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Security Transitions Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Cl Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin Wright
Security Transitions Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Cl Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin Wright To cite this version: Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Cl Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin Wright. Security Transitions. 2020. halshs-02518234 HAL Id: halshs-02518234 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02518234 Preprint submitted on 25 Mar 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. WORKING PAPER N° 2020 – 13 Security Transitions Thiemo Fetzer Pedro CL Souza Oliver Vanden Eynde Austin L. Wright JEL Codes: D72, D74, L23 Keywords: Counterinsurgency, Civil Conflict, Public Goods Provision Security Transitions∗ Thiemo Fetzery Pedro CL Souzaz Oliver Vanden Eyndex Austin L. Wright{ March 23, 2020 Abstract How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent large- scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that com- bines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. -
Trump-Taliban Talks Like Those with North Korea – a Photo Op on the Deck of the Titanic
Trump-Taliban Talks Like Those with North Korea – A Photo Op on the Deck of the Titanic By Prof. Juan Cole Region: Asia, USA Global Research, September 10, 2019 Theme: Intelligence Informed Comment 9 September 2019 In-depth Report: AFGHANISTAN The Afghanistan government has been miffed and apprehensive for some time that the Trump administration has been talking to the Taliban in Qatar without any representation from Kabul. Government officials were therefore happy about Trump’s abrupt cancellation of what he depicted as a summit with the Taliban at Camp David (to which Afghanistan president Ashraf Ghani was not invited). Trump cancelled on the grounds that the Taliban killed a US serviceman on the eve of the talks. According to Hasht-i Subh, Abdullah Abdullah, the chief executive of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, remarked, “We were looking at the possibility of a joint meeting in Camp David as an opportunity, but unfortunately the peace efforts being conducted against the will and the aspirations of the Afghan people were sabotaged by increased violence and terror attacks by the Taliban and other elements.” He actually said the talks were conducted against the will of the Afghan people. There is no indication Trump was going to invite the Kabul government alongside the Taliban. According to BBC Monitoring President Ghani’s office issued a statement saying, that they “consider the Taliban’s current war and violence against Afghans as the main obstacle to the ongoing peace process” and that “real peace would come only when the Taliban stop killing Afghan people, accept a ceasefire and start face-to-face talks with the Afghan government”. -
Security Transitions∗
Security Transitions∗ Thiemo Fetzery Pedro CL Souzaz Oliver Vanden Eyndex Austin L. Wright{ March 18, 2020 Abstract How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent large- scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that com- bines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. We find that the initial security transfer to Afghan forces is marked by a significant, sharp and timely decline in insurgent violence. This effect reverses with the ac- tual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions. Keywords:Counterinsurgency,Civil Conflict,Public Goods Provision JEL Classification: D72, D74, L23 ∗We thank Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda, Anthony Fowler, Hannes Mueller, Christo- pher Price, Jacob Shapiro, and audiences at the Chicago Harris Political Economy, ESOC Annual Con- ference, University of Warwick, IAE Barcelona Workshop on Prediction for Prevention, HiCN confer- ence, CREST Political Economy Workshop, and Labex OSE Aussois Days. Manh Duc Nguyen provided excellent research assistance. Support from the Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Con- flicts is gratefully acknowledged. -
National Area-Based Development Programme
Empowered lives. Resilient nations. NATIONAL AREA-BASED DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME 2014 Second Quarterly PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME DONORS PROJECT INFORMATION Project ID: 00057359 (NIM) Duration: Phase III (July 2009 – June 2015) ANDS Component: Social and Economic Development Contributing to NPP One and Four Strategic Plan Component: Promoting inclusive growth, gender equality and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) CPAP Component: Increased opportunities for income generation through promotion of diversified livelihoods, private sector development, and public private partnerships Total Phase III Budget: US $294,666,069 AWP Budget 2014: US $ 52,608,993 Un-Funded amount 2014: US $ 1,820,886 Implementing Partner Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD) Responsible Party: MRRD and UNDP Project Manager: