QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES 2021 Market & Technology Report - June 2021 Industrial interest in quantum technologies continues, leading to major investments and a large market in 5-10 years.
WHAT’S NEW A HUGE FIELD OF POSSIBILITIES • Description of possible quantum Quantum technology covers a wide range of most of the attention for quantum computing. computing applications applications addressing key industrial simulation It could be ready to be used in 5-10 years for • Updated market forecast in $ and and optimization challenges. These span drug development. For drug discovery it could wafers for computing, sensing and chemicals/materials research, logistics, financial be ready in 10-20 years or longer. Following cryptography services, healthcare, life science, manufacturing the adoption of quantum in pharma, other • Market forecast for quantum and defense, drug discovery, protein structure applications could follow such as energy, defense, computing by application prediction, investment risk analysis, feedstock chemistry, transportation, banks, and finance. • Updated technological roadmaps management, vehicle routing and network for quantum computers Quantum communication and cryptography optimization. It is also a critical national issue • Quantum computing player update has been deployed for many years now and 5G to many countries as it addresses secure could be the next opportunity for quantum key • Overview of quantum investments communications and database management distribution (QKD). by country linked to national security. In our report we • Overview of private funding for Quantum sensors use quantum phenomena cover quantum-based solutions for computing, quantum to measure a physical property with higher communications, sensors and timing. sensitivity and precision compared to non- REPORT OBJECTIVES From 2012, investors began to have interest quantum sensors. Quantum effects have been • Provide market data on quantum in start-ups in quantum. Almost $2B has used for a long time in Quantum Cascade technologies: computing, been invested in about 80 start-ups including Lasers (QCLs) emitting in the Medium and Far telecommunication and sensing computing, software, cryptography and sensors. InfraRed (MIR and FIR), used for spectroscopy. • Shipments and revenue, up to Companies developing hardware have the The current quantum sensor market involves 2040 for computing, for both largest share, exceeding 60%. Many deals have gravimeters and timing solutions. hardware and services been made in 2020, showing that COVID-19 did The total market value for quantum technologies • Expected market developments not slow down the interest. including computing, cryptography and sensing • Market shares Quantum computing is still subject to technology will grow from about $340M in 2020 to $2,908M • Describe quantum technologies and and timing uncertainty, but investments in 2030. Quantum as a Service (QaaS) will be challenges continue. Pharmaceutical is today attracting 65% of the total. • Technology choices • Roadmaps 2020-2030 market forecast for quantum technologies • What are the major drivers? What will the market look like in 2030? • Analyze major technological trends Computing • Developments in existing and future Sensing & Timing technologies Cryptography $1,147M • Pros and cons $598M CAGR 48% CAGR • Enable a thorough understanding of $160M 14% the value chain, infrastructure and CAGR $38M 33% $317M players for quantum technologies CAGR and the quantum computing market 8% $1,163M $218M $313M CAGR 30% • Extensive lists of players, and their CAGR technology portfolios 30% $84M • Industrial supply chain information CAGR 30% • Business model discussion CAGR 18% 2020 2025 • Investment analysis 2030 $340M $791M $2,908M (Yole Développement, June 2021) THE ROAD TO THE QUANTUM COMPUTERS WILL BE MARKED BY VARIOUS TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS There is a long road before companies realize to 5,000 qubits, these Ising machines are today a universal quantum gate-based computer. restricted to optimization problems. Quantum Today, only one company – D-Wave Systems emulators are another topic, where Japan in Canada – is manufacturing and shipping is strongly involved. The next step will be to quantum annealers. Although they use 2,000 develop Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES 2021 Ref. YINTR21211
