Panics, Depressions, and Recessions

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Panics, Depressions, and Recessions Panics, Depressions, and Recessions Panic of 1819 (Monroe) cause(s): • overspeculation in the frontier (West) effect(s): • deflation • depression • bankruptcies • bank failures • unemployment • soup kitchens • debtors’ prisons • financial paralysis • “wildcat” western banks forced to the wall, foreclosed mortgages on farms • West hit really hard Panic of 1837 (Van Buren) cause(s): • rampant speculation • get-rich-quick schemes • Bank War • Specie Circular • crop failures • British bank failures (caused them to call in foreign loans from U.S.) effect(s): • hundreds of bank collapses • drop in commodity prices • decrease in sale of public land • unemployment • Van Buren responded with Divorce Bill (creation of independent treasury) Panic of 1857 (Buchanan) cause(s): • California gold inflated currency • Crimean War overstimulated growing of grain • overspeculation in land and railroads effect(s): • failure of over 5k businesses • widespread unemployment • North hardest hit; South not really affected because of cotton (led to idea of “King Cotton”) Panic of 1873 (Grant) cause(s) • more railroads, more mines, more factories, more grain fields than the market could handle • unpaid loans effect(s): • over 15k businesses bankrupt • unemployment • loss of savings in banks • caused clamor for inflationary policies • start of demand for silver coinage Depression of 1893 (Cleveland) cause(s): • overbuilding • overspeculation of railroads • labor disorders • agricultural depression • Sherman Silver Purchase Act 1890 effect(s): • about 8k businesses collapsed in six months • soup kitchens • hobo gangs • lasted for four years • J.P. Morgan lent $55 mil to the government in gold Roosevelt Panic of 1907 (TR) cause(s): • panic on Wall Street effect(s): • run-on banks • suicides • criminal indictments on speculators • paved way for reforms (Aldrich-Vreeland Act) Great Depression (Hoover and FDR) cause(s): • speculation • Black Tuesday (stock market crash) • business depression • overproduction of agricultural goods • not enough money going to wages and salaries to purchase goods • overexpansion of credit • European financial collapse from World War I effect(s): • Widespread unemployment • Hoovervilles • Wage cuts • over 5k banks collapsed • life savings of citizens gone • foreclosures • New Deal Roosevelt recession (1937-1938) cause(s): • new Social Security taxes cut into government payrolls • cutback of spending by administration effect(s): • deficit spending • Keynesian economics Early 1980s recession (Reagan’s presidency) cause(s): • federal budget deficit • trade deficit • falling oil prices • decreasing real estate prices effect(s): • severely affected savings and loan institutions and banks • leading stock market index dropped 508 points (“Black Monday”) .
Recommended publications
  • Marxist Crisis Theory and the Severity of the Current Economic Crisis
    Marxist Crisis Theory and the Severity of the Current Economic Crisis By David M. Kotz Department of Economics Thompson Hall University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, MA 01003, U.S.A. December, 2009 Email Address: [email protected] This paper was presented on a panel on "Heterodox Analyses of the Current Economic Crisis" sponsored by the Union for Radical Political Economics at the Allied Social Science Associations annual convention, Atlanta, January 4, 2010. Research Assistance was provided by Ann Werboff. It is a revised version of a paper "The Final Crisis: What Can Cause a System-Threatening Crisis of Capitalism," Science & Society 74(3), July 2010. Marxist Crisis Theory and the Current Crisis, December, 2009 1 The theory of economic crisis has long occupied an important place in Marxist theory. One reason is the belief that a severe economic crisis can play a key role in the supersession of capitalism and the transition to socialism. Some early Marxist writers sought to develop a breakdown theory of economic crisis, in which an absolute barrier is identified to the reproduction of capitalism.1 However, one need not follow such a mechanistic approach to regard economic crisis as central to the problem of transition to socialism. It seems highly plausible that a severe and long-lasting crisis of accumulation would create conditions that are potentially favorable for a transition, although such a crisis is no guarantee of that outcome.2 Marxist analysts generally agree that capitalism produces two qualitatively different kinds of economic crisis. One is the periodic business cycle recession, which is resolved after a relatively short period by the normal mechanisms of a capitalist economy, although since World War II government monetary and fiscal policy have often been employed to speed the end of the recession.
