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Us Capital Trends | the Big Picture Q2'17 US CAPITAL TRENDS | THE BIG PICTURE A disconnect between pricing and deal volume colors Q2’17 transaction $109.2b volume much of the activity in 2017 so far. Sales volume fell again Q2’17 YOY for both the quarter and year to date even as prices climbed. -5% volume change This relationship does not necessarily signal a pending collapse in pricing. Volume is falling today as buyers and sellers face Quarterly Transaction Volume different expectations on pricing. It was easy for price Individual Portfolio Entity expectations to align when cap rates were falling and $b the Federal Reserve was being accommodative. Buyers 180 exhibit more caution today given the current uncertainty 160 on the rate environment. 140 120 Current owners though are not as motivated to sell as investors were in the last cycle. Into 2008 and 2009 100 as loans came due and few lenders were active, many 80 investors had no option but to sell. The lending markets 60 are vastly more stable today. 40 There are certain property subtypes where investors 20 do seem to be motivated to sell today, however. This 0 relationship between price and deal volume is explored in more detail on page 4 of this report. Year-Over-Year Change We are approaching a decade since the transaction 75% which took the Equity Office REIT private – the highwater 50% mark of deal activity in 2007. It’s worth looking at the subsequent downward spiral to give some perspective 25% on the fear that the current slide in activity presages a 0% collapse in pricing just like that seen in the last downturn. -25% '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Volume peaked in this cycle six quarters ago in Q4’15. Looking at volume on a 4-quarter trailing basis to control Cap Rates for seasonal variations, volume is now 13% lower than H1'17 Q2'17 that peak. Six quarters after the peak in Q4’07, deal Vol ($b) YOY Vol ($b) YOY volume had already fallen 83%. So the current deal 33.6 -2% 64.6 -2% Office slowdown is nothing like the previous cycle and one Retail 13.7 -28% 32.4 -16% should not fret that prices will follow the same path. Industrial 15.3 10% 30.1 10% Hotel 7.3 -1% 13.5 0% Apartment 35.2 -1% 62.6 -17% Dev Site 4.1 -13% 7.9 -20% Total 109.2 -5% 211.1 -8% Major Metros 39.8 -24% 82.1 -20% In This Issue: We chart differing price and Secondary Mkts 51.4 10% 95.6 -3% deal trends among the sectors and analyze the Tertiary Mkts 14.7 -2% 29.5 0% development site market. The top players, deals and Portfolio 23.3 15% 46.6 -16% markets at midyear are ranked. Single Asset 85.9 -9% 164.6 -6% ©2017 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 1 12-mth trailing cap rates US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE Recent Trends | Q2’17 Deal structures are generating noise around recent trends in sale activity. It is a mistake to assume that the current Cap Rates pace of activity will continue into following quarters. Off Ret Ind Apt Htl Industrial deal volume grew 10% YOY in Q2’17. A 9.0% significant part of that story is the Equinix REIT transaction involving 29 highly-valued Verizon data centers. Another 8.0% such deal is in the pipeline for H2’17 but unless more megadeals come along, deal volume may trend more like the single-digit pace set by the single asset industrial sale 7.0% market in Q2’17. Suburban office activity grew for both the year to date and 6.0% Q2’17 compared with a year earlier. The Q2’17 YOY gain of 22% was the sharpest for any property sector. One 5.0% megadeal was important here as well – the Duke Realty sale of medical office buildings to HTA. Single asset sales were down 7% YOY for the office sector overall. Property Prices Across all sectors there are fewer of these megadeals 20% today than in the past. Megadeals only represent 21% of total deal volume versus the 32% share back in 2015. 15% When such a deal is completed, the volume for the property sectors involved can suddenly paint a picture of 10% a growing market and perhaps make one think that the pricing slowdown underway might reverse. 