NORTHERN AND YORKE November 2011 DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT

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CONTENTS

PART 1: NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT IN SUMMARY 5 Water source mix 8 Demand‐supply projections 9 Key findings 10

PART 2: CURRENT RESOURCES 14 Regional overview 14 Water resources 17 River Murray water 18 Prescribed water resources 20 Non‐prescribed groundwater resources 21 Non‐prescribed surface water and watercourse water resources26 Alternative water sources 26

PART 3: FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY 29 Demands 29 Population growth 29 Livestock demand 30 Viticulture demand 30 Mining demand 31 Supplies 31 Climate change 31 Water source mix 32 Demand and supply assumptions 34 Demand and supply projections 43 Projection 1: All water demands and supplies 43 Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply 44

PART 4: FINDINGS 46 Demand‐supply projections 46 Population growth 47 Climate change 47 Water quality 49

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Isolated demand‐supply issues 50 Land use change 50

PART 5: STAYING ON TRACK – ANNUAL REVIEW 51 DEMAND and supply statement projections 51 Review of regional demand and supply statements 51

PART 6: GLOSSARY 53 PART 7: ABBREVIATIONS 55 PART 8: BIBLIOGRAPHY 56

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FOREWORD

I am pleased to present the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement, a key commitment in Water for Good – the State Government’s plan to ensure our water future to 2050. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is the second of eight Regional Demand and Supply Statements. These statements are high level strategic documents that project the available water supply and demands for a region and any possible future demand‐supply imbalance. The projections in these statements will then be used to guide the timing and nature of future demand management or supply augmentation options, when needed. The projections in the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement suggest that demand is not likely to exceed supply for drinking quality water until 2044/45 under a worst‐ case scenario and not prior to 2050 under a best‐case scenario. These projections are based on the best available information to date. Should new information become available, such as the updated Resources and Energy Sector Infrastructure Council’s (2011) Infrastructure Demand Study, it will be incorporated during the annual review, and the demand‐supply projections will be adjusted as necessary. This Statement will complement other water planning processes such as water allocation plans for prescribed water resource areas and SA Water’s Long Term Plans. Five years prior to when demand has been projected to exceed supply, an Independent Planning Process will be initiated. It is through this process that demand management or supply augmentation options to address the shortfall will be considered. At this stage, an Independent Planning Process is not required for the Northern and Yorke region until 2039/40 at the earliest. Importantly, we will continue to monitor the situation on an annual basis to ensure we are responding to any significant change. While the quantum of drinking quality water is projected to meet demand out to 2044/45, it was identified that there were concerns around the aesthetic characteristics of some communities’ mains water. Through Water for Good, the State Government has already committed to investigate the viability of constructing groundwater desalination plants for regional townships where water quality (i.e. salinity) has been identified as an issue. Water security remains a challenge for South Australia but I am confident that the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement provides critical information to help us ensure the Northern and Yorke Region’s water supply continues to support its economy, lifestyle and environment.

The Hon Paul Caica MP Minister for Water and the River Murray

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PART 1: NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT IN SUMMARY

South Australia has a vast land area with diverse landscapes and climatic conditions that influence the quantity and source of available water. Beyond the city of Adelaide, the population is scattered widely, with some regional centres, towns and communities without a local and reliable natural water source. In order to determine the best ways to secure the State’s water resources, it is important to first take stock of the resources available, the current and projected future demands on them and the likely timing of any potential demand‐supply imbalance. It is also important to recognise that the water industry in South Australia is changing. To achieve a more dynamic water sector, the State Government’s water security plan, Water for Good, commits to new water industry legislation that will better reflect the changing environment. The purpose of the new legislation is to provide a framework to support a contemporary and developing water industry by:  providing for an integrated approach to water demand and supply planning; and  providing for the regulation of the water industry. A changing climate, drought, economic development initiatives, and expected population growth have driven this change in what has typically been a relatively stable service sector. South Australia is also a signatory to the National Water Initiative (NWI), Australia’s blueprint for water reform. The NWI promotes a more cohesive national approach to the way Australia manages, measures, plans for, prices and trades water. Within this context, the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is a Water for Good initiative which aims to provide a long‐term (40 years) overview of water supply and demand in the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management (NRM) region of South Australia. It applies an adaptive management process to outline the state and condition of all water resources in the region for drinking nand no ‐drinking water, lists major demands on these water resources, and identifies likely timeframes for any possible future demand‐ supply imbalance. Water for Good states that the Minister for Water and the River Murray will establish an Independent Planning Process if demand‐supply projections indicate a gap is likely to exist in the foreseeable future. Therefore, this statement will be used to guide planning for the timing and nature of future demand management or supply options, ensuring that long‐term solutions are based on a thorough understanding of the state of local resources, the demand for them, and likely future pressures, including the impacts of climate change. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement will be reviewed annually, checking the status of the resources and the assumptions on which the statement is based.

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The statement will also be comprehensively reviewed and updated every five years, unless such a review is triggered earlier based on the findings of the annual review process. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement builds on, and does not duplicate, other water planning processes. Other key plans that link to the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement include:  South Australia’s Strategic Plan;  Water for Good;  Strategic Infrastructure Plan for South Australia;  State Natural Resources Management Plan;  SA Water’s Long Term Plan for Yorke Peninsula;  Water Allocation Plan for the Clare Valley Prescribed Water Resources Area;  Water Allocation Plan for the River Murray Prescribed Watercourse;  Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Plan;  Mid North Region Plan;  Far North Region Plan;  Yorke Peninsula Regional Land Use Framework; and  Central Local Government Region of South Australia Water Supply Investigation. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is based on the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management (NRM) region, as shown in Figure 1.

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The Northern and Yorke NRM region incorporates 44 urban centres or rural townships, including Port Augusta, Port Pirie, Clare, Kadina, Moonta, Wallaroo and Peterborough. SA Water mains distribution systems include the Morgan‐Whyalla system, Swan Reach‐ Paskeville system, Warooka system, Melrose system, Orroroo system, Wilmington system, Quorn system and Hawker system. The Morgan‐Whyalla and Swan Reach‐Paskeville systems supply River Murray water and the remaining systems supply groundwater water from various aquifers. Water for the environment is essential for ecosystem and waterway health and ultimately the resources’ productivity. The environmental water provisions of the Northern and Yorke region are set out in water allocations plans for the Clare Valley and Baroota Prescribed Water Resources Areas (PWRA), and the Northern and Yorke NRM Plan. As such, environmental water provisions are not explicitly included in this statement. When preparing water allocation plans one of the issues considered is the quantity and quality of water needed for dependent ecosystems, and the time periods during which those ecosystems need water. The appropriate proportions are then set aside to meet these demands and the remaining proportion is available for allocation. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement only includes supply from the PWRAs available for allocation, meaning the remainder is available to the environment. Further, the Northern and Yorke NRM Plan contains a viable water resources target that aims to have viable water resources that support environmental, social and economic needs. WATER SOURCE MIX

Figure 2 (below) outlines the current and projected future water sources in the Northern and Yorke region under possible scenarios for both low and high greenhouse gas emissions. As can be seen, the Northern and Yorke region is heavily reliant on the River Murray for their water supply, with surface water providing the second largest volume of water, followed by groundwater resources. The current (2010) combined total drinking and non‐drinking quality water sources of the region are 53.6 GL. Based on the assumptions outlined in Table 8, the supply volume is not projected to change by 2025 under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, remaining at approximately 53.6 GL, however it is projected to decrease slightly to 53.3 GL by 2025 under the high emissions scenario. Water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA is projected to slightly decrease by 2025 as a consequence of climate change, under the low emissions scenario. These losses are projected to be offset by the volume of recycled water available in 2025, with the total available supply therefore remaining unchanged. While the projected volume of recycled water also increases out to 2025 under the high climate change scenario, the projected reduction in water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA as a consequence of climate change is greater, which results in the slight decrease in water available in 2025 under the high emissions scenario. By 2050, the demand‐supply projections suggest that the total water supply will decrease slightly to approximately 52.7 GL under the low climate change scenario and 51.9 GL under

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 8 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER the high climate change scenario because of an assumed decrease in the amount of water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA. Figure 2: Northern and Yorke’s water sources for drinking and non‐drinking purposes

DEMAND‐SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Two different demand‐supply projections are considered in this statement under high and low population growth and climate change scenarios:  Projection 1: All water demands and supplies; and  Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply. The first projection refers to drinking and non‐drinking quality water supplies and demand for water for all human purposes such as domestic use, stock use, irrigation, industrial, commercial etc. Demand from water dependent ecosystems is incorporated as previously described on page 8. Table 1 outlines the impact on demand and supply for both projections under scenarios for both high and low population growth and climate change.

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Table 1: Demand‐supply projections

Projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Scenario Projected outcome

High population growth/high climate Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to change 2050.

High population growth/low climate Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to change 2050.

Low population growth/high climate Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to change 2050.

Low population growth/low climate Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to change 2050.

Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Scenario Projected outcome

High population growth Demand is projected to exceed supply in 2044/45.

Low population growth Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050.

