Schools Demand Assessment, Lambs Cross Cover Page

______STRATEGIC HOUSING DEVELOPMENT

SCHOOLS DEMAND ASSESSMENT ______

LAMBS CROSS, SANDYFORD, DUBLIN Mixed Use Apartment Development Submitted on behalf of Blathus Property Limited December 2020 Contact Details

Andrew Hersey Planning 3 Atlantic View West End Kilkee Co. Clare Phone: 087 6870917 Email: [email protected] www.andrewherseyplanning.com

Contract This report describes work commissioned by Blathus Property Limited. Andrew Hersey MIPI MRUP carried out this work.

Purpose

This document has been prepared as a Schools Demand Assessment for Blathus Property Limited to be submitted to An Bord Pleanala as part of a Strategic Housing Development Planning Application. Andrew Hersey Planning accepts no responsibility or liability for any use that is made of this document other than by the client for the purposes for which it was originally commissioned and prepared.

______Andrew Hersey BAgr.Sc. Dip. EIA Mgmt. MRUP MIPI

Strategic Housing Development Lambs Cross Schools Demand Assessment

1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose of Report

This Schools Demand Assessment has been prepared to support a Strategic Housing Developing Planning Application prepared on behalf of Blathus Property Limited for the following development:.

'Demolition of existing dwelling on site and permission for a mixed use development consisting of 143 Residential Units, including 4 live work units (Block A =34, Block B = 27, Block C = 48, Block D = 34) Communal Room (36sq.m) Hot Desk Area (36sqm) Commercial Unit (42sq.m) x2 Office units (Office 1, 48sq.m Office 2, 97sq.) Coffee Shop 42sq.m, Gym 115sq.m, Community Room 36sq.m and a Crèche 200sq.m. Together with 166 Car Parking Spaces (9 surface spaces and 157 basement spaces inclusive of 5 disabled spaces and 5 car share), raised pedestrian board walk, landscaping/tree planting and all associated works’

Figure 1.1 Map showing location of the proposed development site (courtesy Bing Maps)

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1.2 Background

The purpose of this report is to examine the capacity of schools in the immediate area of the proposed development site and the demand for those schools which will arise from the future population of the proposed development. The report has been prepared in response to Section 8.2.3.5 of the Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022 which states:

‘‘It is policy of the Planning Authority that no large developments over 100 residential units shall be permitted unless it can be demonstrated that adequate provisions for speciﬁed physical and social infrastructural requirements, including: roads, sewers, water mains, community, recreational and sporting facilities (indoor and outdoor), public transport, ﬁrst and second level schools and shops are available at completion to support development. A phasing schedule for any such development shall be submitted with a planning application.”

Development Plan policy therefore requires this Schools Demand Assessment Report.

1.3 Site Context

The proposed development site is located to the north west corner of Lambs Cross and comprises 0.8ha of land. The site is located approximately 9km south of the city centre

Lambs Cross has a number of services including a shop, veterinary clinic, hair & beauty salon, community centre and a national school while Sandyford Village, Stepaside Village & Dundrum Town are all within close proximity. Sandyford Business District, which makes up much of the suburb of Sandyford and encompasses Sandyford Industrial Estate, is located within 1.5 Km, of the site and is one of the biggest business parks in Ireland, consisting of over 500 companies employing approximately 20,000 people. These include ﬁnancial services and technology companies such as Google, Facebook, Microsoft and AIB.

The site is strategically located in close proximity to key public transport routes including Dublin Bus Routes which travel via Lambs Cross (44 & 44B) which connects the site to DCU in Drumcondra via the City Centre, Miltown, and Sandyford Business District. The 114 bus route runs from Simon’s Ridge via Lambs Cross to Blackrock Dart Station

The site is approximately 1km from the M50. The site is therefore highly accessible to employment hubs, community services and the wider area of Dublin and the rest of the country..

The site is under the administrative jurisdiction of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council.

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2.0 METHODOLOGY

2.1 Code of Practice

“The Provision of Schools and the Planning System – A Code of Practice for Planning Authorities (2008)” published by the Department of Education and Science and the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, sets out best practice approaches that should be followed by planning authorities in ensuring that the planning system plays its full part in facilitating the timely and cost-effective roll-out of school facilities by the Department of Education and Science and in line with the principles of proper planning and sustainable development.

