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Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2017

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Manhattan Lodging Index Fourth Quarter 2017 www.pwc.com Manhattan lodging index Fourth quarter 2017 Manhattan lodging overview This Quarter: After ten quarters of continuous RevPAR declines, Manhattan Lodging performance finally turned around in the fourth quarter Overview of 2017. RevPAR increased 1.4 percent, driven entirely by Employment Trends resilient occupancy levels. While supply growth showed signs of deceleration, growth in average daily rate Gross Metro Product and remained elusive. Consumer Price Index Office Market Statistics Looking back through 2017, top line lodging performance in Air Traffic Statistics Manhattan was all about room night demand. Despite an increase in supply of 2.6 percent, lodging demand grew at a 3.7 percent rate, Recent Manhattan Hotel driving a second year of occupancy growth. However, maintaining Transactions pricing power proved challenging in the face of this new supply, Recent and Planned resulting in a 1.6 percent decline in average daily rate (“ADR”). Hotel Openings and Overall, while revenue per available room (“RevPAR”) decreased Closings 0.5 percent, this was a marked improvement from the 2.9 and 2.4 Fourth Quarter percent declines reported in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Performance Manhattan Q4 RevPAR Growth by Month October November December 10% 8.5% 8% 6% 4% 3.2% 3.2% 1.4% 2% 0% -2% -0.7% -4% -6% -8% -10% -8.2% 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017 Source: PwC, based on STR data In Q4, higher-priced hotels in the Luxury class reported quarter, coupled with a relatively flat ADR (up 0.1 sizeable increases in occupancy levels of 5.6 percent, percent). For the year, Upper Manhattan and Lower although ADR remained flat. However, while RevPAR Manhattan increased RevPAR by 1.2 and 0.3 percent, for Luxury hotels increased meaningfully in the respectively, supported entirely by increases in quarter, it grew just 0.7 percent for the year. Upper occupancy. The remaining submarkets recorded Upscale hotels reported a moderate increase in varying decreases in RevPAR. ADR was a consistent occupancy, coupled with modest growth in ADR. For challenge for the Manhattan market, with all five the year, these hotels grew RevPAR by 1.0 percent, the submarkets recording declines in ADR ranging from strongest performance of all of the classes. Upscale and 0.8 to 4.2 percent in 2017. Upper Midscale hotels reported mixed results. Hotels in the Upscale category grew occupancy at the expense Both full-service and limited-service hotels grew of ADR in the quarter, resulting in a tepid increase in RevPAR in Q4, unsurprisingly driven entirely by RevPAR of 0.1 percent. Conversely, hotels in the Upper strength in occupancy. Full-service hotels reported a Midscale category were the only class to report a decrease in ADR of 0.4 percent, while limited-service decrease in occupancy, while also reporting the hotels reported a decline of 0.2 percent. For the year, strongest increase in ADR, at 1.1 percent. For the year, RevPAR for full-service hotels decreased by 0.7 RevPAR for Upscale hotels decreased 2.6 percent, while percent, while limited-service hotels saw an increase of RevPAR for Upper Midscale hotels increased 0.2 0.6 percent. percent. In Q2 and Q3 of 2017, we noted that chain-affiliated In the Q4, four of the five Manhattan submarkets hotels had outperformed against independent hotels, in reported increases in RevPAR, driven largely by a reversal of recent trending. However, in Q4, increases in occupancy. Lower Manhattan performed independent hotels once again outperformed chain- the best, increasing RevPAR by 4.0 percent in the affiliated hotels, growing occupancy by 2.2 percent and quarter, despite a 1.0 percent decline in ADR. Upper ADR by 0.4 percent, for a resulting RevPAR increase of Manhattan was able to increase both occupancy and 2.6 percent. Chain-affiliated hotels were also able to ADR levels, resulting in a 2.9 percent increase in grow occupancy, by 1.5 percent, though ADR decreased RevPAR. Midtown West was the only submarket to slightly, resulting in a RevPAR increase of 1.4 percent. experience a decline in RevPAR for the quarter, with For the year, performance growth metrics for chain- occupancy levels decreasing 0.6 percent and ADR levels affiliated and independent hotels were nearly identical. increasing only marginally, at 0.1 percent. Midtown Occupancy grew 1.0 and 1.1 percent, with ADR East reported mixed results for occupancy and ADR, declining 1.2 and 1.1 percent, respectively. For 2017, though RevPAR increased 2.0 percent. Midtown South RevPAR decreased 0.1 percent for chain-affiliated saw a 1.7 percent increase in occupancy during the hotels and was flat for independent hotels. PwC Manhattan lodging index | Fourth Quarter 2017 2 Manhattan Q4 Performance, 23-Year Trend $400 95% $350 90% 85% $300 80% $250 75% $200 70% Occupancy