    [Show full text]
  • Price Spike Of
    United States Department of The "Great" Price Spike of '93: Agriculture Forest Service An Analysis of Lumber and Pacific Northwest Research Station Stum.page Pr=ces =n the Research Paper PNW-RP-476 Pac=f=c Northwest August 1994 Brent L. Sohngen and Richard W. Haynes ....~ ~i!i I 11~.............. pp~L~ ~ S if!i,: ~SS ~$~ ~ ~ S$ $ $_ ss sSSos'S S$ $ S$$ s$$SsSss s ss $ sss~ ~ S sSsS~ Sss S $~ $.~ $ S$ Authors BRENT L. SOHNGEN is a graduate student, Yale University School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, CT 06510; and RICHARD W. HAYNES is a research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, P.O. Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208-3890. Abstract Sohngen, Brent L.; Haynes, Richard W. 1994. The "great" price spike of '93: an analysis of lumber and stumpage prices in the Pacific Northwest. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-476. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 20 p. Lumber prices for coast Douglas-fir (Psuedotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco var. menziesil) swung rapidly from a low of $306 per thousand board feet (MBF) in September 1992 to a high of $495/MBF in March 1993. This price spike represented a sizable increase in the value of lumber over a short period, but it was not the histor- ical anomaly that many in the media would suggest. Using the theoretical relation between lumber and stumpage prices, we analyzed the interaction between these two markets over the past 82 years. Among our major findings were that there are distinct seasonal variations in monthly lumber and stumpage prices; over the longer term, these markets can be divided into three different periodsm1910 to 1944, 1945 to 1962, and 1963 to 1992; the most recent price spike did not match previous spikes in real terms; and the traditional lumber and stumpage price interaction became more significant with time but it does not seem to be as pronounced when we look at monthly prices.
    [Show full text]
  • Martin Van Buren: the Greatest American President
    SUBSCRIBE NOW AND RECEIVE CRISIS AND LEVIATHAN* FREE! “The Independent Review does not accept “The Independent Review is pronouncements of government officials nor the excellent.” conventional wisdom at face value.” —GARY BECKER, Noble Laureate —JOHN R. MACARTHUR, Publisher, Harper’s in Economic Sciences Subscribe to The Independent Review and receive a free book of your choice* such as the 25th Anniversary Edition of Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American Government, by Founding Editor Robert Higgs. This quarterly journal, guided by co-editors Christopher J. Coyne, and Michael C. Munger, and Robert M. Whaples offers leading-edge insights on today’s most critical issues in economics, healthcare, education, law, history, political science, philosophy, and sociology. Thought-provoking and educational, The Independent Review is blazing the way toward informed debate! Student? Educator? Journalist? Business or civic leader? Engaged citizen? This journal is for YOU! *Order today for more FREE book options Perfect for students or anyone on the go! The Independent Review is available on mobile devices or tablets: iOS devices, Amazon Kindle Fire, or Android through Magzter. INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE, 100 SWAN WAY, OAKLAND, CA 94621 • 800-927-8733 • [email protected] PROMO CODE IRA1703 Martin Van Buren The Greatest American President —————— ✦ —————— JEFFREY ROGERS HUMMEL resident Martin Van Buren does not usually receive high marks from histori- ans. Born of humble Dutch ancestry in December 1782 in the small, upstate PNew York village of Kinderhook, Van Buren gained admittance to the bar in 1803 without benefit of higher education. Building on a successful country legal practice, he became one of the Empire State’s most influential and prominent politi- cians while the state was surging ahead as the country’s wealthiest and most populous.
