Intelligence Studies Section Panels at ISA 2016 16-19 March 2016 in Atlanta, GA See below for the Intelligence Studies Section program at the International Studies Association (ISA) conference, 16-19 March 2016 in Atlanta, .

The Intelligence Studies Section is one of 28 thematic sections that make up the ISA, has approximately 350 members, and has been sponsoring research about intelligence as a function of government since the mid-1980s. Additional information can be found here: http://www.isanet.org/ISA/Sections/ISS.aspx

This Intelligence Studies Section content (4 straight days...28 panels and roundtables) is one small part of ISA’s much larger conference. The full conference program is over 300 pages; find details at the full conference website here: http://www.isanet.org/Conferences/Atlanta-2016

As the chair of the Intelligence Studies Section, if you have any questions please contact me at [email protected] or [email protected] Regards, Dr. Stephen Marrin ISAT/Intelligence Analysis James Madison University http://www.isat.jmu.edu/people/marrin.html https://jmu.academia.edu/StephenMarrin ------WEDNESDAY 16 MARCH 2016

WA31: Wednesday 8:15 AM - 10:00 AM Heroism, Sacrifice and Memory in the Spy World Chair Charlotte V. Heath Kelly (University of Warwick) Disc. Richard James Aldrich (University of Warwick) The CIA Memorial Wall: A Monument to Secrecy Christopher R. Moran (Warwick University) Johnny Mike Spann, CIA & Mystic Chords of Sacrifice, Heroism and Memory Andrew Hammond (University of Warwick) Going on a Snipe Hunt: The Search for the Hero Analyst Mark Stout (Johns Hopkins University) Early Modern Spies, Heroes or Hirelings? Insights from a Pre-modern ‘CIA’ Ioanna Iordanou (Oxfrod Brookes) “Holding out for a hero?” CIA Trailblazers and the leadership of . Dee Dutta (University of Warwick)

WB31: Wednesday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Perspectives on intelligence and decision-making Chair Ruben Arcos (Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid) and Randy Pherson (Pherson Associates) Disc. Julian J. Richards (University of Buckingham) Ethics and decisions: why should it matter to intelligence? Fernando Velasco The Opportunities Incubator™: A New Technique for Making Strategic Foresight Analysis Actionable Randy Pherson (Pherson Associates) Communication and decisionmaking: implications for intelligence Ruben Arcos (Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid (Spain)) Military Intelligence as a Decisionmaking Tool: Conventional and Asymmetric Cases William J. Lahneman (Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University) Intelligence and Knowledge Development: What are the questions Intelligence Professionals Ask? Charles Vandepeer (University of Adelaide)

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WB84: Wednesday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Beyond the "Neuromancer": New and Old Ways of Examining Cyberspace Chair Emily Goldman (Department of Defense) Disc. Catherine Lotrionte (Georgetown University) The Violence of Hacking: The Normative Environment of State Violence in Cyberspace Aaron F. Brantly (U.S. Military Academy, West Point) The logic of bargaining with cyber weapons. Richard Andres (National Defense University) The changing face of war in cyberspace Michael Warner (US Department of Defense)

LUNCHTIME EVENT Wednesday 12:30-1:30PM: Intelligence Studies Section Business Meeting (all attendees welcome).

WC31: Wednesday 1:45 PM - 3:30 PM Intelligence Analysis and the Analyst-Policymaker Relationship: Key Case Studies since 1945 Chair & Disc: Michael Warner (US Department of Defense) Their Masters' Voices: The Intelligence Reporting on the West of the Stasi and KGB, 194591 Paul Maddrell (Loughborough University) Enemies or Opportunities: Israeli Intelligence Perceptions in a Changing Middle East Shlomo Shpiro (Bar-Ilan University) Doomed from the Start: Detente and American and Soviet Estimative Intelligence Benjamin Fischer (Retired) Pakistani Intelligence and Julian J. Richards (University of Buckingham) Personality, Contingency and Culture in American Intelligence Assessments of the Al Qaeda Threat Mark Stout (Johns Hopkins University)

