollutants of relevance in energy production, however extremels ,i y limite r practicallo d y nonexistent r thi.Fo s reason w attemptfe , s have been mad o estimatt e e correspondinth e g risks.

The risk analyst must, of course, determine the magnitude of these very different potential health detriments one by one. He is now confronted with the problem as to what extent should he keep these risk categories separate from each finae otheth ln i r presentatio s resulthi f d whao n san t possibilitie r theifo s r aggregation into combined categorie n afforca employo e t dh s e .H will hav o explait e n thes e firs th results n ti plac t o ,no t e specialists like himself t rathe,bu o laymet r e npoliti th suc s a h - cians and policy makers will usually be. Here any condensation of the quite intricate and extensive information would be welcome. On the other hand, however, it is well known that the layman per- ceive varioue th s s categorie risf so k very differently (6^) Deat. h as a result of an accident and a late death are felt to be of quite different quality n acciden.A t wor a ts judge i k s somea d - thing wholly different from an accident to an uninvolved bystander.

In the author's experience, aggregation of such different categories of harm jeopardizes any meaningful communication with the layman and should therefore not be undertaken. Nevertheless, acute fatalities among workers, whether these occur in a coal mine, during transport operation durinr so operatioe th g a powe f no r e samplan th n fairle d ca tcategory an e referre b ye on o t ,d just as late cancer fatalities amon e generath g l publi n forca cm another category of harm, whether these are predicted as the consequence of radiation exposur f exposuro r o e o chemicat e l pollutionn I . this line of thought, then, the following categories should be distinguished:

Person riskt sa : occupational public Cause of harm: accident disease (occurrence: immediate delayed)

which in combination lead to four separate categories of harm.

48 earln I y risk assessment aggregatioe th s f consequenceno o st health was demonstrably excessive. Immediate and delayed fatalities were frequently simply s wersummea / e up dfatalitie s among occupational personne publice th d .lan Mor mord viee ean s th e wha come to prevail that this cannot be defended and that it is, in the final analysis, counterproductive .A compariso healte th f hno risk f energso y systems shoul performee b d d categor y categoryyb , a finaleavin o t l t i overalg l judgemen o brint g these individual consequences together. It should here be stressed that this overall judgemeno meann y b spurela s i t y professional mattet bu r rather a uniquely sociopolitical one, implying as it does a whole series of value judgements which must weight the various categorie f harso e agains on m othere th t .

It is to be deplored that even in some recent work (_5) this prin- t acceptedye t ciplno s ,i e acut d latan ee fatalities being treated as one single category. Another habit, frequently practiced eve o aggregatnt s todayi , US e, e mainlinjurieth n i d yfatali an s - ties int measurea o : "Worker Days Lost" (WDL )r "Mao n Days Lost" (MDL), wher e fataliton e equates i y d usuall 600o t y 0 days lost. The author feels this should be avoided, not only for the reasons of principle just discussed, but also in view of the general untrustworthiness of injury statistics.

A categor f risko y s which shoul clearle b d t aparse y t from those risks e determineb whic n basie ca h th f actuaria o sn o d l evidence e riskarth edelayef so d harm, particularly cancer a resul s ,a t of radiation or chemical pollution. The fatalities determined in the former group are deaths which have actually occurred and which will a statistica n ,i l sense, occur e futuragaith n ni e wite th h frequency ascertained.

e seconTh d group comprises fatalities whic he calculate b hav o t e d basie a theoreticao th nf o s l dose-effect relationship. Suca h relationship extrapolate extene sth harf o t m whic s beehha n determined at high doses down to doses frequently many orders of magnitude lower t possiblno t suc.doses w A i lo demonstrato ht t e i s e any harm experimentally or epidemiologically, because the harm in question - cancer - is unspecific, that is, can have many causes,

49 most of them unknown, which cannot be separated from the agent considered. In fact, then, in this case the risk of harm is based hypothesisa juse n b o s likela tn ca yt i ;tha t o harthern ms i e whatsoever t leas,a vert dosesw a t lo y .

e cas Ith f nionizino e g radiation, ther world-wids i e e agreement on the assumption of a linear dose-effect relationship, without a threshold, down to zero dose. This postulates that there is no harm only at zero dose. It is agreed that in most cases this hypothesi conservatives i s , i.e. tha overestimatet i t harme th s .

Our knowledge of the harmful effects of the many kinds of chemical pollutants emittee framewor th varioue n th i d f o ks energy cycles is far more rudimentary than of those due to radiation. In practice, the problem is simplified by taking S0_, sulphates or either f theso e together with particulate n indicatoa e comples a sth f o rx mixtur noxiouf o e s substances emitted. Clearly, vera thi s yi s rough approximation whee consideron n variew sho compositioe th d n of the emissions can be. Epidemiological studies to determine dose-effect relationship e evear s n more difficult here than i n the case of radiation. In the past 20 years at least 30 reviews of the mass of literature in this field have appeared, with quite diverse recommendations.

Though the existence of a dose threshold below which no harm occurs is very occasionally postulated, here too a no-threshold dose-effect relation is almost universally assumed. This again is a conservative assumption, but one which seems all the more justi- fied by the fact that there is, in contrast to radiation, no natural background dose level for most of these pollutants, but at the same time already a by no means negligible non-natural pre-exposur e populationth f o ey cas an appeart i en .I s judicious postulato t e essentially similar hypothese basia r coms a s-fo s parisons of the risks of nuclear and fossil fuel energy systems. One wonders whether there is room here for a discussion among specialists wite tentativ th hf agreein o m dose-effeca ai en go t relationshi workina s a p g hypothesi r healtfo s h risk comparisons, jus s thera t presentls i e y universaa f o l e agreemenus e th n o t linear, no-threshold hypothesi e effectth r f radiationo sfo ?

50 Ther mane ear y other questions whic determinatioe th h f healtno h risks can raise. Only a selection of these can be no more than mentioned here.

With respect to the dose-effect hypothesis for radiation just cited, it must be recalled that the risk coefficient, i.e. the e lineaslopth f ro e dose-effect curve s presentli , y under review since the Hiroshima-Nagasaki data have been reevaluated on the basirevisioa dosimetre f so th f o n y used hitherto s expeci t I .- ted thae besth tt estimat rise th k f o ecoefficien e increab y tma - e appropriatth sey b d e international organization a facto y sb r of between 3 and 5 in the near future. This will increase the assessed hypothetical radiation risks proportionally.

The radiation risks to the public are themselves the result of calculation propagatioe th f e radioactivso th f o n e substances which are emitted from the plant being analysed and their distribution amon populatioe th g vicinitye th n i n e dose,th s which thus arise being transformed to harm by the application of the dose- effect relation. Because radioactive substances have very different half-lives, the question arises as to the extent of the tem- pora e spacia th wels a l s a ll integratio f theio n r harmful effects.

On the basis of a no-threshold dose-effect relation, the integrated harm can become quite considerable even if doses are extremely lowf thii , s integratio performes i n d ove vera r y extended region r oveo vera r y long time perio casa multiplyinf - do e vera g y small value wit vera h y large one. Thue consequenceth s e th f so emission f long-liveso d carbon-14 fronucleae th m r fuel cycle have been calculate globaa perioa n o o dt f lo dp u basi d an s 10*000 years {UNSCEAR, 1982). In a special context this may perhaps have some meaning, but for purposes of comparison of nuclear with other risks it would be quite unreasonable. Rather, one would nee givo minimiconcepe e t dd th ea f to s dos ) som* e e consideration normative ,th tha, is t e definitio vera w dose f lo yno ,

minimie "d n curâ) * no s t lex". Legal principle doew t la no s e :Th bother with trifles.

51 below which effects are taken to be so small, that they can be disregarded. This implies the integration of harm over a limited distance and a limited time period, both of which would need to be fixe y generab d l professional consensus.

Another point at least worth mentioning is the fact that premature death from some causes can systematically occur only relatively lat n lifei e , thus being responsibl e averagth r n considero efo e - ably less shortening of life than that due, say, to a transport accident, which can happen to a person of almost any age. This again is a difference in the quality of the corresponding risks, which has not, as yet, been specifically considered in risk comparisons .

A final point concern e significancsth f lato e e health effects quite generally, best illustrate e incidencth y b d f pneumconioo e - sis (black lung disease) under miners. This diseas n leao ca et d death through progressive massive fibrosis (PMF), but only after something like 30 years. The present day statistical incidence of such fatalities is thus a picture of the conditions in the mines durin r moro e las th 0 eg3 t years. Whic F hfatali PM ris f o k - tie sw tak shoulno e e inton d o account e incidencth ; e rate presently effective or the rate expected under the improved conditions existing in today's mines?

5. The problem of severe accidents

A category of risks with very special characteristics results froe possibilitth m vera f yo y severe, though very unlikely acciden a technica f o t l system e verw probabilit.Th lo y f suco y h an event means that there has been little experience of their occurrence, particularly during the operation of new technological systems. Nuclear power plants are a case in point. Here the proble f quantifyino m e risk th gs bee sha n e introsolveth y -b d ductio d systematian n c developmen f probabilistio t c risr o k safety analysis (PRA, PSA). Though e finaPRAth ln , i analysis, also draws heavil n statisticallo y y assembled experiencf o e failure rates of system components and operating personnel, the results obtained have a character and significance different from thos f purelo e y statistically determined risks, which must no t be forgotten when comparing risk figures.

52 The most striking aspect of severe accidents, which became mani- fest most noticeably after the publication of the first results of a PRA by Prof. N. Rasmussen in the USA, is the most fundamental difficulty which the average citizen seems to have in the percep- w probabilitlo a tio f o n y event. Frobasicalle th m y objective poinrise th f vieko t f analysto w riske ,th s incurre a sever y b d e accident n everarei s ya , other situation ,a functio e th f o n magnitude of the possible harm and of the probability that this harm will materialize. Here e correspondin, th bot hare d th han m g probabilit n varyca y , usually ove wida r e range. Purely froa m mathematical determinn poinca f vieo e t on wn averag a e e riske th , so-called expected value. This figure is,' even from an objective poin f viewto t quit,no e satisfactory, becaus t treati e n evena s t r yeawitpe r0 a probabilith causin10 n i 1 g f 10*00o y 0 simultaneous death s equivalensa n evena o t causin death0 10 g s regularly ever a timey t yeara . e Clearly,on e consequenceth , r societfo s y of 10'000 deaths all at one time are in many ways more difficult o overcomt e than e samthosth e f eo numbe f deatho r s occurrine on g by one.

What, however, sets severe accidents completely apart frol al m other categorie e subjectiv th f ris so s i k e perceptio f sucno n a h event by the man on the street ( 6_). The harm caused by such an accident, usually graphically described by the media, can be impressive and fear provoking, and dominates his valuation of the event. The second element of the risk, the low probability, he demonstrably misperceives, usually by many orders of magnitude. The great popularity of lotteries, where the chance of winning maie th milliona n n prizi a orde e 1 oftes s th ei ,i f ro n ni typical expression of this.

This widespread misperception of low probability severe accidents e reasoith s y thinwh s typ f riseo k must als deale ob t wita s a h separate category, here also further differentiated according to the four categories listed on page 10, These cannot be compared directly with the other risk categories discussed previously. A final estimation again implies value judgements, which must be made quite independentl objective th f o y e risk determinationr .Fo this reason, all attempts, repeated again and again, to account e subjectivth r fo e overemphasi hare y defininth b m f o s g somw ne e

53 sor f "severo t e accident risk probabilits a " y time n overa s - linear function, often an exponential function of harm, are totally misguided. The subjective and frequently highly emotional valuation of certain risks must be considered within the framework of a socioeconomic process and must be kept quite apart from the objective determination of the numerical value of risks.

In view of the enormous attention paid in the public to the possibility of a severe accident in a nuclear power plant, at least since the events at Three Mile Island and in Chernobyl occurred, quits ii t e surprising thae occurrencth t f severo e e accidentn i s the frame of other energy cycles are hardly taken note of. Of course, if at all, such events are usually reported by the media i nw sentences onlfe a y mattea s A .f fact o r , such o events e sar frequent that quite meaningful statistics exist on a world-wide basis. Durin e las th gyear0 2 t s oveworker0 20 r s lost their lives in coal mine disaster e averagth n o se every year e averag.Th e l energoi e losy th f lifo capsizin o scyclt n i ee edu l platoi g - forms, fires and explosions in refineries, tank farms and during transport was over 100 per year, in the natural gas cycle almost as many. Hydrauli disasterm da c s accounte n averaga r fo f ovedo e r 200 death r yearpe s .

s incomprehensiblIi t e riske authoth th f severo sy o et rwh e accidents in the non-nuclear energy fields have to this day not been analysed e statistica.Th l material needed, namel e corth y - responding acciden d energan t y production statistics availas i , - ble. This is by far the most serious omission in 20 years of energy risk analysis, and it should be corrected as soon as possible.

6. Concluding remarks

The present status of energy risk analysis is rather heterogeneous, In all areas, more detailed statistical data on labour requirements and accident frequencies would be welcome. But global accident statistic t alwayno e sar s sufficien n somi t e trades, where risks in different fields of work can differ considerably. Thugenerae th s l statistic buildine th r sfo g trad e inapproear -

54 priate for the determination of the occupational risks during the construction of large hydraulic dams, where working conditions are considerably more dangerous than on average building sites, particularly in alpine regions.

Most conventiona e riskth f so l fuel systems have quit gooea d statistical basis. The main problem here concerns the determina- healte th tio f ho n risk f atmospheriso c pollution, whics ha h already been mentioned. Risk figure r nucleafo s r energy production on the basis of the light water reactor cycle are rather well documented. Other nuclear cycles, suc s thosa h ehige baseth h n o d temperature reactor or the fast reactor, call for considerably more work, while it is probably premature to present risk estimate r fusiosfo n energy.

f riso kt Th ar analysie e statth r mosf eo fo s t renewable energy systems still leaves much to be desired. Many of the problems here have also been discussed. Risk analyses should be performed han hann i d d wit furthee th h r developmen f theso t e energy systems, but it will be some time before well-founded risk figures will be available permitting final conclusions relative to the other energy systems. Figures for the risks of hydraulic energy productioe stilar n l rather unsatisfactory e feelon st ,bu tha t much basic data mus available tb e whic waitins i h r appropriatfo g e processing.

e long-rangTh energf o m eai y risk analyses obtaio might e b tn risk figures accurate within abou factota w fe twof a ro n I . areas this goal has now probably been reached, but in others much work remain donee b o ,t s whil fieldn i e healtse th suc s ha risks dunoxiouo t e s emissions this stag neves i e r likelreachede b o t y .

e scatteOth f r whic e findhon s betwee e figureth n differenf so t risk assessments muse e fac ,awaron e th b tt f o thae t probable th y large countlese th r o t fractio e s du possibls i n e real differences in the specific details of the energy cycles studied, while only actuao t e ldu par uncertaints i t f individuayo l figures s every.A - one active in this field knows, however, risks which are to be compared very often differ by far more than factors of two, in

55 many cases differences will be one or more orders of magnitude. In such a situation quite unequivocal conclusions can be drawn even froe resultth m f man o sf today' o y s risk analyses.

REFERENCES j_ Expertengruppe Energieszenarien (EGES): Energieszenarien; Mög- lichkeiten, Voraussetzunge d Konsequenzeun n n eines Ausstieg r Kernenergier Schweide sde s au z , Hauptbericht, Februar 1988; Zusammenfassung, Februar 1988, Eidg. Drucksachen Materialzentraled un - , CH-3003 Bern 2^ A.F. Fritzsche: Gesundheitsrisike n Energieversorgungsnvo - systemenEnergieu z r Kohl de s ebi n r Zukunf ;nVo de t Rohstoffen unde d r Entsorgungzu s nbi , Verlag TUeV Rheinland, Köln, 1988 _3 A.F. Fritzsche e Healt:Th h Risk f Energo s y Production, Risk Analysis, Vol.9, No.4, December 1989, 565-577 4_ H. Inhaber: Risk of Energy Production, Report AECB-1119, Atomic Energy Control Boar f Canadao d , Ottawa, 1978 _5 U. Kallenbach, E. Thöne (Hrsg): Gesundheitsrisiken der Strom- erzeugung; Daten, Fakten und Bewertungen; Vergleich s energietechnischeau r Sicht, Verlag TUeV Rheinland, Köln, 1989 6_ A.F. Fritzsche e siche:Wi r Risikobeurteilun? lebe r wi n d un g -bewältigun unseren i g r Gesellschaft, Verlag TUeV Rheinland, Köln, 1986

56 COMPARATIVE RISKS OF NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY: A FRAMEWORK FOR DECISIONS

R.S. RODLIFFE Health and Safety Department, Nuclear Electric pic, Bristol, United Kingdom

Abstract

Comparative risk studies should be considered as an input into the decision making process for energy planning and development. Adequate data should be used; databases shoul e designedb accommodato dt e such datae socia environmentad Th . an l l factors which influence decisions on the choice of energy systems are considered to be structured a hierarchica n i l form eacy thin I e separatelhwa .sb risn ca k y quantifie thed an dn combined appropriately to reach a final decision. A proposed technique for dealing with these complex decision multiattribute th s si e utility analysis. This method will facilitate an appropriate use of quantitative and qualitative information in a data base with technical factor d healt an sd environmenta han l impact f differeno s t complete energy systems for electricity generation.

1. INTRODUCTION An electricity utility must decide whether an investment in nuclear energy would be profitable in the short to medium term relative to other potential investment opportunities. A country must decide how best to use its indigenous fuel supplies and to protect itself against the undue external political and economic pressure e sassociateb thay ma t d with fuel imports. However, society is beginning to recognise that many of our energy problems are of global significance and that environmental problems such as the greenhouse effect and ozone depletion affect s allu . Decisions on energy involve complex moral issues. All forms of energy supply have some effect on our environment and, either directl r indirectlyo y , provide benefit d posan se risko t s individuals and society. Different sources of energy are difficul o comparet t r exampleFo . w doee comparho ,on s e th e remote probability of a serious accident at a nuclear power station with the very uncertain consequences of CO emissions from fossil fuel burning? The consequences of a nuclear accident cae quitb n e accurately predicte t theibu d r likelihoo s veri d y remote. The input of CO from fossil fuel burning is reasonably e consequencecertaith t bu n s very uncertain, give r presenou n t understandings of global climate and the greenhouse effect. The people most affecte a nuclea y b d r accidene e th thos ar tn i e vicinity of the power station. The people most affected by C0_ emissions may be on the other side of the world? they may be the

57 least able to protect themselves against rising sea levels, floods and catastrophic effects on weather and agriculture. How othersd an n 'ow valude o w live r eou sucn i s h circumstances? The social and environmental risks which influence decisions on the choice of energy systems can be structured in a hierarchical fashion which enables eac he separatel b ris o t k y quantified an d then i. jmbined appropriately to reach a final decision. Multi-attribute utility analysis is a valuable aid to decision making in such circumstances where many, and possibly diverse, criteri ae considered b nee o t d .e advantageth Som f o ed an s limitât! >.s of this approach are illustrated for the health impacts <. nuclear and coal-fired power stations.

2. MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITY ANALYSIS Multi-attribute utility analysis is a technique which allows a consideration of factors other than straightforward costs and benefits value n i monetard y termst s purposno It . s i e necessaril o t maky e better decisions, althoug e morth he structured environment tha t providei t s should assis n thii t s respect. Rather, it is to provide a very clear statement of the wawhicn i y decisioha bees nha n reache makiny b d e underlyinth g g premises and values more explicit and encouraging awareness of the sensitivity to the weighting placed on each factor. The principal benefi s thui t s communicatin a decisiog o otherst n , since the agenda is set, relative values are explicit and the implications of another point of view become transparent. The technique is more fully described elsewhere (e.g. Watson and Buede, 1987) t I require. s e thadifferenth t t factorr o s attributes which have a bearing on the decision should be identified and related within a structure which enables each to be valued e e monetaryvalueb Th y . ma sa .f o Howevere us e th , utility function may be more appropriate in some circumstances. A utility function describe e equivalenceth s r indifferenceo , , betwee e valueth n o differentw s r usefo dt attributesn I . general, the attributes will be valued in different units and the utility function will be non-linear. Definition of the function is not trivial. It requires the decision-maker to think very carefully about each attribut s relativit d an ee valuatioa n i n process which is sometimes called elicitation. This note presents preliminary work to investigate the potential oa decisiof n aiding software package, HIVIEW, developee th y b d London Schoo f Economicso l . HIVIEW assist e structurinth s f o g attributes int a hierarchyo t enableI . e valuatioth s f eaco n h attribute for every option, and guides the relative weighting of branches of attributes within the hierarchy. The programme presents options ranke n i orde df o preferencr e e witth h possibilit f displayino y g sensitivit o hypotheticat y l changen i s the valuation of attributes and their weighting. Suppose that we wished to compare the relative merits of electricity generation from nuclear power and fossil-fuel burning. Clearl e nee w yo conside t d e wholth r e spectruf o m activities from mining to power generation and finally to waste disposal e impacTh .f eac o tf theso h e n societth o e d an y

58 environment mus e characterisedb t e musW .t consider normal operatio d potentiaan n r catastrophefo l e musW . t consider both public and occupational exposure. It might be argued that we should also distinguish betwee na fata l acciden d exposurtan o t e radiation leading to the chance of fatal cancer sometime later in life. Already we have defined 24 factors for consideration and we have so far only considered effects on human health. There are obviously several ways in which these factors can be structured n theoryI . e samth , e decision shoul e reacheb d d regardless of the structure. But in practice, deciding on the weightings for each factor can be made easier by careful choice of a sensible structure. For present purposes, we can simplify e decisioth n e interestesincar e ew broaa n i dd understandinf o g e principleth s rather than reachin a gdetaile d decisione W . will, therefore, restrict our attention to power generation. In particular, we will consider a simple comparison of nuclear versus fossil, focusing on the issues that arise in the valuation of human life. In this case I have categorised the inputs to the final decision under the broad headings of normal operation and potential for catastrophe. The latter is defined as a substantial disaster attributable to the plant under consideration which leads to multiple fatalities amongs e publictth . This structure maket i s eas o accommodatt y t onle uncertaintno eth y e chanca th f n o i ey catastroph t alsdisparite ebu o th y between publicly perceived an d actual risks. In each case there may be effects on the health of members of the public and station staff. Effects on health may range from menta physicao t l l injury, from illness suc s asthma h a o fatalityt . Her wilI e l consider only fatality, which wile b l classified as either prompt or delayed. For example, an industrial accident resulting immediatel deatn i y h wil e termelb d prompt a ;deat h from fatal cancer occurring many years, perhaps , afteso r o exposur0 1 o radiatiot e n wil e termeb l d delayed. e resultinTh g decisio. n1 treg shows Fi i e n i n What values shal e e placeighw l th n eac o ef to h fundamental attributes influencing this comparison? This will depend to some extent on the nature of the comparison which is being made. Let us assume that we are considering the relative merits of two 1000 MWe stations nucleae othee ,on th rd ran fossil-fired .

3. OCCUPATIONA PUBLID LAN C FATALITIES 1 Norma3. l Operation Firstly, consider occupational fatality in normal operation. We n characterisca e both type f fatalito s e numbern termth i y f o s s that might occur. They will, of course, inevitably be very small e considew eve f i ne statioth r n lifetime rather thae annuath n l rate. The fatal accident rate at UK nuclear power stations operated by CEGB was about 30 per million per year over the 20 year period from 1968/ 1987/o 9t 8 (Hoaksey, 1990) thin O .s basis one might expect only one fatal accident during the lifetime of a power station e NucleaTh . r Electric design targe r maximufo t m annual individual dose on the Sizewell B PWR is 10 mSv, which

59 FIG . Hierarch1 . f attributeyo r humafo s n health.

would be expected to result in an average annual individual dose of 5 mSv and an annual station dose of 2.4 man-Sv. In practice, s expecteii t d tha wile tw betteo d l r than this. However, using the latest ICRP risk estimates, about four additional fatal cancers migh e anticipateb t d amongse e th workforc th to t e du e collective dose accumulated ovestatioe rth n lifetime. In order to produce an overall value for occupational fatalities, we need to decide on the relative weightings of the prompt and delayed components. There are two principal options. We could weight them equally, arguing that it is irrelevant whether death occurs promptly or is delayed. However, a fatal cancer resulting from radiation exposur s unlikeli ee manifes b o t y t until many years after that exposure. Loss of life expectancy might be a better inde f har o xn thes i m e circumstances (e.g. ICRP, 1977; 1985) . Hoaksey (1990 s applieha ) d this approac o judgementt h e th n o s tolerabilit f riso y k from occupational radiation exposuree Th . mean age at death for an occupational accident in a mixed working populatio e individuaTh s abou i n. 40 t l los f lifo s e expectancy correspond meae th nabous o i st lif 5 d 3 te an expectanc0 4 e ag t a y years. Each prompt fatality should therefor e weighteb e 5 3 y b d to give the population loss of life expectancy in units of years. The increased risk for most fatal cancers resulting from radiation exposure may be described in terms of a relative risk model. The natural incidence of a particular cancer increases with agee increaseth ; o dradiatiot rise du k n exposurs i e described by a constant factor over and above this natural

60 incidence. The individual loss of life expectancy for a fatal cancer may be estimated at about 12 years. Thus each delayed fatality due to cancer should be weighted by 12 to give a population loss of life expectancy of 48 years. Table 1 sets out the results of these calculations. It is important to put these numbers in the correct perspective. The four fatal cancer e verw comparear fe ys R attributePW de th o t d o thas tr o migh 0 e expecte20 b t e witworkforc e th th hn i d e from natural causes. They will be statistically undetectable. It is only becaus have w eo muc s e h detailed informatio e effectth n no s of radiatio t higa n h dose d dosan s e rate n sattemp ca tha e w tt such predictions. It is likely that workers in a coal-fired power statio e exposear n o carcinogent d s associated with coal and/or coal burnin thad an gsmala t l numbe f fataro l cancers will be cause e knoa resultw s wt a d Bu insufficien. o makt e evea n tentative prediction of the numbers involved. Of course the picture is somewhat different if accidents to workers and the publi n miningi c , fuel transpor d wastan t e disposa e takear l n into account. The scales of these activities for fossil fuels are much greater than for nuclear and therefore result in larger number fatalitiesf so .

Tabl . 1 eOccupationa l fatalit yeay0 4 ove re lifetimeth r f o s 1000 KWe coal-fired and nuclear power stations

Option Pronpt Delayed Itotal

) Fatalitie(y Fatalitie ) * (y Fatalitie) HE (y £ E sII sLL s

5 >3 1 > ? ? 5 3 Coal-fire 1 d

FWR 1 35 4 48 5 83

* LLE = Loss of Life Expectancy

Now let us consider public fatality in normal operation. The principal effects for both coal and nuclear arise from discharges of effluent; prompt deaths are zero. Once again our knowledge of radiation effects is sufficient to make a reliable estimate of the numbers of fatal cancers which are likely to result from operation of the nuclear power station. The public collective dose whic t Sizewela h R s estimatei wilPW B le l th ariso t dr fo e be about 0.13 man-Sv per year, which corresponds to less than one fatal cancer durin e statioth g n lifetime e actuaTh . l valuy ma e be treated as an expectation for the purposes of evaluating loss of life expectancy and corresponds to three years. The health effect f fluo s e gase d particulatan s e emissions from coal-fired power station e morar se difficul o evaluatet t A workin. g group

61 of the World Health Organisation (1986) concluded that available data indicated a minimal risk to the health of individuals associated with inhalation of sulphuric acid aerosols at ambient concentrations althoug n sensitivi h e group g asthmatics(e s , childre d individualan n s wit a hypersensitivh e respiratory system) the possibility of diverse pulmonary effects from short-term exposur o sulphuriet m ccannog m aerosol 1 e tb 0. t sa excluded. They also considered indirect health effect noted san d that acid raiy havma ne deleterious affect n drinkino s g water quality, intake of trace elements and leaching of toxic materials from watershed d sedimentsan s e CommissioTh . e n Energth o n d an y Environment (1981 s concerne)wa d abou particulate th t e component e emissionsoth f , specifically: polycyclic aromatic hydro-carbons in general and benzo-a-pyrene in particular; trace elements such as arsenic d radioactivan ; e elements e CommissioTh . n concluded that there remains uncertainty abou e carcinogenith t c effectf o s such materials now released into the atmosphere and it would be unwise to allow such discharges to increase unnecessarily. t know manno ho wo yWd e cancers migh e attributablb t e th o t e carcinogenic effects of such air pollution in the UK. However, Fremlin (1989 s estimateha ) d that there s mana couls a ye b d 10,000 cancers per year. He derived this value by comparing mortalit n urba i yd rura an n l area d makinan s a conservativg e allowance for possible differences in smoking habits. This approac difficuls i h difficuls i o justift t i d o apportiot an y n these deaths between electricity generation and other sources suc transports a h . Total emission comparable sar e formeth t rebu are released from tall stacks .e assume on Eve f i ns % 1 onl a y contribution from fossil power stations, it can be estimated that a 1000 MWe unit will have caused about 100 fatal cancers during its lifetime e los Th f lifo .s e expectanc n thii y t s no cas s i e e purposeth r fo f illustratiocleao s t bu r s assumu t le en that i t is the same as for a fatal cancer caused by radiation exposure. These estimates for public fatality are presented in table 2.

Table 2. Public fatality over the 40 year lifetiaes of 1000 HWe coal-fire d nucleaan d r power stations

Option Protpt Delayed Itotal

Fatalities LL£ (y) fatalities LLE (y) Fatalities II£ (y)

0 100Coal-fire 0 ? 1200d ? 100? 1200?

0 0 <1 3 <1 3

3.2 Potential for Catastrophe A full consideratio f nucleao n r accident beyons i s e scopth df o e this paper. For the present purposes of illustration, it is sufficient to consider the frequency and consequences of a

62 hypothetical big accident like that which happened at Chernobyl. The comparison will be made with postulated consequences of the global climatic change due to fossil fuel burning. These are episodic in nature and, therefore, most appropriately considered alongside nuclear accidents. e accidenTh worse th Chernobyt ta tt thano s t lwa coul d happet nbu it was a good indication of what a big nuclear accident is like in practice. About 30 people died, mainly as a result of fighting the fires which raged during the first few hours after the accident. Another 100,000 people were evacuated from an area of 30 kilometres or so around the plant. The radioactivity which was released was detectable around the world. However, the radiation doses for all except those closest to the plant will have been small compared with the natural background from cosmic e primaevath d rayan sl radioactivity which pervader ou s environment e effecTh . t ovee nex0 th yearr5 t s throughout European Russia wil e aboub l extrI t a cance r eacfo rh 1000 which occur naturally. Further afield the effect will be even less. To any individual the increased chance of cancer is insignificant but very large numbers of people are involved and the overall effect migh e thab t t about 15,000 wile prematureldi l y from cancer, 12 years or so earlier than they would have done otherwise. There have been reports that about a quarter of a million workers were clean-uth e r broughfo p n i operationst . Their doses were nominally limited to 250 mSv although some observers have suggested thae actuath t l doses might have exceeded this limit in some cases by an order of magnitude. One might anticipate about 2000 fatal cancers amongst these workers. These fatalities are summarised in Table 3. Thirty-five years an2 year1 d s have been assume r los fo f dlifo s e expectancr fo y prompt death d fataan s l cancers respectively s appropriati t I . e to associate these consequences wit a notionah l capacit f 100o y 0 MWe. e fatalitieTh s resulting froe postulateth m d global climatic chango fossit e ldu e fuel burning have been considere y Clemenb d t (1989) estimatee H . d that there mighmillio1 e tb n sudden deaths in floods 0 millio1 , n delayed deaths from starvatio0 10 d an n million people forced into permanent migration. The choice of appropriate values for loss of life expectancy resulting from sudden death n floodi s delayed an s d deaths from starvatiot no s i n straightforward. Catastrophic floodin a leveriseo se t n e lsi du g is most likely to affect unprotected areas like Bangladesh. Areas such as the Sahel region of Africa are very vulnerable to drought, with consequent potentia r starvationfo l e lifTh .e expectanc n boti y h area wels i s l below tha Nortn i t h Americd an a Europe. For the purposes of illustration, losses of life expectancy of 20 years and 10 years will be taken for sudden and delayed deaths respectively. These values are summarised in e attributioTh Tabl . e4 thesf o n e fatalitie o individuast l units of generating capacity is complicated. A very simple approach, which may be justifiable at the margin, is to argue that effects should be apportioned on the basis of the contribution to the total input of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels since the start of the industrial revolution. Some allowance would also have to be made for the contribution of carbon dioxide relative to that of the other greenhouse gases. This crude calculation suggests that e effect0.001th f o %s

63 Tabl . 3 eFatalitie s resultin gnucleag frobi ma r accident such as that which occurred at Chernobyl

Prcrpt Delayed Total

Fatalitie ) (y Fatalitie£ ) Fatalitie(y ) LL s£ (y U £ s Il s

Occupational 30 1000 2000 24000 2030 25000

Public 0 0 15000 180000 15000 180000

Table 4. Fatalities resulting from postulated global climatic change due to fossil fuel burning. (Clement, 1989)

Sudden Deaths Delayed Deaths Total in Floods from Starvation

Fatalitie ) (y Fatalitie ) £ (y FatalitieII E ) s (y LL E s LL s

Global 10 2x10 10 10',8 l.lxlO7 1.2X108

1000 We 10 200 100 1000 110 1200

resulting from postulated global climatic change should be apportioned to 40 years operation of a 1000 MWe coal-fired power station. The corresponding fatalities are given in Table 4. The fatalities under consideration in this section cannot be straightforwardly compared with those for normal operation. Instead, it is necessary to multiply by the chance of occurrence in order to derive expectations of fatality. Modern design standards should ensure thae annuath t l y givechancan nf o e reactor g havinaccidenbi a g t o morn woula e b n di tha l n million. The expectation of fatalities resulting from a big accident during 40 year lifetime of a 1000 MWe nuclear power statio e e situatioshowTh ar n nTabli n . 5 s ei somewha n t different for global climatic change. In this case the chance of occurrence is actually a judgement of the likelihood that prediction f globao s l climatic change migh e sustainedb t r Fo . the purpose f illustrationo s 0 chanc1 n s assumedi i e 1 e a ,Th . resulting expectatio f fatalitieno shows i s Tabln i n . 6 e

64 Table 5. Expectation of fatalities resulting from a big accident yea0 durin4 re lifetimgth 100a nucleae f eo 0MW r power station

Protpt Delayed Total

Fatalities HZ (y) Fatalities LLE (y) Fatalities U£ (y)

Occupational 0,001 0.04 0.08 1 0.08 1

Public 0 0 0.6 7 0.6 7

(Big accident fatalities taken from Table 3; 10~ p.a. frequency of big accident)

Tabl . 6 eExpectatio f fatalitieno s resulting from global climatic change which might be attributable to a 1000 MWe coal-fired power station

Praipt Delayed Total

Fatalities IIZ (y) Fatalities LLE (y) Fatalities II£ (y)

Public 1 20 10 100 11 120

(Attributable fatalities taken from Table 4; 1 in 10 chance that prediction of global climatic change might be sustained)

3 Weightin3. g Publi Occupationad can l Fatality How should public fatality be valued relative to occupational? One might consider that they shoul e giveb d n equal e weighon r o t might argue that the former results from involuntary exposure and should thu e weighteb s d more e highlyotheth n K O rU .han e th d National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB s suggesteha ) d that the monetary valuation of radiation dose should increase with increasing level of individual exposure (see eg Webb, 1987) so tha a unit f occupationao t l collective dose would generalle b y valued more highly than a unit of public collective dose. A baseline valu f £500o e recommender w man-Spe 0no s i v d (Robd an b Wrixon, 1988) which mus e multiplieb t a facto y b d r greater than n oi order o 1 reflect equar o t l t individual risk aversion

65 towards increasing level f individuao s l dos s showa e n Fig.2i n . Above 1 Sv the detriment to health will increasingly be dominated by non-stochastic effects in single organs. The element of judgement introduces uncertaint d result an a ysprea n f i so d value r eacfo sh individual dose. This curve applie o bott s h workers and members of the public. For example, the multiplier for routine public exposure is unlikely to exceed a factor of 2 ; the multiplie r occupationafo r r yeape l r v exposurwoulmS 5 do t e be between about 4 and 6. NRPB are considering whether these values may need revision following the recent ICRP draft recommendation radiation so n risk dosd san e limits.

161-

12 o •*-» O

où

0 i__i Iff* 10-4 Annual Individual Dose (Sv)

FIG. Uncertaint2 . y factor reflecting individual risk aversion towards increasing levelf so individual dose.

4 Weightin3. g Normal Operatio Potentiad nan Catastrophr lfo e Applicatio actuariaf no l principles would suggest tha a tfatalit y arisin norman i g l operation shoul e weighteb d d identicalln a o t y expected fatality resulting fro a catastrophim c event. However, e latteth r will generally resul n multipli t e fatalitied an s society tends to view such events more critically than accidents to individuals. For example, a 1 in a million chance that 1000 people migh e killeb t s viewei d morr fa de seriousln yi tha1 a n 1000 chance than a individuat l might die, althouge th h expectation is the same in both cases. The basis for this aversion to more serious accidents is not well understood. A detailed discussion is beyond the scope of this note. For present purposes, it is sufficient to recognise that some people advocate that expected deaths in accidents should be weighted more heavily.

66 . VALU4 LIFF EO E The monetary valuation of life underlies the valuation of radiation dose which was considered in Section 3.3. It also provide a scommo n basi r judginfo s e relativth g e valuationf o s health effects on the one hand and the economic consequences of a big reactor acciden globar to l climate change otherth n e.o A repore Environmenta th r CEG fo y tb B l Risk Assessment Unit a t e Universitth f Easo y t Anglia (Fernandes-Russel , 1988al t e l) considered the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods for monetary valuation of human life and presented results fro n extensiva m e e literaturrevieth f o w n threi e e sectors; industry, medicine transportationd ,an concentratet I . d n 'statisticao l life', i.e. situation n whici se identitth h f o y the individual at risk is unknown, although a survey of legal compensation for fatal accidents in the UK was included for comparison. Four methods may be used to evaluate statistical life: human capital, individual revealed preference, expressed preferencd ean regulatory revealed preference. Their advantages and disadvantages are summarised in Table 7. Broadly speaking human capital provides a value for life in the range of £10k to £1M, very similar to the range of values for UK compensation for fatal accidents. Individual revealed preference yields values in the range of £100k to £10M, principally derived from compensating wage differentials in industry. Expressed preferenc r expenditurfo e e nuclea th n transpor o en i r d an t industry also produces e samvalueth e n e i medicasrange th n i ;l field the range is from £lOk to £10M. Values determined from regulatory revealed preference exhibit not only very wide ranges in a given sector but also exhibit significant variations from one sector to another: Sector Value of life Medical 3 0.000. - 3 Road 0.001 - 0.5 Air 0.1 - 0.3 Chemical regulation 0 0.0010 3- Nuclear industry 0.1 - 500 It seems thamose th tt satisfactory method derivinr fo s a valug e for assessmen f investmento t n safeti s e base ar yn expresse o d d and individual revealed preferences which yield e valueth n i s range from o £10Mt £0.1M t .mighI t als e concludeb o d that expenditures on safety implied by regulatory revealed preference beint no ge ar judge coherena n o d t basis, with substantial under- expenditure in the medical sector and over-expenditure in the chemical and nuclear industries.

67 TOBLE 7. SUMMARY OF EMPIRICAL METTOCS TO FVATIRTg A STATISTICAL LIFE

Method Dérivatio Valuf no Liff eo e Advantages Disadvantages

HUMAN CAPITAL Present valu futurf eo e 1) At best, future earnings give 1) At worst, future earnings have no earnings foregone due to only a minimum estimate. relationship with valu liff eo o et death. (Factors other than 2) Earnings provide consistent individual or society. earnings can be included)) 2 . valuations. Difficulties for the valuation of 3) Enables explicit differentiation non-earners. between ) earning3 othed san r Factors other than earnings are not factors (suffering, bereavement). consistently applied. 4) Readily available data for evaluation.

WILLINGNESS TO PAY Expressed Derived fro hypotheticama l 1) Reflects individual's choice and 1) Reflect valuatiosa n fron hypothe- preference choice (in practice fron preferences. tical choice rather than actual questionnaire responses). 2) Based on theoretical foundations. choice. 3) Particular range risf so k reductio) 2 n No ceilin hypothetican go l can be investigated. expenditure. 4) Safety areas for which no market 3) Coherent replies require familiarity data investigated e exisb n tca . with probability concepts. Revealed Derived fro nreaa l choice. preference 1) Individual Derived fron individual's 1) Reflects individual's choicd ean 1) Inherent assumptio individual'f no s preference choice of market goods, preferences. freedo choicf mo freg (e ee labour time saving trade-offs or 2) Base theoretican do l foundations. market, availabilit safetf yo y goods fron wage premium/job risk for purchase) doe alwayt sno s hold. trade-offs (conpensating 2) Limited to circumstances where market wage differentials). data exist. 2) Regulatory Derived fran na 1) Authoritative/"expert" assessment. 1) Not based on individual's choices and resource institution's decisions. 2) Reflects society's values through distortee b y 2)Ha extraneouy db s allocation the democratic political process. factor politicalg s(e , historical, decisions. administrative, professionalt )no concerned with saving lives. Monetary valuatio f lif o ns clearl i e n are a ywhicn i a wilt i he b l very difficult to reach a societal consensus. This difficulty wil e compoundeb l e neen liveo th valuow t d t only r sb dno e ou y but also those of the inhabitants of Bangladesh, say. There is no moral justificatio r valuinfo n g these lives differently. However, human capital and willingness to pay methods will undoubtedly give very different valuations.

