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THREATS? • Projections Suggest Schwarz Group Will Add Around €43 Billion to Its Annual Sales in the Period 2014-20, Taking Its Revenues to €122 Billion

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THREATS? • Projections Suggest Schwarz Group Will Add Around €43 Billion to Its Annual Sales in the Period 2014-20, Taking Its Revenues to €122 Billion European Grocery Discounters report Nov. 2015 EUROPEAN • Schwarz Group and Aldi, the two largest discounters, are the third and seventh biggest grocery retailers in the world, GROCERY respectively. Schwarz Group, owner of Lidl and Kaufland, DISCOUNTERS: leapfrogged Tesco to become the world’s third-biggest SMALL grocer in 2014. STORES– • Lidl has been an outstanding performer in recent years, due to its adept mingling of hard discount with elements of a softer proposition. • Projections based on historic growth rates suggest the top nine discount chains will grow their annual sales by an extra BIG €79 billion, or 41%, between 2014 and 2020. THREATS? • Projections suggest Schwarz Group will add around €43 billion to its annual sales in the period 2014-20, taking its revenues to €122 billion. Aldi could add an extra €20 billion in annual sales over the same period, taking its revenues to DEBORAH WEINSWIG €81 billion. Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology • In markets where discounters will continue to grow share, Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] we think competing retailers face a future of smaller average US: 646.839.7017 basket sizes and lower margins, as consumers split their HK: 852.6119.1779 CHN: 86.186.1420.3016 shopping among different stores and as retailers are forced to compete more aggressively on price. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 1 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. European Grocery Discounters report Nov. 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS DEFINING A GROCERY DISCOUNTER ........................................................................................................... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 4 PROSPECTS: A SMALLER BASKET, LOWER MARGIN FUTURE? .................................................................... 8 OVERVIEW: THE STATE OF THE SECTOR ................................................................................................... 12 METRICS: THE BIGGEST GROCERY DISCOUNTERS .................................................................................... 19 PROFILE: SCHWARZ GROUP (LIDL AND KAUFLAND) ................................................................................. 25 PROFILE: ALDI (NORD AND SÜD) .............................................................................................................. 33 PROFILES: OTHER MAJOR DISCOUNTERS ................................................................................................. 40 IN SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................ 49 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 2 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. European Grocery Discounters report Nov. 2015 DEFINING A GROCERY DISCOUNTER The gRoceRy discounteRs that are the focus of this RepoRt GeRmany is the heaRtland of gRoceRy discounteRs; it is the include the big, limited-line, no-frills hard discounteRs, such home of big names such as Aldi, Lidl, Kaufland, Netto as Aldi and Lidl, as well as the majoR soft discounters, such MaRken-Discount and Penny. These types of stoRes account as Penny, whose stoRes typically stock moRe bRands and for more than 40% of German grocery sector sales, moRe pRoduct lines oveRall. accoRding to multiple souRces. “Discounter” is a slippery concept. Technically, the Retailers Even beyond GeRmany, these kinds of gRoceRy discounteRs coveRed in this RepoRt aRe not usually discounting the are pRedominantly EuRopean. The other big players products they sell—they are simply selling groceries at an discussed in this Report come fRom Portugal (though it everyday low pRice. They do this by offering limited choice opeRates stores only in Poland; Biedronka), Spain (DIA), and focusing on pRivate-label Ranges, which means they NoRway (REMA 1000) and DenmaRk (Netto). We also coveR drive laRge volumes through each product line. This allows Trader Joe’s, which operates stores solely in the US but is them to source in bulk, sometimes from major brand GeRman owned. Because of EuRope’s dominance of the owneRs, keeping quality levels high and prices low. sectoR, the pRincipal cuRRency we use foR RetaileR data in this TheRe are seveRal defining characteRistics of a gRoceRy report is the euro. discounteR: Excluded fRom ouR definition of gRoceRy discounteRs