Note: The projected outcomes are dependent on all of the assumptions outlined in Table 8 occurring. KEY FINDINGS

The River Murray is the major water source in the region, currently 31.8 GL (59% of total water resources). The Commonwealth Water Amendment Act 2008 (Cth) outlines that South Australian entitlement holders have the right to divert 724.1 GL/a of water from the River Murray for consumptive purposes. This includes SA Water’s 50 GL/a licence for country town water supply purposes and their five‐year rolling licence of 650 GL for metropolitan Adelaide. The Northern and Yorke region receives most of their River Murray water from the country town water licence, with a smaller portion from the metropolitan Adelaide licence. At present, the Murray‐Darling Basin Authority is developing the Basin Plan, which, among other matters, will set sustainable diversion limits on water resource extraction from the Murray‐Darling Basin. This may result in sustainable diversion limits that are lower than current diversions. The Commonwealth Government has committed to bridge the gap between new sustainable diversion limits in the plan and current diversions through water purchase from willing sellers and investment in water saving infrastructure. This will minimise any impacts on water entitlement holders. The South Australian Government will

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 10 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER consider the implications for South Australian diversions from the River Murray in responding to the Basin Plan. The second biggest source of water is from surface water (currently 12 GL). Although the current climate change science undertaken in the Northern and Yorke region has focussed on the Clare Valley and Baroota PWRAs, it is reasonable to assume that we will also see a decrease to runoff and recharge of other water resources throughout the Northern and Yorke region as a result of climate change. Therefore, it is likely that there will be a greater reduction in the volume of surface water available in the region over time. The next largest source of water is groundwater resources (currently 5.5 GL). As already mentioned, climate change is projected to reduce the runoff and recharge to the water resources of the Clare Valley and Baroota PWRAs and is likely to also reduce recharge to other groundwater resources in the region. Climate change will reduce runoff and recharge to the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA as outlined in the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region (2011). Based on modelling, Table 2a and 2b (below) outline the projected impacts these reductions in runoff and recharge may have on the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA, under the low and high climate change scenarios. Table 2a: Projected impact of climate change on the Clare Valley PWRA

Water Resource Allocated Projected Projected Projected water in allocation in allocation in range of 2010 (ML) 2050 – under 2050 – under reduction in low climate high climate runoff or change change recharge by scenario (ML) scenario (ML) 2050 (ML)

Clare Valley PWRA – surface 1338 963 819 375 – 519 water

Clare Valley PWRA – watercourse 670 482 410 188 – 260 water

Clare Valley PWRA – 2205 1676 1411 529 – 794 groundwater

Note: The data in this table is based on allocations reducing proportionally to catchment yield.

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Table 2b: Projected impact of climate change on the Baroota PWRA

Water Resource Estimated Projected Projected Projected sustainable sustainable sustainable range of yield in 2010 yield in 2050 – yield in 2050 – reduction in (ML) under low under high runoff or climate climate recharge by change change 2050 (ML) scenario (ML) scenario (ML)

Baroota PWRA – surface water 185 170 155 15 – 30

Baroota PWRA ‐ groundwater 1500 1140 960 360 – 540

Note: The data in this table is based on the sustainable yield reducing proportionally to catchment yield. It is projected that the major increase in demand in the Northern and Yorke region will come from population growth, closely followed by demand from livestock. The projections suggest that demand will increase as a result of population growth within the range of 1.2 and 3.2 GL by 2050. It is projected that the major population growth within the Northern and Yorke Region will be due to gains from retirement migration (South Australian Government, 2010). It is not expected that there will be major population growth within the Northern and Yorke Region due to mining. The majority of population growth due to mining is projected to occur outside this region in Roxby Downs, due to the planned Olympic Dam expansion (South Australian Government, 2010). Demand from livestock is projected to increase by approximately 2 GL by 2050. South Australia’s Strategic Plan contains targets for exploration, production and processing in the mining sector that will drive significant growth over the next 40 years. The 2009 Resources and Energy Sector Infrastructure Council (RESIC) Infrastructure Demand Study shows there are currently no mines either in operation or advanced stages of exploration within the Northern and Yorke region. Although there is interest in mining development in the Northern and Yorke region, no demand from the mining industry has been factored into these projections at this stage. An updated RESIC Infrastructure Demand Study is due for imminent release. Preliminary data indicates that there is a likelihood of there being up to two mining projects in the Northern and Yorke region. These projects are currently in feasibility stage and as such their water requirements are difficult to define at this time. There are also prospective projects that are currently in early exploration. It is anticipated that these projects may seek their water from a variety of sources. The information arising from this study will be incorporated during the annual review of the Statement and the projections will be adjusted as required. There is community concern about the quality of water supplied from some groundwater resources to some of the townships in the mid north section of the Northern and Yorke region. The concern centres on the aesthetic quality of the water, namely the taste of the water, and how the quality of the water is damaging household pipes and appliances.

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There are water supply shortages for some townships during peak periods within SA Water’s Upper Paskeville Water Supply System (WSS) and Warooka WSS in the Yorke Peninsula area. To address these issues, SA Water is investigating options to:  Augment the Warren‐Bundaleer junction to increase supply through the junction  Connect the Warooka WSS to the Upper Paskeville WSS. SA Water will continue to monitor the system for trends in demand and will implement the infrastructure upgrades when required.

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PART 2: CURRENT RESOURCES

REGIONAL OVERVIEW

The region encompassed by the Northern and Yorke NRM Board covers a land area of more than 34,500 km2 and supports approximately 83,000 people. The majority of the population lives in the two northern cities of Port Augusta and Port Pirie (30%) and the key regional centres of Clare, Kadina, Moonta, Wallaroo and Peterborough (17%). The balance live in smaller towns (24%) or rural localities (29%) (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). Table 3: Local government areas and populations of the Northern and Yorke region

Council Area Population (2006 Census)

District Council of Barunga West 2546

Clare and Gilbert Valleys Council 8143

District Council of the Copper Coast 11446

The Flinders Ranges Council 1730

District Council of Mount Remarkable 2842

Northern Areas Council 4650

District Council of Orroroo Carrieton 935

District Council of Peterborough 1904

Port Augusta City Council 13874

Port Pirie Regional Council 17142

Wakefield Regional Council 6372

District Council of Yorke Peninsula 11190

The predominant industries in the region are agriculture, forestry, fishing and aquaculture, and manufacturing. The agriculture, forestry and fishing industries contribute approximately $357.5m to the Northern and Yorke region’s gross regional product (2006‐07) (Department of Trade and Economic Development, 2009).

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Almost 80% of the region’s land is dedicated to agriculture, with large‐scale production of cereal crops, predominantly wheat and barley, together with livestock and viticulture (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). There are two major forest reserves in the region covering approximately 7000 hectares. Of this, 3252 hectares is Gazetted as Native Forest Reserve for conservation purposes and the balance is predominantly commercial pine plantations. There is some mining activity at Mintaro and on the eastern shore of Gulf St Vincent, with major processing operations of heavy metals such as zinc, lead, copper, silver and gold at the Nyrstar smelter in Port Pirie. Also, the Yorke Peninsula is a popular recreational destination for South Australians (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). The climatic characteristics of the region are its mild winters and hot summers. Rain falls predominantly in the winter months, but conditions vary over the region with differences in latitude and altitude. The Clare Valley, central Yorke Peninsula and the Southern Flinders receive the most rain within the region, with long‐term annual averages of 637 mm in Clare, 503 mm in Maitland, 350 mm in Port Pirie and 311 mm in Hawker (SILO Patched Point Dataset, Jeffery et al., 2001). Research by the CSIRO (2008 and 2009) and Heneker and Cresswell (2010) have identified that over the past 20 years there has been a decline in rainfall across south eastern Australia, including the Murray‐Darling Basin, the Mount Lofty Ranges and in south‐west Western Australia. Figures 3 and 4 wsho that there has also been a declining trend in rainfall and an increase in the average annual maximum temperature over the past 20 years in the Northern and Yorke region. The townships shown in Figures 3 and 4 were selected to provide a climatic cross‐section of the Northern and Yorke region. It is important to note that annual rainfall is highly variable and it can be difficult to detect long term trends over shorter periods (even one or two decades) amongst this annual variability.

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Figure 3: Annual rainfall data for the townships of Clare, Maitland, Port Pirie and Hawker for the period 1991‐2010 (SILO Patched Point Dataset, Jeffery et al., 2001)

Figure 4: Average annual maximum temperature data for the townships of Clare, Maitland, Port Pirie and Hawker for the period 1991‐2010 (SILO Patched Point Dataset, Jeffery et al., 2001)

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WATER RESOURCES

Water is a critical input to the Northern and Yorke NRM Region’s economic production and for its environment. The quality of groundwater in many areas is sufficiently saline to limit its suitability for many economic purposes without costly treatment. The region relies on water supplies from three key sources:  groundwater;  surface water and watercourse water; and  imported water from the River Murray. Figure 5 shows the majority of the region’s water is currently supplied from the River Murray. The second largest water source in the region is surface water captured in farm dams. The third largest water source in the region is groundwater. It is important to note that these resources have a broad spatial distribution (see Figure 1) throughout the region and there are currently infrastructure limitations which restrict the ability to distribute these resources further. Figure 5: Northern and Yorke water supplies

Figure 6 shows that Northern and Yorke’s current water use (drinking and non‐drinking quality water) is spread quite evenly across four water uses – stock (dairy cattle, meat cattle and sheep), non‐residential (e.g. industrial, commercial and institutional), residential and irrigation (rural irrigation, irrigation of public open spaces, dust suppression and road construction). There is a very small volume set aside for stand‐by water supplies.

