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Philippines Property Philippines Real Estate 25 June 2018 Philippines Property Initiation: sustained momentum in the residential segment boosting rental expansion We see sustained confidence among property buyers amid increased visibility on infrastructure development and robust economic growth We think concerns over office-space demand relating to a BPO Micaela Abaquita slowdown and automation are overdone. (63) 2 7373021 [email protected] We initiate with a Positive call; top picks are Ayala Land and Vista Land, given their strong brand equity and track records Investment thesis: We initiate on the Philippines Property sector with a Key stock calls Positive rating amid an improved residential outlook, aggressive rental New Prev. expansion, and a healthy leasing environment, which we see driving an Ayala Land (ALI PM) aggregate core earnings CAGR across our coverage of 13.2% for 2017- Rating Buy Outperform 20E. Our top sector picks are Ayala Land and Vista Land as we think their Target 50.00 49.00 strong brand equity and proven track records will help to sustain their Upside p 33.2% attractive long-term prospects. Vista Land & Lifescapes (VLL PM) Rating Buy Buy We believe that optimism in the residential property market will persist Target 8.30 8.00 through 2018, as we see the drivers that allowed pre-sales to exceed Upside p 27.9% expectations in 2017 remaining intact, including: 1) a resurgence in Megaworld (MEG PM) confidence among locals amid the government’s commitment to accelerate Rating Buy Buy infra development and improve the business climate, 2) the development of Target 5.50 5.30 Upside p 23.6% new economic centres beyond Makati and Bonifacio Global City (BGC), Filinvest Land (FLI PM) leading to new employment opportunities and fresh residential demand, Rating Buy Buy and 3) a strong expat market, including demand from Chinese nationals. Target 2.20 2.15 Upside p 41.9% Meanwhile, developers continue to pursue their aggressive leasing SM Prime (SMPH PM) expansion plans. We see office-space demand being supported by healthy Rating Hold Underperform Business Processing and Outsourcing (BPO) industry growth, especially Target 34.00 34.00 from the expansion of existing locators, sustained momentum of Philippine Upside p 2.3% offshore gaming companies (POGOs) for at least the next 12 months, and Source: Daiwa forecasts increased entrepreneurial activity as the Philippine economy expands. We believe that concerns over the impact of Artificial Intelligence on office- space demand are overdone. We expect that higher-value jobs created by the adoption of new technologies will require office space larger than that of low-value roles and also exceed the job losses resulting from automation. We raise our 2018-19E EPS forecast for ALI by 7-8% on the back of better- than-expected pre-sales over the past 5 quarters. We also lift our 2019-20E EPS forecasts for FLI by 0.4-1.2% as we update its office pipeline. Catalysts: Accelerated infrastructure development, regulations supportive of BPOs and POGOs, and industry liberalisation creating office demand. Valuation: We roll-over our valuations to average 2018-19E NAV per share and re-affirm our Buy (1) ratings on Vista Land, Megaworld and Filinvest Land. We also upgrade our ratings on Ayala Land to Buy (1) from Outperform (2) and SM Prime to Hold (3) from Underperform (4) following the recent market sell-off. Most of our covered stocks are trading at discounts considerably wider than their historical averages despite better- than-expected pre-sales and growing recurring income contribution. Risks: A sharp increase in interest rates, delays in project construction, restrictive regulations on BPOs and POGOs, and slowdown in remittances. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 54 Philippines Property: 25 June 2018 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook Philippines Property: 2017-20E core net income CAGR (%) We forecast for core aggregate net earnings of the (% ) Philippines property companies under our coverage to 25 21.0 expand at a 2017-20E CAGR of 13.2%, driven by 12.0% 18.0 20 17.4 16.9 residential revenue and 14.1% rental revenue CAGRs over 15.0 13.9 14.0 13.7 the same period. We see healthy property demand 15 13.613.1 10.7 sustained by continued confidence among local buyers 9.6 10 amid rising incomes and increasing visibility of infrastructure development. Meanwhile, we see rental 5 revenue growth, aided by developers’ continued expansion 0 of mall and office space, especially as they build new Ayala Land Filinvest Land Megaworld SM Prime Vista Land Aggregate mixed-use communities in new growth areas within and 2018 2017-20E outside of Metro Manila. Source: Companies, Daiwa Note: Core net income attributable to equity holders of the parent Valuation Philippines Property: discount to NAV Property companies under our coverage trade at varying 80 discounts to NAV with companies that have a higher share 70 60 of recurrent income, and therefore more earnings visibility, 60 50 50 trading at the narrower end of the spectrum (ie, SM Prime), 50 while companies with large landbanks, especially in more 40 rural areas, trading at a wider discount to NAV (ie, Vista 30 20 Land and Filinvest Land). With the exception of SM Prime, 15 20 which we find expensive at the current share price, we 10 think property companies are currently undervalued and 39 72 59 17 61 0 should trade closer to their 5-year historical averages on Ayala Land Filinvest Land Megaworld SM Prime Vista Land the back of an improved residential outlook and growing Discount to NAV Target discount to NAV contribution of recurrent income. Source: Daiwa Earnings revisions Philippines Property: 12-month EPS revisions The street has upgraded its EPS estimates for property 15 11.8 companies under our coverage by 1.2% to 4.6% for 2018, 10 with the exception of Filinvest Land, which saw a 6.2% 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.6 5 2.4 2.7 average downgrade as a result of a change in payment 1.2 0.8 scheme that lengthens downpayment terms and therefore 0 the time before revenue recognition. The upgrades were -1.3 -0.5 -1.1 (5) largely due to an improvement in the residential outlook -6.2 (10) -7.1 following better-than-expected pre-sales since 4Q16. Ayala -9.1 Land, Megaworld and Vista Land have the highest upward (15) revisions at about 4.5% for 2018. Ayala Land Filinvest Land Megaworld SM Prime Vista Land 2018 2019 2020 Source: Bloomberg 2 Philippines Property: 25 June 2018 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg Ayala Land ALI PM 37.55 Buy Outperform 50.00 49.00 2.0% 2.071 1.937 6.9% 2.416 2.262 6.8% Filinvest Land FLI PM 1.55 Buy Buy 2.20 2.15 2.3% 0.260 0.259 0.1% 0.313 0.312 0.4% Megaworld MEG PM 4.45 Buy Buy 5.50 5.30 3.8% 0.466 0.466 0.0% 0.532 0.532 0.0% SM Prime SMPH PM 33.25 Hold Underperform 34.00 34.00 0.0% 1.088 1.088 0.0% 1.173 1.173 0.0% Vista Land & Lifescapes VLL PM 6.49 Buy Buy 8.30 8.00 3.8% 0.779 0.779 0.0% 0.894 0.894 0.0% Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts, share prices as of 22 June 2018. Philippine Property: aggregate pre-sales Philippine Property: aggregate launches 400 18.8 20 300 57.0 70 16.6 350 18 250 60 16 50 300 200 14 40 250 12 150 30 200 10 100 8.0 9.5 20 6.3 150 5.7 8 50 10 6 213 204 153 241 264 0 100 3.4 0 4 -4.3 (10) 50 (50) -24.8 247 261 270 315 334 2 (20) 0 0 (100) (30) 2014 2015 2016 2017 18E 2014 2015 2016 2017 18E Aggregate (PHP bn) YoY growth (%) Aggregate (PHP bn) YoY growth (%) Source: Companies, Daiwa Source: Companies, Daiwa Note: Limited to property companies under coverage Note: Limited to property companies under coverage Philippine Property: office gross leasable area (‘000 sqm) Philippine Property: mall gross leasable area (‘000 sqm) 4,500 10,000 4,000 155 9,000 788 368 723 3,500 155 8,000 287 658 155 7,000 3,000 287 445 147 1,508 6,000 359 4,681 2,500 287 1,351 228 4,487 115 1,218 5,000 169 200 4,292 2,000 207 0 80 4,035 207 1,010 4,000 3,871 70 684 3,647 524 1,500 124 851 684 3,185 3,287 420 361 9770 737 561 3,000 3,026 361 970 621 348 383 1,000 509 348 2,000 318 300 432 275 236 151273 239 200 208 1,098 1,321 166 134170 136170 141 2,550 2,883 500 166 921 990 1,000 134 1,806 2,088 447 500 553 591 709 1,168 1,251 1,298 1,396 1,602 0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Ayala Land Filinvest Land Megaworld SM Prime Vista Land Ayala Land Filinvest Land Megaworld SM Prime Vista Land Source: Companies, Daiwa Source: Companies, Daiwa Note: Limited to property companies under coverage Note: Limited to property companies under coverage 3 Philippines Property: 25 June 2018 Table of contents Executive summary .................................................................................................
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