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Quantum Computing: Countdown to a Quantum Leap ©COPYRIGHT 2020 451 RESEARCH ENJOY THIS COMPLIMENTARY EXCERPT If you are interested in reading the complete report, please reach out to [email protected] Quantum Computing: THOUGHT Countdown to a LEADERSHIP MAR 2020 Quantum Leap Dr. Owen Rogers, Research Vice President, Cloud Transformation James Sanders, Analyst, Cloud Transformation Rachel Dunning, Research Associate Matthew Utter, Research Associate Quantum computing would make a profound impact to society’s viewpoint of what is possible, particularly in scientific fields where problems are simply too vast to solve. But it’s not a panacea, and huge hurdles lie in bringing it to mainstream adoption. However, it is increasingly in the public eye, with big players looking to educate the next generation, and startups receiving speculative funding. Now is the time to experiment and to keep an open mind, but don’t expect miracles anytime soon. ©2020 451 Research, LLC | WWW.451RESEARCH.COM REPORT EXCERPT About the Authors Dr. Owen Rogers Research Vice President, Cloud Transformation As Research Vice President, Owen Rogers leads the firm’s Digital Economics Unit, which serves to help customers understand the economics behind digital and cloud technologies so they can make informed choices when costing and pricing their own products and services, as well as those from their vendors, suppliers and competitors. Owen is the architect of the Cloud Price Index, 451 Research’s benchmark indicator of the costs of public, private and managed clouds, and the Cloud Price Codex, our global survey of cloud pricing methods and mechanisms. Owen is also head of 451 Research’s Center of Excellence for Quantum Technologies. Owen has previously held product management positions at Cable & Wireless and Claranet, and has developed a number of hosting and cloud services. He is a Chartered Engineer, a Member of the British Computer Society and a member of the Royal Economic Society. In 2013, he completed his PhD thesis on the economics of cloud computing at the University of Bristol. Owen was named ‘Innovative Analyst of the Year’ in the Institute of Industry Analyst Relations’ global awards in 2018. James Sanders Rachel Dunning Analyst, Cloud Transformation Research Associate Matthew Utter Research Associate Quantum Computing: Countdown to a Quantum Leap ©COPYRIGHT 2020 451 RESEARCH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPORT EXCERPT Key Findings • Quantum computing will have profound impact on technology and even society if (and we emphasize if) it becomes mainstream. However, there are still huge hurdles to overcome. We think we are at least a decade away from quantum computing solving a problem that is currently unsolvable in useful timeframes using a traditional computer. • A quantum computer allows all states to encoded in the uncertainty of the characteristics of a subatomic particle and then evaluated once, as opposed to a traditional computer where each state must be encoded and evaluated separately. Many problems that would take too long to solve today (measured in thousands of years) could be solved in a matter of minutes or hours. The challenge is in getting such small particles under control, and preventing tiny interactions corrupting the data we are trying to process. • Investments from the likes of IBM, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Honeywell are unlikely to have made a financial return yet, but if quantum computing becomes mainstream, the returns will be significant. • Quantum computing vendors are informing and educating the next generation for when quantum computing is commercially viable. Vendors hope this gives them the ability to capitalize when the technology becomes mainstream. • The fundamental use case of quantum computing is to solve problems with so many permutations that they can’t be processed in human timeframes. We believe the key use cases will be scientific (chemical engineering, physics, biochemistry, healthcare, materials engineering and mathematics), where there is a need to compute and resolve a vast quantity of states. • Quantum computers should be thought of as an entrant in the class of compute accelerators that provide specific capability in a hybrid model alongside general-purpose processors. Increase in adoption and reduction of the costs of FPGAs, ASICs and GPUs may make quantum computing’s economic argument less clear cut. • Although cracking keys is often cited as a use case, new quantum-proof algorithms, technologies, and even simply increasing key lengths in some cases can effectively mitigate this threat today and in the longer term. • Our recommendation is that companies with even a slight interest should free up one of their developers to experiment for a few hours a week, just so they are better placed to identify quantum computing opportunities. Those that already have a problem in mind that promises a big return should test the waters with quantum computing vendors. Quantum Computing: Countdown to a Quantum Leap ©COPYRIGHT 2020 451 RESEARCH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPORT EXCERPT Executive Summary Introduction Quantum computing has been the subject of research since the early 1980s, and – theoretically – there is a huge basis to believe that the use of particles of unimaginable smallness could unlock problems that have been out of reach in realistic timeframes using traditional computing models. However, there are massive practical challenges in controlling these tiny particles for long Quantum enough to actually make them do what we want. Simply put, there are no guarantees that we can computing is a use them to solve practical problems. gamble and there are no guarantees, Yet the business case is strong – a practical quantum computer would open the door to but for such a incredible opportunities in physics, chemistry, machine learning, finance, healthcare and beyond. huge payoff, it is While no panacea, viable quantum computing would increase our ability to attack previously probably a risk insurmountable computational challenges, from the structure of materials to the folding of worth taking. proteins to nature’s ability to produce chemical reactions, which would be impractically time- consuming or impossible even with the deterministic computers we all use today. We are still years away from creating such value with quantum systems, if it’s at all possible. But it’s telling that those investigating quantum computing are speaking up more and more. IBM, Google, Microsoft, AWS, Honeywell and other established players are making big announcements, even squabbling over relative progress. Startups are being funded to investigate technologies and even software development. Quantum computing is a gamble and there are no guarantees, but for such a huge payoff, it is probably a risk worth taking. This report takes a look at the current state of quantum computing for a general audience. Quantum computing is a highly mathematical discipline and, unfortunately, our grasp of common sense in the macroworld we live in breaks down in the microworld. Our advice is to suspend preconceptions of what is possible and just accept that at such tiny distances, experiences and potentialities are different. The ‘Theory of Everything,’ which aims to reconcile physics at the macroworld and microworld level, shows this is a problem that isn’t just baffling for normal people, but for physicists too. Our aim is to enable a technology- or business-focused reader to gain a general understanding of the concepts. This report relies on analogies to simplify the complexities and minutiae of quantum computing. Our representation of quantum computing is practical and utilitarian, intended as a fundamental primer for technology leaders to understand the opportunities and market. By its very definition, the ‘state of the art‘ of quantum computing is constantly iterating and evolving, though for present state, most industries should wait attentively for the right moment to invest capital. Quantum Computing: Countdown to a Quantum Leap ©COPYRIGHT 2020 451 RESEARCH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPORT EXCERPT Presently, we strongly encourage investing time. Experimentation in quantum computing – if even just a side project from a single developer interested in exploring frameworks and cloud- based quantum computers detailed in this report – can open the mind to future opportunities and potentialities when (if) quantum computing becomes mainstream. Allowing developer time to be spent now can provide an early – if small – advantage, at a tiny cost. Enterprises with a specific problem in mind have nothing to lose (and potentially much to gain longer term) by engaging vendors now. The great physicist Richard Feynman said, “If you think you understand quantum mechanics, you don’t understand quantum mechanics.” Don’t try to get all the details today, just open your mind to the possibilities. Methodology Following the launch of our Quantum Computing Centre of Excellence in 2019, the 451 Research Associate team set about collecting data from websites on companies working on quantum computing, be it as vendors selling hardware, providers offering quantum services, enterprises running proofs of concept, or startups dabbling in development. From this extensive list, 451 Research focused on companies selling or developing groundbreaking quantum technology and organized briefings supplemented with further investigation from public sources. The aim of this report is not to rank what is a very emerging market, but to show the current state of the art and educate business leaders on its potential impact. Reports such as this one represents a holistic
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