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2019 Budget Commentary and Tax Highlights November 2018 Ghana’S Minister of Finance, Hon

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2019 Budget Commentary and Tax Highlights November 2018 Ghana’S Minister of Finance, Hon Ghana 2019 budget commentary and tax highlights November 2018 Ghana’s Minister of Finance, Hon. Ken Ofori-Atta, presented the 2019 budget statement and economic policy to Parliament on Thursday 15 November, 2018. The 2019 budget statement and economic policy is under the theme “A Stronger Economy for Jobs and Prosperity”. Accordingly, the budget is centered on accelerating government’s programme of growing the economy, protecting the vulnerable, and creating jobs and prosperity for the Ghanaian people over the next financial year. The budget statement also includes a number of tax policy proposals focused on enhancing domestic revenue mobilization. Where legislative enactments are required, the proposals are expected to be submitted to Parliament for approval and subsequent amendment/enactment of legislations to make them effective. In this publication, we provide commentary on the key policy initiatives for 2019 and highlights of the main tax proposals in the budget statement and economic policy. Contents 04 06 14 Budget at a Glance Economy and Sectoral Outlook for 2019 Tax Policy Proposals The 2019 budget focuses on post Key highlights of government’s efforts and With growth in government revenue and IMF government interventions with highlights on proposals across the various sectors of the propelled productivity for local industries being key macro economic variables. economy. key considerations for the 2019 budget, govern- ment has proposed a number of tax policies. Budget at a Glance Economic Revenue Expenditure Public Growth Trends Trends Debt GDP growth Revenue outlook for 2019 Expenditure projections Trends in public debt and debt • IMF’s forecast for global GDP growth in 2019 is Summary of government’s expenditure 2018 and 2019 budget accumulation expected to remain at 3.7%. Projected domestic revenue for 2019 (GHS billions) • Overall GDP for Ghana is projected to grow by 7.6% in 2019, up from 5.6% in 2018. Trends in public debt and debt accumulation • Non oil GDP growth is estimated at 6.2% in 2019. 180,000 70% Total 45.3 160,000 56% 57% 56% 57% 60% Tax Revenue 51% 140,000 43% 86,648 50% GDP growth forecast (2019 - 2022) 120,000 Non-Tax 100,000 75,847 40% Revenue 9.6 68,860 80,000 30% 84,192 GHS million 59,913 60,000 44,530 66,769 20% Other 40,000 25,827 53,403 40,322 10% 3.0 Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy 20,000 35,040 Revenue 27,224 - - 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sep-18 Summary of Central Government Domestic External Gross Public debt/GDP Grants 0.1 Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy Overall GDP (incl. oil) Overall GDP (excl. oil) Fiscal Operations (2018 - 2022) 10 20 30 40 50 GHS’ Million 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Projected Budget Medium-Term Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy Outturn Debt to GDP (2013-2018) Total revenue and grants 46,813 58,905 67,818 74,746 79,405 September & of rebased GDP 15.7% 17.1% 17.1% 16.6% 15.2% New GDP Series 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Full year domestic revenue collection is projected GHS Inflation targets Total expenditure 57,828 73,441 82,365 89,263 95,368 Old GDP Series 57.79 billion, representing an annual growth of 25.5% over % of rebased GDP 19.4% 21.3% 20.8% 19.8% 18.3% the projected outturn for 2018 driven mainly by tax Gross external debt/GDP 27.7% 39.3% 43.8% 41.2% 36.8% 35.9% revenue. Non-interest expenditure 42,910 66,347 67,818 71,264 76,550 Gross Domestic debt/GDP 29.1% 30.9% 29.4% 31.9% 32.4% 34.8% % of rebased GDP 14.4% 16.8% 17.1% 15.8% 14.7% Gross Public/GDP 56.8% 70.2% 73.2% 73.1% 69.3% 70.7% End of Sept. 2018 2019 Target Budget Balance (11,015) (14,536) (14,547) (14,522) (15,963) New GDP Series period % of rebased GDP (3.7%) (4.2%) (3.7%) (3.2%) (3.1%) inflation 9.8% 8.0% Gross external debt/GDP 20.9% 28.7% 33.2% 32.0% 29.6% 29.0% Budget deficit Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy Gross Domestic debt/GDP 22.0% 22.5% 22.4% 24.8% 26.0% 28.2% Gross Public/GDP 42.9% 51.2% 55.6% 56.9% 55.6% 57.2% • The largest components of the projected expenditure • The current account deficit of GHS 9 billion is expected Inflation expected to remain in single digit and decline are compensation of employees, interest payments Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy to remain low on the back of continued fiscal further to 8.0% in 2019. and grants to other government agencies consolidation and improved revenue prospects from (subventions) increased oil and gas production. • Interest payments are projected to inch up to GHS 18.6 • The current deficit is projected to end 2018 at 3.2% of billion or 25% of total revenue projected for 2019. GDP and further decline to 3.1% of GDP in 2019 before Interest payments exceeds capital expenditure and Public Debt decreasing further to 2.9% of GDP by 2020 Exchange rate goods and services. Exchange rate development - end of october • Government has outlined four initiatives which could 20 18 potentially drive expenditure towards a wider budget Overall public debt grew by 20 20 20 Exchange rate development - end of October 18 19 20 deficit. These are summarized below 19.8% in 2018 mainly as a result of the government’s bailout of the Description 2018 2017 19.8% seven local banks (at about GHS Top 4 initiatives with likely 9.9billion). Cedi/dollar depreciation 7.6% 4.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% Cedi/pound depreciation 4.0% 11.9% significant impact on expenditure Cedi/euro depreciation 4.4% 14.6% GHS Million Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy Free SHS 1,683 Infrastructure for Poverty Eradication Programme 1,320 National Builders Corp 850 Planting for Foods and Jobs 380 Total 4,233 Source: 2019 Budget Statement and Economic policy Ghana 2019 Budget Commentary | Highlights of key tax policy proposals Highlights of key tax 1 2 3 Review of personal income tax Extension of tax stamp policy to Shift point of withholding tax on policy band to reduce top marginal tax include the textile industry to curb income from small scale mining to from 35% on monthly taxable smuggling and counterfeiting point of export of minerals. proposals income above GHS10,000 to 30% within the industry. on monthly taxable income exceeding GHS20,000. 4 5 6 Supply of locally made textiles to be Creation of special dispensation Strict enforcement of the use Tax subject to VAT at a rate of zero for companies who commit addi- Identification Numbers (TIN) and percent for a period of three years. tional funds to support govern- application of sanctions against ment initiatives – corporate tax institutions and individuals that deductions can be made for such flout implementation. contributions to reduce taxable income of the companies. 7 8 Enhance valuation of real proper- Intensify tax compliance measures ties and collection of property such as audits and prosecution of taxes. tax defaulters. 05 Ghana 2019 Budget Commentary | Economy and Sectoral Outlook for 2019 Economy and Sectoral Outlook for 2019 Banking, capital markets and Education insurance Energy Health 06 Ghana 2019 Budget Commentary | Economy and Sectoral Outlook for 2019 Banking The implementation of the supervisory framework for Basel II/III (Capital Require- The Government announced additional policies to ment Directive), will strengthen banks’ risk improve and sanitise the banking sector. management practices by ensuring that banks only assume risks that are proportion- • The completion of the implementation of the ate to their capital. Basel II/III supervisory framework. • The revision of the risk-based supervisory The Ghana Deposit Protection Scheme framework for bank examination on risk would ensure that depositors’ funds are safe issues. by providing an additional layer of protection • Constituting the Ghana Deposit Protection in addition to the Central Bank's oversight. Scheme in 2019. Banking, capital Capital markets The profile of Ghana’s capital market has improved significantly over the last few markets and • The Government of Ghana intends to years. In the debt capital markets, secondary develop a 10-year Capital Market Master market activity have picked up, with strong Plan. participation of off-shore fixed income insurance • SEC has finalised works on the Real Estate funds. Government issuances and a strong Investment Trust (REIT) guidelines to be emerging appetite for corporate bonds will implemented in 2019. continue to drive market activity. The fast growing pensions sector provides a strong captive demand for fixed income securities, and also provides liquidity for secondary market activity. In the equities market, the listing of MTN has improved overall market outlook. However, challenges over liquidity of the stock market remains unchanged. The proposed Capital Market Master Plan must endeavor to provide incentives for companies especially multinationals and players in specific indus- tries such as banking and insurance to list on the market. 07 Ghana 2019 Budget Commentary | Economy and Sectoral Outlook for 2019 Pension Total pension assets are projected to exceed GHS 25 billion by the end of 2018. • The National Pensions Regulatory Authority Pension funds are increasingly becoming a (NPRA) projected total pension assets will major source of funded liquidity to the increase to GHS25 billion by end of 2018 and banking sector and the fast growing fixed GHS 34 billion in 2019. income market.
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