    [Show full text]
  • History of Banking in the U.S. (9/30/2010) Econ 310-004
    History of Banking in the U.S. (9/30/2010) Econ 310‐004 Definitions • independent treasury – separation of bank and state • laissez faire – transactions between private parties are free from state intervention, including restrictive regulations, taxes, tariffs and enforced monopolies • mercantilism – alliance between government and certain privileged merchants • interstate branch banking – the ability of a bank to have branches in more than one state • intrastate branch banking – the ability of a bank to have multiple branches in the same state • unit banking – no interstate or intrastate branching • fractional currency – currency in denominations less than a dollar (e.g., 5¢, 10¢, 25¢, etc.) • bond collateral requirement – dollar for dollar banknote to state bond ratio • wildcat banking – fraudulent banks setup in wilderness that made it very hard to redeem notes • inelastic currency – inability of the system to convert deposits into banknotes Principles • Banking has always been one of the most regulated industries. • Branching allows diversification. o Assets: Without branching banks only loan locally, so when the local economy goes bad, many loans default at once. o Liabilities: Without branching banks only get deposits locally, so when the local economy goes bad, many customers withdraw at once. • The stability of the bank system effects the reserve rate, not the other way around. • Bond collateral requirement led to more bank panics due to inelastic currency. Alexander Hamilton early state banks • Secretary of the Treasury (Washington) • 1776‐1837 • formed United States Mint • regulation at state level • got Morris to form Bank of North America • no general incorporation for banks • started Bank of New York • 9/31 states outlawed banking • architect of 1st bank of the United States • some states setup monopoly banks • killed by Aaron Burr (VP) in a duel • some still chartered banks • 6 states tried deposit/note insurance Andrew Jackson • President of U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • The UK Recession in Context — What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us?
    Research and analysis The UK recession in context 277 The UK recession in context — what do three centuries of data tell us? By Sally Hills and Ryland Thomas of the Bank’s Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division and Nicholas Dimsdale of The Queen’s College, Oxford.(1) The Quarterly Bulletin has a long tradition of using historical data to help analyse the latest developments in the UK economy. To mark the Bulletin’s 50th anniversary, this article places the recent UK recession in a long-run historical context. It draws on the extensive literature on UK economic history and analyses a wide range of macroeconomic and financial data going back to the 18th century. The UK economy has undergone major structural change over this period but such historical comparisons can provide lessons for the current economic situation. Introduction An overview of UK business cycles The UK economy recently suffered its deepest recession since Over the past half century, enormous effort has gone into the 1930s. The recent recession had several defining constructing historical national income data for the characteristics: it took place simultaneously with a global United Kingdom. First, annual GDP estimates were recession; the financial sector was both the source and constructed back to the mid-19th century, based on output, propagator of the crisis; the exchange rate depreciated income and expenditure approaches (Deane and Cole (1962), sharply; and there was a substantial loosening of monetary Deane (1968) and Feinstein (1972)). These were followed by policy alongside a marked increase in the fiscal deficit. But ‘balanced’ estimates of GDP growth that attempted to despite UK output falling by more than 6% between 2008 Q1 reconcile these different approaches from 1870 onwards and 2009 Q3, CPI inflation remains above the Government’s (Solomou and Weale (1991) and Sefton and Weale (1995)).
    [Show full text]
  • The Evolution of Fed Independence
    FEDERALRESERVE The Evolution of Fed Independence BY STEPHEN SLIVINSKI oday there is a consensus Wars, Depression, and How monetary policy that a central bank can best Dependence T contribute to good economic When the United States entered and central bank performance by pursuing price stabil- World War I in April 1917, the Federal ity — and that it should remain inde- Reserve almost instantly became the autonomy came pendent from political forces. In the primary vehicle for financing the war case of price stability, this understand- effort. The main function of the Fed of age ing evolved over decades of experi- during those war years was to lend ence. The notion of independence of money to banks to purchase “Liberty the central bank was more difficult to Loans” bonds from the U.S. Treasury. fulfill. They loaned the money at a discount- The original conception of the ed rate — not coincidentally lower Federal Reserve System when it was than the interest rate on the war bonds created in 1913 was meant to continue — to entice bond purchasers. After the spirit of the “independent treasury the war, the Federal Reserve Bank of system” that existed in the pre-Fed New York remained the official era. That system assumed that the U.S. fiscal agent of the U.S. Treasury Treasury would store its gold and Department. assets in its own vaults lest it unduly In the post-war years, the Fed influence the markets for credit and busied itself with maintaining the money. Ideally, Treasury meddling in newly reconstructed gold standard. what passed for monetary policy at the Its missteps in the wake of the stock time was to be avoided.