5. DISCUSSION In principle e coul ,w w compil no d summarea ye healt th tabl r hfo e detriments from nuclear and coal-fired power stations, expressed in term f fatalitieso s , los f lifo s e expectanc r moneyo y e W . could then ente e datth ra into HIVIEW, make judgemente th n o s appropriate weighting between normal operatio d catastrophesan n , publi d occupationaan c l fatalities .anc et ,d reac a decisioh n o n which woul e preferableb d . However o s prematurs i t o i d , o t e since many of the values are very simplistic estimates. Further work is required to support or revise the assumptions underlying them. We may not be in a position to reach a decision but the structured approach encouraged by multi-attribute utility analysis has helped to focus attention on a number of issues which will need to be considered more carefully. Many of them are more generally applicable to the spectrum of activities involved in electricity generation, ie from mining through to waste disposal. The key issues may be characterised under 4 headings: quantificatio f effecto n n healto s d safetyan h ; valuatio e detrimentth f o n o healtt s d safetyan h ; attributiof o n detriments to individual generating capacity; and relative weighting of different types of detriment. The effects of radiation resulting from normal operation of a nuclear power station are relatively well-known, as are the consequences of a big nuclear accident. The major uncertainty lies in the frequency of occurrence of a big accident. Modern designs should make suc n occurrenca h e less likela y n thai 1 n million per reactor per year; public perception of the appropriate value for this frequency might be somewhat higher. Surprisingly, the health effects of flue gases and particulate emissions from coal-fired power station e morar s e difficulo t t evaluate. Ther concers i e n abou carcinogenie tth c effectr ai f so pollution resulting from fossil fuel burning. Many thousandf o s cancers migheacK U hattributable e t b th yea n i r o thiet s source. However, unti a lline carcinogen s proveth i k d an n s identified, it wil difficule b l o quantift effece coal-firea th y f to d power stations evei nt I mor. e difficul o evaluatt t e likelth e y extent of global warming and the resulting climatic change. We can speculate on the magnitudes of the catastrophes which might e chancresulth t e bu t thar theorieou t s migh e vindicateb t s i d very uncertain. Premature deat probabls i h mose th yt commonly uset leasye d t well understood measure of detriment to health and safety. It makes no allowance for either the timing or the manner of its occurrence e concepTh . f los o tf lif o s e expectancy providee on s method for recognising such distinctions. It is also potentially

69 capabl f accommodatino e g hereditary effects. t Howeverno s i t i , without difficulties r exampleFo . , ther s evidenci e e that some people would actually prefer immediat ee prospec deatth a o t hf o t slow decline fro a dream d disease. Ther e circumstancesar e r fo , example when judgin e relativth g e importanc f healto e h effects and economic consequence g reactobi a rf o sacciden r globao t l climatic change, when it may be useful to present detriments in monetary terms. Valuatio a delicatf lif o ns i e e topic, subject to considerable debate. Existing studies exhibi widta e rangf o e values, depending on the method of valuation and the circumstances in which the valuation is made. Mishan (1985) has suggested that there may be a rational basis for understanding some of this variation but he remains unconvinced that consistency is achievable. These uncertainties will also underli valuatioe eth radiatiof no n dose. e attributioTh f detrimento n o individuat s l generating capacity is relatively straightforwar r nucleafo d re othepowerth n rO . hand, the health consequences of air pollution and global climatic change resulting from fossil fuel burning are extremely difficult to allocate. In the case of air pollution, it is the concentratio f pollutanto n t grouna s d level whic s importanti h . necessars i Thu t i s o considet y t onle relativrno th y e magnitudes of the source terms from power generation and other uses but also e heightth f releaso s d dispersioan e n characteristics. Such calculation t difficulno e ar sprincipln i t e but s notea , d above, it is necessary firstly to identify the responsible carcinogens. Global climatic change is even more difficult to deal with because we must make appropriate allowance for historical emissions of carbon dioxide. The prospects for a convincing assessment are unclear. e issueTh s considere e abovth n ei dthre e paragraphe ar s substantially technical in nature. However, the choice of number f fatalitieo s r los o sf lif o s e expectanc r monetaro y y valuatio r quantifyinfo n e detrimenth g o healtt t d safetan h y inevitably involves judgements which will be made differently by different members of society. It might be expected that individual value judgements will play an even greater role when weighting public against occupational fatality d normaan , l operation against potentia r catastrophefo l t I woule .b d unrealistic to expect a societal consensus on such issues. The advantage of multi-attribute utility analysis is that it makes explici weightine tth g place eacn o d h health detrimen d allowan t s an appreciatio e sensitivitth f a o decision f o yo t sucn h weightings.

6. CONCLUSIONS Multi-attribute utility analysis has proved to be a useful approach to the structuring of a comparison between nuclear and coal-fired power stations based on their risks to health and safety. In particular, it has enabled a clearer distinction to be drawn betwee e technicath n l uncertaintie e individuath d an s l or societal judgements which will be implicit in any decision on

70 their relative merits. The technique shows sufficient promise to warrant a consideration of its application to all viable options for power generation, including its extension to: Factors other than healt safetyd an h ; Complete electricity generating systems, eg mining through wasto t e disposal.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This pape publishes i r permissioy b d Nucleaf o n r Electric pic.

REFERENCES

Clement, C.F., 1989, "The Characteristic f Risko s f Majoo s r Disasters". Proc. R. Soc. Lond., A 424. 439-459. Commission on Energy and the Environment, 1981, "Coal and the Environment". HMSO, London. Fernandes-Russell, D., Bentham, G., Haynes, R., Kemp, R. and Roberts, L., 1988, "The Economic Valuation of Statistical Life from Safety Assessment". Research report number 5, Environmental Risk Assessment Unit, Universit Easf yo t Anglia. Fremlin, J.H., 1989, "Power Production Risks?e :th Whad e 2n ar "t Edition, Ch.lO. Adam Hughes, Bristol. Hoaksey , 1990A. , , "Widenin e Discussioth g n Tolerabilito n f o y Risk". J. Radiol. Prot., 10, 31-37. ICRP, 19771 "Problems Involve n Developini d n Indea g f Harm"o x . ICRP Publication 27, Annals of the ICRP, 1 (4). ICRP, 1986, "Quantitative Base Developinr fo s Unifiea g d Indef o x Harm". ICRP Publication 45, Annals of the ICRP, 15 (3). Mishan, E.J., 1985, "Consistenc e Valuatioth n i y f Lifeo n A : Wild Goose Chase?" Social Philosophy and Policy, 2., 152-167. Robb, J.D. and Wrixon, A.D., 1988, "Revised Estimates of the Monetary Value of Collective Dose". NRPB-M157. Watson, S.R d Buedean . , D.N., 1987, "Decisions Synthesise Th : Principal d Practican s f o Decisioe n Analysis." Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Webb, G.A.M., 1987, "The Development of ALARA - Philosophy and Practice". pp 3-18, "ALARA Principles, Practice and Consequences" s Lakeyed , , J.R. d LewinsAan , J.D., Adam Hughes, Bristol. O WorkinWH g Group, 1986, Totae Sciencth lr fo Environmente , 52 , 157-187.

Next page(s1 7 ) left blank COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR VARIOUS ENERGY SYSTEMS: ISSUE REVIEN SI W

S. HADDAD Safety Assessment Section, Division of Nuclear Energy and Safety, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

Abstract

The paper calls for a reappraisal of some methodological and procedural issues to strengthen the application of comparative risk assessment tools in the decision making process for electricity planning. Such issues include a consistent delineation of boundarie differenf so t fuel cycles; widenin completenesd gan f datso a methode th r sfo assessment of impacts particularly on the environment and dose-effect relationships for chemical agents and the long-term effect of waste disposal technologies; and methods for the treatment of severe accidents risks. It is also indicated that aggregation of the different time scale e comparativ f th risko s n i , e risk assessment process, shoule b d accompanied by clear indications of these time scales. All components of the integrated risk value should be fully exposed.

Overview

The environmental and health impacts of energy systems are emerging as one of the most important geo-political issues of this decade. Traditionally, the decision making process concernin energf o x nature ymi g th systemd ean s relate maie th economio nn dt i c considerations, almos wel w isolationn i t no l recognizes i t I . d that environmentad an l safety considerations must play an important role in energy planning and in the formulatio implementatiod nan appropriatn a f no e energ thax ytmi meets bot neee hth d for growt developmend han wels a tthas a lf environmenta o t safetd an l y goals.

All energy systems be it based on fossil fuel, nuclear or hydro power, have an associated healt environmentad han l impact. Risks associated with energy production, wits othey a h an entirele rb activityt no yn eliminatedca , assessmene Th . thosf o t e risks fro ma particula r energy syste s mnecessari n ordei y o reduct r e risks, formulate environmental contro safetd an l y management strategie o optimizt d an s e resources expenditure associated wite mitigatioth h e protectiof hazardo th n e d th an sf o n environment. At this level of assessment, issues such as the "acceptability" and "tolerability" of a particular level of risk are in many cases the subject of debate and uncertainties. Arguments continu o "hot s wa e saf s safi e e enough d "whaa an " s i t negligible level of risk". Viewed in a broader context, such arguments can be addressed from a decision making viewpoint, when comparisons are made between various levels of risk from alternative sources and technologies of energy systems. It could be argued in fact that the "acceptability" of a risk can only be determined when it is viewed in the broader comparative contex f variouo t s alternative e determineb s whern ca t i es a d "tolerable bese th tr alternative"fo .

73 This paper outlines the current issues relevant to comparative risk assessment of various energy systems with emphasis on their health effects. The key aspects of the comparison process with example f receno s t studie e indicatedsar .

t musI notee b t comparativy d an tha r fo t e risk assessmen valide b maio o t tw ,tn criteria must apply:

(a) The comparison must be as complete and comprehensive as possible, hence covering all the elements and dimensions of risk over the entire e energcyclth f eo y system (b) Uncertainties in the derivation of risks must be explicitly stated and acknowledged.

It must also be recognized that the comparative risk assessment process inevitably involves value judgement qualitativa f s(o e nature) since society places varying valued san emphasi differenn o s t attribute socio-economid an s c considerations. Notwithstanding, when performed and used in its proper context and as part of an evaluation process, comparative assessment provide "educatedn a e basi r th s fo s " value judgement, hence assistin appropriatn ga e decision making proces thin si s regard.

Methodological Issues

Comparison of environmental and health risks from various energy sources and technologies necessitates a systematic approach for analysis together with a consistent set of assumptions amon varioue gth s alternatives methodologicay Ke . l issue thin si s regard includ followinge th e : e energl stepth Al f o sy syste) (a m coverin e entirgth e fuel cycle shoule b d include e analysith n i d s (e.g w materialra . e mininfuer th o l f ,o g transportation, construction, production, wastes disposal) healte Th d . han environmental particulaa ris f ko riske rth f energsf o o m ysu optio e th s ni all the individual steps of the corresponding fuel cycle. A comprehensive comparative assessment should includ rise eth k associated fro entire mth e fuel cycle as well as depicting the various contributors to that total risk from each componenet of the fuel cycle.

The methodological implications of the above is that the boundaries of the various energy systems under comparison shoul e defineb d d shoulan de b d consistent across the range of the comparison.

) (b Immediate/short term healt environmentad han l impact wels s a lon s a l g term/delayed impacts should be included in the comparison. These impact differene sar integraten naturn a i t d ean d risk indicator covering both without them being stated separatel misleadinge b y yma , hence both impacts statee nee b considered o dt dan d separately misleadins i t I . o gt limi e comparisoth t e acuteth o nt , immediate effect f emissiono s s when significant late effects may occur from such emissions.

currene Th t stat knowledgf eo relation ei healto nt h impact particulan si r varies significantl variour yfo s energy systems. Relativ radiatioo et n effects

74 (both immediat latentd an e ) from nuclear power based energy systems which are generally well established, there are large uncertainties (and lack of knowledge) concernin e healt th gd environmenan h t effects from emissions (particularly chemicals) from non-nuclear energy systems. These uncertainties particularly synergistirelate th o et c effect f simultaneouo s s exposur numbea o et chemicalf o r significantld san latene th o yt t effecf o t exposure to emissions and chemicals (including both continuous and accidental exposure to low level emissions). Such lack of knowledge in the dose-effect relationshi non-nucleaf po r energy system particulan si r induces uncertainties in the comparative assessment process which traditionally hav t beeeno n fully recognised e methodologicaTh . l implicatione th f o s abov e e thashoular e on t tevaluat no d e onle certaith y n impactst bu , extend the evaluation also to "potential" impacts.

(c) The uncertainties associated with the risk assessment process including uncertainties in input data and in the models for impact evaluation, should be exposed and clearly stated.

A particular area of uncertainty in this regard relates to the low doses which may be shared by large groups of the population. The health detriment from relatively high dose e generallar s y well established. However, it is the usual practice to linearly extrapolate such knowledge down to the low levels of interest without treshold down to a zero value. This practice which is applied to radiation effects in the nuclear industry t uniformelisno y adopte r non-nucleadfo - chemicar l emissions exposure and is recognized as being highly conservative. Thus the fatalities determined on the basis of this practice are calculated hypothetical fatalitie e compareb t s no whic n d ca hdirectl y with registered actual fatalities [5].

(d) The risk to the health of workers and those to the public have to be considered separately and could not be aggregated into a single risk indicator since the nature, extent and level of perception for both categories are different.

(e) Environmental and health risks from routine operations (associated with continuous emissions) canno directle b t y compared with those associated from accidents, particularly severe accidents of low probability/high consequences. Severe accident risk shoul e treateddb , compared an d presented separately e comparativth n I . e risk assessment processs i t i , misleadin comparo gt e data base actuan o d l past occurrenc f severo e e accidents (statistical, historical data) with those based on predicted/probabilistic values.

(f) Comparative environmental risk impact should consider local, regional and global impacts. Whilst traditionally, the assessment process tended to focu n locao s l impact e immediatth n i s e surroundin e planth r f o to g transport mode, regional environmental issues such as acidification and global impac COf o t 2 emission particulan si termn ri potentiaf so l climate warming mak t essentiaei includo t l e broader locational considerationn si risk assessment and comparison.

75 (g) Assumptions made about the levels of technology, both those applicable to the production of energy as well as those associated with the degree of environmental protection shoul e consistenb d t acros e e rangth th s f o e various energy systems being compared. Variations in the levels of technologies adopted at a country level are often cited as a methodological deficienc comparativn i y e risk assessmen t n appropriatstudiesa s i t I . e requirement to compare up to date technologies applicable at the time and o t includ a serioue s assessmen f possiblo t e future technological developments for all systems under comparison.

(h) The various time-dependencies of the risk estimates should be accounted for. Risk f entiro s e system n ofte ca e sexpresse b n d onl s overala y l averages applicabl assessmene time th f th eo t ea thae t b process ty ma t I . the actual future impact from a technological development, is not taken into account r thamarginae o , th t l effect f addinsystee o sw th ne o gmt a technological advance is not fully included. The average risk for the entire differensystee b y mma t from that resulting from marginal addition thao st t system.

Results of Comparisons

Various studies that attemp o quantift t e healtth y h risk f differeno s t energy source systemsd san , particularly those associated with electricity production, have been published since the early 1970's. The reference listing to this paper includes representative f thesso e studies dateo T environmentae . th , l impact variouf so s energy sources have been covered to a much lesser extent relative to health impacts in comparative studies. A critical extensive survey of earlier comparative risk assessment studies was performed by the UK Health and Safety Executive [7]. Whilst noting most of the methodological issues indicate previoue th n di s section repore ,th t particularly highlighted deficiencies concerning the aggregration of the various dimensions of risk into the one indicator (e.g. occupational and public risk, routine and accidental risk); and significantly the uncertainties in the quantification of certain risks which may not be amenable to quantification. This applie n particulai s o uncertaintiet r e quantificatioth n i s f o n dose-effect relationships includin late lond gth ean g term effect f exposuro s ageno et t chemicals.

The report indicates that non-nuclear risks are often less well understood than the corresponding nuclear riskd call r greatean sfo s r understandin n relatiogi e th : nto significance of upper and lower limits to alleged chronic sulphur effects; long term non-nuclear effect f wasteso s e potentiath ; l major hazards associated with certain non-nuclear plants, and; the distinction between average risks of a system and the risk associated with marginal change [7]. Figurexampln a s earliei n a e1 f eo r comparisor nfo larga e scale centralized electricity production syste fivr mfo e energy systems [14]e .Th comparative data are presented as indicative only, with the various elements of risk kept separatel alloo yt readee wth mako t r e his/he valun row e judgement. Severe accidents healte th t include e hno riskar risk e r ar s dno s from wastes generation. e Datth n ao health ris f wasteko s particularl r fossiyfo l fuel energy system e eithear s t availablno r e

76 i . 132000 . 45.000

- 19200 15000- ACCID INJURY g

. ACCID DEAT| H r *•• f, ', FATAL DISEASE Bl RANGE & " ; 3 10.000- FATALITY1 - 6000 MDL V) ;

O l ! i z : 2 5000- _ - ] i 2000- " Hi 1000- i ^ _f n ; ^| g? fIJi & n i i JEl STER LW G S GA COA L LOI R STELW C S GA COA L OI L OCCUPATIONAL PUBLIC

FIG. 1. Occupational and public man-days lost per GW(e)/a for five energy systems; (STEG = solar thermal electric conversion) (Ref. [13]).

or subject to great uncertainties. The authors are careful to warn that these types of analysi onle sar yevaluatio n para f o t n process wit resulte hth s being sensitiv larga o et e f assumptiono t se uncertaintiesd san .

e resultTh s impl occupationan ya l risk spectrum dominate e constructioth y db n solae th ris f r ko therma l electric (STEC) occupationan systea d man l risr nucleakfo r energy generally comparable with thar gas e fo relativelt Th . contributiow lo y f o n occupational (fatal) diseas r coafo e l (compare e resultth o t ds obtained from other studies assumptioe th opelargels )i o % t t coa 5 e npi 5 yldu f no mining resulte Th . s also impl ypublia c risk dominate coay db l from health effectr emissionai f o s s (COX, NO^ particulates) with large degre f uncertaintyo e e accidentaTh . l public risr coakfo s i l particularly significant due to the relatively large contribution from coal transportation accidents.

Two more recent studies are of particular relevance to this field. Kallenbach et al [11] reviewe da numbe f comparativo r e risk assessment studies fro e relevanmth t literature. They found that some of the estimates for single technologies differ from one study to another. As expected, the variations mainly stem from two factors: how complet contributione eth overale th o st l risk leve variour fo l s energy sources coule db assessed, and; uncertainties concerning dose-effect relationship r differensfo t agentd san how these uncertainties are being considered in the comparison process. The results of the study are summarized in the bar charts in figures 2, 3 on a highly aggregate risk basis. The assumptions adopted appear to vary for the various energy systems where severe accident incorporatee sar d (mathematical expectation values)r fo the nuclear energy option but not for the others. The health risk effect of wastes is also considere nucleae th r dfo r otherse energth r fo .y t optiono t nbu

77 Nuclear I__I Occupational Risk Ceil RgSS Public Risk oa

Nataral G«i Wind I Wind H WinI H d SoUr 1 Solar II SolaI II r

10 20

( CM« ptr GWa«i ]

FIG. 2. Number of fatalities per GW(e)/a, divided into occupational and public risks (linear scale) (Ref. [11]).

[— —, Occupational Risk Nuclear wwwwwvwvyvy D Public Risk Coal py5^^ÖOÖOÖQÖÖÖÖ^QQ^«2>^ D oa JJJQOQUOQÇÇQQQQÇ'ÇÇQQÇQQQQI 0 Natural Gai fi 1 Wind I JOÖOOOOOOQOQOOOQOOOÖCH 0 Wind II 6 D Wind III e Solar I D PÇÇÇÇQÇ"QQQ^ÇQQQ<,X?y^j2^ 1 Solar II 0 0 Solar III g i i i i 0 1 0.001 1 0.0 11 0. 100

( Case* ptr GWa«i ]

FIG. 3. Number of fatalities per GW(e)/a, divided into occupational and public risks (logarithmic scale) (Ref. [11]).

78 Both figures imply that energy systems based on solar and wind and nuclear lowee th energn ri rise ykar spectrum. Niehaus [13furthea n i ] r analysi e studth f yo s point t howevesou r tha assumes i tt resulte i base th f i n t figurdd o sa thaan e3 t there are no health effects from atmospheric emissions from coal burning and from the disposal of coal wastes and if low-level radioactive emissions from the nuclear fuel cycle are integrated over 500 years, then the risks from the nuclear fuel cycle can be estimated to exceed those from coal. This highlights the importance of establishing a reliable methodology for the risk assessment of exposure to low level doses of radiation and to chemical substances [13].

The study by Fritzsche [5] represents one of the most recent review attempt in comparative risk assessment for various energy sources. The results indicated in figures 4carefull5 , y differentiate betwee e variounth s dimension f riso s k specifically those associated with normal from accidental conditions e result Th e though. ar e s b o t t representative of large modern power stations which could be built at the present time Europen i e uncertaintieTh . datn i s a reliabilit o differencee scattet th e d du r an y s stemming from various installations, processes, accident frequencies, etc e reflectear . d in the ways the results are presented: the bars indicate the areas of uncertainties with the shaded areas representing rather reliable information. Although a rank ordering of the various energy systems from a risk viewpoint can be depicted, the absolute values must be viewed and interpreted with care and on a relative basis in view of variations between sites and technologies. Future technological advances for example for renewable solar and wind energy sources may result in significant reduction in occupational risk associated wit fouo ht thosrp u order o et f systemsmagnitude o sb y ma , e [5]e Th . relatively large area uncertaintief so s associated with delayed health risalse kar o worth noting. These risk e largelar s y determine e healtth y hb d consequence f routino s e emissions which are highly uncertain for non-nuclear energy sources in particular where reliable data do not exist and; uncertainties in the assessment of very low level emissions whic sharee havy b o hma larget y db e grouppopulatione th f o s .

The risks of severe accidents should be treated and presented separately in the comparative risk assessment l energAl . y systems t nucleari e b , , hydropower,r coalo l oi , s hav e potentiaga th e r severfo l e accident f varyino s g consequence d likelihoodan s . Tabl presente1 s mose somth f t eo widel y reported severe accident variour sfo s energy sources. Table 2 groups the severe accident statistics by energy source [13]. The data are in terms of acute/early fatalities only, since late fatalities statistics (for the non-nuclear energy options in particular) are not reliably available.

For comparison purposes, the data have been normalized per unit of electricity production in figures 6, 7.

RecentlyHealtK U d Safet e an hth ,y Executive publishe a ddocumen n o t "Quantified risk assessment s inpuIt : o decisiot t n making" [7]. Figur 8 froe m this document update riske sth s from various type hazardouf so s situation U.Ke e th Th n .s i document explicitly warns to "read across" the diagramme in a quantitative way. Rather qualitative conclusions should be drawn. Although the data are not displayed in the figure the report notes that a necessarily very rough and ready check was made using quantitative assessments from typical siter installationfo s s handling hazardous substances. It continues that "in the context of this rough and ready estimate agreement with line 4 within an order of magnitude is as much as might be expected. Our rough and ready estimate turns out to be rather closer to line 4 than might be expected, up to

79 OCCUPATIONAL MORTALITY RISK Late risk (disease) Acute risk (accidents)

10 1 0.1 0,01 0,01 0,1 1 10

fatalttas p«r GWy(a)

FIG. Occupationa4 . l mortalit yelectricito t risk e sdu y production (all fuee stepth lf so cycle; without severe accidents) (Ref. [5]).

PUBLIC MORTALITY RISK

Late risk (disease) Acute risk (accidents) 1 01 0.01 0,001 0,001 0.01 0.1

10 0,1 0,01 0.001 0.001 0,01 0.1 tatiltiM p«r OWyfe)

FIG . Publi5 . c mortalit yelectricito t risk e sdu y production (all fuee stepth l f cycleso ; without severe accidents) (Ref. [5]).

80 TABL1 E

Reported Industrial Severe Accidents Involving Energy Systems

Deaths Other Effects

1969 Borroteau Explosios FirGa e& n 178 (Mexico) in Coal Mine

1970 Osaka Explosion of confined gas 92 (Japan) in an underground railway construction site

1972 Buloways Gas Explosion in Coal Mine 427 (Rhodesia)

Alfaques Lo 1978 s Explosion of liquified 216 200 casualties (Spain) propylene in transport by lorry

1977 Amaga Explosion in Coal Mine 130 (Columbia)

1978 Xilatopec Explosion of 10,000 litres 100 150 casualties (Mexico) followinG oLN f g multiple pile up involving lorry and 12 vehicles

1978 Huimanquilla Gas pipeline fracture 58 (Mexico)

1979 Istanbul Ship/tanker collision 55 95,000 ton of (Turkey) firn i el oi

1979 Bantry yBa Explosion of oil tanker 50 (Ireland) t berta h

1979 Gujarati Dam burst of hydroelectric 15000 (India) powem da r

1979 China Offshore-rig collapse 72

1980 Norway Offshore-rig collapse 123

1982 Tacoa l explosioOi fird nean 145 Fire in neigh- (Venezuela) at power station bourhood 1,000 casualties

81 TABLE I (cont.)

1983 ZonguJdak Gas Explosion in Coal Mine 106 (Turkey)

1983 Buffalo, NY Liquid propane explosion 6 70 injured, (LPG f onlgallon0 o ) y23 s 56 houses, in 3 x 8 ft container 1 church, 1 large building destroyed

1984 Cubatao Petrol explosion following 508 Fir shantn ei y Sao Paulo pipeline fracture town built (Brazil) illegalln yo Petrobas land lands

1984 Mein-Shan Fire in Coal Mine 121 (Taiwan)

Juan Sa 198n 4 ExplosioG LN f no 452 Fire in shanty (Ixhuatepec) reservoirs (90,000 barrels) town 4,248 Mexico flames 300 m high casualties, 31,000 homeless, 300,000 evacuated house0 30 s destroyed

1984 Gahri Ohoda Explosion of a natural gas 60 (Pakistan) pipeline

1986 Chernobyl Core inventory released 31 Large areas (USSR) from the reactor contaminated 130,000 evacuate dLat- e effects being investigated

1988 Pieper Alpha Oil rig fire 167 (North Sea)

1989 Ural Explosio leackaga f no e 650- traiA n passed (USSR) from a transport pipeline 800 the area causing the high number of deaths

82 TABLE 2

Severe Accidents Worldwide (1969 - 1986) For Various Energy Sources*

Energy Severe Accidents Installation Number of fatalities option No. cause Averagr epe event per year

Coal 62 mine coal mines 10...434 ove0 20 r disaster

Oil 6 capsizing oil platforms 6...123 15 fire/ refineries explosion tank farms 5...145 about 25

42 fire/ transport 5...500 over 90 explosion transport accident

Natural 24 fire/ various 6...4S2 ove0 8 r gas explosion

Wate8 r overtopping dams 11.15000 over 200

Nuclea1 r Transient Chernobyl 31 + 130,00 evacuated lan+ d contaminatioexcursion n

* see Ref.5

about 200 deaths. The agreement is perhaps fortuitous. It does however strengthen o makt confidenc A a realistie e poweQR th f n o i cre estimate, broadly matching experience".

conclusioe Th nstudiee froth l mal s considered madabove b n ee ca tha t taking into accoun e uncertaintieth t valud an s e judgements inheren thesn i t e type f studieso d san analysi assumptiond an s s about system boundaries, variation technologiesn i s , etco .n strict ranking of the various energy options could be determined but that a certain range of estimates coul broadle db y made where energy systems wit hpredominana t sharf eo natural gas, renewable sources of energy and nuclear, form the lower margin of risk while those predominantly with coal and oil form the higher margin.

83 .-t 10

fossi fuel energy cycles ,-2 10

coalmine (149)

10 _£ £ o ol fires X (149) A + + + -f + I coat transport (31) 10 I

i ,-e Ito 10 CO •5 10,-7

coat transport (31) 1Ô10

1Ö11 101 102 103 10* 10* 10* number of acute fatalities X per accident

FIG . Frequenc.6 f acutyo e fatalitie severo t e edu s accident r GW/spe electricitf ao y production; nuclear energy and fossil options (Ref. [l]).

84 -2 10

A (31) -3 10

(123) « A (31) hydraulic dams l W 00 s«-» x A\ £ 10'

I 10-«

,-7 •o 10 u nuctear power plant (LWR) 03

J3 10~ •0§} ^

10"

1Ö10

1Ô11 6 10 101 s 10 10' 4 10 103 number of acute fatalities K per accident

FIG . Frequenc.7 acutf yo e fatalitie severo t e edu s accident r GW/spe electricitf ao y production; nuclea hydraulid an r c energy (Ref. [l]).

85 1C' s 8 10

1C-1

c 10-' T-«

1C-1

fc 10- ce 10-5

•- 10-

implied Des'g Reqjiren>en livr to ie * 10- PWR feaciorn s Omits'is* dorn I associatea leg lue' teo'ocessmgi piani 10-

10- 4 0 3 1 10 10J 10 NUMBER OF FATALITIES (N| or more

Notes

1 Aircraft accidents 1966-1985, UK. Line 1 From Fernandes-Russel = 150experiencK U N l ,o t p u e above Ihat scaled to world experience 2 Railway accidents 1946-1975, UK, Line 2 From Fryer and Griffiths UK experience up to N = 100, 3 Fires and explosions 1946-1975, UK, above that scaled to world experience Later evidence from Fernandes-Russel , 1962-1985UK r fo l , suggest figures siteK U s l involvinAl 4 g "major hazard substances" somewhat lower than thos f lineo e2 5. Canvey, after improvements Line 3 From Fryer and Griffiths UK experience up to N 50, above that scale worlo dt d experience reactors6 R FivePW , conformin implieo gt d design requirements, delayed deaths included Line 4 Up to 28 deaths Actual experience 30-100 deaths extrapolated from 1/25 of world-wide experience (Gill) 7 Chernobyl, including delayed deaths (estimated) Abov death0 e10 s extrapolation modifie alloo dt Bhopar wfo l and Mexico City Excludes transport risks associated with the 8 Three Mile Island, including delayed deaths plant Points marked + and( + ) refer to work of Fernandes- Russell on UK chemical and petroleum industry 1966-1986 Points marked + refer to UK experience, points marked ( + ) fogreateN r r tha refe8 n2 o 1/2t r f worl5o d experience

Line 6 Estimate of risk outcome of designing a hypothetical programme of five PWR reactors in accordance with the Safety Assessment Principles Omits risk associatef so d plants such as fuel reprocessing plants Line 6 is thus not directly comparable with lines 1-4 which represent totality of UK or scaled world experience

FIG . Unite8 . d Kingdom risks from certain type f hazardouso s situations (Ref. [7]).

86 Concluding Remarks

Wit e reneweth h d interes comparativn i t e risk assessmen r varioufo t s energy sources re-appraisaa , somf o l e methodologica procedurad an l l issues outlines a , thin di s e appropriatpaperb y ma , strengtheo t e e applicationth f thino e decisios th too n i l n making process. It is particularly appropriate to isolate the areas of uncertainties and to further research and attempt to achieve concensus on how these uncertainties can be resolved in a practical manner. Since comparative assessment will always include a degree of value judgement, those points requiring judgement in order to reach a decision should become visible.

A review of the current state of comparative assessments indicates that focus efforts should relatwidenine th o e t completenes d gan datf so a base agree e whicb n hdca upo o ensurt n e completenesth e e analysisth f o s ; researc d agreemenan h n o t methodologie e assessmenth r sfo f impactso t , particularly dose-effect relationshipr sfo chemical agents and long term effect of waste disposal and methodologies for the treatment of severe accidents in the comparative process. Methods which can allow for the effects of the various time dependencies of risk ought to be strengthened and an attempt to develop a set of commonly agreed criteria for the judgement of various risks woul df benefit o als e ob . Aggregatio e differenth f no t time scale f riso s k shoule db accompanie cleay db r indication f theso s e tim e assumption th scale d an s s useo t d aggregate. It must also be noted that risk perception should be discussed within the fram comparativf eo e risk assessment sinc incorporatioe eth varyine th f no g attitudef so e publith o riskt c s into quantitative risk assessmen nevey e fulle b ma abltb ry o t e resolved.

References

1. Bennett, L.L., Niehaus, F., Guthrie, W.D., Müller, T., Electricity production and Carbon Dioxide: Nuclear Energy in Perspective, presented at Workshop on "Energ Environmend yan Sustainabl- t e Energy Use" Velen, Westphalia, 1989.

2. Black, S.C., Niehaus, F., Comparison of Risks and Benefits Among Different Energy Systems : ProceedingIn . s Intern. Worksho Interactionn po Energf so d yan Climate, Münster, March 3 - 7, 1980.

. 3 Cohen, A.V d Pritchard.an , D.K., Comparative risk f electricito s y production systems: a critical survey of the literature, Health and Safety Executive, HMSO, London.

4. Commissio e Europeath f o n n Communities e impacTh , f conventionao t d an l nuclear industries on the population: A comparison study of the radioactive and chemical aspects 10557EN,R ReporEU . No t, 1988

5. Fritzsche, A.F., The Health Risks of Energy Production, Risk Analysis, Vol.9, No. 4, 1989.

6. Hamilton, L.D., (1985) Overview of Health Risk Analysis and Assessment for Selected Energy Systems, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, N.Y. USA.

87 7. Health and Safety Executive, 1989, Quantified Risk Assessment: Its input to decision making. Her Majesty's Stationary Office, London, U.K.

8. Inhaber, H., Energy Risk Assessment. New York: Gordon and Breach, Science Publishers, Inc., 1982.

9. International Atomic Energy Agency, 1988, Assessin Managind gan g Healtd han Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems, IAEA-TECDOC-453.

. 10 International Atomic Energy Agency, 1984, Risk Benefitd san Energf o s y Systems, Proceedings of a Symposium IAEA-WHO-UNEP, Jülich, FRG, 9 - 3 April 1984.

. 11 Kallenbach , ThöneU. , , VossE. ,. (1988A , ) Comparative risk f Differeno s t Electricity Generating Systems, paper presented at International Workshop "Envrisk 88; May 11-13, 1988 Como, Italy.

12. Myers, D.K., Werner, M.M., A review of the Health Effects of Energy Developments, in Nuclear Journals of Canada 1987/1:1, pp. 14 - 24.

. 13 Niehaus , RiskF. , Energf so y Productio Perspectiven ni , Background Materiar fo l Research Seminar'89: Risks in Energy Production and Their Acceptability, 1989.

. 14 Niehaus , NovegnoF. , . (1982A , ) Optimal Allocatio f Resourceno r Safetysfo n I . Proceedings: Risk symposiua , assessmene th n mo perceptiod tan risf n o huma o kt n health in Canada, 18 - 19 October 1982, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

15. US Atomic Energy Commission, 1974, Comparative Risk-Cost-Benefit Study of Alternative Source f Electricaso l Energy, WASH-1224.

16. US Department of Energy, 1988, Energy Technologies and the Environment, Environmental Information Handbook, DOE/EH-0077.

88 THE NEED FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DATA IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

G.E. BETTERIDGE TechnologyA AE , London, United Kingdom

Abstract

The paper outlines the problems facing the nuclear and coal industries of the UK and their need for sound data on the environmental effects of different fuels. Nuclear power is to be reviewed by the Government in 1994: the industry hopes to demonstrate that it is an economic option for the future when the environmental costs of alternative sources are included.

TechnologymembeA a AE s A f 1o r. mainlm a ,I y concerned with nuclear coae powerth l t als K industrproblems U ,bu oe ha th n yi s which it is trying to overcome. New problems faced the nuclear s propose wa K whe U t i industro nprivatise t dth n e i y th e electricity supply industr y o b t sellinprivaty t i ge shareholders investore Th Cit e .wis t Londoth f yo no n h si d ndi to take any risks with nuclear power and insisted that the government should cove y cost an rf dealin o s g with accidents, waste disposal and decommissioning. In addition, they expected to receiv reaea l rat returf eo morf no e thap.a% 10 nthein .o r investmen alsd tan o wante recoveo dt r their money ove periora d of around 10 years. 2. These conditions were impossibl o meet r enuclea fo t r stations, so nuclear power was withdrawn from privatisation and kept in the public sector where the existing stations are operate publio tw y dcb companies, Nuclear Electri Englann ci d dan Wales and Scottish Nuclear in Scotland. The future nuclear programm w consists reduce no wa R eunde d PW f onlan dre o s on y construction at Sizewell. At the same time, the financial conditions under privatisation have led to the cancellation of a numbe largf ro e coal stations y shortfalAn . capacitn li s yi expected to be made up by new gas-fired combined cycle stations. nucleae Th 3. r power programm reviewee b o t Governmens y edi b t in 1994 just before the Sizewell PWR is completed, so experience with construction wil importante lb . However stations ,ga e sar very cheap at present and it is expected that neither coal nor nuclear power could compete with them. Gas prices may rise rapidly if demand increases, as seems likely, and nuclear will then hav competo et e with coal. 4. The nuclear industry in the UK believes that nuclear power is making realistic allowance s financiait r fo s r l fo cost d an s "dealing with waste disposal and decommissioning. Coal stations in the UK do not yet deal with their emissions of S02 and NOX, neve rnucleae min C0th e 2o dth ,s r industr hopins yi convinco gt e

89 governmene th t thaextre th t a cost dealinf so g with coal wastes will leave nuclear mos e poweth t s reconomia c option after gas. The cost of controlling the acid gases is not enough to change the balance, but the control of C0 emissions could double

electricity prices from coal. 2 a collaborativ p u e industrt Th se 5 .e s th ha y e y b grou n ru p Chairme differene th f no t nuclear includin, companieUK e th n gsi Nuclear Electric, Scottish Nuclear, British Nuclear Fuels and AEA Technology. This body ,e Nuclea th know s a nr Utilities Chairmen's Group, or NUCG, has set up a number of study groups to prepar e casr nucleath efo e r powe n 1994i rd thesan , e cover economics, environmental effects, safety and public acceptance.

6. The UK coal industry is under pressure to reduce its emission X accordinNO guidelinesC d f S0EE so an 2 o t g . Before privatisation, this expectewa s f existino o require t d GW g2 1 e coal stations to be fitted with FGD plant. However, to reduce costs to the private companies, it has now been agreed that the two companies operating coal stations in England and Wales will retrofit only 4 GWe each, leaving the remaining S02 reductions to be obtained by importing low sulphur coal and building new gas stations to replace coal. The EEC rules are also to be reviewed in 1994, and they may be made more stringent for the UK which was originally given easier targets on the basis that it uses domestic coal with 1.5 - 2% sulphur instead of imported coal at, typically, 0.8%. 7. British Coa alreads li y sufferin reductioga demann ni d (the electricity industry uses thei f abouo % rt80 output thed e )an yar worried that the electricity supply utilities will reach the tighter limits by importing even more coal or using more gas. They are also concerned that carbon taxes may be imposed to control C02 emissions, althoug Britise hth h Governmen rules tha d this out for the present. Consequently they are concentrating e developmenoth n f 'cleao t n coal' power stations basen o d fluidised beds or coal gasification which can control emissions

of S0 and NO. By fitting additional topping cycles to give X

combine2 d cycle operation, they expec achievo t e cost lowe% s20 r than current stations with an efficiency improvement of 15% which will reduce C02 emissions by the same amount. In addition, they are taking the lead in an international study of the prospects for trapping C02 emissions and storing them underground. n sees importani ca ,t u i yo r bot e nucleas fo tA th h 8 .d an r coal industries to have access to good data on the environmental effect f differeno s t fuels. Public acceptability wile b l crucia r botfo lh industries e BritisTh o .to ht peoplno e ar e concerned about acid rai presentt na , sinc eemissionr mosou f to s o seat blot . ou w Global warmin y hav ma ga bigge e r impact, however, and it is difficult to see how this can be controlled without contributions world-wide from nuclear power.

90 MEDICAL ASPECT DEVELOPMENE TH F SO T ENVIRONMENTAON FA L DATA BASE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EXPERIENCN EI KEEPING POPULATION RELATED CANCER RECORDS

W. MEHNERT, S. HÄHNEL Institut für Strahlenschutzmedizin, Bundesministeriu Jugendr mfü , Familie, Fraue Gesundheitd nun , Berlin, Germany

Abstract

The paper relates to the medical aspects of the development of an environmental data base taking into account experienc keepinn i e g population related cancer records. Information on the data and associated problems for maintaining such data bases of the National Cancer Registr e presentedar y e forme datR C (NRCth n f ao o NR GD r .) cancer occurenc individualn ei groupr so s cover entire sth e territor formee th f yo r GDR; they can be combined with data on occupational or environmental exposure available from other institutions. Informatio radiation no n related healt hsouthere riskth n i s n districts (e.g. Saxony) are also available. Data were used for health planning,epidemiological research etc. It is concluded that in collecting data the different items should classifie cors da e item optionad san l items with appropiate priority.

Summary

It e seemcommonlb o t s y accepted that n therurgena s i e t neeo t d develop for practical and scientific purposes a data base for the comparative health and environmental impacts of various energy systems. e territorth e forme n th O f o ry GDR, there exist several sourcef o s data, which coul e linkeb d o suct d a dath a base, e e.gdatf th .o a the National Cancer Registry (NCR).