(NISQ) machines with 50-100 logical qubits. 2021 quantum computer roadmap Then the holy grail will be to develop a universal quantum computer with a minimum of 100 logical
Quantum accelerators can also be used with CPU qubits, corresponding to 100,000 physical qubits. / GPU / FPGAs to distribute the calculations according to usage on one or the other chip. Recently, another approach has emerged with the development of quantum accelerators. They will be used in conjunction with Central and Graphics Quantum annealer Processor Units (CPUs and GPUs) or Field- Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) in a High NISQ Quantum-gates 50-100 qubits Performance Computer (HPC). Calculations will based QC Hybrid solution be distributed according to usage on one or the requiring classical « The Quantum computing Grail » other chip, quantum or non-quantum. This is a Quantum components as well emulators mid-term approach to the use of hybrid quantum Using digital circuits computers using both semiconductor logic chips (Developed and quantum accelerators with well distinct roles. in Japan)
2021 MID-TERM LONG-TERM (Yole Développement, June 2021)
THE QUBIT RACE CONTINUES, WITH LARGE PLAYERS CHALLENGED BY NUMEROUS STARTUPS
The progress of quantum computers is often related computational tasks more efficiently. The current to the number of qubits. It is generally agreed that investigated qubit technologies analyzed in the a minimum of 50 logical qubits will be necessary to report are: superconducting, quantum annealers, have a useful quantum computer. Research continues photon qubits, semiconductors, quasiparticles, into the development of qubit technologies that nitrogen vacancies, trapped ions and cold atoms. need to be scalable, have low sensitivity to noise Superconducting junctions have reached the and be able to work in an environment that would industrialization stage with D-Wave. Recently, two ideally not need ultra-high vacuum and/or cryogenic technologies have gained more attention: photon temperatures. Major technological barriers to qubits and trapped atoms. The first one comes overcome in the future are scalability, which needs because PsiQuantum in the US is today the best CMOS, thermodynamic control, which nearly funded quantum computer company. The second every quantum technology requires, and logical comes because IonQ in the US, a developer of interactions between conventional and quantum trapped-ion quantum computers, announced a $2 processing systems. billion deal through a Special Purpose Acquisition Using this combination of HPC processors C o m p a ny (S PAC ) t h at wo u ld m a ke i t t h e fi r s t p u b l i c l y and quantum accelerators will solve selected traded firm dedicated to quantum computers.
1998-2026 Physical qubit roadmap for quantum computer
Physical qubits History The promise 1M 1M qubits
1000-qubits 2000-qubits 5000-qubits 1121-qubits 1000 1000-qubits 433-qubits 128-qubits 127-qubits 128-qubits 100 100 qubits 100 qubits 72-qubits (Bristlecone) 54(53)-qubits (Sycamore) 64 qubits 50-qubits 50-100 qubits 49-qubits (Tangle Lake) 28-qubits R&D - University PASQAL 17-qubits Tundra Alibaba 12-qubits1 D-Wave Intel 10 11-qubits 7-qubits2 9-qubits ATOS MISIS, Russia 5-qubits3 Google PsiQuantum 3-qubits 4 IBM WACQT 2-qubits 2-qubits Rigetti 1 1998 2000 06 07 09 15 16 17 18 19 20 23 25 26 1 (Institute for Quantum Computing, Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics, MIT) 2 (Los Alamos National lab) 3 (TU Munich) 4 (Oxford University, IBM, UC Berkeley, Stanford, MIT) (Yole Développement, June 2021) MARKET & TECHNOLOGY REPORT
COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT (non exhaustive list) 1QBit, A*Quantum, A.P.E., Alibaba, Alice&Bob, Alpine Quantum, Amazon, Ankh.1, Anyon Systems, ApexQubit, AppliedQubit, ArQit, Artiste-qb.net, AtomComputing, AtomSensors, Atos, Aurea Technology, Aurora Quantum Technologies, Automatski, Axion Technologies, Beit.tech, Black Brane System, Bleximo, BlueFors Cryogenics, Bosch, Boxcat, Bra-Ketscience, BraneCell, Cambridge Quantum Computing, Coax Co., ColdQuanta, Cryoconcept, Cryomech, Cryptalabs, Cryptomathic, CryptoNext Security, D slit technologies, Delft Circuits bv, Deutsche Telekom, D-wave, EeroQ, Elyah, Entanglement Partners, Entanglement Technologies, Entropica Labs, EvolutionQ, Fathom Computing, Fujitsu, Google, GTN LTD, h-bar, Honeywell, Horizon, HP, HQS, Huawei, HyperLight, IBM, ID Quantique, imasenic, InfiniQuant, Intel, Intelline, IonQ, IQM, Isara, Jos Quantum, Ketita Labs, KETS Quantum Security, KETS Quantum Security, Kiutra, Labber Quantum, LightOn, Lockheed Martin, Luminous, MagiQ, MDR, Microsoft, M-Labs, M Squared, Multiverse Computing, Muquans, Netramark, NQCG, Nu Quantum, NuCrypt, ONERA, Origin Quantum Computing, Orolia, Oxford Instruments, Oxford Quantum Circuits, Pasqal, Phase Space Computing, PhaseCraft, Photec, PhotonSpot, Post Quantum, ProteinQure, PsiQ, PTB, Qandi, Qasky, Qbitlogic, Qblox, QC Ware, Q-ctrl, QEYnet, Qilimanjaro, Qindom, Q-Lion, QLM, Qnami, Qontrol Systems, Qrithm, Qrypt, Qu&Co, Quandela, Quantastica, QuantFi, QuantiCor Security, Quantika, Quantopo, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Benchmark, Quantum Brilliance, Quantum Circuits Inc, Quantum Communications Hub, Quantum Factory, AUTHOR Quantum Impenetrable, Quantum Machines, Quantum Motion Technologies, Quantum Phi, With more than 25 years’ experience within the semiconductor industry, Eric Mounier Quantum Xchange, QuantumCTek, QuantumX, Quartiq, Qubalt , Qubit Reset LLC, Qubitekk, PhD. is Director of Market Research at Qubitera LLC, QuDot, Quintessence Labs, QUiX, Qulab, Qunasys, Qunnect, Qunulabs, Yole Développement (Yole). Eric provides QuPIC , Quside, QuSpin, QxBranch, Rahko, RayCal, Raytheon, Rigetti Computing, Riverlane, daily in-depth insights into current and Scontel, Seedevices, SeeQC.EU, SHYN, Silicon Quantum Computing Pty. Ltd, Single Quantum, future semiconductor trends, markets and SK Telecom, SoftwareQ, Solid State AI, Sparrow Quantum, SpeQtral, Strangeworks, Supracon, innovative technologies, such as Quantum Syrlinks, TMD, Tokyo Quantum Computing, Toptica, Toshiba, Trustis, TundraSystems Global computing, silicon photonics, new sensing ltd, Turing, TwinLeaf, Universal Quantum, VectorAtomic, Xanadu, Xofia, Zapata Computing, technologies and new types of sensors. Based on relevant methodological expertise ZY4 and more and a strong technological background, he works closely with all the teams at Yole TABLE OF CONTENTS (complete content on i-Micronews.com) to point out disruptive technologies and What we got right, what we got wrong 5 Market trends 135 analyze and present business opportunities Scope of the report 7 > Pharmaceutical through technology and market reports and custom consulting projects. With numerous Report methodology 8 > Energy and chemistry > Transportation internal workshops on technologies, Report objectives 11 > Banks and finance methodologies, best practices and more, Who should be interested by this report?12 > Defense and aerospace Yole’s Fellow Analyst ensures the training Market shares and supply chain 165 of Yole’s Technology and Market Analysts. 3-Page summary 13 In this position, Eric Mounier has spoken > Fund raising at numerous international conferences, Executive summary 16 > Collaborations presenting his vision of the semiconductor Context 49 > Players industry and latest technical innovations. He Quantum computer 60 > Market shares Technology trends 192 has also authored or co-authored more than > Architecture 100 papers as well as more than 120 Yole > Quantum software > Superconducting technology and market reports. Previously, Quantum cryptography 88 > Quantum annealer Eric held R&D and Marketing positions at > Photons Quantum sensors 105 > Silicon CEA Leti (France). Eric Mounier has a PhD. in Semiconductor Engineering and a degree > Quantum magnetometers and gravimeters > Quasi particles > NV centers in Optoelectronics from the National > Atomic clocks Polytechnic Institute of Grenoble (France). > New developments > Trapped ions > Cold atoms Market forecasts 117 > Others > Computers Outlook 234 > Cryptography > Sensing/timing About Yole Développement 238
RELATED REPORTS, MONITORS & TRACKS • Silicon Photonics 2021 • Neuromorphic Computing and Sensing 2021
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