5% Pricing trends are slowing and not likely to change back 0% to the double-digit pace set in 2016 for some sectors. Cap rates are at record-low levels and unlikely to -5% compress further with the Federal Reserve becoming less '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 accommodative. Additionally, income trends are unlikely YOY change in RCA CPPI, Q2’17 prelim to climb at double-digit rates with the current modest pace of economic growth. The property sector with the most challenging trend on pricing is the retail sector. The RCA CPPITM was unchanged from a year earlier in Q2’17, according to preliminary figures, but had fallen at a 3% YOY pace in Q1’17. The office and apartment sectors each posted something of a rebound in prices in Q2’17, quickening to 10% YOY gains from single-digit gains in Q1’17. Development sites are the property sector with the sharpest pullback in deal volume for the year to date, with sales down 20% from H1’16. As price growth has been cooling from a double-digit pace, an investor’s motivation to build rather than buy will cool as well. As explored on page 5 of this report, there are other financing and cost issues to consider. Q2’17 | ©2017 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 2 US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE Recent Trends | Sector Momentum The disconnect between prices does not present a uniform On the opposite end of the scale, the suburban office pattern across property sectors. There are unique stories of market has posted both strong growth in deal volume changes in buyer and seller preferences across every sector as well as steady price growth. The combination might in H1’17. suggest that investors are rediscovering the opportunities in this sector but portfolio activity is somewhat clouding The normal view is that deal volume and prices move this view. There are higher yield opportunities in this sector, together, but this relationship has not held for the last two however, and cyclic recoveries are underway in large metro years. If prices and deal volume moved together, one would areas with a heavy weighting to suburban office space. see all of the bubbles in the chart below lining up either in the top right quadrant or in the bottom left. The garden apartment, CBD office and hotel sectors are in the phase where prices grow as volumes fall. This pattern The retail sector is stuck between price growth and price suggests an impasse where buyers are pulling back from declines. The H1’17 volume declines were at the same pace their interest in the sectors at current prices while owners as those in H1’16, and the combination with falling prices are not adjusting their price expectations. today suggests that buyers are pulling back on pricing expectations while current owners hold price expectations that are too high. Mid/highrise apartment assets are facing a similar challenge. Sector Momentum 20% 6MM CBD Office 15% NMM Hotel NMM Apartment 10% 6MM Apartment NMM Suburban Office 6MM Suburban Office 6MM Industrial Label 6MM Hotel 6MM Apartment 5% NMM Industrial 6MM CBD Office NMM CBD Office 6MM Hotel 6MM Retail 6MM Industrial 0% 6MM Retail RCA CPPI Change H1‘17 vs H1’16 (Q2’17 prelim) (Q2’17 RCA vs H1’16 CPPI Change H1‘17 NMM Retail 6MM Suburban Office NMM Apartment -5% NMM CBD Office -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Volume Change H1‘17 vs H1’16 Q2’17 | ©2017 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed or warranted; subject to future revision. 3 US CAPITAL TRENDS | BIG PICTURE Top Markets Los Angeles is now the largest commercial real estate impact of oil price declines on Texas. Suburban office investment market and Manhattan has slipped to the #2 sales were the biggest driver of growth in Houston. position. Capital has migrated away from higher-priced locations helping several markets claw their way up our Charlotte moved up the most in the rankings from position ranking of the top markets. #29 in 2016 to #16 for H1’17. The office, industrial and hotel sectors boosted growth in Charlotte. Dallas recorded the strongest level of deal volume ever seen in the first half of a year for this market. The only Deal volume in Manhattan was only $1.5b higher than that sectors which did not contribute to this growth were for Dallas in H1’17. The other way to look at the current development sites, retail and CBD offices. The CBD office position of Manhattan is that deal volume here was only sector stands out in Dallas with no sales recorded in $1.9b behind Los Angeles. The sale of one or two office H1’17. This performance by Dallas is spectacular given that buildings in Manhattan could easily make up this ground the market was, so to speak, fighting with one sector tied in the second half.
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