The NCR covers the entire territory of this region. A nationwide. obligatory system of cancer case reporting was established in the German Democratic Republic in 1953 to help optimize care for patients with malignant disease newll Al . y diagnosed cancer cases mus e reporte b te physicia th y b d r institutioo n n responsiblr fo e the patient's initial treatment. A report of a new case is completed and sent to the county cancer control agency (CCA) located in each of the 227 counties of this region. The form is reviewed and a copy forwarded to the NCR. Coding of data at the NCR is performed by specially trained clerks under continuous supervision e coursth n f codinI o e. d computean g r entry, data underg a varieto f checko y r completenesfo s d internaan s l consistency. Errors whic e identifiear h e correctear d y b d referenc e reportinth o t e gf necessary i form , or s y contactinb , g e reportinth r o A thg CC ephysician .

91 NCR data are used for health services planning, evaluation of medical servicer epidemiologicafo d an s l research r speciaFo . l investigations information n canceo s r occurenc n individuali e r o s e combinegroupb n ca s d with dat n occupationao a r environmentao l l exposures whic e collectear h y otheb d r institutions.

Medical aspects

Withi e recenth n t years question f environmentao s l hazards have raised growing interest to the public. Questions as air pollution drinking water quality, contaminatio f fooo n d with certain chemicals, dioxin, or in certain areas radon indoor air pollution e undear r discussio s risa n k factor r developinfo s g diseases, e.g. certain kind of cancers, genetic disorders and others.

Of course there still exist carcinogenic agents, to which humans have possibly been exposed sinc e e speciesorigith th e f o n , like ionizing and non ionizing radiation, mycotoxins. certain combustion product d probablan s y certain viruses, however industrializatio a serie d f an otheno s r events have beee th n origin of new hazards and of new environmental carcinogens. (Tomatis 1990). There is clear evidence for research in identifying certain categorie f environmentao s l risk factors, mos f whico t h possibly are amenable to primary prevention of diseases.

Ep idem io1ogy

A very useful tool to investigate these questions is epidemiology which used collected data in so called exposed versus unexposed populations or samples of populations in identifying such risk factors. To set up an epidemiologica1 study to identify certain categories of risk factors it is very helpful to use already existing data files, e.g. the data base of the National Cancer Registry (NCR).

National Cancer Registry and some other data bases to be used for epidemiologica1 research

The NCR covers the entire territory of the former GDR. A nationwide, obligatory system of cancer case reporting was establishe n 195i d o hel3t p optimize carr patientfo e s with malignant disease. All newly diagnosed cancer cases must be reporte e physiciath y b d r institutioo n n responsible th r fo e patient's initial treatment w cas ne s A complete.repori ea f o t d e count th d sen an o t yt cancer control agency (CCA) locate n eaci d h of the 227 counties of this region. The form is reviewed and a copy forwarde e s performeNCRi th R .o t NC Codind e d f th dato g t a by specially trained clerks under continuous supervision. In the course of coding and computer entry, data undergo a variety of check r completenesfo s d internaan s l consistency. Errors whice ar h identified are corrected by reference to the reporting forms or, if necessary, by contacting the CCA or the reporting physician.

92 The recorded information for each cancer case are: Personal identificatio f canceo n r patient Tumou r: site histology stage diagnosis therapy Further treatment Fol 1ow-up Individual anamnesis Farn i 1y anamnes i s Death, with autopsy result, if any. NCR data (more than 2 million collected cancer cases since 1953) e user healtar fo d h services planning, evaluatio f medicao n l services and for epidemiological research. For special investigations informatio n canceo n r occurenc n individuali e r o s groups can be combined with data on occupational or environmental exposures whic e collectear h y otheb d r institutions (Mehnert e t al. 1982, 1986, 1987; Stanecze 1988). al t .e k n principlI s possibli t i e o line t date th ke aNationa th bas f o e l Cancer Registry via the personal identification number (or by other person identification items e.g. name, first name, birthdate) to other existing data files (e.g. the mortality data files hel y the,Statb d e Statistical Office (mor0 e00 tha0 20 n cases a year), the workplace related diseases registry by the Central Institut f Occupationao e l Medicine e hospitath , l treated cases registry (so-called Randstreifenstatistik), the tuberculosis and the diabetes registry. Of course, it is in principle possible to link these data also to environmental related data files, as they are mentioned in the already presented pape y Zuppkb r d Grossean e ,r e.gai o t . pollution data (S02) collected in certain districts, looking for correlations to the incidence of lung cancer, as it was done by Dominok et al in the district of Cottbus with a huge brown coal minin d productioan g n industry.

Radiation related health risks e southerith n n districts e impacTh f radioactivito t n 198i e populatio9R th GD e f o yth f o n s recentlha y been published (Report SAAS -389summarizes i d )an d in the following table. The impact of natural sources of radioactivity for one person is about 3 mSv, mining contributed wit ho thit 0.0 sv 5mS figur d radoan e n indoo r pollutioai r n with abou 2 mSv2, t . In the southern districts in Saxony in the so-called Erzgebirge mining for silver and certain metals was carried out for centuries. In the more recent time period uranium mining has been e Wismuth don y tb e company e houseTh . n thii s s area were builp u t partl n restino y g materia f miningo l , connected wite hazarth h f o d indoor radon air pollution especially in the county of Aue and the old city of Schneeberg, which is worldwide known for the so- called disease "Schneeberger Lungenkrebs".

93 s strictlwa e t timi th e R n ye existencI perioGD th e f th o d f o e forbidden o investigatt , e relationshith e f uraniuo p m mining and/or radon indoo r pollutioai r n with lung cancer. Howeverw no , it is possible to investigate the scientific very interesting questions of lung cancer risk of a population living under very high radon indoo r pollutioai r n conditions over centurief o d an s course the lung cancer risk of a very high exposed miner population with mo-re than 150 WLM/ anno in the early fifthies, and the low exposed miner population in the late sixties and seventies with less than 6 WLM, compared with unexposed populations. The whole population of Wismut miners has been estimated by more 0 eve00 thar0 employe40 n d persons since 1946. Additionally, there is also a miner population to investigate, which was employed in the fluorite mining (Hahnel). The results of the study will more clarif e questionth y f modellino s g time-dosis-relationships. There we have already conducted several epidemio1ogical studies, at firs a correlatiot n study followe y case-controlb d d cohoran - t e usinstudiese studar th e gw yr datFo . ae regiona fileth f o s l registrie e nationath d an sl cancer registrye th e dat th n ,o a •personne e Wismuth f o tl company e healt th e dat th ,f o ha services of Wismut, the data of the regional tuberculosis and silicosis registries e deat, th dat f h o a certificates store y regionab d d an l national offices, the population figures of the State Statistical Office e workplac, th dat f o a e related diseases registry, datn o a the radioactiv. on e o impacs d an t However, hopefull t leasa y t there wil e establisheb l a datd a bank r peoplfo e expose daughters it o radot dd an n s eithe y mininb r g (occupation) or by living conditions ( indoor air pollution), connected to several other data banks, to get items of interest for further research within the international arena together with IARC /Lyon (WHO), NCI/USA and IEAE or other national and international institutions. e preliminarTh y questionaire e feasibilit, th use n i d y studs i y asking for: Name, first name, date of birth, (personal identification number), living status, adress, occupation, profession (Wismut d others)an , confounde s smokina r g habit, disease related anamnestic data (asbestosis, silicosis etc), cause of death coded by International Classification of Diseases, autopsy, death certificate only.

Problems

So far it is not clear, which of the registries or data files, mentioned above, will be able to run in the future, this especiall t cleayno because r th situation f o e o wilwh , l take responsibility (which authority, administrative unit etc.), who e registrie th e word lasf th t an leaso k no w tr ho tfo s wily pa l wil w e lawsinfluenceb lne e , th e.g y b e datd. th a protection law.

94 Recomendat ions 1. The experience of running a large cancer registry as it is the National Cancer Registry wit a hugh e amoun f dato t a shoule b d use o establist d e planneth h d data bas y IAEAb e , taking into account the needed medical items and the experience in handling large data files. e e collecteitemb Th o . t s2 d shoul e discusseb d d very carefully, e emphasizeth d princip shoul- e b d s muca s possiblet a h no s muca s urgent a h bu , t needed o morn , e 3. The items should be classified as core items and opional items, giving the a mpriorit y list e itemTh . s4 shoul e cleab d r define e ablb o et d eas o codt y e elsewhere.

References Tomat is, L.: New and old carcinogens - 15. UIC - CKongres s Hamburg, August 16-22, 1990, Part II: Lecture Abstracts, p. 773 J. Cancer Res Clin Oncol Suppl Vol 116 (1990) Mehnert, W.H.; Herold, H.-J.: Staneczek: W. , Cancer Incidence in the German Democratic Republic 1973-1977 in: Waterhouse ; Muir J. ,; Shanmugaratnam C. , ; Powe11K. , . J , eds. : Cancer Indidenc n Fivi e e Continents, Volum, IV e IARC Scientific Publications No. 42, Lyon 1982 Mehnert, V.H.; Staneczek, W.: Geschwu1sterkrankungen in: Tellkamp.F.; Hellmund . (Hrsg.)W , : Ärztliche MeldepflichteR DD r de n i n Verlag Vold Gesundheitun k , Berlin 1986, 75-97 Mehnert, W.H.; Beckmann ; StaneczekL. , Möhner; W, , : M. , National Cancer Registry in: Director f Computeo y r Systems use Cancen i d r Hegistries IARC Monograf (Ed.: Maack, H.R.; Parkin, D.M.), Lyon 198 6. 185-18S 7 Mehnert, V.H.; Bernstein ; HaasP. , , J.F.; Staneczek. W . Cancer Incidenc e Germath n i ne Democratic Republic 1978-1982 in: Muir, C.; Waterhouse, J.; Mack, T.; Whelan, S.; in collaboration with Smans, M., Casset, F., eds.: Cancer Indidenc n Fivi e e Continents, Volum, V e IARC Scientific Publication, 88 . No s Lyon 1987

95 Staneczek, W., Mehnert, W.H.: German Democratic Republic, National Cancer Registry, 1976-1980 in: Parkin, D.M., Stiller, C.A , Drapper, G J., Bieber, C.A Terracini Youn, . B , g J.L. eds.: International Incidence of Childhood Cancer IARC Scientific Publications No 87, Lyon 1988, S. 243-246 Zuppke Grosse, U. , : M. , Data Base Concerning Environmental Impac f Energo t y Generatio e Territor th e Forme n th o n f ro y German Republic. Paper presented at the Technical Committee Meeting on "Developmen a Dat e Comparativf ao tth Basr fo e e Healtd an h Environmental Impact f Variouo s s Energy Systems IAEA -Vienna . Octobe/ 19 Austri - . r 15 a199 0 Hahn: S. , e1 Auswertungen epidemiologischer Untersuchungen über die Lungenkrebshaufigkei i Bergarbeiterbe t n (Literaturstudie) SAAS - Report - in Druck Staatliche r Atomsicherheifü t Am s d Strahlenschutun t z Umwe 11rad i oaktivitat Jahresbbencht 1989 Report SAAS - 389, 44 S.. 1990

96 ECOLOGICAL PAY-BACK TIME FOR PRODUCTS AND ENERGY SAVINGS

P. HOFSTETTER Institut für Energietechnik, Technische Hochschule Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Abstract

The concept of ecological pay-back time for products is introduced. It is concluded that energy saving may not always lead to environmental protection. Products and processes adopte r environmentadfo l conservatio alsy onma have environmental impacts which should be taken into account. It is also suggested that for the production of materials and development of activities in the field of energy conservation we need better environmental data and methods for comparative risk assessment for different products, energd an y fuel cycles.

Contents What are environmental factors? ecological balances? ecological profiles? Money Pay-Back Tune? Energy Pay-Back Time? Ecological Pay-Back Time? Some examples - Compact fluorescent lamps - refrigerator - energy savings from the standard to a zero energy house

Definitions First I have to define some terms. Chemical burden of atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphère, radiation (radioactive electro-magnetism, UV , , visible), resources (including energy), noise, waste heat, water household, surface burden, vibration otherd callee san sar d environmental factors anusualle dar y measure physicadn i l units (Fig.l). An ecological balance contains not aggregated environmental data of as many environmental factor possibls sa whole th r eefo life cycle (construction, transport disposald producan e e th f us , )o t or process. The aggregation and assessment of ecological balance establish the ecological profile.

From Mone Ecologicao yt l Pay-Back Time The money pay-back time is an often used method to evaluate how many years it takes till the invested mone payeys i d back trough saving profitr so s resulting from investments.

»* n n i T- invested money [$] r , Money Pay-Back Tunsaye e= d Of gaine] [a d m^ney\m

This Pay-Back Time has to be shorter than the life of the investment

97 hutrun filing, •odo-«oonomlc •ftoets

Fig.l: Environmental factors

Wdefinn e energca e eth y pay-back tim determininy eb lonw takegt gi ho s energtile lth y investea dn i certain energy saving projec amortizeds i t thif .I s amoun timf o t shortes ei r tha life neth e timth f eo project, the saving is effective. „ r> i T- invested energy for energy saving product or process[MJ] ,, Energ y nPay-Back Time =——————save substituter do d energy [MJ/a]———M ^

To save from the ressource energy, the energy pay-back time has to be shorter than the life of the investmen energe th r ytfo saving. energmonee Evee th th d f ni y yan pay-back tim bote ear h shorte investmentre tha th lif e f neth o , this shouldn't lead to conclusions about the pollution of the environment Ecological Pay-Back Time = invested pollutio environmene th f no producr fo t procesr o t s [Eco-Points] saved pollution during the operation of the product or process [Eco-Points/a] [a] If the ecological pay-back time for the investment planned is shorter than the life of the investment as spean significanwella ca f ke o ,w t produc processr to . Whil calculatioe eth energ e monee th th d f yno y an pay-bac k tim relativels ei y easy (althouge hth energy investe goodn i d s isn't always known) ecologicae th , l pay-back time seeme b o t s »incalculable. wane I w fcalculat o t ecologicae eth l pay-back tim firse ew t hav defino et standarea e d th cas d ean proposed "better" case. After evaluating the specific differences between this two cases, we have to ecologican a pup u t side have l on epollutiobalancee w e th environmen e th th n f nO .o e th y b t

98 construction, usedisposad (I.e.,e an th )f lenergo y savin othege productth n r o side d have ,an ,e w eth saved pollution because less energy has to be transformed aggregatn ca e Ifw e this pollutio environmene th f no t intindexe oon , therprobleo n s ei mcalculato t e the Ecological Pay Back Time. In reality it is not easy to do this because the radioactive radiation, the emissioaddede e havx us b th f land eo o ed t NO .an f ,Ther no some ear e method thesd ad eo st different pollution factors thest bu , e approache oftee sar n arbitrary. Here some example ecologicaf so l balance ecologicae th d san l pay-back tim addede ear . Examples examplel Inal s different pollution factor aggregatee sar d immissiowite hele th hf th p o n limits. This method has disadvantages like all others, too. In one study, I looked at a compact fluorescent lamp, which will replace an incandescent lamp. Fluorescent lamp foue fivso us t r e times lesmore sar t electricite complebu e us contaid n yi x an n mercury. The question here was: is the compact fluorescent.lamp, which burned over 8*000 hours and gave 600 lumen light, better than incandescent lamps regarding energy and environment ? resulte Th s were tha fluorescenta t lam pollutiopenergr f polluto saveai n t d ca lo yt an sa enbu water and soil more than incandescent lamps dependin type lampf th eo highee n go Th . r expenditurf eo energconstructioe th r yfo fluorescena f no t lam payeps i d use-hoursbac0 6 kn i Ecologicae .Th l Pay- Back Tun 290o t fro s ei 0 m use-hours24 electricitf o , dependiny wa e yth productionn go n ca e .W conclude, that, wit hypothesesl hal tendencialls i t ,i y bette instalo rt l fluorescent lamps. The electricity consumption of refrigerators becomes lesser with the years of development and the questio wheters ni shoule ,w d replac refrigeratord eol s which stil theio ld r wor wheter ko shoule rw d wait till the refrigerator is unreparably. In one scenario, I have calculated with a refrigerator life-span otheyeare 5 1 th f rn syeari o 0 scenario 1 fd san o ove perio ra years 0 6 eacr refrigeratof dw o .Fo hne r addeI d environmenta constructiod an l onepollutioe w on ne . Betweed e disposar nol th n fo e th f no l year5 1 d scalculateI thian 0 s1 pollutioe dth environmen e th f no electricity tb y production resula s .A t there was a small advantage for the 15-year scenario because in 20 years we have refrigerators with very little electricity consumption but about the same cost for construction. In a last example, we looked at the investment for energy savings in a zero-energy house. Starting from a standard house we add one glass and two silver layers to the windows, we chosed a thicker isolation (0.15 W/m2K), installe hear ai tn drecoverya collectorn su ,a larg,a e reservoi watea d rran heat recovery. In fig.2 the saved and the invested energy for each means of energy saving are given in bars energe .Th y pay-back tim thae givees se i t evern digitsn ca i e y mean.W energf so y savings i payed back withi life-spae n producth e th f no t

ERZ Energetische Rückzahlzei] t[a

Haus Wädenswil

Abwasser-WRG

Speicher

Kollektor

G LüftunWR t gmi

Wärmedämmung

Fenster

-90000 -70000 -50000 -30000 -10000 10000 30000 links: Investierte Energie [kWh] rechts: gesparte Energie [kWh/a]

Fig.2: Energ bacy ypa k time fo zerra o energy hous Wädenswiln ei , Switzerland

99 Now we can calculate the same with the air pollution from construction and disposal. In Fig.3 the Pay Bac pollutior ai k e Tim thath e isolatio e r reservoigivens e se i tth e fo th n digitsn d ca i ne an r.W possibly pollute the air more than the saved energy. These results are extremly vague because of unreliable data and problems of aggregation.

LRZ Luftrückzahlzei] [a t

Haus Wàdenswil

Abwasser-WRG

Speicher

Kollektor

G LüftunWR t gmi

Wärmedämmung

Fenster . ^—^ __^_ ^—^— —— —— —— —^— —— ——— i^__ ___ — -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 0 -2000 links: investierte Luftbelastung [Mio.mS] rechts: gesparte Luftbelastung [Mio.m3/a]

bacy Pa k : pollutio r tim3 ai g f ezero a Fi r onfo energy hous Wädenswiln ei , Switzerland

Conclusions Energy Saving is not always environment protection. The pollution of environment by products and processes derives to a large part from energy conversion. productior Fo materiaf no energd lan y conversio neee nw d better environmental data with comparable limits of system. Method assessmenr sfo differenf to t products, effects energr o , y system sufficient no e sar t enougo ht draw final conclusions.

REFERENCES

Frischknecht R., Hofstetter P., Walder E. •Forschungsprojekt; Inhalt-Randbedingungen-Vorgehen', Projekt -«Umweltbelastung durch die End- und Nutzenergiebereitstellung>, Arbeitspapier 1/91, . EnergiesystemeLabf . ZüricH ET ,h 1991 Hofstetter P. •Bewertungsmodell r Oekobilanzenefü " Projekt d Ende un hdi - , Arbeitspapier 2/91, Lab. f. Energiesysteme, ETH Zürich 1991

Sute , HofstetteP. r . P r "Die ökologische Rückzahldauer; Ein Instrument der Umwelttechnfc", SIA Nr.49,7.12.1989

Hofstette. a) t e . P r 'Die ökologische Rückzahldauer der Mehrinvestitionen in zwei Nullenergiehäuser', Ueberarbeitung einer interdisziplinären Semesterarbei ZürichH ET r , Laboratoriude n ta Energiesystemer mfü i 1991,Ma

Hofstetter P. "FCKW-Einsatz und Entsorgung in der Kälte- und Klimatechnik mit ökologischem Vergleich heutiger Kühlschranksysteme und Ausblick auf alternative Kältesysteme*, im Auftrag des Bundesamtes für Umwelt Wald und Landschaft, Bern und des Amtes für Gewässerschutz und Wasserbau (AGW) des Kantons Zürich, November 1990

100 ASSESSING AND MANAGING HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS FROM ENERGY COMPLEX INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS IN THE ZAGREB AREA

N. MALBASA . KISIZ , C Institut za Elektroprivredu, Zagreb, Yugoslavia

Abstract

Complex industrial systems have associated health and environmental risks. In order to evaluate such risks, data on environmental/health impacts should be collected and integrated into the structure of a data base. In this paper the investigation of the possibility of organizing an information support system to assist studies for a risk management projec Zagren i t b are presenteds ai .

As initial phase in risk management it is necessary to form a unique register (cadastre) l existinoal f g hazardous activitie substanced san investigatee th n si d area. Additionaly, registea pollutantr ai f Zagreo re th n si b area will include informatio increasee th n no d concentration f sulfuso r dioxid solid ean d particles. Evaluating emission categoriey sb s wil presentine b l g result tabulan si r form, allowing accesee datb o at modely db vien si w of short term forecasts of emissions.

I PROJECT BACKGROUND

Ove lengthiea r r perio f timdo senscountryn en worldwideca ow necessite a r on , ou n weli s a o ,s yt a l identify, asses managd san e risks arising from energ d othean y r complex industrial activities, aiming to reduce harmful effects on the environment as well as on health of the population.

Industrial growth is essential for upgrading the standard of living in all countries. In relation to that growth, it is inevitable to build refineries, thermal power plants and other large industrial objects, that all may produce damaging effects in various ways to human environment Apart from daily emissions into air and waters there is a hazard from occasional malfunctions of plants, as well as leakages of toxic, explosive, corrosive and radioactive substances which may result with direct threat to life and health of employees, as well as of the population residing in the vicinity of such objects.

Numerous significant industrial accidents of the last decade (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernoby!) have in a dramatic manner impose necessite dth bettef yo r contro riske th industria sf n i o l l areas.

Experience acquire faro ds , especiall countryr ou yn i , regardin e implementatiogth risf no k assessment and risk management techniques is mostly related to the project by project analysis. Quite often the sole basis for the overall risk assessment was the analysts of only one medium, or even the analysis of onl pollutine yon g substance.

Interactions of various types of risk and various sorts of plants were mostiy omitted from the analysis. Thu e resultth s performef o s d analyses were often inadequat d incompletean e . Risk reduction costs were not, on principle, based upon a rational fundaments. Due to that, some projects suf-

101 fered from too excessive requirements, while others, bearing much higher risks, were treated extremely mild. As mostly new objects are being studied more intensively, re-assessment of existing objects and related risks,'as well as analyses of possible corrective actions, mainly were not conducted.

Having that in mind, four renowned international organizations: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Internationa! Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). World Health Organization (WHO d Unite)an d Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) decide joio t dn resource initiatd san devele eth - opmen projeca f o t t dealin f integrao e gus wit l e (regionalhth ) approac riso ht k managemente Th . project should identify impact environmene th population e healto se t th th f o hd tan , along with socio- economical effects which have to be considered when dealing with problems usually related to industrial growth.

The Project is supposed to last six years. Within that period four main tasks should be realized:

* to produce 6 to 8 case studies covering various areas of the world, in which methods and approaches to risk management in industrial zones would be tested and implemented

* to produce and publish a handbook containing instructions on applied method and approach

* to establish and update information data-base, along with the data to be used in regional case studies concerning risk assessmen managemend tan t

* toactivelypursuetheimplementationofintegralapproach torisk managemen practicen i t , wite hth special emphasi education so trainind nan professionaf go l teams.

II AREA OF ZAGREB AS A BASIS FOR CASE STUDY

A proposal of international agencies came as a result of their numerous previous activities. Experts from Institut za elektroprivredu successfully participated in some of them. That helped the Zagreb Project to be accepted. Advantages of Zagreb as an area for case study come from a very complex energy system and at the same time being a strong industrial area. But still, it is an area with over 60.000 hectares of forests, some of them ranking among prettiest in Croatia, and also having huge reserves of excellent quality drinking water. On the other hand it is an area of many unresolved munici- l problemspa , wit pollutee hth d river Sav witd ahan hundred illegaf so l waste disposal sites alst ,bu o with quality manpower resources, with solid grounds for establishing necessary data bank and with required infrastructur activitier efo s regarding realizatio studye th f no .

Fundamental information concerning the Zagreb Project were presented on Paris conference in 1986, while the official presentation of the Project took place in early 1989 (Athens, April 17-21 ). A conferenc Schiedaen i m (Holiand), October 9-13,1989 provide fundamente dth Projecr sfo t revision. The projec revises twa d expectes positivel wa formall e t i b d do t yan y accepted (October.1990)e th n O . level of interested international organizations two documents were published in the meanwhile (New York 1987, Vienna 1988).

102 The Italian Government i.e. their state association ENE A showed interest to participate in the Project So did some other countries too. The Project is registered with IAEA through special procedure, and as outstandingly priority research also with Ministr Sciencr yfo Croatif eo a

Prio activatino rt g international resources s expectei t ,i ensuro dt e initial funds fro mdomestia c partner. In that sense, a proposal for project task (Register of Hazardous Activities and Preliminary Risk Iden- tification Projec e Phase th f th o s give s eti )a 1 Attachmennn i . t1

III PRIM AR Y OBJECTIVES

The genera long-terd an l m objective proposee th f so d projec asseso t e managd ar t san healte eth h and the environmental risks of energy and some industrial facilities in the Zagreb area, as well as to promote, appl establisd yan h developed practical result otheo st r industrialized part Croatif so d aan Yugoslavia. Additionally, the project will help to achieve several immediate objectives and outputs i.e. to eliminate problems which have adversely affecte qualite d th rang d yan previouf eo s investigations. Especially in the field of low probability/high consequence events that could lead to emergency situations, the expected objective includes criteria for emergency response plans and implementing procedures.

IV PURPOSE OF THE PROJECT

Purpose of the Project, including other similar activities, is to contribute to determining optimal solutions of risk management to improve knowledge, skills and experience of certain public services, as well as to increase institutional capability to react adequately in case of serious accident in industrial plants.

Final purpos Projece th suppor o f t e o s ti t rather than hinder, industrial growt developmend han t with maximum contro managemend an l riskf to s such development brings along.

The expected immediate outputs of the Project are:

developmen practicaf to l applications of risk managemen hazard tan d control that woul valuable db en i the Zagreb are othen wels i a a s a lr countryparte th f so ;

improvement of the safety policy and development of local expertise in the field of risk management;

establishment of optimal allocation of resources for risk reduction.

V EXPERT COLLABORATION ON THE PROJECT

The Project wilperformee b l collaboration di f severano l institution r theis(o r sections followss )a :

- Institu elektroprivredua tz , Zagreb (IE) - The Institute for Health Research, Zagreb (IMI) - Ruder Boekovi6 Institute, Zagreb (RB) Healte Th - h Protection Institut Cite Zagref th yo f eo b - INA - Research & Development Institute, Zagreb (INA) - State Meteorology Services (RHMZ)

103 Research team is so far planned to consist mainly of the following experts:

Name Company Closer field of work Education

E I Niko Malbaèa project coordination mech. D . .Ph eng. Dubravko Matani<5 IE steam boilers Mech. D . .Ph eng. Alica Bauman IMI rad. protection Ph. D. ehem. eng. Mirjana Gentilizza IMI air quality monitoring chemistr. D . Ph y vladimira Vadic IMI air pollution Ph ehem. .D . eng. I IM Jadranka Kovac rad. protection Ph. D. ehem. eng. Nada Filipovié-VincekoviB R d colloi surfac& d e Ph. D. chemistry NadB R a Horvatincié 3 analysiH- d an C-1s2 Ph. D. chemistry Vlasta Tomasid RB sorption and migration processes Ph ehem. .D . eng. A MarijIN a vrdoljak hydrocarbons analysis Ph. D.biology Vladimir Jelavié IE risk assessment M. S. mech. eng. Zdravko Muzek IE energy systems mechM. .s . eng. Berislav nadinié IE nuclear systems eng. M. S. mech. eng. Hrvoje Kunaj IE cooling systems M. S. mech. eng. E MladeI n Petriôec hydrotechnics civiM. .S l eng. B R Nikola Maâié radionucl. migr. modeling M. S. physics Inès Krajcar-BroniB R c H-3 measurement M. s. physics Bozena Plavljanid INA environmental prot. in l industrthoi e y ehemM. .S . eng. Edita Lonöar RHMZ dispersion in air M. S. meteorol. Duäan Trninié RHMZ hydrology hidrologM. .S y zoran Kisid IE thermal pollution B. S. mach. eng. Zeljko PostruSin IE air pollution modeling mechB. s . eng. Miroslav Juretié IE data base prep. mechB. .s . eng. E I -Slaven Trputec data base prep. B. s. elect, eng. E I Boris Stajer civil structures civiB. S l eng. Ljiljana Aleksié IE hydrology B. s. civil eng. Filoména AnuSié INA water treatment ehemB. s . eng. Sonja Vidiâ RHMZ meteorology B. s. meteorol. MarijaE I n Sarajlija data base prep. mech. eng. tech.

The list is not exhaustive. It should be completed in the course of the Project (probably with specialists from certain industrial plant witd shan interested public service professionald san s from republicitd yan c administrative bodies).

VI PROJECT MANAGEMENT

suggestes i t I d tha Zagree tth b city government, actin representativa s ga publif eo c e intereststh n i d an , Governmenname th f eo Republie th f to f Croatiaco , takes specia Projecl e carth f eo t becausf o s i et i special importance to Zagreb. It is also suggested that a committee for project leadership is formed

104 under presidenc Presidene th f yo Citf o t y Governmen persoa r t(o n authorize him)y db , consistins a g representativee welth f o l f interesteo s d Ministrie Republie th f o s f Croatia co , competent projec- co t ordinator and the representatives of other interested parties.

Main dutie Committee th f so e would comprise:

* monitoring the Project realization * conveyin conclusion e resulte th g th d authoritiese an th so t s * establishin mechanisme th g r realizatiosfo f nspecifio c activities accruing from Project results * initiation of changes in the legislation and organizing some activities of public interest * Project promoting in media, as well as Project results * taking care of financing the Project and financial monitoring * communication with interested foreign governmenta internationad lan l organization aspectl al n so s of Projece th t excep specifir tfo c professional, expert problems * contacts with administrativ regulatord ean y bodies

VII FINANCING

IAE s granteAha d r thi230,00fo s D Project0US , mainl obtaininr fo y g equipmen experd ten t support That enhances acquiring additional financial and other support from International organizations, along with establishing certain bilateral arrangements (e.g. with Italy).

Initial funds necessar startinr yfo Projece gth expectee ar t becomo t d e available from domesti- cre source shora sn i t time. Several Zagreb companie preparee sar assisdo t financinn ti g (e.g Elece Th .- tric Power Utility, INA-Oi Chemicad an l l Industry, Waste Incineration Plant), although inevitable institutional fram co-ordinatind ean g rol citf eo y (municipal Republid )an c bodie stilpresent s si - no l ex n ti pected, full extent

VIII DIRECT BENEFIT CITE ZAGREF YTH O R SFO B FROM THE PROPOSED PROJECT

Surve necessarf yo y activitie Zagree th sn i b area thacompatible tar proposee th eo t d Projec presents i t - ed below. Somewhat more detailed project tasks for certain activities are given in Attachments 1,2,3 and 4 to this document

A) IDENTIFICATIO ANALYSID NAN HAZARDOUF SO S TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESSED SAN SUBSTANCES

- Registe Potentiallf ro y Hazardous Activities

- Lis Hazardouf to s Substances - Inflammable Liquid Gased san s -Explosive Substances - Toxic Liquids and Gases - Toxic Solid Waste and Combustion Products

105 - Impac Risd tan k Assessment - Hazards Identification - Potential Damage - Hazards Probability Quantification (concerning identified scenarios) - Risk Management Programme

POLLUTANTR AI ) B S EMISSION

- Cadastre of Emission from Energy and Power Production Plants - Cadastr Emissiof eo n from selected Process Industries - Emission from Transportation - Technical and Technological Performances of Air Pollution Control and Prevention Equipment

) C MONITORING SYSTEM

- Air Quality Monitoring in Zagreb (revision and modernization of existing system, central data bank organization)

- Surfac Ground-waterd ean s Quality Monitoring (the tributariesSave th ad rivean r , Jarun lake, ground- waters, precipitation)

D) MUNICIPAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL WASTE

- Waste Disposal (deposits) - Waste Incineration Plant - Cadastre of Water Pollutants (fluid effluents) - Municipa Technologicad an l l Waste Waters Purification

) E PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

- Technical Reviews of Vehicles Pollutior Ai - n Control - Sulphur and Lead Content Reduction in Fuels - Tax and Sanctional Policy in Service of Environmental Protection

F) ACTIVITIES OF ADMINISTRATIVE BODIES

- Legislation (regulations) Standards and Criteria in the field of environmental protection - Managing Industrial Risks - Inspections and Supervisions - Issuing Licences and Approvals

106 G) SECONDARY BENEFIT ZAGREE TH R BSFO AREA RESULTING FRO ACTIVITIEE M PROJECTH E TH N SO T

- International Expertis Assistancd ean e - Local and Foreign Training of Project Staff - Visits to Appropriate Facilities and Institutions in Certain Large European Urban Areas (e.g. Rotterdam mann i s i y details very simila Zagrebo rt ) - Equipment and Software Procurement - Possibilit Financinr yfo g Specific Activitie meany sb Internationaf so ! Credit Fundd san s (e.g. World Bank, interested countries)

Project activities would considerably contribut betteeo t mord an re efficient solvin namef go d problems, while assistanc internationaf eo l organizations shoul e neglectedb alst ono d (expertise, equipmen softward an t e procurement study tours) totae . th Hal lf Projecvaluo e f th f eo t than i s i t almost every detail applicabl Zagreen i b (no mentioo tt n secondary benefit additionaf so l educatiof no our experts, and personnel training of our expert organizations, as well as of city and Republic services), plannes i directle b do t y contributed from international organizations.

Nevertheless, the main objective of the Project is not only to produce the study and adequate instructions and to train the manpower. Its basic value is in insisting on actual implementation of its result practicen si n specifii , c activitiea Therefor e fundamentath e l prerequisit internationar fo e l support to this Project is the active participation of competent government bodies, thus obtaining a certain guarantee that the Project shall be of actual benefit. Should that be the case, the benefit for Zagreb woul muce db h larger because outstandingly inexpensive funding woul available db e from the World Bank and the like institutions having the interest in financing ecological programmes dealing with communal, industrialand, in general, urban infrastructure.

n thaI t case subjece th , f thato t programmes could include purificatio Zagref no b sewage waters, sanatio f Jakusevano c waste dump, risk reductio relation i energo nt industriad yan l plants, ecological monitoring system etc.

Project results shall provide the guarantee to foreign and domestic partners and to the city government ensuring the maximum positive effects as per unit of money invested in ecological programmes communad an l syste citye th . mf o

107 Attachment 1

REGISTER OF EXISTING HAZARDOUS ACTIVITIES AND SUBSTANCES IN THE AREA OF ZAGREB. WITH PRELIMINARY RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS

As initial phas integraf eo l approac assessmeno ht d managemenan t healtf o t environmentad han l risks from energy and other complex industrial systems in the Zagreb area (and also of the project with the same name) necessars i t i , foro yt muniqua e cadastre (register l existinal f o ) g hazardous activities substanced an observee th n si d area.

The register should recor l potentialldal y hazardous activities divide basio tw cdn i groups :

- stationary facilities (i.e. hazardous activities restricte particulaa o dt r aread an ) - transport of hazardous substances.

Prior to that detailed checklist of such activities should be formed.

The grou stationarf po y facilities should primarily comprise:

- extensive fuel (coal, fuel oil, natural gas) storages and/or processing facilities e.g. thermal power plants (combined heapowed tan r production plants, waste incineration plant), refinerie d storan s- ages, fuel delivery stations, etc. - extraction, production or distribution of gas, -productio processind nan specifif go c chemical products (e.g. synthetic resins, plastic othed san r synthetics, paints and pigments, drugs and other pharmaceuticals, detergents and others), - productio non-specifif no c chemical product materialw ra d san s (inorgani organid can c products, industrial gase others)d san , - pipeline lonr sfo g distance transpor othefuef d to an l r hazar dous substances, - other industries (food, leather, paper, glass, rubber, metal workin electronicd gan othersd san ) - production and/or storage of explosives, - extensive cooing installations, - various public places and utilities (hospitals, swimming pools, skating-rinks, waterworks, water treatmen sewagd tan e pumping stations somd )an e other activities.

Mobile activities comprise road , rived raian lr transpor f flammableo t , toxic, corrosive, explosiv- ra d ean dioactive substances.

For each registered activity in the analyzed area relevant basic information shall be given as to identify the type of potential hazard:

- categor activite th f yo y (typ transportf eo , storag stationarr eo y processing plant)

- for stationary facilities

addrese th * s genera* l descriptio activite th f no y * hazardous substances (used, processed, stored or produced)

108 productio* wastf no e substances, emissio harmfuf no l waste substance wated an r r ai o st interna* l transpor hazardouf to s substances facilite th substance e f ,o yth flot f wo ou r o sn i * land-use in the surroundings of the facility (including population and staff distribution, existing traffic pattern intensitd san y etc.)

r transporfo - t

* type of hazardous substance (UN-number) and quantity * typ transporf eo t transpor* t routes (with sourc destinatiod ean n points)

Whenever possible, appropriate quantitative data and information about activities in question shall be presented, and sources shall be referenced (e.g. project or operation documentation, various permits issue administrativy db e bodies, etc.).

In the course of registering, all relevant information and registers that exist at different places in Zagreb (institutions, companies, public offices, authorities and the like) shall be collected, systema- tizeused dan d adequatel unique inpus th y a r efo t register .

By forming the register of hazardous activities and substances, hazard identification for the area in question shal performede b l , including also groupin hazardf go y frequencsb probabilitr o y f yo detrimental effects:

- continuous and/or periodic (occasional) emissions of hazardous substances i.e. routine emissions - accident relativelf so y high probability (i.e. accidents thaalreadd tha y occurred beed ha n d regisan , - tered), low-probability/high-consequenc- e accidents

Risk analysis and preliminary risk assessment for each registered hazardous activity shall be -performe y includindb g also rough estimate l possiblal f so e type f consequenceso humansr fo s , biosphere, facilitie economyd san . That preliminary risk assessmen necessars ti rankinr yfo regisf go - tered activitie settind san g prioritie further sfo rfina e analysith l o rist kp squantificatio(u managed nan - ment).

Based on previously collected data, size and capacity of facilities together with type and quantity of hazardous substance direcs sa t indicator takee b o nt risf e sinto kar o account when setting priorities.

Hazards identification and risk analysis and assessment shall be performed separately for stationary activitie transpord san hazardouf o t s substances.

Register of hazardous activities and substances shall complete so called "ecological data bank" (containing dat d awate an fror rai m pollutants emission registers, meteorological, hydrological and bio-ecological data, data on population distribution, health and socioeconomic characteristics populatione oth f , etc.). Tha essentias ti l prerequisit risr efo k managemen largn ti e urba industriad nan l centres.

109 Attachmen2 t

A CADASTRE OF AIR POLLUTANTS IN THE AREA OF CITE ZAGREF YTH O B

1. PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE RESEARCH

An awarenes neee th securf do st o healthea y environment dictate establishmene sth efficienn a f o t t pollutio napplicatioe controth d an f lsuc no h protective measures that would ensur appropriate th e e hygienic and health conditions of life on a long-term basis. In Zagreb, the closest attention should be paid to the increased concentrations of sulfur dioxide and solid particles. Unless the problem of air pollution is approached and dealt with systematically, it could soon become one of the major restrictive factors in the socio-economic development of the city.

Bearing the above in mind it is recommended that a cadastre of all pollutants in the area of Zagreb be compile a basi s a dc prerequisit r implementatiofo e e controf effortno th ensurd o t s an l e cleaner cadastre Th air. emissionf eo followine th intendesn s i i e g us areas r dfo :

* Improvement of the existing situation.

Through variation of different technical/technological and organizational measures it is possible to establish those achieving the optimal effect

* Supplement to the measurement of ground-level concentrations

The measuring of ground-level concentrations can be applied to a limited number of pollutants and at a restricted number of stations. If the emission is known, the concentration may be calculated at any * Zagree pointh n ti b urban are meany ab dispersioa f so n mode meteorologicad an l l parametere sTh calculated concentration serv y basia ss ma e a s from whic selecho t chiee tth f pollutants establiso ,t ha distributio stationf nsupplemeno o t d san t measurement takinexistine th gn i g stations.

* Evaluatin emissioe gth harmfuf no l substances.

Yugoslavi abous ai sigo t internationa n na l conventio reductioe th n o n S0f no emissio unti% l30 y nb

1993 in relation to 1980. The emission cadastr2 e will define the contribution to the overall figure at the leve Yugoslaviaf o l d througan , h that will forese obligatione th e s resulting conventionfroe th m .

* Planning city development whilst at the same time meetino th? required air quality standards

Through simulatio pollutiof no n from existin futurd gan e sources implementatioy ,b mathematicaf no l models of distribution and of meteorology it is possible to evaluate the air quality in the monitored area, as well as the contribution of each source separately. In combination with other factors it is possibl seleceo t mose tth t suitable energy structuroptimue th d mean protection measures froe mth economic and the ecological point of view (method of reducing emission, site selection, selection efficiencd an f purificatioyo n appliances, etc.).

110 internationae Th l organization UNEP/IAEA/UNIDO/WHe th f so procese th n i implementinf e sOo ar ga projecassessmene th r overalfo te th industriaf e o tl th ris n ki l are f Zagreao b know 'Assessins na d gan Managin Healte g th Environmenta d han l Risk from Energ Othed an y r Complex Industrial Systemn si the Zagreb Area". This project would cover all risks originating from possible accidents and from normal situations which involve riskr pollutionai f so . Initiatin compilatioe gth emission a f no n cadastre would enhanc approvae eth internationaf o l necessard ai l projece th r yquestionfo n i t .

