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2007-08 Budget and Supporting Documents for Public Review and Discussion

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2007-08 Budget and Supporting Documents for Public Review and Discussion 2007-2008 Saskatchewan Provincial Budget The Hon. Andrew Thomson Budget and Performance Plan Summary Minister of Finance Minister’s Message It is with great pleasure that I table the 2007-08 Budget and supporting documents for public review and discussion. There has never been a better time to be in Saskatchewan. Our province is enjoying prosperous times, and this Budget is making life even better for Saskatchewan families. This Budget provides more reasons for young people to make their future right here, continues with the business tax cuts we began last year, makes new investments in health care, and provides more funds for our communities and economic infrastructure. For young people, university tuition remains frozen at 2004 levels until 2008. To help young people start their careers right here at home, we have introduced a new Graduate Tax Exemption that, coupled with other measures, will allow graduates to earn $20,000 of income tax-free in each of the first five years following graduation. This is a Budget that takes care of Saskatchewan families as it introduces a universal $15 seniors’ drug plan to help make drugs more affordable for all seniors. It also increases funding to provide more surgeries and diagnostic testing. It delivers historic levels of funding for municipalities to help keep taxes down, for school boards to improve the quality of education and for universities to improve research and scholarship. Our biggest-ever capital and infrastructure budget exceeds $500 million and includes funds to complete highway twinning work, rebuild rural highways, and other efforts to maintain and improve key economic transportation corridors. These new investments in our highways and transportation networks are part of an unprecedented $5 billion investment over the next 10 years and build on The Fuel Tax Accountability Act introduced last year. I invite you to browse this and other related documents to discover for yourself how we are helping make life better for Saskatchewan families through measures provided in Budget 2007-08. Honourable Andrew Thomson Minister of Finance Table of Contents MINISTER’S MESSAGE TECHNICAL PAPERS Saskatchewan’s Economic Outlook . 6 General Revenue Fund Financial Outlook . 13 A Plan for Growth and Opportunity . 20 Graduate Tax Exemption . 28 Saskatchewan’s Tax Expenditures . 30 2007 Intercity Comparison of Taxes and Household Charges . 35 2007-08 Borrowing and Debt . 39 Fiscal Stabilization Fund . 44 Saskatchewan Infrastructure Fund . .45 GENERAL REVENUE FUND (GRF) FINANCIAL TABLES GRF – Statement of Operations and Accumulated Deficit . 48 GRF – Statement of Change in Net Debt . 48 GRF – Statement of Cash Flow . 49 GRF – Schedule of Revenue . 50 GRF – Schedule of Expense . 51 GRF – Schedule of Debt . 52 GRF – Schedule of Borrowing Requirements . 53 GRF – Schedule of Guaranteed Debt . 54 SUMMARY FINANCIAL BUDGET DETAILS (FINANCIAL TABLES) Summary Statement of Surplus . 56 Summary Statement of Changes in Net Debt . 58 Summary Statement of Financial Position . 59 Summary Statement of Debt . 60 Supplementary Information . 61 PERFORMANCE PLAN SUMMARY Performance Plan Summary . 70 2007–2008 Saskatchewan Provincial Budget Technical Papers Saskatchewan’s Economic Outlook INTRODUCTION Over the period 2003 to 2005, Saskatchewan real GDP growth averaged 3.5 per cent per In recent years, Saskatchewan’s economy has year. In comparison, Canadian real GDP performed well relative to other Canadian growth averaged 2.7 per cent per year. In provinces. Oil, natural gas and other mining nominal terms, Saskatchewan GDP growth have no doubt played a role. However, averaged 7.7 per cent per year while Canadian strength in other sectors, most notably GDP growth averaged 6.0 per cent per year. manufacturing, retail trade and construction has also contributed to the Province’s Between 2003 and 2005, Saskatchewan economic growth. nominal GDP has increased by 24.9 per cent while Saskatchewan real GDP has increased In 2003, Saskatchewan real GDP growth by 10.8 per cent. (volume of output) was second highest among all Canadian provinces at 4.1 per cent. In In 2006, despite lower sales of potash (due 2004 and 2005, Saskatchewan growth ranked to stalled contract negotiations with China), third. In nominal terms (value of output), a smaller crop, and challenges in forestry and Saskatchewan GDP growth ranked third in the wood and paper products industry, real 2003 at 6.5 per cent. In 2004 and 2005, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.2 per cent. Saskatchewan placed second at 9.4 per cent Real GDP growth is forecast to increase to and third at 7.2 per cent, respectively. 2.9 per cent in 2007 as potash sales rebound and crop production improves. REAL AND NOMINAL GDP 45 40 35 Billions of Dollars 30 25 | Budget and Performance Plan Summary 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Real GDP Nominal GDP Budget 2007-08 6 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS growth in the first, second and third quarters, AND OUTLOOK respectively. This deceleration was due in part to reduced U.S. demand for building The global economy remains sound despite materials and motor vehicles. However, strong some slowing of the U.S. economy. The Euro- employment and real personal disposable zone ended 2006 on a positive footing, income, together with increases in household thanks in part to better-than-expected growth net worth, has continued to support growth in Germany, while China’s economy posted in consumer spending. growth of over 10.0 per cent in 2006. Strong growth in final domestic demand is After a strong start to 2006, U.S. real GDP anticipated to fuel economic growth over the growth decelerated due in large part to a forecast period. Canadian real GDP growth slowdown in residential investment and of 2.3 per cent in 2007 and 2.8 per cent in motor vehicle production. Fortunately, 2008 is anticipated, following growth of adjustments in these sectors have not led to 2.7 per cent in 2006. significant spill-over effects in the rest of the U.S. economy. Household consumption has The inflation rate is expected to average remained firm, supported by employment 1.6 per cent in 2007, and then 1.9 per cent gains in the services sector. Consequently, in 2008 as the pace of growth picks up. Short- U.S. real GDP growth of 2.4 per cent in 2007 term interest rates are anticipated to average and 3.1 per cent in 2008 is expected, 4.2 per cent this year and 4.3 per cent in following growth of 3.3 per cent in 2006. 2008 while long-term interest rates are expected to average 5.4 per cent this year CANADIAN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS and 5.9 per cent in 2008. The Canadian dollar AND OUTLOOK is expected to average 88.4 US cents in 2007 and 89.6 US cents in 2008. Canadian real GDP growth slowed to a 1.4 per cent annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2006, following 3.8 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 2.0 per cent annualized Budget and Performance Plan Summary | CANADIAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2006* 2007 2008 2009 Real GDP (% Change) 2.7 2.3 2.8 2.9 CPI (% Change) 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 Short-term Interest Rates (%) 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 Long-term Interest Rates (%) 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.3 Canadian Dollar (US cents) 88.4 88.4 89.6 90.3 Budget 2007-08 * Actual 7 OUTLOOK FOR NON-RENEWABLE The price of natural gas is expected to RESOURCE COMMODITY PRICES average $6.12 per gigajoule (GJ) in 2007 and $6.25 per GJ in 2008 compared to $6.33 in Strong global demand, tight spare capacity 2006. While prices are expected to come in both production and refining as well as down slightly over the forecast period they geopolitical tensions drove the average price remain historically high. of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil to US$66.25 in 2006. The price of a barrel Potash prices averaged $270.44 per tonne last of WTI oil is expected to decline slightly in year, 4.3 per cent lower than in 2005. Prices 2007 and 2008, averaging US$58.75 and are anticipated to rise to $280.87 per tonne US$58.00, respectively. in 2007 and $283.22 per tonne in 2008. AVERAGE ANNUAL WTI OIL PRICES 70 Actual Forecast 60 50 40 $/Barrel 30 S U 20 10 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 AVERAGE ANNUAL NATURAL GAS PRICES 9 Actual Forecast 8 7 6 5 $/GJ C 4 3 2 1 | Budget and Performance Plan Summary 0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Budget 2007-08 8 AVERAGE ANNUAL POTASH PRICES 300 Actual Forecast 275 250 225 200 $/Tonne C 175 150 125 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 OUTLOOK FOR NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCE COMMODITY PRICES 2005* 2006 2007 2008 2009 WTI Oil (US$/barrel) 56.70 66.25 58.75 58.00 55.00 Natural Gas (C$/GJ) 7.94 6.33 6.12 6.25 6.20 Potash (C$/tonne) 282.67 270.44 280.87 283.22 284.40 * Actual AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK The economic forecast assumes both crop quantity and crop quality will be normal in The crop harvest is also an important each of the forecast years. Prices of some of determinant of provincial economic growth. the major grains are anticipated to decrease Saskatchewan farmers harvested 25.6 million in the upcoming crop year. Cattle and hog tonnes of grains, oilseeds and specialty crops prices are also anticipated to decline in 2006, which was 16.5 per cent less than throughout much of the forecast period.
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