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Figure 6: Northern and Yorke’s current water use from drinking and non‐drinking quality supplies

Figure 7 compares residential and non‐residential use of drinking‐quality water from a selection of townships across the Northern and Yorke region. It shows that the majority of drinking‐quality water used in the industrial townships of Port Augusta and Port Pirie is for non‐residential purposes. In other townships the majority of drinking‐quality water is used for residential purposes. Figure 7: 2009‐2010 drinking‐quality water use for the Port Augusta, Kadina, Clare, Port Pirie, Balaklava, Crystal Brook Maitland and Jamestown townships (2009‐2010 SA Water data)

River Murray water Water from the River Murray is used throughout South Australia for irrigation, industrial, commercial, recreational, stock and domestic and urban water supplies, as well as for the environment. The Water Amendment Act 2008 (Cth) outlines that South Australian entitlement holders have the right to divert 724.1 GL/a of water from the River Murray for

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 18 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER consumptive purposes. This includes SA Water’s 50 GL/a for country town water supply purposes and their five‐year rolling licence of 650 GL for metropolitan Adelaide. The Northern and Yorke region receives most of their River Murray water from the country town water licence, with a smaller portion from the metropolitan eAdelaid licence. At present, the Murray‐Darling Basin Authority is developing the Basin Plan, which, among other matters, will set sustainable diversion limits on water resource extraction from the Murray‐Darling Basin. This may result in sustainable diversion limits that are lower than current diversions. The Commonwealth Government has committed to bridge the gap between new sustainable diversion limits in the Basin Plan and current diversions through water purchase from willing sellers and investment in water saving infrastructure. This will minimise any impacts on water entitlement holders. The South Australian Government will consider the implications for South Australian diversions from the River Murray in responding to the development of the Basin Plan. SA Water operates approximately 8,000 km of water supply mains in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region. Currently 59% (31.8 GL) of the region’s water supply is imported from the River Murray via the Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline and the Swan Reach‐Paskeville pipeline. The Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline has an estimated physical capacity to distribute 25.6 GL/a of River Murray water into the Northern and Yorke region. Based on the current proportional use of the existing metropolitan and country River Murray licences, which may vary in the future depending on demand from other areas, the current estimated resource capacity of 26.2 GL/a exceeds the estimated distribution capability. The estimated physical capacity of the Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline incorporates the capacity of the Clare Valley Water Supply Scheme (CVWSS). In 2004, SA Water constructed the CVWSS in order to meet three main objectives: 1. provide reticulated water to townships within the Clare Valley – Leasingham, Mintaro, Penwortham, Sevenhills and Watervale; 2. transfer water from the Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline to the Swan Reach‐Paskeville pipeline; and 3. provide irrigation water for customers in the Clare Valley region. The capacity of the CVWLSS is 7 GL/a, of which 3.5 GL/a is available to irrigators. The remainder is available to supply township demand within the Clare Valley and to provide transfer flow into the Swan Reach‐Paskeville pipeline system. The water provided for irrigation purposes through the CVWSS is a combination of water sourced through the Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline resource which is licensed to SA Water and third party transportation per irrigator licences. The reported application of River Murray water increased from 779ML in 2006/07 to 1012ML in 2008/09 (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2009). In addition to the Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline, the Swan Reach‐Paskeville pipeline has an estimated physical capacity to distribute 6.2 GL/a of River Murray water to the Northern and Yorke region. Based on the current proportional use of the existing metropolitan and country River Murray licences, which may vary in the future depending on demand from other areas, the estimated resource capacity is 5.6 GL/a.

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Prescribed water resources There are two prescribed water resources areas (PWRA) in the Northern and Yorke region – the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA. A description of prescription and prescribed water resources is provided in the glossary.

Clare Valley PWRA The water resources managed under the water allocation plan for the Clare Valley PWRA include surface water, watercourse water and groundwater resources. The total licensed water available, as of 2009‐2010, from the Clare Valley PWRA is approximately 4.2 GL/a, with total licensed usage for 2007‐08, 2008‐09 and 2009‐10 estimated at approximately 2.2 GL/a, 2.3 GL/a and 2.0 GL/a respectively. Table 4: 2009‐2010 Clare Valley PWRA licensed water available and licensed water used (data sourced from the Department for Water)

Water source 2009‐2010 2007‐2008 2008‐2009 2009‐2010 Licensed water Licensed Licensed Licensed water allocations (ML) water usage water usage usage (ML) (ML) (ML)

Surface Water 1338 801 1058 712

Watercourse Water 670 45 197 318

Groundwater 2205 1397 1021 958

Total 4213 2243 2276 1988

After a prolonged period of declining groundwater levels in the Clare Valley PWRA caused by below average rainfall, groundwater level trends over the past three years are showing some recovery in response to recent wet years for the higher rainfall area (i.e. areas with rainfall greater than 600 mm/a). Outside this area, water levels have shown little or no response to the recent higher rainfall and levels remain at historical lows (South Australian Government, 2009‐10a). Groundwater salinity trends appear to be reflective of rainfall and water level trends. A decrease in salinity has been observed within the 600 mm isohyet, whilst outside of this area, groundwater salinity increases are evident especially near the Auburn and Mintaro townships and in the Armagh and Stanley Flat sub‐catchments. The largest rises in salinity occur to the north‐east of Auburn (South Australian Government, 2009‐10a). Whilst application of imported River Murray water within ethe Clar Valley PWRA carries a risk of salinisation of groundwater, there does not appear to be any correlation between the observed rising salinity trends and application of this imported water (South Australian Government, 2009‐10a).

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Baroota PWRA The Baroota PWRA was prescribed in 2008 due to concern about the ability of surface water runoff to supply the Baroota Reservoir, while protecting watercourses and dependent ecosystems through adequate watercourse flow (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2010). A water allocation plan will also address concerns about falling groundwater levels, increases in groundwater salinity and acknowledge the connectivity between groundwater and surface water (NY NRM Board, 2010). The water allocation plan for the Baroota PWRA is currently under development. Recent internal investigations by SA Water of inflows to the Baroota Reservoir over the last 20 years (to 2010) show a significant reduction in mean natural inflow to approximately 50% of the historical value. SA Water therefore estimated that the sustainable annual yield available from the Baroota Reservoir is 185 ML. The licensed water available for allocation from the groundwater resources of the Baroota PWRA will be determined during the development of the water allocation plan. Total metered extraction from the groundwater resources of the Baroota PWRA average approximately 1500 ML/a since 2002 (South Australian Government, 2009‐10b). Groundwater levels have declined by up to 10 m across the Baroota PWRA since 2002, and have reached their lowest levels recorded in over 30 years. Baroota Reservoir has contributed leakage to the groundwater system, but as the Reservoir is currently only used as a stand‐by water storage by SA Water and lower than usual rainfall and runoff has occurred since 2002, the contribution to the aquifer as a result of leakage has been reduced due to the lower water level maintained in the reservoir. Extractions are thought to have had only a minor impact on groundwater level trends (South Australian Government, 2009‐ 10b). Due to the substantial aquifer thickness (100 m), these water level reductions can be accommodated by the aquifer system over the coming decade, allowing sufficient time to develop the water allocation plan to manage the resources of the Baroota PWRA (South Australian Government, 2009‐10b). Despite the sustained fall in groundwater levels, a strong flow gradient from the ranges to the coast is still being maintained and there are no widespread increases in groundwater salinity levels. Under present conditions, it is unlikely that flow reversal from the west will occur that would cause rapid increases in salinity in the aquifer system. Non‐prescribed groundwater resources A number of shallow and deep groundwater aquifer systems are found in the region. Figure 8 shows the shallow groundwater resources across the Northern and Yorke region.

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Figure 8: Shallow groundwater resources in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region

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Booborowie Valley The sustainable yield from the groundwater resources of the Booborowie Valley is yet to be determined. There is no metering of extraction volumes, however estimated extractions have shown a significant decline from about 1200 ML/a in 1990 to about 300 ML/a in 2010 (South Australian Government, 2009‐10c). Groundwater levels respond to recharge in very wet years, but a prolonged period of below average rainfall has caused gradual water level declines in all aquifers. Groundwater salinity trends are variable, and may reflect long term changes in land use rather than impacts of groundwater extraction (South Australian Government, 2009‐10c).

Walloway Basin The sustainable yield from the groundwater resources of the Walloway Basin is yet to be determined. The only significant extractions occur from the deep Tertiary confined aquifer for the Orroroo town water supply (South Australian Government, 2009‐10d). SA Water have historically distributed, on average over the last 5 years, 125 ML from this resource for the purposes of Orroroo’s town water supply. Both groundwater levels and salinities in the Tertiary confined aquifer have been showing stable trends. Although salinity levels show stable trends, monitoring of the town water supply wells show salinities within a range of approximately 1750 mg/Ld an 2100 mg/L in 2010 (South Australian Government, 2009‐10d).

Willochra Basin The estimated extraction limit from the Tertiary confined aquifer of the Willochra Basin is 1000 ML/a. Groundwater levels in both the shallow Quaternary and Tertiary confined aquifer have been showing a long term declining trend up until 2009, which was predominantly caused by reduced recharge due to a prolonged period of below average rainfall. Higher rainfall in 2009 and 2010 has resulted in a rise in water levels (South Australian Government, 2009‐10e). Groundwater salinity trends in both aquifers appear to be stable with no obvious trend, with the exception of rising salinity in some wells in the shallow aquifer on the margins of the low salinity areas that were previously recharged by streamflow (South Australian Government, 2009‐10e).

Other non‐prescribed groundwater resources There are other non‐prescribed groundwater resources within the Northern and Yorke region, of which there are varying levels of knowledge. Table 5 below lists these groundwater resources, along with the estimated sustainable yield, estimated usage, expected salinity range and any further information (referred to as ‘comments’ in the table).

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Table 5: Summary of small groundwater basins in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region.

Resource name Estimated Estimated usage Expected salinity Comments sustainable yield (ML/yr) range (mg/L) (ML/yr)

Balaklava Unknown Unknown 2000‐3000 Salinity within 5‐6 km of the Wakefield River is considerably lower than the surrounding area. Small resource, not sustainable for major use. Existing use is fairly low, but due to the small size of the resource it is potentially vulnerable to large‐scale over‐ extraction.

Carribie 1000‐1400 Unknown 600‐1200 Utilised for stock and domestic use only – the soil capacity limits irrigation development. *Unknown Significant volumes relative to the region of under‐utilised groundwater, susceptible to high water demand through development (Marion Bay and Corny Point). However, SA Water suggest that the estimated sustainable yield could be significantly lower than this. Shallow aquifer vulnerable to pollution. There is anecdotal evidence that the aquifer is also vulnerable to seawater intrusion.