    [Show full text]
  • The Recent Evolution of the Natural Rate of Unemployment
    FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES The Recent Evolution of the Natural Rate of Unemployment Mary Daly Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Bart Hobijn Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Rob Valletta Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco January 2011 Working Paper 2011-05 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2011/wp11-05bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The Recent Evolution of the Natural Rate of Unemployment MARY DALY,* BART HOBIJN, AND ROB VALLETTA Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 101 Market Street San Francisco, CA 94105 January 17, 2011 ABSTRACT The U.S. economy is recovering from the financial crisis and ensuing deep recession, but the unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high. Some have argued that the persistent elevation of unemployment relative to historical norms reflects the fact that the shocks that hit the economy were especially disruptive to labor markets and likely to have long lasting effects. If such structural factors are at work they would result in a higher underlying natural or non- accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, implying that conventional monetary and fiscal policy should not be used in an attempt to return unemployment to its pre-recession levels. We investigate the hypothesis that the natural rate of unemployment has increased since the recession began, and if so, whether the underlying causes are transitory or persistent.
    [Show full text]
  • Framing the Global Economic Downturn Crisis Rhetoric and the Politics of Recessions
    Framing the global economic downturn Crisis rhetoric and the politics of recessions Framing the global economic downturn Crisis rhetoric and the politics of recessions Edited by Paul ’t Hart and Karen Tindall Published by ANU E Press The Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Email: [email protected] This title is also available online at: http://epress.anu.edu.au/global_economy_citation. html National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Framing the global economic downturn : crisis rhetoric and the politics of recessions / editor, Paul ‘t Hart, Karen Tindall. ISBN: 9781921666049 (pbk.) 9781921666056 (pdf) Series: Australia New Zealand School of Government monograph Subjects: Financial crises. Globalization--Economic aspects. Bankruptcy--International cooperation. Crisis management--Political aspects. Political leadership. Decision-making in public administration. Other Authors/Contributors: Hart, Paul ‘t Tindall, Karen. Dewey Number: 352.3 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design by John Butcher Cover images sourced from AAP Printed by University Printing Services, ANU Funding for this monograph series has been provided by the Australia and New Zealand School of Government Research Program. This edition © 2009 ANU E Press John Wanna, Series Editor Professor John Wanna is the Sir John Bunting Chair of Public Administration at the Research School of Social Sciences at The Australian National University and is the director of research for the Australian and New Zealand School of Government (ANZSOG). He is also a joint appointment with the Department of Politics and Public Policy at Griffith University and a principal researcher with two research centres: the Governance and Public Policy Research Centre and the nationally-funded Key Centre in Ethics, Law, Justice and Governance at Griffith University.
    [Show full text]
  • F I S C a L I M P a C T R E P O
    Fiscal impact reports (FIRs) are prepared by the Legislative Finance Committee (LFC) for standing finance committees of the NM Legislature. The LFC does not assume responsibility for the accuracy of these reports if they are used for other purposes. Current and previously issued FIRs are available on the NM Legislative Website (www.nmlegis.gov) and may also be obtained from the LFC in Suite 101 of the State Capitol Building North. F I S C A L I M P A C T R E P O R T ORIGINAL DATE 02/07/14 SPONSOR Dodge LAST UPDATED HB 234 SHORT TITLE Exclude NOL Carryover For Up To 20 Years SB ANALYST Graeser REVENUE (dollars in thousands) Estimated Revenue Recurring Fund FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 or Nonrecurring Affected General *** Nonrecurring Fund (Parenthesis ( ) Indicate Revenue Decreases) See “FISCAL ISSUES” below for a discussion of impacts in FY18 and beyond. Duplicates SB 156 and conflicts with SB 106. See discussion below in “FISCAL ISSUES.” SOURCES OF INFORMATION LFC Files Responses Received From Economic Development Department (EDD) Taxation and Revenue Department (TRD) SUMMARY Synopsis of Bill House Bill 234 would extend net operating loss carryovers (NOLs) incurred from net income reported for corporate income tax purposes and personal income tax purposes from the current five-year period to 20-years for taxable years (TYs) beginning after January 1, 2013. For TYs beginning before January 1, 2013, NOLs not recovered after five years would be extinguished. Losses incurred in taxable years beginning after January 1, 2013 would be allowed to be excluded from net income until recovered or twenty years from the taxable year of loss, whichever is earlier.