WC64: Wednesday 1:45 PM - 3:30 PM Intelligence Secrecy, Privacy, and Accountability Chair Daniel S. Gressang (US Department of Defense) Disc. Genevieve Lester (Georgetown University) They Love Me, They Love Me Not: Privacy Norms, Public Opinion, and Government Surveillance in the War on Terror Stephen Okin (Georgetown University) Who’s Watching Us, and Why Should We Care? Erik Dahl (Naval Postgraduate School) Does Intelligence Demand Secrecy? Adam Henschke (National Security College, Australian National University) Accountability for the intelligence and security services: what does it mean and how could it be improved? Jamie Gaskarth (University of Plymouth) Reform in the IC: A Lesson in Irony Melissa A. Graves (University of Mississippi)

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WD28: Wednesday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM Intelligence and National Security Decision-Making Chair & Disc. Erik Dahl (Naval Postgraduate School) Communicating Probability in National Security: Experimental Evidence from Military Decision Makers Jeffrey Friedman (Dartmouth College), Jennifer Lerner (Harvard University) and Richard Zeckhauser (Harvard University) Secrecy or Sunshine? How Leaks Affect Foreign Policy DecisionMaking Allison Carnegie (Columbia University) and Keren Milo (Princeton University) Strategic Warning Intelligence and Indicators for Peace Cathryn Thurston (National Intelligence University) Why Wisdom is Difficult to Achieve in Intelligence Products and Processes Michael Andregg (University of St. Thomas) A Prisoner's Dilemma Approach for Reducing Uncertainty in Intelligence Driven Mediations Christen Lee (Georgetown University)

WD31: Wednesday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM New Perspectives on Covert Action Chair Loch K. Johnson (University of Georgia) Disc. Richard James Aldrich (University of Warwick) Shades of Grey: Discreet and Covert Propaganda in Cold War British Practice, 1948-1963 Thomas Maguire (Darwin College, University of Cambridge) Bureaucratic Politics and the Construction of British Covert Action, 1948-1968 Rory Cormac (University of Nottingham) Did It Ever Happen? JFK, Bay of Pigs, and a Secret Press Briefing David M. Barrett (Villanova University) The limits of covert action: SAS operations during 'Confrontation', 1964-66 Christopher Tuck (JSCSC, Department of Defense) British deception in the early cold war: the strategic, the tactical, and the bizarre Huw Dylan (King's College London)

WD50: Wednesday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM A Look to the Future of Intelligence Education: Musts and Don’ts in Intelligence Teaching and Research Chair Stephen Marrin (James Madison University) Disc. Joseph S. Gordon (National Defense Intelligence College) Teaching Intelligence Studies for the 21st Century: Issues and Approaches Mark Phythian & David Strachan-Morris (University of Leicester) International Cooperation in Intelligence Education and Research: Strategies for innovation in a Changing World Niculae Iancu (Romanian Domestic Intelligence Service (SRI)) Towards Strategic Partnerships through Intelligence: Building a Regional Intelligence Education Program Irena Chiru (National Intelligence Academy) Simulation/Gaming Theory for the practice of intelligence analysis education and training Ruben Arcos (Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid (Spain)) Changing the Course: Steering the National Intelligence University's Curriculum for a New Generation of Intelligence Professionals Duncan McGill (National Intelligence University)

EVENING EVENT Wednesday 7:00-9:00PM: Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) Distinguished Scholar Roundtable and Reception, Honoring Jim Wirtz Sponsors: Rowman & Littlefield Publishing Group; Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group; Georgetown University Press, & Praeger ABC-CLIO

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THURSDAY 17 MARCH 2016

TA31: Thursday 8:15 AM - 10:00 AM Strategic analysis in support of international policy-making Chair Thomas A. Juneau (University of Ottawa) Disc. Stephen Marrin (James Madison University) Here (very likely) Be Dragons? The Challenges of Policy Relevant Prediction Rex Brynen (McGill University) NATO Defense College: Navigating between Strategic Education, Critical Analysis and Partnerships Brooke Smith-Windsor Strategic analysis in support of international policymaking and the pursuit of relevance: A synthesis Thomas A. Juneau (University of Ottawa) The Practise of Open Intelligence: The Experience of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service Jean-Louis Tiernan (Government of Canada) Stratfor: Merging Intelligence & Geopolitics Syed Kamran Bokhari (University of Westminster)

