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Renewable Energy Outlook for the Drina River Basin Countries

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Renewable Energy Outlook for the Drina River Basin Countries DEGREE PROJECT IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, SECOND CYCLE, 30 CREDITS STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 2020 Renewable energy outlook for the Drina River Basin countries EMIR FEJZIC KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SCHOOL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Master of Science Thesis EGI 2018:2020 TRITA-ITM-EX 2020:69 Renewable energy outlook for the Drina River Basin countries Emir Fejzić Approved Examiner Supervisor 27.03.2020 Francesco Fuso Nerini Youssef Almulla Commissioner Contact person Abstract The Drina River Basin (DRB) plays a vital role for the power sectors of the riparian countries of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia. The Drina river and its tributaries have a considerable hydropower potential, which, due to its geographical position and the political landscape between the riparian countries, have not yet been utilized to its full potential. This study aims to investigate the role of hydropower and other renewables in the future energy mix under different scenarios. Additionally, the study aims to examine the renewable energy penetration within the DRB, as well as changes in total CO2eq emissions from the power sector by 2035. The study describes the implementation and testing of a modelling framework with the purpose of analysing the future energy mix. To answer the key research questions, an energy model was created using the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Input parameters for the model were obtained through information gathering based on literature reviews, interviews with local experts and reviews of policy documents. The scenario analysis includes a business as usual scenario (BAU), a nationally determined contribution scenario (NDC), renewable energy scenario (RE) and a sensitivity analysis based on three different levels of implementation of the emission trading scheme (ETS). The results indicate that the share of hydropower differ amongst the scenarios, ranging between 41% and 55% by 2035. The scenario results also show that the share of RES located within the DRB ranges between 45-58% by 2035, in relation to the total installed RES capacity in the basin countries. This high share of economically feasible RES potential highlights the importance of the DRB, particularly since the basin area accounts for approximately 12,8% of the total country area. Furthermore, the obtained results from the scenario analysis indicate the possibility of emission reductions between 7% and 50 % by 2035, compared to the BAU scenario emissions. Keywords: OSeMOSYS; Drina River Basin; Hydropower Sammanfattning Flodområdet Drina (DRB) spelar en central roll för kraftsektorerna i de angränsande länderna Bosnien och Hercegovina, Montenegro och Serbien. Drinafloden och dess bifloder har en betydande vattenkraftpotential som, på grund av dess geografiska position och komplexa politiska landskap, inte har utnyttjats till fullo. Denna studie syftar till att undersöka förnybara energikällors roll i den framtida energimixen, under olika scenarion, med fokus på vattenkraft. Studien ämnar fortsättningsvis att undersöka penetrationen av förnybar energi inom DRB, såväl som förändringar i de totala CO2-utsläppen från kraftsektorn, fram till år 2035. Vidare beskriver studien implementeringen och testningen av en modelleringsram framtagen med syftet att analysera den framtida energimixen. För att besvara forskningsfrågorna skapades en energimodell med hjälp av Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Inmatningsparametrar för modellen erhölls genom informationsinsamling baserad på litteraturgranskningar, intervjuer med lokala experter samt granskningar av nationella policydokument. Scenarioanalysen inkluderar ett Business as Usual scenario (BAU), ett Nationally Determined Contribution scenario (NDC), ett scenario för Renewable Energy (RE) samt en känslighetsanalys baserad på tre olika nivåer för implementering av systemet för utsläppshandel (ETS). Resultaten indikerar på att andelen vattenkraft skiljer sig mellan scenariona och sträcker sig mellan ett intervall på 41% och 55% år 2035. Scenarioresultaten påvisar även att andelen RES som ligger inom DRB varierar mellan 45–58% fram till 2035, i förhållande till den totala installerade RES-kapaciteten inom de angränsande länderna. Den höga andelen ekonomiskt genomförbar RES-potential belyser betydelsen av DRB-området, framför allt då flodområdet utgör cirka 12,8% av det totala landområdet. Vidare indikerar resultaten från scenarioanalysen möjligheten till utsläppsminskningar på mellan 7% och 50% fram till 2035, jämfört med utsläpp indikerade i BAU-scenariot. Nyckelord: OSeMOSYS; Drina River Basin; Vattenkraft Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 Energy Sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina ................................................................................. 7 1.2 Energy Sector in Montenegro................................................................................................. 15 1.3 Energy Sector in Serbia .......................................................................................................... 20 1.4 Energy trade between the riparian countries ......................................................................... 24 1.5 Aim and Objectives ................................................................................................................ 27 2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 28 2.1 Short description of OSeMOSYS ............................................................................................. 28 2.2 Scenario definition and key assumptions ............................................................................... 28 3. Model Results and Discussion .................................................................................................. 30 4. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 41 5. Limitations and Future work .................................................................................................... 42 6. References ............................................................................................................................... 43 7. Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 52 List of figures Figure 1: The hydrographic network of the Drina River Basin Figure 2: Installed capacity by technology type in the riparian countries in 2018 Figure 3: Total power production by source in BiH 2008-2018 Figure 4: Photovoltaic power potential in Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure 5: Monthly max and min hourly loads in BIH 2017 Figure 6: Monthly max and min daily loads in BIH 2017 Figure 7: Yearly production and consumption of electricity in BiH Figure 8: Electricity consumption on the transmission network by utility in BIH 2014-2018 Figure 9: (Left) Photovoltaic power potential in Montenegro (Right) The energy potential of wind power [W/m2] at 50 m AGL Figure 10: Projected monthly peak load for the period 2020-2022 in Montenegro Figure 11: Total electricity demand by consumer type in Montenegro 2012-2018 Figure 12: Wind (left) and Solar (right) potential in Serbia Figure 13: Average electricity trade (GWh) between 2014-2018 between the riparian countries Figure 14: ENTSO-E Continental South East Region Figure 15: Illustration of Net Transfer Capacities in CSE region (2013) Figure 16: Reference Energy System representing the OSeMOSYS model Figure 17: Power production by technology type for all scenarios – Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure 18: CO2eq emissions from the power sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure 19: Power production by technology type for all scenarios– Montenegro Figure 20: CO2eq emissions from the power sector in Montenegro Figure 21: Power production by technology type for all scenarios - Serbia Figure 22: CO2eq emissions from the power sector in Serbia Figure 23: Total emission reductions per scenario compared to the BAU in 2035 Figure 24 – Share of RES located within the DRB in relation to total installed RES capacity Figure 25: Average annual electricity imports to Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure 26: Average annual electricity imports to Montenegro Figure 27: Average annual electricity imports to Serbia 1. Introduction Two merging rivers, Tara and Piva, form the Drina river at Šćepan Polje at an altitude of 434 m AMSL. The river basin covers an area of 19 226 km2, as illustrated in figure 1 below. The Drina River Basin (DRB) is located within the borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia and amounts to one fifth of the Sava River Basin from an area perspective. One third of the Sava river water comes from the Drina river. The most water abundant tributaries of the Drina river originate in Montenegro. The rivers Piva, Tara and Lim provide two thirds of the Drina river water. Figure 1: The hydrographic network of the Drina River Basin (World Bank Group, 2017) The three administrative units shown in figure 1 consist of areas located in Bosnia and Herzegovina (36%), Serbia (34%) and Montenegro (30%). While the areas are evenly distributed between the riparian countries, the population is not. Due to differences in population density within the administrative areas, 47% of the DRB population lives in Serbia, 39% in Bosnia and Herzegovina and only
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