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Structural Vulnerability and Fragility: an Assessment Based on Composite Indicators Structural vulnerability and fragility : an assessment based on composite indicators Sosso Feindouno To cite this version: Sosso Feindouno. Structural vulnerability and fragility : an assessment based on composite indicators. Economics and Finance. Université Clermont Auvergne, 2018. English. NNT : 2018CLFAD014. tel-02983055 HAL Id: tel-02983055 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02983055 Submitted on 29 Oct 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Ecole Doctorale des Sciences Economiques, Juridiques, Politiques et de Gestion Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International (CERDI) Université Clermont Auvergne, CNRS, IRD, CERDI, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY AND FRAGILITY: AN ASSESSMENT BASED ON COMPOSITE INDICATORS Thèse présentée et soutenue publiquement le 17 Décembre 2018 Pour l’obtention du titre de Docteur ès Sciences Economiques Par Sosso FEINDOUNO Sous la direction de Michaël GOUJON Membres du Jury Stéphane BLANCARD Professeur, Agrosup Dijon Rapporteur François HOARAU Professeur, Université de La Réunion Rapporteur Oskar LECUYER Chargé de recherche, Agence Française de Développement Suffragant Patrick PLANE Directeur de recherche, CNRS-CERDI Suffragant Michaël GOUJON Maître de conférences – HDR, Université Clermont Auvergne Directeur L’université d’Auvergne n’entend donner aucune approbation ni improbation aux opinions émises dans cette thèse. Ces opinions doivent être considérées comme propres à l’auteur. 2 3 REMERCIEMENTS Je tiens tout d’abord à remercier mes parents pour le soutien sans faille qu’ils n’ont cessé de m’apporter durant mes études et plus encore durant cette autre étape qu’est le doctorat. Je veux ici saluer leur volonté de m’accompagner dans chacun des choix que j’ai eu à faire pour mes études. Cette thèse n’aurait pu être réalisée sans la contribution de nombre de personnes. Ainsi se présente pour moi l’occasion de leur exprimer toute ma reconnaissance. Mes remerciements les plus sincères vont à l’endroit de mon directeur de thèse Michaël Goujon pour sa disponibilité à diriger cette thèse. Malgré les moments quelquefois difficiles, il a su faire preuve de maestria et de compréhension dans sa double casquette de directeur de thèse et de responsable du programme indicateurs à la Ferdi. Dans la sphère de ses compétences, il m’a beaucoup apporté dans la connaissance des méandres du métier de chercheur avec les multiples conseils prodigués durant cette thèse. Une véritable chance pour moi de travailler avec lui. Ensuite, je remercie le jury de cette thèse pour le temps consacré à la lecture, à l’examen mais aussi à l’amélioration de ce travail à travers les remarques formulées. 4 Ma profonde reconnaissance va aussi à la Ferdi et à sa direction pour m’avoir donné l’occasion de faire cette thèse en lien avec mon poste d’assistant de recherche. Je veux ici adresser un grand merci au Professeur Patrick Guillaumont avec qui j’ai beaucoup appris du concept de vulnérabilité et de sa mesure. Cette thèse est d’ailleurs beaucoup marquée par son approche dynamique et structurelle de la vulnérabilité. Je veux aussi remercier tout le personnel administratif de la Ferdi, les chercheurs, les responsables de programmes et surtout mes collègues assistants de recherche pour l’ambiance bon enfant qui a toujours régné dans notre magnifique bureau communément appelé «Bureau des assistants de recherche ». Je veux remercier toutes celles et tous ceux à la Ferdi et au Cerdi qui consacrent leur vie à la recherche en proposant des idées novatrices pour le recul de la pauvreté dans le monde. Leur engagement mais surtout leur partage d’expériences à travers les séminaires permettent de faire avancer la recherche pour le progrès des pays les moins avancés. In fine, un merci authentique à l’endroit de tous ceux que j’ai omis, mais qui, directement ou indirectement, de près ou de loin, ont contribué de manière significative à la réalisation de ce travail. 5 CONTENTS REMERCIEMENTS ....................................................................................................................... 4 CONTENTS .................................................................................................................................. 6 LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... 12 LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... 14 LIST OF APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 16 RESUME .................................................................................................................................... 18 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 22 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 26 CHAPTER 1: STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY ........................................................... 36 I - Introduction ................................................................................................................... 36 II - The CDP’s economic vulnerability index (EVI) .................................................................. 41 II - 1) A brief history and description ........................................................................................ 41 II - 2) Rescaling or normalization of components ..................................................................... 43 II - 3) Aggregation and weighting of components..................................................................... 43 II - 4) Bias induced by the addition of the environmental element (LECZ) ............................... 44 6 II - 5) Towards a simpler, more consistent and more balanced EVI? * ..................................... 45 II - 6) Application of different options with the climatic variable of the EVI: sensitivity analysis for African countries ................................................................................................................. 46 II - 7) Is there a link between structural economic vulnerability and fragility in Africa? .......... 49 III - Building annual retrospective series of the EVI* ............................................................. 53 III - 1) UN-CDP 2015 EVI official values versus retrospective 2015 EVI values ......................... 54 III - 2) Population size ................................................................................................................ 56 III - 3) Remoteness from world markets ................................................................................... 57 III - 4) Merchandise export concentration ................................................................................ 59 III - 5) Share of agriculture, forestry and fisheries in GDP ........................................................ 61 III - 6) Share of population living in low elevated coastal zone ................................................ 62 III - 7) Instability of exports of goods and services.................................................................... 64 III - 8) Instability of agricultural production .............................................................................. 66 III - 9) Victims of natural disasters............................................................................................. 67 IV - Analysis of the global evolution of the EVI and its components: a stochastic dominance approach ............................................................................................................................ 69 IV - 1) First, second and nth degree SD criteria ........................................................................ 70 IV - 2) Tests for SD of a composite index over time .................................................................. 71 IV - 3) Results ............................................................................................................................ 74 V - Concluding remarks ....................................................................................................... 79 References ......................................................................................................................... 80 Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 83 CHAPTER 2: HUMAN ASSETS INDEX: INSIGHTS FROM A RETROSPECTIVE SERIES ANALYSIS* 90 I - Introduction ................................................................................................................... 90 II - The Human Asset Index retrospective series ................................................................... 93 II - 1) The rationale for Human Asset Index retrospective series ............................................
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