Z RESEARCH CONTENTS

2.1. Data CoJiecting

The cadastre will compris l pollutioal e n sources installewitn a h d thermal output exceeding certain speciallvalue b o e(t y specified). Assessmen f emissioo t n from those sourcee s th wilcarrie e n b l o t dou basi surveya f so relation I . n with that followine th , g data collectedwile b l :

a) the type of fuel used chemicaa ) b l analysi fuef so l quantite c)th fuef yo l use technologicadn i l processes period) d operatiof so availabilitd nan planf yo t e) characteristics of smoke exhausts

Assessment of emission will also be carried out for sources of pollution with thermal output below the specified value but on the basis of thermal requirements, samples and statistical data

Source highef so r emission shal ratee b l poins da t sources lowed an , r émission source surfacs sa e sources. The emission cadastre will contain all data concerning both point and surface sources. The surface sources will be presented through quadrants covering the area of the dty.

Assessmen f emissioo t n from fire boxe technologicad san l pro-cesse mosse th wil carriee r tb lfo t dou

frequently occurring pollutants solid :dan SO^X particlesNO .

Assessmen emissiof o t roay nb d traffi vehicle basie th c th f wil carriee so n b lo structure t dou , intensity

of traffic, aerial distribution of traffic and information on the sales of fuel. Emissions of NO SO2, b wile determinedP b l d an COH C ,. Depending upo resulte nth s obtained, road traffic emission will be presented either in the form of line or surface emission sources.

A simplified schematic diagram outlinin procedure gth emissioe th f eo n cadastr presentees i Figdn i . .1

Ill EMISSION TYPE OF CALCULATION CADASTRE OF SOURCES SOURCE OF EMISSION POLLUTANTS

i CUP Plants ___ Point - Data obtained Point sources Block boilerhouflce sourceo y measurinb g House bol lerrooms x kJ/ > s - Surveys \. 1- X 1 Industi lal furnaces 2. Haste incinerators Individual and floor 3. f ireboxeo Surface sources

1- Technological processes Surface - Energy needs S 2. Chemical industry •ourcea - Statist, data Building industry < x kJ/s - Surveys 3. / Traffic e b o t s i x specified

Figur. e1

2.2. Calculation of Emission

Point sources

Sources for which results of emission measuring will not be known: the emission will be estimated basie th f datso n o a obtained throug hsurveya . Each point sourc cadastre th en i e wildefinee b l y db -the following dat minimas aa l input

- name and address - mapped positio sourcf no e - position establishe Gaus-Kreugey db r coordinates - source thermal output (kJ/s) - typcharacteristicd ean fuef so l used - regim dailyf eo , weekl annuad yan l operation - number of stacks, their heights and diameters temperatur- speed ean fluf do e gases

- monthly and annual emission of SO^ NOX and of solid particles - list and quantities of other significant pollutants emission type- efficiencd san devicef yo emissior sfo n reduction

poine Alth l t sources shal indicatee b l mapa n d.o Categorizatio f sourceno s wilcarriee n b o l t dou basie th f physicaso l characteristic f sourcesso purpos emissione e th ,sourcth e th d f eo e an .

112 Surface sources

A proces f determinino s g emission e stationarth f so y energy sourcedividee b y dsma w intfe oa phases:

- assessmen f thermato l requirement individuay sb l city zones - defining the structure of fuel consumption and the characteristics of energy utilization - calculation of emission by individual city zones - control of emission assessment by a global approach method - presentation of the structure of the fuel used and of the emission by individual municipalities as well as overall - presentation of the aerial emission distribution on a city map

The city are aquadrantf o wil coveret e b l ne a y dsb representing surface emissions. Quadrant dimensions wildeterminee b l basie th f variation so n d o fuee th l f consumptioso n structure r eac- Fo . hho mogenous surface emission sourc determine e followine b e th o t minimums a gs ha d a :

- coordinate surface th f so e source (quadrant coordinates) - areelevatiod aan n - height of flue gases discharge (relative to ground level) - period and duration of emission

- overall annual and specific emission of SO,,, NOX and of solid particles - map presentation

Traffic

Emission of SO,* NO^ CO and Pb caused by traffic will be determined on the basis of traffic inten- sit individuan yi l city zones, vehicles structure, kilometers coveree registereth d dan d sale f fueso l -within the observed area Emission can be presented in the form of line sources by individual streets, or mora n i e simple manne quadranty rb surfacf so e sourcea

2.3. Organization of the Data Bank and Software Backup

The emission cadastre wilorganizee b l datfore a th f ma o d n bani k witappropriate th h e software backup which would, among other things, have to provide the following:

- a simple approach and data manipulation - evaluatin e emissioth g specifiy b n c categories (amoun f emissiono t , typ pollutantf o e , position, heigh f dischargeo t , purpose, etc.) - presentatio resultf no tabulasn i forrn i for diagrammf d o m an s whic ease hreaar o yt d - presentatio f aeriao n l distributio f emissiono n through computer graphic plottiny b d citsn gan o y map - data recalculatio preparind nan inpun a gn ti for mathematicar mfo l model distributiof so n - short-term forecast emissiof so dayy n(b , week, month, year)

113 a TIME SCHEDUL ACTIVITIEF EO S

Presented orientationanexn a s i t l time schedul f eactivitieso e perioTh . d foresee requires na r dfo completio e entirth f eo n projec yeare numbee on Th . s i f tresearcher o r s required determinewile b l d whe finae nth l scop researcf eo definedhs i .

11 12 1. Preparatio f questionnaireo n d organizatioan s n of work on the project 2. Survey 3. Storing survey data into computer 4. Storing survey data into cadastre data bank and emission registratio finan( l cadastre format) 5. Assessment of pollutant emission from point sources 6. Assessment of pollutant emission fron surface sources . Assessmen7 f traffito c emission, 8. Developmen datf o t a base structure 9. Development of software with cadastre data base of pollution sources 10. Report preparation

114 Attachment 3

WATED AIRAN R QUALITY MONITORIN CITE ZAGREF YTH O G N I B

Project objective

The problem of human environment protection was not given appropriate attention in the previous growth of the city. This resulted with a significant degradation of the quality of environment, especially concerning air. Although within the last ten years, due to gasification and heating facilities spreadin citye th , gn theri obvioun a es i s tren reducinf do pollutionr ai e g th situatio e th , r stilns i fa l from desired e measurementTh . s show r examplefo , , contentthae th t sulphuf so r dioxid partid ean - cle significantle sar y abov valuee eth s considered acceptabl lone th g watee stat n rund eo th f an ,eo r quality is similar. 11 is known that on the territory of the city and downstream, the river Sava is classifie dqualite withith r waterf y fo o structur ne V I classe Th existin.e d th an f eI o s II g industry indicates possible leakage numbea f so harmfuf o r d toxian lc substance emiso r thern fa whicr s o -i esfo s s ha sion measurements data.

Some of other measurements carried out so far gave valuable results, but that can not satisfy the demands of today as per all elements (measurements range, frequency, methods, equipment organization of measurements etc.). It is necessary to carry out a complete re-construction of existing measurement ordesn i enablo t r systematiea c approac resolvine th wateproblemd e ho t th an f r go ai f so pollution.

objective projecTh e th establiso t f eo s t i systee hth monitorinf mo qualite gth environmenf yo e th n to level of modern organizational - technological solutions and informatics know-ledge. Such a monitoring, along with a cadastre of pollutants, is a basic prerequisite for the control and long-term planning wated an r qualitai are e e Zagreboth f a th fo n yi .

Along with the air and water quality, the monitoring will include meteorological measurements and -pollutants emission measurements thus enabling determinin sourcee gth f pollutio sspecifio e th d cnan actions to be taken to reduce the pollution. The contents of the actions suggested In this project are outline followine th n do g pages.

Content projece th f so t

1. Analysi existine th f so g situation

A review of all existing monitoring and measurements along with the analysis of the available equipment, expert potential and measurement organization will he gi«°n. The analysis of existing situation will establish usable potentials within the frame of unified new monitoring system. 2. Defining the network of fundamental imission stations

Location f imissioo s n station r continuoufo s s automatic measurement wildeterminee b l d (fundamental network). For each station attributable functional characteristics will be defined (measurement rang moded ean , data acquisition manners, procedure r datsfo a processin storagd gan e etc.). Basic measurements will comprise:

115 - air quality (ground level concentration of noxious substances) - air and water radioactivity (gamma rays and doses) - water quality (physical-chemical indicators).

3. Defining the network of additional imission stations

Locations of additional imission stations for periodical, occasional and specific measurements to operate in off-line mode will be determined. Additional measurements would comprise:

-air quality (e.g. concentrations: CI, F, NH3, characteristic toxic ingredients etc.) - sedimentation and its chemism (heavy metals, sulphates etc.) - water quality (physical, chemica bacteriologicad an l l indica tors, saprobiological tests etc.) wated an r r ai -radioactivit y

4. Meteorological monitoring

Meteorological measurements range necessar characterizo yt e tine statu grounf so d levehigd an hl level atmosphere will be defined. Reconstruction of existing stations will be suggested and a location of eventually required new meteorological station will be determined. Stations should ensure high quality qualitr datai r afo y predictio planningd nan .

5. Emission measurement

Based upon a cadastre of emissions of the city of Zagreb (separate task) It will be suggested which sources require continuous emission measurement and others that require only occasional checks. Requirements new facilities should accomplish will also be given.

6. Definin informatioe gth n system

A technical-organizational scheme of information How within a unified system, considered from a measurement phase through data transfer to storage in a data bank of a central computer will be defined. Data processing and presentation modes will be suggested.

7. Quality assuranc controd ean l

Procedure qualitf so y assuranc controd ean l durin phasee gth designingf so , erectio operatiod nan f o n the monitoring system wilelaboratede lb .

116 Attachment 4

TECHNOLOGICAL WASTE INCINERATION

Note: Unde tere th rm "Technological waste" her s understooi et i d primarily that par mostlf o t y industrial waste which due to its physical, chemical or biological features calls for special procedures of incineration or incineration remainders depositing in order to avoid health and environmental risks

Principal source sucf so h e followinwastth e ear g industries: chemical, refining, steel, metal processing, leather tanning, paints and lacquers etc. The amounts of waste are not so important in comparison to its toxicity.

Insofar the problem of technological waste was dealt with mostly in an inadequate way:

- depositing on the site of the industrial plant or on other sites without adequate protection of under- groun surfacd dan e wares from pollution - depositing of technological sedimentation muds on inadequate sites with possible contamination of underground waters - drainage directly into sewage facilitie t considerinno s g possible detrimental environeffecte th n so - ment - incineration with no control over discharges of toxic and corrosive gases

Waste incineration is only one segment of dealing with problems of toxic industrial waste. (Under the term "toxic wastecaus thay e means i tma on onlt t e i "e acutno ytth e toxicitycausine on t als e bu ,og th long-term effects to the environment resulting with eventual chronicle effects, including carcinogenic and mutagenic features.

-For that reaso analysie n th technologica e th f so l waste sanation proble incineratioy mb n shoule db supported by environing and conceptual elaboration of the whole cycle consisting of the following main items:

1. Characterization of waste (classification, composition, quantities, categories)

- classification may be done according to the heating value (depending on whether additional fuel is necessary for incineration) or according to the prevailing chemical composition (organic, haloge- nous, metal, with prevailing retai watef no nitroger o r n compound likee th ) d san

- waste compositio extremelns i y importan determino t e becaus e assessmenth f eo f potentiao t l hazar becausd selectiodan e th f eo technologicaf no l solutions

- waste quantit vera s i y valuabl edecrease indicatioth o t f processinee o ndu g cost- s in wite hth crease of waste quantity (Predicted 20.000 tonnes per year for Zagreb is probably close to the limits of feasibility, thu waste sth e fro widee mth r Zagreb area should necessaril included.e yb )

117 - waste categorization concern toxicits sit r typyd o leve ef hazaran o l d with respec chemicao t t l composition and concentration of noxious substances in the waste, as well as other features (inflammability, explosivity, infectivit otherd yan )

Wast2 e collectio transpord nan t including pre-processing

Waste pre-processing is often necessary at the site of waste producer, aiming to reduce volume and toxicit waste th f eyo (e.g. neutralizing acid alkalisd san , sedimentation, oxidizing cyanide nitratesd san , transformation into chemically less hazardous forms suitabl packinr efo transportd gan , etc.)

3. Central waste processing facility

Withi scope th n thif eo s facility, following activitie desirablee ar s :

- waste selection - chemical treatment (detoxification, neutralization, separation, dehydrating, recyclin likee th ) d gan - incineration - depositing

The following essential problems should be resolved as far environmental protection is concerned:

- selectio facilitf no deposid yan t site(s t necessarilno )- same yth e - selectio technologicaf no l solution particular sfo r facilities - selectio equipmenf no emissior tfo n monitorinr controfo d an l g

Waste incineratio para f wasts o ni t e processing because incineration remainders, although lessn i volume, are basically equally toxic as the primary waste.

Basic criteri technologicar afo l waste incineration coul condensee db d intfollowine oth g

- only predominantly organic substances are suitable for incineration, although some inorganic substance thermalle b n sca y degraded thus becoming less toxic

- chlorine and other halogenic elements when inflamed form extremely corrosive gases and construction materials mus adaptee b t thato dt ; apart from thanecessars i t i t envisago t y e efficient purificatios systemga u fl f so n

- organic substances containing hazardous heavy metal- (mercury, lead, cadmium incin)e musb t - no t erated prio hazardouo t r s metals concentrations being proven kept within allowe dvicinite limitth n syi of the facility

- as far as SO2 is concerned, it is necessary to establish the standards normally implemented to SG>2 emission

118 it is necessary to ensure adequate incineration temperature as well as the time during which it should be maintained (usually 100 1200o t 0 deg Cduration i seconds2 f no , depending upo type f th neo organic substance, excess air factor and turbulence within the incineration zone)

it is necessary to perform continuous or periodical control over emission and to keep the concentrations within allowed limits. Continuous emission measurin necessargs i organi, CO r cyfo carbon, NO_ HCI, HF and for particles i.e. the contents of particular elements in particles

4. Waste Depositing

Site selectio technicad nan l solutio wasta f no e deposit shoul accordancn i e db e with waste characteristics.

Usually it is distinguished:

A) toxic waste deposit with maximum safet witd muse yhan f wastth o t e waters collectio purificad nan - tion

B) sanitary waste deposit, includes mainly industrial non-toxic waste, along with municipal waste

C) deposi solif to d waste wit possibilito hn forminf yo g noxious product wash-ouy sb t

Remainders after technological toxic waste incineration are usually deposited at the deposit of type remainderd Aan , s after municipal waste incineratio deposie th . t nC a typf r to o eB

Next page(s) left blank ENERGY SOURCES IN ISRAEL AND THEIR IMPACT NEARBE TH N YO POPULATION ACCORDIN SUBJECTIVO GT E OBJECTIVD AN E APPROACHES

A. TAMARI Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, Tel Aviv, Israel

Abstract

e papeTh r present e resulth sf epidemiologio t c surveys relevan o ambient t t SO2 concentration particularn si , from energy generatin othed gan r industrial facilitiee th n si Haif d othean a r region f Israels indicateo s i e powe t f I th coao . n i e lr dus thae th t stations and refineries in the study areas have a lesser impact on the environment and health than tha f residuao t l oil termn ,i reporte d SOf so an d chest illnes childrenn si .

Increased public awarenes concerd san n 2 about pollutio states ni influenco dt resulte eth s of surveys.

General revie f Israeo w l energy sources Israel is the only country in the Middle East to have a. negligible amoun f o conventionat l fossil resources. Israel imports about 96% of the sources for her energy needs. The other * com4 e from solar, hydroelectricityd naturaan s ga l . Wind turbin beeine ear g varioun testei w dno s sites ovecountrye th r . e primarTh y fossil energy source f Israeso l toda e crudar yl eoi d coalan n 1973I . , Israel depended totall n importeo y d oil. Nine years w powelaterne a r, station, fueley b r do l eitheoi y b r coal s alread,wa y erecte yea1 d r an dlate reachet i r s fulit dl nominal generating capacity of 1400 MW, the biggest power statio r totan he i Israeln f l o d abou capacitan % , 35 t t thaa y t time (Fig. .1)

1988 1973 1106.6 1022.0 ,1.4%

.4.1%

OBJ A CnideOU rn-. Anuclear 1988 10.1 A mo ti 0.3*

BOB Coat »Other 2.7%

Israel

. Tota1 FIG. l energy requiremen typey b t .

121 Since 1982, when coal was first introduced, its role has grown until its share during 1988 in ton oil equivalent was around 21%, the same as in the EEC. It is believed that coal is now supplyin e energth g f 36 yo w powe*wit ne a rh station starting this year, and an additional increase to 38% is expected by 2000. About 45% of the fossil fuel consumption during 1989 was due to electricity generation. Figur represent2 e relative sth e share in thousands of tons for each of the two sources.

THOUSAND TONS

3500

3000

2.100

2000

I5(X) -

1000 -

500 -

FUELOIL

FIG. 2. Fuel consumption by type of fuel. e necessitTh f lookino y r foreigfo g n source r fuesfo l required the Coventry to find suppliers willing to sign long-term contracts. The facts are that the Islamic countries, as well as the OPEC countries t contracsuppll no oi o Israelr o t yd fo ,t . This leaves small roo purchaso t m e rather "clean" crudes, from the environmental point of view. e introductioTh coaf o n l ease absolute th d e dependanc f Israeyo l n petroleumo t t provideonlI no . y r withe d h more securd ean usually cheaper supply, but also with an opportunity to use a low sulphur fossil fuel for electric power stations. Epidemiologie Surveys Epidemiologie surveys e werInstitutth e y b carrief o et ou d Enviromental Health of the Ministry of Health. Most of the surveys were funded by The Ministry of Energy via The Israely

122 Electric Corporation. The surveys were based on a questionnaire of the U.S. ATS-NHLI, filled out by the children1 parents, and rathen o mora r e objective operatio Pulmonarf no y Function Tests (PFT), take y b Munatn o AS-500 portable spirometere th l Al . surveys dealt with comparison between chosen areas, as will be explained later.

Durin yeare th g s 198 - 19B90 6 survey, s were carriedf o out l al , which concentrated on children of 7 and 10 years old. Two surveys n 19Bd ,19B4-i an O , were hel n Hader«i d ,a smal l town i n the midsa rura f o tl area, neae 144 W poweth M rO r station fueled by coal with 0.77. sulphur; one was held in 1982 at ftshdod. a town with an industrial zone and a power station of 1210 nominal generation capacity, fuele y b residuad l oil t tha,a t time with 3.2 - 3.5X sulphur content (now it contains 1V. or E.77., according to the meteorological conditions)» one took place during 19B4, in 6 rural settelments - 3 in H*v«l Yavnt. a polluted area next to Ashdod, and 3 in Hof Ashkelon, an unpolluted area about 25 k'm to the south; two were carried out in 1984 and 1989 in Haifa and its neighborhoods, a city with a heavy industry, where samth ee childre e checkewr n d withi5 n years difference. In the industrial zone there are! a power 0 stationomina43 f o n l generating capacity fuele y residuab d l oill refineriesoi , , petro-chemicals d cemenan , t plant, among others.

Rtiultt: Hive. 1 l f Athke^oV«vnHo - » 1 suevev)( n t From the following 3 tables one can find a general trend of higer prevalenc f o reported___respe i ratorv___symptoms characterizin e childreth g n e fropolluteth m d Hevel Yavne area. Still, only 2 parameters - sputum with cold, and cough with sputum -- are significantly more common in Hevel Yavne (table 1).

TABL . PREVALENCEI REPORTEF EO D RESPfRATORY SYMPTOM AMON} % N S(I G CHILDREN FROM HEVEL YAVNEH (POLLUTE ASHKELOF D AREAHO D AN ) N (LOW POLLUTION AREA)

Hevel Yavneh Hof Ashkelon Respiratory symptom (polluted) (low polluted) P value Cough with cold 33.5(310)° 31.6(136) N.S.- (0.772) Cough without cold 11.3 (310) 6.7(135) N.S. (0.184) Sputum with cold 28.1 (305) 17.2 (134) 0.019 Sputum without cold 7.0 (302) 3.0(133) N.S. (0.160) Coug + sputuh m 13.2 (287) 4.5(134) 0.010 Wheezing with cold 11.8(280) 10.1 (119) N.S. (0.750) Wheezing without cold 10.2 (264) 8 3 (109) N.S. (0.694) Wheezin + gshortnes breatf so h 19.9 (292) 24.2 (128) N.S. (0.381) parentheses—numben I ' f childreno r . ' P value > 0.05 is considered N.S.

The same trend prevails through the comparison of reported diseases, where it appears among siblings (table H). 6 parametere PFTOf th fo ,t onl ou significantls i s1 y y more commo Yavnn i n e over Ashkelon, whil e trenth es clearli d e th y same, i.e. more in Yavne area (table 3>.

123 TABL . PREVALENCE2 REPORTEF EO D RESPIRATORY DISEASE ) AMON% N S(I G CHILDREN FROM HEVEL YAVNEH (POLLUTED AREA) AND HOF ASHKELON (LOW POLLUTION AREA)

Hevel-Yavneh Hof-Ashkelon Respiratory disease (polluted) (low polluted) P value Respiratory disease 10.6(301)" (1340 6. ) N.S.* (0.170) Respiratory disease with sputum 6.9 (275) 4.1 (123) N.S. (0.382) Measles 13.9 (259) (1096 4. ) 0.016 Sinus trouble (2640 8. ) 7.4 (108) N.S. (1.000) Bronchitis 28.8 (271) 20.0(110) N.S. (0.102) Asthma 19.5 (272) 15.0(113) N.S. (0.377) Respiratory diseases among siblings 47.5 (276) 34.4 (122) 0.021 Pneumonia 15.3 (274) 20.7(116) N.S. (0.253) r infectionEa s 47.4 (285) 40.5(116) N.S. (0.255) Tonsilitis 7.7 (300) 5.3 (133) N.S. (0.482) Allergy 22.6 (297) 16.0 (131) N.S. (0.158) 3 or more colds/year 60.4 (225) 48.1 (104) 0.047 • In parentheses—number of children. valu*P e >0.0 consideres 5i d N.S.

TABLE 3. DISTRIBUTION OF PULMONARY FUNCTION TESTS (PFT) ON CHILDREN FROM HEVEL YAVNEH (POLLUTE ASHKELOF D AREAHO D AN ) N (LOW POLLUTION AREA)

Mean SD PFT Area (%) P value FVC Hof Ashkelon (138)° 94.97 12.54 N.S.* (0.213) (% predicted)* Hevel-Yavneh (330) 93.39 12.43 FEV, Hof Ashkelon (138) 97.21 13.63 N.S. (0.159) predicted% ( ) Hevel-Yavneh (330) 95.29 13.25 PEF Hof Ashkelon (137) 107.53 23.35 0.054 (% predicted) Hevel-Yavneh (328) 103.22 21.28 FEV./FVC Hof Ashkelon (138) 89.36 5.95 N.S. (0.893) Hevel-Yavneh (330) 89.28 6.18 FEF Hof Ashkelon (138) 98.60 27.42 M N.S. (0.238) (% predicted) Hevel-Yavneh (331) 95.70 22.83 FEF Hof Ashkelon (138) 99.36 36.73 7J N.S. (0.655) predicted% ( ) Hevel-Yavneh (331) 97.87 31.25 parentheses—numben I * f childrenro . percentags a T *PF predictef eo d values. c FEV,/FVC in percentage. valuP * e >0.0 considere5s i d N.S.

These results stay in accord with the S02 concentrations in o areatw discussion i e sth n (see figur wher, 3 e e data froe th m nearby polluted Ashdod is presented. Data from Ashkelon is randomly collected represntt i d an , s data similia o Hadera.t r )

124 100

M MY JL HADERA ASHDOD

FIG. 3. Maximum half hour average of SO2 concentration uglmn (i Ashdo3n i ) Haderd dan 1982n ai .

2. Hadera - Ashdod (3 surveys): Here, the PFT results were rejected as incompatible because of technical reasons. Instead, diverse analytic procedures were taken, of which the calculated relative risk to suffer from respiratory disturbnaces in the two areas, is represented (tabl. 4) e

TABL . RELATIVE4 E RIS RESPIRATORF KO Y SYMPTOM DISEASED SAN SECONR S FO FIFT D DAN H GRADE SCHOOL CHILDREN FROM ASHDOD (POLLUTED AREA) COMPARED WITH HADERA (UNPOLLUTED AREA)

Respiratory symptom P value or disease Hadera Ashdod (for area) Cough without cold .00 1.47 0.049 Cough + sputum0 .00 1.55 0.007 Chest illnesses .00 1.95 0.003 Chest illnesses + sputum .00 1.91 0.015 Bronchitis* .00 2.30 0.008 Asthma .00 2.66 0.039 Pneumonia .00 1.47 0.003 Respiratory diseases 0 .0 1 among siblings 1.54 0.002 « The model does not fit very well (P value for model <0.l).

125 The children who live in Ashdod - the polluted area - have a greate pulmonarrt ge ris o t k y symptom r diseaseso s over those who live in Hadera. All of the parameters are significantly greater in Ashdod (p>0.05, table 5).

TABL . EPREVALENC5 RESPIRATORF O ) % N E(I Y SYMPTOM DISEASED SAN S AMONG SECOND AND FIFTH GRADE SCHOOL CHILDREN FROM ASHDOD (POLLUTED AREA) AND HADERA (UNPOLLUTED AREA) WITHI SUBGROUE NTH CHILDREF PO N WHOSE HOUSE HEATEE SAR D

Respiratory Prevalence in Prevalencn ei sympto diseasmr o e Hadera (%) Ashdod (%) lvalue Cough with cold 39.9 (1536)- 40.1 (1080) N.S.(0.957)' Cough without cold (15302 8. ) 14.8 (1075) «CO.OOI Sputum with cold 19.1 (1485) 20.8 (1050) N.S.(0.333) Sputum without cold 3.9(1481) (10389 6. ) 0.001 Wheezing with cold 14.0 (1426) 17.0 (997) 0.050 Wheeling without cold (12451 7. ) (9368 9. ) 0.030 Coug sputuh+ m 6.3(1423) 10.1 (1009) «CO.OOÏ Wheezing with shortness of breath 10.6(1467) 13.6 (1029) 0.028 Chest illnesses 5.8 (1509) 9.5(1051) «CO.OOI Chest illness with sputum 4.5 (1398) (10208 7. ) <0.001 Three or more illnesses with sputum 2.4 (1404) (10065 4. ) 0.005 Measles 16.4(1292) 17.5 (888) N.S.(0.560) Sinus trouble 4.9(1248) (8597 3. ) N.S.(0.243) Bronchitis 22.0(1325) 25.4 (903) N.S.W.070) Asthma 9.8(1261) 13.0(868) 0.026 Pneumonia 12.9(1307) 18.1 (901) 0.001 Ear infections 31.7(1304) 32.6 (868) N.S.(0.683) Allergy 15.9(1493) Î9.H1018) 0.043 • Numbe childref ro parenthesesn ni . 0.0 > considere s 5i P • N.Ss da .

e averagTh e S0a concentration measures ,a d during 1982s i , present in figure 3 (ug/m3 for 1/2 houre). It should be notice de thagenerath t l averaged levef o S0l 3 concentration in Ashdod is usually high during the summer i.e. around 400>ag/m3 - 500ug/m3. It is worthwhile to note that the difference between Ashdod and the nearby agricultural sites of Hevel Yavne and Hof Ashkelon is not as great as the difference between Ashdod itself and Hadera. . Thre3 e residential zone Greaten si r Haif surveys)2 ( a : The first survey was held in 1984. About 4330 children were examinequestionnaire th y e childrePFTe b d Th th . d an en came fro differen3 m t residential zones:

zone A: with high S0a average concentration zone B: with medium S02 avarage concentration zone C: with low SO2 concentration (random monitoring only).

126 In Figure 4 maximal average 1/2-hour S02 concentrations (in ug/m representede 3)ar . e prevalencTh f reporteeo d respiratory symptom ) amon% n g(i s th 3 ezone significans i s parameter2 : sputu8 n i tf o m t sou either with cold or without cold (p-value * 0.0011 and 0.0116 respectively).

1500

1300

1100 .

900 •

700 ,

500

300 -

100 i—m—JE- -• zone £ -* zone B

FIG. 4. Maximum half hour average of SO2 concentration (in /tg/m3) in zones A and B in Haifa in 1983.

127 e relativTh t symptome ge ris o t kd respirator an s y diseases i s significant s showa , tabln i n . 6 e

TABL . RELATIVE6 E RISSELECTE3 N KI D ZONE HAIFN SI A

the symptoms ZONE ZONE ZONE P-value or disease A B C sputum with cold 1.38 1.40 1.00 0.0007 sputum without cold 1 .81 1.36 1.00 0.0099 number of colds 1.43 1.06 1.00 0.0003 chest illness with sputum 1.50 1.73 1.00 0.0248 bronchitis 1.49 1 .10 1.00 0.0008 respiratory diseases among s i b 1 i ngs 1.50 0.88 1.00 0.0013 P-value>0.005 « significant The Pulmonary Function Test did not show a clear decline in one or more function examined resula s a ,f livin o tzona n i eg with higer S02 concentration. e seconTh d surve s hel wa n 1989y i dt involve I . groupso tw d :a yearsn "old0 a 1 d f "o ,an grou e ag f thos po e o th ewh f o e on w ne were 7 years old at the time of the first survey, now beeing 12 years old. e firsTh t conclusions hav onlr e fa beey o partialns y summerized. o tableN s have been released unpublishen yett thera bu ,s i e d report e repor.Th traditionao t tw relate e th o st l partse :th reported part showe a shard p prevalence increasth n i e f eo respiratory symptoms and diseases in the less polluted residentia e increas morn Th i . n eB s i l tha ed wa % zone an 50 n C s compariso a sharo t 1984nn I p. contrastT showePF a e d th , trend of higher chest function in the least polluted area (C), 1984n i .s wa t i s a When comin o evaluet g t this issue e shoul,on d bea minn e i r th d following points:

1. Between 1984 and 1989, the total amount of S0a emitted by the power station and the refineries - the two largest pol lut ings in the area - was cut down by more than 50%. 2. During this period, the population of Haifa was actively involved in the campaign against the pollution in Haifa, held on by the local and national media. 3. The socio-economic profile of the population in zone C is the highest, B - medium, A - lowest.

4. An incident of high concentration of S03 was suddenly reportee monitorinon n i d gy beforda statioe th e on n questionnaire were distributed. It is believed that this chronicle had an influence upon the parents' filling out the questionnaire.

128 A further analysis of the answers showed a significant connection betwee e negativth n e e parentsopinioth f o n, regarding air pollution impact, and the prevalence of reported disease d san symptom s among their children. Actuallye th , by-pass of the answers obscured the examination of the risk to t respiratorge e pollutioth y o t diseasen theii n e rdu s residence zone. Conclussions powee th e f coa caso n th r i f lIsraele en stationo 1I .us e th , s and rÊfinerie a les s s ha environmene simpac th n o t t health than that of residual oil. Childre o liv vicinitwh n i e o emittint y g sources fueley b d residual oil {with as high S as 3.2%) have higher risk to get chest illnesses than children living near sources fueley b d coal e (witfirsth h t n I 0.7case maxima. th *eS) l S02

1/2-hour average concentrations are higher than 800n/g with an average concentration of 400ug/m3 - 500ug/3 (Ashdod)3 , while in the second case the maximal S02 1/2 hour average concentratio s i lesn s than 200ug/m Haderausuae n i 3th ld ,an average is as low as the background (Hadera). 2. The increase of the public awerness to the environmental s lifimpacit e n o tmigh t influenc e e resultth th e f o s ATS-NHLI questionnaire to a degree that it is unvalid. It occures probably withi highea n r socio-economic profile. authoritiee Policth f o y s The next power stations to be build in Israel are designed to work with coal (wite possibilitth h o shift y t into residual oil). Since these surveys were first published, the S in the residual fuel has been reduced to 2.7-2.5% during about 75% of the year, dependin n weathego r forcastS yeare % 1 th . ,a f o Durin % 25 g residual fuel is used. The procedure of shifting from one kind e othe th s bee ha ro nt improvel oi f o d since first introduced, - residuaS % e 1 amounburnl th oi lf d o ttan durin e yeas th gi r steadily rising standardsr n ordei ai , o e meet rth t .A 0.5 % S-residua l usag oi ls considerei e e timeth f extremelr so fo d y bad atmospheric conditions, when 1% S-oil is insufficient. A special reaserch is held by The University of Haifa which design an economic model to provide the policy making with a tool y ,b whic e h wile hb abll e eithe o estimatt r e leasth e t marginal cost of setting new standards, or developing more industrial activities without violating the existing or planned standards. The reaserch will be able to suggest to each industrial plant in the area the least possible marginal cost operations to reduce its emissions in order to meet the w situationstandardne e th n i s, dependin e totath ln o gamoun f o t emission e wholth n e i s hane on ared n ao (th e bubble concept), and the pollution distribution in the area on the other hand. e mode Th plannes i le introduce b o t d friendla y b d C programP y .

129 REFERENCES

Goren I.A., Hellman : HealtS. n h Survey in Schoolc hldrei n in Haifa Area, (in Hebrew, unpublished) 1986. Goren I.A., He11man. S n Comperative Health Survey amone th g Population of Hevelf Ho Yavn d an e Ashkelon.(in Hebrew, unpublished) 1986. Goren I.A., Hellmann S.: Prevalence of Respiratory Symptoms and Disease Schoolchildren si n Livin a Pollutea n n i i g d an d Low Polluted Area in Israel. Environmental Research 45, 28-37 (1988). Goren I.A., Brenne Hellman, rS. n S.:Cross-Sectional Health Study in Polluted and Nonpollutted Agricultural Settlments in Israel. Environmental Researc , 107-11h46 9 (1988). Shechter, M. Baron M., Amir S.: "TELMA" - A Policy Model for Efficient Management of Regional Air-Shed. A paper presented at the conference on "Environmental Cooperation and Policy in the Single European Market". Venice, Italy, April 1990. I.E.G.: STATISTICAL RESULTS 1989. Finance, Economics& Accounting Division, Statistica Marke& l t Research Department. The Israel Electric Corporation Ltd. Haifa, August 1990.

130 RESIDUAL FUEL USAG HAIFN EI A REGION (ISRAEL): CHANGES IN EMISSIONS AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH

A. TAMARI Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, l AvivTe , Israel

Abstract

authoe Th r practicrefere th o st e adopte Haifan di switchinf o , lowea o gt contenrS t fuel during adverse weather condition orden si minimizo t r e impaceth f SOo t 2 emissions.

conclusioe Th mads ni e tha higa t h reductio overaln i l SO emission bees sha n achieved 2 during the last 10 years in the Haifa Region as reflected in lower SO2 concentration in the air. The paper reports that there is also some improvement in pulmonary function among the children although the paper suggests that, in view of contrasting trends and results, the effects of pollutants from nearby, chemical manufacturing should also be investigated.

The coastal plain of Israel is a narrow longitudinal strip which extends along countrye th mos f e electrio t Th . c power stations refineriel oi o tw f e builIsraels o sar it ts a wels ,alona l g this narrow coastal plain. Here concentrateear e th o mos to f do t activitie e countrth f so y like industry, dwelling, etc. e Haifth n aI area, a parwhic f s thio i t hs coast, risen i s addition the Mt. Carrael (540 m1) whose slopes are going down inte Mediterraneanth o , creatin whicy ba favorabls i hga a r fo e port as well as for various industries. On the one hand, this geographical complex represents good combination for the people who live there, but on the other hand the mountain and the e responsiblar e buildin th a se r f o fo e vicinitge th f o y meteorological inversions. In these cases, when a stable layer rests abov mountaie baye th e th actbarriea t , i d s sa an n r which prevents the dilution of the gaseous emissions. They in turn, accumulat e loweth n re atmospherei e th laye f o r d befor,an e long e concentratioth , monitorine gasee th th n i sf no g stations rise. Thoug principln i h e this situation relate kindl al f so o st gases bees ha ,n 2 onlmonitoreS0 y d long enoug accommodato t h ea well representative information. Thus, the hazardous hours are well define s a thosd e lat night a e morningd earlth an tn i y , especially in the autum and spring, and sometime in the winter s wella . e shoulW d bea minn a historicai ro d t thae du t l situatione th , maximu e mchimney th heigh f o ts permite0 8 s n i Haifi dy ba a meters. Witn additioa 0 hplume meter 15 th f ef o s o nrise e on , comes to the cocnclusion that the most vulnerable strip of polluted area on Mt. Carmel is at about 200 meters above sea level facin baye th d eitheg, an r downward r upwardso s according e specifith o t c meteorological condition e timeth .t sa

131 S03 abatement This trend of accumulation due to what is clearly a force major, can be eased by reducing the emissions. The two main S02 emitting plant Haifn i s a n electriregioa e ar n c power station, nominaW M f abou o 0 45 tl capacity, refineriel oi d an s wit muca h h smaller power station of its own and routine releases of S0a. The rlease thesf S0f so sourceo of 2 tw e 198n i s 0 wer mucs ea s ha ton/hour5 9. .

e modf Th o abatemene f o thit s releas s don ewa y increasin b e g efficienc f o yoperatio e refinerieth n i n s like shut-dowd ol f o n equipments, and installing an elimentary sulphur recovery equipment, as well as washing S02 gases from the refinery process (graph no. 1). It is worthwhile to notice that at the sam Refineriel e oi time e th , s increase e refinerth d y ability.

3 -

CE I

2 -

— *

1984 1985 1986 1937 1988

GRAPH No. 1. S02 abatement from Haifa oil refineries. e poweth rn I plant, electricity productio Haifn i n a dropped down as far as by 50% by shifting the load from Haifa to other power plants, depended on national demand and on production icrease (table 1).

s Iseei t n thaS0e th 2t emitted froelectrie th m c power station is reduced in 10 years by almost 70%.

An additonal easing of the load of S02 emissions in Haifa was achieve y b dimprovin e qualite residuath th g f o y l fuel usen i d both plants. Thus sulphue th , r percentage dropped from 3.9-3.7% earle 2.7-2.5o 1984in t th ni yd 2 ,an 80'3. %o ,t sinc e 198. 7on Actually, the reduction is even greater during the specific hazardous seasons, as is explained later on (graph 2).

132 TABL . PRODUCTIONE1 ELECTRICITF O HAIFE TH AN YI POWER STATIO RELATED NAN 2 EMISSIODSO N

year kwh 10° % of S02 capacity emission t/hr 1980 2558 65 5.4 1981 2592 66 5.2 1982 1805 46 3.7 1983 1743 44 3.6 1984 1180 30 2.1 1985 1288 33 2.2 1986 1478 38 2.3 1987 1661 42 2.7 1988 1619 41 2.2 1989 1757 46 2.2 1990 1600 41 1.7

I '•••' I"——T 'I I 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

\7~7\ E.P.STAT10N 3 REFINERIES

GRAP . SO2 . 2 HemitteNo d from electric power station l refineriesoi d san .

The Intermediate Control System (ICS) s mentioneA d before, Haifa regio geographicas uniqus i nit n i e l d meteorologicaan l conditions e sensth f n euniquo s i i o t I .to e a very rapid increas n SO*i e concentratio o severat p u nl hundreds and even more than 1000 wg/ma in 2 hours. In order to overcome it, an Intermediate Control System (ICS) has been introduced, developed and improved since 1984. This s tern is based on close météorologie forcast, which is in turn

133 based upon improved in-situ equipments and on models. Whenever hard condition e forcastar s electrie th , c power unit f boto s h plants shift in a short time into a 1%-S residual fuel. It sould be borne in mind that the figures which are represented in graph 2 relat annuao t e l mean. Actually, durin hazardoue th g s seasons the emission of S0 has been dropped from 9.5 t/hr in 1980 to

about 1.5-2.0 t/hr i2 n the spring of 1991, from both plants. That is becaus a f 1%-o usin ef o d gS0.6%- an S residual fuel i nterme. 1y t a di

2 levelS0 s

As mentioned above, S02 values have been measured for quite a long time. For this presentation, the worst cases of S02 levels were collected. They represent eacdaile th h y maximum 1/2-hour value in the most polluted area in Haifa (zone A).The values of e dailth y maximum concentration were divided into four groups: 0 0-200, 201-500, 501-1000, >1000 Atg/m S02, and arranged monthly.

The number of wosrt cases in the two lower groups of S02 concentration has been increased between 1984 and 1989 (see set of tables at the end of this paper). We have focused however thire th dn ,o grou p (grap , becaus3) h e somf o e reasons maie proposee ,whicf th th no s standarw i h dne d for S0p u timee 99.752r , d th 0 yg/mfo an , 50 whicf 2 %o s °S0 i h to 1000 ^g/m3 (44 times per year) for 0.25%. As it is seen in graph 3, there is a general decrease in the number of SO3 cases in this grou zonn i pNote. eA , that zero caseo comen r ssfo (and r lacfo f o data) kt no r targe.Ou t o minimizt tha s i n e further the even f >50o t 0 /jg/m3.