TA74: Thursday 8:15 AM - 10:00 AM Intelligence and Threat Chair Aaron F. Brantly (U.S. Military Academy, West Point) Disc. James J. Wirtz (Naval Postgraduate School) ENISA, the Cybersecurity European Strategy and the fundaments for a Portuguese Intelligence National Cybersecurity Strategy Sandra Maria Rodrigues Balao (ISCSP-CAPP(P&G)-University of Lisbon) Testing the Terror Network Theory Daniela Richterova (University of Warwick) Security Institutions, Use of Force and the State: A Moral Framework Shannon Ford (Charles Sturt University) Data driven fantasies and maps of human terrain:Data driven fantasies and maps of human terrain: a critical investigation of the knowledge underpinning contemporary Western CounterInsurgency in Afghanistan Ben Walter (University of Queensland) The role of privatized cyberattack intelligence gathering and public dissemination in keeping the peace in cyberspace Thomas Winston (George Mason University)

TB31: Thursday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Locally Nuanced Intelligence in Peacebuilding and Stability Operations Chair Stephen Marrin (James Madison University) Disc. Leonard DeFrancisci (Reserve Civil Affairs and USMC Force Headquarters Group) Adapting research methods of qualitative interviewing and causal inference to locally nuanced peacebuilding and stability operations Joel Lawton (U.S. Army, Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G-2) Integrating qualitative interviewing and causal inference into locally nuanced peacebuilding and stability operations Jonathan Bleakley (83rd Civil Affairs Battalion) Locally nuanced economic development John Hoven (self) Integrating qualitative interviewing and causal inference into locally nuanced peacebuilding and stability operations Rob Morris (97th Civil Affairs Battalion (Airborne) Observing bottom-up innovation, and resistance to innovation, within the US military and intelligence community Terry C. Quist (U.S. Army)

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TB63: Thursday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Intelligence Education and Training in Academic and Professional Institutions Chair William C. Spracher (National Intelligence University) Disc. Larry A. Valero (University of Texas at El Paso) Intelligence Degrees in the : Elucidating Typologies and Issues as the Dust Settles in the “Wild West” Stephen Coulthart (University of Texas at El Paso) and Michael Landon-Murray (University of Colorado, Colorado Springs) Fragile Friendships: Partnerships between the Academy and Intelligence Matthew D. Crosston (Bellevue University) Intelligence Education as Envisioned by the National Intelligence University: Emerging Certificates, Concentrations, and Offsite Academic Centers to Complement Accredited Degree Programs William C. Spracher (National Intelligence University) Teaching Intelligence Analysis: Reconciling Conflicting Approaches Michael W. Collier (Eastern Kentucky University) Communicating Cyber Threat Information to Non-Technical Customers How Can Education Improve Analytic Salience and Clarity? Brian H. Nussbaum (State University of New York, Albany)

TB79: Thursday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Making Intelligence Organizations More Effective: Challenges and Opportunities Chair & Disc. John A. Gentry (independent) Performance of the Intelligence Community: A Bureaucratic Perspective Joe Faragone (University of Ottawa) Smart Power Constraints on Intelligence Nathalie Frensley (ORAU/ORISE Visiting Scientist to NGA) and Russell Swenson (National Intelligence University) The Intelligence Doctrine Challenge: Balancing Chaos and Order to Increase Organisational Efficiency and Effectiveness Aitana Bogdan (National Intelligence Academy ”Mihai Viteazul”) Change for the Better? Challenges and Issues in Reorganizing the CIA’s Clandestine Service Brice Coates (University of Calgary) Intelligence Leadership; What is it? And Does it Really Matter? Dr. Patrick F. Walsh (Charles Sturt University)