In respect of identifying requirements for primary schools in the future, the “Code of Practice” outlines that the Department of Education and Science will assume that an average of 12% of the population is of primary school-going age.

In respect of secondary schools’ provision, the “Code of Practice” identiﬁes that the procedure for establishing demand for new second-level schools may in some cases be more complex as it involves not just an assessment of likely population growth but also an appraisal of the capacity of existing post-primary schools, coupled with an assessment of the enrolment patterns in existing and anticipated 'feeder' national schools.

2.2 Methodology

With respect of the above, the following methodology is used to assess as to whether there is sufﬁcient school places for the future population of the proposed development is as follows:

(i) Examine the general population and school going population of a study area (ii) Examine the type of households in the study area and with respect to the proposed development which consists exclusively of apartments with commercial uses at ground ﬂoor level and examine the average number of residents per apartment in the study area. (iii) Take the average number of residents per apartment in the study area calculated under (ii) above and multiply it by the number of apartments proposed. (iv) This will result in a potential future population of the proposed development. (v) Examine the number of residents in the study area of school going age i.e. 4-12 year olds - primary school and 13-18 year olds - post primary school, as a percentage of the population of the study area

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(vi) Using these percentages calculate the potential number of residents in the proposed development of a school going age (vii) Calculate the enrolment of students in primary and post primary schools on the study area. Examine these against the number of residents of a school going age calculated under (v) above (viii) Examine projected future enrolment of students in primary and post primary schools in the study area having regard to Department of Education & Science Forecast Models. (ix) Examine existing significant planning permissions in the study area (x) Examine plans for new schools and extensions to existing schools in the study area (xi) Quantify as to whether there is sufficient capacity in the existing schools to accommodate the proposed development taking cognisance of future enrolment projections, existing significant planning applications and proposals for new schools in the short to medium term.

Figure 2.1 Map showing Electoral Districts within 2.5km radius of the proposed development site (courtesy Bing Maps)

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2.3 The Study Area

The average distance to primary schools in the Dun Laoighre Rathdown Administrative Area is 900metres while secondary schools is 1.3km (https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mdsi/ measuringdistancetoeverydayservicesinireland/generalresults/)

Having regard to the location of the site, it is noted that there are just two primary schools and two secondary schools within 1.5km of the site. In this respect and having regard to the highly commutable location of the site it is considered appropriate therefore to examine schools and population characteristics within 2.5km radius of the site.

There are 12 Electoral Districts within or partially within a 2.5 km radius of the site which are set out on Table A2 of the Appendices at the end of this report. For the purposes of this report the Study Area is taken to be these 12 Electoral Divisions (see Figure 2.1 above)

Summary: “The Provision of Schools and the Planning System – A Code of Practice for Planning Authorities (2008)” published by the Department of Education and Science sets out best practice approaches that should be followed by planning authorities in ensuring that the planning system plays its full part in facilitating the timely and cost-effective roll-out of school facilities. Population statistics are examined within the study area which comprises of 12 Electoral Districts which are located within 2.5km of the proposed development site. From examination of these statistics we can project a population of the proposed development and the potential number of persons of school going age that would potentially reside in the proposed development. Taking account of existing schools in the study area, their enrolment ﬁgures, enrolment forecasts and taking cognisance of population increases and new schools being developed and planned to be developed a decision can be made as to whether there is capacity for the future school going age population of the proposed development.

3 POLICY CONTEXT

The key planning polices which relate to the proposed development and this School Demands Assessment is set out below

3.1 Dún-Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022

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The relevant statutory development plan for the area is the Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022. Section 8.2.3.5 (iv) of the Plan in relation to ‘Phased Development’ states:

With regard to the fact that the proposed number of units in this case 148 units implies the requirement to carry out a School Demand Assessment

3.2 Sustainable Residential Development in Urban Areas

The Guidelines for Planning Authorities on Sustainable Residential Development in Urban Areas (2009) is relevant in this regard. In particular the guidelines state with regard to schools that:

No substantial residential development should proceed without an assessment of existing schools capacity or the provision of new school facilities in tandem with the development

3.3 The Provision of Schools and the Planning System July (2008)

In July 2008, the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government together with the Department of Education and Science published a code of practice entitled ‘The provision of Schools and the Planning System’.

