U.S Policy and the Collapse of the Soviet Union Hanne Amundsen Master Thesis Department of Literature, Area Studies and European Languages, Faculty of Humanities UNIVERSITY OF OSLO FALL 2017 II III Copyright © Hanne Amundsen 2017 U.S. Policy and the Collapse of the Soviet Union. Hanne Amundsen http://www.duo.uio.no/ Print: Reprosentralen, University of Oslo IV Abstract This thesis examines whether the United States played a significant role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is focused around three factors which presumably may have played a role in the demise of the USSR. The first factor concerns the unintended consequences of the Helsinki accords. The Helsinki accords were signed in 1975 by thirty-five countries, including the Soviet Union and the United States. The final basket of the agreement, which would become known as the Final Act, called for the signatory countries to improve and respect basic human rights principles. When the USSR did not adhere to these principles, it led to a continuous pressure from the U.S. to improve human rights conditions. I examine whether this pressure had any effect on the Soviet leadership’s choice of policies, especially in regard to separatism in the republics. The second factor concerns the announcement of Ronald Reagan to develop the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), a space-based shield able to intercept incoming missiles. This thesis examines whether the Soviet leadership began to increase their nuclear capacity as a response to SDI, further undermining their economy leading to its collapse. The third, and final factor focuses on the Soviet defense burden, and whether the arms race with the United States during the Cold War played a role in the Soviet collapse by severely straining the Soviet economy. The method used to approach these factors have been to consult memoirs, autobiographies and diaries of central Soviet politicians and people working in the military-industrial complex to provide a Soviet point-of-view of the relevant questions I have asked. Additionally, I have made use of available online archive material. By consulting these types of sources, I have been able to get an insight into how the Soviet leadership approached these issues at top-level meetings with the United States. Upon examining these sources, it has become clear that the United States’ role in the collapse of the Soviet Union was at most minimal. I have argued that the Soviet economy collapsed from its own intrinsic causes, and that SDI did not lead to increases in Soviet military spending. I have further argued that the minimal role the U.S. played in the Soviet collapse can be seen through its role of pushing forward liberal reforms in the USSR by constantly reminding the Soviet leadership of the principles they agreed to in Helsinki in 1975. V VI VII Acknowledgments The idea behind this thesis came during a study-abroad semester in St.Petersburg in the spring of 2016. I asked one of my professors, Dmitriy Goncharov, about ideas for a research paper which I later could use as a springboard for my master thesis. He suggested “international factors in the collapse of the Soviet Union”, which subsequently led me to writing this thesis. I would therefore first and foremost like to thank professor Dmitriy Goncharov at Higher School of Economics in St.Petersburg for the exiting idea behind this thesis. I further wish to thank the following: My supervisor, Pål Kolstø, for your guidance, support and constructive inputs during the entire process. I would not have been able to finish this thesis without your help. Sing In Ng, for reading the entire thesis and for helping me out when I have been knocking my head against the wall. Robert Bergh, Arne-Kristian Amundsen, Euan Wallace Crowe and Line Lund Norbakk for taking the time out to proofread excerpts from the thesis. Last, but not least, my better half, Henrik Grimshei. Thank you for your endless love and support and for sticking out with me during the entire process. You truly are my hero. VIII Transliteration Russian proper names have been transliterated to Latin letters by using the BGN/PCGN 1947 system1: А а: a Б б: b В в: v Г г: g Д д: d Е е: e or ye Ё ё: ë or yë Ж ж: zh З з: z И и: i Й й: y К к: k Л л: l М м: m Н н: n О о: o 1 U.S. Board on Geographic Names. Foreign Names Committee Staff, “Romanization Systems and Roman- Script Spelling Conventions”, 93-94. IX П п: p Р р: r С с: s Т т: t У у: u Ф ф: f Х х: kh Ц ц: ts Ч ч: ch Ш ш: sh Щ щ: shch Ъ ъ: " Ы ы: y Ь ь: ´ Э э: e Ю ю: yu Я я: ya I have followed this system with one exception. In the case of Mikhail Gorbachev, I have transliterated his last name in accordance with the common spelling, Gorbachev, not Gorbachëv. X XI Table of contents List of figures…………………………………………………………………………...xiii 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Research Questions and Thesis Outline ...................................................................... 2 1.2 U.S. Policy and the Demise of the Soviet Union: The Debate .................................... 4 1.2.1 The role of human rights ...................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 The role of the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ............................................... 6 1.2.3 The role of the defense burden ............................................................................. 8 1.2.4 Other theories on U.S. role in the Soviet collapse ............................................... 9 1.3 Method and Sources .................................................................................................. 10 2 The Helsinki Accords of 1975 ......................................................................................... 15 2.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 15 2.2 Unintended Consequences ......................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 Human rights in Soviet-U.S. relations pre-Gorbachev ...................................... 18 2.2.2 Enter Gorbachev: Human rights in Soviet-U.S. relations .................................. 22 2.2.3 The Baltic case in Soviet-U.S. relations ............................................................. 27 2.3 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 33 3 The Soviet Defense Burden and the Strategic Defense Initiative (“Star Wars”) ............. 37 3.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 37 3.2 The Burden of Defense Becomes Evident ................................................................. 39 3.3 A New Dilemma Arises: The Strategic Defense Initiative........................................ 44 3.3.1 Ronald Reagan and the Strategic Defense Initiative .......................................... 45 3.3.2 Soviet reactions 1983-1985 ................................................................................ 49 3.3.3 Soviet reactions under Gorbachev ...................................................................... 53 3.4 Did U.S. Military Buildup in the 1980s Increase the Soviet Military Budget? ......... 61 3.4.1 The priority for defense changes ........................................................................ 65 3.4.2 Another strain on the defense burden? The Soviet answer to “Star Wars” ........ 68 3.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 71 4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 76 Literature .................................................................................................................................. 83 XII List of figures Figure 1………………………………………………………………………………………40 Figure 2………………………………………………………………………………………63 Figure 3………………………………………………………………………………………63 XIII XIV 1 Introduction In the beginning of the 1990s, the world stood as witnesses as the previously great superpower, the Soviet Union, disintegrated and eventually collapsed. The Soviet Union no longer existed, but was split up into fifteen independent successor states across the Eurasian map. Despite these enormous changes, which have been claimed to be the final ending of the Cold War, the Soviet Union disintegrated peacefully. Explanations of these events have been of central concern to social scientists and historians, and the reforms and domestic policy of Mikhail Gorbachev have been the most emphasized factors in this research. However, because of the competitive environment during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, some scholars have raised the question whether the Soviet collapse can be attributed to Western policies. One of these was Alexander Dallin. A year after the Soviet collapse he presented in his article “Causes of the Collapse of the USSR2” three hypotheses for possible Western influences on the demise of the Soviet Union: In regard to explicit policy by Western powers, it is impossible to find direct evidence of its destabilizing impact on Soviet society or polity, though at least three factors can be assumed to have played some role: (1) the unintended consequences of the inclusion of “Basket 3” (on human rights) in the Helsinki accords