Para‐Wurlie 400 200 600‐1200 Recent investigations by SA Water suggest that the ‘safe’ yield is actually between 165‐220 ML/a.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 24 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

Resource name Estimated Estimated usage Expected salinity Comments sustainable yield (ML/yr) range (mg/L) (ML/yr) *165‐220 Town water supply usage only – does not include stock and domestic use as no data is available. Shallow aquifer vulnerable to pollution. Requires protection as a town water supply.

Quorn *178 *148 Unknown SA Water have the capacity to distribute 178 ML/a from this groundwater resource. In 2009‐2010 148 ML/a was the total volume extracted from SA Water’s system.

Note: Figures with an * are the volumes that SA Water recommend as the estimated safe yield) (Source: Deane & Magarey, 2004, and SA Water

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 25 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER

Non‐prescribed surface water and watercourse water resources The Northern and Yorke NRM Region has four main river catchments – Upper Light, Broughton and Wakefield in the Mid North, and Willochra in the uppermost part of the region. The most intensive use of surface water in the Broughton River catchment is in the Clare Valley and is managed through the water allocation planfor the Clare Valley PWRA. The most intensive use of surface water and watercourse water in the Wakefield River catchment is also in the Clare Valley and the upper reaches of this catchment is managed through the WAP for the Clare Valley PWRA (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). There are estimated to be over 8800 farm dams located within these four main river catchments, with a combined storage volume of around 22 GL. Dams of a storage volume greater than 5 ML are generally considered to be the minimum size capable of supporting higher water use activities such as irrigation. Across the Northern and Yorke region there are thought to be 705 dams above this threshold. These dams hold almost 47% of the total estimated storage, despite comprising only 8.2% of the total number of dams. The majority of these larger dams are found within the high rainfall zones of the region, notably within the Clare Valley PWRA, where rainfall and runoff is relatively reliable (Deane and Graves, 2008). SA Water manage three reservoirs in the Northern and Yorke region. The Baroota Reservoir (6.1 GL), Beetaloo Reservoir (3.7 GL) and Bundaleer Reservoir (6.4 GL) together have a combined capacity of 16.2 GL (Tonkin Consulting, 2005). The storage capacity of these reservoirs is, however, much greater than the sustainable yield that is considered appropriate to be taken from them. A study into these reservoirs identified that the sustainable yield from the Baroota, Beetaloo and Bundaleer reservoirs was 370 ML, 490 ML and 360 ML respectively. However, the study noted that in the last ten years (to 2005) natural inflows to all three reservoirs were significantly lower than during the previous twenty‐six years (Tonkin, 2005). In addition, recent internal investigations by SA Water of inflows to the Baroota Reservoir over the last 20 years (to 2010) show a further significant reduction in mean natural inflow to approximately 50% of the historical value. These reservoirs were among the earliest water supply infrastructure developed in the Northern and Yorke region and originally supplied extensive trunk main systems. In 1997 off‐takes from these reservoirs ceased due to SA Water’s commitment to higher standards of drinking water quality, in line with the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines. These reservoirs now remain as stand‐by water supplies and part of SA Water’s State Disaster and Emergency Management Plan. Lagoons are also a surface water feature of the Northern and Yorke NRM Region. The Yorke Peninsula has little drainage definition, with many surface water catchments terminating in landlocked lagoonal (saline wetland) features. Lagoons also occur elsewhere in the region where drainage is severely restricted. Freshwater wetlands occur mostly in the Mid North and Southern Flinders Ranges (Northern and Yorke NRM Board, 2008). Alternative water sources Alternative sources of water currently in use in the region include wastewater, stormwater and some desalinated water. Approximately 0.5% of the region’s water supply is captured stormwater (urban run‐off). Local councils throughout the Northern and Yorke NRM region have well developed capacities for capturing and reusing stormwater for non‐drinking purposes. It is estimated that 202 ML/a of stormwater in the region is currently being reused, predominantly to irrigate public open spaces, golf courses, school ovals, bowling greens and tennis courts.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 26 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER A range of factors may restrict any significant future increase in stormwater harvesting and reuse in the region, including:  a lack of suitable surface and aquifer storage;  low yields due to the low rainfall in parts of the region, which is expected to be further compounded by climate change;  the high cost of infrastructure and hence water produced; and  adhering to the regulatory and policy framework set out by the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Plan and the water allocation plan for the Clare Valley PWRA. Anecdotal evidence suggests a large proportion of households in the Northern and Yorke NRM region have rainwater tanks plumbed into their homes for domestic use. For example, the District Council of Orroroo Carrieton believe 99% of the local community is now self sufficient with rainwater as a result of their successful Rainwater Tank Scheme. Treated wastewater reuse could contribute up to approximately 2% of the water supplies in the Northern and Yorke NRM region. Figure 9 shows that there is approximately 402 ML/a of treated wastewater available from SA Water Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTP) in Port Augusta for non‐drinking purposes. In 2009‐2010 197 ML was reused (SA Water). Use of treated wastewater from SA Water’s Port Augusta WWTP has been limited because of the high salinity level of the water, but infrastructure upgrades currently underway will address this quality issue and enable increased reuse into the future. SA Water also has a WWTP in Port Pirie. However, at this stage no wastewater is reused from this WWTP due to the treated wastewater’s high salinity level. Many councils across the Northern and Yorke NRM region manage Community Wastewater Management Schemes (CWMS). Figure 9 shows that approximately 650ML of treated wastewater is available from these schemes for non‐drinking purposes. It is estimated that in 2009‐2010, 588 ML was reused. There may be additional wastewater available and reused in the region, however not all councils were able to provide data for inclusion in statement. The councils that contributed to the volume of 650ML of available treated wastewater include:  District Council of Barunga West;  Clare and Gilbert Valleys Council;  District Council of Mount Remarkable;  District Council of Orroroo Carrieton;  Wakefield Regional Council; and  District Council of Yorke Peninsula. The highest demand for wastewater reuse occurs during the warmer summer months, however wastewater availability is usually higher during the cooler winter months. Therefore, use of treated wastewater may increase if winter peak flow could feasibly be stored for reuse in the summer peak demand period.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 27 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Figure 9: 2009‐2010 Wastewater reuse from SA Water Wastewater Treatment Plants and Community Wastewater Management Schemes

The District Council of Yorke Peninsula owns and operates a desalination plant at Marion Bay. This desalination plant has the capacity to generate 20 ML/a of desalinated water, of which 5.5 ML was used for various purposes within the township in 2010. Figure 10: Marion Bay desalination plant

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 28 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 3: FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY

DEMANDS

Key issues with the potential to influence future demand for water in the Northern and Yorke region include:  population growth;  livestock demand;  viticulture demand; and  mining demand. Population growth The State Government has developed population projections for South Australian Statistical Divisions from 2006 to 2036. The Northern and Yorke NRM region crosses over two of these Statistical Divisions, the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division and the Northern Statistical Division. The projected average annual growth rate for the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division ranges from 0.3% per year (low projection) and 0.8% per year (high projection), between 2006 and 2036 (see figure 11). The projected average annual growth rate for the Northern Statistical Division ranges from 0.27% per year (low projection) and 0.66% per year (high projection), between 2006 and 2036 (see figure 12) (South Australian Government, 2010). Figure 11: Projected population for the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division (South Australian Government, 2010)

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 29 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Figure 12: Projected population for the Northern Statistical Division (South Australian Government, 2010)

Although the projected population growth rate varies across the Northern and Yorke NRM region, the demand‐supply projections developed in this statement use the population projections of the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division to account for the highest possible demand due to population growth. Due to the difference between the low population projection and the high population projection, the demand‐supply balance in this statement is projected under both scenarios. The population projections in the Northern Statistical Division assume major population growth at Roxby Downs due to the planned Olympic Dam expansion (South Australian Government, 2010), however this falls outside the Northern and Yorke NRM Region considered by this statement. The major population growth within the Yorke and Lower North Statistical Division is projected to be due to gains from retirement migration (South Australian Government, 2010). Livestock demand Livestock is a major industry in the Northern and Yorke NRM region. In 2008‐2009 there were 6,660 dairy cattle, 67,184 meat cattle and 2,669,661 sheep (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010). Livestock water use is highest in the summer months and varies depending on the type of feed. As advised by Primary Industries and Resources South Australia, for the purposes of this statement it was estimated that 10 L per day is required per each dry sheep equivalent. This daily water use includes an allowance for on‐farm losses. It is anticipated that demand from the livestock industry will increase by 1.5% per annum for the next 10 years and then remain constant. Viticulture demand Despite the wine industry experiencing its worst conditions in 25 years and being 6 years into an oversupply that shows no signs of easing (Hackworth, 2011), the viticulture industry in the Clare Valley is expected to continue to maintain its current demand on water resources. The harvest from the Clare Valley was 21,675 tonnes in 2010. The estimated production from the Clare Valley for 2011 is 27,000 tonnes and by 2015 the estimated production is expected to remain steady at just over 27,000 tonnes (Phylloxera and Grape Industry Board of South Australia, 2010).