The main focus of the document details the procedures to be adopted by Planning Authorities in integrating schools planning issues into their development planning processes.

3.4 Projections of full-time enrolment Primary and Second level 2020-2038

This report, compiled by the Department of Education & Science provides the latest set of projections of full-time enrolment in primary and post-primary schools up to 2038. The report contains projected enrolments under a range of scenarios covering migration and fertility.

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With respect of primary level, the report states: Enrolments in primary schools in Ireland in 2019 stood at 567,716, down slightly on 2018 (567,772). Enrolments are now projected to fall over the coming years under all scenarios, and under one such scenario will reach a low point of 451,971 by 2034. This is 115,745 lower than today’s ﬁgure. Enrolments will rise again thereafter and are projected to stand at 464,984 by 2038, a rise of some 13,000 over the four years 2034 to 2038.

Enrolments in post-primary have risen by 27,558 (8%) over the past ﬁve years and are projected to continue rising over the short term. Under one scenario they are projected to peak in 2024 with 410,415 pupils, some 39,000 higher than in 2019. Thereafter enrolments are expected to fall to 314,587 by 2038.

Summary: Section 8.2.3.5 (iv) of the Dún Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022 requires that a School Demand Assessment be carried out by the applicant in cases where the number of housing units exceed 100. The proposed development is for 143 units hence the requirement for this School Demand Assessment. Projections for full time enrolement at primary and post primary level show that enrolments at primary level are now decreasing across the state and that whole post primary enrolments are still increasing these are set to peak in 2024 before decreasing sharply in 2025

4.0 ASSESSMENT

4.1 Analysis of Population Statistics within the Study Area

The total population of the study area living in private households is 60,139 persons (2016 CSO data). This has increased since 2011 when there was 55,249 persons living in private households. This represents a 8.13% increase in population in the study area. See Table A2 of Appendices

The total population of people living in flats/apartments in the Study Area is 12,272 persons living in 7167 flats/apartments. The average number of persons living in a flat/apartment, in the study area is therefore 1.83 persons (12,272/7167 = 1.83)

The number of 4-12 year olds living in the Study Area is 4067 persons - this represents 6.76% of the population of the study area living in private households. (See Table A3 in the Appendices) This is well below the recommended ﬁgure of 12% of the population of primary school going age as stated. in “The Provision of Schools and the Planning System – A Code of Practice for Planning Authorities (2008)”

The number of 13-18 year olds living in the Study Area is 2422. This represents 4.03%of the total population living in private households. (See Table A3 in the Appendices)

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4.2 Characteristics of Proposed Development

The proposed development comprises of a mixed use development of four blocks of apartments . The apartments types are set out in the following table:

1 bed 2 bed 3 bed

Total 43 92 8 143

Table 4.1 Unit Types of Proposed Development

There are 143 apartments proposed in the development. Taking the average number of persons living in a ﬂat/apartment in the study area at 1.83 persons then the potential population of the proposed development is 262 persons

4.3 School Demand Requirement of the Proposed Development

Having regard to the average number of persons of primary school going age in the study area being 6.76% of the population then there is potential 18 children (6.76% of 262) of primary school going age as a consequence of the proposed development. If we take account of the guidance set out in. “The Provision of Schools and the Planning System – A Code of Practice for Planning Authorities (2008)” which states that 12% of the population is primary school going age then this number increases to 31 children.. However, I am of the opinion that it is better in this context to have regard to the actual population statistics of the study area which reveals that 6.76% of the population are of primary school going age which is 18 children in this instance. This ﬁgure represents a high-end estimate as it is based upon the assumption of maximum occupancy with the development, and it is likely not all units will be occupied families having regard to the fact that the development for the most part consists of 1 and 2 bed units.