TC31: Thursday 1:45 PM - 3:30 PM Improving Intelligence Analysis Chair and Disc. Julian J. Richards (University of Buckingham) Knowing When Analytic Tradecraft Won't Work James Kajdasz (United States Air Force Academy) Scenario Analysis: Combining intelligence analysis methods. Humberto Hinestrosa (Brunel University) Interdisciplinary Teams in Intelligence Analysis: An Experiment at NC State Kathleen M. Vogel, Melissa Adams, Joy Davis, Percy Hooper, Jessica Jameson, Sharon Joines, Deborah Littlejohn, Hector Rendon, Beverly Tyler (North Carolina State University) and Brian Evans (Research Triangle Institute) Mirror Imaging Revisited: The Case of Putin's Russia Terry C. Quist (U.S. Army) Sense Making and Risk Assessment in Intelligence Analysis: Time Pressure, Uncertainty, and Trust in Data William A. Boettcher (North Carolina State University)

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TD31: Thursday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM Does Intelligence Matter? Evaluating the Effect of Intelligence on International Outcomes Chair David Strachan-Morris (University of Leicester) Disc. Jon Moran (University of Leicester) Reform, foreign policy, and the near abroad: Russian military intelligence machinery and the destabilisation of Eastern Paul Boxer (Brunel university) The Iranian Intelligence War (2003-2015): Analyzing ’s Use of Covert Action and Paramilitary Proxies to achieve Regional Supremacy Chad Fitzgerald (United States Military Academy) Cold War Intelligence The United States Military Liaison Mission in East Germany 1947-1990 Brian Powers (National Intelligence University) National Security and Surveillance: The Impact of the GCSB Amendment Bill and the Snowden Revelations in New Zealand Robert G. Patman (University of Otago)

EVENING EVENT Thursday 7:30-8:30PM: Pherson Associates Reception

FRIDAY 18 MARCH 2016

FA31: Friday 8:15 AM - 10:00 AM Designing an Intelligence Studies Academic Program Chair & Disc. Erik Dahl (Naval Postgraduate School) Analyzing Intelligence Degree Programs Matthew D. Crosston (Bellevue University) Intelligence Education Post 9/11: Australian Trends, Challenges and Issues Shannon Ford (Charles Sturt University) and Dr. Patrick F. Walsh (Charles Sturt University) Teaching Intelligence Through Theory and Practice Michael Warner (US Department of Defense) The Art of Deception and the Role of Intelligence Education William Mitchell (Royal Danish Defence College) Trials of Adopting an Intel Studies Program Mike W. Fowler (US Air Force Academy)

FB31: Friday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Building an Intelligence Culture in a Democracy: Challenges and Prospects for Success Chair Cris Matei (Naval Postgraduate School) Disc. Mark Phythian (University of Leicester) Toward an Intelligence Culture in Portugal Thomas C. Bruneau (Naval Postgraduate School) Intelligence Transformation in Belgium and Italy: A Comparison Stephane J. Lefebvre (Carleton University) and Stefania Paladini (Coventry University) US Cyber Intelligence Sharing Frameworks Scott Jasper (Naval Postgraduate School) Chile's Intelligence Reform after Pinochet: Is There an Intelligence Culture? Cris Matei (Naval Postgraduate School) and Andres de Castro Garcia (ANEPE) Trajectories of Intelligence Building: Japan in the Post Cold War Deirdre Quinn Martin (University of California, Berkeley)

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FB46: Friday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Learning About Intelligence by Comparing it to Other Disciplines Chair & Disc. Dr. Patrick F. Walsh (Charles Sturt University) The “Profession” of Analysis Debate Revisited: What Intelligence Analysis Is and Why the Debate is Flawed John A. Gentry (independent) Learning from the Comparison between Intelligence Analysis and Journalism Stephen Marrin (James Madison University) Robustness and Reducon of Uncertainty in Intelligence Analysis: An InfoGap Perspective Yakov Ben-Haim (Technion-Israel Institute of Technology) Improving How to Communicate in Intelligence Analysis and Medicine Efren Torres (Brunel University) Professionalizing Intelligence: How do other professions approach failure and success? Charles Vandepeer (University of Adelaide)

