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Morning Highlight Equity Research Thursday, June 11, 2015 MORNING HIGHLIGHT Key Index FROM RESEARCH Chg Ytd Vol Close Waskita Karya: On higher ground (%) (%) (US$ m) (WSKT IJ. Rp 1,670. BUY. TP Rp 2,150) Asean - 5 Post-rights issue, Waskita will be the largest state contractor, thus the Indonesia 4,934 0.7 (5.6) 319 company will have no problems in financing either its future investments or Thailand 1,504 0.8 0.4 951 working capital, ensuring, we believe, a brighter future for the company Philippines 7,384 0.8 2.1 128 and a faster pace of growth. Going forward, Waskita’s ventures into toll Malaysia 1,736 0.4 (1.5) 393 road investments should boost its order book and lead to higher Singapore 3,326 0.9 (1.2) 852 profitability as well. All in all, our post-rights valuation suggests TP of Regional Rp2,150. Waskita remains as one of our Top Picks in our construction China 5,106 (0.1) 57.9 - sector universe. BUY. Hong Kong 26,688 (1.1) 13.1 18,863 Japan 20,046 (0.2) 14.9 15,974 Korea Previous Reports: 2,063 0.5 7.7 5,042 Taiwan 9,299 1.2 (0.1) 3,155 . Market outlook: Finding value (OVERWEIGHT) - Snapshot20150610 India 26,841 1.4 (2.4) 325 . Weekly Report: Not out of the woods yet - Snapshot20150609 NASDAQ 5,077 1.3 7.2 76,008 . Mitra Adi Perkasa: Still in Style- Snapshot20150608 Dow Jones 18,000 1.3 1.0 7,940 . Indosat: Improving Outlook- Snapshot20150605 Currency and Interest Rate . ANTAM: Making Progress on the P3FP projects- Snapshot20150605 w-w m-m ytd Rate . Banking Sector - Tax Issue: Limited Impact- Snapshot20150605 (%) (%) (%) Rupiah (Rp/1US$) 13,315 (0.6) (1.2) (7.5) MARKET NEWS SBI rate (%) 6.67 (0.3) (0.3) (0.6) 10y Gov Indo bond 8.66 0.2 0.4 0.9 *Analysts’ comment inside . Ministries Need More Funds in 2016 for Infra Projects (TJP) Hard Commodities d-d m-m ytd . Strengthening Capital: BTN Aims Rp9 Trillion Rights Issue (BI) Unit Price (%) (%) (%) . 4W: Sluggish Sales, Manufacturers Reduce Stock (BI) . Ministry of Industry Pushing For 100% Local Content Auto (ID) Coal US$/ton 57 n/a (4.9) (20.5) Gold US$/toz . Freeport to get early extension (TJP) 1,186 0.0 0.2 0.1 Nickel US$/mt.ton . ISAT Plans to Issue Rp2tn Bonds (ID) 13,564 0.8 (4.9) (10.0) Tin US$/mt.ton . PTBA Officially Opens New Port (ID) 15,348 0.8 (3.3) (21.0) . Waskita Aims for More Toll Road Projects to Meet Target (TJP) Soft Commodities d-d m-m ytd Unit Price (%) (%) (%) IDX ANNOUNCEMENT Cocoa US$/mt.ton 3,158 (0.0) 5.4 6.3 Cash Announcement Corn US$/mt.ton 133 (2.6) (2.5) (7.2) Code Ex-Date Date Payable Amount (Rp) Crude Oil US$/barrel 66 (0.3) 0.9 14.3 INDF 19-May-15 11-June-15 220 Palm oil MYR/mt.ton INTP 22-May-15 17-June-15 1350 2,290 (0.1) 6.6 (0.3) Rubber USd/kg KLBF 26-May-15 17-June-15 19 161 1.3 5.6 5.7 Pulp US$/tonne Source: KSEI 851 n/a (0.5) (8.7) Coffee US$/60kgbag 92 (0.6) 4.5 9.7 Sugar US$/MT 350 0.0 (8.7) (10.7) Wheat US$/mt.ton 189 0.3 7.1 (13.8) Source: Bloomberg Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research Equity Research Thursday, June 11, 2015 PT Danareksa Sekuritas Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709 Equity Research Team Agriculture Helmy Kristanto [email protected] (62-21) 2955 824 Automotive Helmy Kristanto [email protected] (62-21) 2955 824 Auto Component Joko Sogie [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Banking Eka Savitri [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3509 Cement Helmy Kristanto [email protected] (62-21) 2955 824 Coal Stefanus Darmagiri [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530 Construction Joko Sogie [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Consumer Jennifer Frederika Yapply [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Heavy Equipment Stefanus Darmagiri [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530 Media Lucky Ariesandi, CFA [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520 Metal Mining Stefanus Darmagiri [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530 Pharmaceutical Armando Marulitua [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3503 Property Anindya Saraswati [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3506 Retail Anindya Saraswati [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3506 Strategy Helmy Kristanto [email protected] (62-21) 2955 824 Telecommunication Lucky Ariesandi, CFA [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520 Transportation Joko Sogie [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Utilities Lucky Ariesandi, CFA [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520 