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 30 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Mining demand South Australia’s Strategic Plan contains targets for exploration, production and processing in the mining sector that will drive significant growth over the next 40 years. The 2009 Resources and Energy Sector Infrastructure Council (RESIC) Infrastructure Demand Study shows there are currently no mines either in operation or advanced stages of exploration within the Northern and Yorke NRM region. Although there is interest in mining development in the Northern and Yorke NRM region, no demand from the mining industry has been factored into these projections at this stage. An updated RESIC Infrastructure Demand Study is due for imminent release. Preliminary data indicates that there is a likelihood of there being up to two mining projects in the Northern and Yorke NRM region. These projects are currently in feasibility stage and as such their water requirements are difficult to define at this time. There are also prospective projects that are currently in early exploration. It is anticipated that these projects may seek their water from a variety of sources. The information arising from this study will be incorporated during the annual review of the Statement and the projections will be adjusted as required. As outlined in Water for Good, it is State Government policy that securing water for mining activities is the responsibility of the company. Water will not be provided from the current SA Water reticulated supply, except perhaps for small amounts during establishment where the capacity exists, subject to negotiation with SA Water. SA Water may be prepared to consider joint proposals with mining companies for new water resource opportunities. SUPPLIES

Climate Change Suppiah et al. (2006) have indicated that rainfall is expected to decrease and temperatures increase across the Northern and Yorke NRM region in future years due to the impact of climate change (see Table 6). These changes are already occurring (see Figures 3 and 4), and are likely to have a significant impact on water availability. Table 6: Suppiah et al. (2006) projected average range of temperature and rainfall change in the Northern and Yorke region for 2030 and 2070

Climatic 2030 2070 characteristic Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring Annual Summer Autumn Winter Spring

Temperature (°C) 0.4 – 1.2 0.4 – 1.4 0.4 – 1.2 0.4 – 1.2 0.5 – 1.4 1.0 – 3.8 0.9 – 4.3 0.9 – 3.8 0.8 – 3.8 1.0 – 4.1

Rainfall (%) ‐9 – 0 ‐9 – +7 ‐6 – +2 ‐11 – ‐1 ‐20 – ‐1 ‐30 – ‐1 ‐25 – +22 ‐19 – +7 ‐35 – ‐3 ‐60 – ‐3

A study of the impacts of climate change on the prescribed water resources in the Northern and Yorke NRM Region, namely the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA, show a projected decrease in water runoff and recharge for these resources as a result of climate change (see Table 7). The results of this study indicate that the Clare Valley PWRA region is highly susceptible to projected climate changes, with the impact on runoff approximately 4.7 times greater than the change in winter rainfall that produced the change. For example, a 12% reduction in winter rainfall leads to a 58% reduction in runoff. This high sensitivity to potential climate changes is most likely due to the runoff response of the catchments, which generally occurs for only a number of days and only after large rainfall events, and as such it is more susceptible to changes in the amount of rainfall (Green et al., 2011).

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 31 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER The projected changes in the Baroota PWRA are much less severe compared to that expected from the Clare Valley catchments. For the Baroota catchment, the impact on runoff is approximately 1.8 times greater than the corresponding change in winter rainfall. For example, a 10% reduction in winter rainfall is expected to result in an 18% reduction in the median annual runoff. This lower sensitivity to projected climate changes is most likely due to the steeper catchment slope, as well as different soil types and land uses, generating runoff most years (Green et al., 2011). Table 7: Modelled changes in median annual runoff and recharge to the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA due to projected changes in winter rainfall as a result of climate change

Time horizon 2030 2050 2070

Emissions scenario Low Med High Low Med High Low Med High

Change in average winter rainfall ‐5 ‐7 ‐6.5 ‐7.5 ‐10 ‐13 ‐9 ‐15 ‐15 (%)

Change in median annual runoff ‐28 ‐35 ‐35 ‐40 ‐50 ‐58 ‐46 ‐65 ‐65 (%) – Clare Valley PWRA

Change in average annual recharge ‐23 ‐30 ‐30 ‐34 ‐43 ‐51 ‐40 ‐58 ‐58 (%) – Clare Valley PWRA

Change in median annual runoff ‐9 ‐12 ‐12 ‐14 ‐18 ‐23 ‐16 ‐27 ‐27 (%) – Baroota PWRA

Change in number of recharge ‐26 ‐33 ‐32.6 ‐37 ‐47 ‐55 ‐43 ‐62 ‐62 events (%) – Baroota PWRA

The low and high emissions scenarios used in this modelling correspond to the B1 and A2 emissions scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). This is the best available climate change science available for the water resources of the Northern and Yorke NRM region to date. Although the modelling in the Department for Water (Green et al. 2011) study is limited to the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA, it is reasonable to assume that we will also see a decrease to runoff and recharge of other water resources throughout the Northern and Yorke region as a result of climate change. Into the future, as knowledge increases regarding the impacts of climate change on other water resources within the region, it will be incorporated into the demand‐supply projections of this statement. Water source mix Figure 13 provides a projection of the drinking and non‐drinking quality water source mix in the Northern and Yorke region under possible low and high climate change scenarios. Currently, the combined total drinking and non‐drinking quality water sources in the region is 53.6 GL. Based on assumptions outlined in Table 8, the supply volume is not projected to change by 2025 under the low emissions scenario, remaining at approximately 53.6 GL. However it is projected to decrease slightly to 53.3 GL by 2025 under the high climate change scenario. Water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA is projected to slightly decrease by 2025 as a consequence of climate change, under the low emissions scenario. These losses are projected to be offset by the volume of recycled water available in 2025, therefore resulting in overall supply remaining unchanged. While the projected volume of recycled water oals increases out to 2025 under the high climate change scenario, the projected reduction in water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 32 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Baroota PWRA as a consequence of climate change has been greater, which results in the slight decrease in water available in 2025 under the high climate change scenario. By 2050, the demand‐supply projections suggest total water supply will decrease slightly to approximately 52.7 GL under the low climate change scenario, and 51.9 GL under the high climate change scenario because of an assumed decrease in the amount of water available from the Clare Valley PWRA and Baroota PWRA due to climate change. Figure 13: Northern and Yorke’s current and projected water sources for drinking and non‐drinking purposes

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 33 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS

In order to produce the 40‐year demand‐supply projections to 2050 a range of assumptions were required. Table 8 outlines the assumptions used to develop the projections. A confidence rating has been provided as a guide to the quality of the start value, where 1 represents metered data, 2 represents derived data and 3 represents best guess. It is important to note that the data and assumptions underlying the demand‐supply projections in this statement are based on the best available information to date. The annual review process (see part 5) will ensure that if there are any significant changes to the data or assumptions underlying the demand‐supply projections, it will be incorporated and the projections adjusted accordingly.

Table 8: Demand and supply assumptions

Demand assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Demand Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

Residential 10137 2 +0.3% /a of +0.8%/a of start Start value derived from SA Water’s customer Start Value – SA Water 2009‐10 estimated start level for level for high metered data with an allowance for system master meter equivalent volume. low population population losses and water restrictions. Trend – Population Projections for South growth growth Australia and Statistical Divisions 2006‐2036

Non‐ 10299 2 +0.5%/a of start level Start value derived from SA Water’s customer Start Value – SA Water 2009‐10 estimated residential metered data with an allowance for system master meter equivalent volume and District losses and water restrictions and the District Council of Yorke Peninsula metered Council of Yorke Peninsula’s metered Marion desalinated water use data. Bay desalination plant water usage. Trend – SA Water.

Livestock 13281 3 +1.5%/a of start level for 10 years, Start value is derived from 3,638,658 DSE Start Value – Australian Bureau of Statistics then constant requiring 10 L per day. Daily water use includes and PIRSA. an allowance for on‐farm losses. Trend – PIRSA. Trend is based on PIRSA forecast.

Camel 27 3 Constant 27 ML/a (2012‐2013), then Due to uncertainty regarding when the abattoir Start Value – PIRSA. constant 54 ML/a (2014‐2015), then will be fully operational, an assumption has

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 34 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Demand assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Demand Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating Abattoir constant 144 ML/a (2016‐2017), been applied, such that each stage of Trend – PIRSA. then constant 216 ML/a (2018‐ development will occur over two years. 2019), then constant 288 ML/a (2020‐2050)

Viticulture 4035 2 Constant Start value is derived from the irrigation Start Value – SA Water and the Water demand in the water allocations plan for the Allocation Plan for the Clare Valley PWRA. Clare Valley PWRA and the 2009‐2010 usage Trend – PIRSA through the Clare Irrigation Scheme.

Irrigation – 588 3 Constant 588 ML/a (2010‐2011), Start value and trend derived from meetings Start Value – local government data. CWMS then constant 747 ML/a (2012), then with local councils. Only those schemes that Trend – local government data. constant 1097 ML/a (2013‐2050) are currently operational or have funding approved for future schemes have been included.

Irrigation – 202 3 Constant 202 ML/a (2010‐2012), Start value and trend derived from meetings Start Value – local government data. stormwater then constant 273 ML/a (2013‐2050) with local councils. Only those schemes that Trend – local government data. are currently operational or have funding approved for future schemes have been included.

Irrigation – 402 2 Constant Start Value – SA Water. WWTP Trend – SA Water.

Irrigation – 2100 2 Constant A constant demand has been assumed as no Start Value – Department for Water groundwater trend information is available. Willochra Basin Groundwater Status Report 2009‐2010, Booborowie Valley Groundwater Status Report 2009‐2010 and Baroota PWRA Groundwater Status Report 2009‐2010.

Irrigation – 250 2 Constant 250 ML/a (2010‐2011), Start value is derived from the agreement Start Value – SA Water. Baroota then constant 500 ML/a (2012‐2050) between SA Water and existing customers and Trend – SA Water. Reservoir potential future customers.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 35 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Demand assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Demand Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

Stand‐by 1720 2 Constant The start value is derived from the volume of Start Value – SA Water. Water water available from the Bundaleer and Trend – SA Water. Supplies Beetaloo Reservoirs for stand‐by water supplies.

Supply assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

River Murray 26200 2 Constant The start value is based on the current Start Value – SA Water. – Morgan‐ resource capacity. Trend – SA Water. Whyalla The supply from this resource may vary in the pipeline future but with no clear knowledge of how or when this is to occur, the trend is considered to be constant.

River Murray 5600 2 Constant The start value is based on the current Start Value – SA Water. – Swan resource capacity. Trend – SA Water. Reach‐ The supply from this resource may vary in the Paskeville future but with no clear knowledge of how or pipeline when this is to occur, the trend is considered to be constant.