:M_

10 11

mum

GRAPH No. 3. Haifa zone A: number of maximum half hour values of 501-1000 /Kj/m SO2

134 e impacTh t upon children

The connection between S02 emissions and pulmonary illness and low functio wels i n l recognized e hig.Th h emission level f S0so 2 in Haifa durin earle e handth g on d higy e an ,80' hth ratsn o f eo reported cases and other pulmonary sesitivities in this area on the other hand lead to a survey which was carried twice: in 1984 and in 1989. The epidemiologic survey of 1984 dealt with two groups: children o7 fyear s old d year0 thosan 1 , f seo old .detaileA d report on this survey and the results was submitted to the TCM in October 1990 n .I 1989 follo,a survep same u w th hels e y ywa b d staff, i.e. people of the Institute of Environmental Health, in orde o compart r e healt othed han r condition year5 s s laterf .O thes o groupsetw , onlyoungee th y r children coul e traceb d d an d re-examined w as'1,no 2 years old .wile W l call them e grouTh . 1 p childree seconth f dno group (thosyear0 1 f seo old) coule db trace o moren d . Therefore, other children age year0 1 d s were been chosen according to the same criteria as before. This is n botgrouI h. p2 proups , children from polluted, medium polluted pollutew anlo d d areas (zone A.B.C) were checked. Result parametrso checke5 tw f f o so dt pulmonarou , y functions, presentee ar d here: FEV1. Force0= d Expiratory firse Volumth tt ea secon d = F PeaPE k Expiratory Flow The other parameters can not be properly compared. The results of group 1 are shown in table 2.

TABLE 2 TWO PULMONARY FUNCTIONS OF THE SAME CHILDREN (GROUP 1) AT AGE 7 (1984) AND 12 (1989)

The zone* The 1984 1989 function F M F M A FEV0 1. 1.36 1.46 2.52 2.54 PEF 3.15 3.34 5.07 5.31 B FEV1 . 0 1.35 1.45 2.52 2.58 PEF 3.19 3.31 5.13 5.23 C FEV0 1. 1.40 1.48 2.59 2.55 PEF 3.06 3.19 5.14 5.25

* A polluted B medium polluted C low polluted

135 e FEV1.Th 0 value 198n i s 4 were vere y zones l th clos al d n ,i an e same happened in 1989. Note the difference due to age change. F valuePE n e 198i Th s 9 were again thre l mucsame al en th hi e zones, though males in zone C showed high increase in PEF. Note the relatively low value of PEF in females and males in zone C (low polluted) in 1984.

In table 3, children of group 2 (children of 10 years old) show higher FEV1.0 values in all zones in 1989, except for the males ine increas zonTh FEV1.e . th eA femalen n i 0i eC d f zono san eB is significant. The PEF values, on the other hand were smaller in 1989, some of them significantly. The whole trend, as is calculated here undefineds i , . It should be borne in mind that in both groups, better dwelling conditions were found in 1989, like less persons per room, and more heatin d witan g h cleaner devices. However, smoking among adults increased for all groups of children.

TABLE 3. TWO PULMONARY FUNCTIONS OF TWO DIFFERENT GROUPS OF CHILDREN (GROUP 2) AGED 10 (1984 AND 1989)

The zone* The 1984 1989 function

F M F M

A FEV0 1. 1.89 2.05 1.96 2.01 PEF 4.13 4.37 3.98 4.11

B FEV1.0 1.88 2.01 1.98 2.06 PEF 4.23 4.42 4.01 4.19

C FEV1 . 0 1.98 2.04 2.02 2.05 PEF 4.23 4.33 4.13 4.19

* A polluted B medium polluted C low polluted

136 3 MAXIMUM DAILY HALF HOUR SO2 ZONN I , NEVE-SHANANEA , HAIFA, IN THE YEARS 1984-1989

year month 0-200 201-500 501-1000 >1000 1984 1 22 8 1 0 2 11 8 7 2 3 15 12 3 1 4 12 7 4 3 5 15 3 10 3 6 27 1 1 0 7 28 0 0 0 8 30 0 0 1 9 23 3 4 0 10 14 12 3 2 11 13 14 3 0 12 9 15 6 1

year month 0-200 201-500 501-1000 >1000 1985 1 15 12 2 0 2 22 5 1 0 3 9 13 5 4 4 19 4 2 1 5 18 6 5 2 6 27 2 1 0 7 29 1 1 0 8 29 1 0 0 9 24 5 1 0 10 19 7 2 3 11 8 10 10 0 12 19 11 1 0

year month 0-200 201-500 501-1000 >1000

1986 1 13 9 0 0 2 15 8 4 1 3 22 7 2 0 4 18 8 3 1 5 25 5 0 1 6 24 4 2 0 7 23 0 1 0 8 31 0 0 0 9 23 1 1 2 10 13 10 10 1 11 11 7 7 0 12 11 0 0 0

137 3 MAXIMUM DAILY HALF HOUR SO2 ZONN I , NEVE-SHANANEA , HAIFA, IN THE YEARS 1984-1989

year month 0-200 201-500 501-1000 >1000 1987 1 13 9 1 2 2 13 9 1 2 3 19 3 9 0 U 16 7 5 0 5 15 S 3 0 6 22 5 3 4 7 24 0 0 0 8 28 2 0 0 9 25 3 2 0 10 19 3 0 0 11 13 8 1 0 12 14 7 0 0

year month 0-200 201-500 501-1000 >1000 1988 1 22 7 2 0 2 17 5 0 0 3 27 3 1 0 4 21 8 1 0 5 19 9 1 0 6 26 2 1 0 7 28 2 1 0 8 31 0 0 0 9 22 2 0 0 10 25 5 1 0 11 22 5 2 0 12 23 6 1 0

year month 0-200 201-500 501-1000 >1000

1989 1 21 10 0 0 2 19 7 2 0 3 24 7 0 0 4 12 13 3 2 5 — — — — 6 26 4 0 0 7 29 1 0 0 8 28 3 0 0 9 24 5 0 1 10 22 8 1 0 11 18 2 2 1 12 16 12 3 0

138 Conclusions A very high reductio S0n i nemission s beesha n achieved during

the last 10 years 2 in Haifa area. This reduction has been reflected in a less S02 concentration in the air in the most polluted zone. However, the reduction of S02 levels is much less prominent than the emission abatement. This, in turn has its effect upon the population, though in much lesser degree, as the results of the survies among children show. The s i rsom e improvemen n pulmonari t y function amone th g children e surveth t ybu , show n undefinesa d trend. Haif wels i a l s chemicait know d r othean nfo l r industrial activitien i s addition to the electric power station and the refineries. It is suggested here e thaemissionth t s release thesf of de plants contribute to the effect upon the population in Haifa, and it should be investigated and taken in account when coming to plannin n Haifai g .

Next page(s) left blank 139 EDB: A FLEXIBLE DATABASE FOR ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

B. BIEWALD, M. LAZARUS, D. von HIPPEL Stockholm Environment Institute, Tellus Institute-Boston Center, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America

Abstract

papee th environmentae n th rI l data base develope Stockhole th y db m Environmental Institute Boston center is described. It currently contains data, gathered from an extensive review of the literature and from other sources of compiled data on emissions. EDB can be used as a stand-alone database or integrated within an energy planning system. The database is designed as a two-dimensional matrix: rows are source categories (energy demand, processing technologies) column effecte th e ssar categories representin aire gth , water, solid waste emission direcd an s t health/safety impactn (i s terms of emissions) produced by sources. Each such source-effect combination can be e coefficienstoreth n i d t database e structur e Th databasth . f o e e includee th s bibliographic references and a documentation note for each coefficient cell in the database.

With support from Swedish International Development AgencUnitee th d dyan Nations Environment Programme, the Stockholm Environment Institute — Boston Center (SEI-B) has conducted a project to better incorporate environmental concerns into energy planning methods. SEI-B has designed and programmed an interactive database of environmental emissions and direct impacts resulting from energy production and consumption activities. This Environmental Database (EDB) currently contains extensive data, gathered fro mextensiva e revieliterature th f w o existind ean g emissions data compilation. usee stand-alona b s dn a ca B eED databas acceso et ented san r this information additionn I . incorporates i t i , d withi energn na y planning system, LEAP, enabling users of the combined software to link the environmental data with energy scenario generato st e account projectiond san f emissions o scurrentls i B ED y. being used in several energy-environment planning studies in both developing and industrialized countries collaboration I . n wit UNEe hth P Collaborating Centrn eo Energy and Environment at RISO, efforts are continuing to further expand the development and application of EDB.

SEI-B

The theme of sustainable development is central to SEI-B activities. The overall programme of SEI-B focuses on assessing alternative futures in order to guide policy today. SEI-B specialize developmenn si applicatiod an t computer-basef no d methods

141 for compiling resource accounts and performing scenario analysis. In addition to EDB and LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system), SEI-B has developed a microcomputer software system r projectinsfo g emission f greenhousso e gases frol mal related human activities and evaluating emission reduction policies (G2S2) and for conducting integrated water resource analysis (WEAP).

The PurposB ED f eo

Over the past two decades, environmental research activities have generated large amounts of data on the emissions and impacts associated with energy processes and technologies. Wit currene hth t rapidly growing concern about environmental problems, it has become more important than ever to make these data accessible to analysts and policy makers worldwide. Accordingly, EDB was conceived as a tool to gather this data fro s manymit , often difficul tracko t t , sources int oconsistenta , up-to- date, and easy-to-use form. EDB is intended to provide a comprehensive international summary of data linking energy-related activities to environmental consequences. The menu-driven software operatepersonaM IB n so l computers (and compatible equipment) therebd usee b mosan , y dn b yca t energ environmentad yan l planners throughout the world.

Scope of EDB

Thus far, EDB development has focused on the emissions and other environmental impact f energo s y consumin producind gan g activities e structurTh . f eo the databas bees eha n designe alloo dt w extensio includo nt e impacteth f otheo s r activities as well. Any activity for which a quantifiable effect (a quantity of pollution, damage, etc.) that directly results fro operatioe mth sourcea f no (industrial process, agricultural activity ,readile b etc. n y)ca incorporated intdatabasee oth . Indirect effects, suc healts ha h impacts occurring downwin r downstreado m from pollutant emissions, have not been directly incorporated into the database. The determination of such indirect impacts requires site-specific analysis, and an understanding of local transport phenomena, dose-response relationships, etc. thabeyone ar t scope a dth f eo broadly-applicable data base such as EDB. Nonetheless, the data in EDB provide an important resourc r assessinefo comparind gan g alternative energy technologied san processes for minimizing the emissions that lead to these indirect impacts.

datedato B T aED , have been gathered from numerous references, witn ha emphasi more th en so easil y usable datquantifiabld aan e effects r instanceFo . B ED , contain resulte sth severaf so l U.S. Environmental Protection Agency studie datd san a compilations covering electric power plant, transport, and industrial emissions of air pollutants (e.g. the kilograms of SO* emitted per tonne of coal burned for different industrial boiler technologies). EDB contains data on emissions from household devices, agricultural equipment, refinerie direcn o d t an shealt safetd han y impactf so major energy transformatio extractiod nan n processes (e.g. coal mining)e th t A . present timedatB aED , developmen focussins i t additionan go l sources typicar fo l developing countries: wood fires, charcoal kilns olderd an , , less maintained vehicles and other machinery. Another area of database expansion will look at nuclear effects

142 and land use consideration which have not yet been included. As the current mors i coverag B e completED n ei r U.Sefo . technologies e databasth , beins ei g expanded to cover more European and other sources. Finally, current efforts are also oriented towards filling "gapsexistine th n "i g database, where effectexistinn a r fo s g source are known occur, but the appropriate data have not yet been located.

EDB Structure

Figur showe1 structure th s EDBf flexible eo Th . e structure allow usea s o t r stor accesd ean extensivn sa f documenteo t ese d quantitative information aboue th t environmental impact f productioso consumptiod nan n activities. thoughe two-dimensionaa b s n a f ca o t B ED l matrixmatrie e rowth f Th o sx . are Source categories, the energy demand, transformation, and extraction technologies processed an s suc s dieseha l trucks l refineriesoi , r naturao , productios ga l n methods. The columns are the Effects categories, representing the air, water, and solid waste emissions and direct health and safety impacts that are produced by the sources.

COEFFICIENTS DATABASE Effect Categories - Source x SONO x Categories TS

Envlronmentao C l efficients, Docijmenta«on and ftefererices ^*^ \ •Bi \ f- \

BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCE DATABASE Author Title Publisher Data Othe/ r IA

FIG. 1. Environmental database.

143 Sourc effecd ean t categorie definee ar smulti-levea y b d l hierarchy. Demand- side source splie amonp sar u t g sectors, subsectors, enduses, devices r instanceFo . o t , access the emissions data for different automobile technologies, you would select the Transport sector Roae th , d subsector Cars-Gasoline th , r Cars-Diesele(o r otheo , r fuels) enduse, and then select from various device types (high efficiency, 1980 vintage, various control technologies) e situatioTh . transformatior nfo extractiod nan n source categories and effects is analogous. A listing of the effect categories currently included in EDB is shown in Table 1.

For each combination of source and effect, information can be stored in the Coefficients Database. This database is the centra] component of EDB. It consists of the cells of the matrix. A cell contains data on the specific effect (e.g., tons of nitrogen oxide emissions) per unit of source activity (e.g., liters of gasoline used in a four-stroke automobil t equippeeno d with emission control devices).

Emissions coefficients isolation i , n from their contex whicn i t h they were f limiteo derived e b dn valueca , . Therefore, each cel Coefficientn i l s Database also contains documentation reference.a d documentatione an Th typically consistf so phrases, equations, and page references explaining how the coefficient in the cell was derived from the corresponding reference. The documentation is reported along with the numeric data so the user will understand any important computations used in developing the data, or caveats on the applicability of the data. As shown in Figure 2, EDB organizes this quantitative and qualitative data so that the user can view the correspondine th datd aan g documentatio referenced nan integraten a n i s d process.

Table 1 Default Effect Categories in the Environmental Database

AIR EMISSIONS DISSOLVED SOUDS CARBON DIOXIDE BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND BKX3ENIC CARBON DIOXIDE CHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND CARBON MONOXIDE SULFATES TOTAL NITROGEN OXIDES CADMIUM NITROUS OXIDE MERCURY TOTAL SULFUR OXIDES SALTS SULFUR DIOXIDE NITRATES TOTAL HYDROCARBONS ORGANIC CARBON METHANE GREASD OILAN E ALDEHYDES CHLORIDES FORMALDEHYDE AMMONIA TAR PHOSPHATES VOLATILE HYDROCARBONS CYANIDE ORGANIC ACIDS TOXIC HYDROCARBONS SOLID WASTES POLYCYCUC ORGANIC MOLECULES MINING WASTE LEAD TOTAL WASTES TOTAL PARTICULATES ASH PARTICULATES < 10 MICRONS SCRUBBER SLUDGE FUGATME COAL DUST AMMONIA OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY DEATHS WATER EFFLUENTS INJURIES TOTAL SOUOS WORK DAYS LOST SUSPENDED SOUDS

144 effect: AIR EMISSIONS / NTTROGEN OXIDES /TOTAL source: TRANSPORTATION / ROAD / CARS-GASOLINE UNLEADES U * 199£ 0* 199DS 0 U D ST UE S * 1990

1.29E +1 GRAMS PER GALLONS GASOLINE consumed

Based on . % N/A content (by weight) of GASOUNE

Documentation Note: Ret. 1, pg H-9 reports 0.5 g/mile. Ref. 1, pg. M 2-20 reports vehicle efficiency 25.7 miles/gal g/mll5 0. . Gram = e 25.x x 7 sNO miles/gal .

Bibliographic References: 1 United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1985 2 3 Last modified 30/08/90 by KRG

F2: Potions PrevF3: Source NextF4: Source F8/F9: Select Source/Effect PgUp. PrevF5: Effect PgDn. F6- Next Effect F1Q- Menu

ENVIRONMENTAL DATA BASE (c) SET/UNEP 12/10/90

FIG. 2. Sample environmental database screen coefficient cell.

Up to three references can be identified in each cell. These contain summary information abou e source datath tth f .e o Detailed references — including author, title, publishe storee datd ar separata an re~ n d i e Bibliographic References Database. This database, while separate, is linked to the Coefficients Database, allowing the user calo (e.g.t p u l , view ,detailee edi th r addo t) d references while working wite hth environmental coefficients.

Core Database and User Additions

containB ED Coresa databas f entrieeo s develope SEI-By db , consistinf go default Sourc Effecd ean t categorie wida d e san rang f generalleo y applicable Coefficients useB then ca rED n e supplemenTh . t this Core database with thein ow r data suchs serveB A .t onl ED , pre-loades no y a d databas f environmentaeo l coefficients, but as a structure'd tool for researchers and analysts to manage their own data appropriate specifio t c application r studies so sourc w d ne .d ean Userad n sca effect categories, bibliographic references, and coefficient cells; EDB manages Core and non-core entries thao s , t future update Core th f eso databas possible ear e while maintaining different users' additions.

145 EDB User Interface

systeB ED mmenu-drives i e Th n with on-screen prompt assiso st e userth t . The selections from the main pull-down menu allows the user access to the Source categories, Effects categories, Coefficients database, and Bibliographic References databa'se. Under each optio use e vien edid nth wca ran t individual entrie r creatso e report files for subsequent printing or processing with other software.

Physical Unit Conventions in EDB

EDB coefficients can be entered in any of a number of physical units, both English and Metric. A set of conversion factors in EDB provides for quick translation intdesire y f units o r an example t Fo d.se particulaa f i , r coefficien expresses wa t n di "pounds of CO per ton of oil" in a reference document, it can be entered that way into EDB, to eliminate the burden on the user of standardizing units, and so that the coefficien e readilb n ca yt identified wit e sourcesame hth th t e A usee time. th rf i , coefficiene th wishee se o t s converte kilogramo dt keystroke w r literfe spe a , s will accomplis conversione hth . Note tha thin i t s case densite fuee th , th l f ymuso e b t used. Where unit e convertear s d from volum weigho et r vic(o t e versa assumee th ) d densit reportes yi screene th n do .

Linking EDB with Energy Planning Models

EDB has been incorporated into the LEAP system, an integrated family of energy planning and analysis programs which has been applied in a wide variety of contexts over the past eight years. The combined software package allows planners and researchers to compute the environmental impacts of alternative long range energy scenarios. This aspec f energo t y plannin bees gha n receiving increasing attention recently. We believe that LEAP Environment provides a unique capacity for folding environmental impacts into the evaluation of alternative energy strategies.

e environmentaTh fore th m ln i LEAdescribe B PED wile dus l above t wilbu ,l includ modulea e linking LEAP with EDB shows ,a Figurn ni . eWit3 expandee hth d system usee th , r wil able b l estimato et environmentae eth l impacts associated witha given long range energy scenario, in addition to the cost and energy flow analyses which LEAP currently provides. The linking module will multiply LEAP energy and activity data by the appropriate factors from EDB to estimate the environmental impact givea f so n LEAP scenario presend an , resulte th tchoica n si f reporeo t formats, including graphical output.

O alsn f usee courseca ob dB alone ED ,sourca s a , f environmentaeo l coefficients for any planning analysis. It can also be linked with energy planning models other than LEAP.

146 LEAP Menu

Environmental Emissions and Impacts Output

FIG. 3. Integration of EDB with LEAP.

Applications of EDB

EDB is currently being used in several energy-environment planning studies worldwide conjunction I . n with beins LEAPi B g assessmenn useED ,a n di f o t alternative energ yU.Se planth r . sfo

EDB has been used in an ongoing project to explore strategies for acid rain abatement in Europe. This project, being conducted at SEFs York Center, is an conjunction i e us examplB nED witf eo h other models. "Base case" emissions datr afo each European country was developed using EDB, and input to an optimization model along with other data, includin atmospherin ga c transport matrix, emissions abatement costs, and sensitivity of receptor land area to acid depositions. The objective of this projec exploro t s i t e "targeted deposition strategies r aci"fo d rain abatemenn i t Europe.

In Costa Rica, Senegal sood Tanzaniaan ,n n i , SEI- Bparticipatins i e th n gi development national energy-environmental accounts wil B usee b l thesED n di . e studie implicatione looo th st t ka f alternativso e development scenario termn si f so aggregate emissions. These studie intendee sar developmene assiso dt th n i t f o t environmental analysis capabilities within those countries, while contributin bettea o gt r understandin nationae th f go l environmental situation theid san r regiona globad an l l implications, particularly with respect to global wanning. It is expected that these applications will identify important research priorities needed to fill large gaps in current knowledge of environmental impacts in developing countries.

147 Conclusion

f Octobeo s A r 1990datB programmine th as complete,ED i e B th d ED f an ,go set contains approximately 2000 entries spanning a wide range of end-use and transformation technologies. Programmin software th f go e LEAo t linkin B s Pi gED also complete. Together environmentae th , l coefficient software th d acceso an st e e sth data provide a useful and flexible system for environmental planning.

A large amoun f additionao t l datbees aha n assemblee th t SEI-Bdn a i d an , near term work on EDB will be concentrated on entering this data and assembling and entering data from additional source s- particularl y non-U.S thao T .t end, SEI-B woul pleasee db learo dt n abou compendiy an t f emissionao s factors recommendey db conference participants.

References

I 1990SE . LEAP: ComputerizedA Energy Planning System, Volume , Overview,1 Stockholm Environment Institut eBosto- n Center.

BICRAM 1987. Acid Depositions in Europe: Co-ordinated Abatement Strategies: An Interim Report, Beijer Institute Centr r Resourcefo e Assessmen Managementd an t , University of York, York, United Kingdom.

148 DEVELOPMENT OF A DATABASE FOR DETERMINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ENERGY PROJECTS PHILIPPINEE TH N I S

A.D.D. SUPETRAN Environmental Management Bureau, Metro Manila, Philippines

Abstract e framewor e th need e developmend Th th an sr fo k a databas f o t f environmentao e l impact n energo s y project e Philippineth n i s e introducear s n thii d s papere Th . information requirements for energy projects under the Philippine Environmental Impact Assessment System are investigated and the data and information needed for comparing environmental impacts for the coal fired and geothermal power plants are outlined. Data/information needs for the Project Description (costs, required volumes of water, raw material supply), for Site Description geology information (hydrology and water quality, meteorological datar ai quality, , terrestrial/aquatir cfo biotad an ) Socio-Economie description (land use, population densities, morbidit d mortalityan y rates, number of affected households). Radioactivity analysis data of coal fuel are to be documented for various coal combustion products. It is concluded that there is a need for better schemes for impact prediction of energy development and utilization in the Philippines.

1. INTRODUCTION

The Philippines' energy situation has always been characterized by its great dependenc significanimportea n eo d an l doi t increas totan ei l energy requirements, averaging 23% from 1980 to 1989. Oil, coal, hydropower and non-conventional sources constitute the country's primary energy sources. Sixty-four percen trequirementl (64%oi s it f )o importes si d whil remainine eth supplies i % gindigenou36 y db s production from fou l fieldsoi r , namely: Nido, Cadlao, Matinloc and Tara South. Coal is drawn from the country's reserve approximatelf so millio4 y35 n metric tonimported san averagn a t da e rate of 84%. Figure 1 provides all coal areas (both under exploration and development) in the Philippines. Geothermal energy likewise contributes significantly to total energy sources, displacing 53.57 MMBFOE from 1980 to 1987. Presently, there are four producing geothermal power plant - Tiws Albayn i i , Makiling-Banahan wi Laguna, Tongonan in Leyte and Palinpinon in Southern Negros. Figure 2 depicts all geothermal operations in the country. The country's single biggest conventional domestic energy source is hydropower, supplying 9.10 MMBFOE or 9.62% of total energy demand. Foremost of the country's noted hydropower plants are the Ambuklao, Bokod in Benguet, Anga Bulacann i t , Caliraya-Luno Lagunn i t Marid aan a Cristin Iligann ai , Lanao del Norte.

149 PRODUCTION

CAftAYAN VALLEY MIMACO CATHA. IL M Y REAL MINES KCAL MINE* CATANDUANf a COAL MINIHO

•COL COAL UNTUCOCÛAL COALFIELM ACRI CftAVAT

HCH6ULC* COAL MIMINÇ

ADLAON CNEMY cevt. COAU CO L MINE» LUVIMIN rwoc »MIU'TANUM . AROONCX UANTO

KiMWAVMIMM« PNOC-CC »MC-CBtl WIMACO HININ« I« VI LUVIttN

COAL SAS IM «.T. GOAL MUMM

FIG. 1. Coal areas in the Philippines.

150 LEGEND :

HISTORICALLY ACTIVE VOLCANOES

• PRODUCTION STAGE

• ADVANCED EXPLO. STAGE CASUA.CAOAYA* BATONö- BUHAY O PRELIMINARY EXPLO. STAGE KALINCA APAYAO MAINIT, MT. PROVINCE 6ÜQUIAS, BEN6UET DAKLAN, BEN9UET ACUPAN, BENGUET MAK-BAN, LAO UNA (POI- NPC) Unit 152- HOMW - 197. » MT. PINATUBÛ.ZAMBALE3 Unit 164 - 110 MW. -1980 MT. MARiVELE$,8ATAAH Onll TAAU UABINi,BATANOA8 MT.LABO CAMARINES NORTE

MONTELAGO OR MINOORO TIWI.ALBAY IPOI-NPC) Unit 162 - IIOMW. •1979 Uni/ »64 • 110 yVN -I960 Unit (ft - «IIOMW . -1982

BAC-UAN, ALBAY (PNOC-EDC) IROStN.SORSOSON BILIRAN, LEYTE TDNOONAN, LEYTE (PNOC-EDC) T«Mefl«i SMW. -I97T WVMBUCAJ -112-5 UW..I»aJ NEOftOS OCC CANLAON BURAUEN AN ANAW, LEYTE PALIMPiNON SOUTHERN NEOROS MAINIT, SUR IGAO (PNOC-EDC) CALAYO 1UW- I»t. 0 «>>«) »MW. . RAGANG »«I ItJMW. -!»•! KAKATURANG UALINDANO MISAMIS OCC.

LAKE WOOD ZAM&OANGA DEL SUR

APO-K1DAPAWAN COTABATO MANAT-AUACAN OAVAO

. PhilippinFIG2 . e geothermal operations.

151 Bagasse, agri-waste, alcohol, coconut oil, biogas,solar, windmill and dendrothermal compris e country'th e s non-coventional energy sources. Biomass energy (primarily bagasse, 23%, agri-industrial waste, 38.2%), accounts for 61.2% of total non-conventional energy used. Industr largese th s yi t consume energf o r y (44%), followe transpore th y b d t sector residential/commercia(35%e th d )an l secto 17%t ra . Petroleum consumption s beeha n steadily increasing, wit powee hth r industry bein largese gth t consumer. l supplieOi s 43.21 %electricitf o y generation requirements, followe hydropowey db r at 25.18%, geothermal - 20.45%, coal - 9.62% and non-conventional energy sources - 1.52%. Energy development and utilization have significantly increased over the years, generating adverse environmental impacts. In 1978, government adopted the environmental impact assessment requirement, requiring major development undertakings to document significant impact on the environment in the form of environmental impact statements. Environmental impacts of energy development projects, particularly, were subjected to careful scrutiny. The Environmental Impact Statement System gave rise to data bases on major projects or developments which gradually buil througp u t yearse hth .

2. INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS FOR ENERGY PROJECTS UNDER THE PHILIPPINE EIS SYSTEM Like most developing countries Philippinee ,th faces i d with problem poof so r availability, even unavailabilit datf yenvironmentao r afo l studiese stare th th f t o A . implementatio Environmentae th f no l Impact Assessment System documentS EI , s submitted contained very minimal dat r adequatafo e revie determinatiod wan f no environmental impacts. To ensure that significant impacts of new developments are systematically taken into consideration and reported, the Environmental Management Bureau (then the National Environmental Protection Council) as the implementing agency for the EIS system, issued a set of information requirements in the late seventies. Basically, such requirements included site characterization (climate, terrain, hydrology, vegetation, land use, etc.) socio-economic parameters, pre-construction details, operation and maintenance details, contingency and abandonment details, among others. In the reporting of impacts, bio-geophysical and socio-economic effects were required to be documented, including changes in water quality of affected water systems, change r qualityai n si , health impacts, etc. More recently, scoping guidelines were issued per project category. For geothennal projects, for example, a systematic reporting of impacts, both at the exploratio developmend nan operatiod tan n stages requireds ,wa . Again, information and data on terrain, hydrology, water quality, meteorological conditions and socio- economic parameters were to be submitted. For field development, documentation were to be provided on drilling activities, site preparation, elements of the projected steam gathering system (productio reinjectiod nan n wells/well pads, steam liquid separators, pipeline lanes and geothennal ponds), etc.

152 Also procesa , s descriptio requiredns i , including compositio volumed nan f so extracted, reinjected or disposed goethermal fluids. All treatment facilities too, are e describeb o t d- treatmen t processes, (hydrogen sulfide abatement, wastewater treatment, spent liquid treatment prio o disposat r r reinjection)o l , capacitf o y treatment plant treated san d volumes. Likewise l chemicalal , sprocessee useth n di s listede b o t , e includinar g quantitie potentiad san l hazardou r toxiso c properties. r coal-fireFo d power plants e followinth , g informatio e requiredar n : site preparatio constructiod nan n activities; project costs; process description (complete with process flow schemes); water supply (sourc d requirean e d volumes, water treatment); coal supply; fuel and coal storage areas; flue gas treatment, stack constructio heightd nan , etc. Also, site characteristics like land use, biota, hydrology, water and air quality, meteorological data and socio-economic aspects are required for reporting impacte projecar e s th ;a f landn so o t , surface waters, atmospherd ean people. coan I l mining, proponent requiree sar documeno dt t source solif so d wastes (excavated earth for construction sites, top soil layer from open pit mining, mine tailings and sludges from waste water treatment plants). Liquid effluents (process water, other effluents theid an )r impact surfacn o s e waters; min d drainageean ; siltation; change hydrologyn si ; nois gaseoud ean s pollutants from blasting operations were likewis discussede b o et . Tabl summarizee1 informatioe sth n requirementr sfo energy project ssystemS undeEI e th r.

3. DATA AND INFORMATION ACTUALLY CONTAINED IN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENTS OF ENERGY PROJECTS 3.1 Coal Fired Power Plants The country currently has three operating coal power generating plants Batangae th - s Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plan (Calact1 Uni. n i No t) aI Calaca ,Cebun i Batanga I I . d Nagd Calacan an s I a I agenerate 0 30 s megawatts, while Naga I and II, have capacities of 50 and 55 megawatts, respectively. The Batangas Coal-Fired Thermal Power Project Unit No. 2 is awaiting implementation. Meanwhile environmentan ,a l impact statemens twa prepare samee th n .do containeS EI e Th d dat sitn ao e meteorolog r qualityai d yan ; terrain, geolog soilsd yan ; hydrolog oceanographyd yan ; water quality, terrestriad an l aquatic biot socio-economid aan c parameters plane th tn itselfO . , information on plant faculties, coal handling, steam generating systems, workforce, special design features, coal dust control systems, raw materials and sources, plant operation proceduresd an s , coal handlin d preparationgan , cooling water system, water treatment system, fire protection system, wastes, emissions and effluents, contingenc abandonmend yan t plans includede ar , . discussinn I g site meteorology, wind spee directiond dan , temperature, relative humidity, pressure and rainfall over a four-year period (1984-1987) e providedar . Atmospheric stabilitie e likewisar s e given. Specific impacts documented include r qualiteffect ai a resul n s o f a ygaseouso t s waste emissions from the BCFTPP-1 plant stack and coal dust generated from the stockyard. Data were obtained from actua r qualitai l y monitorind an g measurement/calculatio f pollutanno t emission dispersio mathematicay nb l modelling.

153 TABL . DATA/INFORMATIO1 E N REQUIREMENT ENERGR FO S Y PROJECTS UNDE E PHILIPPINRTH S EEI SYSTEM

Data Needs

Cost- s (TotalProjec Projec Mitigatind tan tDescriptio g Costsn ) - Generating, handling and treatment capacities (daily/yearly basis) Require- d volume water sfo r supply - Volume rated san f emissions/effluent so s - Raw material supply -Etc.

Geolog- y Site Description Hydrolog- Wated yan r Quality - Meteorological Data Qualitr Ai - y - Terrestrial/Aquatic Biota Socio-economic Description - Land Use Populatio- n densities Morbidit- Mortalitd yan y Rates - Numbe affectef o r d households

Specific emissions monitored were sulfur dioxide (SO2); particulates (stack releases, coal handling releases); nitrogen oxides; carbon dioxidd ean hydrocarbons. Ambient air quality data included SO2 levels, particulates concentratio Mg)d an . i L , tracd Pb n an , e metalCa , Cr s, (AlAs , predico T t ground level concentration sulfuf so r dioxide, particulates nitroged an n dioxide emissions qualitr ,ai y computer models were developed. predico t s firse Th wa tt short-term releases fro mcontinuoua s point source and the second, to predict long-term releases from an isolated point source. simulato T e transpor dispersiod an t r pollutantai f no s fro ma stationar y source Gaussiae th , n dispersion mode useds wa l . Prediction of short-term SO ground concentrations were made under

six atmospheric stability condition2 s (Table 2). Ambient ground level concentrations of air particulates and nitrogen oxides were computed using only condition 4 of the same table. Long-term ground level concentrations of both BCFTPP units were calculated based on long-term meteorological observation yeaa r rsfo (1986). Radioactivity analysis data of coal fuel was also included in the document as were radioactivity fractionation estimates of the various coal combustion products. Noise levels during constructio actuad nan l operatio plane th f nto wer e likewise estimated.

154 TABL . OPERATINE2 G DATA USE PREDICTINR DFO G AMBIENT SULFUR DIOXIDE, PARTICULATED AN , NITROGEN OXIDE CONCENTRATIONS FROM BCFTPP-I AND BCFTPP-II RELEASES

BCFTPP-II EIS: JUNE 1987

BCFTPP-I BCFTPP-I 1 234 5 6

Stack, Height,m 120 120 150 150 150 150 150

Type of Fuel:

% Sulfur 0.78 1 111 1 1

%Ash 14.47 25 25 25 25 25 25

GCV, Btu/lb 10980 7500 7500 7500 7500 7500 7500

Wind Speed, m/sec. varied with that of 4 424 6 6 BCFTPP-H

Plume Rise, m 2 mps - 72.4 4 mps • 362 33.8 33.8 67.7 33.822.6 22.6 6 mps - 24.1

Terrain varied with that of urban open urban urban urban open BCFTPP-II country country

Stability Condition varied with that of A. Extremely Unstable BCFTPP-n B. Neutral Other Assumptions:

StacW deg1 M k 0 14 GaseC . 30 s ExiPlan a t TemperaturtLo e Overall Plant Effluent 31% Combusti 1560 deg. Electrostati . 99 & ) Exces(I 9 ci 9 PrecipitatiosA 22.1n Effluen% % t % Ash to EP Hoppers 75 Gas Exit Vel., 30.82 Sulfu% r Goin Hopperh g witAs e m/sec, hth s MW .0 30 @ 2638

Socio-economic data included demography, land use, employment, income, public healt housingd han . Health data included morbidity statistics. 2 3 Geothermal Power Plants Geothennal power offers vast possibilities for the country and will increasingl utilizee y b comin e th n d i perio ge yearsth r d Fo .198 1992,358o t 3 MW has been projected for generation, bringing the geothermal capacity to 1,247 MW or a 15% contribution to the country's total installed generating capacit 1992y yb .

Over the years, more and more geothermal power plant projects have been subjected to the EIA requirement and on which environmental impact statements have been prepared.

155 Information containe n suci S dinclude EI h : pré-constructiod an n construction details, work force, plant facilities, special design features, raw material d sourcesan s , water requirement used an s , process flow, cooling system extractios ga , n system, emissions, effluent wastesd an s . descriptioe th n I environmente th f no , geology, meteorology qualityr ,ai , hydrology, oceanograph wated yan r qualit discussede yar , among othersr Fo . air quality, specifically, H2S, SO^, and noise data were presented and discussed r wateFo . r quality, other tha usuae nth l monitored parameters like disolved oxygen, dat n traco a e elements were also collected (cadmium, chromium, arsenic, leamercury)d dan . Background dat boronn ao , calcium, iron, lithium, magnesium, potassiu sodiud man m t provided levelno e sar . Major constituent geothermaf o s ) Ca ld effluentan i S , B s , (NaCl , ,K are determined and reported, as are most of the trace metals present in effluent samples (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and mercury). Arsenic levels are also given. For assessment purposes, such are compared with existing government environmental standards issued by the Department of Environmen Naturad tan l Resources throug Environmentae hth l Management Bureau. r projectinFo g biological effects, detailed survey f vegetatioo s d nan terrestial biota are undertaken and results included in the EIS. Such usually consis taxonomif o t c listing, census coun relativd an t e abundance. Socio-economic data include demography, land use, employment, income, etc. Early EIS geotherman so l projects t includusuallno d yedi data and discussions on health. These have been increasingly provided in more recent EISs, however. For example, in the EIS on the Palimpinon Geothermal Power Projec t(locate 2 Uni . tNo Valencian di , Negros Occidental) healtd han working condition healtd san h hazard discussede sar . Amon identifiee gth d factors are: hydrogen sulfide gas, noise, dust, potabilit f drinkinyo g water, illumination, radioactivity, toxic substances from sludge and scales, insulation materials, security and others (toxic fumes, high pressure steam lines, etc.). Morbidity and mortality statistics are likewise being increasingly provided.

For predicting ambient H2S concentration, a model based on the basic Gaussian dispersion model was developed, specifically adapted to the irregular topography of geothermal sites, such as that in Palimpinon. Table 3 is an exampl f resulteo f suco s h modelling exercise. Acid precipitation date aar usually derived from H2S monitoring data and measurement of pH of rain or fog within a 10 kilometer - radius of the geothermal field under study. 4. GAPS/FUTURE DIRECTIONS Although the quality and quantity of data in environmental impact statements have improved throug yearse hth , suc stile har l inadequat projeco et fule th tl range of impacts associated with energy development and utilization. Most dat e onlar a y utilizabl r predictinefo g short-ter r immediatmo d an e localized effects. Eve r sucfo n h purposes, projections t tacklusuallno o ed y occupational injuries to personnel. Accidental situations, too, are not, as a general rule, taken into accoun r discussedo t . Health effect e merelar s y inferred from comparisons with existing emission and effluent standards, which unfortunately, were

156 TABLE 3. PREDICTED SHORT TERM AMBIENT GROUND LEVEL CONCENTRATION OF H2S DUE TO PGPP-II RELEASE NASUJE TH T SIA SITE

PGPP-II EIS: APRIL 1990

Stability Condition: Extremely Unstable Distance Ground Level Direction ENE E ESE E SS SE S SSW SW WSW W WNW NW NNW N NNE NE 100 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 93.6 6 93.3. 6 6 3. 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 200 30.9 30.9 30.930.9 96.8 30.9 2.2 7.9 30.9 30.9 7.9 30.9 96.8 30.9 30.9 30.9 300 275.4 348 348 130.6 78.3 78.3 78.3 42.8 21.3 42.8 9.7 4 42.8 130.6 275.4 275.4 400 143.4 217 198.1 113.4 125.3 113.4 90.8 61.4 17 27.4 10.1 5.7 42 42 143.4 125.3 500 85.1 130 136.8 96.6 99.42 1 107.6 93.7 22.3 22.3 11 11.8 30.5 30.5 79.3 73.6 600 59.8 80.6 95.680.6 80.6 91.2 80.6 66.1 27.7 14.1 10.7 19.2 18.2 32.8 58.2 54.4 700 55.4 51.9 68.664.6 67 67 - 49.1 27.7 18.4 15.2 18.4 15.8 34.9 44.4 46.9 800 39.4 37.9 48.851.1 41.4 - 25.9 17.5 15.1 17.5 17.5 33.1 31.9 40.8 900 31.4 30.2 - 40.8 - - 22 14.3 14.3 14.3 22 26.5 24 32.1 1000 25.9 25.9- 32.1 - - 13.8 17.4 16 13.2 20.3 23.2 26.7 25.9 1100 20.4 20.4 - - - - 19.4 17.3 15.2 13.1 14.2 19.9 21 19.9 1200 16.5 18.6 - - - _ 17.2 16.5 15 11.8 10.3 16.5 16.5 16.9 1300 14.7 17.1- - - _ 16.7 15.3 12.8 12.4 10 13.6 14.2 14.2 1400 13.1 14.9 - - - - 14.6 13.5 11.9 11.7 9.6 12.3 12.3 11.1 1500 10.2 13 - - - - 12.3 12.3 11.1 10.9 8.6 10.6 10.4 9 1600 6.8 11.2 - - - - 10.7 - 10 10.3 8.1 9.1 8.9 7.5 1700 8 10.2 ------9.3 7.8 8.3 7.5 7.1 - 1 9. 5 7. 1800 ------8.2 7.4 7.6 6.7 7 Notes: (Applicable for all stability condition)

1. NPCC Ambient H2S Standard is 30 ug/scm (30 min.) 2. Prevailing wind directions: N, SE and W 3. Values are 5-minute averages 4. To get hourly and 24-hour averages, multiply predicted values by factor of 0.8 and 0.137 respectively. t drawexactlno p nu y taking into consideration local conditions inadequace Th . f yo past and current predictions are reflected in the emerging problems of energy projects - primarily unmitigated pollution. countre Th y must movbetteo t n eo r scheme impacr sfo t predictio energf no y developmen utilizationd an t t sucBu h. would necessitate better data baser fo s determinin broae gth d arra riskf yo s arising from such undertakings.

REFERENCES

National Power Corporation. "Environmental Impact Statement of the Batangas Coal-Fired Thermal Power Plan . (Quezot 2" Uni. No t n City, 1988).