ADR/RevPAR $150 65% $100 60% $50 55% $0 50% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 ADR RevPAR Occupancy Source: PwC, based on STR data PwC Manhattan lodging index | Fourth Quarter 2017 3 Employment Trends According to the New York State Department of Labor, for the twelve-month period ended December The labor markets in New York City and the State 2017, New York City’s private sector employment improved moderately in the fourth quarter, with increased by 65,200 or 1.7 percent, to 3,936,000. unemployment rates decreasing from the prior quarter and the same period last year. According to During the period, job growth occurred in the New York State Department of Labor, New York educational and health services, which added 23,500 City’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate jobs, professional and business services, which added averaged 4.7 percent in Q4, a decrease of 16,600 jobs, financial activities, which added 14,000 approximately 7.3 percent from the same period last jobs, natural resources, mining and construction, year. New York State’s seasonally-adjusted which added 10,100 jobs, leisure and hospitality, unemployment rate also averaged 4.7 percent during which added 9,4o0 jobs, and other services which the quarter, a decrease of approximately 3.4 percent added 4,700 jobs. from the same period a year ago. Job losses occurred in information, which lost 7,000 The overall US unemployment rate declined from 4.3 jobs, trade, transportation and utilities, which shed percent in the third quarter to 4.1 percent in Q4. 5,700 jobs, and manufacturing, which lost 400 jobs. New York City Unemployment for the 24-Month Period Ended December 2017 300 8.0% 7.0% 250 6.0% 200 5.0% 150 4.0% 3.0% Number Number of People 100 2.0% Unemployed Unemployed (thousands) 50 Unemployment Rate 1.0% 0 0.0% Jul-17 Jul-16 Oct-17 Oct-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jan-16 Sep-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Dec-16 Aug-17 Nov-17 Aug-16 Mar-17 Nov-16 Mar-16 May-17 May-16 Number of People Unemployed Unemployment Rate Source: New York State Department of Labor PwC Manhattan lodging index | Fourth Quarter 2017 4 Gross Metro Product and Consumer government spending, but partially offset by a negative Price Index contribution from private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of As expected, U.S. economic growth decelerated slightly GDP, increased. in Q4. According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. real gross At the local level, the gross metro product is expected domestic product ("GDP") increased at a seasonally- to increase by 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent 2018, adjusted, annualized rate of 2.6 percent, compared to a according to Moody’s Economy.com November 2017 forecast. 3.2 percent increase in the third quarter. This increase was driven by positive contributions from personal New York City's consumer price index ("CPI") consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed increased by an average of 1.7 percent during the fourth investment, exports, residential fixed investment, state quarter, compared to 2.1 percent nationally. and local government spending, and federal Consumer Price Index 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 New York City MSA Inflation Estimates US Inflation Estimates Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics PwC Manhattan lodging index | Fourth Quarter 2017 5 Office Market Statistics During Q4, vacancy in the Downtown submarket increased to 8.2 percent, a decrease of 13.7 percent Office market performance improved slightly from from year-ago levels. Conversely, vacancy in the year-ago levels, while remaining largely static from the Midtown submarket rose to 8.0 percent in Q4, an prior quarter. Overall vacancy rates, at 8.1 percent, increase of 1.3 percent compared to year-ago levels. increased slightly from last quarter but dropped 3.3 percent from year-ago levels, driven by a drop in Gross asking rents in the Downtown submarket vacancy rates in Downtown Manhattan. Gross asking decreased 1.8 percent on a year-over-year basis, to rents decreased slightly from year-ago levels, falling 1.1 $57.41 per square foot. In the Midtown submarket, percent, to $74.36 per square foot. gross asking rents decreased 0.9 percent from Q4 2016, to $80.60 per square foot. Gross Asking Rents and Vacancy Rates $80 10% $70 8% $60 $50 6% $40 $30 4% $20 Vacancy rates (%) 2% Gross Asking Rents ($/SF) $10 $0 0% 2011 2017 2015 2013 2012 2014 2016 2001 2010 2007 2005 2003 2002 2004 2006 2009 2008 2000 Q4 2011 Q4 2017 Q4 2015 Q4 2013 Q4 2012 Q4 2014 Q4 2016 Q4 2010 Q4 2009 Q4 2008 Gross Asking Rents ($/SF) Vacancy Rate (%) Source: PwC, based on CBRE Econometric Advisors data According to a report from Cushman & Wakefield, Green sold the 1.75 million square-foot property to three key lease transactions occurred in the fourth Allianz RE of America for approximately $1.97 billion, quarter.
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