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BUY TP ICICI Bank Initiating Coverage ICICI Bank BUY TP Rs460 Key Stock Data CMP Rs392 Bloomberg / Reuters ICICIBC IN/ICBK.BO Better prepared to pass through storm Potential upside / downside +17% Sector Banking Shares o/s (mn) 6,896 V/s Consensus Summary Market cap. (Rs mn) 2,706,199 ICICI Bank (ICICIB) is well prepared among its peers to weather the COVID-19 storm with a) EPS (Rs) FY21E FY22E Market cap. (US$ mn) 39,073 highest PCR (at 75%), b) highest Covid-19 provisions (1.3% of advances), and c) higher home IDBI Capital 15.9 22.4 3-m daily average value (Rs mn) 4,415.1 loan portfolio (31% of advances). Strong liability franchise and higher Tier I capital ratio will Consensus 18.4 25.3 52-week high / low Rs552/269 advantage bank when the economy growth recovers. We expect credit growth for the bank % difference (13.5) (11.3) Sensex / Nifty 39,113 / 11,559 to remain higher than the banking industry led by market share gain. We expect loan growth and margin to improve, thus resulting into 50bps YoY improvement in ROA over FY20- FY22E to 1.3%. Initiate on ICICB with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs.460, valuing parent business at Shareholding Pattern (%) Relative to Sensex (%) Rs.343 (1.55X P/ABV FY22E) and rest for the subsidiaries. While the uncertainty over the impact of Promoters 0.0 140.0 130.0 COVID-19 would weigh on the valuation in the near term but we expect ICICIB to emerge stronger FII 43.0 120.0 given strength in its business model. DII 43.2 110.0 100.0 Public 13.8 Key Highlights and Investment Rationale 90.0 Strategy to focus on retail growth supported higher loan growth than industry: ICICIB 80.0 70.0 loan book growth impacted post GFC 2008, leading to sharp increase in delinquencies in Price Performance (%) 60.0 unsecured book. This resulted in lower credit growth as compared to banking industry -1m -3m -12m Jul-19 Jul-20 Jan-20 Jun-19 Jun-20 Oct-19 Apr-20 Sep-19 Feb-20 over FY11-FY13. However, strategy change with focus on retail portfolio and secured Dec-19 Aug-19 Aug-20 Nov-19 Mar-20 May-20 Absolute 2.8 34.1 (4.7) May-19 lending, FY14 onwards bank has reported credit growth above banking industry averages. Rel to Sensex 0.2 6.4 (9.1) ICICI Bank Ltd. Sensex Provision coverage one of the highest among peers; High Covid-19 related provisions provide comfort: ICICIB conservatively focused on improving the PCR to safeguard the Financial snapshot (Rs mn) balance sheet risk in uncertain environment which resulted in increase in the PCR (excl. Year FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E technical w/offs) from low of 40% in FY17 to 75.6% FY20. It has one of the highest PCR NII 230,258 270,148 332,670 365,276 401,692 among its peer banks. Also, on prudent basis, bank has made Covid-19 related provisions of Net Profit 67,773 33,634 79,308 109,687 154,244 Rs27.25bn in Q4FY20 and Rs.55.5bn in Q1FY21 (total Covid-19 provisions at 1.3% of advances) EPS (Rs) 10.5 5.2 12.3 15.9 22.4 which should cushion the balance sheet from the slippages post moratorium phase 2 ends in ABV (Rs) 120.3 147.2 164.6 193.1 221.4 Aug’20. PER (x) 36.9 74.6 31.8 24.5 17.4 Asset quality improved in last 2 years; stressed sector corporate NPAs declined: After P/ABV (x) 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.0 1.8 witnessing deterioration in asset quality during FY16-18 due to delinquencies from ROE (%) 6.6 3.2 7.1 8.3 9.8 corporate book exposure to sectors such as Infrastructure (Power), Mining, Metal and ROA (%) 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 Metal products, Construction etc. ICICIB has reduced corporate exposure % share by GNPA (%) 9.9 7.4 6.0 6.8 6.4 FY20. GNPA declined in last 2 years from the highs of 9.9% in FY18 to 6.1% in FY20 led by NNPA (%) 5.4 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.9 lower slippages ratio and better recovery (including upgrades). As few large accounts CAR 18.4 16.9 16.1 18.5 18.2 (Essar Steel, Bhushan Steel) under IBC got resolved during the year. Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research August 27, 2020 ICICI Bank | Initiating Coverage Strategy to focus on retail growth has supported higher loan growth than industry ICICIB loan book growth was impacted post global meltdown (2008) due to sharp increase in delinquencies in unsecured book which resulted in lower credit growth as compared to banking industry. However, strategy has changed post 2008 crises, with focus on retail portfolio and secured. This helped ICICIB, to report strong credit growth above banking industry average post FY14. Banking industry credit grew by 8.9% CAGR (FY14-20) while bank reported credit growth at 11.3% CAGR, led by strong retail portfolio growth. Retail portfolio grew at 20.7% CAGR (FY14-20) and this led to increase in its percentage (of xx) share from 39% in FY14 to 63% FY20. Given the Covid-19 impact on the economy, credit growth to slowdown in FY21 to single digit; however economy bounce back is expected in FY22 (IMF GDP growth forecast at +6% in CY2021). This should support strong credit growth for the bank and gain in its market share, as ICICIB has strong liability franchise and capital adequacy ratio. Exhibit 1: Advances % of retail 63.2% 7,000 60.1% 70.0% 56.6% 6,000 51.8% 60.0% 46.6% 5,000 42.4% 50.0% 39.0% 4,000 40.0% 3,000 30.0% 2,000 20.0% 1,000 10.0% 3,387 3,875 4,353 4,642 5,124 5,866 6,453 - 0.0% FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Advances (in bn) Retail (%) Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research Exhibit 2: Loan growth significantly outperformed industry since FY14 (YoY, %) 20.0% 18.1%17.3% 15.9% 16.7% 14.4% 14.5% 14.4% 14.5% 15.0% 12.3% 11.0% 9.7% 10.4% 10.0% 10.0% 6.9% 7.8% 6.7% 5.9% 5.0% 2.8% 0.0% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Banking industry ICICI Bank Source: RBI, Company; IDBI Capital Research 2 ICICI Bank | Initiating Coverage ICICIB loan growth CAGR lower than its peers; however Domestic book growth CAGR in line with its peers Bank’s loan book growth has underperformed its peer banks as focus to reduce the overseas book (International) resulted in decline. Since March 2016, the overseas branches loan portfolio has reduced by about 50% in absolute US dollar terms and its share in the total loan portfolio has decreased from its peak of 24% in 2014-15 to about 8% at March 31, 2020. If adjusted for international book, Domestic book grew at 15% CAGR (FY16-20) which is in-line with its peer banks. Exhibit 3: ICICI bank Loan growth CAGR (FY16-20) for domestic book at ~15% 25.0% 23.7% 20.9% 20.0% 16.7% 14.0% 15.0% 10.3% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% HDFC Bank ICICI Bank KMB Axis Bank IIB Advance growth CAGR FY16-20 Source: Company, IDBI Capital Research; Home loans remains a major contrbution to Retail portfolio ICICIB retail credit book was skewed towards unsecured products like personal loans and credit cards in FY09 (18% of retail portfolio) and this has resulted in higher delinquencies during global financial crisis. But with the change in strategy towards secured portfolio, loan mix has undergone significant realignment resulted in unsecured product’s % share declining to 6% in FY14. However, mortgage loan (54% at FY14) continues to remain major contributor of retail portfolio. Home loan comprise about 70% of the total mortgage portfolio (49% FY20) and the balance is predominantly loans against property. It is geographically well diversified and has been built on fundamental premises of cash flow assessment of underlying borrower as well as meeting the legal and technical standards of the Bank for the property being mortgaged. Mortgage portfolio grew at 19% CAGR (FY14-20) with average loan-to-value ratio of the home loan portfolio is at about 65%. With risk management filters in place and focus on cross sell through its existing customers, unsecured portfolio grew at low base from FY14 onwards. Personal cards and credit card portfolio grew at 50% and 30% CAGR (FY14-20) respectively 2 ICICI Bank | Initiating Coverage resulted into % share of unsecured portfolio under retail segment increased from 6% in FY14 to 15% in FY20. Multiple credit filters are used to assess the customer’s overall credit behavior which includes models to identify and exclude customers who can potentially overleverage. Portfolio largely comprises of salaried customers. Others majorly comprises of Rural portfolio which grew at 22% CAGR (FY14-20) led by large network as bank’s half of branches (5228) are in rural and semi urban. Rural areas are supported by a network of branches, on-field staff and business correspondents which provides last-mile access in remote areas. We expect retail loan portfolio continue to drive the credit growth with mortgage portfolio to have majority of share; also SME book although at low base should continue to grow with support from credit guarantee scheme.
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