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International Security Affairs No The Journal of International Security Affairs No. 23, Fall/Winter 2012 The Future of Warfare featuring articles by Admiral William H. McRaven, USN Commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command & General Norton Schwartz, USAF (ret.) Former Air Force Chief of Staff Also in this issue ... The Obama Scorecard www.securityaffairs.org Performance is essential Rolls-Royce engines power some of the most critical aircraft in the US Military fleet. When performance matters most, we deliver. Trusted to deliver excellence www.rolls-royce.com GTP 9238 (3/2011) The Journal of International Security Affairs Ilan Berman Editor James Colbert Deputy Editor Jennifer Keech Graphic Design & Layout James P. Cetrone Web Development Erica Nurnberg Marketing Manager Editorial Board George Violin, Chairman; A. John Adams; Amb. John Bolton; Dr. Armeane Choksi; Adm. Leon “Bud” Edney, USN (ret.); Dr. Joshua Muravchik; Dr. Michael G. Rapp; Maj. Gen. Sidney Shachnow, USA (ret.); R. Adm. Robert Smith, III, USN (ret.); Amb. Chase Untermeyer MANUSCRIPTS SHOULD BE SENT TO: 1307 New York ADVERTISING: Please contact the Marketing Man- Ave., NW, Suite 200, Washington, D.C. 20005. ager, Erica Nurnberg ([email protected]) for The Editor will consider all manuscripts information on availability and ad rates. received, but will assume no responsibility REPRINTS AND PERMISSIONS: Write: The Journal of regarding them and will return only materials International Security Affairs, Reader Services, accompanied by appropriate postage. Facsimile 1307 New York Ave., NW, Suite 200, Washing- submissions will not be accepted. ton, D.C. 20005. Fax: (202) 667-0601. PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. © 2012 Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. All rights reserved. No part of this magazine may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior written permission from the publisher. EDITOR’S NOTE: The opinions expressed in The Journal of International Security Affairs (ISSN 1532- 4060) are those of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs. The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), Inc., is an independent, non-profit, non- partisan, non-sectarian educational organization established in 1976 to fulfill a two-fold mandate: To educate the American public about the threats and dangers facing our country and our global allies; to explain why a mobile, technologically superior military is vital to America’s security; to provide leadership on issues affecting American national security and foreign policy; to explain to Americans and others the importance of U.S. security cooperation with like-minded democratic partners around the world and to explain the key role Israel plays in the Mediterranean and Middle East as an outpost of liberty, a linchpin of stability and a friend and ally of the United States. The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, Inc., incorporated in the District of Columbia, is a tax-exempt organization under section 501(c)(3) of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. T:5.25" T-100 We don’t just build planes. We build pilots. T:8.5" As the world’s most advanced 4th and 5th generation flight training system, the Alenia Aermacchi T-100 combines superior engineering with lower acquisition and life-cycle costs. It’s just one example of the innovation, performance and proven technology of Finmeccanica companies. With over 11,000 U.S. employees, we are proud to share in the mission to support America’s warfighters. Learn more at fi nmeccanicausa.com Proven performance. Worldwide. AERONAUTICS | HELICOPTERS | DEFENSE AND SECURITY ELECTRONICS | DEFENSE SYSTEMS | SPACE JOB: FIN-GEN-M87277A DOCUMENT NAME: 2C68658_FIN_a3.1_c.indd DESCRIPTION: '12 T-100 JINSA Awards (Page B/W) BLEED: None TRIM: 5.25" x 8.5" SAFETY: None GUTTER: None PUBLICATION: 2012 Journal of International Security Affairs ART DIRECTOR: Greg Elkin 8-3759 COPYWRITER: Kevin O’Donoghue 8-3352 ACCT. MGR.: Chad Oliver 8-3863 ART PRODUCER: Bill Gastinger 8-3727 PRINT PROD.: Mike Dunn 8-3126 PROJ. MNGR.: Elena Brady 8-4104 This advertisement prepared by Young & Rubicam, N.Y. 2C68658_FIN_a3.1_c.indd CLIENT: Finmeccanica TMG #: 2C68658 HANDLE #: 4 JOB #: FIN-GEN-M87277A BILLING#: FIN-GEN-M87277 DOCUMENT NAME: 2C68658_FIN_a3.1_c.indd PAGE COUNT: 1 of 1 PRINT SCALE: 100% INDESIGN VERSION: CS5 STUDIO ARTIST: carlos LAST SAVE DATE: 3-5-2012 3:13 PM CREATOR: Paul Gruberg CREATION DATE: 3-5-2012 10:35 AM DOCUMENT PATH: TMG:Volumes:TMG:Clients:YR:Finmeccanica:Jobs:2012:2C:2C68658_FIN-GEN-M87277:Mechanicals:2C68658_FIN_a3.1_c.indd FONT FAMILY: Helvetica Neue (75 Bold, 95 Black, 55 Roman) LINK NAME: 2C68658_FIN_a1_w.tif, FINM_KO_yr.ai, Alenia_Aermacchi_KO_yr.ai INK NAME: Black The Journal of International Security Affairs No. 23, Fall/Winter 2012 Editor’s Note Ilan Berman 3 The Future of Warfare Preparing Special Operations Forces for the Future Adm. William H. McRaven 5 How America’s