Bundaleer 1205 2 Constant The start value was derived on a study (of the Start Value – SA Water. and Beetaloo Bundaleer, Beetaloo and Baroota Reservoirs) Trend – SA Water. Reservoirs that estimated the combined sustainable yield of the Bundaleer and Beetaloo reservoirs was 850 ML/a plus the stand‐by water storage volume. However, the study noted that inflows in the last 10 years (to 2005) were significantly

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 36 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Supply assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating lower than the preview 26 years. In addition, a recent investigation into the Baroota Reservoir over the last 20 years (to 2010) shows a further significant reduction to inflows by approximately 50% of the historical value. Therefore, the sustainable yield volume used is reduced by 50% as per the Baroota investigation.

Wastewater 402 2 Constant Start Value – SA Water. – WWTP Trend – SA Water.

Wastewater 653 3 Constant 653 ML/a (2010‐2011), Start value and trend derived from meetings Start Value – local government data. – CWMS then constant 812 ML/a (2012), then with local councils. Only those schemes that Trend – local government data. constant 1162 ML/a (2013‐2050) are currently operational or have funding approved for future schemes have been included.

Stormwater 222 3 Constant 222 ML/a (2010‐2012), Start value and trend derived from meetings Start Value – local government data. – road‐runoff then constant 293 ML/a (2013‐2050) with local councils. Only those schemes that Trend – local government data. are currently operational or have funding approved for future schemes have been included.

Clare Valley 1338 1 0.7%/a decrease 1%/a decrease Start value is based on licensed water Start Value – Department for Water. PWRA – of start level for of start level for allocations. Trend – Department for Water Technical surface low climate high climate Report – Impacts of Climate Change on water change scenario change scenario Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03.

Clare Valley 670 1 0.7%/a decrease 1%/a decrease Start value is based on licensed water Start Value – Department for Water.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 37 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Supply assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating PWRA – of start level for of start level for allocations. Trend – Department for Water Technical watercourse low climate high climate Report – Impacts of Climate Change on water change scenario change scenario Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03.

Clare Valley 2205 1 0.6%/a decrease 0.9%/a decrease Start value is based on licensed water Start Value – Department for Water. PWRA – of start level for of start level for allocations. Trend – Department for Water Technical groundwater low climate high climate Report – Impacts of Climate Change on change scenario change scenario Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03.

Baroota 1125 2 0.2%/a decrease 0.4%/a decrease Start value is derived from recent investigation Start Value – SA Water. Reservoir of start level for of start level for into the Baroota Reservoir over the last 20 Trend – Department for Water Technical low climate high climate years (to 2010) that show a significant Report – Impacts of Climate Change on change scenario change scenario reduction to inflows by approximately% 50 of Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: the historical value plus the stand‐by water Northern and Yorke Natural Resources storage volume. Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03.

Baroota 1500 2 0.6%/a decrease 0.9%/a decrease Start value is derived from averaging the Start Value – Baroota PWRA Groundwater groundwater of start level for of start level for metered extraction since 2002. Status Report 2009‐2010, Department for resources low climate high climate Water. change scenario change scenario Trend – Department for Water Technical Report – Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 38 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Supply assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

Farm Dams 10650 2 Constant Start value is derived of 70% of farm dam Start Value – Preliminary Estimates of Farm storage (30% of the storage volume is Dam Development in the Northern and considered lost to evaporation). The volume of Yorke NRM Region, 2008, DWLBC and farm dam supply from the Clare Valley PWRA Department for Water. has been removed from this figure so as no double counting occurs. The supply from this resource may decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change but until further information is available, the trend is considered to be constant.

Marion Bay 20 1 Constant Start value is based on the maximum capacity Start Value – District Council of Yorke Desalination of the desalination plant. Peninsula. Plant The trend is considered constant because the maximum capacity could be supplied if demand required.

Groundwater 300 2 Constant Start value is based on the volume that was Start Value – Booborowie Valley – extracted in 2010. Groundwater Status Report, 2009‐2010, Booborowie Department for Water. The supply from this resource may decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change but until further information is available, the trend is considered to be constant.

Groundwater 125 2 Constant Start value is based on SA Water’s maximum Start Value – SA Water. – Walloway historical extraction (over the past 5 years) for township water supply. The supply from this resource may decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change but until further information is available, the trend is considered to be constant.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 39 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Supply assumptions projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

Groundwater 1000 2 Constant Start value is based on the estimated Start Value – Willochra Basin Groundwater – Willochra extraction limit. Status Report 2009‐2010, Department for Water. The supply from this resource may decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change but until further information is available, the trend is considered to be constant.

Groundwater 220 2 Constant Start value is based on SA Water investigations. Start Value – SA Water. – Para‐ The supply from this resource may decrease in Wurlie the future due to the impact of climate change but until further information is available, the trend is considered to be constant.

Groundwater 178 2 Constant Start value is based on SA Water’s maximum Start Value – SA Water. – Quorn historical extraction (over the past 5 years) for Fractured township water supply. Rock The supply from this resource may decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change but until further information is available, the trend is considered to be constant.

Demand assumptions projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Demand Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

Residential 10137 2 +0.3% /a of +0.8%/a of start Start value derived from SA Water’s customer Start Value – SA Water 2009‐10 estimated start level for level for high metered data with an allowance for system master meter equivalent volume. low population population losses and water restrictions. Trend – Population Projections for South growth growth Australia and Statistical Divisions 2006‐2036

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 40 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Demand assumptions projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Demand Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

Non‐ 10296 2 +0.5%/a of start level Start value derived from SA Water’s customer Start Value – SA Water 2009‐10 estimated residential metered data with an allowance for system master meter equivalent volume and District losses and water restrictions and the District Council of Yorke Peninsula metered Council of Yorke Peninsula’s metered Marion desalinated water use data. Bay desalination plant water usage. Trend – SA Water.

Livestock 5260 2 +1.5%/a of start level for 10 years, Start value is derived from the estimated stock Start Value – SA Water 2009‐10 estimated then constant component of SA Water’s non‐residential water master meter equivalent volume and the demand from the River Murray and Water Allocation Plan for the Clare Valley groundwater distribution networks (75% of the PWRA. primary production and unclassified Trend – PIRSA. categories). Trend is based on PIRSA forecast.

Camel 27 3 Constant 27 ML/a (2012‐2013), then Due to uncertainty regarding when the abattoir Start Value – PIRSA. Abattoir constant 54 ML/a (2014‐2015), then will be fully operational, an assumption has Trend – PIRSA. constant 144 ML/a (2016‐2017), been applied, such that each stage of then constant 216 ML/a (2018‐ development will occur over two years. 2019), then constant 288 ML/a (2020‐2050)

Viticulture 1185 2 Constant Start value is derived from the 2009‐2010 Start Value – SA Water. usage through the Clare Irrigation Scheme. Trend – PIRSA

Supply assumptions projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating

River Murray 26200 2 Constant The start value is based on the current Start Value – SA Water. – Morgan‐

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 41 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Supply assumptions projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Supply Start value Confidence Trend Notes Data source (ML) rating Whyalla resource capacity. Trend – SA Water. pipeline The supply from this resource may vary in the future but with no clear knowledge of how or when this is to occur, the trend is considered to be constant.

River Murray 5600 2 Constant The start value is based on the current Start Value – SA Water. – Swan resource capacity. Trend – SA Water. Reach‐ The supply from this resource may vary in the Paskeville future but with no clear knowledge of how or pipeline when this is to occur, the trend is considered to be constant.

SA Water 737 1 Constant Start value based on the maximum historical Start Value – SA Water. drinking extraction (over the past 5 years). Trend – SA Water. quality groundwater supplies

Marion Bay 20 1 Constant Start value is based on the maximum capacity Start Value – District Council of Yorke Desalination of the desalination plant. Peninsula. Plant The trend is considered constant because the maximum capacity could be supplied if demand required.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 42 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

The demand and supply projections outlined below have been simulated using the SimulAlt Demand‐ Supply Water Simulation Model (Intelligent Software Development, 2010), which was commissioned by the Department for Water. This model comprises basic features of the SimulAlt (socio‐economic and predictive analytics) behavioural simulation platform. The model enables simulation of the demand‐supply balance of water in various systems, over yearly time‐steps, to assist with strategic planning and water policy. It allows the creation of customised water systems comprising many demand and supply components with unique water demand‐supply trends over time; and the simulation of many water systems and their demand‐supply components over many years (yearly time‐step). Projection 1: All water demands and supplies Projection 1 provides the demand‐supply balance, when all demands and water sources listed in Table 8 are considered, showing high and low population growth and climate change scenarios. The low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC, 2000) represent the climate change scenarios in this projection. Figure 14: Projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Projection 1 shows that demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050, under any of the four scenarios; low climate change and low population growth, low climate change and high population

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 43 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER growth, high climate change and low population growth, or high climate change and high population growth. It is important to note that the projection provides a high level view of water demand versus supply. There are distribution limitations to these water supplies and if a demand in one location is not being met by the local supply, it is not guaranteed that one of the alternate water resources in the region will automatically be able to substitute for it. For example, if water supply from the Baroota Reservoir cannot fulfil demand of local irrigators, there won’t be water available from another source such as the Clare Valley PWRA to meet this demand because there isn’t a current suitable distribution network to transfer it there, even if water is available. Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply Projection 2 provides the demand‐supply balance when only drinking‐quality water demands and sources are considered, under high and low population growth scenarios. Drinking quality demands that have been included in Projection 2 are residential, non‐residential, camel abattoir, viticulture and livestock. Drinking quality sources that have been considered for Projection 2 include River Murray water from the Morgan‐Whyalla and Swan Reach‐Paskeville pipelines, desalinated water from the Marion Bay desalination plant and SA Water township water supplies from groundwater. The projection is based on the suite of assumptions outlined in Table 8. Figure 15: Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Projection 2 shows that demand for drinking‐quality water under the high population growth scenario is projected to exceed supply during 2044‐2045. Under the low population growth scenario demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050. As mentioned previously, it is important to note that the projection provides a high level view of water demand versus supply. There are distribution limitations to these water supplies and if a demand in one

