At the Vanguard: European Contributions to NATO's Future
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C O R P O R A T I O N ANIKA BINNENDIJK, GENE GERMANOVICH, BRUCE MCCLINTOCK, SARAH HEINTZ At the Vanguard European Contributions to NATO’s Future Combat Airpower For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA311-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0586-9 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Courtesy photo/USAFE-AFAFRICA. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Combat airpower constitutes an important line of effort in bolster- ing NATO’s deterrence and defense in a range of potential scenarios against a near-peer competitor. In this report we assess the evolving capability and readiness of European air forces to contribute to a high-intensity theater conflict and identify specific issues that allied forces could address to position themselves as central contributors to NATO’s deterrent posture at the vanguard of any foreseeable combat air campaign. Drawing from interviews, an expert round- table, and relevant literature, we conclude that trend lines lead in the right direction. Acquisitions of new combat aircraft—if accom- panied by investment such as enhanced radars, advanced and long- range munitions, and secure communications links—will enhance deterrence and defense. Continued attention to increasingly sophis- ticated training and exercises will also be needed to maximize the value of fifth-generation aircraft, of which European nations will possess several hundred by the mid-2020s. And with additional bud- getary and policy attention to increasing readiness, European allies have the opportunity to significantly enhance combat airpower over the coming decade. The research reported here was completed in May 2020 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. Human Subject Protections (HSP) protocols were used in this study in accor- dance with the appropriate statutes and Department of Defense (DoD) regulations governing HSP. Additionally, the views of the sources rendered anonymous by HSP are solely their own, and do not represent iii iv European Contributions to NATO’s Future Combat Airpower the official policy or position of DoD, the U.S. Government or any other official agency. This research was sponsored by the Russia Strategic Initiative at U.S. European Command in Stuttgart, Germany, and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/isdp or contact the center director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables and Boxes ................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................ xxiii Abbreviations ................................................................... xxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Research Question and Approach ................................................ 3 Limitations and Assumptions..................................................... 8 Report Organization ............................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO NATO Combat Air: Operations, Strategy, and Ambition ...............11 European Contributions to Combat Air Operations .........................11 Reorienting to a New Security Environment ................................. 24 National Levels of Ambition and Areas of Emphasis .........................29 Conclusion .........................................................................39 CHAPTER THREE Russian Perceptions of NATO Airpower ....................................41 The Besieged Fortress Mentality: Historical Influences on Russian Geopolitical Thinking ...................................................... 42 v vi European Contributions to NATO’s Future Combat Airpower Impressions of NATO’s Combat Air Tactics and Capabilities, 1991–Present ..................................................................45 Correlation of Forces and Means (COFM) and Air Defense Analysis .....57 Conclusion .........................................................................61 CHAPTER FOUR Current and Emerging Force Structure and Technology ................63 Force Structure and Technology (2020–2030) ............................... 64 Implications of Evolving Force Structure and Technology ..................82 Conclusion ........................................................................ 87 CHAPTER FIVE Available Platforms and Munitions ..........................................89 Maintaining Existing Fleets .................................................... 90 Maintaining Future Fifth-Generation Fleets ................................ 100 Replenishing and Maintaining Munitions Stockpiles ...................... 108 Conclusion ....................................................................... 116 CHAPTER SIX Preparing the Force for Combat Missions ................................ 119 Maintaining an Adequate Pilot Pool .......................................... 120 Training to Develop and Maintain Combat Skills.......................... 123 Exercising Combat Scenarios for Interoperability and Integration ....... 138 Conclusion ....................................................................... 148 CHAPTER SEVEN Conclusion ...................................................................... 153 Findings .......................................................................... 154 Recommendations .............................................................. 158 Implications and Topics for Additional Research and Analysis ........... 162 References ....................................................................... 165 Figures S.1. Projected Fourth-Fifth Generation Mix of Aircraft Among European Allies ......................................................xv 1.1. Factors Reviewed to Assess Combat Air Capabilities ............ 6 1.2. European Nations Reviewed ........................................ 7 2.1. Percentage of Sorties Flown by Allies and Partners in Select Conflicts ......................................................12 2.2. Groups of Allies Considered ........................................29 2.3. Select European Defense Budgets in 2019 U.S. Dollars ........33 3.1. Comparison of COFM Calculations for Combat Aviation Platforms ...................................................59 4.1. Projected Quantity of Fourth-Generation Aircraft Among European Allies ......................................................70 4.2. Projected F-35 Quantities Among European Allies by Variant .............................................................74 4.3. Projected Fourth-Fifth Generation Mix of Aircraft Among European Allies ......................................................83 4.4. Notional F-35 Combat ISR Concept of Operations .............85 5.1. European Military Operations and Maintenance Budgets in 2019 ............................................................... 99 5.2. Global Asset Management System for the F-35 ................ 103 vii Tables and Boxes Tables 2.1. Combat Sorties of Select European Air Forces During Allied Force ...........................................................14 2.2. Select European Munitions Released During Operations Odyssey Dawn and Unified Protector ........................... 20 2.3. Allied Combat Aircraft in Kosovo and Libya ................... 23 2.4. Levels of Ambition for European Participating Air Forces Transitioning to the F-35 .......................................... 40 3.1. Comparison of Key NATO and Russian Air Operations Terms ................................................... 42 4.1.