FC31: Friday 1:45 PM - 3:30 PM Improving Our Understanding of the Theory and Practice of National Security Intelligence Chair & Disc. Hamilton Bean (University of Colorado at Denver) The Evolution of Intelligence Studies: 30 Years of INS Damien Van Puyvelde (The University of Texas at El Paso) Discourses on Intelligence A Theory of Public Approach and Dimensions Olli J. Teirila (Finnish National Defence University) Hybrid Conflicts in the 21st Century: The Need for New Models in Intelligence Marian Sebe (National Intelligence Academy) Eroding the International Order: Realism, Liberalism, and Covert Operations Spencer L Willardson (Nazarbayev University (Astana, )) Intelligence culture: an explanation from neoinstitutionalism Antonio M Diaz-Fernandez (University of Cádiz)

FD21: Friday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM Unredacted: shaping perceptions, dispelling myth, and creating a well-informed citizenry Chair Vincent Houghton (International Spy Museum) Part. Mark Stout (Johns Hopkins University) Part. John Fox (Federal Bureau of Investigation) Part. Donald P. Jacobs (Georgetown University Press) Part. Damien Van Puyvelde (The University of Texas at El Paso) Part. Christopher R. Moran (Warwick University) Part. Richard James Aldrich (University of Warwick)

FD31: Friday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM ‘The Other Side of the Hill’ - Insurgent Intelligence in Counterinsurgency Chair & Disc. Jon Moran (University of Leicester) The NVA/Viet Cong use of intelligence: Lessons for Intelligence Studies David Strachan-Morris (University of Leicester) Intelligence in a modern insurgency: the case of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal Paul Jackson (University of Birmingham) The war is not yet over’: The political sociology of intelligence in eastern Africa Jonathan Fisher (University of Birmingham) On the word of a supergrass: An unlikely source of intelligence Rachel Monaghan (University of Ulster) Clandestine struggle in South Arabia: The intelligence war between the British and the NLF Aaron Edwards (Royal Military Academy Sandhurst)

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SATURDAY 19 MARCH 2016

SA31: Saturday 8:15 AM - 10:00 AM Intelligence Governance Challenges in Latin America Chair Eduardo E. Estevez (Foundation for Economic Studies and Public Policy (FEEPP)) Disc. Thomas C. Bruneau (Naval Postgraduate School) Intelligence and Public Policy: strengthening factors Carolina Sancho Intelligence Governance in Colombia: Lessons Learnt and Challenges for the Future Zakia Shiraz (University of Warwick) Intelligence activities & democratic institutions, between the raison d’état and the rule of law. Corruption and human rights violations in intelligence activities Tobias Bock (Transparency International Defence & Security Program), Hernan Charosky (Universidad de Palermo Law School), & Mustafa Saad (former research lead at Transparency International Defence & Security Program) An overview of Intelligence activity in Latin America progress, recurrent problems and challenges. Jose Manuel Ugarte (Universidad de Buenos Aires) Intelligence challenges in Latin America: Between reforms, criminal intelligence and citizen security policies Alejandra Otamendi (University of Buenos Aires & L’École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales) & Eduardo E. Estevez (Foundation for Economic Studies & Public Policy (FEEPP))

SB21: Saturday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Intelligence Analysis Outside of Government – A Roundtable of Industry Security Experts Chair Jasen J. Castillo (Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M) Part. Matt Burdette (UnitedHealthcare Global Risk); Part. Efren Torres (Brunel University) Part. David Strachan-Morris (University of Leicester)

