Somalia Rain Watch, December 13, 2012
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SOMALIA Rain Watch December 13, 2012 FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr rains to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is valid through December 10, 2012 and is produced in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Deyr rains subside in most parts of southern Somalia Field reports confirm that dry weather continued in Northern regions, Hiran, Bakol, most parts of Middle Shabelle, and the northern parts of both Gedo and Galgadud Regions from December 1 to 10. However, light to moderate rains fell from December 1 to 3 in most parts of Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Bay, southern Gedo, Adale district in Middle Shabelle, and the southern parts of the central regions (Figure 1). A comparison with the long-term mean (LTM) indicates the rains received in early December were near-normal to above normal in Lower Juba while agricultural and agropastoral areas of Bay and Middle and Lower Shabelle received between 20 to 80 percent of normal (Figure 2). In the northern regions, typically Deyr rains starts and ends earlier than in the South and central Somalia. Contrary to the satellite-derived rainfall estimates (Figure 1) which depict light to moderate rains, all rain gauges and field reports confirmed dry conditions across the northern regions from December 1 to 10. However, some light showers were received in some parts of the Golis Mountains in Bossaso and Qandala Districts in Bari Region. In the central regions of Galgadud and Mudug, light to moderate rainfall was reported in the Coastal Deeh and cowpea belt (central agropastoral) livelihood zones in Elder District in Galgadud Region and Haradhere District in Mudug Region. Rain gauges in Elder and Haradhere recorded 34 millimeters (mm) each. These rains significantly improved cowpea production prospects and pasture conditions while further recharging water reservoirs (berkads). However, dry weather continued in the Hawd and Adun pastoral livelihood zones. In the South, from December 1 to 10, the satellite-derived rainfall estimates and field reports indicate that most rural areas of Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern Gedo, and southern Bay Region excluding Burhakaba District recorded light to moderate rains with good coverage and distribution. Adale District in Middle Shabelle Region had dry November weather, but rains during early December significantly improved both water and pasture conditions. Data from rain gauges shows that both pastoral and agropastoral areas received rains in this district in early December. Rain gauges in Qoryoley in Lower Shabelle and Qansahdhere in Bay Region recorded 41 millimeters (mm) and 7 mm of rainfall, respectively. Jowhar in Middle Shabelle recorded no rainfall. However, most of Bakol, northern Gedo, Middle Shabelle, Hiran, and parts of Bay received below average rainfall in terms of totals from December 1 to 10. Although December 4 to 10 was dry, the dry spell was beneficial for the standing crop in the sorghum belt. Much of the crop was at filling stage, and the dry period permitted weeding, an important activity for labor income. The current satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) indicates a slight improvement in vegetation coverage and vigor in most of Middle and Lower Juba, southern Lower Shebelle, and the coastal areas of Middle Shabelle and the central regions. This is likely due to the resumption of light to moderate rains from December 1 to 10. Similarly, significant NDVI improvement is observable in most cropped zones and pastoral areas of the southern, central, and northeastern regions. The December 13 to 19 forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is for light to moderate rains of up to 75 mm in the southern and central regions. Most of Nugal and southern Bari Regions as well as Guban pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal Region are also expected to receive light showers between 5 and 20 mm (Figure 4). For more rain gauge data please contact [email protected] or visit http://www.faoswalim.org. FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net/Somalia Government Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (mm), December 1-10, 2012 Figure 2. Rainfall percent of 1983-2011 mean, December 1-10, 2012 Figure 3. eMODIS NDVI anomaly December 1-10, 2012 Figure 4. December 13 -19, 2012 rainfall forecast Sources: FEWS NET/NOAA/CPC Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 .