National Power Corporation. "Environmental Impact Statemen e Palinpinoth f o t n Geothermal Power Project Unit II". (Quezon City, 1988). Office of Energy Affairs. The Philippine Medium-Term Energy Plan. 1988-1992. (Makati: February, 1989). Philippine National Oil Company. 1988 Annual Report. (Makati: June, 1989). Philippine National Oil Company. Energy Spectrum. (Makati: March, 1990).

158 DATABASE CONCERNING ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTF SO ENERGY GENERATION ON THE TERRITORY OF THE FORMER GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

U. ZUPPKE Institut für Umweltschutz, Berlin

M. GROSSE Institu r Energetikfü t , Leipzig

Germany

Abstract

The features of a database concerning environmental impacts of energy generation systems on the territory of the former German Democratic Republic are introduced in this paper.

These include:

databank of the power producing industry (information on power economy which comprises the entire process of primary energy generation including conversion e brow th d dat n an no a e coaus l d mininan g industry suc s agricultura h d an e forestry acreage, areas for water management);

dat monitorinn ao g environmental impacts suc s emissionha s (dust, SO^ fluorine, chlorine, ammonia); immissions (concentration f harmfuso l sustances), wastd an e repositories (dumping sites);

dat environmentan ao l radioactivit radiatiod yan n exposure suc radioactivs ha e contaminatio environmene th f no artificiay b t l radionuclides, radiation exposure of the population and occupational radiation exposure;

data on health impacts (infant mortality, life expectancy, cancer morbidity, chronic bronchitis, respiratory diseases informatiod an ) diseasen no chemicao t e sdu r o l physical impacts,dusts,etc;

data on different types of accidents (at work, traffic accidents, during different activities).

The paper concludes by highlighting the need of developing of environment/health relevant data banks based on an internationally uniform methodology. Inter-disciplinary working groups shoul e establisheb d o furthet d r examin e structurth e e between energy-environment-health.

159 1. Introduction

The energy policy o-f the- former GDR was characterized by the drive -For independence -from energ d energan y y resources imports •from Western countries a continuou .o t Thi d le s s expansiof o- n local brown caal production disregarding cost e-f -f ecti venesd an s energy balance. This low—calori w brawra c n coal wit a hcalon-fi c value o-f SS00 kJ/kg has a relatively high sulphur content o-f 0.S" e coath in l deposite th n i e sElb . th 7 easf e 9 o- triver 1. d an , deposits wes te Elbo-th f e river. e structurTh primarf o- e y energy consumptio e countrth n i n i y 1988 clearly shows the dominant role o-f solid -fuels:

Solid -fuels 73.. 7 3 among them raw brown coal 69. 1 '•'. Liquid -fuels 13.. 27 . 7 5 9. Gaseous -fuels Other energ, 7 y5 resource3. s among them electric energy •from nuclear power 3.0 7,.

e higTh h shar solif o- e d -fuels ,w brow abovra s it l n al e coa d an l re-fined products, is re-fleeted also in the structure o-f the energy supplied/final energy. Also here solid -fuels take th e •first place with 37.6 7.. The shares o-f other energy resources in supplied energy consumption are: Thermal energy 23.. 7 6 Electric energy 14.3 7. Fuels (gasoline) 13.. 67 . 7 5 9. Gases Liquid -fuels 0.S % Others 0.6 7. .

This energy resources structure, the use o-f energy resources in o-ften inef-ficient and largely worn energy conversion plants not equipped with appropriate device o t sprotec e environmenth t t (dedusting, desulphurizatio d dén cat-an nfi i itr n idevices)o n a d an , i11—conceived pricing policy entailed annual emissions into the atmospher f abouo- 5 millioet n ton f sulphuso- r dioxide3 2— , million ton dustf d so- 400,000-500,00 an , 0 ton nitrif o- s c oxides. Such emissions o-f harm-ful substances resulted in loads on and hazard o eco-systemsst particulan i , r -forests d publian , c health.

In 19S9 36.6 7. o-f the GDR population lived in areas with temporarily inadmissibly high loads o-f sulphur dioxide, and 26.3 X live n areai d s with inadmissibly high load dusf so- t (i.e. more than 0.3 mg/m"~ o-f SO^ and more than 300 mg/m"" o-f dust). Especially in the winter months limit values were constantly exceede denseln i d y populated areas (big cities). That gave rise also smot og situations -followe n increasa y b d n i respiratore y and cardio-vascul ar diseases. At values o-f l mg/m"" o-f SO^ over three days a mortality rate increase was registered. A growth o-F acute respiratory diseases in adults was „observed above 0.S mg/m'^o-f SÛ2 ? ann childrei d n abov 6 mg/m0. e f S02°o- - Exposures over variou o t 0.7s7 mg/m" 0. SÜd dayf 5o 2an o- "t s mg/mf o- ° airborn n increasea o et d dusdle tmortalit y rate among older people. Such situations occurred repeatedly throughout the year

160 during heating periods (when also household e predominantlar s y •fired with brown coal). Studies showed that in the exposed town a-f Halle 35 to 45 years old men had the same coughing symptoms as 60-to—65-year-olds in the relatively low exposed town a-f Schwerin.

. 2 National data bant n energyo s ,e environmen healtth d an h t

To monitor and assess those environmental and health impacts, e -followinth g surveys were mad d centraan e l data banks run:

2.1. Data banks o-f the power—producing industry e power-producinth In g industr e -farmeth f R speci-fia- yGD r c data -funds/statistics related to groups o-f products were prepared annually and stored at the Institute o-f Energetics. The -following two data banl s are o-f particular relevance:

a) The data bank on power economy. This data bank comprise e entirsth e proces f primaro- s y energy generation including its conversion and use. It is broken down by energy resources, territories and ministries, and consists o-f the -following seven components: 1. Overall assessment 2. Production and consumption o-f primary energy . Energ3 y consumptio e variouth f o- n s areas A. Supplied energy consumption . Energ5 y conversio d transporan n t . Suppl6 y with energy resources 7. Power-producing industry and the environment.

A detailed list o-f the total contents is given in Annex 1. The input data were provided by the respective power producing enterprises e datTh .a were e Institutstoreth t a d e a-f Energetics and prepared according to the above components.

b) The data bank o-f the brown coal mining industry. This data bank comprises technological, economid an c environment speci-fic data o-f raw brawn coal mining and re-fining on the territory o-f the -farmer GDR. It consists o-f seven parts (productio nw browo-ra f n coal, productiof o- n briquettes, power stations, economy, speci-fic costs, maintenance). In-formation on area utilization should be particularly mentione thin i d s connection s subdividedi t I . , accordino t g the type o-f area, into . agricultural acreage, forestr. y acreage, . areas used -for water management, othe. r usable space; d accordinan g to.the legal title, into . non—company usage, company—owne. d areas.

161 The data of the various parts are broken dawn by technologies, production sites and enterprises. The data are provided by the coal industry companies, the Lausitzer BraunKohlen-AG being responsible -for their collection and preparation.

2.2. Data on environmental monitoring

For monitoring the environmental impacts the data bank "Environmental Protection" (DASUS) has been extablished which is subdivided into three parts: emissions, immissions, and waste reposi tones. DASUS is run by the former Institute o-f Environmental Protection o-f the -former Ministry o-f the Environment, Nature Conservation, Energy d Reacto,an r Sa-fety. e -followinTh g attribute d relationan s e coveredsar :

) a Emissions:

. Dust -from power generating plants (ton r year)pe s ; . Dust -from manufacturing plants (ton year)r spe ; . Sulphur dioxide from power generating plants; . Sulphur dioxide from manufacturing plants; . Nitric oxides (NO .,) from power generating plants; . Nitric oxides (NQ. ,fro) m1 manufacturing plants s wela ,s a l . Fluorine, sulphur compounds (without SO-O , carbon monoxide, chlorine/hydrogen chloride, ammonia/amines, hydrocarbons.

These data have been available since 1976.

b) Immissions: Concentrations of harmful substances (microgram per m°). Measured values as: arithmetic means, max i mum daily mean s, frequency of exceeded limit values, monthly means, decile d quanticsan s . Model values: 25—km—modules.

These data have been available since 19S4.

c) Waste repositories:

Deposited waste products containing harmfu r o toxil c substances: dumping sites, typd quantitan e f wasto y e products (tonr spe year), main substances contained therein.

These data have been available since 19S4.

162 The data sources -for DASUS are: . Emission reports preparee enterpriseth y b d s under supervision o-f the -former National Environment Inspection; . Immission networe -formeth f ro k Meteorological Service and Hygiene Inspections; . Application procedure -For disposal o-f waste products containing harm-fu r toxio l c substances.

2.3. Data on environmental radioactivity and radiation exposure

The radioactive contamination o-f environmental media in the vicinity o-f nuclear power plants, in mining areas and on the whole territory o-f the -former GDR as well as occupational radiation exposur f workero- e s e measuredwa th s d an , radiation exposure o-f the population was assessed, under the responsibl ity o-f the -former National Board -For Atomic Sa-fety and Radiation Protection (SAAS w incorporate,no d e intth o Federal Agency -for Radiation Protectio f Germany)o- n e Th . data obtained were centrally SAAe storecoverd th S an t a d:

1. Radioactive contaminatio e environmenth f o- n t y b arti-ficial radi onuc ldesi : . emission d immissionsan s -from nuclear -facilities, . impacts -from the Chernobyl reactor accident, . global -fallout, . radioactivit Baltie th n ci y Sea; by natural radioactivity . natural radioactivity in rocks, building materials, buildings, industrial by-products, phosphate •f erti 1 izers, . emissions -from uranium mining and milling, other mining activities, and -f ossi 1—fuel led power stations,

2. Radiation exposure o-f the population by . emissions -from nuclear facilities, . the Chernobyl reactor accident, . global -fallout -from nuclear weapons tests, . sta buildingn i y the.open n i d an s , . emissions -from mining operations, -fossi 1—fued lle power station othed san r sources.

. Occupationa3 l radiation exposure t nucleaa r -facilities radiof o- e i sotopeus , d ionizinsan g radiation in research, industry, and medicine (with the exception o-f patient exposure by diagnostic and therapeutic measures).

2.4. Data on health impacts

To assess the correlations and impacts o-f environmental pollutio n publio n c health, medical statistics -files kep o s t-fa r causede b n . They cover: . In-fant mortality, . Life expectancy, . Cancer morbidity, 163 . Chronic bronchitis, . Respiratory diseases. These data were registere t publia d c health -facilities, reported o centrat l bodie d condensean s d there. The register o-f occupational diseases can also be used to detect correlations between exposure and health. That register was also e Nationath kepy b tl Hygiene Inspection coverin e -followinth g g di seases: . Disease chemicao t e sdu l impacts, . Diseases due to dusts, . Disease physicao t e sdu l impacts, . Diseases caused by infectious agents and parasites, . Diseases caused by overstraining the locomotor system, . Other diseases. At leas e firs o th groupt tw t f diseaseso e use b o t assesdn ca s s the correlations between exposure and health.

2.5. Data on accidents

e InstitutTh f Energetico e s also kep a registet f accidento r n i s e power—producinth g a dat industrn a ra ban n d o accidentkan y s covering: Accidents at work, Accidents on the way and traffic accidents, Accidents suffered during other activities.

To assess the stat§ o.f forests, the vitality of forests is registere fivn i d e stage y forestrsb y facilities healthy= 1 : 5 , = dead. The data of the areas covered are centrally stored and evaluate e Forestrth y b d y Board.

. 3 Some environmental fact f poweo s r generation base n o browd n coal

By using the above data pools conclusions can be drawn concerning the impacts of power generation based on brown coal.

3.1. Emission f harmfuso l substances

In 1939 the following emission rates of harmful substances related to area and number of inhabitants were registered: . 4S.00 tons of sulphur dioxide per square km and 0.31 tons of sulphur dioxide per inhabitant; . 19.00 ton f dussquard r so an pe t m k e 2J. 12 tons of dust per inhabitant. From that power generation accounted for: . 40.40 ton f sulphuso r dioxid d squarr an pe e m k e 0.26 tons of sulphur dioxide per inhabitant; . 14.40 tons of dust per square km and 0.09 ton f dusr inhabitantso pe t .

Emission e varioushareth f so s producer groups were: . Power generatio f duso . f SO-7 to . 4 7 n«5 plant9 7 s . Manufacturin. 7 1 g2 plants (industry . 7 5 )

164 3 '/. . 7 2 . Small consumers . Other enterprises 77. 15 " "/7 . . 77 . Domestic -fuel f browo n nto coa r Pe l used -for power generation 14.6 kg o-f 30,d 2an g a-fk dus2 5. t were produced. r giga—watPe t hou electrif o- r c energy produce n thermai d l power d plantan 2 O S s f 41.o- 7t dusf o- 14.t t 9 were emi±ted.

3.2. Area losground an t d water management The area lost duetto open-cast brown coal mining since 1965 comes to about 667 km". Only 76 7. have been reclaimed so -far. That means a heavy loss o-f living space and impairment o-f environmental conditions. For drainage o-f the mines the_ground-water level had to be lowered o achievT . e that 5.5e hoiste b o-" fr 5o m' t wate pe dd ha r ton o-f produced raw brown coal. That lowering a-f-fected the drinking water productio e neighbourinth d an n g eco-systems (e.g. •forests) .

4.___Remark e datth sf a concernino- bank e us s e th g e acquisitionTh , storag d assessmenean e abovth f e to- dats wa a per-forme y b centrad l agencies designatee th -forme y b rd government. Enterprise reports based on questionnaires authorized e governmenth by t wer e eth Nationa seno t t l Statistics Administration. Environmentally relevant data were previouslt no y allowed to be published. They were accessible only to a strictly con-fined circl f user o- d ecoulan se b utilized d only -for o-f-ficially relevant tasks. They were mainly intended -for reports o ministriet e governmentth r so . Parthosf o- t e dat s usewa ad also •for international reporting required under rati-fied conventions (e.g. ECE, IAEA). For many years the -following reports have been prepared: . Energy report Ministre th Coao Energyd f st an o- ly ; . Annual emission reports by the Ministry o-f Environmental Protectio d Watean n r Management; . Monthly and annual immission reports by the Ministry o-f Environmental Prptection and Water Management; . Annual air hygiene reports by the Ministry o-f Public Health; . Annual reports on the handling o-f repositories -for toxic materials by the Ministry o-f Environmental Protection and Water Management; . Annual radiation protection reports and reports . on environmental radioactivit e Nationath y b y l Boarr fo d Atomic Sa-fety and Radiation Protection; . Annual reports by the Ministry a-f Public Health on e occurrencth certaif eo- n disease d accidentsan s .

165 All these reports were classi-fied unti t laccessibl no 193 d an ? e to the public. The first environment reportes (as of 198S) were published in March 1990. e datTh a bant-s described above were developed unde e speciath r l condition e -formeth f R requirino- GD sr g central registratiod an n assessment. They were made possible by centralist economy managemen d intende n an instrumena t s a d f centrao t l management and planning.

The registration of this kind of data under market—economy condition o havt differen a es ha s t objective. e Becausth f o e federal structur unifiee th f eo d German e preconditionth y e ar s also different. Therefore at present there are certain uncertainties regardin continuance th g d furthean e r operatiof o n those data banks.

It must be stated, however, that it is necessary to continue registerin d storinan g g thos y correspondinwa e a dat e n i ath o t g w circumstancene e ablorden b i o st o purposefulle t r y improve environmental condition o t tak d e an sthe m into accounn i t investment measures same th et A .tim n importanea thee ar y t basis r sitinfo ge preparatio th decision r fo d f o an snguideline d an s 1 aws.

Therefor e authorth e s tak e liberteth f makino ye followinth g g recommendations to the Tecnnical Committee: 1. Developmen f environmeno t t relevant data banksn a base n o d internationally uniform methodology or nomenclature is a precondition for uniform assessment, comparability as well s exchanga , therefore f datais o e d an , , highly desirabld an e strongly supported. 2. A relevant methodology should be developed for application in all Member States of relevant UN organaizations.

3. Inter-disciplinary working groups (consisting of specialists from the power-producing industry, environmental protection, and medicine) shoul e establisheb d d wit a vieh o t furthew r examin e cause-effecth e t structure between energ- y environmen health- t .

166 ANNEX ENVIRONMENTAL COMPLEX BALANCE FOR THE TERRITORY OF THE FORMER GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC

Survey of selected figures of the national and energy economy Energy R flowGD e charth f o t Primary energy balance survey and pattern of the primary energy consumption Productio productiod nan n pattern Imports and imports pattern Discharging Will, stocking Wil, balance othef so r production/other consumption Exports and exports pattern Stocks 1989 primary energy balance Primary energy net calorific values Primary energy balance (quarterly) Quarter-value f primarso y energy consumption, mediu temperaturr mai degred ean e days 1989 interlocking calculation to the energy balance of the GDR (in units of quantity) 1989 interlocking calculatio energ e unitn th (i f heatsno o R t y balanc)GD e th f eo Figures of energy conversion processes Selected production figure power sfo r stations broken dow sectorno t s 1989 capacity increase powesn i r stations 1989 capacity decrease powen si r stations • Energy supplied (actual) broken down to sectors and sources of energy Source of energy balance Anthracite Source of energy balance Total hard coal coke Source of energy balance Metallurgical coke Sourc f energeo y balance Blast-furnace coke Source of energy balance Foundry melting coke Sourc f energeo y balance Industrial coke Sourc energf eo y balance Brown coa - higl h temperatur e- cok e Source of energy balance Brown coal - low temperature - coke Source of energy balance Run-of-mine raw brown coal Energie flow chart Run-of-min broww era n coal Sourc f energeo y balance Screened brown coal Sourc f energeo y balance Brown coal briquette Energie flow chart Brown coal briquette Source of energy balance Pulverized dried brown coal Source of energy balance solid fuels, total -TJ - Capacity balance electricit y- M W - short balance Decembe r- mai n control values- 1989 Utilized capacity electricit same th mai yt e- e M tim(a th W n s - econtro a l values) 1989 Utilized capacity of selected consumer groups of town gas Material utilizatio f sourceno f energso y Developmen towe consumptios th nf ga o t n including fue l utilizatiooi l binarn i - ysy stems town gas/fue l accordinloi supplgo t y sectors Development of the import natural gas consumption including fuel oil utilization in binary systems import natural gas/fuel oil according to supply sectors

167 - GOR Natura productios ga l n broken dow productioo nt n areas - Flat stoc heatind kan g type s- distric Dec1 3 9 t f .8 value o s a s- - Development of the specific heat consumption for residential construction - Developmen heae th t f consumptioo t n from public supply facilities - Development of the heat consumption from non-public supply facilities - Suppl selectef yo d source populatioenergf e so th r yfo n broken dow regionno t s - Source energf so y balance sourced s supplan r sfo yselecte- d solid fuels- - 1989 Regional breakdow fuee l th consumptionf no - selected solid fuel s- econom y- - 1989 Regional breakdown of the fuel consumption: funds of district councils und energy supply enterprises in total - Consumer-related account: selected soild fuels for district councils according to regions - Consumer-related account, selected solid fuel energr sfo y supply enterprises according to regions - Transport-related supply losses of solid fuels - Production/Mining of solid sources of energy - Average output per day - Average daily output of raw brown coal (rbc)-production of the Bitterfeld and the Senf- tenberg brown coal combine. - Source energf so y consumption withi Ministre nth CoaEnergr d yfo an l y range - Biogas produced and its utilization within the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Food range - Survey of prices for selected sources of energy - Sulphur dioxide emissions sectors and districts - Dust emissions secto districtd un r s - Nitrogen oxide emission othed pollutinr san rai g substances - degree days - selected abbreviafions - Energy supplied (basic consumption) broken dow sectorno t sourced san energf so y - Energy supplied (actual) - production dependent - Energy supplied (actual) consumptio nauxiliar- y consumption - Space heating consumption (actual) broken dow sectoro nt sourced san energf so y - Space heating consumptio industriae th f no l ministry ranges (actual) broken dowo nt sources of energy - Energy supplied broken down to sectors and sources of energy in the 1985 - 1989 period - Energy supplied broken down to the intended utilization - Population's energy supply (in units of quantity and PJ) - Energy basic consumption of the population for space heating and other consumption - Actual energy consumption of the population for space heating and other consumption - Flat stock broken varioudowe th no t s type heatinf so g - Specific energy consumption for space heating of the population - Population-gas basic consumption broken down to the household processes - Standard specifie th f so c energy consumption - Development of energy-intensive processes in the national economy - Energy consumptio thf no e sectors (actual )P- J- - 1989 energy consumtion of the sectors (actual) - units of quantity - - Energy consumption difference sectore th f so 198n si 9 compare previoue th o dt s year - Pattern of the energy consumption broken down to consumers and sources of energy groups

168 Source of energy balance Electricity Energy flow chart Electricity Sourc f energeo y balance Heat Source of energy balance District heat Source of energy balance Town gas Source of energy balance Indigeneous natural gas Sourc f energeo y balance Import naturas ga l Energy flow chart Import natural gas Sourc f energeo y balancG eLP Sourc f energeo y balancl eOi Source of energy balance Brown coal tar Source of energy balance Brown coal low-temperature carbonization light and medium oil Sourc energf eo y balance Fuel oi l Energy flow chart Fuel oil Sourc f energeo y balanc l residueOi e Sourc f energeo y balance ligh marints a fue l oi l e propellant mixture Sourc f energeo y balance Aviation-Otto-fuel • Source of energy balance Aviation-turbine fuel Sourc f energeo y balance Motor petrol Source of energy balance Diesel fuel Source of energy balance Technical petrol Source of enetgy balance Total hard coal Sourc f energeo y balance Total energetical hard coal Sourc f energeo y balance Sorted energetical hard coal • Sourc f energeo y balance Fine hard coal • Sourc f energeo y balance Hard coal usefu r cokinfo l g

Next page(s) left blank 169 IAEA ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DATABANK

International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

Presented NovakI. by

Abstract

brieA f outlin IAEA-Energe th o et Economid yan c Databan incorporates ki n di this Working Material. The databank is a collection of information and data gathered from UN-sources, OEC othed Dan r international organizations. Amon informatioe gth n contained in the database are data on population, energy, electricity (nuclear and non-nuclear), economics of electricity generation. Information as historical and future value energn so y refer productiono st , imports, exports, stock l fueal lf so type totad san l energy consumption values are included. Electricity sector includes historical and forecasted value n installeo s d capacity, production, imports/export f electricityo s . Database contains relevant information for countries as well as regional/world levels.

INTRODUCTION

The Energy and Economic Databank is a collection of data gathered from sources both externa d interna an e lIAEAe th Th .o t l data is related to world-wide (and individual country) energy consumption and production, and also contains economic and demographic statistics.

Major external sources include the UN Statistical Office, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The IAEA itself provides data related to nuclear power reactors and to nuclear electricity production.

e Databan Th t onlno a collectioys i k f historicao n l datat bu , also contains projected forecast e futurevalueth r sfo .

A major use of the Energy and Economic Databank within the IAEA is in the field of forecasting future nuclear potentials for individual countries and country regions. It is also used to produce IAEA publication d statisticaan s l analyse e fielth f o n di s nuclear power reactors.

The Databank has been installed on the IAEA computer utilizing a commercial database management system (ADABAS). The data base system allow e Databanth se accesseb o t k d using computer terminals.

171 SOURCES OF THE DATABANK

There are four types of sources for the Databank. These are: Major internal (IAEA) sources Major (machine readable) external sources Minor external sources Internal (IAEA) forecas calculater o t d sources

Major internal (IAEA) sources The IAEA maintains a number of computerized information fields date oth na base management system. n integraa Thes e ear l parf to the Databank. They have an independent existence but are designed so as to be able to connect with (and contribute to) the Databank. r instanceFo Divisioe ,th Nucleaf no r Power maintainsa computerized "Power Reactor Information System". This has data relatincommerciae th l gal l nuclear power worlde plantth t I n .i s records the type, capacity, construction details, and yearly operating data on a plant by plant basis. All this information is available directl Databanke usero th t y f so n addition I . , somf eo the data is accumulated by country, and is contributed to the Databank.

Major (machine readable) external sources

Ther mane ear y organization worle th dn i sgatherin d an g disseminating statistics. Statistical data related to energy and economics for countries and regions are required by the IAEA to assis forecastinn i t g nuclear power growt d requirementsan h . While the IAEA is concerned only with the field of nuclear energy, forecast modeld san nucleaf so r power requirements canno carriee tb d out in isolation. Nuclear power must take its place within the framework of total energy requirements.

e IAETh A doe itselt sno f gather "non-nuclear" data t rathe,bu r subscribe alreado t s y existing external sources.

A number of organizations provide regular computer readable (usually magnetic tape) data files coverin mosr o tl al gcountrie n i s the worl d containinan d g energ economid yan c statistics.

date Th a from these major external source e loadear s d directly e Databanith n k changing onldate th ya forma o confort e th o t m Databank (and ADABAS) standards. Each major external source utilise e IAEth A y wilb d l hav portioa e n (filee Databanth f )o o t k itself.

Major external sources include:

N StatisticaU e Th l OfficYorw Ne kn i e Worle Th d Bank 172 OECD Worle Th d Energy Conference.

Minor external sources

Other external sources do not come in regular and convenient (that is computer readable) form, and may not cover a large number of commoditie r countrieso s .

These source usualle sar y "piece paper"f so . They woule b d pages from a book or perhaps data emanating from a conference or working group.

It is not possible to allocate a separate portion of the Databank to these items of data, and so they are stored altogether pare ion nt calle "workine th d g store". "workine Wheth n ni g store" retrievee ,b then n ca usee ca ynb operated d dan dan , don to contribute, selectively, to other parts of the Databank. Internal (IAEA) forecas calculater to d sources

The work of the IAEA includes making nuclear energy forecasts. Thi carries si usint ou d g computer "models" specially developen i d the IAEA modele Th . sDatabanke operatth date n i n th i a d n eo ,an turn create new data values which are stored back into the Databank.

It is in the nature of development work involving models that many sets of data may be generated before the parameters and algorithm of the model are decided upon. The results produced in e intermediatth e stage "workine storee th sar n i d g storee th f "o Databank. Whemodee nth finalizeds li resultf o t ,se s onl e wilyon l be retained and the rest removed. The final results then resident in the "working store" are reviewed and may then contribute, in full partn oi r otheo ,t rDatabanke partth f so .

CONSTRUCTION OF THE DATABANK

The Databank can be considered to have four parts. Some of these parts have been mentioned hinter ,o previously, at d . These parts are:

The major internal part.

This consist numbea f so filef ro s develope maintained an d y db the IAEA.

majoe Th r external part.

This consists of a number of files loaded from magnetic tapes received from external sources.

173 The working store part. This consists of one file only containing small sets of data received from external sources d set ,an IAEf so A developed forecas calculater to d values.

e summarTh y part.

This part has not been mentioned previously. It contains one set of data relating to all countries and commodities and represents the "best set of values" Data from all the other part s selectei s givo t e dvalu eon r eac fo eh commodity.

The summary part is, in fact, a file in its own right, called the Summary describes Filei nexe d th ,an t n sectioni d .

The Summary File

The Energy and Economic Databank Summary File is a file built from all the other parts of the Databank, such that it contains one importane valuth l eal onltr commoditiefo y s thawely tma l have several values from various sources.

It represents the "best known values" for each commodity.

r eacFo h country recor e ther on everr s fo di e ye th yea n ri higa valuw ( lo ho ea valupasttw recordd d ean ,an eacr )fo h yean ri the future.

Commodity Groupings Currently Covered Ther mane ear y commodities containe Databanke th n i d . This list below indicates only the major areas and the sources currently user theme datfo dhelTh s . i acountry y db , with historical values for each year fro mpresene 195th o 0t t date. Future values aren ,i general, stored also by country with an optimistic (high) and a pessimistic (low) value.

Population.

Historical Values, source: UN Statistical Office International Monetary Fund

Future Values, source: World Bank, StatisticaN U l Office, IAEA extrapolations

Energy.

Historical Values, source: UN Statistical Office Future Values, source: IAEA extrapolations

174 Production, imports, exports, bunker d stockl fuesan al l f so types.

Total energy consumption values.

Electricity (non nuclear).

Historical Values, source StatisticaN :U l Office Future Values, source: IAEA extrapolations

Capacity, production, imports and exports of total electricity.

Capacit d productioan y f differeno n t method f electricitso y generation (except nuclear).

Electricity (nuclear).

Historical Values, source: IAEA Future Values, source: IAEA extrapolations

Capacity and production for nuclear electricity generation. Numbers and capacities of nuclear plants operational, under construction, planne shut-downd an d .

Economic.

Historical Values, source: UN Statistical Office World Bank International Monetary Fund

Future Values, source: IAEA extrapolations

GDP, source: World Bank.

RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE DATABANK

The Databank is maintained by: e EconomiTh c Studies Section Division of Nuclear Power IAEA

Next page(s) left blank DESCRIPTIO METHODOLOGOF N CALCULATINFOR Y G HISTORICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ASSOCIATED CO

EMISSIONS 2

. HOCKINF . J G International Energy Agency (OECD) Paris

Abstract

The paper presents a methodology for calculating worldwide historical energy consumption and associated carbon dioxide emissions developed by the International Energy Agency. The data used are based on information provide in annual OECD questionnaires: oil, natural gas, solid fuelmanufactured an s d gases electricityd an , y B . introducing initial emissions factor elementd an senerge th f so y balance e databassth e generate 2 emissions CO dat n o a s with special emphasi e electricitth n o s y generation sector OEC4 2 . e EacDth f Membeho r countrie includee sar database e th n di wels a , l l OEC al e tota ar th s Dfo l countrie r threfo ed an distincs t regions (Pacific, North America, Europe).

Source of Energy Data e StatisticTh compilA s DivisioDB e e th annua f no l Energy Balance OECr fo s D Member countries commencing from 1960 and which run currently to 1988. The data shown hi the Energy Balances are based on information provided in four annual OECD questionnaires: Oil, Natural Gas, Solid Fuels and Manufactured Gases, and Electricity. The data represents standardized energy balance sheets expressed in a common unit of million tonnes of oil equivalen tOEC4 2 (Mtoes l al D r Membefo ) r countriess wella , ,is separatet I . d into specific regions, North America, Pacific and OECD Europe.

In convertin basie gth c commodata o at n uni partiaa t l substitution mode s beeha l n applied. Coal and gas are expressed in terms of the amount of oil that produces the same amount of heat, whereas hydro and nuclear electricity are expressed in terms of the hypothetical amount of oil which would be needed to generate the same amount of electricity hi conventional thermal power plants.

The most recent data is published in the LEA publication "Energy Balances of OECD Countries 1987-1988", OECD, Paris, 1990. Two other publications providing a further breakdown of statistics are "Energy Statistics of OECD Countries 1987-1988", OECD, Paris, 1990, and "World Energy Statistics and Balances 1971-198T, OECD, Paris, 1989. The former provides, amongst other things, the breakdown of crude oil into its various refined products. The latter has similar statistics to the EEA Energy Balances but for most of the rest of the World. Additional explanations of the terms and material described in this Paper can be found within these publications.

Selectio Date th af no

All 24 OECD Member countries can be examined, along with the sum total for all OECD and three foth r e OECD regions. These are Pacifie th : c (being Japan, Zealand)Australiw Ne d aan , North America (Canade USA th OEC d d an )aan D Europe (representin remainine gth g OECD Member countries). l yearal Dat r sa fo since 197 currentle 1ar y available.

177 -J 00

TABLE ON E

FEEDSTOCKS USE N PETROCHEMICAI D L INDUSTRY Unitsi million tonne« of oil equivalent 1 1 1 TIME/PRODUCT 1988. OIL 1980. NAT) 1988. TOT 198.OI3 L 1983T NA . 1983. TOT) 1978. OIL 1978. NAT1978. TOT 1973. OIL) 1973. NAT1973. TOT 1 1 1 _-_ —— r_|______COUNTRY 1 1 1 OECD 109.40 13.96) 123.36 100.14 11.21111.35) 111.28 10.20121 .48 114.70) 1.801 16.501 OECDEUR 45.95 9.39) 55.33 4 6.69 7.4644.15) 35.28 8.0843.36 39.04) 1.6240.66| PACIFIC 9 2 2 2. 0.94) 23.23 19.07 0.5519.62) 27.99 0.2128 .20 29.47) 0.1829.651 NORAMER 41.17 3.62) 44.79 44.37 3.2147.58) 48.01 1.9149.92 46.19) 09 1 . 46 AUSTRAL! 0.66 I 0.44 | 1.10)0.43J 0.43 0.061 0.49| 0.20.710 0.47J 0. 18 0.65 AUSTRIA 0.00 I 0.40) 0.40D.02I) 0.51 0.53) 0.02J 0.42 0.44 0. 15) 0. 12 0.271 BELGIUM 1 . 70I ) 20 '0.49 . 2 1 1.40J 0.54 1 .94| 1 .41 | 0.571 .98 1.73) 0 1 .73 CANADA 5 .90| 3.62) 9.52)3.25) 3.21 6.46) 3.72) 1.91 5.63 2.29) 0 2.29| DENMARK 01 0) 0| 0) 0 0 | 0 0) 0 0.20) 0 0. 20| FINLAND 0.63 I 01 0.63 D.66| 0 0.66) 0 .66) 0 0.66 0.43) 0 0.43| FRANCE 7.81 I 1 .95) 9. 76| B.91 2.199.11) 4.90) 2.06.912 5.57) 1 .50 7.07 GERMANY 10.95 | 1 .54) 12.4 I 91 3 . 1.4» 3 10.74) 8.91) 0.90 9.81 8.68) 0 8.881 GREECE 0.07 ) 0.101 0.17 D3 .1 )0.03 0.15) 0.140 ) 1 0. 14 0.12) 0 0.12 ICELAND 01 0| 0| 0) 0 0|00 0 0) 0 0) IRELAND 0| 0.44| 0.440)) 0 0) 0) 0 0 0) 0 0 ITALY 4 .631 2.011 6.64)3.66) 1.47 5.13| 3.38) 2.16.510 5.08) 0 5.08 JAPAN .631 2 1 1 ) | 0 3 21.6 I 3.64) 01 18.64) 27.50) 0 27 .50 29.01) 0 29.01 | LUXEMBOU 0 01 0 0 0 0 ) 0 0) 0 0) 0 0) NETHLAND 4.79 2.24) 7.03)«.45 1.3015.74) 6.28) 2.08.364 5.90) 0 5.90) N2 0 0.50) 0.52 1 . 0 0 0 0.12) 0) 0 0 0) 0 0 NORWAY 9 1 . 1 0) 1.19 13.951 0 0.95) 0.60 7 0.67 0.50| 0 0.50) PORTUGAL 1 .56 ) 0 1.561 3.34 0 0.34J 0.25 0 0.25 0.21) 0 0.211 SPAIN 3.72 0.10) 3.82) 2.76) 0 2. 76| 1 .88 0 1 .88 1.44) 0 1.44) SWEDEN 1 .07 01 1.071 3.94) < 0 0.94) 0.79 0 0.79 1.14) 0 1.14 SWITLAND 0.12 0) 0.12) 0 ) 3.11) I 0.11) 0.10 2 0. 12 0. 15) 0 0. 15 TURKEY .701 I 1 . )57 ) 12 . 0 3.42) 0 0.42) 0.40 1 0.41 0. 16) 0 0. 16) UK 6.11 01 6.11 «.62 0 4.62) 5.46) 0 5.46 7.38) 0 7.38 USA 35 . 27 0| 35.27 41.12 0 41.12) 0 44.28) 44.28 43.90) 0 43.90)

Hock./Feedstok/18-5-90 All fuelEnergA IE s e listeyth Balancen di s have been detailed: coal, oil, gas, other solid fuels, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, heat, electricity and their total. These fuels are then cross- correlated with selective elements of the Energy Balances to display the distribution of the fuels amongst the various end-use sectors. These are: Total Primary Energy Requirements (TPER) Electricit entrieo tw e ys th Autoproducerinpu f o t m (beinsu e gth f electricit o s d yan public electricity) Total Final Consumption (TFC) Total Industry Total Transport Total Other Within the industry sector, the end-uses can be further broken down into: irosteed nan l chemical including feedstocks non-ferrous metals non-metallic minerals transport equipment machinery minin quarryind gan g footobaccd dan o paper, pulp and printing wood and wood products construction textile and leather non-specified industry Within other, the end-uses can be further broken down into: agriculture commerce and public service residential non-specified other Within the transport sector, the end-uses can be further broken down into: air road rail inland water non-specified transport alsA o EE compile e Th s dat non-Memben ao r countries (see: 'World Energy Statisticsd an Balances 1971 - 1987", IEA/OECD, Paris , usiny 1989 b sam e d gth an )e methodology, carbon emissions for the rest of the World can be calculated. An example of World carbon dioxide emissions is attached at the end of this Room Document.

Purifying the data

Fro date mth a thas beeha t n selected, particular modification e madar s enablo et utilizatioe eth n of the statistics to calculate carbon dioxide emissions for the purposes of making policy analysis. Specifically: 1. The Energy Balances include a listing of non-energy use of energy sources. This includes the use of petroleum products such as white spirit, paraffin waxes, lubricants and bitumen. As their use is non-energy, they are not initially combusted. Non-energy use does not, therefore, contribute immediatel carboo yt n dioxide emissions. Therefore, from total primary energy requirements and total final consumption is deducted the figure for total non- energy uses acknowledgei t I . d that further dow fuee nth l cycle, non-energ wely ma l e yus mak ea smal l contributio 2 emissions purposeCO e th o nt r f Fo thi. o s s t possiblanalysino s i t ei s quantifo t y this contribution accurately .t exist i t thaSufficy t doebu sa si t t distoro t esno e th t results significantly. . Withi2 e totanth l industry Energe sectoth f o ry Balance sub-sectioa s i s n listing petrochemical feedstock para f chemicas o ta s l industry. This cover l oilsal , including naphtha, used withi petrochemicae nth l industry avoio T . d double countin emissiony an f go s y thama t come from these products, they are deducted from the total industry, total final consumption and total primary energy requirement columns s witA .h non-energy use, this metho f calculatiodo n is not 100% accurate as some additional emissions may be generated by the feedstock products themselves. Mtoesn naturad (i e quantitan s l Th ga )oi l utilizef yo feedstockn di s throughou OECe th t Ds i listed in Table One.

179 Calculatio f Carbono n Dioxide Emissions

theso t s Ii et modified energy balance tables thaemissioe th t n factor e appliear s enablo dt e eth conversio f milliono n tonnel equivalenoi f o s t into million tonne f carboso CO a uni f s o nta

emissions. This is done on both a country 2specific and regional basis. The initial emission factors utilized are those applied by the OECD Environment Directorate as recorded in "Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Energy Dimension", page 71. (A Working Paper submitted to the White House Conference on Science and Economics Research Related to Global Change, 17 - 18 April 1990) and shortly to be published. A full discussion of the calculation of these e founfactorb n d ca s within this document.

e initiaTh l emission factor basee ar s d upon primary fuel factor r lowefo s r heat values. Thee yar listed in Table Two.

Tablo eTw Initial Emission Factors Grams Carbon per Mega-joule Range (% +/-)

1 0. J 15 Natura s Ga l Oil 20.0 3.0 Coal 0 3. 25.8 Other Solid Fuels 0 >1 21.2

To calculate CO2 emissions it is necessary to first convert million tonnes of oil equivalent to

mega-joule multiplyiny b s 41.86y gb 810x 9, This figur s thei e n multiplie relevane th y db t initial emission factor and by 10" tou convert grams of carbon to million tonnes of carbon. The resulting values represen primare th t y emission factors thaappliee totae ar t th l o dt primar y energy requirement figures to obtain the carbon emissions. The primary emission factors for natural gas, oil and other solid fuels are represented hi Table Three.

Table Three Primary Emission Factors

Fuel Primary Emission Factor Natura s Ga l 0.64 Oil 0.84 Other solid JFuels 0.89

Because of variations in emissions among different coal types, it is preferable to apply differentiated coal emission factors when examining national dat r specifiao c OECD regionsr Fo . these purpose valuee th s s containe (DEA/OECDe th Tabln f dI o l pag5 eB- e17 ) aforementioned study have been applie expreso dt s difference i regionah s l coal properties. Theye areth r ,fo OECD Total 26.1, OECD Europe 26.6, OECD North America 25.8, OECD Pacific 26.2, and for Greece 33.1 and Australia 26.7. Within the regions, the regional emission factor for coal has been applie countriee th o dt s makin regione th p gu s wit exceptioe hth f Australino Greecd aan e which, for illustrative purposes, have specific emission factors. s possiblIi t applo et y average emission factor fuea o t ls suc s oil ha r coal .Fo , however, there casignificane nb t differences betwee heae nth tcoae factorth l d typean s s within regiond an s within countries. This wor vers ki y much preliminar thin yi s regard e intentioTh . bees nha o nt examine the emissions utilizing existing emission factors. It is hoped that emission factors, especially for coal, will be developed which take into account these problems.

180 Table Four Coal Regional Primary Emission Factors

OECD Total 1.09 OECD Europe 1.11 OECD North America 1.08 OECD Pacific 1.10 Greece 1.39 Australia 1.12

Performin above th g e calculations give primare th s y emissio Tabln i factort e ou r coa t fo sse l Four. e emissionTh r totafo s l primary energy requiremen e calculatear t multiplyiny db millioe gth n tonnel equivalenoi f relevane o sth y b t t primary emission facto givo t r e CO2 emissione th n i s unit f millioo s n tonne f carbono s .