Abdul Rahim Daud Rahimi Chief Technical Advisor: Vacant Responsible Assistant Country Director: Shoaib Timory Cover Photo: Kabul province, Photo Credit: | NABDP ACRONYMS ADDPs Annual District Development Plans AIRD Afghanistan Institute for Rural Development APRP Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Programme ASGP Afghanistan Sub-National Governance Programme DCC District Coordination Councils DDA District Development Assembly DDP District Development Plan DIC District Information Center ERDA Energy for Rural Development of Afghanistan GEP Gender Empowerment Project IALP Integrated Alternative Livelihood Programme IDLG Independent Directorate of Local Governance KW Kilo Watt LIDD Local Institutional Development Department MHP Micro Hydro Power MoF Ministry of Finance MoRR Ministry of Refuge and Repatriation MRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NABDP National Area Based Development Programme PEAC Provincial Establishment and Assessment Committees RTD Rural Technology Directory RTP Rural Technology Park PMT Provincial Monitoring Teams UNDP United Nations Development Programme SPVHS Solar Photovoltaic Voltage Home System SDU Sustainable Development Unit TABLE OF CONTENTS I. -
Annual Report 2019
Annual Report 2019 Contents Abbreviations ______________________________________________________________________________ 3 Foreword _________________________________________________________________________________ 4 I. Summary Reporting Period __________________________________________________________________ 5 II. Pakistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan Region: Overview 2019 ___________________________________________ 8 III. Pakistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan Region: Project Implementation in 2019 _____________________________ 9 IV. West African Region: Overview 2019 ________________________________________________________ 14 V. West African Region: Project Implementation in 2019 ___________________________________________ 15 VI. Selection of Projects Completed in 2019 _____________________________________________________ 17 Contact __________________________________________________________________________________ 28 Source of title photo: Project monitoring visit, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. © GFC 2 Abbreviations AKF Aga Khan Foundation EU European Union EUR Euro GFC Georg Fiebig Consultants GFFO German Federal Foreign Office I.C.I. Initiatives Conseil International KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau NCE No Cost Extension PAT Pakistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan Project Region PATRIP PATRIP Foundation SCORED Supporting Cooperation and Opportunities for Regional Economic Development SRSP Sarhad Rural Support Programme UK United Kingdom WA West Africa Project Region WI Wish International 3 Foreword Dear Friends of PATRIP, As 2019 has passed, we continue -
Country of Origin Report Afghanistan
Country of Origin Report Afghanistan March 2019 Page 1 of 124 Country of Origin Report Afghanistan| March 2019 Publication details The Hague Text by: Department for Country of Origin Information Reports (CAB) Disclaimer: The Dutch version of this report is leading. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands cannot be held accountable for misinterpretations based on the English version of the report. Page 2 of 124 Country of Origin Report Afghanistan| March 2019 Table of contents Publication details ............................................................................................2 Table of contents .............................................................................................3 Introduction ....................................................................................................5 1 Country information .................................................................................... 7 1.1 Political developments ......................................................................................7 1.1.1 Government of National Unity ...........................................................................7 1.1.2 Elections ........................................................................................................8 1.1.3 Corruption in government ............................................................................... 16 1.2 High Peace Council (HPC) ............................................................................... 17 1.2.1 Peace talks with the Taliban ........................................................................... -
20 ISIL Terrorists Killed in Airstrike East of Afghanistan