Having regard to the average number of persons of secondary school going age in the study area being 4.03% of the population then there is potential 11 children (4.03% of 262) of secondary school going age. as a consequence of the proposed development. Again, this ﬁgure represents a high-end estimate as it is based upon the assumption of maximum occupancy with the development, and it is likely not all units will be occupied families

4.4 Potential Population Increase

There has been a 8.13% increase in population in the study area between 2011 and 2016. The current population is 60,139 persons in the study area. Considering a 10% increase in population over the last 5

Page 8 Strategic Housing Development Lambs Cross Schools Demand Assessment years that would result in a projected population for 2021 of 66,152 persons. A 10% increase children of a primary school going age would be 4476 (4067 x 110%) children and post primary 2664 (2422 x 110%)

4.5 Projections of full-time enrolment Primary and Second level

As stated under Section 3.4 above the Department of Education forecasts that there will be a downward number of enrolments to primary schools going forward .and that there will be a downward trend of enrolment in post primary schools from 2024

Summary: Taking account of the average household size for Flats/Apartments in the Study Area 1.83 persons/ household and having regard to the predicted population of the proposed development which is 262 persons, then 19 primary school places and 12 post primary school places will be required to serve the proposed development. According to Department of Education forecasts, future enrolment in both primary and post primary schools will decrease over the next 18 years.

5 EXISTING SCHOOLS

As part of the School Demands Assessment process Andrew Hersey Planning has surveyed the location and enrolment ﬁgures of the existing schools within the Study Area

5.1 Primary/National Schools

Within a 2.5km radius of the site there are 14 National/Primary Schools. The current cumulative enrolment of these schools is 5065 students for the 2019/2020 school year.

There are 4067 4-12 year olds living in private accommodation in the study area. It is expected that some children from outside of the study area will attend these schools but the enrolment ﬁgures show that there is a marked discrepancy between the enrolment ﬁgures and the actual number of 4-12 year olds in the study area in 2016. Even taking into account an increase of 10% of the number of 4-12 year olds in the study area to 4467, there is still ample capacity in the cumulative capacity of these schools.

This is not taking into account new schools been planned for the area which will be set out in Section 6 below.

Considering the proposed development will potentially require just 18 primary/national school places, this represents just 0.44% of the total number of students enrolled.

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From examination of the website, the nearest school St Marys (https://www.stmarysnssandyford.ie) which is located within a 2 minute walk of the proposed development site has 60 places available for the 2020/2021 enrolment year. This one school therefore could take all the potential students from the proposed development.

Figure 5.1 Map showing Primary Schools within Study Area

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No.on Map School Name Address Enrolment (Black) 2019/2020

1 St Attracta’s Junior NS Dundrum 343

2 St Attracta’s Senior NS Dundrum 356

3 St Olafs National School Dundrum 509

4 Queen of Angles Sandyford 314

5 St Raphaela National School Stillorgan 444

6 Scoil Naomh Lorcan Kilmacud 447

7 St Marys National School Lambs Cross 265

8 Stepaside Educate Together Stepaside 365

9 Gaelscoil Shliabh Rua Ballyogan 236

10 Holy Cross National School Dundrum 301

11 Holy Trinity National School Leopdarstown 578

12 Gaelscoil Thaobh na Coille Stepaside 458

13 Goatstown Stillorgan Educate Stillorgan 41 Together

14 Nord Anglia International Leopardstown 400 School(private)1

Total 5065

Table 5.1 - Primary Schools in Study Area showing current enrolment 1 Enrolment Data could not be obtained for this private National & Secondary School. This ﬁgure is half the total capacity of the school

5.2 Post Primary Schools

Within a 2.5km radius of the site there are 8 Secondary Schools. These schools have a current enrolment of 3223 students. (See Figure 5.2 and Table 5.2 below.)

There are 2422, 13-18 year olds living in the study area. It is expected that some children from outside of the study area will attend these schools but the enrolment ﬁgures show that there is a marked discrepancy between the enrolment ﬁgures and the actual number of 13-18 year olds in the study area in 2016. Even taking into account an increase of 10% of the number of 13-18 year olds in the study area to 2664, there is still ample capacity in the cumulative capacity of these schools.