Research Associate Puti Adani [email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Sales team Ermawati A. Erman [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151 Asfarita Andalusia [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3134 Novrita E. Putrianti [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128 Ehrliech Suhartono [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132 Yunita L. Nababan [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145 Bram Taarea [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3127 Martin Joshua [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3126 Laksmita Armandani [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125 Muhammad Hardiansyah [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109 Tuty Sutopo [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121 Upik Yuzarni [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137 Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research Thursday, 11 June 2015 CONSTRUCTION SECTOR/COMPANY UPDATE BUY Waskita Karya Target Price, IDR 2,150 Upside 28.7% On higher ground WSKT IJ/WSKT.JK Post-rights issue, Waskita will be the largest state contractor, thus the company will Last Price, IDR 1,670 have no problems in financing either its future investments or working capital, No. of shares, mn (post-rights) 13,567 ensuring, we believe, a brighter future for the company and a faster pace of growth. Going forward, Waskita’s ventures into toll road investments should boost its order Market Cap, IDR bn 22,657 book and lead to higher profitability as well. All in all, our post-rights valuation (US$ mn) 1,702 suggests TP of Rp2,150. Waskita remains as one of our Top Picks in our construction 3M T/O, US$mn 1.6 sector universe. BUY. Last Recommendation The company that delivers 22-May-2015 BUY IDR 2,100 Backed by its growing order book and sound reputation, Waskita growth story has continued to 04-May-2015 BUY IDR 2,100 unfold and earnings quality has improved. Post-IPO, Waskita successfully restructured its debts 05-Mar-2015 BUY IDR 2,100 and, at the same time, the IPO proceeds gave the company more flexibility in its balance sheet to WSKT relative to JCI Index work on larger projects. Subsequently, Waskita’s total carry-over projects in 2015 stood at Rp20.3tn, or 2.0x its FY14 total revenues – meaning that projects are sufficient to fuel growth. All in all, the IDR WSKT (LHS) Relative to JCI Index (RHS) % 2,000 155 new government’s infrastructure acceleration program should benefit Waskita given that government-related projects remain very important to the company. 115 1,500 Waskita has entered a new era 75 After improving its profitability in recent years, Waskita is also eyeing further improvements by 1,000 35 venturing into toll road investments. To minimize the default risk, Waskita has also taken majority 500 -5 ownership in some sections in order to manage the progress and directly obtain the construction value with higher profitability as well. At present, Waskita has a total of four ongoing toll road 7/9/14 8/6/14 9/3/14 6/11/14 10/1/14 1/21/15 2/18/15 3/18/15 4/15/15 5/13/15 6/10/15 10/29/14 11/26/14 12/24/14 projects in the pipeline, namely: 1) Pejagan-Pemalang, 2) Bekasi-Cawang-Kp. Melayu, 3) Medan- Market Recommendation Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi, and 4) Depok-Antasari. Most of the projects have already reached critical scale, meaning that the risk of delay is minimal. Aside from these projects, Waskita is also BUY 13 eyeing several potential toll road projects which may transpire in the future. HOLD 2 The government’s capital injection to accelerate growth As one of the state-contractors, Waskita is an agent of development, especially in regard to toll SELL 4 road development in Indonesia. The government’s capital injection of Rp3.5tn will translate into Consensus a potential rights issue of up to Rp5.3tn given that the government’s stake in Waskita will be Our Cons % Diff undiluted. As a result, Waskita’s equity will increase significantly to Rp8.8tn by EOY15F – making Target price, IDR 2,150 1,908 12.7 the company the largest among the state-contractors. EPS 2015F, IDR 56.2 63.8 -11.9 Post-rights valuation suggests TP of Rp2,150 PE 2015F, x 29.7 26.2 13.4 We forecast Waskita’s net profits to accelerate by 34% CAGR in FY14-17F on the back of a combination of a larger order book size and margins improvement from the contribution coming from higher margin toll road projects.
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