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Heineken Will Be Second on the Price EUR104.15 High/Low 118.8/93.76 Market Cap

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Heineken Will Be Second on the Price EUR104.15 High/Low 118.8/93.76 Market Cap INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Brewers 21st March 2017 Guide to Brewing M&A Brewers AB INBEV NEUTRAL FV EUR107 After AB InBev has absorbed SABMiller, it will have 27% of the global Bloomberg ABI BB Reuters ABI.BR beer market (in terms of volume) and Heineken will be second on the Price EUR104.15 High/Low 118.8/93.76 Market cap. EUR176,351m Enterprise Val EUR256,029m global rankings with a 10% share. In terms of net revenue, the figures PE (2016e) 26.9x EV/EBIT (2016e) 22.0x are 31% and 11% respectively. That gives plenty of room for the beer CARLSBERG NEUTRAL FV DKK645 market to consolidate further. In this note we highlight 30 potential Bloomberg CARLB DC Reuters CARCb.CO deals that could be finalised in the next five years. The total value of Price DKK628.5 High/Low 679/576 Market Cap. DKK95,629m Enterprise Val DKK141,220m these deals is USD200bn, concerning 30% of global net revenue in the PE (2016e) 19.8x EV/EBIT (2016e) 17.0x brewing industry. HEINEKEN BUY FV EUR83 Bloomberg HEIA NA Reuters HEIN.AS Obviously the two main protagonists will be AB InBev and Heineken. For Price EUR79.64 High/Low 84.44/67.97 Market Cap. EUR45,873m Enterprise Val EUR59,416m AB InBev, we have identified 10 potential targets (deal value of PE (2016e) 21.9x EV/EBIT (2016e) 17.2x USD120bn) that could enable the group to double its revenue and surpass MOLSON COORS NEUTRAL FV $112 the USD100bn mark by 2022. The targets include Carlsberg, Kirin, Castel, Bloomberg TAP US Reuters TAP.N Price USD98.64 High/Low 111.25/92.3 Polar, San Miguel, Sabeco, Zhujiang, Boon Rawd, Damm and Budvar. Market Cap. USD21,204m Enterprise Val USD15,149m Without any doubt the acquisition of Carlsberg would be the most difficult PE (2016e) 32.9x EV/EBIT (2016e) 45.7x to achieve in regulatory terms, but with AB InBev having only strong ROYAL UNIBREW NEUTRAL FV DKK306 market share in Belgium and Luxembourg, the European Commission will Bloomberg RBREW DC Reuters RBREW.CO Price DKK290.8 High/Low 334/248.1 find it difficult to argue for the European Court that a grand scale entry of Market Cap. DKK15,732m Enterprise Val DKK15,802m PE (2016e) 20.1x EV/EBIT (2016e) 16.2x AB InBev in Europe lowers price competition or choice. Also, we believe that the Carlsberg Foundation will be better off as an AB InBev shareholder than as a standalone Carlsberg shareholder. For AB InBev, 21/03/17 revenue synergies would mostly concern Asia (India and China) whereas in 109 Europe it would be able to implement its stronger cost control tool kit. 104 99 For Heineken, we have identified nine potential acquisition targets, which would enable it to more than double revenue and more than triple 94 operating profit. A total deal value of USD70bn might just be too much 89 to close these deals in the next five years. Targets include Molson Coors, Source Thomson Reuters Tsingtao, Henan Jinxing, Diageo Beer, Petropolis, Royal Unibrew, CCU STOXX EUROPE 600 FOOD & BEV E STOXX EUROPE 600 Beer, Cisneros, Florida Ice & Farm – Beer. However, there are some companies on AB InBev’s list for which it could also have a chance, especially Polar, San Miguel and Boon Rawd. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Nikolaas Faes Loïc Morvan 33(0) 6 11 12 44 44 Antoine Parison [email protected] Virginie Roumage Cedric Rossi r r Brewers Table of contents 1. Executive summary .......................................................................................................................... 3 2. Investment Case ............................................................................................................................... 8 Heineken (Buy, FV EUR83) ........................................................................................................................ 8 AB InBev (Neutral, FV EUR107) .............................................................................................................. 8 Carlsberg (Neutral, FV DKK645) .............................................................................................................. 9 Molson Coors (Neutral, FV USD112) ....................................................................................................... 9 Royal Unibrew (Neutral, FV DKK306) .................................................................................................. 10 3. Europe ............................................................................................................................................. 11 3.1. Carlsberg .................................................................................................................................................. 12 3.1.1. Why Carlsberg as a target? ...................................................................................................... 12 3.1.2. Who would like to own the business? .................................................................................. 12 3.1.3. What price? ................................................................................................................................ 13 3.2. Royal Unibrew ........................................................................................................................................ 15 3.2.1. Why Royal Unibrew as a target? Mature markets free cash flow ..................................... 15 3.2.2. Who would like to own the business? .................................................................................. 17 3.2.3. What price? ................................................................................................................................ 17 3.3. The German beer market...................................................................................................................... 18 3.3.1. The last remaining strongholds in Europe .......................................................................... 18 4. Africa ................................................................................................................................................ 20 4.1. Castel – the biggest M&A opportunity .............................................................................................. 21 4.1.1. Why Castel as a target? ............................................................................................................ 22 4.1.2. Who would like to own the business? .................................................................................. 23 4.1.3. What price? ................................................................................................................................ 24 4.2. Diageo’s beer business would add (maybe too) nicely to Heineken’s .......................................... 25 4.2.1. Why Diageo Beer as a target? ................................................................................................. 26 4.2.2. Who would like to own the business? .................................................................................. 27 4.2.3. What price? ................................................................................................................................ 28 5. Americas .......................................................................................................................................... 29 5.1. Molson Coors a prime target for Heineken? ..................................................................................... 29 5.1.1. Why Molson Coors as a target? Mature markets free cash flow ...................................... 30 5.1.2. Who would like to own the business? .................................................................................. 31 5.1.3. What price? ................................................................................................................................ 31 5.2. Who else in North America? ................................................................................................................ 32 5.3. Still a lot to happen in Latin America ................................................................................................. 33 6. The Asian markets ......................................................................................................................... 34 6.1. The Chinese brewers ............................................................................................................................. 34 6.2. What about the Japanese brewers? ...................................................................................................... 36 6.3. Numerous targets in Asia...................................................................................................................... 37 Price Chart and Rating History ......................................................................................................... 40 Bryan Garnier stock rating system .................................................................................................... 43 2 Brewers 1. Executive summary In December 2015 (i.e. after the SABMiller deal was agreed), AB InBev set up its “2020 Dream Incentive Plan”, which provides incentives for the 65 top managers to bring the company to turnover of USD100bn by 2022 at the latest. So far, it has been argued that consolidation opportunities in beer are limited and that because of the similarity between beer and soft drinks in producing, distribution and selling, only two external growth opportunities would enable AB InBev to reach the goal: The Coca-Cola Company post refranchising (USD30bn in net revenues in 2020e) and the beverages business of
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