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BUY TP ICICI Bank Q2FY21 Result Review ICICI Bank BUY TP Rs500 Key Stock Data CMP Rs393 Bloomberg / Reuters ICICIBC IN/ICBK.BO Potential upside / downside 27% Sector Banking Collection efficiency at 97% of pre-covid levels Previous Rating BUY Shares o/s (mn) 6,897 Summary V/s Consensus Market cap. (Rs mn) 2,707,610 ICICI Bank reported strong profitability with PBT growth at 20% YoY; PAT growth (up 550% EPS (Rs) FY21E FY22E FY23E Market cap. (US$ mn) 36,535 YoY) not comparable due to one off impact of deferred tax in corresponding quarter last IDBI Capital 16.6 23.1 27.2 3-m daily average value (Rs mn) 5,522.6 year. Asset quality on proforma basis improved with GNPA at 5.36% vs 5.46% QoQ; Consensus 17.8 24.8 32.0 52-week high / low Rs552/269 however slippage ratio was higher on sequential basis. Management said collection % difference (6.9) (7.0) (15.1) Sensex / Nifty 39,614 / 11,642 efficiency is at 97% of pre-covid levels for retail portfolio. NII grew by 16% YoY against a loan growth of 6% YoY; margins decline due to higher liquidity. PPoP grew by 20% YoY as cost to income ratio improved (38% vs 44% YoY). (ICICIB) is well prepared among its peers Shareholding Pattern (%) Relative to Sensex (%) to weather the COVID-19 storm with a) highest PCR (at 81.5%), b) highest Covid-19 Promoters 0.0 130.0 provisions (1.3% of advances), and c) higher home loan portfolio (32% of advances). Strong FII 45.7 115.0 liability franchise and higher Tier I capital ratio will advantage bank when the economy DII 41.1 100.0 growth recovers. We introduce FY23 estimates in this report. We roll-over to FY23E and Public 13.2 re-iterate ‘BUY’ with a new TP of Rs.500 (earlier Rs.460), valuing parent business at Rs.380 85.0 (1.55X P/ABV FY23E) and rest for the subsidiaries. 70.0 Price Performance (%) Key Highlights and Investment Rationale 55.0 -1m -3m -12m Jul-20 Jul-19 Jan-20 Advances growth remain stable, Deposits growth remain strong: Advances growth Jun-20 Oct-19 Oct-20 Apr-20 Sep-19 Feb-20 Sep-20 Dec-19 Aug-19 Aug-20 Nov-19 Mar-20 Absolute 10.6 13.8 (16.7) May-20 remain stable at 6% YoY (6% Q1FY21) led by domestic advances growth at 10% YoY while Rel to Sensex 6.5 8.8 (15.6) ICICI Bank Ltd. Sensex overseas book continue to decline (down 30% YoY) on a prudent strategy. Retail / SME portfolio continue to grow strongly at 13%/22% YoY respectively while corporate book Financial snapshot (Rs mn) grew slowly at 3% YoY. Deposit growth remain strong at 19% YoY led by 26% YoY growth Year FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E FY2023E in term deposits; CASA ratio remain stable at 43.8%. NII 270,148 332,670 362,124 400,559 446,145 Asset quality remains stable: PCR at highest: GNPA on proforma basis declined by 10bps Net Profit 33,634 79,308 107,329 149,529 176,324 QoQ to 5.36%; NNPA declined by 23bps QoQ to 1%as PCR improved to 81.5% which is the EPS (Rs) 5.2 12.3 16.6 23.1 27.2 highest among its peers. Sliipage ratio increased on sequential basis due to downgrades ABV (Rs) 147.2 164.6 183.9 213.1 246.1 from BB& below book. BB & below book declined by 6% QoQ; however need to watch PER (x) 75.2 32.0 23.7 17.0 14.4 out for the asset quality impact. Also, Covid-19 related provisions stood 87.72bn (1.34% P/ABV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.6 of advances) provides the cushion on the P&L. ROE (%) 3.2 7.1 8.6 10.5 10.7 NIMs declined QoQ; Cost to income ratio inched up QoQ: NIMs declined by 12bps QoQ ROA (%) 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 to 3.57% led by negative carry from higher liquidity on the balance sheet along with GNPA (%) 7.4 6.0 6.8 6.4 6.3 higher slippages. Although lower liquidity going forward as growth picks up could support NNPA (%) 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 margins while higher slippages could put pressure. Cost to income ratio increased to 38% CAR 16.9 16.1 16.9 17.1 17.4 on sequential baisis due to high other operating expenses (up 28% QoQ). Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research Bunty Chawla | [email protected] | +91-22-2217 1814 Nikhil Vaishnav | [email protected] | +91-22-2217 1819 November 1, 2020 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Conference Call Highlights Disbursement- Disbursement in retail products seen MoM improvement. Mortgage disbursement reaches pre-covid level and was all time high is Sept’20. Auto loans continue to increase from June and reach pre-covid level (Sept’20) while reflecting rise in PV sales. Rural portfolio had cross pre-covid level in Aug’20 and Sept’20. CV and PL portfolio had increased QoQ but remain below pre-covid level. Credit card spends have reaches 85% of pre-covid level led by increase in spend in health & wellness, electronics and ecommerce. ECLGS- Bank Sanctions Rs160bn to 187,000 borrowers within that Rs106bn has been disbursed. Collection efficiency- Demand resolutions for retail EMI and credit card portfolio were ~97% of pre-covid level in Sept’20. Overdue (Sept’20) in retail EMI and credit card portfolio was 4% higher than normal pre-covid level