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 44 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER location is not being met by the local supply, it is not guaranteed that one of the alternate water resources in the region will automatically be able to substitute for it. For example, if water supply from the Quorn fractured rock aquifer cannot fulfil township demand, it can’t be assumed that there will be water available from the Morgan‐Whyalla pipeline to meet this demand or a suitable distribution network to transfer it there, even if water is available.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 45 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 4: FINDINGS

Some of the findings identified in this statement warrant further discussion, which may lead to specific recommendations. It is not within the scope of this statement to provide such recommendations. However, if deemed necessary, the South Australian Minister for Water and the River Murray will determine how to address the findings of the statement by establishing an Independent Planning Process to consider and recommend options to address future water security issues for the Northern and Yorke NRM region. The types of options an Independent Planning Process may consider include seawater or groundwater desalination, expansion of any existing desalination plants, River Murray water purchases, expansion of the mains water distribution network and/or capacity, stormwater harvesting and reuse, treated wastewater recycling, increased rainwater reuse and demand management measures. The key findings identified in this statement relate to:  demand and supply projections;  population growth;  climate change;  water quality;  isolated demand‐supply issues; and  land use change. DEMAND‐SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

Two different demand‐supply projections are considered in this statement. Projection 1 considers all water demands and supplies under high and low population growth and climate change scenarios. Projection 2 considers drinking quality water demand and supply under high and low population growth scenarios. The outcomes of these projections presume that all the assumptions outlined in Table 8 are met. Table 9 outlines the impact on demand‐supply for both projections under the high and low population growth scenarios, if all of the assumptions outlined in Table 8 were to be realised. Projection 1 also considers high and low climate change scenarios, if all of the assumptions outlined in Table 8 were to be realised.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 46 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Table 9: Demand‐supply projections

Projection 1: All water demands and supplies

Scenario Projected outcome

High population growth/high climate change Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050.

High population growth/low climate change Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050.

Low population growth/high climate change Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050.

Low population growth/low climate change Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050.

Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply

Scenario Projected outcome

High population growth Demand is projected to exceed supply in 2044/45.

Low population growth Demand is not projected to exceed supply prior to 2050. POPULATION GROWTH

Under the high population growth scenario, residential demand over the period of 2010 to 2050 is projected to increase by approximately 3.2 GL. Under the low population growth scenario, residential demand over the period of 2010 to 2050 is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 GL. CLIMATE CHANGE

The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03 presents possible future climate change impacts on the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA. Based on this research, the modelling has projected decreases in runoff and recharge to the surface water, watercourse water and groundwater resources. Based on this modelling, Table 10a and 10b (below) outline the impacts these reductions in runoff and recharge will have on the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA, under the low and high climate change scenarios.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 47 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Table 10a: Projected impact of climate change on the Clare Valley PWRA

Water Resource Allocated Projected Projected Projected range water in 2010 allocation in allocation in of reduction in (ML) 2050 – under 2050 – under runoff or low climate high climate recharge by change scenario change scenario 2050 (ML) (ML) (ML)

Clare Valley PWRA – surface water 1338 963 819 375 – 519

Clare Valley PWRA – watercourse 670 482 410 188 – 260 water

Clare Valley PWRA – groundwater 2205 1676 1411 529 – 794

Note: The data in this table is based on allocations reducing proportionally to catchment yield. Table 10b: Projected impact of climate change on the Baroota PWRA

Water Resource Estimated Projected Projected Projected range sustainable sustainable yield sustainable yield of reduction in yield in 2010 in 2050 – under in 2050 – under runoff or (ML) low climate high climate recharge by change scenario change scenario 2050 (ML) (ML) (ML)

Baroota PWRA – surface water 185 170 155 15 – 30

Baroota PWRA ‐ groundwater 1500 1140 960 360 – 540

Note: The data in this table is based on the sustainable yield reducing proportionally to catchment yield. The projected reductions to these water resources as a result of climate change will impact the licenced water users within these PWRAs. As per the Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Water Initiative (Australian Government, 2004a), when preparing the water allocation plan for these two PWRAs, the risks that could affect the size of the water resource and the allocation of water for consumptive use under the plan, in particular the impact of natural events such as climate change, will be considered. It is reasonable to assume that if these projected reductions in available water as a result of climate change are realised, current and projected future demand from these specific water resources will not be met. At present, the Clare Irrigation Scheme is not being fully utilised and therefore may have the potential to satisfy some of the demand. This statement has used the best available climate change science to date applicable to the water resources of the Northern and Yorke NRM region. Although the modelling in the Department for Water (Green et al., 2011) study is limited to the water resources of the Clare Valley PWRA and the Baroota PWRA, it is reasonable to assume that we will also see a decrease to runoff and recharge of other water resources throughout the Northern and Yorke NRM region as a result of climate change. Into the future, as knowledge increases regarding the impacts of climate change on other water resources within the region, it will be incorporated into the demand‐supply projections of this statement.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 48 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER WATER QUALITY

Mains water supplies to the Northern and Yorke NRM region are mostly from the River Murray, via water treatment plants at Morgan and Swan Reach. These supplies comply with the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines, and there is a high level of customer satisfaction with the quality of water delivered. A number of small communities' mains water is sourced from local groundwater supplies, some of which exhibit aesthetic characteristics that lead to customer dissatisfaction. As such, there is community concern about the quality of water supplied from some groundwater resources to some of the townships in the mid north section of the Northern and Yorke NRM region. The concern centres on the aesthetic quality of the water, namely the taste of the water, and how the quality of the water is damaging household pipes and appliances. The World Health Organisation Guidelines (WHO Guidelines) for drinking‐water quality (World Health Organisation, 2008) and the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines (ADWG) (Australian Government, 2011) both recognise that the aesthetic value of water ‐ the appearance, taste and odour – is a high priority. Water that is aesthetically unacceptable will undermine the confidence of consumers and possibly lead to the use of water from sources that are less safe (World Health Organisation, 2008 and Australian Government, 2011). The ADWG state that what is aesthetically acceptable or unacceptable depends on public expectations, and must ultimately be determined by water authorities in consultation with consumers, taking into account the costs and benefits of further treatment (Australian Government, 2011). However, both the WHO Guidelines and the ADWG provide a guideline as to what is considered aesthetically acceptable. The key characteristics that are influencing the aesthetic value of these water supplies are sodium, sulfate and total dissolved solids. The WHO Guidelines and ADWG do not provide a health‐based guideline value for these characteristics but they do provide a guideline value based on aesthetic considerations (see Table 11). Table 11: A comparison of the aesthetic water characteristics of two Northern and Yorke region town water supplies with the World Health Organisation Guidelines and the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines Characteristic WHO ADWG value (mg/L) Typical value in Hawker Quorn Guidelines Australian drinking (mg/L) (mg/L) value water (mg/L) (mg/L) Sodium 200 180 Varies from 3 to 300, 510 – 520 Not known with a typical value of 50 Sulfate 250 250 Varies from 1 to 240, 460 Not known with a typical value of 20 Total 1000 0‐600 = good Varies from 45 to 750 2200 1400 dissolved 600‐900 = fair solids 900‐1200 = poor >1200 = unacceptable

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 49 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER As can be seen by the example of the Hawker and Quorn townships, the quality of water supplied to these towns is well outside the aesthetic guidelines considered acceptable by the WHO Guidelines and the ADWG. Through Water for Good, the State Government’s plan to ensure our water future to 2050, the South Australian Government has committed to investigate the viability of constructing groundwater desalination plants for regional townships where water quality (i.e. salinity) has been identified as an issue. It is intended that this will enable improvements to these water supplies by 2025 at the latest, and SA Water is ycurrentl investigating such a possibility in Hawker. ISOLATED DEMAND‐SUPPLY ISSUES

The demand‐supply projections in this statement provide a high‐level overview of all demands and all water supplies within the region as a total. It does not provide detail of the demand and supply of individual water supply systems. This is the responsibility of water authorities for their current distribution networks and of water allocation planning for prescribed water resources. However, in preparation of this statement a review has been undertaken of the relevant water authority plans, and water allocation plans. For the Northern and Yorke region, this includes SA Water’s Long Term Plan for Yorke Peninsula and the water allocation plan for the Clare Valley PWRA. SA Water is currently preparing a Long Term Plan for the Upper Spencer Gulf and the Northern and Yorke NRM Board are currently preparing a water allocation plan for the Baroota PWRA. In reviewing the available documents, SA Water’s Long Term Plan for Yorke Peninsula (SA Water, 2010) has identified that there are supply issues for some townships during peak periods within SA Water’s Upper Paskeville Water Supply System (WSS) and Warooka WSS in the Yorke Peninsula area. To address these issues, SA Water is investigating options to:  augment the Warren‐Bundaleer junction to increase supply through the junction; and  connect the Warooka WSS to the Upper Paskeville WSS. SA Water will continue to monitor the system for trends in demand and will implement the infrastructure upgrades when required. LAND USE CHANGE

It is projected that demand from livestock will increase by 1.5% per annum for the next ten years and then remain constant. This results in a projected increase in demand from livestock over the period of 2010 to 2050 by approximately 2 GL. Demand from the viticulture industry is expected to remain constant. The South Australian poultry meat industry has a strategic plan which seeks to increase South Australia’s share of national production from 9% in 2004 to 20% in 2015 (South Australian Government, 2005). PIRSA advise that the Northern and Yorke NRM region is the target area for this growth. It is estimated that there could be up to 20 new poultry meat farms, each requiring approximately 40‐50 ML/a of water. However, at this stage, energy and water infrastructure are limiting this growth. Given that development approval has not been given to any further growth in the industry, demand from the poultry meat industry has not been included in these projections. Should this situation change, it will be incorporated into the demand‐supply projections during the annual review of the statement (see part 5).

