JCP Bangladesh Metamodel
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JCP Bangladesh Metamodel Expert reflection session (Water & Climate Change) July 16, 2020 Code of conduct • Please mute your microphone, if you don’t talk • Ask your questions in chat (will try after the topic presentations) • Raise your hand during discussions in Teams, if you want to make a remark 3 Program • Opening and introductions by chair Abu Saleh Khan (Executive Director, IWM) • Presentations progress Bangladesh Metamodel • Introduction (Marnix) • Detailed concepts/assumptions of WBM and NM (Riasat) • Calibration results of NM (Shahadat) • Calibration results of WBM (Kymo) • Results of runs with MM (Kymo) • Surface water salinity (Shahadat) • Closing by the chair • General reflection and recommendations Example of use of Metamodel for an investment project Agencies GED (Re-) (Re-)select Explore projects on SDG formulate clusters of & BDP goal contribution, project projects impacts and investment Assess & Assess (Re-)select projects into compare impact programs impact Concept Sector Assess and compare note Action Plan impact Impact explorer BDP Investment Plan Input to 8th & 9th 5YP & Impact explorer & Annual Development Plans Program manager Metamodel modules Metamodel engine module workflow State Indicators Decision Support Indicators Environmental flow (m3/s)* Annual rainfall damage (Taka) Network Salinity Dry season river flow (m3/s) (water in River navigability (km/class)* river) Annual flood extent (km2) Rural access to safe drinking water (%)* Habitat area suitable Water Annual flood duration (month) for protective species (km2)* Balance Extreme flood extent (km2) (water from Water Demand Waterlogged area (km2) river to GWL at end of dry season (m) upazila) Poor households affected Flood damage (Taka) Flood Agricultural by droughts, floods and salinity (%)* Damage production Displaced people due to disasters (%)* Rice production (Ton) Food security for the poor (%) Todays focus Food security Area affected by salinity (km2)* Cost of project implementation (Taka) * Under development 5 Reflection on Previous Expert Session (29-04-2020) More Information on Updating Technical Calibration & Validation Include river base flow Water Exchange Reference Whole Network (105 in MM between Land & River Documentation nodes) Final Waiting Final Ongoing Separate Calibration & Update BDP2100 Development USER Validation scenarios with Reference Manual Dry & Monsoon Season newest insights (SIBDP) Ongoing (105 nodes) Final Final Calibrate & Add information on Explore MM Validate Network BDP scenarios in MM Connection with Sector module in combination documentation Action Plans with WBM Final Final Ongoing Waterbalance “To simulate waterdepths and shortages up to field level for each landtype per upazila in Bangladesh” Simulation of: - Rainfall flooding: extents, depth, timing and duration - River and tidal flooding: extents, depth, timing and duration - Agricultural drought water availability / crop demand ratio - Hydrological drought impact on surface- and ground waterlevels Closely connected with River network module: “To emulate transport of water through the major river network of Bangladesh” Water distribution Spatial and temporal information • 10880 calculation units • Upazilas (544) • Inside/outside BWDB project boundaries (2) • Agricultural land type map (BARC, 1999) + shrimp, forest, settlements, rivers and waterbodies (10) • Variables • Dominant soil category per upazila calculation unit (topsoil texture map, BARC) • Average land height (mPWD) from Bangladesh DEM (WARPO) • Average height of embankments per upazila is assumed to be 50cm higher than highest wl (1985-2017) from nearest river • Initial average groundwater levels derived from BADC • Rootzone storage is informed by effective soil depth map (BARC) • Percolation rates are informed by soil drainage map (BARC) • Precipitation (and reference evaporation) is based on timeseries of nearest BMD-station (1985 – 2017) 3 main steps in a decadal time step Precipitation 1) Vertical distribution of water; 2) Horizontal Distribution of Water 3) Shortage of Excess of Evapotranspiration Water at Field Level Drainage Inlet GW Irrigation Infiltration + Percolation Module output for NW-region (base run) Observations: 1. Clear seasonal diff II. Large annual variation III. Residual moisture supplemented by GW irrigation in beginning of dry season Available for every district in Bangladesh (currently calibrated for NW-region) Module output for NW-region (base run) Observations: 1. Clear seasonal diff II. Large annual variation III. Residual moisture supplemented by GW irrigation in beginning of dry season Available for every district in Bangladesh (currently calibrated for NW-region) Example output: flooding and drought characteristics