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Flood Disaster Preparedness and Impacts on Rural Households: a Comparative Study of Mwandi District of Zambia and Eastern Zambezi Region of Namibia

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Flood Disaster Preparedness and Impacts on Rural Households: a Comparative Study of Mwandi District of Zambia and Eastern Zambezi Region of Namibia FLOOD DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND IMPACTS ON RURAL HOUSEHOLDS: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF MWANDI DISTRICT OF ZAMBIA AND EASTERN ZAMBEZI REGION OF NAMIBIA by M.P. MABUKU Submitted in partial fulfilment of the academic requirements of Doctor of Philosophy Agricultural Engineering School of Engineering College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science University of KwaZulu-Natal Pietermaritzburg South Africa (December, 2019) PREFACE The research contained in this thesis was completed by the candidate while based in the Discipline of Agricultural engineering, School of Engineering of the College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa. The research was financially supported by WaterNet, National Commission on Research Science and Technology (NCRST) of Namibia and Namibia Students Financial Assistance Fund (NSFAF). The contents of this work have not been submitted in any form to another university and, except where the work of others is acknowledged in the text, the results reported are due to investigations by the candidate. Signed: Date Supervisor: Dr. A. Senzanje ________________ ________________ Co-supervisor: Prof. M.M. Mudhara _______________ ______________ Co-supervisor: Prof. G.P.W. Jewitt _______________ ______________ Co-supervisor: Prof. W.O. Mulwafu _______________ ______________ i DECLARATION OF PLAGIARISM I, Monde Patrina Mabuku, declare that: (i) the research reported in this dissertation, except where otherwise indicated or acknowledged, is my original work; (ii) this dissertation has not been submitted in full or in part for any degree or examination to any other university; (iii) this dissertation does not contain other persons’ data, pictures, graphs or other information, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other persons; (iv) this dissertation does not contain other persons’ writing, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other researchers. Where other written sources have been quoted, then: a) their words have been re-written but the general information attributed to them has been referenced; b) where their exact words have been used, their writing has been placed inside quotation marks, and referenced; (v) where I have used material for which publications followed, I have indicated in detail my role in the work; (vi) this dissertation is primarily a collection of material, prepared by myself, published as journal articles or presented as a poster and oral presentations at conferences. In some cases, additional material has been included; (vii) this dissertation does not contain text, graphics or tables copied and pasted from the Internet, unless specifically acknowledged, and the source being detailed in the dissertation and in the References sections. _____________________ Signed: Monde Patrina Mabuku Date: 9th December, 2019 ii DECLARATION OF PUBLICATIONS My role in each paper and presentation is indicated. The * indicates corresponding author. Chapter 3 1. Mabuku, M. P.,* Senzanje, A., Mudhara, M., Jewitt, G.P.W., & Mulwafu, W. 2018. Evaluating the impacts of floods in Zambia and Namibia: A Propensity Score Matching Approach. This .paper is in preparation. The paper is based on the data I collected from household survey, interviews and observations. I designed the survey questions, collected, analysed the data and wrote the paper. Chapter 4 2. Mabuku, M. P.,* Senzanje, A., Mudhara, M., Jewitt, G.P.W, & Mulwafu, W. 2018. Rural households’ flood preparedness and social determinants in Mwandi district of Zambia and Eastern Zambezi Region of Namibia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 28, 284–297. http://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJDRR.2018.03.014. This paper is an analysis of data collected using the data instruments such as household surveys, focus group discussion and observations. I designed the questionnaire, collected, analysed the data and wrote the paper. The paper, was presented at the 16th Waternet/WARFSA/GWP-SA symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management and Infrastructure planning for water security in southern Africa - 28 to 30 October 2015, Mauritius. The presentation was awarded the Best Young Scientist Award under Water and Society theme. The presentation was done by Mabuku PM. Chapter 5 3. Mabuku P.M.,* Senzanje, A., Mudhara, M., Jewitt, G. P. W. & Mulwafu, W. O. (2019). Strategies for coping and adapting to flooding and their determinants: A comparative study of cases from Namibia and Zambia. Physics and Chemistry of iii the Earth, Parts A/B/C, (October 2018), 0–1. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2018.12.009. The paper was presented at the 17th WaterNet/WARFSA/GWP-SA Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management: Water Security, Sustainability and Development in Eastern and southern Africa held on 26th -28th of October 2016, Gaborone, Botswana. The paper is an analysis of data collected through a survey. The paper was published in the Journal of Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. I designed the questionnaires, collected, analysed the data and wrote the paper. I also presented part of this paper at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly held on 24th - 28th of April 2017 in Vienna, Austria. The title of the presentation was “The influence of gender and age on the choice of flood adaptation strategy: The Case study of Namibia and Zambia”. Chapter 6 4. Mabuku, M. P.,* Senzanje, A., Mudhara, M., Jewitt, G.P.W. & Mulwafu, W. 2018. A framework for measuring rural households’ flood disaster resilience in Mwandi District of Zambia and Zambezi Region of Namibia. This paper work is an analysis of data collected through survey and focus groups and observations. I designed the questionnaire, collected data and analysed the data. The paper will be submitted to the Journal of Global Change. iv ABSTRACT The Zambezi Basin is considered vulnerable to climate variability as evidenced by the recurrent floods. The increased occurrence and severity of floods in recent years in areas previously not flooded has inundated parts of Eastern Zambezi Region of Namibia and Mwandi District of Zambia. The magnitude and frequency of these floods, coupled with poor disaster preparedness and lack of effective adaptation strategies, is believed to have negative impacts on rural households. Therefore, a cross country case study was carried out in order to assess the impacts of floods on income, crop production and livestock ownership; to determine the level of flood disaster preparedness; to assess coping and adaptation strategies undertaken by the rural households, and to develop a Household Flood Disaster Resilience Framework (HFDRF). Furthermore, the factors influencing the choice of different adaptation strategies and preparedness level were determined. Data were collected through structured and semi- structured questionnaire survey, focus group discussions, literature reviews and observations. The results indicated that floods had statistically significant impacts on income, crop production and livestock ownership of flooded rural households in both Namibia and Zambia. Rural households depended on both short-term coping and long-term adaptation strategies in order to minimize the negative impacts of floods and flood disasters. Households coped with floods through charcoal production, sale of firewood, sale of grass and reeds, collection of wild food and receipt of food aid. Long-term adaptation strategies included planting trees, fish farming, and flood water harvesting, temporary relocation to higher ground, and changing planting dates, among others. A majority of the households were well prepared (52%) for flood hazards in Namibia, whilst a minority were well prepared (9%) in Zambia. Furthermore, flood preparedness was influenced by sense of community, risk perception, self-efficacy, responsibility efficacy, outcome expectancy, education level, marital status, access and size of land. The study concludes that a variety of factors influence level of flood preparedness and adaptation strategy choices. For policy purposes, this suggests that relevant stakeholders’ interventions should consider these factors in order to enhance the rural households’ adaptive capacity to flooding. Furthermore, results on the impacts of floods on rural households could help in targeting the most vulnerable households in v responding effectively to food disasters. This study informs decision makers and practitioners who aim to strengthen disaster risk reduction and management in the two countries and under similar environments, on the status quo of flood impacts, adaptation, and preparedness. The Household Flood Disaster Resilience Framework can be used as a tool for monitoring rural households’ flood resilience. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis would not be possible without the support of a number of people. First and foremost I want to thank God the almighty for the wisdom, strength and determination provided to be able to complete this PhD thesis. My sincere appreciation goes to my four supervisors; Dr A. Senzanje., Prof M.M. Mudhara., Prof. G.P.W Jewitt., and Prof. W.O. Mulwafu for their overwhelming support, guidance and patience throughout my PhD journey. I would have not made it without their consistence support and understanding. My sponsors; WaterNet under DANIDA funding, who made it possible for me to do this PhD through their financial support and exposure to a number of conferences and networking opportunities, and Namibia’s National Commission on Research, Science and Technology who sponsored partially the research
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