2 Main News Page Nangarharis Face Unruly Traffic after 20 ISIL Terrorists Killed in Roads Closure JALALABAD - Residents say several roads have been closed Airstrike East of Afghanistan in the capital of eastern Nan- JALALABAD - At least twenty garhar province for security rea- insurgents affiliated with the ISIL sons, creating inconvenience for terrorist group were killed in an local residents and commuters. airstrike in Eastern Nangarhar Passengers on the Jalalabad- province of Afghanistan. Torkham highway and residents The Afghan Defense Ministry said of 11 districts of Nangarhar com- in a statement that the airstrike plain the closure of the airport was carried out during the past road has created problems for 24 hours, supporting the ongoing them. offensive to eliminate the threats The road was closed after a car posed by the terror group, Khaama suicide bombing targeted a se- press reported. curity post at the airport about a A statement said the insurgents month ago. were targeted in the vicinity of Another road leading to the Achin district, one of the main ar- governor’s house in Jalalabad eas in Nangarhar where the ISIL city has also been closed since loyalists are active in some of its a month following threats of at- parts.The anti-government armed tack. militant groups have not com- An elderly woman, who walked mented regarding the report so far. several kilometers on a hot Nangarhar is among the relatively summer day to reach Torkham calm ...(More on P4)...(17) border town, angrily criticized government officials, saying the ISIS Militants Suffer Casualties Bid to Kidnap Afghan government was only concerned Mattis Says US ‘may have Pulled our about itself. -
EU Envoy NATO Supports 4-Year Afghan Security
Eye on the News [email protected] Truthful, Factual and Unbiased Vol:XI Issue No:321 Price: Afs.20 www.afghanistantimes.af www.facebook.com/ afghanistantimeswww.twitter.com/ afghanistantimes SATURDAY . JULY 01. 2017 -Saratan 10, 1396 HS AT Monitoring Desk he United Kingdom’s Defense Secretary, T Michael Fallon has announced that Britain has taken a formal decision to deploy 100 more soldiers to Afghanistan in a bid to help, and train the Afghan on war, war is a fundamentally Support Mission beyond 2017. security forces. While talking to unpredictable phenomenon," Speaking at a press conference after KABUL: Former President Hamid media on his arrival to NATO Mattis told reporters after meeting Thursday’s defense ministers Karzai has opposed the info-icon defense ministers his counterparts from the 29- meeting in Brussels, he said: “Our deployment of more US soldiers meeting at Brussels, he said the nation alliance. "The bottom line military authorities have requested in Afghanistaninfo-icon and UK soldiers would be used to is that NATO has made a a few thousand more troops for warned the move may have enhance war skills and capabilities commitment to Afghanistan for the mission and today, I can negative consequences. Karzai of the Afghan soldiers and air force freedom from fear and terror, and confirm that we will increase our expressed the view during his pilots rather than any direct freedom from terror demands that presence in Afghanistan.” “We address on International Peace at combat role. He vowed the UK you can't let this be undone,” he have recently seen brutal attacks one of the Chinese university in would continue its military and added. -
Interaction Member Activity Report Afghanistan a Guide to Humanitarian and Development Efforts of Interaction Member Agencies in Afghanistan
InterAction Member Activity Report Afghanistan A Guide to Humanitarian and Development Efforts of InterAction Member Agencies in Afghanistan May 2002 Photo by Pieternella Pieterse, courtesy of Concern Worldwide US Produced by Yoko Satomi With the Disaster Response Unit of 1717 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Suite 701, Washington DC 20036 Phone (202) 667-8227 Fax (202) 667-8236 Website: http://www.interaction.org Table of Contents Map of Afghanistan 3 Background Summary 4 Report Summary 6 Organizations by Sector Activity 7 Glossary of Acronyms 9 InterAction Member Activity Report Action Against Hunger USA 11 Air Serv International 13 American Jewish World Service 14 American Refugee Committee 16 AmeriCares 17 America’s Development Foundation 18 Catholic Medical Mission Board 19 Catholic Relief Services 20 Childreach/Plan 21 Christian Children’s Fund 23 Church World Service 25 Concern Worldwide 28 Direct Relief International 30 Doctors Without Borders/ Médecins Sans Frontières 31 HALO Trust 33 International Aid 34 International Rescue Committee 35 Jesuit Refugee Service/USA 38 Lutheran World Relief 39 InterAction Member Activity Report for Afghanistan 1 May 2002 Mercy Corps 40 Northwest Medical Teams 44 Oxfam America 46 Refugees International 48 Relief International 49 Save the Children 52 United Methodist Committee on Relief 54 USA for UNHCR 55 U.S. Fund for UNICEF 57 World Concern 60 World Vision 61 InterAction Member Activity Report for Afghanistan 2 May 2002 Map of Afghanistan Map courtesy of Central Intelligence Agency / World Fact Book InterAction Member Activity Report for Afghanistan 3 May 2002 Background Summary After twenty years of war, including a decade of Soviet occupation and ensuing civil strife, Afghanistan is in shambles. -
Request for Proposal