Although there are no direct emissions of CO from nuclear and renewable energy, indirect CO 2

emissions form nuclear energy (uranium minin enrichmentd 2 gan durind an )buildine gth f go power plants s believei , significane b o dt . Okken(P t . TiemersD , a "Greenhous Emissios eGa n Coefficients from the Energy System -Two Methods to Calculate National CO, Emissions", Paper for IPCC Response Strategies Working Group, 28-29 September 1989, page 17). These emissions wil totae notee th b l ln di industr y figure hencd an s e fossil fuelse useth n di constructio f sucno h energy plant e include ar semissione th n di s inventory.

Delivered Fuel Emissions

When considering emissions further dow fuee nth l cycle s necessari t i , tako yt e into account bo'h the input of fuels into the production of electricity as well as the transformation and other losses. As such, a weighted emission factor is prepared for each country and each OECD region. The weighted emission factor distributes emissions which occur hi the transformation process r thoso , e thae los statistican ar ti t l difference othed an s r losses, proportionately amongst the various end-use sectors.

calculato T weightee eth d emission facto primare th r y emission facto s multipliei r Totae th y ldb Primary Energy Requirement and divided by the Total Primary Energy Requirement less all losses and statistical differences. These are recorded hi the IEA Energy Balances as:

statistical differences distribution losses s workga petroleus m refineries liquefaction coal transformation transformation i owe nus n industry other transformation losses

Thus weighteF E primar:F E d= TPEyx R /(TPE l lossesal R- )

It is this weighted emission factor that is applied to the end-use sectors: industry, transport and other, and to the different modes within each. It is also applied to total final consumption. By multiplying the Mtoe figure by the emission factor the emissions of carbon dioxide in million tonne f carboo s calculatede nar .

The non-energy uses defined hi the IEA Energy Balances have been excluded from the emissions calculation but their contribution to the losses in transformation and statistical differences are difficult to calculate. It is possible, therefore, that a portion of the losses are caused by non-energy use. This portion would still figure when the emission factors are weighteproducy ma d slightlea dan y inaccurate result. This distortio considereds ni , howevero t , insignificante b .

181 Electricity

The input of fossil fuels into the production of electricity is represented in as a separate entry entitled "ELINPUT". Emissions resulting from electrical productio e calculatenar e samth en di manner as for the end-use sectors. That is, each fuel input into the generation of electricity is multiplie s weighteit y db d emission factor carboo N . n dioxide emission e assumear s emanato dt e directly from electricity generated by nuclear or hydro, solar or wind methods. Thus, although one could look down the column showing carbon emissions for total final consumption for the OECD Tota r 198s beinfo a l 8 gl carbo al 8.43 f o %n emissions, this figure mus consideree b t d by taking into account the fact that 77.79% of electricity emissions for that year come from coal. All emissions on a fuel basis after Total Primary Energy Requirements must, therefore, take into accoun additionae th t l electricity emissions. Within each sector, electricity emission distributee ar s d proportionatel eace ratie us h th f oo o yt sector makes of electrical production. Total electrical emissions are calculated by summing electrical emissions fro foue mth r fuel sources e rati f Th .electricito o y delivere eaco dt h sector is listed in Mtoes under the column "ELECTR" and divided by total electricity recorded in the TFC row. This ratio is multiplied by total emissions from electricity and distributed accordingly. For data reasons, no account has been taken of the use of fuels for base or peak load applications. It is for this reason that electricity is not distributed on a fuel basis amongst the end-use sectors.

International Marine Bunkers arrangemene Th Energe th f o ty Balance s suci s h thaTotae th t l Primary Energy Requirement excludes international marine bunkers. These represent the quantities delivered to sea-going ships of all flags, including warships and fishing vessels. The consumption by ships engaged in transport in inland and coastal waters is not included as they fall under the transport sector element, inland water e potentiaTh . l emission generatee b s y thama t d from thil sourcoi s s notei , therefore, assigne individuan a o dt l countr s such, howeverya is t I . , represente totaa s da l figure indicatin amoune l helgth oi bunkern di f o t s within each emissione countrth d yan s that these would represent e quantit l helTh . oi i internationa dh f yo l marine bunker e Mtoesn th (i s d an ) carbon dioxide emissions from this fuel (in million tonnes of carbon) for all OECD regions and member countries is listed in Table Five.

s apparenIi t t that statistical analysis, suc s thisha s inheren ha , t inadequacie varyind an s g degrees of uncertainty. The problems involved in determining greenhouse gas emissions and the use of emission factors are discussed in Chapter 3 and annexes B and E of the IEA/OECD Joint Study and in other source material for this work, such as M.J. Grubb, "On Coefficients for Determining Greenhouse Gas Emission Factors from Fossil Fuel Production and Consumption", IEA/OECD, "Energy Technologies for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases", Paris, 1989, page 537.3. For the purposes of policy analysis, however, the methodology is proving to be extremely useful.

182 NVfe

BMNKEflS PECO

Million tooiiub ut oil

1 1 1 TIME/PHODUCT 1988. OIL IQB8.OILCARBI 191)3. OIL OILCAR198. 3 B| 1876.011. 1978 .OILCARB 1973. OIU 1Ô73.0ILCAHD) 1 1 1 ______!_-.,______« _ i .. . ———————————I COUNTHY 1 1 1 OECD 66.29) 47.131 53.12| 44.481 7I.IO| 6B.b3| 69.01 68.54) OECDEUR 32.221 26.981 26.30| 22.02| 34.B4) 29.17| 41.84 35.03) PACIFIC 5.45) 4.57| e.02| 6.72| I3.07| I5.79ll.70| | 18.06) NORAMEft 18.621 15.69) 18.601 I5.74J 22.29| 18.66) 8.21)7.711 AUSTRALI 0.66) 0.47| 0.60.681 1 l.40| I.I7| 1.50) t.79| AUS1MI| 0 A | 0 01 0| 0| 0| 0) 0| BELGIUM | I0 . 3 2.53.71 1 2.101 2.76) 2.3I| 3.052.65| ) CANADA 0.56) 0.47| 0.591 0.50| I.7S| 0| l.46| 0| OENMAHK 0.89| 0.7b| 0.451 0.381 0.49) 0.41O.bBlj 0 . 69 1 FINLAND 0.49| 0.411 0.67| 0.56) 0.26| 0.22| 0.07| 0.06| FRANCE 2.261 1.691 2.62| 2.I9| 4.76| 4.473.99) | &.34| GERMANY 2.271 1.901 2.4ÖJ 2.0BJ 2.79| 2,34| 3.02) 3.60) GREECE 2.07t l.73| 0.611 0.681 1.02|0.75 ) 0.8&I 0.8Q| ICELAN| 0 D | 0 01 ) 0 ) 0 | 0 01 01 IRELAND 0.021 0.021 0.05| 0.04| 0.06| 0.070.08|1 OB. | ITALY 3.I2| 2.621 3.2I| 2.68| &.50J 6.964.601 J 7.12| JAPAN 4.67| 3.9)1 6.971 5.64| 12.22) 10.24| 16.7614.03) ) LUXEMUOUR 0) 0| 0) 0| 0| 0| 0| 01 NETHLAND 10.60) 8.68) 6.121 6.80| 11.12) 9.31) 9.73) 11.62) NZ 0.22 0.19) 0.24| 0.201 0.36)0.26 J O.29J Û.3IJ NORWAY 0.41 0.34) 0.29| 0.251 0.43) 0.63O.361 ) 0.64) PORTUGAL 0.47 0.391 0.48 ) Î.40 10.5 1 7 O.48) O.UO) 0.671 SPAIN 3.22 2.70) 2.061.72) ) l.40| 1.171 t.3b1.14| | SWEDEN 0.66 0.551 0.551 0.461 I.OB| 0.90) I.I20.94) | SWITLAND 0.02 0.02) 0| 0| 0| 0| D| 0| TURKEY 0. 17 0. I5| | 0 0.090| 1 0 | OJ 0.07| UK 1.83 1.b3| 2.0011.671 2.581 2.161 5.35J4.4UJ USA 18.06) I5.I2| 18.201 15.24) 20.54) 17.201 9.21)7.7H

Hock./bunk«rfc/18-5-90 CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSION WORLE TH R DSFO 1988

COAL OIL GAS TOTAL

USSR 346.6 307.3 337.0 991.0

. EuropE e 309.3 83.3 50.8 443.3

China 530.3 89.0 7.7 627.0

Africa 89.4 70.2 15.9 175.4

L. America 22.6 183.9 43.1 249.5

Asia 193.9 157.3 27.0 378.2

M. East 3.3 113.0 47.8 164.2

OECD 1 027.1 1 255.2 464.0 2 746.2

TOTAL 5 774.8

1. Based upon total primary energy requirements. . Units2 : million tonne f carbono s . 03 O O) CO O Ï « O 7>O — (M in CO CO CM l» or SS»SSSSomSSt^»2 OOCO(O(o c - r Oo c C Oo t n i •f CM O O c o n i O ( o i oioor-iotoe— n «i — o t — o— l CU O m f» CO CO 1^ CM X o o IO CO CO O D ( D ( CD O( a (J co 7 CO (OCO — —CO— CMCO — CO CM CO CO 00 CO in CM CM 13 Ul c

03 CM O 7 0 OO OO O CO O (O (O O or O 7 CD — CD o 7 t-r-co oo

u — rn -i CM OOO — f- — OO o>o ooc I o o CO CO CM CO CO l- o "D O m o o — o c cocoointocoocMi7 CM — o n— O O O ) O —— in in co ai o C or oco in 7 CD — r-co7toior-cD«> — oin CO OCM C7O— C0 O0 J3 u 7 7 CO OOO CD CM < CO

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RESIDEN T o c « a z3 1 19B 8 | COMMPU B [ ONONSPE C 1 1 PRODUC T 1 1 TPE R 1 ELINPU T 1 TF C I TOTOT H | AGRICUL T

185 CARBON EMISSIONS FRO MN TflANSPPR I CRUD L OI E T SEÇTpR PHP-USE CONSUMPTION

COUNTRVt OECD TOTAL

Unitsi Million tonne f carboo « n

1 1 1 1 PRODUCT LPGCARB |AVGASCA MOTGASC| R B JETFUELC KEROCARB GASDISCB j RESIDCAR OTHCARB TOTOILCB | 1 1 1 1 FLOW 1 1 1 1 198 INTLC8. V IA 0| 0.00) 0 0 9 21.6 0| 0 0 21 .69) 19BB. DOMESAIR 01 1.37) 0) 74.65 0 o.ooi 0 0 76.021 1988. ROAD 5.52| 0) 463.15 0) 0.02163.84) 0.08 0.02632.631 1988. RAIL 0.001 01 0) 0) 0.0114.98) 0.53 0) 15.52J 1988. INLWATER 0.01 | 0) 3.60) oj o.ooj 8. 19) 4.84) 0 16.531 198 TRNONSP. 8 E 01 0) 0 0) 0) 0.76) ) 0 0.810.05J) 1988 . TOTCARB 5.53) 1.37) 466.64 96.34 0.03187.77) ) 5.60) 0.02763.21 1 1983. INTLCI AV 01 j o o.ooj 22.01) 0) 0) 0) 0) 22.02) 19B3. DOMESAIR 0|| 0 1.37) 61.76) 0) ) 0 ) 53.13) ) 0 1983 .ROAD 5 . 30) 0) 426.00) 0) 0.03)120.69 )) 0 562.100.08)) 1983. RAIL 0.00) 0| 0) 0) 0.01| 14.66) | 0 16.020.34)J 1983 . INLWATER 0.01 | 0) 0.37 OJ 0.01 j 7.08) 6.15) 0) 12.61) 1983 . TRNONSPE 0) 01 0) 0) 0) 0.73) 0.05) 0| 0.79) 1983. TOTCARB 5.311 1.37) 426.37) 73.77) 0.06143)) 17 . ) 0 655.676.62)1 1978. INTLCI AV 0)) 0 0.01) 21.89) 0) 0| 0) 0) 21.901 1978. DOMESAIR 0) 2.011 0 61.42) 0) 0) 0) 0 63.44) 1978 .ROAD 3.77) OJ 457J .38 0) 0.02103.76) )) 0 564.950.03)1 1978. RAIL 0) 0) 0) ) 0 0.01j 10.37 ) j0 19.960.67)| 1978. INLWATER 0.01) 0) 0.15) 0) 0.01| B.85J 7. 19| 0 16.211 1978 .TRNONSPE 0| 01 0) 0) 0|j 7 1 . 1 1.05) ) 0 0.13) | 1978. TOTCARB 3.77) 2.02) 467.53) 73.32 0.04133.03) ) 7.93) 0 677 .64) 1973. INTLCIAV 0) 0.04) 0) ) 0 14.44) 0) 0) 0) 14.48) 1973. DOMESAIR 0) 2.29) 0) ) 0 62.421 o| 0| 0) 54.71) 1973. ROAD 3.09) OJ 3B5.59J 0) 0.02)76.04 )) 0 474.780.041) 1973. RAIL o.ooj 0) 0 OJ 0.04J 19. 16) 1.36) 0 20.56) 1973. INLWATER 0.01 j14. 0 J ) 0 OJ 0.02J 9.B3) 8.46) OJ 18.44) 1973. TRNONSPE 01 0) 0| 0| 0) 0.27J O.OOJ 0 0.36) I 1973. TOTCARB 3. 10) 2.33) 395.73) 66.86) O.OB) 106.29) 9.95) 0 583.331

Hock./Trollc«r 18/5/90 PRELIMINARY ASSESSMEN E ENVIRONMENTATH F O T D LAN HEALTH IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR AND COAL FUEL CYCLES

YANG YIN, CHEN ZHUZHOU China Institutr efo Radiation Protection, Beijing, China

PAN ZIQIANG Burea f Safetyuo , Protection and Health, Beijing, China

Abstract

papee Th r report environmentae th n so l impact healtd san h effect f coanuclead o s an l r fuel cycles in China. Data of interest for China are presented in a comparative manner; epidemiological investigation Shanxn si i province indicate tha incidencee th t chronif so c pulmonary diseases and infant congenital malformation were apparently increased over the fall-out areas of coal-fired power stations and coal mines. The authors outline the framework of a research project on environmental assessment of nuclear energy and other energy systems maine Th . feature projece th f o st are: environmenta healtd an l h impacts of coal and nuclear fuel cycles, environmental impact assessment of coal transportation, cost accountin f nucleao g d othean r r energy sources, health risk assessment.

INTRODUCTION

Compartive studies on environmental impacts and health effects of coal and nuclear fuel cycles have been carried out for many years in China e radiologicaTh . l quality assessmen f nucleao t r industry for the past 30 years has been completed with the annual average collective dose equivalene t th 3 (AACDE2 man.S d f an o v) normalized collective dose equivalent (NCDE) of 1.6 man.Sv/GWa being obtained respectivel r coaFo l . fuey l cycle e NCDth ,E resulted froe radioactivth m e airborne emission f o coas l power statio s estimatewa n0 man.Sv/GWa5 f o d d furthean , r derivee th d corresponding AACDE of 2.8 x 10 (3) man.Sv for the whole country; and the AACDE for stone-like coal (a kind of low grade coal), from exploitation through to combustion and cinder utilization, was estimated of 2 x 10 (4) man.Sv. e enegth Mor yf o esuppl % the0 7 yn come from coal electricity and coal direct conbustion, which resulted in the China's atmospheric pollution characteristic of coal smoke, It was estimated tha 2 millio2 t n ton f sulfuo s r dioxid s dischargewa e d e atoraospherintth o n 1987i e d acian ,d precipitations over some

187 part of South China have caused forests decline, yield decrease of farmland, and erosive damage of bridges, buildings, and other varietie f facilitieo s d commoditiesan s . Epidemiological investigations in Shanxi province suggested that the incidences of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and infant congenital malformation were apparently increased over the fallout area f coal-fireso d power station d coasan l minese Th . greater number of excessive death among workers of a coal gas plant in Shanghai city was also found to be related to the serious pollutio f carbonizatioo n n particles. e endth Ie n furtheth , r reseac he comparativprograth r fo m e studie s introducei s d briefly. Coal is the traditional and most important energy source of China s outpuIt . t reached 1.08 billion ton n 1990i s , accounting e totath l f o eneg % y supply0 7 to . Coal power plants have e totath lf o produce electricit% 0 8 d y generation, e witth h remaining mainly from hydropower e nucleaTh . r energy programs have been implemented since 1980's, however e firsth ,t nuclear power station wilt comno le into operatio f o thi d ns en unti e th l year. The great amount of coal production and its relatively backward combustion modes have brought serious environmental problems, which have drawn more and more attention of environmentalist e futurth d d publicean ai s o enegT . y policy making and protect the environment from pollution, many research projects have been carrieo energo compart tw t e you dth e systems with regard o t theis r ris o t humak n being e preliminarTh . y results that have been released wile b summariee l th n i d following sections.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT F NUCLEAO S R FUEL CYCLE

After having developed for more then 30 years, the China's nuclear industry has become a complete industy system. From 1981, a long-tern research program was initiated, aimming at systematiclly collecting the data on airborne and liquid effluences from various facilitie f nucleao s r fuel cyclee th , data on environmental monitoring, and other related data to population, meteorology, hydrology, ecology, etc. o thas ,o t t giv a comprehensive e environmental quality assessmene th f o t entire nuclear industr f Chinao y . This progra s dividewa m d into two phases. The task for the first phase was focused on the healtd environmentaan h l impacts resulted from discharged radiologica ls basicallwastewa d san y complete n 1990i d . Onle th y assessmen n radwasto t e disposa d transportatioan l f radioactivo n e materials, as part of the work in the phase one, was left over until future. The main results obtained in the first phase were summarized in several monographs(ref 1,2). There are two important data, the annual average collective dose equivalent (AACDE) and the normalized collective dose equivalent (NCDE), which were 6 1. estimateman.Sv/GW 3 . 2 raan.S d an f o dv a respectively s showa , Tabln i n . 1 e e nonradioactivTh e risk assessmen nucleaf o t r industrs wa y arranged to be carried out in the second phase and will be finished in near future.

188 Tabl . 1 Normaliee d collective dose o publit s c near coal and nuclear power stations

B ref

coal power 40 100 9 coal power 54 80 90 10 coal power 2.38 98-99 11 nuclear power 1.6 80 1 Note . normalizeA : d collective dose man.Sv/GWa; B. radius of collective dose assessment, km, with the e poweorigith t ra n station; C. percentage collective efficiency of stack filter.

Table 2. Concentration of radionuclides in coal of China

concentration, Bq/kg samples ref U-238 Ra-226 Th-232 K-40

24 provinces 563 55 34 30 104 3 61 coal powe6 4 r stations 42.5 127 4 Yining, Xinjiang -high bituminous 8 coa9 l 42.4 52.5 5 -bituminou 9 s 32.coal 1 39.2 5 Zhejiang -stone-like coal 250- 3000 6

UNSCEAR 1988 Report 20 20 50 7

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF COAL FUEL CYCLE

CONCENTRATIONS OF NATURAL RADIONUCLIDES IN COAL Systematical investigations concernin concentratioe th g f o n Jionuclides in coal was carried out in 1980's. Table 2 lists e average concentrations of U, Th and K-40 in coal in China vRef 3-6). The data reported by reference 3 were based on coal samples from 2-1 provinces and autonomous regions (only in the absence of data from Guangdong and Tibet), and so are considered to be representative of the whole country. The data summed by referenc 4 come e fro majo1 6 m r coal fired powee ar r o plants d an s of similar representativeness o sete f tw dato ar s e a Th . apparently clos o eact e h othe d roughlan r o timetw ys larga s s a e that given by UNSCEAR 1988 Report (ref 7). The reason for this may be contributed to the higher values of concentration of these rdionuclides in soil in China (ref 8). It should be particularly pointed out that a kind of low grade coa Soutn i l h China, stone-like coal, bears exceptionally higher radionuclid extensivel s i f U-238o e d an , y usen i somd e areas . (re6) f

189 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPAC F COAO T L FIRED POWER PLANTS

As mentioned before ,f China' o abou% 0 s8 t electricity were produced through coal-fired power plants. As a measure of health risk to public, the NCDE around coal power stations are listed in e seeb nn ca froTablee s th e dosmA Tabl th e,. 1 erate s givey b n different authors range enormously from 4 2.3man.Sv/GWa5 o 8t , which could reasonably be interpreted from the different colledting efficiencie f filtero s s assumed (ref 9-11). Generally speaking e efficiencth , f filtero y r mosfo st existing coal-fired power plants in China is around 90 %, so the representative value 0 5 man.Sv/GWof s suggestedwa a e ordeon f ,o f ro whic s i h magnitude higher thae worlth n d average 4 valuman.Sv/GWa f o e , recommended by UNSCEAR 1988 Report. The reason for the high value n i additio ,e higheth o t nr content f o sradionuclide n i s coal of China, is mainly due to the higher population density and the lower efficiency of stack filters.

In 1990 e outpu,th f electricito t y from coal power plants was about 56 GWa, and so the corresponding annual collective dose equivalent due to airborne emissions was as high as 2.8 x 10 (3) man.Sv.

IMPACT FROM RADIONUCLIDES IN COAL CINDER AND STONE-LIKE COAL

Another important AACDe sourcth f Eo e amon e coath g l fuel e coacyclth ls i ecinder e discussew s .A d befor anothen i e r paper (re f coa o l% 12)e countr5 cindeth f ,f i o ry were r usefo d housing construction, the additional NCDE would be around 7.2 man.Sv/GWa. This value was estimated from the output of all large coal mines of the dountry.

Stone-like coa s extensiveli l y exploite d usen i soman dd e province f Souto s h China. However t givei , s verw combustiolo y n e seeb nn valueca fro s mA alst .i Tabl o , bear2 e s exceptionally high radionuclide of U-238, concentration of which varies from 25o 300t 0 0 Bq/kga results s A additionae . th , l collective dose to the inhabitants living in houses built with stone-like coal cinder brick was of about 276 man.Sv/a (ref 13,14), as listed in e entirth f I eTabl stone-lik. 3 e e coal fuel cycl s takei e n into consideration, including its explotation, combustion and cinders (used as building materials), the total AACDE was estimated of 2 ) raan.Sv(4 e orde 0 on 1 ,f magmitud o r x e higher than from coal power plants (re. f6)

IMPACT OF SULPHUR DIOXSIDE RELEASED FROM COAL POWER PLANTS AND OTHER COAL COMBUSTION MODES As mentioned above, coal is the most important energy source of China. Accordin e 199th 0o t g statistic f energo s y consumption structure, coal consumption amounts to about 76 % of the total of the country. Specially, the coal exploited in south part of China almost all bears high sulphur. Consequently, sulphur dioxside resulted from coal combustion becomes the most important pollution source, which is the main reason of acid rain over many

190 Tabl Additiona. 3 e l collective o utilizatiot dose e sdu n of coal cinde d stone-likan r e coal

.*._V»«^______«_« ——— «»««.«——— « 4__- ——— •- ——— ——— »••••• ^ ——— «M ^ ^ •- ——. ——— ——. V •» *__ I« ——- •» «I ——— ——— ——— ^.——— ——— «..^——— -»^-——— ^——.^——— ——————•"—— ——— - source collective dose, ref man.Sv/a stone-like coal cinder buildings 276 13 coal-cinder brick* buildings 20.4 1 9 exploitation & use of stone-like coal 2 x 10 (4) 6 - — — — — — — — _ . _— _ — — , _ _ — . - — — — — — — — • — — — — — _____*———— — — — — •— — — — . — —._ — »_. __— — — — _ e by-produc th e coa s th i l a gol * f westere do t th min n i en part of Hunan province.

Table 4. PH values in some cities of China

H valuP e f re — — ——— yea— — — —r— - -— city average minimum 0 5. < Qinda3.6u 5 1981-1985 1 3 3 4. Chongqi3.3n 2 1982-1984 15,16 Guiyang 4.36 3.7 1982-1984 15,16 Wuhan 3.74 1983 15 Guanzhou 4.95 3.42 1986 17 Wuxi 4.21 3.63 1988 1 8

citie Soutf o s h China, suc s a hChongqin , Guiyang, Guangzhou, Wuxi, etc. e Tablse , 4 e(re f 15-18).

Statistics showed that sulphur dioxside discharged to atmosphere is increasing from year to year, reaching 22 million tons in 1987, and about 27 x 10 (3) square kilometers farmland suffered from the acid precipitation and lost 400 million dollor r yeape sr (ref 19). Acidification of forests has been found in some area. An example is the mason-pine forest decline in Nasan region of Chongqin city, whic s beeha h n provee e causehigheb th o y t db d r concentrato f sulphuo n d acian d r precipitatoai dioxsid e th n i e n in that area (ref 20 ). Another example is the fir forest suffering seriously ove a largr e Emee th arei f mountaino a s (ref 16), s scenifamouit r c fo sbeaut d ancienan y t Buddhistic temples, where high conten f sulfue o b tracet y o rt ma d dioxid r ai n i e Chengdu city, the capital of Sichuan province, through medium/long range atmospheric transport. Acid rain also does great damage o sociat s l property. There was a typical investigation carried out in Chongqin city, where maintenance cos e bridgtth onlr efo yove r Jialingjiang rives wa r increase y b 40,00d 0 dollore metath lo st eac e hdu yeard an ; erosion resulted from acid rain, other public facilitie s alsswa o found to be damaged more rapidly, and losing 100,000 dollors a year therefrom (ref 19).

191 RESULT F EPIDEMIOLOGICAO S L INVESTIGATION

Several Investigations wil e introduceb l d her illustrato t e e the professional and public risk for the different steps of coal fuel cycle e investigatioOn . f thio n s n kini s carriewa d t ou d Yangquan district, Shanxi province, where ther are large coal mines and large coal-fired power stations. The results suggest that there exist n a significans t differenc f o chronie c obstructive pulmonary disease bewee e downwinth n d upwinan d d directions of the power stations, and the lung-cancer mortality in mining regions is somewhat higher than that in the urban area and the suburb of Yangquan city (ref 21).

Another investigation reporte n Shanxi d i e provincth s wa e Shentou coal power station, e exclusivwhicth s i h e pollution source of this area, of capacity of 550 MW, and with coal consuming of 2.26 million tons per year at present time. Within the fallout area of the station, the incidence of infant congenital malformation born fro June1 my 198,Ma 1 3 1984 o 1t was found to be 4082 per o.l million, much higher than the value of 1629 per 0.1 million for the control area {ref 22).

n I 1990 a professiona, l epidemilogical investigatios wa n reporte o t compard mortalite th e f workere o yth o worn i wh s k Shanghai s coaga generatiol ne th plano t f thao t t normal inhabitant f Shanghao s i citye standardizeTh . d mortality ratios (SMR) study showed thae workersth t ' excessive deathf o s lung cancer, liver cance d stomacan r h cancer were 118.48, 89.13 and 50.88 per o.l million. The high number of excessive deaths amons planga g t worker s relatee serioui s th o t ds pollutiof o n carbonization particulate e workinth n i s g area (ref 23).

Table 5. The comparision of standardized mortality ratio l millioo. (SMR r pe n) between worker s planga n ti s and normal inhabitants in Shanghai city (cited from Reference 23)

causes of death normal workers inhabitants total 633 1147 total cancer 152.64 487.90 lung cancer 32.38 150.68 liver cancer 21.68 110.81 stomach cancer 33.10 83.98

Several other investigations showed that inhabitants who directly, burn coal for cooking and/or heating sulfer respiratory tract disease more frequently. Lung cancer mortalit s beeha y n foun o havt da eclos e correlation wite domesti f th ho coa e lus c (ref 24).

192 FURTHER RESEARCH PROGRAM The worsening shortage of energy source is one of the most important factors that restrict the development of China's national economy. Thoug maie hth n coa e sourcar l t presena e t time for electrcity generation in China, nuclear energy would play an imortant roln i futuree . e Froviewpointh m f o protectint g environmen d publian t c e a projechealth th p u e havn t w o t,se e comparative studie f d o coanucleasan l r fuel cyclese Th . highlight e projecs followsa th f e o sar t : Environmenta d Healtan l h Impact f Coad o s Nucleaan l r Fuel Cycles ; Assessmen n Energo t d Environmentan y ; Database for Studies on Energy and Environment. For detail, please to see the Appendix.

REFERENCES

(Noter All references are in Chinese except 7) n Ziqian1Pa . t e al.g , "Radiological Environmental Quality Assessment of the Nuclear Industry in China over the past 30 Years", Beijing,1989. 2. Collected Work n o Radiologicas l environmental Quality Assessmen Nucleaf to r Industr e Pas Years"0 th f Chin3 t o yr fo a , n editeZiqianPa y b t al.de g , Publishe Atomiy b d c Energy Press, 1989. Qiushenu Li 3. al.t e g , "Level f Naturao s l Radionuclidee th n i s Coa f China"o l , FSNEE Proc. 1987. . 4 Institut r Nucleafo e r Energy Techniques', Qing^hua University, "Radioactivit 1 Larg6 yf o e Levelh Coal-fireAs Coan d i s an l d Power Station d Consequenan s t Environmental Radiation Assessment", internal report. n A Huimi5. t al.e n , "Impact f Coao s l Radioactivitiee th n o s Atmospheric Environment",FSNEE Proc. 1987. 6. Zhang Weiming et al., "RAdioactive Effects on the Environment followin e Exploitatioth f o gStone-lik e Us d an ne coan i l Zhejiang Prov." e publishedb o t , . 7. UNSCEAR 1988 Report, "Sources, Effects d Riskan , f Ionizino s g Radiation", 8. NEPA of China, "Investigation on Natural Radioactivity Level in Environmen n Chinai t o publishe(t " n Radiâti d . Prot.). u Rongc9F . d Sonuan g Miaofa, "Environmental Impact Assessmenf o t Airborne Radioactive Effluents from a Coal-Fired Power Plant", Radiât. Prot 3 .(1990 ) 199. i L Ruxianh . u 10 XinhuLi , t al.e a , "Radiological Impacf o t Airborne Effluents from Coal-Fired Power Plant in China", Radiât. Prot 1 (1990. . )30 11. Fang Dong, "Radiation Effect f Gaseouo s s Effluent from Pressurized Wate d Nucleaan r r Power Plant d Coal-Firean s d Power Plants", Proceeding f Firso s t Symposiu f Nucleao m r Energy and Environment of China, 1987 (called "FSNEE Proc. r short)fo 1987" . n Ziqian12Pa . al.t e g , Radiât. Prot 4 (1984. ) 241.

193 13. Li Suyun, "Additional Annual Collective Effective Dose Equivalent for Population living in Buildings of Stone- like Coal Cinder Materials", Radiât. Prot. 9(3) (1989) 235. 14. Zhang Zengguo, Radiât. Prot. 6 (1988) 432. 15Hongzheni L . , World Environmen 4 (1988t . )14 16. Wang Dechu d Zhaan no Dianwu, World Environmen 2 (1988t . )8 17. Quan Youqungu WenzhL d ean , e Presen"Studth n o yt Situation of Acid Rain in Guangzhou area", Environ. seien. of China, 9(2) (1989) 123. 18. Ji Zhongfang, Chen Songquan et al., "Preliminary Investigation of acid rain and its damages in Wuxi city", Wuxi Environmental Protection, vol.3-4, (1988. )32 19. Guo Mengxiong et al., "A New way to Solve S02 Pollution in China (part 1)", Environmental Protection, 3 (1989) 2. 20. Yu Shuwen et al., Environ.Science 3 (1988) 77. n Jiangchen21Su . t al.e g , "Inhabitant Health Investigation i n Yangquan Coal-Mine Areas", internal materials. 22. Shanxi Medical College, "Relationship between Environmental Pollution due to Shentou Coal Power Staton and Infant Congenital Malformation", internal material. 23. Zhu Huigang, Zhao Qiyu and Zhou Guodong, "Environmental Pollutio s Plants" Ga d Cancer a an n r ,fo s Environ. seienf o , China, 10(4) (1990) 314. . Che24 n Bingheng, Zhou Guodon t al.e g , Economic Developmend an t Environment (1988) 89.

194 APPENDIX

1. environmental impact (El) of coal power cycle 1.1. environmental impact assessment (EIA) of large coal power stations 1.1.1 analyse f o harmfus l substanc n coali e , coal cinder, airborne and liquid effluence 1.1.2 analyses of natural radionuclides (mainly U, Th, Ra, K) in coad airbornan l e effluence 1.1.3 analyses of natural radionuclides in coal cinder and liquid effluence 1.1.4 determination of Po-210 and Pb-210 in airborne effluence 1.1.5 particle size spectra and content of radioactive effluence collected by different stack filter-s f radioactiv1.1.o l E 6 e airborne effluence 1.1.7 El of other harmful airborne substance 1.1.8 El of radioactive and non-radioactive harmful substance in liquid effluence 1.1.9 El of coal and cinder piles f smalo d "specialA an lEI • 2 " 1. coal power stations ("special" here means higher concentraton of radionuclides in coal) f smalo 1.2. A lEI 1coa l power stations (sam s larga e e stations) f "specialo 1.2.A EI 2 " coal power stations (including "special" coal exploitation, electricity generation and coal cinder utilization) coaf o lA EI transportatio1.3 n 1.4 EIA of coal mines 1.4.1 radon daughters measurement d theisan r dose assessments f coad o coal-stonan l 1.4. A EI 2 e rubbis n i self s thea he - ar y burning f coal-ston1.4.o l E 3 e rubbish effluencf o 1.4. l E 4 e discharged during coal exploitation 1.5 epidemiological investigation around the large coal mines and coal power stations 1.6 EIA of small boileres and stoves f domestio A EI 1.c7 coal burning 1.8 investigation and assessment of carbon dioxide discharged and s influencit n greenhouso e e effect 9 1. investigatio f acio ns influencdit rai d an n e nucleaf o A EI r . fue2 l cycle, whic s beeha h n basically completed excep f radioactivo A t EI thae th te materials transportation (in progress) and the EIA of "three wastes" disposal (remain e donetb o )

3. energy sources and environment 3.1 cost accountin f nucleao g d othean r r energy systems 3.2 comparative EIA of various energy systems 3.2.1 health risk assessment 3.2.2 other aspects of EIA (greenhouse, ecology, etc.)

4. databases on nuclear enegy, other energy systems and environment 4.1 database f methodologieo s d parametran s n riso s k assessment 2 4. database n energo s y source d environmenan s t

Next page(s) 5 lef19 t blank HUMAN HEALTH EFFECT COAF SO L ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

W. KREWITT . FRIEDRICR , H Institu r Energiewirtschaffü t d un t Rationelle Energie anwendung, Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract

The paper identifies and quantifies in a systematic approach the human health impacts attributable to the production of electricity from coal in one region of Germany. Special attentio gives ni developmene nth consistena f o t t methodolog calculatioe th r yfo e th f no human health effects in view of creating a computer aided technique that will facilitate a standardized risk calculation. It concludes that for the case in hand, underground coal mining is the main source of occupational impacts but that public health risks are much more uncertai r pollutioai d nan n pose largese th s t potential risk. Models e havb o et developed in order to produce more reliable quantification of human health effects caused by air pollution.

INTRODUCTION e objective identificatioe Th studth e th e f yar o s quantificatiod an n humae th f o nn health impacts attributable to the production of electricity from coal in the present German/Baden Württemberg generating system.

Special emphasis was laid on the development of a consistent methodology for the calculation of the human health effects, so that in the future it will be possible to create a computer aided instrument that facilitate a standardized risk calculation independent of a specific site or a specific technology.

similaA r approach wilfuture usee th b lestimat o n dt ei environmentae eth l damages caused by electricity generation from coal.

1. CATEGORIES OF HEALTH RISK ESTIMATES

Due to the different consequences of health impacts and the different social groups affected it is reasonable to distinguish several classes of risks which are :

- occupational risks publi- c risks - risks from events with direct impacts, risk- s from events with medium-term impacts, risk- s from events with long-term impacts.

Late effects which occur withi nlifetima describee ear medium-ters da m impacts. Long term impacts like mutagenetic effect futurn o s e generations might constitut ecertaia n degree th f eo

197 total risks of an energy system. Regarding the coal energy system they are mostly assumed to be negligible in the literature.

These different risks ris e shouladdee th b k r t estimationdfo dno f the I .kepe yar t separate, the significance of each may then be determined in risk evaluation.

As a first approach, risk estimates are presented in the risk categories which were traditionally use formen di r risk assessment studies:

- occupational fatalities cause accidenty db s (direct impacts) - occupational fatalities cause diseasey db s (medium-term impacts) fatan no l - occupational disabilities cause accidenty db diseased san s which summarizee ar figure th n edi "worker days lost" (direct impacts) - non fatal occupational disabilities which occur after the worker is retired (medium-term impacts) - public fatalities caused by accidents (direct impacts) publi- c fatalities cause diseasey db s (medium-term impacts) fatan no l - public disabilities cause accidenty db diseased san s (direct impacts) - non fatal public disabilities caused by diseases (medium-term impacts).

For estimating the occupational risks this study uses statistical data from the German Workmen's Compensation Insurance e availablTh . e date classifiear a d accordine th o t g German "Reichs Versicherungs Ordnung" that defines occupational accidents and diseases as follows :

Each occupational accident that leads to inability to work of more than three days reportee b o t s d ha (reported accident). (The term "occupational accidentt no s i " exactly defined. According to current jurisdiction, an accident is a sudden, body damaging external. Its sudden appearance is the main difference from occupational diseases.)

Each occupational disease that leads to inability to work of more than three days has reportee tob d (reported disease).

Permanent disabilitie classifiee sar certaia s da n percentag f "reductioeo earninn i g capacity".

Occupational accidents and diseases that have to be compensated by a pension, compensation or death benefit are compensated accidents / diseases. Accidents and diseases compensatehave b o et thef di y caus ereductioa earninn i g capacitt a f yo . leas% 0 t2

On-road accident regardee sar occupationas da l accidents.

An occupational diseas regardes ei causs da f diseasdeate eo th f hi recognizes ei s da the main cause of death or if the person had been compensated previously because of reductioa earninn ni g capacit f moryo . e % tha 0 n5

The figure of "worker days lost per accident or disease" is an average value formed by the tota f occupationao l l accident diseases d numbee an sth d f losan ,ro t workinge houron r sfo

198 MATERIAL SUPPLY

PLANT DISMANTLING CONSTRUCTION

FIG. Proces1 . s coastepe th lf so energ y system.

year "workeA . losty rda " (WDL define s )losi e th t workins da g tim hoursonl8 L f eo y WD . indicate the absence from the working place caused by an accident or a disease and do not take into account the state of health of the affected person. Therefore, permanent disabilities cannot be evaluated using WDL.

Therefore, it was necessary to find more appropriate risk indicators. A study carried out by the German TÜV [Schaaf, 1986] defined an industry branch specific risk index based on the figures "Years Of Life Lost" (YOLL) and "Years with Reduction in Earning Capacity" (YREC) yeare Th f .los so t life expectanc difference th e yar ef deat o betweed e han ag e nth e hypothetith c lif f deatheo e reductioexpectance Th .ag e th earninn ni t ya g capacits i y normalize r exampleFo . reductioa % o d0 ,t fou10 f rn o years wite ar hreductioa % 5 2 f no assume yeae equae b on r o o witdt t l h. reductio% 0 10 f no

These indicator e regardear s s e evaluatiohelpfua dth n i l f mortalito n d permanenan y t disability. Figure 3 gives an example of how these indicators can be included into the framework, usinstudyV gTÜ ,figure e whicth f o s basehi 197n do 7- 198 1 statisticso T . represent today's conditions date th ,a updatede havb o et .

The different registration of occupational accident data in different countries is a severe problem concerning the transferability of the methodology. Coherent data input instructions definedhave b o et thao commoe s , th t n framewor countryy usee an b n di n .kca

Estimating public risks is a rather difficult problem. Statistical data concerning fatalities cause y accidentb d d diseasean s e sometimear s s available e matteth t rbu , becomes complicated if one is concerned with the calculation of public disabilities. Statistics give information about the quantity of injuries, but they don't say anything about their severity, which can vary considerably. For that reason many authors of risk assessment studies only work with fatality figures. But with regard to the aim of calculating the external costs of the coal energy system, public disabilities have to be quantified, keeping in mind that the evaluatio f thesno e data shoul done db e ver f y"Qualito carefullye us ye AdjusteTh . d Life Years" (QALYs publia s )a c health indicator might helpfue b quantifyinn i l fatan gno l health effects reliabla QALYf t o bu ,e eus s still requires scientific researc wels h a mor s a l e detailed statistical information concerning public accidents and diseases.

199 thermal efficiency of the power plant <%)

calorific value of coal (kWh/kg)

fatal acc./MIH.tons \0,79

disease mortallty/Mill.ton -+•0 1. s (pneumoconloeis)

non-fatal acc./MI!l.t V39.4

non-fatal dseasea/Mlll.t 14.0 {direct Impact)

tost working days per accident and \31J5 occ. disease

non-fatal dseasea/Mlll.t (long term Impact)

FIG. 2. Occupational risks of coal mining.

Ther e morar e e long-term, indirect risks stemming from environmental change 2 likCO e induced climate change. An accurate quantification of these impacts on human health is not t possiblt par ye f thino o t d s studyean .

