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Domingo, Francis Rico (2018) Small States and the Strategic Utility of Cyber Capabilities. Phd Thesis, University of Nottingham

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Domingo, Francis Rico (2018) Small States and the Strategic Utility of Cyber Capabilities. Phd Thesis, University of Nottingham SMALL STATES AND THE STRATEGIC UTILITY OF CYBER CAPABILITIES by FRANCIS RICO C. DOMINGO A thesis submitted to for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Politics and International Relations University of Nottingham July 2018 Abstract The information revolution has profoundly influenced the interaction between states in the twenty-first century. Networked computers have supported the operations of the global financial system, industrial services, and even the conduct of military operations. Due to this revolution, the level of dependence on networked technologies has risen exponentially following the evolution of the Internet. However, networked technologies have also exposed vulnerabilities that have been exploited by hostile actors to disrupt systems, infiltrate networks, and aggravate conflicts. While the academic literature on cybersecurity has substantially increased in the past decade, most scholars have focused their attention on the capabilities of great powers and strategic behaviour in cyberspace. Despite the cyber incidents involving Estonia and Georgia, as well as the proliferation of cyber capabilities among states, scholars have continued to overlook the relevance of small states in cyber interactions. The significance of this research gap is more prominent in the studies on the Asia-Pacific Region where a substantial amount of studies have focused on the foreign and security strategies of small states but very few have focused on the cyber dimension. This research gap is addressed by the study by exploring the strategic utility of cyber capabilities for small states in the region. More specifically, it addresses the puzzle: Why have small states developed cyber capabilities despite its obscure strategic value? On this, three additional questions are considered: What factors influence the development of cyber capabilities? What are the advantages and limitations of developing cyber capabilities? What are the implications of cyber capabilities on the foreign and security policies of small states? The primary objective of the study is to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the strategic utility of cyber capabilities as foreign policy instruments for small states. It hypothesises that two necessary conditions influence the development of cyber capabilities in small states: the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific (primary condition) and strategic culture (secondary condition). The interplay between these two conditions provides a stronger explanation regarding why small states develop cyber capabilities regardless of the ambiguity surrounding the strategic utility of cyber capabilities. Based this hypothesis, it draws on neoclassical realism as a theoretical framework to account for the interaction between systemic and the domestic variables. The study also pursues three secondary objectives. First, it aims to determine the constraints and incentives that affect the development of cyber capabilities. Second, the study evaluates the functionality of these cyber capabilities for small states. Lastly, it assesses the implications of cyber capabilities on the military strategies and foreign policies of selected small states. i Acknowledgements This thesis is a product of my experiences and ideas that I gathered during my engagements in academia, government, and the private sector. The idea of studying the convergence of technology and politics was first introduced to me by Brig. Gen. Nicolas D. Ojeda Jr. (ret.) and Kathline Tolosa who assigned me to assess the cybersecurity efforts on the government during my work with the Armed Forces of the Philippines in 2010. I thank Ren Delos Santos for convincing me about the strong potential of cybersecurity as a postgraduate research topic. The research proposal for thesis was written under the guidance of Professor Colin Gray and Dr. Geoffrey Sloan during my studies at University of Reading. My experience in Reading provided me with the intellectual foundation and curiosity in Strategic Studies that enabled to me to cope with the complexities of studying military and strategic affairs. I am thankful to Dr. Kenton White for his insights about research methods and the interplay between strategy and technology. In completing the thesis, I had the privilege of meeting different people that enriched my experiences and enabled me to move forward in my research. I gained invaluable insights about doing fieldwork in Asia-Pacific from Professor Lorraine Elliot who was a Highfield Fellow during my first year of PhD studies. She was instrumental in connecting me to people across the region. In New Zealand, I am really