Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL
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Philippines Real Estate 26 October 2017 Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL PM) Vista Land & Lifescapes Target price: PHP7.10 Share price (26 Oct): PHP5.85 | Up/downside: +21.4% Initiation: a quality home and mall builder Initiating with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month TP of PHP7.10 Micaela Abaquita +63 2 7373021 End-user and provincial focus to benefit from infra and rural growth [email protected] Improving earnings visibility with retail-oriented leasing expansion Investment case: We initiate coverage of Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL) Share price performance with a Buy (1) rating and 12-month TP of PHP7.10, offering 21% upside (PHP) (%) potential. In our view, the stock is currently undervalued and should trade at 6.5 115 a discount closer to its past-5-year average on the back of: 1) accelerated 6.0 109 pre-sales growth as its active and strategic pursuit of the overseas Filipino 5.6 103 5.1 96 worker (OFW) and local end-user markets bears fruit, and 2) improved 4.6 90 earnings visibility as it grows its predominantly retail recurring income base, Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 following its acquisition of Starmalls Inc in 2015. Vista Land (LHS) Relative to PCOMP Index (RHS) VLL is an end-user-oriented property developer with strong brand 12-month range 4.65-6.40 recognition in the low-cost and affordable horizontal space, via its Camella Market cap (USDbn) 1.45 brand. Consistent with its end-user thrust, it also has the largest provincial 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 0.49 Shares outstanding (m) 12,839 residential revenue exposure among property names under our coverage. Major shareholder Fine Properties Inc. (51.9%) In 1H17, pre-sales growth accelerated to 12% YoY, from 2% YoY in 2016, driven by a recovery in the demand from OFWs and improved confidence Financial summary (PHP) among locals who were encouraged by the increased visibility of Year to 31 Dec 17E 18E 19E infrastructure developments. As a result, the company hiked its launch Revenue (m) 35,984 41,177 46,554 guidance for 2017 from an initial PHP30bn to as high as PHP50bn. We Operating profit (m) 13,035 15,228 17,586 Net profit (m) 8,918 10,153 11,399 forecast VLL’s residential revenue to rise by a CAGR of 12.4% from 2016- Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.695 0.791 0.888 19 and account for 81% of real-estate revenue by 2019. EPS change (%) 2.7 13.8 12.3 Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 0.1 0.6 (0.8) PER (x) 8.4 7.4 6.6 VLL is also aggressively expanding its malls business. While older Dividend yield (%) 2.2 2.4 2.8 Starmalls (now under VLL) visibly cater to the mass market, its newer malls DPS 0.126 0.142 0.162 have been upgraded and re-branded to cater to the broader middle market PBR (x) 0.4 0.4 0.3 as well – a development we believe remains underappreciated given the EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 9.9 9.1 ROE (%) 11.4 11.8 12.0 widespread impression that Starmalls cater only to the low-income market. Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts Our “on-the-ground” research gives us conviction that VLL can hit 1.3m sq m of retail GFA by 2018, from 882k sq m in 2016. We expect rental revenue to rise by a 2016-19E CAGR of 25%, and reach 19% of revenue by 2019. Catalysts: We see higher-than-expected remittances growth and the government’s initiatives to accelerate infrastructure and rural development as key catalysts given VLL’s exposure to the OFW and provincial markets. Valuation: Our NAV-based 12-month TP of PHP7.10 for VLL assumes: 1) raw landbank valued at market, 2) residential business valued at NPV of inventory, 3) an 11% cap rate on rental EBITDA, and 4) a 55% NAV discount as we see corporate governance issues related to its Starmalls acquisition offsetting any narrowing of the discount from improved earnings visibility. Risks: Given its exposure to the residential segment and the OFW market, we see a considerable hike in interest rates and a significant slowdown in remittances growth as the key downside risks to our call. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 22 Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL PM): 26 October 2017 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook VLL: net income We forecast VLL’s net income attributable to equity holders 12 19 20 of the parent to rise by a 2016-19E CAGR of 13%, as we 18 10 14 project revenue to rise by a 14.5% CAGR over the same 13 14 16 12 12 14 period. 8 12 6 10 We see revenue being driven by a 12% 3-year CAGR in 8 4 the residential segment as pre-sales grow steadily on the 6 4 back of healthy end-user demand and continued provincial 2 expansion. Meanwhile, we expect rental revenue to rise by 6.2 7.0 7.9 8.9 10.2 11.4 2 0 0 a faster 25% 3-year CAGR as VLL expands its leasing 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E space from 951k sq m of GFA as of 1H17 to 1.3m sq m of Net income (PHPbn) YoY growth (%) GFA by 2018E. By 2019E, we expect rental revenue to Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts account for 19% of revenue (ex. miscellaneous revenue) Note: Net income attributable to equity holders of the parent from 15% as of 2016. Valuation VLL: historical PER Our PHP7.10 NAV-based target price is based on: 1) its 16 efficient landbank valued at market prices, 2) its residential 14 12 business valued at NPV of inventory, and 3) an 11% cap 10 rate on rental EBITDA. We applied a 55% discount to NAV 8 6 – wider than its 50% past-5-year average discount – as we 4 see recent corporate governance issues related to its 2 Starmalls acquisition weighing on the stock and offsetting 0 any narrowing of the discount by improved earnings 6/26/2014 9/26/2016 9/26/2013 3/26/2014 9/26/2014 3/26/2015 6/26/2015 9/26/2015 3/26/2016 6/26/2016 3/26/2017 6/26/2017 9/26/2017 visibility. 6/26/2013 12/26/2013 12/26/2014 12/26/2015 12/26/2016 -2SD -1SD AVERAGE At our TP, VLL would trade at a 1-year forward PER of +2SD +1SD PE 9.5x, largely in line with its past 5-year average PER of 9x. Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Earnings revisions VLL: consensus EPS forecasts The consensus forecasts have been steady recently. The 10 1.2 steep downward revision in 2016 was due to the Starmalls 8 1 acquisition, the structure and valuation of which resulted in 0.8 6 30% EPS dilution. 0.6 4 0.4 Going forward, we expect revisions to be skewed upwards 2 0.2 on the back of the company’s accelerating pre-sales 0 0 growth and its upgraded 2017 launch guidance from PHP30bn to PHP50bn. 7-Apr-15 7-Oct-15 7-Apr-16 7-Oct-16 7-Apr-17 7-Oct-17 7-Jun-17 7-Jun-15 7-Jun-16 7-Feb-16 7-Feb-17 7-Aug-15 7-Dec-16 7-Dec-15 7-Aug-16 7-Aug-17 Price BEst Standard EPS, Adj+ 2018 A BEst Standard EPS, Adj+ 2017* A Source: Bloomberg 2 Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL PM): 26 October 2017 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Pre-sales, PHP bn n.a. n.a. 51.7 56.7 57.8 69.3 80.5 85.0 Residential launches, PHP bn n.a. n.a. 26.6 40.4 26.2 49.8 49.8 49.8 Additional retail GLA, '000 sqm n.a. n.a. 31.1 27.8 201.1 132.0 132.0 0.0 Additional office GLA, '000 sqm n.a. n.a. 0.0 9.9 49.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Profit and loss (PHPm) Year to 31 Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E Residential n.a. n.a. 23,081 25,212 25,668 29,338 32,962 36,496 Rental n.a. n.a. 1,527 2,246 4,375 5,536 6,946 8,622 Other Revenue n.a. n.a. 900 1,231 953 1,109 1,269 1,435 Total Revenue n.a. n.a. 25,508 28,690 30,996 35,984 41,177 46,554 Other income n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 COGS n.a. n.a. (11,032) (12,254) (12,321) (14,132) (15,860) (17,561) SG&A n.a. n.a. (4,371) (4,724) (4,541) (5,255) (5,998) (6,768) Other op.expenses n.a. n.a. (2,084) (2,168) (3,053) (3,561) (4,091) (4,638) Operating profit n.a. n.a. 8,021 9,543 11,080 13,035 15,228 17,586 Net-interest inc./(exp.) n.a. n.a. (964) (1,348) (1,372) (2,028) (2,697) (3,516) Assoc/forex/extraord./others n.a. n.a. (29) (7) (26) 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit n.a. n.a. 7,028 8,188 9,683 11,007 12,531 14,070 Tax n.a.