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Figure 5.2 Map showing Secondary Schools in Study Area

No.on Map School Name Address Enrolment 2019/2020 (Blue)

1 Rosemount School Lambs Cross 182

2 St Raphaela Secondry School Stillorgan 569

3 Stepaside Educate Together Stepaside 214

4 Nord Anglia International Leopardstown 400 School(private)

5 St Benildus College Kilmacud 807

6 Wesley Collge Ballinteer 459

7 St Tiernans Community College Dundrum 185

8 Ballinteer Community School Ballinteer 407

Total 3223

Table 5.2 - Post Primary Schools in Study Area showing current enrolment 1 Enrolment Data could not be obtained for this private National & Secondary School. This ﬁgure is half the total capacity of the school

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Considering the proposed development will potentially require just 11 post primary school places, this represents just 0.34% of the total number of students enrolled in the study area.

From examination of the website, the nearest secondary school Rosmont Secondary School (https:// rosemont.ie) which is located within a 10 minute walk of the proposed development site. This school alone has 43 places available for the 2020/2021 enrolment year. This one school therefore could take all the potential students from the proposed development.

Summary: There are 14 Primary Schools and 8 Post Primary Schools in the Study Area with cumulative enrolment of 5065 and 3223 students respectively. These enrolment ﬁgures are far in excess of the number of students of school going age in the study area. The proposed development will potentially require just 18 primary/national school places which represents just 0.44% of the total number of students enrolled in the study area. Regarding post primary school places, the proposed development will potentially require just 11 post primary school places are required to serve the proposed development, this represents just 0.34% of the total number of students enrolled. in the study area.

6.0 FUTURE SCHOOL DEVELOPMENT

6.1 Proposed New Schools in Vicinity of Site

Permission has been granted by An Bord Pleanala for a new Ballinteer Educate Together National School in the grounds of St Tiernan’s community School in Balally. It is understood from the Department of Education’s Website that the development is at Stage 3 Tender.

7.2 Sites zoned for New Schools

The following sites have been designated for new schools as detailed in the Ballyogan and Environs Local Area Plan 2019-2025. A decision as to whether these sites are to be for primary or post primary schools has not as yet being made. • Site in Kilgobbin South • Site at Racecourse South

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• Site at Glencairn North

In addition, the Dún-Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022 designates the following lands: • Legionaries of Christ Lands, Sandyford- Identiﬁed under Policy SLO 112 of the Dún-Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022 for a primary and post-primary school. .

Summary: There is one new primary school, Ballinteer Educate Together at late stage tender which is within a 10 minute Bus Ride of the proposed development site. Four other sites have been identiﬁed for sites for new schools in the Ballyogan and Environs Local Area Plan 2019-2025 and the Dún-Laoghaire Rathdown County Development Plan 2016-2022

8.0 CUMULATIVE ASSESSMENT

8.1 Planning History in Area

It is recognised there are a number of recent developments permitted in the area including on the adjoining site which was for Permission for a residential development consisting of the demolition of the existing dwelling house and sheds and the construction of 67 no. apartments in 3 no. three storey plus penthouse blocks (Blocks A, B & C) containing in total 5 no. one bed units, 48 no. two bed units and 14 no. three bed units. The development will also include a basement (under blocks B & C), on surface car parking, the construction of a new site entrance from the public road and all associated site and landscaping works on a 1.09 hectare site and which was Granted on Appeal on 27th of March 2019

This development has the potential to have a population of 122 persons comprising of potentially 8 persons of primary school going age and 5 persons of post primary school going age. Again these numbers are insignﬁcant when compared to the number of school children enrolled in the study area i.e. 3223 primary and 2422 post primary. Other developments which have the beneﬁt of permission in the study area are set out in Table A1 in the Appendices

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8.0 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

An analysis of the school demand and capacity in the area has been undertaken as part of this School Demands Assessment. The review of existing and planned primary and post primary school facilities within the study area has found that there is a signiﬁcant number of existing primary and secondary schools in the area, and a number of planned schools, to cater for the projected future population increase in the area, and the proposed demand expected to be generated from the proposed development.