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 50 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 5: STAYING ON TRACK – ANNUAL REVIEW

Water for Good indicates that Regional Demand and Supply Statements will be analysed and reviewed as an integral part of an Adaptive Management Framework, shown in Figure 16. Figure 16: Adaptive Management Framework

IF MAJOR WATER DEMAND ANNUAL ACTION SECURITY AND SUPPLY REVIEW OF REQUIRED – STANDARDS STATEMENTS ASSUMPTIONS SET UP

AND TRIGGERS INDEPENDENT PLANNING PROCESS

DEMAND AND SUPPLY RECOMMENDED PROJECTION MODEL SOLUTION

DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT PROJECTIONS

For each individual water demand and source of water, assumptions are made on their respective start point and future trend based on the best available information. Start points and trends are loaded, by the Department for Water, for each demand and supply element into the SimulAlt DSWSM, which calculates the value of each demand and supply in yearly increments. These can then be plotted in any desired combination. REVIEW OF REGIONAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENTS

Water for Good stipulates that all Regional Demand and Supply Statements will be reviewed annually. The review process will assess the demand and supply assumptions, based on the most recent data provided by State agencies. Areas of particular interest are likely to be actual water use, population growth, changes in water allocation and major new ventures. When triggers are reached decisions must be made on whether or not to take corrective action. Trigger points help to ensure that decisions are cost‐effective and timely. In particular, they:  reduce risk and identify opportunities;

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 51 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER  encourage a large range of innovative solutions;  reduce the risk of making high‐cost investments that prove to be redundant, or are delivered earlier than needed; and  ensure demand and supply is continually monitored. It should not be assumed that all identified demand and supply gaps will necessarily be filled by Government. Should the Minister decide corrective action is needed, an Independent Planning Process will be established to review options and recommend a solution. Details of the annual review will appear in the Minister’s Annual Review, expected to be released by 31 March each year. Water for Good also proposes a more thorough review of the regional demand and supply statements is conducted every five years, which may involve field visits, stakeholder consultation and investigative studies.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 52 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 6: GLOSSARY

Aquifer — Underground sediments or fractured rock that hold water and allow water to flow through them. Aquifers include confined, unconfined and artesian types. Catchment — An area of land that collects rainfall and contributes to surface water (streams, rivers, wetlands) or to groundwater. Climate change —Variations in historic weather patterns due to increases in the Earth’s average temperature resulting from increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Commercial use — Commercial uses can include, but are not limited to, automotive/equipment showrooms, food outlets, restaurants, hotels, garden centres, motels, offices, supermarkets and shops. Demand management — An approach that is used to intentionally reduce the consumption of water through specific initiatives, normally either to conserve supplies or defer augmentations. Desalination — The process of removing dissolved salts from seawater (or brackish water) so that it becomes suitable for drinking or other productive uses. Drinking quality water — Water that is fit for human consumption. Groundwater — Sub‐surface water, particularly that which is held in aquifers. Irrigation — The application of water to cultivated land or open space to promote the growth of vegetation or crops. Institutional water use – Water used for governmental, educational, social welfare, armed services, cultural activities and nature exhibitions, places of assembly, amusements and entertainments, medical and health, and other public service purposes. Prescribed Water Resource — A prescribed water resource may be surface water, groundwater, watercourse water, or a combination of these. Prescription – Prescription establishes a framework for the sustainable management of water resources, provides more secure access to water for all water users, establishes a potentially tradable statutory water right, and recognises the environment as a legitimate user of water. Recharge — The infiltration of water into an aquifer from the surface (rainfall, stream flow, irrigation etc). Recycled water — Water derived from wastewater systems or stormwater drainage systems that has been treated to a standard that is appropriate for its intended use. Resource capacity – The total volume of water available for supply from a water resource. Run‐off — Precipitation that flows from a catchment area into rivers, lakes, watercourses, reservoirs or dams. Security of supply — Reliability or surety of meeting water supply demand. Storages provide the capability to ensure a certain level of supply is available despite seasonal variations in stream flow. Stand‐by water supply – Water supply storages that are used to maintain a water supply in the event of a problem with the primary water supply.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 53 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Stormwater — Water that flows off hard surfaces, including properties and roads, during rain events. Surface water — water flowing over land or collected in a dam or reservoir. Wastewater — Contaminated water before it undergoes any form of treatment. The water may be contaminated with solids, chemicals, or changes in temperature. Water allocation plan — A legal document detailing the rules for the allocation, use and transfer of water from prescribed water resources, as well as the water‐affecting activities that require permits. Water licence — Authorisation granted to a water licensee that has endorsed on it an allocation as a volume of water that the licensee is authorised to take or to hold, representing a share of water from a prescribed water resource as defined in the relevant water allocation plan. Watercourse water — water which is contained or flows, whether permanently or from time to time, in a river, creek or other natural watercourse (whether modified or not).

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 54 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 7: ABBREVIATIONS

ABS – Australian Bureau of Statistics CWMS – Community Wastewater Management Scheme DSWSM – Demand‐Supply Water Simulation Model DFW — Department for Water (Government of South Australia) GL — gigalitre (1 GL = 1 000 000 000 L) GL/a – gigalitres per annum kL — kilolitre (1 kL = 1 000 L) kL/a – kilolitres per annum kL/day — kilolitres per day L – Litre m ‐ metres ML — megalitre (1 ML = 1 000 000 L) ML/a — megalitres per annum ML/d — megalitres per day NRM — Natural Resources Management NWI – National Water Initiative PIRSA — Primary Industries and Regions South Australia (Government of South Australia). PWCMs – Permanent Water Conservation Measures PWRA – Prescribed Water Resources Area SA Water — South Australian Water Corporation (Government of South Australia) WAP — Water Allocation Plan WWTP — Wastewater Treatment Plant

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 55 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 8: BIBLIOGRAPHY

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2010, 71210DO001_200809 Agricultural Commodities, Australia, 2008‐09, Australian Government, Canberra. Australian Government 2004a, Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Water Initiative, Australian Government, Canberra. Australian Government 2011, Climate Data Online, Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra. CSIRO 2008, Water availability in the Murray‐Darling Basin. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO from the Murray‐Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO, Australia. CSIRO 2009, Water yields and demands in south‐west Western Australia. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO South‐West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project. CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country Flagship, Australia. Deaned D an Graves C 2008, Preliminary estimates of farm dam development in the Northern and Yorke NRM region, DWLBC Report 2008/18, Government of South Australia, Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, Adelaide. Department of Trade and Economic Development 2009, Economic and Environmental Indicators for South Australia and its Regions 2006/07, Department for Trade and Economic Development, Adelaide. Green, G, Gibbs, M, and Wood, C, 2011, Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources, Phase 3 Volume 1: Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Region, DFW Technical Report 2011/03, Government of South Australia, through Department for Water, Adelaide. Hackworth P 2011, SA Wine Industry: A Decade of Downturn Ahead?, Wine Grape Council of South Australia, Adelaide. Heneker TM and Cresswell D, 2010, Potential Impact on Water Resource Availability in the Mount Lofty Ranges due to Climate Change, DFW Technical Report 2010/03, Government of South Australia, through Department for Water, Adelaide. Intelligent Software Development 2010, SimulAlt Demand‐Supply Water Simulation Model, Intelligent Software Development, Adelaide. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenarios: Summary for Policymakers, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Magarey PD and Deane D 2004, Small Groundwater Basins Risk Assessment: Northern and Yorke Agricultural District, DWLBC Report 2004/54, Government of South Australia, Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, Adelaide. NHMRC, NRMMC (2011) Australian Drinking Water Guidelines Paper 6 National Water Quality Management Strategy, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Resource Management Ministerial Council, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra.

Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Board 2008, State of the Region Report 2008, Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Board, Crystal Brook.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 56 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Board 2009, Clare District Summary Irrigation Annual Report 2008‐09, Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Board, Crystal Brook. Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Board 2010, www.nynrm.sa.gov.au/PolicyPlanning/WaterPlans/BarootaWaterAllocationPlan.aspx, Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Board, Crystal Brook. Phylloxera and Grape Industry Board of South Australia 2010, Clare Valley Wine Region – Regional Summary Report 2010, Phylloxera and Grape Industry Board of South Australia, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2005, Poultry Meat in South Australia – strategic directions 2005‐2015, Primary Industries and Resources South Australia, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2009‐10a, Clare PWRA Groundwater Status Report, Department for Water, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2009‐10b, Baroota PWRA Groundwater Status Report, Department for Water, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2009‐10c, Booborowie Valley Groundwater Status Report, Department for Water, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2009‐10d, Walloway Basin Groundwater Status Report, Department for Water, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2009‐10e, Willochra Basin Groundwater Status Report, Department for Water, Adelaide. South Australian Government 2010, Population Projections for South Australia and Statistical Divisions, 2006‐36, Department of Planning and Local Government, Adelaide. SA Water 2010, SA Water’s Long Term Plan for Yorke Peninsula, SA Water, Adelaide. Suppiah, R., Preston, B., Whetton, P.H., McInnes, K.L., Jones, R.N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J., Kirono, D., 2006, Climate Change under Enhanced Greenhouse Conditions in South Australia, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC, Australia. Tonkin Consulting 2005, Northern Dams Yield Analysis, Tonkin Consulting, Adelaide. World Health Organization 2008, Guidelines for Drinking‐water Quality, Third Edition, Volume 1, World Health Organization, Geneva.

Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 57 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER