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NORTHERN AND YORKE November 2011 DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 1 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER CONTENTS PART 1: NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT IN SUMMARY 5 Water source mix 8 Demand‐supply projections 9 Key findings 10 PART 2: CURRENT RESOURCES 14 Regional overview 14 Water resources 17 River Murray water 18 Prescribed water resources 20 Non‐prescribed groundwater resources 21 Non‐prescribed surface water and watercourse water resources26 Alternative water sources 26 PART 3: FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY 29 Demands 29 Population growth 29 Livestock demand 30 Viticulture demand 30 Mining demand 31 Supplies 31 Climate change 31 Water source mix 32 Demand and supply assumptions 34 Demand and supply projections 43 Projection 1: All water demands and supplies 43 Projection 2: Drinking quality water demand and supply 44 PART 4: FINDINGS 46 Demand‐supply projections 46 Population growth 47 Climate change 47 Water quality 49 Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 2 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Isolated demand‐supply issues 50 Land use change 50 PART 5: STAYING ON TRACK – ANNUAL REVIEW 51 DEMAND and supply statement projections 51 Review of regional demand and supply statements 51 PART 6: GLOSSARY 53 PART 7: ABBREVIATIONS 55 PART 8: BIBLIOGRAPHY 56 Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 3 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER FOREWORD I am pleased to present the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement, a key commitment in Water for Good – the State Government’s plan to ensure our water future to 2050. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is the second of eight Regional Demand and Supply Statements. These statements are high level strategic documents that project the available water supply and demands for a region and any possible future demand‐supply imbalance. The projections in these statements will then be used to guide the timing and nature of future demand management or supply augmentation options, when needed. The projections in the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement suggest that demand is not likely to exceed supply for drinking quality water until 2044/45 under a worst‐ case scenario and not prior to 2050 under a best‐case scenario. These projections are based on the best available information to date. Should new information become available, such as the updated Resources and Energy Sector Infrastructure Council’s (2011) Infrastructure Demand Study, it will be incorporated during the annual review, and the demand‐supply projections will be adjusted as necessary. This Statement will complement other water planning processes such as water allocation plans for prescribed water resource areas and SA Water’s Long Term Plans. Five years prior to when demand has been projected to exceed supply, an Independent Planning Process will be initiated. It is through this process that demand management or supply augmentation options to address the shortfall will be considered. At this stage, an Independent Planning Process is not required for the Northern and Yorke region until 2039/40 at the earliest. Importantly, we will continue to monitor the situation on an annual basis to ensure we are responding to any significant change. While the quantum of drinking quality water is projected to meet demand out to 2044/45, it was identified that there were concerns around the aesthetic characteristics of some communities’ mains water. Through Water for Good, the State Government has already committed to investigate the viability of constructing groundwater desalination plants for regional townships where water quality (i.e. salinity) has been identified as an issue. Water security remains a challenge for South Australia but I am confident that the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement provides critical information to help us ensure the Northern and Yorke Region’s water supply continues to support its economy, lifestyle and environment. The Hon Paul Caica MP Minister for Water and the River Murray Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 4 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER PART 1: NORTHERN AND YORKE DEMAND AND SUPPLY STATEMENT IN SUMMARY South Australia has a vast land area with diverse landscapes and climatic conditions that influence the quantity and source of available water. Beyond the city of Adelaide, the population is scattered widely, with some regional centres, towns and communities without a local and reliable natural water source. In order to determine the best ways to secure the State’s water resources, it is important to first take stock of the resources available, the current and projected future demands on them and the likely timing of any potential demand‐supply imbalance. It is also important to recognise that the water industry in South Australia is changing. To achieve a more dynamic water sector, the State Government’s water security plan, Water for Good, commits to new water industry legislation that will better reflect the changing environment. The purpose of the new legislation is to provide a framework to support a contemporary and developing water industry by: providing for an integrated approach to water demand and supply planning; and providing for the regulation of the water industry. A changing climate, drought, economic development initiatives, and expected population growth have driven this change in what has typically been a relatively stable service sector. South Australia is also a signatory to the National Water Initiative (NWI), Australia’s blueprint for water reform. The NWI promotes a more cohesive national approach to the way Australia manages, measures, plans for, prices and trades water. Within this context, the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is a Water for Good initiative which aims to provide a long‐term (40 years) overview of water supply and demand in the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management (NRM) region of South Australia. It applies an adaptive management process to outline the state and condition of all water resources in the region for drinkingn and no ‐drinking water, lists major demands on these water resources, and identifies likely timeframes for any possible future demand‐ supply imbalance. Water for Good states that the Minister for Water and the River Murray will establish an Independent Planning Process if demand‐supply projections indicate a gap is likely to exist in the foreseeable future. Therefore, this statement will be used to guide planning for the timing and nature of future demand management or supply options, ensuring that long‐term solutions are based on a thorough understanding of the state of local resources, the demand for them, and likely future pressures, including the impacts of climate change. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement will be reviewed annually, checking the status of the resources and the assumptions on which the statement is based. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 5 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER The statement will also be comprehensively reviewed and updated every five years, unless such a review is triggered earlier based on the findings of the annual review process. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement builds on, and does not duplicate, other water planning processes. Other key plans that link to the Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement include: South Australia’s Strategic Plan; Water for Good; Strategic Infrastructure Plan for South Australia; State Natural Resources Management Plan; SA Water’s Long Term Plan for Yorke Peninsula; Water Allocation Plan for the Clare Valley Prescribed Water Resources Area; Water Allocation Plan for the River Murray Prescribed Watercourse; Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management Plan; Mid North Region Plan; Far North Region Plan; Yorke Peninsula Regional Land Use Framework; and Central Local Government Region of South Australia Water Supply Investigation. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement is based on the Northern and Yorke Natural Resources Management (NRM) region, as shown in Figure 1. Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 6 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement| 7 | DEPARTMENT FOR WATER The Northern and Yorke NRM region incorporates 44 urban centres or rural townships, including Port Augusta, Port Pirie, Clare, Kadina, Moonta, Wallaroo and Peterborough. SA Water mains distribution systems include the Morgan‐Whyalla system, Swan Reach‐ Paskeville system, Warooka system, Melrose system, Orroroo system, Wilmington system, Quorn system and Hawker system. The Morgan‐Whyalla and Swan Reach‐Paskeville systems supply River Murray water and the remaining systems supply groundwater water from various aquifers. Water for the environment is essential for ecosystem and waterway health and ultimately the resources’ productivity. The environmental water provisions of the Northern and Yorke region are set out in water allocations plans for the Clare Valley and Baroota Prescribed Water Resources Areas (PWRA), and the Northern and Yorke NRM Plan. As such, environmental water provisions are not explicitly included in this statement. When preparing water allocation plans one of the issues considered is the quantity and quality of water needed for dependent ecosystems, and the time periods during which those ecosystems need water. The appropriate proportions are then set aside to meet these demands and the remaining proportion is available for allocation. The Northern and Yorke Demand and Supply Statement only includes supply from the PWRAs available for allocation, meaning the remainder is available to the environment. Further, the Northern and Yorke NRM Plan contains a viable water resources target that aims to have viable water resources that support environmental, social and economic needs. WATER SOURCE MIX Figure 2 (below) outlines the current and projected future water sources in the Northern and Yorke region under possible scenarios for both low and high greenhouse gas emissions. As can be seen, the Northern and Yorke region is heavily reliant on the River Murray for their water supply, with surface water providing the second largest volume of water, followed by groundwater resources.
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