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Implications for Evidence Based Practice The International Journal Of Business & Management (ISSN 2321–8916) www.theijbm.com THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT Using a Market Share Approach towards Tourism Planning for Millennial Travellers: Implications for Evidence Based Practice Dr. Walter Mzembi Aldersgate University College, Philippines Minister, Tourism and Hospitality Industry, Zimbabwe Chairperson, United Nations World Tourism Organization Regional Commission for Africa, Zimbabwe Abstract: This article present data about an evidence based framework for planning basing on the unique characteristics of the millennial generation (also known as generation ‘Y’) in the tourism industry. “Generation Y refers to the specific generation born between the 1990’s to the early 2000. The research which synthesised existing and empirical exploratory study in Zimbabwe, established that it is also widely acknowledged that the lifestyle differences which are determined by generations has a more defined consistency than demographic attributes like education, gender and income. In the USA, millennials have begun to shape market dynamics mainly because they are three times the size of the older generation X and are the largest market since baby boomers. Since “market share is positively correlated to profits, tourism operators can gain a huge market share by harnessing the preferences of the millennial generation through meeting their unique requirements. The sheer potential of the millennial spending power makes it imperative to understand their patterns and attitudes regarding expenditure. A knowledge of their unique behavioural attributes has the potential to transform how tourism has to be planned going into the future. Such knowledge can produce economic value through diffusion of knowledge into the [service delivery] process. 1. Background and Introduction The research takes place against a background whereby industries are beginning to understand and deploy knowledge to enhance their performance. A vast majority of organisations have adopted the tools and methods of the 21st century knowledge economy whereby organisations collect empirical data to inform their strategic and operational decisions. (Hogan, 2011; Noordin and Mohtar, 2013; Chavula, 2010). Beginning in the early 1990s, strategists from global economic powers in the OECD had anticipated the increasing role of knowledge in business and economics. “The term “knowledge-based economy” results from a fuller recognition of the role of knowledge and technology in economic growth.” (OECD, 1996:9). … analytical approaches are being developed so that knowledge can be included more directly in production functions. Investments in knowledge can increase the productive capacity of the other factors of production as well as transform them into new products and processes. (OECD, 1996:11). All the countries which belong to Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have made tremendous moves to become knowledge based economies. However, Africa continues to trail behind. (World Bank, 2012) UNESCO which is associated with the global tourism industry has endorsed the adoption of and encourages policies that promote knowledge based practice to increase service efficiency. (Al-Rahbi et al., 2008). In this particular case, this paper focuses on the collection of data and knowledge on the profile of generation Y or millennial group for use in tourism strategic and operational planning and implementation. It is expected that increasingly, over the next ten years, “Millennial travellers … will enter their peak earning and spending years. Their maturation is expected to drive the next wave of consumer and tourism growth.” (McKinsey and Company, 2013:7) This allows for long term sector-wide strategic planning within the tourism industry. This approach is quintessential in a scenario whereby “advocates of market-share objectives have provided no evidence to support their contention” (Armstrong and Green, 2007:128) Thus tourism departs from a sentimental appreciation on the value of knowledge in business to an empirical one. 2. Literature Review Many scholars acknowledge that in recent years academia and policy practitioners have increased their interest in ‘generational analysis’ within the various tourism literature. (Xi, et al, 2013; Chang and Sung Hee, 2010 Beldona, Nusair, and Demicco, 2009). The practice of generational cohort marketing has begun to influence market segmentation and become a useful tool for differentiating and measuring markets. 199 Vol 5 Issue 2 February, 2017 The International Journal Of Business & Management (ISSN 2321–8916) www.theijbm.com This is largely due to the similarity in values, experiences and preferences (Parment, 2013). The beliefs, values, expectations and behaviours of a cohort remain more or less constant throughout the lifetime of a generation (Jackson et al., 2011). Below is a demarcation of millennial generations in the populations of selected countries. Table 1 Source: Hole (2010:100) As seen in the classification above, one of the most outstanding aspects of using a generation cohort based analysis is that there are no fixed metrics to demarcate who are millennial generations and which ones are not. The country by country differences in the starting point accounting for the different generations depends on country level factors in terms of technology introduction, development and diffusion. In literature, there are a few areas of overlap depending from scholar to scholar. (Reisenwitz & Iyer, 2009) For example Garikapati et al (2016) considers the millennial generation to be those “born between 1979 and 2000”. Case and Schipinski (2015:3) sets the millennial range at 1982 through 2000. For the sake of this study, the researcher utilised the framework by Ordun (2015:7) and based on the American population. This is elaborated in the section on methodology below. Yet another important framework, slightly different from the one by Hole (2010) seeks to enhance an understanding of the progression of the generations. It is shown in the table below. Table 2 Source: Case and Schipinski, (2015:3) This classification shows not just the demarcation of the various generations, but also shows how they progress in the market over time. This affects the timing of planners and implementers. 200 Vol 5 Issue 2 February, 2017 The International Journal Of Business & Management (ISSN 2321–8916) www.theijbm.com In the broader scheme, the key attributes of the generation should be the focus of planners and managers in evidence based practice. As a case in point, generation Y millennials were raised in an environment saturated with advanced technology like desktop and laptop computers, smartphones, and the internet “… constantly plugged into technology.” This has transformed the way people in their generation engage with the outside world. Yusop ‘Generation Y prefer to communicate more quickly and effectively. This generation is also attracted to organizations where technology is’ (Yusop 2015:3). Millennials are also often known to be a “frugal generation” (O’Connell, 2015). That is why they spend a lot of time searching cheap flights and accommodation arrangements online. Other traits include “lower rates of car ownership” and travel fewer miles and minutes on a daily basis (Polzin et al, 2014; McDonald, 2015). ICT gives millenials the requisite capabilities to search for the budget facilities and also for fast communication as noted above. “Lacking such knowledge, one might be tempted to oversimplify the cause-and-effect relationships between market shares and marketing variables.” Cooper and Nakanishi (2010:1). This the reason why it is vital to adopt an approach in evidence based practice to maximise the development and performance of the tourism sector in Zimbabwe ad across the whole world. 2.1. Objectives (1) To compare the sizes of the Zimbabwean generations based on census 2012 results (2) To determine the size of the millennial generation against the other generations (3) To determine level of education for the different generations (4) To map out the levels of economically active populations among the generations (5) To model tourism market share based on size of millennial generation (6) To make planning recommendations for operators in the tourism industry based on the market share of the millennials 3. Methodology The researcher has used content analysis to profile the various generations from the results of census 2012. The criteria for benchmarking and measuring the size of the various generation is based on a United States classification. Four major cohorts exist in the United States. Builders were born between 1920 and 1945; Baby Boomers between 1946 and 1964; Generation X members were born between 1965 and 1980 and Generation Y between 1981 and 2000. (Ordun, 2015:7). The researcher has used this framework to demarcate the generations in the context of Zimbabwe. This is a default approach which allows modelling. The researcher has adopted the framework because the researcher could not find a similar framework which classifies Zimbabwean generations based on ‘X’ and ‘Y” and also coupled with an analysis of technological diffusion and integration. The American model was preferred because the USA together with England, Canada, New Zealand and Australia have a similar British benchmark in terms of literacy, language, technology and formal institutional and historical networks. Zimbabwe was built on a British post-colonial foundation and is thus largely integrated
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