SB31: Saturday 10:30 AM - 12:15 PM Prospects for, and Challenges to, Intelligence Sharing and Cooperation Chair & Disc. Stephane J. Lefebvre (Carleton University) European intelligence: between horizontal convergence and vertical integration? Olivier Chopin (Sciences Po Paris - EHESS) Secrets to Share: The Role of Culture and Informality in Peacekeeping Intelligence Sarah-Myriam Martin-Brule (Bishop's University) For Our Eyes Only: The Practice of Intelligence Sharing Among Friends Steven Loleski (University of Toronto) “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”: costs and benefits of conjunctural Intelligence cooperation Elena-Daniela Baches (Brunel University) Dreaming peace: A content analysis of the AfPak Intelligence agreement coverage in Pakistani, Afghan, and Indian newspapers Awais Saleem (Florida State University) & Stephen D. McDowell (Florida State University)

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SC31: Saturday 1:45 PM - 3:30 PM Big Data and National Security Chair Damien Van Puyvelde (The University of Texas at El Paso) Disc. Daniel S. Gressang (US Department of Defense) Supporting Big Data in the IC: Is U.S. Higher Education Ready to Meet the Demand for Data Science and Scientists? Michael Landon-Murray (University of Colorado, Colorado Springs) From Los Angeles to Kabul: Synthesizing the Evidence on Big Data Analytics in Intelligence Stephen Coulthart (University of Texas at El Paso) Methodologies for Harnessing the Power of Big Data Randy Pherson (Pherson Associates) Big Data and the ‘Minority Report’ Approach to Intelligence: Predictive Analytics and Challenges to U.S. Privacy Law Sara Kristene McGuire (University of Texas at El Paso) Big Data Intelligence: a UK case study Anno Bunnik (Liverpool Hope University, Centre for Applied Research in Security Innovation) Sensor vs Human Derived Big Data for Intelligence Aaron F. Brantly (U.S. Military Academy, West Point)

SC64: Saturday 1:45 PM - 3:30 PM Explaining Intelligence Organizations in National Contexts: Does the Country Matter? Chair & Disc. Mark Stout (Johns Hopkins University) UK Prime Ministers and Secret Intelligence: From Circumspection to Centrality Richard James Aldrich (University of Warwick) and Rory Cormac (University of Nottingham) Indian Distrust and Drastic Cuts: The Desai Government’s Uneasy Relationship with Indian Intelligence R. Shaffer (Stony Brook) Do we need more intelligence: Canadian national security challenges and intelligence requirements Jeremy Littlewood (Carleton University) Reinterpreting and Reimagining Intelligence in Botswana Gladys Mokhawa and Kekgaoditse Suping (University of Botswana) The concept of “organizational culture” in Intelligence: a holistic framework to shape the Intelligence Culture among national agencies Elena-Daniela Baches (Brunel University)

SD27: Saturday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM The Dark Arts: Espionage and Counterintelligence Chair & Disc: Benjamin Fischer (Retired) Views on Successful Espionage Joe Wippl (Boston University) The Defector Conundrum in and the West Ralph Sawyer (Independent Scholar) Spies as "Scouts for Peace"? The case of the German double agent Heinz Felfe Bodo Hechelhammer (Working and Research Group "History of the BND") Interview with a Spy: Toward a Theory of Counterintelligence Carl Jensen (The Citadel) and Melissa A. Graves (University of Mississippi) Dangle Operations in the Cold War: The Early Years Igor Lukes (Boston University)

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SD31: Saturday 4:00 PM - 5:45 PM The Secretive State: Intelligence, Keeping Secrets and Whistleblowers Chair & Disc. Jan Goldman (Tiffin University) The Ethics of State Secrets: Snowden, Wikileaks, and the Need for Secrets? Ross W. Bellaby (University of Sheffield) Secrecy and Power in the FBI’s Experience: Examples and Lessons from History John Fox (Federal Bureau of Investigation) Secrecy and Trust: Challenges for Intelligence Oversight in the Post Snowden Era Mark Phythian (University of Leicester) Ethical Implications of the Snowden Revelations : As seen by a guy who studies Spies Michael Andregg (University of St. Thomas) British Intelligence Secrets and the British Public Abigail Blyth (Aberystwyth University)

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