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COVID-19 Exposes Italy's Vulnerability to US-China Antagonism

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COVID-19 Exposes Italy's Vulnerability to US-China Antagonism COVID-19 Exposes Italy’s Vulnerability to US-China Antagonism © 2020 IAI by Riccardo Alcaro Sars-Cov-2, the coronavirus that caused its vulnerability to systemic dynamics the COVID-19 pandemic, has put Italy’s the pandemic is likely to exacerbate, ISSN 2532-6570 healthcare system under severe strain most notably the US-China rivalry. and indirectly plunged the economy into a massive recession, as most Both the US and China seem to see the industrial and commercial activities COVID-19 crisis through the lenses have come to a standstill following the of geopolitical competition. A desire enactment of a national lockdown.1 to repair its international reputation and gain influence underlies China’s As it struggles to contain the spread offer of medical equipment and of the virus while trying to keep sanitary know-how to countries hit the economy afloat, the Italian by the contagion – the so-called government will also have to navigate “mask diplomacy”.3 The Communist the rough seas of a more competitive Party’s propaganda machine has gone international system. Weathering the the extra mile to present China as a agitated waters will not be easy, as solidary and responsible country, while the severity of the outbreak in Italy (at also indulging in conspiracy theories the time of writing, the third hardest- claiming the virus did not originate hit country in the world in terms of from Wuhan.4 fatalities and infections)2 has exposed updates coronavirus cases: https://www. worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries. 1 Trading Economics estimates a fall in the 3 Brian Wong, “China’s Mask Diplomacy”, in The Italian GDP by 18 and 10.3 per cent in Q2 and Q3, Diplomat, 25 March 2020, https://thediplomat. respectively. See Trading Economics, Italy Forecasts, com/2020/03/chinas-mask-diplomacy. https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/forecast. 4 Steven Lee Meyers, “China Spins Tale That the 2 As of 7 May 2020, confirmed cases of Covid-19- U.S. Army Started the Coronavirus Epidemic”, infected people amounted to 215,858, with 29,958 in The New York Times, 13 March 2020, https:// deaths. The Worldometer website regularly www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/world/asia/ Riccardo Alcaro is Research Coordinator and Head of the Global Actors Programme of the IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 33 - MAY 2020 20 | 33 - MAY IAI COMMENTARIES Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI). 1 COVID-19 Exposes Italy’s Vulnerability to US-China Antagonism The US has responded by relentlessly Italy rapidly became a main target reminding the world of China’s of China’s mask diplomacy.7 Beijing concealment of critical information sent medical equipment and teams of during the early weeks of the contagion health experts to virus-infested Italian and increasingly hinting that Chinese regions, companies made donations labs may be the ultimate origin of the (state-owned enterprises targeted virus.5 US President Donald Trump has the port cities of Genoa and Trieste, a further reason to keep bashing China, both critical to the BRI), the Chinese © 2020 IAI which he sees as politically expedient diaspora mobilised to provide further as he enters a re-election campaign assistance and the Chinese embassy that COVID-19 has made rather more in Rome engaged in a sustained media unpredictable than anticipated. campaign celebrating the new depth of It is reasonable to expect that the the bilateral relationship. undercurrents for conflict between China and the US will gather steam in The Italian media made a lot of fuss areas where China’s influence may be about Chinese assistance, often failing felt the most, such as Africa, the Middle to mention that part of the aid was ISSN 2532-6570 East and ultimately Europe too. In this actually the result of regular commercial regard, Italy is an exemplary case. transactions.8 Public opinion apparently went along. If a sensational Italy has occupied a special place in poll released in April is accurate, over China’s system of international relations fifty percent of Italians consider China since it became the first G7 member a “friend” – a jaw-dropping 42 point last year to sign a memorandum of leap on a year-to-year basis. Just 17 per understanding6 in support of the cent of Italians think as much of the US. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the And China is apparently ahead of the policy framework under which China US (36 to 30 per cent) in the race for the promotes infrastructure development global power Italy should be allied to.9 in a number of countries along the land and maritime trade routes between Eventually the US administration Asia and Europe. Unsurprisingly, took notice. In April President Trump personally promised Italian Prime coronavirus-china-conspiracy-theory.html. Minister Giuseppe Conte one hundred 5 Jacqueline Alemany, “President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Continue to 7 Push Unsubstantiated Wuhan Lab Theory on Francesca Ghiretti, “China, Italy and Novel Coronavirus Origins”, in PowerPost, 4 COVID-19: Benevolent Support or Strategic May 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ Surge?”, in IAI Commentaries, No. 20|14 (March news/powerpost/paloma/powerup/2020/05/04 2020), https://www.iai.it/en/node/11436. /5eaf5070602ff15fb00238b8. 8 Giulia Pompili, “Ma quali aiuti della Cina 6 Memorandum of Understanding between contro il virus, è tutta roba che compriamo”, in the Government of the Italian Republic and the Il Foglio, 12 March 2020, https://www.ilfoglio. Government of the People’s Republic of China it/cronache/2020/03/12/news/ma-quali-aiuti- on Cooperation within the Framework of the della-cina-contro-il-virus-e-tutta-roba-che- Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century compriamo-306324. Maritime Silk Road Initiative, 22 March 21019, 9 The European Post, “Italy, SWG poll, 20 March-12 http://www.governo.it/sites/governo.it/files/ April”, Twitter post, 17 April 2020, https://twitter. Memorandum_Italia-Cina_EN.pdf. com/theEUpost/status/1251064470782304259. IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 33 - MAY 2020 20 | 33 - MAY IAI COMMENTARIES 2 COVID-19 Exposes Italy’s Vulnerability to US-China Antagonism million dollars in aid,10 a message figures within the senior ruling Secretary of State Mike Pompeo further coalition party, the anti-establishment emphasised in an interview with Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S), see China’s leading daily Corriere della Sera.11 overture as a unique opportunity to While US pledges have yet to fully attract investment inflows and improve materialise (part of the aid is coming Italy’s international status. Luigi Di through assistance provided by US Maio, former chairman of the M5S forces based in Italy), the fact that the and now foreign minister, has claimed © 2020 IAI Trump administration felt the need to that China’s aid would not have come produce a presidential memorandum so promptly had the M5S not been so on assistance to Italy12 attests to the foresighted to sign the MoU in support mounting concern that China may be of the BRI back in 2019.13 Alessandro winning the fight for the hearts and Di Battista, an influential foreign minds of Italians. policy voice in the M5S, has gone even further, insisting that Italy should In theory, the US’s counter-offensive leverage its special relationship with provides Italy with advantages China to extract concessions from its ISSN 2532-6570 both practically (the actual aid) and international partners, especially in the strategically, as US open support lends EU.14 greater weight to Italy’s efforts to check China’s clout while safeguarding This benevolent view of China is hardly the chance to profit from Chinese shared by the junior member of the investment. In practice, things are coalition, the centre-left Democratic more complicated. Party (PD), which is more open to express concerns about the costs of a A first order of problems relates to policy of proximity to China, ranging Italy’s domestic politics. Leading from a loss of credibility among Italy’s allies to the risk of Chinese companies acquiring key assets such 10 White House, Remarks by President Trump and Members of the Coronavirus Task Force in as high-tech firms or infrastructure a Press Briefing, 30 March 2020, https://www. facilities, opaque financial deals and whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks- greater exposure to propaganda and president-trump-members-coronavirus-task- force-press-briefing. disinformation operations. The PD has 11 Giuseppe Sarcina, “Coronavirus, intervista therefore emphasised the need for Italy a Mike Pompeo: ‘Per l’Italia siamo quelli che fanno e faranno di più. Collaboriamo con la Cina, ma esigiamo trasparenza’”, in Corriere 13 Luca De Carolis, “Di Maio: ‘Le mascherine della Sera, 9 April 2020, https://www.corriere. arriveranno. Anche la diplomazia salva it/esteri/20_aprile_09/coronavirus-intervista- vite’”, in Il Fatto Quotidiano, 24 March 2020, mike-pompeo-per-l-italia-siamo-quelli-che- https://www.esteri.it/mae/it/sala_stampa/ fanno-faranno-piu-collaboriamo-la-cina- interviste/2020/03/di-maio-emergenza- ma-esigiamo-trasparenza-2389cfa6-79c7-11e- mascherine-risolta-anche-la-diplomazia- a-afb4-c5f49a569528.shtml. salva-vite-il-fatto-quotidiano.html. 12 Memorandum on Providing COVID-19 14 Alessandro Di Battista, “L’Italia deve dire no al Mes. Assistance to the Italian Republic, 10 April 2020, Senza di noi la Ue si scioglie”, in Il Fatto Quotidiano, https://it.usembassy.gov/memorandum-on- 19 April 2020, https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/in- providing-covid-19-assistance-to-the-italian- edicola/articoli/2020/04/19/litalia-deve-dire-no- republic. al-mes-senza-di-noi-la-ue-si-scioglie. IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 33 - MAY 2020 20 | 33 - MAY IAI COMMENTARIES 3 COVID-19 Exposes Italy’s Vulnerability to US-China Antagonism to strengthen its traditional alliances and when the crisis subsides, however, and especially its commitment to the the debate about China is likely to flare EU, not least because that would put it up again.
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