elite warriors are adapting to new battlefields and new challenges. Toward an Integrated Joint Force General Norton Schwartz, USAF (ret.) 13 Today’s complex global security environment requires a new kind of jointness. The Triad’s Uncertain Future Mark B. Schneider 21 Strategic cuts and disarmament efforts have put American nuclear primacy in peril. Ceding the Next Battlefield Eric R. Sterner 31 Space is increasingly critical to our security and prosperity. Yet America still needs a strategy to compete there. Getting Serious About Cyberwarfare Frank J. Cilluffo & J. Richard Knop 41 When it comes to cybersecurity, the United States is still at the starting line. It shouldn’t be. The Obama Scorecard Misreading the Muslim World Jeffrey Gedmin 49 Waging the battle of ideas requires an understanding of culture and an appreciation of values. Both are currently missing in U.S. outreach. Cold War Nuclear Redux Jamie M. Fly & Evan D. Moore 55 President Obama has reverted to old thinking about arms control and nuclear security. Cruise Control in the War on Terror Thomas Joscelyn 67 Tactical successes and strategic failures typify the White House’s approach to counterterrorism. The Sorry State of U.S. Economic Statecraft Andrew K. Davenport 79 Currently, America isn’t seriously using economic warfare against our enemies. Here’s how we can. A False Start With Russia Herman Pirchner, Jr. 87 Obama’s vaunted “reset” with Russia rests on exceedingly shaky foundations. Reading China Wrong Michael Pillsbury 95 The misguided objective of “building trust” continues to warp Washington’s policy toward Beijing. Obama’s European Failure Luke Coffey 101 How the current Administration has abandoned its Continental allies—and why that’s a mistake. The Cost of Misunderstanding Iran Ilan Berman 109 The Obama administration’s Iran policy is driven by dangerous misconceptions about the nature of the regime in Tehran. Perspective America’s Shifting Defense Priorities 119 An interview with Dr. William Schneider, Jr. Dispatches CHILE: Iran’s Latin American Adventure Ivan Witker 123 TURKEY: Anatomy of a Power Struggle Claire Berlinski 125 PAKISTAN: The Real Crisis in Pakistan-U.S. Relations Sohail Mahmood 129 Book Reviews How Israel Thinks About Iran Kenneth Katzman 131 From Yaakov Katz and Yoaz Hendel, an inside look at the coming conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem. World Upside Down Elan Journo 135 Peter Berkowitz explains how international law is being wielded as a weapon against Israel. A Spy’s World Malcolm Forbes 139 An elite peek into the post-9/11 counterterrorism effort, coutesy of Henry Crumpton. The Interpreter Winfield Myers 143 Bernard Lewis looks back at his lifelong love affair with the Muslim World. Editor’s Note For most of the past two decades, the United States has confronted a “revolution in military affairs”—a transformation typified by new adversaries, new battlefields and new tactics. Today, the challenge is more profound than ever. New technologies have given non-state actors such as al-Qaeda an unprecedented ability to exert influence over nation-state behav- ior. Rogue nations such as Iran and North Korea increasingly exhibit extensive ballistic missile and nuclear capabilities—and are actively seeking to acquire more. Meanwhile, strategic competitors (like Russia and China) are busy making major investments in every- thing from cyber capabilities to space warfare. To maintain its strategic primacy, America needs to adapt as well. To explore how it should, this issue of The Journal leads off with a quintet of articles focusing on “The Future of Warfare.” Admiral William H. McRaven, the commander of United States Special Opera- tions Command (USSOCOM), lays out how America’s special operators are augmenting security through a range of direct and indirect action—and, in the process, expanding the ability of partner nations to do the same. General Norton Schwartz, the recently retired Air Force Chief of Staff, explains the rationale behind the Pentagon’s new “Air-Sea Battle” concept, and outlines how it will help America confront new threats facing the U.S. and its allies. Mark Schneider of the National Institute for Public Policy lays out the pressures now facing the U.S. arsenal—and the dire consequences that will result if America doesn’t get serious about its strategic capabilities. The George C. Marshall Institute’s Eric Sterner then makes a compelling case that Washington needs to get beyond rhetoric and begin to truly treat space as a new medium for conflict. Finally, Frank Cilluffo and J. Richard Knop of The George Washington University explain the changing nature of cyber threats to the U.S. homeland—and suggest a way forward for both cyber defense and cyber offense. We then turn our attention to President Obama’s foreign policy record. The Legatum Insti- tute’s Jeff Gedmin, a former Director of Radio Free Europe, leads off by looking at U.S. stra- tegic communications—and where it is currently falling short.
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