Request for Proposal Danish Refugee Council House # 63&64, Lane # 1, Street # 3, PD # 3, Kart‐e‐Chahar Kabul, Afghanistan 20th June, 2017 To: All Interested parties Request for Proposal No: KBL RFP 003 Provision of Transportation and Rental Vehicle Services Dear Sir/Madam: Dear interested bidder(s), DRC and DDG requests you to submit price bid(s) Provision of transportation and rental vehicle services, descripted on the attached DRC and DDG Bid Form (Annex A, Lot 1 to 6) titled RFP No: KBL RFP 003 Provision of Transportation and Rental Vehicle Services. Therefore, the DRC requests you to submit price bid(s) for abovementioned services listed on the attached DRC Bid Form Annex A. 1. Tender Details The Tender details are as follows: Services: Provision of Transportation and Rental Vehicle Services RFP Release Date: 20th June, 2017 RFP Closure Date: 6th July, 2017 Time: 4:00pm Afghanistan Local time. RFP Pre‐Bid Submission: 22nd June, 2017 Time: 10:00am Afghanistan Local time. RFP Opening Date: 9th July, 2017 Time: 10:00am Afghanistan Local Time. Required Minimum validity period: 60 Official Working Days PLEASE NOTE: NO BIDS WILL BE ACCEPTED AFTER THE ABOVE CLOSING TIME AND DATE 2. Contract Award Criteria The criteria for awarding contracts resulting from this Tender is based on the ‘best value for money’ principle. For the purpose of this Tender DRC defines ‘best value for money’ as: Best value for money should not be equated with the lowest initial bid option. It requires an integrated assessment of technical, organizational and pricing factors in light of their relative importance (i.e. -
Afghanistan Review Week 32 09 August 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises
CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CEN TRE Afghanistan Review Week 32 09 August 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises INSIDE THIS ISSUE This document provides a weekly overview of developments in Afghanistan from 02 August—08 August 2011, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For Economic Development more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, feel free to con- Governance & Rule of Law Humanitarian Affairs tact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. Infrastructure Security & Force Protection Socio-Cultural Development Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected] DISCLAIMER ontinuing a story from last week’s Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas Afghanistan Review (see 02 August pipeline project is moving ahead, and an The Civil-Military Fusion Centre C 2011), Reuters reports that approxi- agreement on natural gas pricing is expected (CFC) is an information and mately 2,500 Afghanistan-bound shipping in the coming weeks. Afghanistan’s Ministry knowledge management containers continue to be held in Karachi, Pa- of Mines (MoM) indicates that the pricing organisation focused on improving kistan, as a result of a regulatory impasse re- agreement will enable the Afghan government civil-military interaction, facilitating lated to the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit to project how much it can expect to receive in information sharing and enhancing Trade Agreement (APTTA). Under the APT- natural gas transit fees once the pipeline is situational awareness through the TA, importers are required to pay a non- operational. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty CimicWeb portal and our weekly refundable fee to Pakistani banks or insurance did, however, report concerns that the pipeline and monthly publications. -
World Bank Document
AFGHANISTAN EDUCATION QUALITY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM-II Public Disclosure Authorized MINISTRY OF EDUCATION PROCUREMENT PLAN FY2008-10-11 Public Disclosure Authorized Procurement Management Unit Education Quality Imrpovement Program-II Revised Procurement Plan EQUIP II (Revision Ref.: 04 on 15-05-10) General Public Disclosure Authorized 1 Project information: Education Quality Improvement Project II (EQUIP II) Country: Afghanistan Borrower: Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Project Name: Education Quality Improvement Project II (EQUIP II) Grant No.: H 354 –AF Project ID : P106259 P106259 Project Implementing Agency: Ministry of Education of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 2 Bank’s approval date of the procurement Plan : 17 Nov.2007 (Original:) 3 Period covered by this procurement plan: One year Procurement for the proposed project would be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s “Guidelines: Procurement Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits” dated May 2004; and “Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers” dated May 2004, and the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement. The procurement will be done through competitive bidding using the Bank’s Standard Bidding Documents (SBD). The general description of various items under different expenditure category are described. For each contract to Public Disclosure Authorized be financed by the Loan/Credit, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame are agreed between the Recipient and the Bank project team in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. II. Goods and Works and consulting services.