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Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) Re-Initiating Coverage

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Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) Re-Initiating Coverage 26 June 2019 Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) Re-initiating coverage BUY (Unchanged) StockData Poised on monetizing synergy cycle Target price (Rp) Rp6,625 Impetus for entire traffic growth lies on toll road interconnection. Prior TP (Rp) n/a The underlying earnings feature are both non-cyclical and lucrative. Shareprice (Rp) Rp5,800 Upside/downside (%) +14.2 Securitization is a keystone of weathering expansion adversity. Sharesoutstanding (m) 7,258 We re-initiate a coverage on JSMR with BUY rating and TP of Rp6,625. Marketcap. (US$ m) 3,096 Toll interconnectivity drives future traffic growth. Jasa Marga (JSMR) is an Free float (%) 24.5 Indonesian leading toll road company that operates 1,342km road and holds 33 Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m) 3.1 concessions, whose period is the longest in Asia, spanning across provinces and islands. JSMR owns extensive toll road network which puts company in greater position to Price Performance capture the synergy on upcoming new subset of Trans Java toll roads, as our research 3M 6M 12M suggests toll road interconnectivity to be the main driver of traffic growth, with Absolute (%) 13.6 40.0 42.4 elevated Jakarta – Cikampek to bring an extended effect to invigorate the overall traffic Relative to JCI (%) 16.5 37.3 32.9 growth in FY20F by latest. We forecast a modest growth on nation-wide JSMR traffic by 6.5%/7.2% in FY19F/20F. 52whigh/low (Rp) 6,175 - 3,820 Open-system to boost earnings. Recently, JSMR introduced an opened-system on its 150 highly dense toll road section in Tangerang (April 2017), Jagorawi (September 2017), 140 JORR (September 2018), and Cikampek (May 2019).This system should positively 130 affect JSMR in three aspects. First, open-system de-bottlenecks traffic and thus results 120 Indonesia | Infrastructure 110 to higher traffic turnover. Second, it requires a one-time payment and thereby raising 100 operating efficiency due to lower gate operators. Third, it opens a room for biannual 90 tariff adjustment for several toll roadsthat sees an absence on this. Our analysis reveals 80 that the net effect of opened-system is positive despite a temporal traffic shrinkage. 18 18 19 18 19 19 18 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - This is due to inelastic demand profile across regions as implied by low mid-price Jul Oct Apr Oct Jun Jan Jun Feb Feb Mar Sep Aug Aug Nov Dec Dec May May elasticity scoring at 0.05, 0.40, and 0.47 for JSMR’s Jakarta, Java excl. Jakarta, and ex- JSMR-Rebase JCI Index-Rebase Java region, respectively. The underlying earnings are also non-cyclical and lucrative as Equity Equity | Major Shareholders suggested by JSMR’s stable EBITDA margin (60%-76%) in matured region (Jakarta); Government of Indonesia 70.0% this embodies a long-term prospect on JSMR’s newly-built assets. BPJS Ketenagakerjaan 3.3% Securitization benefit is pervasive across financial statements. Asset-based PT Taspen 2.2% securities (ABS) have several key benefits. First, it enables raising fresh fund by Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus securitizing new operating assets that exhibits demand merit, with a bonus of one-time 2019F 2020F gain. Second, some ABS allow better earnings management as accounting treatment requires earnings deconsolidation on the securitized asset. This benefit is particularly Latest EPS (Rp) 270 304 pronounced in the securitization of newly-operated asset to avoid consolidating Vs. Prior EPS (%) - - negative earnings and cash flows in early periods. In addition, JSMR guided to Vs. Consensus (%) 1.8 0.6 introduce step-up loan and hybrid zero-coupon bond in which our sensitivity analysis shows FY19F net profit should be 18%-27% higher than our base case and overall ICR Source: Bloomberg to hover higher at 1.9x – 2.1x (vs. base-case at 1.7x). Valuation. We initiate JSMR with BUY rating and our SOTP-derived TP of Rp6,625 implies that current price to reflect only 51% of JSMR’s new toll road. Our TP translates to a target EV/EBITDA of 15.1x (below 10-yr average EV/EBITDA of 20x). Also, EV/km of JSMR (at $2.7mn) comes slightly below the median of regional peers (at $3.1mn). Upside risk includes the deleveraging plan of JORR that adds 2.5% to our TP. Year To 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F Revenue (RpBn) 9,080 9,970 10,527 12,061 13,752 EBITDA (RpBn) 5,160 5,687 6,168 7,411 8,833 EBITDA Growth (%) 7.8 10.2 8.4 20.2 19.2 Net Profit (RpBn) 2,200 2,202 1,961 2,209 2,589 EPS (Rp) 303 303 270 304 357 EPS Growth (%) 16.5 0.1 (10.9) 12.6 17.2 Net Gearing (%) 164.1 153.3 191.8 190.6 193.0 Willy Goutama PER (x) 19.3 19.3 21.7 19.2 16.4 PT Indo Premier Sekuritas PBV (x) 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 +62 21 5793 1168 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 13.1 14.2 12.3 10.8 Source: JSMR, IndoPremier Share Price Closing as of : 24-June-2019 Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report JSMR Re-initiating coverage Fig. 1: Toll road interconnection to drive future traffic Fig. 2: Demand is less susceptible to tariff hike 1,800 30% 2.0 1.973 1,600 25% 1.8 1,400 20% 1.6 1,200 15% 1.4 1.2 1,000 10% 1.0 800 5% 0.8 600 0% 0.6 0.631 0.479 400 -5% 0.4 0.401 0.312 0.288 0.2 200 -10% 0.050 0.008 0.0 0.014 - -15% Jakarta Java Ex-Java 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F Low Mid High Jakarta Java excl. Jakarta Ex-Java Traffic Growth (% yoy) Source: JSMR, IndoPremier Source: JSMR, IndoPremier Fig. 3: JSMR pockets high market share and growth Fig. 4: Declining bond yield should drive share price upward 8,000 20.0 10% 7,000 18.0 JSMR IJ 16.0 6,000 META IJ 14.0 5% 5,000 12.0 4,000 10.0 CMNP IJ 3,000 8.0 0% 6.0 -15% 5% 25% 45% 65% 85% 2,000 4.0 1,000 2.0 Market Growth (%) Rate -5% - - -10% Relative Market Share (%) Stock Price - LHS (Rp) 10-yr Sovereign Bond Yield - RHS (%) Source: CMNP,JSMR, META, IndoPremier Source: Bloomberg, IndoPremier Fig. 5: Forward EV/EBITDA - TP perches below 10-yr average Fig. 6: EV/km – JSMR current valuation is below the median 12.0 45 10.7 9.9 40 10.0 35 8.0 30 6.0 25 3.5 4.0 3.1 2.7 2.6 20 2.0 15 0.4 0.2 - 10 NusantaraTrans Kota WCE Noida Toll Jasa Citra IL&FS MEP Infra 5 Infra Holdings Marga Marga Transport Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Series1 Series2 Source: Bloomberg, IndoPremier Source: Bloomberg, Companies’ Presentation, IndoPremier Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report 2 JSMR Re-initiating coverage Macroeconomics Overview Investment-led fiscal expansion are well captured by SOE Toll Road Operators Indonesian economy has advanced relatively well over the past five year (Fig. 1; RHS) post Jokowi administration assumed the office. Indonesian economic is undergoing a structural shift in its composition where investment comprises a higher proportion of Indonesian GDP to 32% in FY18 (vs. FY08: 28%). The real economic metric, as suggested by a steady increase in real investment-to-GDP (Fig. 2), also indicates that investment is taking place. We believe this is a good indication as higher investment plausibly leads to widespread infrastructure development that will eventually bring a significant future multiplier toward economic growth despite having to bear the cost of short-term decelerated economic growth. Fig. 1: Indonesian Economic Structure Fig. 2: Real Investment-to-GDP steadily increases 100% 6.5% 12,000 35% 80% 28% 31% 31% 31% 33% 32% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 6.0% 10,000 30% 25% 60% 5.5% 8,000 20% 40% 5.0% 6,000 61% 59% 56% 55% 56% 57% 57% 57% 58% 57% 57% 15% 20% 4.5% 4,000 10% 0% 4.0% 2,000 5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 - 0% Consumption Government Spending 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Investment Net Export and Stats. Discrepancy Real GDP (2010=100, Rptn) - LHS Real Investment (2010=100, Rptn) - LHS Growth (% yoy) - RHS Real Investment-to-GDP - RHS Source: CEIC, IndoPremier Source: CEIC, IndoPremier We then observe total infrastructure budget over time in which a large-scale budget expansion took place at the inception of Jokowi’s administration in FY15. This year alone, the government had earmarked Rp415tn worth of infrastructure budget (+1.2% yoyvs. FY18: +2.2% yoy) whose growth seems to be relatively subdued; though it is reasonable given high-base figure from preceding year. The pertaining budget is pretty concentrated on two ministries, Ministry of Public Work and Transport, which altogether account for a third of total infrastructure budget (Fig. 4). These two ministries are instrumental to support government’s ambitious infrastructure plans. Fig. 3: Infrastructure Budget (Rptn) and Its Share (% GDP) Fig.
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