    [Show full text]
  • Antebellum Banking Regulation: a Comparative Approach
    ANTEBELLUM BANKING REGULATION: A COMPARATIVE APPROACH DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Alka Gandhi, M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2003 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Richard H. Steckel, Advisor Professor Paul Evans ________________________ Advisor Professor J. Huston McCulloch Economics Graduate Program ABSTRACT Extensive historical and contemporary studies establish important links between financial systems and economic development. Despite the importance of this research area and the extent of prior efforts, numerous interesting questions remain about the consequences of alternative regulatory regimes for the health of the financial sector. As a dynamic period of economic and financial evolution, which was accompanied by diverse banking regulations across states, the antebellum era provides a valuable laboratory for study. This dissertation utilizes a rich data set of balance sheets from antebellum banks in four U.S. states, Massachusetts, Ohio, Louisiana and Tennessee, to examine the relative impacts of preventative banking regulation on bank performance. Conceptual models of financial regulation are used to identify the motivations behind each state’s regulation and how it changed over time. Next, a duration model is employed to model the odds of bank failure and to determine the impact that regulation had on the ability of a bank to remain in operation. Finally, the estimates from the duration model are used to perform a counterfactual that assesses the impact on the odds of bank failure when imposing one state’s regulation on another state, ceteris paribus. The results indicate that states did enact regulation that was superior to alternate contemporaneous banking regulation, with respect to the ability to maintain the banking system.
    [Show full text]
  • Once Bitten, Twice Shy: Rethinking the Federal Reserve’S Independence and Monetary Policy in the U.S
    ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY: RETHINKING THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S INDEPENDENCE AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE U.S. by Niveditha Prabakaran B.S. Mathematics-Economics, B.A. Politics and Philosophy School of Arts and Sciences 2011 Submitted to the Undergraduate Faculty of School of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2011 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH SCHOOL OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This thesis was presented by Niveditha Prabakaran It was defended on April 20, 2011 and approved by Steven Husted, Professor, Economics, University of Pittsburgh Thomas Rawski, Professor, Economics, University of Pittsburgh James Burnham, Professor, School of Business, Duquesne University Thesis Director: Werner Troesken, Professor, Economics, University of Pittsburgh ii ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY: RETHINKING THE FEDERAL RESERVE’S INDEPENDENCE AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE U.S. Niveditha Prabakaran, B.Phil University of Pittsburgh, 2011 Copyright © by Niveditha Prabakaran 2011 iii Once Bitten, Twice shy: Rethinking the Federal Reserve’s Independence and Monetary Policy in the U.S. Niveditha Prabakaran, B.Phil University of Pittsburgh, 2011 It is widely believed that the Federal Reserve played a central role in bringing about the biggest catastrophe in American history—the Great Depression. The literature is extensive in seeking to provide an explanation for the Federal Reserve’s policy errors. This paper offers a new interpretation on why such an event occurred by studying a heretofore-unexamined landmark court case. In 1928, a private citizen filed suit against the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for increasing discount rates; he sough a court injunction that would force the Federal Reserve to decrease rates.
    [Show full text]
  • OMW Sprague (The Man Who" Wrote the Book" on Financial Crises) And
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES O.M.W. SPRAGUE (THE MAN WHO “WROTE THE BOOK” ON FINANCIAL CRISES) AND THE FOUNDING OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE Hugh Rockoff Working Paper 19758 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19758 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 December 2013 This paper was prepared for a conference on alternatives to the Federal Reserve held at George Mason University on November 1, 2013. I thank the organizers of the conference George Selgin and Larry H. White; my discussant, David Wheelock; and other participants in the discussion for many helpful comments. Elmus Wicker and Eugene White read an earlier draft and made many helpful suggestions. The opinions expressed here and the remaining errors are mine. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2013 by Hugh Rockoff. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. O.M.W. Sprague (the Man who “Wrote the Book” on Financial Crises) and the Founding of the Federal Reserve Hugh Rockoff NBER Working Paper No. 19758 December 2013 JEL No. B26,N1 ABSTRACT O.M.W. Sprague was America’s leading expert on financial crises when America was debating establishing the Federal Reserve.
    [Show full text]