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Emerging Technologies White Paper [PDF, 4223 2018 Emerging Technologies WHITE PAPER THE SAN DIEGO ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Technology and Societal Trends Impacting Transportation ..................................................................... 3 Mobility as a Service ............................................................................................................................ 4 On-Demand Rideshare ........................................................................................................................ 5 Bikeshare .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Electric bikeshare ................................................................................................................................. 7 Carshare ................................................................................................................................................ 8 Public transit......................................................................................................................................... 9 Microtransit ........................................................................................................................................ 10 MaaS in Action ................................................................................................................................... 11 MaaS Opportunities and Challenges .................................................................................................... 12 Vehicle Technologies ......................................................................................................................... 13 Electric and Other Zero-Emission Vehicles ....................................................................................... 13 Autonomous Vehicles ........................................................................................................................ 15 Connected Vehicles ............................................................................................................................ 17 Vehicle Technology Opportunities and Challenges ............................................................................ 20 Smart Cities and Transportation Systems ............................................................................................. 21 Transportation System Management and Operations .................................................................... 23 Smart Cities and Transportation Systems Challenges and Opportunities ......................................... 23 Policy Considerations ................................................................................................................................. 25 Policy and Investment Considerations .................................................................................................. 27 Look Ahead ................................................................................................................................................ 28 Hyperloop ........................................................................................................................................... 28 3-D Printing ........................................................................................................................................ 28 Augmented Reality ............................................................................................................................ 28 Delivery Robots .................................................................................................................................. 28 Drones and Flying Cars ...................................................................................................................... 28 Figures Figure 1 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Figure 2 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4 Figure 3 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 5 Figure 4 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 5 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Figure 6 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Figure 7 ........................................................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 8 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 9 ...................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 10 .................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 11 .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 12 .................................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 13 .................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 14 .................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 15 .................................................................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 16 .................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 17 .................................................................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 18 .................................................................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 19 .................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Introduction The pace of technology is moving more rapidly than anyone could have predicted. In the early 20th century, it took nearly 75 years for technologies such as the telephone and household stove to reach market penetration (Figure 1). Today, consumer electronics are being adopted by the market at a far quicker rate. As of 2016, 95 percent of U.S. adults (age 18 and over) owned a cell phone, and smartphone ownership reached 77 percent1. Technology is influencing every aspect of our lives, including how we travel. The rapid adoption of the smartphone in the U.S. market has enabled transportation innovation such as on-demand mobility services like Uber and Lyft. Additionally, nearly every major auto manufacturer is racing toward production of autonomous vehicles (AVs), anticipating having AVs commercially available as early as 2019. Conservative estimates for AV adoption forecast 90 percent market penetration within the next 50 years. Figure 1. Technology adoption has rapidly increased over the last several decades The objective of this white paper is to present technological and societal trends that have the potential to radically change how the region’s transportation system is used in the future, and to outline potential policy considerations that will enable the region to harness the benefits and reduce the potential negative impacts of these trends. This paper presents research that demonstrates how many of these technological advancements have the potential to improve safety, mobility, and efficiency. However, without proactive planning and policy interventions, these technologies could move the region away from its objectives by increasing sprawl, vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and by limiting access for disadvantaged communities. This white paper contains three sections: 1. Technology and Societal Trends Impacting Transportation: This section explores the rapid change in the transportation sector brought about by advancements in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and vehicle technologies that have made way for several key mobility trends: a. Mobility as a Service b. Zero Emission, Autonomous, and Connected
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