2. HEALTH RISKS OF COAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

In Baden-Württemberg grose ,th s electricity productio publir nfo c suppln i 48.s h ywa 6 TW yeae th r 1988. From that TWh,4 49.(2 . 4)% were produced from nuclear energ 34.7d yan % (16.9 TWh) from hard coal. Other energy sources like natural gas, fuel oil, hydraulic energy

200 electrical energy production r rvw» J_ thermal efficiency energy of the power demand plant (%) _L amount of calorific value of coal (kWh/kg) 8.1 coal needed 0.33 Mil.VTWh

man-power output/man g , (Vmanyear_ )l_ 7! 495 manyear/TWh

fatal accidents {YOLi/1 O^manyear) 2ZB

fata) diseases 7.5 (YOU/I CrWnyaar)

non-fatal accident i ^ s (YREC/1tfmanyear) fr3^l

non-fatal diseases !„_ (YREC/1 tfmanvearl80-7

Years with Reduction Year Liff sO e Lost in Earning Capacity 15 YOLL/TWh 66

FIG. 3. Occupational risks of coal mining.

and refuse incineratio secondarf o e nar y importance Germas A . n utilitie obligee w sar la y db ("Jahrhundertvertrag") to use a certain amount of domestic coal, 96 % of the coal used in Baden Württemberg power plant s producei s undergrounn di d Saarlane mineth f o sd dan Ruhrgebiet coal fields. The effects of imported coal are neglected in the further calculations.

To quantify the health risks of coal energy technology the complete fuel system including the different process steps mining, cleaning, transport, combustio wastd nan e dispositioo t s nha examinede b . Additional risks resulting from power plant construction, material suppld yan power plant dismantling have to be added (fig. 1). [Kallenbach/Thone, 1988];[Ferguson, 1981];[Morris, 1983]. 201 2.1 COALMINING

Occupational Risks (fig.2)

In producing risk estimates based on statistics, care must be taken in deciding how far back data shoul considerede db f dat I .coa n ao l mining accident usee r morsar o d n whicete e har years old they will probably not be representative of modern conditions with improved safety standards. However lesf i , s tha lase nth t five year f dat susedo e ashorar e th , t time spay nma allow results to be strongly influenced by short term fluctuations created by major incidents. As five years are thought to be the maximum time-span in which figures still remain representative of modern conditions, the input data used in this chapter are average values taken from accident statistics of the years 1984 - 1988. e figurefatan Th no l f fatad o accidents an e takel b n n ca sfro m statistic BergbauG (B s ) withou problemsy tan , wherea case slong-terf th e o m impacts, especially fatal diseases, which are mostly caused by coal-workers-pneumoconiosis, is a rather difficult one. Pneumoconiosis which l fataaccountal f l o case abour % sfo f occupationa so 90 t l diseases i , a lung disease inhalatioe causeth y b d f dusno t particles small enoug reaco ht lune hth g alveoli. orden I obtaio rt risna k estimat coar efo l extractio risna k estimat pneumoconiosir efo s must be considered easn a t y. Thino tas s s pneumoconiosii ka s e resula long-terth f s o i ts m exposur dusto et thao s , t figures abou disease numbee casew th th t f ne s o f e o r reflect dust conditions several years ago. Generally, the more advanced cases of pneumoconiosis are, the further back in time the conditions they represent. The period of time between dust exposure and first compensation is about twenty years, and that between exposure and death about forty years. In the last thirty years a considerable decrease in pneumoconiosis mortality can be noticed. opinioe Inth f somno e authors,n casew one f fata so l pneumoconiosis will occur becausf eo higher safety standards (dust reduction medicad )an l provisions Germae th t .Bu n Coal-Mining Association still expects a certain number of pneumoconiosis fatalities caused by present dust exposure. e decreasTh n pneumoconiosii e s mortalit t onl no a consequency s i y f technicao e l improvements which have reduced the underground dust levels, but also of the decrease in the number of miners. To forecast the number of expected fatalities caused by today's underground conditions, the figures of pneumoconiosis fatalities since 1950 are referred to the coal-output 40 years ago. These figures are shown in figure 4, where the x-axis indicates the yea f deathro expectee Th . d fatalitie yeae th r n i 203s 0 cause curreny db t conditione sar estimated by using an exponential regression of the data after 1960. The high values between yeare th s 198 198d 4 causevere an e coa w 8ar th y lo l y doutpub firse th t n yeari t s aftee th r second worltaket no dne warintar d o ,an accoun regressioe th n i t n analysis. Regarding non-fatal occupational diseases, direc long-terd tan m impacts separatedhave b o et . There are some occupational diseases - like meniscus damage - which directly cause an absence fro workine mth g placcertaia r efo n time. These direct impact summarizee ar s d together with the figure of non-fatal accidents as "Worker Days Lost". As mentioned above, e "workee figurth th f o e r days n averaglosta s i " e value calculated fro e totamth f o l occupational accidents and diseases, and the number of lost working hours (fig. 5). certaiA n numbefatan no l f diseaseo r smainl- y pneumoconiosi t noticeno e dar s- unti e th l worker is retired. The methodology used to estimate the expected number of these long-term diseases is the same as explained above to estimate pneumoconiosis mortality.

202 §o> ro

o •*»•

o 8

•2 10 -

o 'c o ü lo 0) o.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

FIG. 4. Health risks of coal energy technology.

- 10

.i 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

FIG. Healt5 . h risk f coaso l energy technology.

203 As an example, figure 3 shows the health risks of coal mining using the new indicators 11 Year f Lifso e Lost d "Year"an s wit hReductioa Earninn ni g Capacity".

Public Risks

publie Th c risk coaf so l minintaket no ne gintar o account. Althoug pollutior hai solid nan d waste arising from coal mining might caus contributioea totae th lo nt risk , their impacte sar assumed to be negligible in a first approximation.

2.2 TRANSPORT

In contras renewableo t t nuclear-energd an - y systems volume th , transportee b f fue eo o t l d s rathei r extensive using fossil energy sources. Consequently, coal transport contributea s high degree to the risks of the coal energy process. Coa s transportei l raily b d , wate r roado r . Slurrrisw klo ytranspor w pipelinene a e t ar s technology, not yet used in Germany.

Occupational Risks (fig.6)

In Germany abou e thir f on coato d s movei l y railb d . Because railroad transportation statistics for accidental deaths and injuries do not distinguish between the several types of freight carried, it is not possible to determine the effects of transporting coal by rail [Stat.Bundesamt, 1989];[BV, 1989]. The simplest way to estimate this value is to assign a proportionate railroal sharal f eo d death coao st l transport Regardin e occupationagth l risks this apportionmen e tota e basith th tlf o sshouln o e b d weight of the material transported, because the majority of accidents are expected to occur during loading, unloading and shunting. same Th e consideratio valis ni coar dfo l transpor ship totay e share b t th Th .lf eo risk s caused by coal transport is also calculated on the basis of the total weight of the material transported.

Public Risks (fig. 7)

Public risks attributable to coal transport by boat and by slurry-pipeline are negligible. Only remainino tw e th g branche f roads o rail-transpor d -an t considerede havb o et . Risk f raiso l transport involving persons other tha railwae nth y stafmainle ar f y causey db railway-crossing accidents. The number of accidents is not a function of the total weight of materiae th l transported train-kilometere th f o t bu , s travelled. Therefore rise share th kth , f eo cause coay db l estimatee transporb train-kilometere basie o th t th f s so n do ha t s travelled. Because these data are not yet available, the figure of ton-kilometers travelled is used in this study to give an idea of the method.

Unfortunately t possiblno s i t specifo i e,t degree yth f disabiliteo persoa f yo n affectea y b d non fatal accident. Statistics only distinguish between sligh severd an t e accidents, whics hi a vague and not very helpful classification. methoe Th f calculatingdo transport risk independens si freighe th wild f an o tlt appear again in some other process steps of the coal energy system.

204 thermal efficiency of 7 tti3 e I power ) plan(% t '——

calorific value of coal (kWh/kg)

means of transport

trarrap.distance (kmI ) I—*~

tranep.unlt

fatal accidents/ ail.HGVkm«)

non-fatal aocloenta/j Bill. HGVknO

WDL/acc.

fatal acc./MIH.ton \ao91

WDiyMIH.ton

. Occupationa6 FIG. l risk f coaso l transport.

2.3 POWER-PLANT OPERATION

Occupational Risks (fig. 8)

Specific data concerning occupational accident coaa n si l fired power-plan t availablno e ar t e in German statistics givmagnitudo e .ideT th n e a f ao occupationaf eo l ris kfirsa t estimation numbee basie th th f carries f o employeen i o ro t publie dou th n i sc electricity supplf yo Baden Württemberg.

205 thermal efficiency powee erth f r ) plan(% t

calorific value of coal (kWh/kg)

means of transport (%)

transp.o1stanoe(km)

transp.unlt {1}

fatal acc./Bill.km

acc.lnjur1ee/Blll.km

FIG. 7. Public risks of coal transport.

On the assumption that the assignment of all the employees either to the occupational group "electrical engineering" or "management / services" is a reasonable one concerning occupational accidents and diseases, the power plant operation risks can be estimated using accidene th t statistic Germae th f so n Workmen's Compensation Insurance. e employeeth f o l al s t worno s k A directle poweth n i yr plant e resultth , s include risks stemming from all public services of the utilities, for example the maintenance of distribution facilities. For this reason, they have to be looked upon as an upper limit of the power plant operation risks.

Because occupational statistic considet no o typse d rth powef eo r plant resulte th , meae sar n values and not specific to a coal fired power plant.

206 electrical energy production ITWi

productivity (manyear/TWh)

fatal accidents per 10*workers

nonfatal accidents worker* per10 s

occupational disease f workerIf r pe s

lost working days per accidend tan occ. disease

FIG . Occupationa8 . l risk f poweso r plant operation.

Public Risks (fig. 9)

Public risks of the power-plant operation are mainly caused by the emission of a wide range of air pollutants, including particulates, NOX, SO^ CO, organic matter, heavy metals and radionuclides. Although several investigations have been carried out to quantify health impacts of air pollution there remain great uncertainties. Most studie analysi e basee welth e s ar n th d o lf so documented air-pollution episode London n sGermai e th Yor w d kNe ,nan Ruhrgebiee th n i t

1950 1960sd san ,particulated usinan maie gS0 th ns sa indicators t accordinBu . w ne o gt 2

207 sulfur content of coal efficiency of flu« gas desuifuraifon

stack height mixing layer height atmospheric stability SOj-suttate DISPERSION MODEL conversion rate SO, diy deposition velocity Ï 1 health damage function —*• '\ ' ' \ - probability distribution ' ' \ HEALTH DAMAGE 1 1 - deterministic dose-response 1 function 1 MODEL ' \ threshold —"• . ^7"^^ 5 0 5 10 EXCESS DEATHS PER 10*PERSONS ,1cVm* linea- r doe orespons- e function without threshold

aggravation of chronic Increased heart and respiratory mortality diseases

0-3 d/TWh 0-10 dlsab./TWh

FIG. 9. Public risks of power plant operation.

emission standards, dust, SO2 and NOX levels were drastically reduced in the last years, so that health impacts cause thesy db e pollutant lesf o se importancesar ozonw No .assumes e i d to be the main causal agent for human health effects from air pollution in Germany.

To quantify health effects caused by air pollution without falling back on epidemiological studies dispersioa , n modehumaa d an ln health mode needee ar l describo dt physicae eth l correlation between the emissions of the power plant and any health effects occurring in the general public. The dispersion model gives the correlation between the power plant emissions and an ambient air concentration. Without considering any air chemistry processes during transportation, rather simple gaussian e use modelb r modellin fo dn ca s e transporth g t mechanisms. They require some basic meteorological data like wind speed, wind direction and stability classes. Only complex eulerian or lagrange models are able to calculate the formatio f secondarno y pollutants like ozone. These models need extensive data input sets and cannot be handled on a PC. As air chemistry processes are heavily time and site

208 dependent, it is not possible to work with annual mean values. A reasonable approach will calculatioe th e b f somno e typical weather episodes.

Health damage model assigo t y tr ns possible health calculatee effectth o t s d ambienr ai t concentration. Several health-damage functions have been develope e pastth ,n i deac h describing a dose response function between a certain pollutant and its specific impacts. None of them is commonly accepted because all are assumptions rather than statistically proved models, the remaining uncertainties being immense. There is considerable controversy over whether long-term exposur comparativelo et concentrationw lo y f pollutanto s causn ca s e chronic effects or whether there is some threshold below which no effects occur.

2.4 WASTE DEPOSITION

During the power-plant operation a considerable amount of solid waste is produced, mainly ash and waste material from flue-gas desulfurization. A certain part of these residual materials is currently sold to be used in the construction industry. The remainder is used as land r lanfilfo ld restitutio depositee b n o projectst disposaa s t dha a r o , l site.

The environmental effects, principally the contamination of water supplies around sites used for disposal t alse impactbu th o, f contaminateo s d constructiot nye materialt no e ar , quantified literature th n I . e the mostle yar y assume negligiblee b o dt efforn A . provo t t e this assumption shoul futuree made db th n ei .

Occupational I Public Risks (fig. Will)

certaiA n ris s causeki wasty db e transport, disposae eitheth reutilizine o t rth lo t sit r eo g industry, whic s normallhi y don heavy-goods-vehiclesy eb . Both occupationa publid an l c risks of road-transport are dependent on the kilometers travelled, which are calculated using the weight of the material transported, the transport distance, and the capacity of the truck. e numbeTh f fatanon-fatad o r an l l accident takee ar s n from German traffic statistics [BV, 1989]. Risks stemming from the transportation of material for the operation of the flue gas desulfurization plan includee ar tresulte th n f dthii so s chapter.

POWER-PLAN5 2. T CONSTRUCTION

Occupational Risks (fig.12)

e constructioTh n riskcoaa f o ls power statio e estimate ar nbasie th f investmen o sn do t figures and of manpower, using available accident statistics [Bock-Werthmann, 1986].

The investment costs of the power station (year of reference : 1987) [Brügel, 1987] are broken down into the main fields of construction, proportional to the direct effects on different industry branches. The manpower related to these investment portions is then calculated usin e figurth g e "turnove r personpe r " whic s publishei h e "Germath n i d n Statistical Yearbook" [Stat.Bundesamt, 1989]. Accident statistics of the German Workmen's Compensation Insurance (year referencf so e198: 6 -1989) [BAS, 1989 usee evaluat]ar o d t e the expected construction fatan riskno l s- fatad accidentan l occupationad an s l disease- s related to the man-power figures calculated above.

209 operation and waste material (MilLVTWh)

means of transport (%)

transp.dstancefkm) transp.untt (t)

fatal ace./ BIII./HQV km *)

non-fatal accj BHUHGVkm WDUacc.

fatal accyMill.ton

non fatal accVMIll.t

I WDL/acc|—« •.

0.0022 oTTWh «)HQV = Heavy Good Vehtete

FIG. 10. Occupational risks of waste disposal. totae constructioTh e l risth f ko n power-planphase th f eo t attributabl materiao et l suppld yan construction activities has been related to the total expected output during the lifetime of the power plant. The overall energy production can be expressed by using either the figures of technica lfull-loae lifetim th plan e d th an df t o e hour usiny r year b estimatee spe r gth o , d figure of full-load hours during the whole power plant lifetime. The latter one is appropriate cascoae a i nth f eo l fired power plant, becaus loae eth d leve whicn lo operate s i t hi d changes during the lifetime.

210 operatiod nan waste material

means of transpor) (% t

b-ansp.cSstance(km) transp.unl) (t t

fatal aco/BIII. km

ace. Injuries/Bill, ktr\S31

FIG. 11. Public risks of waste disposal.

211 K> i—* to power plant Investment costs (10 DM) 1160 10'DM I ——— I _____ ——— . , — — — . —— — —————— _,— ——— . — , steel mechanical electrical share of the Invest- I"""" engineering engineering _^ construction services ' 3 men1 ) t cost(% s engineering 38 -*• 15 — 14 e 359.« 10" DM 440.0 10" DM 174 10 DM 162.4 10« DM 11.9 10*DM 1 - i , i " i manpower product! vlty{10*DM) man power |fg4.4J-». man power 90.5 13.8 manpower 27 \-+- man power (turnove person}r rpe [ \ 2275.9 manyeai 2887.8 manyear 1094.1 manyeai 1427,1 manyear 859.3 manyear

fatal accidents workers pe10 r s

nonfatal accidents per 10s workers | *°

occupational disease pe f workerIf r s

lost working days per accident and occ. disease

output (MWe «5I )0

full-toad hours VSOOOÛ.

FIG. 12. Occupational risks of power plant construction. material requirements (thd.t) 93 steel 175.S 63

meanf so mau road road railway railway rrailwaa y transpor) (% t 100 " 75 t* psV B fäfV 47250 t 175500 t 1650 t 15750 t t 5550 t i i l i i distance distance distance distance distance dal transp.dl8tance(km) aool ZOO •k travelled -r- travelled travelled travelled Q travelled h tra\ tmr»p.untt (Q |I5J ÖL 000*3 ItsU aooosas \1S * O.OOOO22 Q O.O0315 Q a< Bill, km Blll.km Bill, km Bill, km BIILkm L> BBIILkt m

fatal acc./BIII m nzsk .

ace. Injuries/Bill, km «ST

output

fuN-load hours

FIG. 13. Public risks of power plant construction.

Public Risks (fig. 13)

The public risks of power-plant construction are mainly caused by the transportation of the required construction materials jThöne / Kallenbach, 1988]. They are calculated according to methoe th d explained above.

DISMANTLIN6 2. G

Occupational Risks (fig.14)

Becaus eo dat n ther ae availablar e e abou e dismantlinth t a coal-fire f o g d power-plant, decommissioning risk estimatee ar ssame th en i dmanne constructioe th s a r n risks were basie calculated th f investmen so n o y sa , o that t s figurei t manpowerd an s .

213 investment costs nec—•• power plant «DM0 (1 ) neoto'DM JL share th f eo decommissioning investment cost) s(% coats 59 108DM

productivity (10'DM) powen ma r (turnover per person) 13.8 509.0 manyear

fatal accidents workers per10 s

nonfatal accidents per 10s workers 112.6

occupational diseas, e. per 10s workers |Z7j

lost working days per accident and occ.dtsease

output (MWe)

full-bad hours

FIG. 14. Occupational risks of power plant dismantling.

e onlTh y industrial branc o considet h s "construction"i r e cost Th f .dismantlin o s e ar g totae th lf investmeno estimate% 5 e b o dt costs othee th , r e inputh same n ti th dat s e a aar case of power-plant construction.

Public Risks

givo T rougea h estimatio publie th f no c rissame kth e figures calculate power-plane th r dfo t construction are used. In both cases the public is mainly affected by material transportation. Assumin transpore g th sam e th ef o tamoun materialf o t same th , e mean transporf so e th d an t same transport case distanc th f plan eo n i ts ea construction resulte th , s give ideth n ea f ao magnitude of the public dismantling risks.

214 TABL . OCCUPATIONAE1 L RISK COAF SO L ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

worker days fata) accidents fatal diseases lost disabilities (direct impact) (medium-term impact) (direct impact) (medium -term impact) deaths/TWh deaths/TWh WDL/TWti dis./TWh

coal mining 0.263 0.33 2524 0.83 coal transport 0.022 - 127.6 - power plant operation (0.0023) - (17.1) - waste disposal 0.0022 - 1.56 - material supply "* - - - - powerplant construction 0.0044 - 71.3 -

powerplant decommissioning 0.0006 • 5.00 •

total 0.295 0.33 2746.6 0.83 riske f materiaTh s*>o l suppl includee y ar figuree powerplane th th dn i f so t construction

TABLE 2. PUBLIC RISKS OF COAL ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

fatal accidents non fatal non fatal diseased an s fatal diseases disabilities disabilities (direct impact) (medium-term impact) (direct impact) (medium-term impact) deaths/TWh deaths/TWh disab/TWh disab /TWh

coal mining - - - - coal transport 0.0086 - 0.028 -

power plant operation ?-? ?? ?? ?7

waste disposal 0.0065 - 0.33 -

material supply ^ - - - -

powerplant construction 0.00016 - 0.008 -

powerplant decommissioning 0.00016 • 0.008 -

total

The risk f materiaso l suppl includee y ar figure e powerplane th th d n f i so t construction

3. CONCLUSION

The health-effects estimated in this study are those which can reasonably be attributed to the direct operatio coae th lf nfueo l system.

Underground coal mining is the main source of the occupational impacts, these values are calculated wit certaiha n reliability (tabl. e1)

Public health risks are much more uncertain. Air pollution poses the largest potential risk.

215 e incrementaTh l ris probabls ki smalo yto detectable expecb o t l reasonablo y t t an i t n ei e epidemiological study. However r pollutioai , a low-leve s ni l risk distributed ove a largr e population. On an individual risk basis, the effects might be sufficiently low, but the cumulative effec millionn o t f peoplso e expose risw klo levelo dt sufficiens si justifo t t y strict control measures. givo T morea e reliable quantificatio humaf no n health effects cause pollutionr ai . dby , rather complex air-transport and air-chemistry models have to be applied together with human health models. But at present, available dose-response relationships are very specific to certain pollutants or diseases and are very controversial.

(BAS) Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Sozialordnung (Editor) Arbeitssicherheit '86 l '89 Referat Öffentlichkeitsarbeit, Postfach Bon3 5 , n

BG Bergbau Jahresbericht Bergbau-Berufsgenossenschaft 1989 Postfach 100423, 4630 Bochum

Bock-Wertnmann,W Construction Risks Nuclearof Power-Plants Cost-Effectivenessin Use for Considerations GSF-Bericht 28/86

Briigel,P. Perspektiven der Energieversorgung Materiealienban : NutzundV g fossiler Energieträger Stuttgart, 1987

(BV) Bundesministe Verkehr fü r r Verkehr in Zahlen 1989 Referat A25, Postfach 200100, 53 Bonn 2

Ferguson,R.A.D. Comparative Risks of Electricity Generating Fuel Systems Stevenage (UK), Peter Peregrinus Ltd, 1981

Fischer,H. al t e . Health Environmentaland Effects Document Upton,N.Y.,USA Brookhaven National Laboratory, 1981 (BNL 51491)

Kallenbach,U.; Thone.E. Gesundheitsrisiken Stromerzeugungder TÜV Rheinland GmbH, Köln, 1988

Morris,S.C. Health Risks Coalof Energy Technology In: Curtis,C.T.; Etnier,E.L. (Editor): Health Risks of Energy Technologies AAAS Selected Symposiu , 198m82 3

216 Schaaf,E.; Hennig,J. et.al. Schadensindex zum Vergleich beruflich bedingter Risiken Verla RheinlandV gTÜ , März 1986

Statistisches Bundesamt Statistisches Jahrbuch Bundesrepublik die 1989 für Deutschland Stuttgart und Mainz, Verlag W.Kohlhammer GmbH, 1989

Next page(s7 ) lef21 t blank LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

B. WAHLSTRÖM International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg

Abstract

papee Th r present structure sth modea databasa f d eo an l e devote life-cycle th o dt e analysis of industrial products for the assessment of environmental impacts. The data cove larga r e variet industriaf yo l sectors whole th ; e life-cycl producte e b th o f t eo s sha considered when the environmental impacts are calculated. The author considers that the data format could be standardized in view of exchanging data between different studieenlargo t d qualit e sstudiesan e e th th f yo .

Introduction environmentae Th l impact productf so productiod san n processe receivine sar g increasing societal attention. Different methodologies have been developed intendea r fo d compariso competinf no g products with regar theio dt r demand raw-materialr sfo d san energy as well as their emissions to the environmental compartments of air, water and soile experiencTh . e fro methodologiee mth s point neeo t sr wel dfo l defined system boundaries, accurate datagreed aan d interpretatio resultse th f no . Regardlese th f o s difficultie importans i t si asseso tt impacte sth completa f so e system, because erroneously targeted actions can easily be counter-productive. BAS developes Aha dmethodologa y consistin modea databasa f gd o an l producr efo t life-cycle analysis projece initiall.Th s twa y considering beverage packaging lates wa r t ,bu redirecte o emphasizt d e methodological questions. Dat r morfo a e than 1000 unit processes is currently stored in the database. The data covers the following industrial sectors: pul paperd pan , irosteeld nan , aluminum, petrochemicals, inorganic chemicals, plastics, glass, mining, energy conversion, transportation and waste-management.

The methodology Life-cycle analysis implies that products, activities, or even entire economic sectors are analyzed fro end-usmn a e perspective cumulative .Th e impact produce th f so activitr to y e quantifiear d fro poine mth t onwards where material energied an s r thifo ss product/activity are extracted from the earth, up to either a certain point in the product's life- cycle, or in the most complete case, to the final disposal of the remaining wastes back into the earth. life-cyclA e analysi carrie s analyzinsi y b t d ou produc e gth activityr tproduction(o l al r )fo , r consumptiono e us finad an , l disposal steps tha undergoest i t . Eac thesf ho e stepe sar quantified backwards from the desired output by considering inputs into, and outputs from all intermediate production processes. The cumulative amounts of all materials, energies and pollutants in each step of the life-cycle can then be calculated.

219 The methodology developed at HASA consists of a database combined with a materials and energy flow model which allows the simulation of process chains of any given economic activity. So-called unit processes constitut e basith e c elemente th f o s methodology. These unit processes are modeled as a set of coefficients, or rates, describin relationshie gth p betwee flowe nth s going into comind , eacof an , ht unigou t process. Entire process chains are modeled as an interconnected system of these unit processes. Data are stored at the unit process level in the database and organized according to inputs into, and outputs from, each unit process.

The unit processes can be defined on a high level of aggregation or rather disaggregated, which gives a flexible approach for describing the economic activities modeled. Therefore, e complexitth d applicatioyan varn nca y widely from highly aggregated systems that represent, for example, national economies, to very detailed studies of comparisons of individual factories.

The database The software environment used is DBase IV, whose advantage is wide-spread availability and relatively easy use. The database has been implemented with a hierarchical structure, which allow easn sa y separation between bas furthey ean datd r aan elaboration e th f so base dat eanalysis e stag y madth an n e i t ea . Unit processe e basith ce elementar s provided an s s thue maith s n entries inte oth database. These unit processes can be defined rather flexibly, examples in the current database range from aggregated processes such as "oil refining", which is actually com- prised of a multitude of individual process steps, to "pickling", which is one process step in the production of cold rolled steel. Each unit process belongs to a unique sector which reflects eithe economin ra c secto logically-linkea r o r d grou processesf po . date stores Th ai d with referenc unie th t o processet e organizes i d san inputs da d san outputs from each process. These inputs and outputs constitute flows which are uniquely identified through three attributes, unit process name, product name calculatiod an , n type calculatioe Th . n type define producrola e f sth e o process a n i t , i.e. whethea s i t ri reference output non-referenca , e output referenca , e input non-referenca r o , e input.

database dependenf conceivee o Th b t n se eca a s dta tables whic relatee har d through the unit processes. The tables, each of a different type are stored in files which are related through the interconnections of the unit processes. The first set of tables is process-dependent and include substitution tables and allocation tables. The next set of files is product-dependent and include property tables, mixture tables, distribution tables. f tableo e finat s producti Th sse l processd an - - (ie. flow-) dependen d includan t e input/output tables and transportation tables. methodologe th f o e us e y Th

methodologe Th intendes yi supporo dt t systems analysi environmentae th f so l impacts of product productiod san n processes. This give possibilite sth comparo yt e different phases, of the production cycle, eg. basic materials, processing, fabrication, packaging and shipping. It is also possible to compare competing products with respect to their direct indirecd an t environmental impact comparo t r s o alternativ o etw e production processes for the same product.

220 assessmene Th performee b leven y ca taggregationf an o l t da , fro msingla e factora o yt regiona nationar o l l average useresulte e targetinr b .Th dn fo sca g improvemente th f so production processes, for assessing the impact of new regulation or to support international negotiations on environmental protection. Results from exemplary calculations performe IIASt da A indicates clearl importance yth e of considering the whole life-cycle of a product. At the same time it is necessary to be able to build "transparency" both into the models and the data used. Possible disagree- ments in the results have to be traceable back to the specific assumptions made. Different scenarios of environmental policies can be calculated by creating alternative unisete datf th sto r processesafo increasen .A d suppor recyclinf o tinstancr fo n ge ca eb assume increaso dt recovere eth wastf yo e materia t eaca l h production step. Different standards for emissions to air and water can in the same be assumed to influence the emission coefficient thu d overale an ssth l impacts.

Conclusions Experience with the methodology has clearly shown the importance of considering the whole life-cycl producte th f eo s whe environmentae nth l impact calculatede sar . Sample results indicat instancr efo e tha transportatioe tth n sector often gives morf eo tha% n50 the environmental impacts. Similarly the front end of the production often also is very important The collection and validation of the data for the unit processes is the most time consuming task in any life-cycle analysis. The sources for such data include similar studies othen o r products, statistics from nationa internationad lan l organizations, interviewt sa different production facilities, dat e etcaTh . availabl opee th nen i literatur usefues i l when underlying assumptions have been documented well enough. Ther neea agreeinr s ei dfo methodologiee th n go carryinr sfo t life-cyclgou e analysesf .I the data formats and the assumptions could be standardized it would be relatively easy exchango t e data between different studie therebd san enlargo yt possibilitiee eth d san to improve the quality of the studies.

Next page(s) left blank 1 22 ENVIRONMENTAL MANUAL FOR POWER DEVELOPMENT

G. SCHÖRNER, R. SCHÖNSTEIN Forschungsinstitut für Energie und Umweltplanung, Vienna, Austria

Abstract

The overall objective and technical details of an environmental manual for power development under preparation of the World Bank are introduced. The proposed Manual is intended for use by project planners, consultants, and policy decision makers in developing countries.

1. Background

As You know very often the power sector is a major contributor to environmental degradatio pollutiond nan . Thi s sometimei s s also tru n countriei e r projecto s s where institutional weaknesses, shortage of trained staff, management failures and plain lack of knowledg e majoar e r factors that preven e systematith t c assessment and effective treatment of environmental consequences. There is a paramount need for a common and mutually agreed approach for a systematic appraisal of environmental consequences of power development. To be useful and effective such an approach shoul e updateb d d regularl d revisean y s necessarya d .

2. Overall objective e proposeTh d Environmental Manua Power fo l r Developmen s inteni t - ded to provide an easy-to-use guide for assessing the environmental consequence f poweo s r system component o makt d e an ssuc h assessment an integral part of system planning, project appraisal and monitoring. In particular, the Manual will: * provide decision makers with input/output data relevant to the analysis of environmental consequences of power system components ; * Assist in identifying environmentally sensitive issues; * trace the scope for mitigatory measures and indicate the costs or trade-offs they incur; and * signal the need for additional or specific expertise in quanti- fying and/or evaluating both the invironmental impacts of power system components and the potential for ameliorating strategies. The Manual is not intended to set standards or validate ultimate environmental norms or judgements. Rather, its prime task is to

223 disclose the range of environmental impacts involved in the choice among different power supply options s intendei t I . o t d n analyticaserva s a e d traininan l g tool that reveal date th s a needed to assess environmental consequences of power system com- ponente basith f economico n so s , politica r otheo l r criteria considered relevant.

3. Target groups The proposed Manual is intended for use by project planners, consultants agencd ai , y officer d polican s y decision makern i s developing country institutions, donor agencie d multilateraan s l institutions.

wor Scope . 4 th kf eo e e covereareae Manuab Th th o t sy b ld will includ e followinth e g subsectors: coad * oilan l s therma,ga l power generation, wit viea h w towards atmospheric pollution (S02, N02, CO, C02 unburnt hydrocarbons, particulates and trace metals etc.), thermal and water pollution and ash disposal problems; * fossil fuel extractio d handlingan n , wit viea h w towards sedi- ment and dust pollution as well as effluent/waste disposal; * hydropower, with impact areas subdivided into dam/watershed upstream effects (e.g. inundatio f riveo n r basins, etc., loss f habitao r flora/faunafo t , water quality, health parameters, socia d economian l c disruptions through resettlement, etc.), and downstream effects (like reduced transport of silt and organic material, intrusio f salno t e rivewateth n ri r mouth, etc; ) . * geothermal, with emphasis on effluent disposal; * diesel power, considering noise pollutionr ,ai wastd ,an l eoi disposal ; * municipal waste and biomass power generation systems; * renewable energy sources; * power transmissio distributiond an n . e ManuaTh l wilt coveno l r nuclear power projects. r eacFo h sub-sector e Manuath , l should permi e examinatioth t f o n environmentally crucial cause-and-effect relationships and their responsiveness to parameter changes. The analysis should cover e wholth e project cycle relevan o environmentat l considerations, inluding decision variables and parameters. e functionTh e Manuath s l shoul e abl b do perfor t e m include: * data checkin d identificatioan g f informatioo n n gaps;

224 * calculatio d identificatioan n f informatioo n n gaps; * calculation/measuremen f environmentao t l effects (e.g. emissions, heat rates, land requirements); a summar * f standardo y s currently applied; * assessmen e relativth f o t e severit d potentiaan y l magnitudf o e environmental impacts; * outlining of mitigatory strategies; * cost reporting; * sensitivity analysis.

Consideration wile developmene giveth b l o t n f modulao t r software package n (lap-topso suitable us r ) fo emicrocomputers .

5. Design and execution of the project The project will proceed in phases, in the moment we are working in phase one.

Scope of Work for Phase 1^ Phas e includeeon e followinth s g steps: The project people work under the guidance of the Project coordinator to * survey existing informations such as the literature, data bases computed ,an r programmes, * critically review information relevant to the objective of the Manual, select appropriate material for the preparation of the Manual, * prepar executivn a e e summar provido t y e recommendatione th r fo s desig d productioan n e Manualth f o n. Also recommendationr fo s potential computerization of the Manual will be provided.

6. The project team The project is a collaborative venture involving multilateral and bilateral aid agencies coordinated by the World Bank. s projecA t coordinator World Bank too. SchönsteiMr k . Mr d an n Schorner under contract, who are the institute managers of Austrian Environmental Expert Group, which works since 15 years e fiel th f environmenta o dn i l impact assessment, also particularly for power plant projects. The work is supported by four governmental agencies which are participating very active in the project.

225 GTZ Agency, Germany Overseas Development (UK PDA) USAID (US Agency International Development) Swiss Federal Offic Foreigr efo n Economic Affairs, Development Policy Service These agencies too a numbek f internationao r l consultants under contract to cover different parts of the study. A number of scientific meetings have been held during the preparation time. expectes Ii t d tha drafe th t t report e fouth rf so agencie s will e finisheb n Novembei d r this year. Afterward a finas l report including the four partial reports will be prepared by the coor- dinators. Phase two including the topics - mentioned in the Scope of Work - will start by February 1991. It will also contai e recommendationth n d findingan s f phasso e one.

7. Outlook Thi sdata Manuat a no bases i lt shoul I . d evaluate projectn i s futur a mixe y b ed syste f environmentalo m , technological, economical experts supported by some different tools like a computer program, data base, handbook etc. After finishing the Manual we all expect and hope to give the users in the World an easy-to-use tool supported by lap-top computers which helps the countries, the national and international agencies, the consultants and the financing institutions to evaluat l typ f al futureo e e power plant project a bette r fo sr world worth living on.

226 LIS PARTICIPANTF TO S

Technical Committee Meeting on "Development of a Data Base Comparative foth r e Healtd han Environmental Impact Variouf so s Energy Systems"

Vienna, Austria, 15-19 October, 1990

AUSTRIA . PetE z Zentralanstal Meteorologir fü t e und Geodynamic Hohe Warte 38

E. Waginger Institut für Botanik . Lebensmittelkundu e Vet. mediz. Universität Wien Linke Bahngasse 11 A-1030 Wien

WagingeH. r Bundeswirtschaftskammer Wiedner Hauptstrass4 e6 A-1040 Vienna

K. Kienzl Federal Environmental Agency Umweltbundesamt Radetzky Strasse2 A-1030 Vienna

G.E. Stundner Atominstitut Schuettelstrasse 115 A-1020 Vienna

BELGIUM J. Kretzschmar Studiccentrum voor Kernenergie Boeretan0 g20 240l 0Mo

CANADA S. Sridhar Atomic Energ f Canadyo a Ltd. Research Company Slate4 34 r Street Ottawa4 OS , OntA K1 . EGYPT MA. Gaafar Atomic Energy Authority AEA Nuclear Regulatory and Safety Centre, NRSC, Nasr City 11762 P.O.Box 7551 Cairo

FRANCE . SchneideTh r Centre d'Etude sur l'évaluation de la protection dans le domaine nucléaire 8 4 B.P. no . 92263 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex

227 GERMANY K.R. Bräutigam Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruh eAbteilun- r gfü Angewandte Systemanalyse Postfach 75 Karlsruhe

M. Grosse Institu Energetir fü t k GmbH Torgauerstrass4 e11 7024 Leipzig

S. Hähnel Institu r Strahlenschutzmedizifü t n Bundesministeriu r Jugendmfü , Familie, Frauen und Gesundheit Waldowalle7 e11 Berlin 1157

GREECE J. Kollas N.C.S.R "Democritos" Institut Nucleaeof r Technolog yRadiatio- n Protection P.O. Box 60228 GR-15310 Aghia Paraskevi Attikis

. PapazogloI . A u N.C.S.R "Democritos" Institute of Nuclear Technology - Radiation Protection 6022x P.OBo .8 GR-15310 Aghia Paraskevi Attikis

HUNGARY L.Vöröss Institute for Electric Power Research (VEIKI) Zrinyi u. l 1051 BudapesV t

ISRAEL . TamarA i Ministry of Energy Infrastructurd an e P.O.Box 17006 Tel Aviv 61171

ITALY . MoricA i ENEA-Directoratr efo Nuclear Safety & Health Protection 48, via Brancati 00144 Roma

JAPAN . TaketoshT i Institute of Applied Energy Shinbashi SY-Bldg. 1-14-2 Nishishinbashi Minato-ku Tokyo

NETHERLANDS . LakP o Netherlands Energy Research Found P.O.Box 1 175PetteG Z 5 n

228 PHILIPPINES A.D.D. Supetran Environmental Management Bureau 6th Fir, Phil Heart Center Bldg. Diliman, Quezon City, Manila

SWITZERLAND A. F. Fritzsche Swiss Nuclear Safety Committee Chesa Crast'ota CH-7504 Pontresina

UNITED KINGDOM R.S. Rodliffe Nuclear Electric pic Health and Safety Deptm. Bedminster Down Bridgwater Road N A 8 Bristo3 1 S B l

RUSSIAN FEDERATIO . EremenkV N o SCSSINP Science-and Engineering Centre Tanganskaya4 3 Str. Mosco7 14 9 w10

A.A. Prosvirnov All-Union Research Institute Nucleae foth r r Power Plant Operations Ferganskaya5 2 Str. 109 507 Moscow

J. A. Schagin Institute of Biophysics 123182 Zivopyshay ut. 46 Moscow

YUGOSLAVIA S. Trputec Electric Power Institute Institu Electroprivreda z t u Proleterskih Brigad7 a3 Zagreb

229 INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

OECD/IEA . HockinF . J g OECD Andre 2ru , e Pascal Paris Cedex 16 75775 France

UNEP G. A. Mackenzie UNEP Collaboration Center on Energy and Environment Riso National Laboratory DK-4000 Rosküde Denmark

WHO L. D. Hamilton Brookhaven National Laboratory Upton 1197Y N , 3 U.SA.

WORLD BANK R. Schönstein Forschungsinstitut für Energid eun Umweltplanung Austrian Environmental Expert Group Gymnasiumstrasse 42/5

. SchörneG r Forschungsinstitut für Energie und Umweltplanung Austrian Environmental Expert Group Gymnasiumstrasse 42/5

IAEA S. Haddad Scientific Secretary F. Niehaus A. Gheorghe R. Dones

230 LIS PARTICIPANTF TO S

Technical Committee Meeting on "The Compilation of Environmenta Healtd an l h Risk Data Entire foth r e Fuel Cycl Variouf eo s Energy Sources".

Vienna, Austria, 3 - 7 June, 1991

CHINA Yang Ying China Institute for Radiation Protection 0 12 x P.OBo . Beijing 030006

FRANCE F. Anguenot CEA-IPSN/DPHD/SEGR/ Fontenay-aux-Rosee d N CE s BP. 6 92265 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex

J. Kalimbadjian COGEMA Etablissement de la Hague 8 B.P50 . 50105 Cherbourg Cedex

. RostroW n CEPN B.P. 48 92263 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex

Th. Schneider CEPN B.P. 48 92263 Fontenay-aux-Roses Cedex

GERMANY KrewitW. t Institut fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Hessbruehelstra 9 4 . Postfac 1140 h8 0 D-7000 Stuttgart 80

GREECE J. Kollas Institute of Nuclear Technology-NCSR Radiation Protection (NRCPS) Demokritos Aghi0 1 3 a 15 Paraskevi Attiki

HUNGARY L. Vöröss Institute for Electric Power Research (VEIKI) 1051 Budapest Zrinyi-str. l

ISRAEL A. Tamari Ministr Energf yo y and Infrastructure 26 Levanon Street Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 231 ITALY A. Morici ENEA-DISP (Directorate for Nuclear Safety and Health Protection) Brancata vi , 48 i 00144 Roma

SWITZERLAND P. Hofstetter ZuricH ET h Institut für Energie Technik ZentrumH ET L M , CH-8092 Zürich

UNITED KINGDOM G. BetteridgE . e AEA Technology 11, Charles II Street London SW 1Y 4QP

YUGOSLAVIA . KisiZ c Electric Power Institute Institut za Elektroprivredu Zagreb 41000, Prolet Brigad7 a3

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

IEA/OECD . GirouarP d OECD Paris , Boulevar38 d Suchet 75016 Paris

IIASA Wahlströ. B m IIASA Laxenburg Austria

UNIDO S. Maltezou UNIDO Vienna

STOCKHOLM . RaskiP n Stockholm Environmental ENVIRONMENT Institute INSTITUTE Tellus Institute , Broa9 d Street Boston 0211A M , 0 USA

IAEA . HaddaS d Scientific Secretariat . GheorghA e R. Dones F. Niehaus G. Linsley

CO CM g O

232