It is noted in particular that the proposed development which comprises for the most part of one and two bedroomed apartments will only generate a small number of potential persons of school going age. It is estimated that the proposed development will potentially require just 18 primary/national school places, this represents just 0.44% of the total number of students enrolled in the study area which is 5065 students. Regarding post primary school places, the proposed development will potentially require just 11 post primary school places are required to serve the proposed development, this represents just 0.34% of the total number of students enrolled in the study area (3223 students)

In conjunction with the above the Department of Education forecasts which suggest that enrolment of students in primary schools has peaked and enrolment in post primary schools is to peak in 2024. Thereafter there will be a signiﬁcant downward trend in enrolment up to 2038.

With respect of the above and having regard to these estimated ﬁgures for additional school demand that will result as a consequence of the proposed development and having regard to the considerable school provision in the surrounding area of the subject site, and the accessibility of the site to further schools via frequent and convenient public transport, it is considered reasonable to estimate that the persons of school going age that will result as a consequence of the proposed development can be accommodated within the existing and planned school infrastructure in the area

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APPENDICES

Reg. Ref Location Description Decision

ABP - 302580-19 Glencarin, Demolition of an existing house and Granted 20th Murphystown the construction of 243 no. December 2018 Way D18 apartments, 98 no. homes, childcare facility and associated site works. The application site is located adjacent to Glencairn House, which is a protected structure under RPS Ref. No. 1643. The Record of Protected Structures

ABP - 304258-19 Phase 1 C Clay A seven-year planning permission Granted 31st July Farm, for a residential development of 410 2019 Ballyogan Road no. residential units and a childcare D18 facility with all associated site works.

ABP - 301522-19 Phase 2 Clay 927 no. residential units (355 no. Granted 3rd August Farm, houses and 572 no. apartments), a 2018 Ballyogan Road D18 neighbourhood centre containing a childcare facility and 2 no. retail units, the associated section of the Clay Farm Loop Road from the bridge road link with Phase 1 to the south western site boundary, associated internal roads, pedestrian and cycle paths, open space, and all associated site and infrastructural works.

Table A1 - Relevant Planning Permissions in Proximity of Site

Page 16 Electoral District Total Population Total Population House/ Flat/Apartment Bed Sit Caravan / Not Total (living in private (living in private Bungalow Mobile Stated Private accommodation) accommodation Home Households 2016 2011

Glencullen 19215 17077 4116 2271 (5218 persons) 0 5 58 6450

Dundrum 7616 6867 1396 1557 (3518 pesons) 1 3 18 2975 Sandyford

Dundrum-Balally 7805 6907 1625 1476 (3282) 0 0 1 3119

Stillorgan 3968 3865 1336 103 (217 persons) 1 0 16 1336 Kilmacud

Dundrum 3290 3184 795 438 (950 persons) 1 0 4 1238 Kilmacud

Ballinteer 1574 1507 589 2 (3 persons) 0 0 2 593 Meadowbroads

Ballinteer 5464 5366 1404 614 (1309 persons) 0 0 6 2204 Woodpark

Ballinteer 2565 2655 947 3 (10 persons) 0 0 7 957 Broadford

Ballinteer 2018 2045 765 7 (10 persons) 0 0 7 779 Ludford

Stillorgan Mervile 3171 2696 863 240 (539 persons) 1 0 5 1109

Tribadden 750 661 158 100 (217 persons) 1 2 1 202

Stillorgan 2703 2419 661 410 (855 persons) 0 0 4 1075 Lepordstown

Totals 60139 55,249 7167 (12,272 persons)

Average Persons/ 8.13% increase in 1.83 persons per ﬂat/ Household population 2011-2016 apartment

Table A2- Population living in Private Accommodation 4-12 year olds 13-18 year olds

Glencullen 3010 1773

Dundrum Sandyford 730 358

Dundrum Balally 742 399

Stillorgan Kilmacud 398 293

Dundrum Kilmacud 313 193

Ballinteer Meadowlands 184 88

Ballinteer Woodpark 658 350

Ballinteer Broadford 220 88

Ballinteer Ludford 95 104

Stillorgan Mervile 389 262

Tribadden 103 264

Stillorgan Lepordstown 245 123

Totals 4067 2422

Table A3 School Going Age Proﬁle