grateful for the assistance and advice of academics and staff at Victoria University Wellington: Professor Robert Ayson, Dr. David Capie, Pennie Gapes, and Jonette Crysell. I thank Gaylene Preston for her hospitality and “coolness” in accommodating my stay in Wellington. My fieldwork in Singapore was demanding but productive thanks Dr. Alan Chong, Joseph S. Franco, Anthony Lim, Dr. Bernard Loo and Thaemar Tana. I am thankful to Bons and Mayet Yuhico for the generosity and experiences they shared during my stay in Singapore. My experience at Nottingham was very pleasant thanks to the different people I had the privilege of interacting with. I am thankful to my batchmates, Annabelle de Heus, Dishil Shrimankar, Ibtisam Ahmed, Dun Mao, Abdul-Jalilu Ateku, May Pei Lee, Hong Hieu Huynh, Suyani Indriastuti, and Maria Burczynska for sharing the burden and challenges of pursuing a PhD. I thank Dr. Carole Spary, Professor Wyn Rees, and Dr. Bettina Renz for taking time to review several chapters my thesis. I thank Professor Katharine Adeney for supporting my PhD fieldwork and Professor Steve Fielding for making our postgraduate experience more dynamic. Dr. Pauline Eadie was responsible for my transfer to University of Nottingham so I will always be thankful for her persistence. I am grateful to my examiners, Dr. Madeline Carr and Dr. David Gill for thoroughly reviewing my PhD thesis and engaging in a difficult but very constructive discussion about my work. My supervisors, Dr. Rory Cormac and Dr. Andrew Mumford, were instrumental in making my academic experience in Nottingham exceptional. I am very grateful for the experiences they shared, the expertise they offered, and the high standards they demanded throughout the supervision process. Rory and Andrew are exemplary academics that PhD students should strive to emulate. My work in academia would not be possible without the support of Professor Julio Teehankee and Dr. Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby. Professor Teehankee recruited me into academia and Dr. Willoughby has been my “unofficial mentor” since the start of my academic career. My postgraduate studies in Nottingham would not have been possible without the tremendous support of my family. I am indebted to my parents for doing the unthinkable and investing extensive resources to allow me to pursue PhD studies. I thank my siblings and my in-laws for sharing my enthusiasm for research and teaching. Most importantly, I express my deepest gratitude and appreciation to my wife Izza for selflessly supporting my academic career and transcending the sacrifices that come with it. ii List of Tables and Figures Table 1 States with the highest network readiness scores in the region 24 Table 2 Summary of interview participants per sector 32 Table 3 Observable implications and measurements 82 Table 4 Summary of alternative hypotheses 87 Table 5 Traditional and networked-enabled foreign policy instruments 214 Figure 1 Conceptual framework of the study 80 Figure 2 Applied framework of the study 82 iii Table of Contents Abstract i Acknowldgements ii List of Tables and Figures iii Chapter 1 Introduction: Small States and Cybersecurity Research Puzzle 7 Scope and Concepts 9 Characteristics of utilising cyber capabilities 11 Nonphysical 12 Stealth 15 Functional 16 Pervasive 18 Defining small states 20 Case Selection 22 Relevance of small states 22 Criteria for selection 23 New Zealand and Singapore as case studies 25 Brunei as a negative case 27 Methodology of the Study 28 Documentary analysis 28 Interviews 30 Structured and focused comparison 33 Limitations and Solutions 34 Case selection bias 34 Lack of representativeness 34 Scope conditions and necessity 35 Organisation of the study 35 Chapter 2 Mind the Gap: The Literature on Cybersecurity and International Relations Geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific 39 Responses to the great power rivalry 39 Arms build-up in the region 41 Small States in International Relations 42 Sources of foreign policy 42 Foreign policy behaviour 43 Cyber Studies and International Relations 45 Impact of the information revolution on states 45 Cyberspace as a domain for conflict 46 Motivations for developing cyber capabilities 49 Cybersecurity and small states 53 Theoretical contributions 55 Conclusion 59 Chapter 3 Explaining Cyber Capability Development Levels of analysis 63 Role of strategic culture 64 Cyber capabilities as foreign policy instrument 65 iv Cybersecurity challenges for small states 67 Cyber capabilities and small state alignment 69 Analytical themes and alternative paradigms 71 Neoclassical realism: the logical extension of neorealism 71 Anarchic international system 72 Relative distribution of power 77 Bridging two levels 78 Neoclassical realism as an explanatory framework 79 Framework for necessary conditions 80 Counterarguments and hypothesis testing 83 Technology and the distribution of power 88 Technology and strategic culture 91 Issues
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