and expect to moderate further as increase in collection efficiency. Overdue (Sept’20) in rural portfolio was 1% higher than normal pre-covid level. Collection in SME and BB was quite good and overdue (Sept’20) is now similar to pre-covid level. Domestic and overseas corporate loan portfolio overdue (Sept’20) was less than 3% of portfolio. Restructuring- Received request from fund base corporate and SME borrowers amounting to Rs21bn. Expect corporate loan would be less than 1% of portfolio under resolution. Would consist of loans from BB rated and outside from BB bookalso. Flexi loan- a new product (type of business loans) where bank check customer profile against asset given and on the basis of that will provide credit line against profile which is flexible in nature. NPA- Due to Supreme Court order, Bank has not classified Rs14.10bn of loans as NPA while provided Rs4.97bn for same. On proforma basis, GNPA would have been 5.36% and NNPA would be 1.12%. 2 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Others highlights- Provision made in Q4FY20 and Q1FY21 is adequate to protect the balancesheet from credit losses due to Covid. In 2HFY21 will see surge in GNPA and resolution (framed by RBI) and moratorium impact. Expect employee count to increase in 2HFY21. 99% of personal and credit customers having salary account with the bank and continue to receive salary in Sept’20. Some of the business linked expenses would go up in 2HFY21 as increase in business from current level. From cashflow perspective, bank seeing that business loan (Rs 1-1.5Cr size) and small retail SME in rural credit submission of same is now above pre-covid levels. Expect from Dec’20 onwards some decline in excess liquidity from current level while looking to have surplus liquidity till Mar’21. 2 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Key charts that depicts our thesis Exhibit 1: Adequate cushion made to weather the COVID-19 storm. 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% HDFC Bank ICICI Bank Axis Bank Kotak Bank Indusind Bank % Covid provision Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research Exhibit 2: PCR increased and better among its peers. 90.0 85.0 81.5 77.0 80.0 77.0 74.5 75.6 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 HDFC ICICI KMB Axis IIB PCR (%) Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research 3 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Exhibit 3: Home loan portfolio highest among its peers. 35.0% 32.4% 30.0% 23.9% 25.0% 23.3% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 6.1% 4.7% 5.0% 0.0% HDFC Bank ICICI Bank KMB Axis Bank IIB Home loan portfolio (% of total advance) Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research; Note: Axis, Kotak and IIB includes LAP portfolio 4 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Exhibit 4: Quarterly Snapshot (Rs mn) Year-end: March Q2FY21 Q2FY20 Q1FY21 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Interest Income 196,224 185,653 199,244 5.7 (1.5) Interest Expenses 102,564 105,079 106,446 (2.4) (3.6) Net Interest Income 93,660 80,574 92,798 16.2 0.9 NIM Calc. (%) 3.6 3.6 3.7 (7 bps) (12 bps) Non-Interest Income 40,283 41,942 61,426 (4.0) (34.4) Operating Income 133,943 122,516 154,224 9.3 (13.2) Staff Cost 19,673 21,413 21,661 (8.1) (9.2) Other Op Exp 31,660 32,362 24,798 (2.2) 27.7 Total Operating Expenses 51,333 53,775 46,459 (4.5) 10.5 Cost to Income (%) 38.3 43.9 30.1 (557 bps) 820 bps Operating Profit 82,610 68,741 107,765 20.2 (23.3) Provisions 29,953 25,069 75,940 19.5 (60.6) PBT 52,657 43,672 31,825 20.6 65.5 Tax 10,144 37,123 5,833 (72.7) 73.9 -effective tax rate 19.3 85.0 18.3 (6574 bps) 94 bps PAT 42,513 6,549 25,992 549.2 63.6 EPS (Rs) 6.2 1.0 4.0 508.0 53.6 BV (Rs) 199.6 171.2 183.1 16.6 9.0 Deposits 8,329,356 6,962,730 8,016,223 19.6 3.9 Advances 6,526,080 6,133,587 6,312,146 6.4 3.4 Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research 5 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Exhibit 5: ROE Decomposition (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E NII 2.93 3.23 3.20 3.27 3.27 Fees 1.11 1.13 0.94 1.02 1.02 Other Income 0.46 0.47 0.58 0.43 0.43 Net Revenue 4.50 4.82 4.72 4.72 4.73 Op.Exp 1.96 2.10 1.91 1.93 1.85 Op.Profit 2.54 2.72 2.81 2.79 2.87 Provisions 2.13 1.36 1.54 1.16 1.15 PBT 0.41 1.36 1.27 1.63 1.73 Tax 0.04 0.59 0.32 0.41 0.44 ROA 0.36 0.77 0.95 1.22 1.29 Leverage (x) 8.63 9.17 9.08 8.59 8.30 ROE 3.15 7.05 8.61 10.49 10.73 Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research Exhibit 6: One-year forward P/ABV 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 Jul-12 Jan-09 Jan-16 Jan-19 Jun-08 Jun-15 Jun-18 Oct-10 Oct-20 Apr-14 Apr-17 Feb-13 Sep-13 Dec-11 Aug-09 Aug-16 Aug-19 Nov-14 Nov-07 Nov-17 Mar-07 Mar-10 Mar-20 May-11 1 yr fwd P/BV -SD 0.5 Avg 1.1 +SD 1.9 Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research 6 ICICI Bank | Q2FY21 Result Review Financial Summary Profit & Loss Account (Rs mn) Financial Ratios (%) Year-end: March FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Year-end:
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