Main observations: I. Large annual variation II. Distinction in river floods and rainfall floods III. Timing and duration of floods inside/outside embankments IV. Crop water supply- demand ratio ~100% Available for every district in Bangladesh (currently calibrated for NW-region) Extent of Network Module Flow Distribution m1 Q_downstream-1 = B1 * (Q_upstream - QQo) Q_downstream-2 = Q_upstream - Q_downstream-1 Example case at Old Brahmaputra offtake: 1. QN80 = 0 when QN75 < 4900 m1 2. QN80 = B1*(QN75 - QQo1) when QN75 =< 21100 m2 3. QN80 = B2* (QN75 - QQo2) when QN75 > 21100 QN90 = QN75 – QN80 Water Level Calculation Relation between Discharge and Water Level at Mawa, Padma River (N300) 8 7 6 5 When Q <= 42277 4 d1 a1 n1 h01 3 0 3000 1.7 0.1 Water Level (mPWD) 2 1 When Q > 42277 0 d2 a2 n2 h02 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 0 2500 1.9 0.3 Discharge (m^3/s) Jamuna River, Daudkandi Calibration and Validation Node NSE PBAIS R_square .peakError Log_NSE Season Categoty N90 0.98 -0.48 0.98 3228.58 0.98 Monsoon Calibration N90 0.98 0.59 0.99 -755.86 0.93 Dry Calibration N90 0.94 -0.03 0.94 -873.84 0.95 Monsoon Validation N90 0.96 1.27 0.97 -440.57 0.93 Dry Validation Ganges River, Sujanagar Calibration and Validation Node NSE PBAIS R_square .peakError Log_NSE Season Categoty N280 0.99 1.83 0.99 -1443.89 0.98 Monsoon Calibration N280 0.94 10.82 0.98 1364.86 0.93 Dry Calibration N280 0.99 -0.82 0.99 -2424.77 0.99 Monsoon Validation N280 0.96 10.79 1.00 1161.84 0.97 Dry Validation Hurasagar River, Ahmmadpur Calibration and Validation Node MAE R_square Season Categoty N220 0.55 0.87 Monsoon Calibration N220 0.41 0.71 Dry Calibration N220 0.74 0.86 Monsoon Validation N220 0.31 0.77 Dry Validation Karatoya River, Gomnati Bazar Calibration and Validation Node MAE R_square .peakError Season Categoty N185 0.44 0.75 0.14 Monsoon Calibration N185 0.43 0.13 0.68 Dry Calibration N185 0.46 0.78 0.36 Monsoon Validation N185 0.29 0.42 0.70 Dry Validation Teesta River, Singimari Calibration and Validation Node NSE PBAIS R_square .peakError LOG_NSE Season Categoty N62 0.41 4.08 0.43 2626.85 0.44 Monsoon Calibration N62 0.43 15.67 0.46 478.90 0.43 Dry Calibration N62 0.98 3.43 0.98 162.62 0.97 Monsoon Validation N62 0.94 7.41 0.95 40.46 0.55 Dry Validation Atrai River, Proshadpur Calibration and Validation Node NSE PBAIS R_square .peakError Log_NSE Season Categoty N176 0.25 -11.41 0.40 509.36 0.43Monsoon Calibration N176 0.22 9.91 0.30 227.27 -0.20Dry Calibration N176 0.20 -43.69 0.41 -84.35 0.14Monsoon Validation N276 0.62 33.10 0.81 198.31 0.09Dry Validation Verification of waterbalance results (NW-region) Little data available for calibration: suggestions? Source: Bangladesh Integrated Water resources Assessment, 2014 Some flood characteristics (Rajshahi division) Some drought characteristics (Rajshahi division) Source: Bangladesh Integrated Water resources Assessment, 2014 Climate change scenarios (∆ method) Impacts BDP2100 climate change scenarios for NW-region Scenario Base Productive Resilient Moderate Active Main observations: Climate situation 2020 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Climate characteristics Sea level rise cm n/a 10 - 20 20 - 30 15 - 30 40 - 60 10 - 20 20 - 30 15 - 30 40 - 60 1. Much wetter in Temperature rise* ˚C n/a 0.5 1 1.5 2 0.5 1 1.5 2 Monsoon rainfall change % n/a 0 10 15 20 0 10 15 20 monsoon Dry season rainfall change % n/a 0 0 -10 -10 0 0 -10 -10 2. Larger & longer annual Peak discharge change % n/a 5 - 15 10 -20 15 - 30 20 - 40 5 - 15 10 - 20 15 - 30 20 - 40 Low flow discharge change % n/a -5 -15 -15 -30 -10 -25 -20 -40 floods, more extreme Decision support indicators Annual flood damage (infrastructure, housing, etc.) crore BDT 6.4 15% 37% 59% 88% 14% 37% 59% 88% floods Poor households affected by droughts and floods 522 7% 37% 59% 81% 7% 37% 59% 81% 3. Positive for GWL Annual rice crop production (T aman, Boro, Aus) Mtonnes 10.4 -1% -3% -5% -7% 0% -3% -5% -7% Food security for the poor: dietary energy supply calories/day n/a -22% -28% -25% -31% -22% -28% -25% -31% 4. Dry season low river Water system state indicators Total flood extent % of area 29% 8% 13% 21% 28% 8% 12% 21% 28% flow in Atrai basin Extreme flood extent % of area 47% 17% 22% 53% 64% 17% 22% 53% 64% decrease Flood duration days 114 1% 9% 12% 15% 1% 9% 12% 15% Dry season river flow (Atrai Basin) m3/s 25 7% 0% 0% -10% 4% -7% -3% -17% GWL decline per year cm 9 -3% -16% -22% -30% -3% -16% -22% -29% * effect on reference evapotranspiration Impacts BDP2100 climate change scenarios in time and space Impacts of BDP2100 climate change scenarios Main observations: 1. More rainfall -> more runoff 2. Slightly less GW irrigation + more percolation To do: Visualize river inflow/outflow Impacts of climate change on river discharge Impact of