are: • Limited Ranges—haRd discounteRs have tRaditionally • Supermarkets, hypermarkets, supercenters and offeRed aRound 600 – 1,000 lines in each stoRe, although waRehouse clubs. Kaufland is the exception to ouR this has crept up in some chains. By contrast, SKU hypeRmaRket exclusion. counts can be as high as 50,000 in EuRopean • Discount geneRal meRchandiseRs, such as dollaR hypeRmaRkets. stoRes/pound shops/euRo stoRes. • Private-label dominance—haRd discounteRs have • Convenience stores. traditionally focused almost exclusively on their own The following discount fascias (and theiR parents/domiciles) brands, although seveRal majoR players have incReased are at the coRe of ouR analysis: the presence of major brands on their store shelves recently. • Aldi (Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd, GeRmany) • Smaller stoRes—limited Ranges and limited bRand choice • Lidl (Schwarz GRoup, Germany) typically translate into smaller stores, of around 800 • Kaufland (Schwarz GRoup, Germany) squaRe meteRs at the likes of Aldi and Lidl. Discount • Netto MaRken-Discount (Edeka, GeRmany) hypeRmaRket Kaufland is the major exception to this, • Penny (REWE GRoup) but we include Kaufland as a discounteR due to its • Biedronka (JeRónimo MaRtins, Portugal) private-label focus and discount pRoposition; it shaRes many commonalities with its sisteR chain, Lidl. • DIA (Spain) • EveRyday-low-price proposition—rather than relying on • TradeR Joe’s (owned by Aldi’s AlbRecht family)— a high/low pRomotional stance, discounters have although we view this Retailer as boRderline discount traditionally offered everyday low prices. • REMA 1000 (Reitan GRoup, Norway) • GeneRal absence of fRills—elements such as in-stoRe • Netto (Dansk SupeRmaRked, DenmaRk). The Danish meRchandising and seRvices such as online Retailing and Netto is distinct fRom Netto MaRken-Discount in loyalty pRogRams tend to be minimal. GeRmany and fRom the FRench Netto chain. Note: Aldi is comprised of two sister companies, Aldi Nord and Aldi Süd. For operational data, such as revenues, we treat them as one in this report. Abbreviations CAGR Compound annual growth Rate Capex Capital expenditure EBITDA Earnings befoRe inteRest, tax, depReciation and amoRtization JV Joint venture NRF National Retail FedeRation SKU Stock-keeping unit DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 3 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. European Grocery Discounters report Nov. 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WINNERS IN THE FLIGHT TO BUDGET RETAILERS • Small-stoRe, limited-line gRoceRy discounteRs have been among the winneRs in postRecession Retail, benefiting fRom shoppeRs’ flight to budget stores in Europe, the US and AustRalia. • InteRnational expansion and a newfound flexing of the pRoposition by discounteRs have undeRpinned theiR outpeRformance of the gRoceRy sector. • The top nine discount chains that are the focus of this repoRt have gRown theiR aggRegate sales by moRe than the combined total European and US grocery sector average for the past five years. THE WORLD’S TOP GROCERY RETAILERS • Schwarz GRoup and Aldi are the biggest discounters, and they are among the biggest Retailers in the woRld. Sales figuRes Released by Lidl and Kaufland owner Schwarz GRoup suggest that it leapfRogged Tesco to become the world’s thiRd-biggest gRoceR in 2014. • Note that WalmaRt’s Revenues include a veRy substantial element of nongRoceRy: some 44% of fiscal yeaR 2015 sales weRe in nongRoceRy categoRies. Figure 1. The World’s Biggest Grocery Retailers’ Net Revenues, 2014 and 2013 (€ Billion) 371.1 Walmart 357.9 81.7 Kroger 74.1 79.3 Schwarz (Lidl and Kaufland) 74.0 78.4 2014 2013 Tesco 75.1 76.3 CarRefouR 76.7 63.9 Seven & i Holdings 64.0 60.8 Aldi GRoup (Est.) 58.2 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Source: Company reports/S&P Capital IQ/Euromonitor/FBIC Global Retail & Technology DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 4 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. European Grocery Discounters report Nov. 2015 • Lidl and Aldi operate in a different league than theiR closest discounter Rivals. Both aRe pRivately owned and disclosure is limited or negligible. PRofit data, for instance, is not available. Figure 2. Top Discounters: Net Revenues, 2014 (€ Billion) 90 79.3 80 70 Kaufland 20.3 60 50 40 Lidl 60.8 30 59.0 20 10 12.0 10.9 9.4 8.4 7.1 5.9 5.5 0 DIA Penny Aldi (Est.) BiedRonka Neto (Est.) REMA 1000 Schwarz GRoup TRadeR Joe's (Est.) Neto Marken-Discount Source: Company reports/S&P Capital IQ/Euromonitor/NRF/FBIC Global Retail & Technology • EuRope’s biggest nondiscount gRoceRs are Tesco and CarRefouR, and they Remain biggeR than any single
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