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TheThe FutureFuture ofof IndustrialIndustrial SocietySociety atat thethe EndEnd ofof CheapCheap Oil*Oil* ** Or,Or, It’sIt’s OnlyOnly thethe EndEnd ofof thethe WorldWorld asas WeWe KnowKnow ItIt Gary McMurtry Dept. of Oceanography University of Hawaii, Manoa I met a traveler from an antique land Who said: “Two vast and truckless legs of stone Stand in the desert…. And on the pedestal these words appear: “My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!” Nothing beside remains, Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away. “Ozymandias” by Percy Bysshe Shelley (1817) “Alas, poor world, what treasure hast thou lost!” “Venus and Adonis” by William Shakespeare “It is evident that the fortunes of the world’s human population, for better or for worse, are inextricably interrelated with the use that is made of energy resources.” M. King Hubbert (1969) Of the two major aspects of Physical Chemistry, Thermodynamics sets the laws and the boundaries, Kinetics sets the pace. In human endeavors, one can be fine in the thermodynamic sense, and still lose because the reaction rates were too slow. AddictedAddicted toto OilOil The USA has <5% of the global population, but uses 25% of global oil resources. The current global population is >6.5 billion. Essentially, that translates to 300,000,000 people using the energy resources of 1,625,000,000 people! Currently, 60% of the oil consumed by the USA is imported, mainly from our neighbors Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela. PropertiesProperties && UsesUses ofof OilOil • Amazing Energy Density (45 MJ/kg, compared with 10-30 MJ/kg for coal, 16 MJ/kg for dry wood) • Easily Transportable • Safe (relatively) & Cheaply Storable Major Uses: • Transportation Fuel for motor vehicles, trains, ships & airplanes • Fuel for Power Plants • Industrial Applications, e.g. mining, farming, manufacturing • Source of Petrochemicals, including chemical fertilizers (N,P,K)*, pesticides*, herbicides*, plastics & pharmaceuticals *Basis of the “green revolution”, as a means to ‘fix’ or reduce atmospheric nitrogen. In this usage, I include natural gas, another limited fossil fuel, and mineable phosphate, probably next on the global depletion list. K is abundant. ““Excess”Excess” PeoplePeople areare MadeMade ofof OilOil At the start of the Industrial Revolution, around 1850, the world population was about 1 billion. “Excess people” are defined as those currently supported by fossil fuels, especially from those products that support “Green Revolution” industrial agriculture, mining & transportation. If denied the support, by withdrawal of cheap and abundant fossil fuels, human populations will likely revert to pre-Industrial, or lower, levels. Many ecologists say we are already in human population “overshoot”, and the planet cannot much longer sustain the added load. Climate change (e.g., global warming) can only make matters worse. USAUSA OilOil ProductionProduction HistoryHistory && ProjectionProjection The US lower-48 production peak (Texas + Rest of USA) occurred in 1970; In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted this outcome to within a few years. Hubbert’sHubbert’s PredictionsPredictions M. King Hubbert 1903-1989 From: K. S. Deffeyes, Hubbert’s Peak (2001) Campbell’sCampbell’s PredictionsPredictions World Oil Production Colin J. Campbell, Founder, ASSOCIATIONASSOCIATIONASSOCIATION FORFORFOR THETHETHE STUDYSTUDYSTUDY OFOFOF PEAKPEAKPEAK OILOILOIL ANDANDAND GASGASGAS World Population These are not kooks! It’sIt’s aboutabout thethe Food…Food… Made available to plants by fossil fuel Population Disaster! GlobalGlobal OilOil ProductionProduction && PredictionPrediction GlobalGlobal OilOil && NaturalNatural GasGas DepletionDepletion From: C. J. Campbell, The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil (2005) PetroleumPetroleum DistributionDistribution byby RegionRegion Proven oil reserves at end 2004 --Source: British Petroleum OilOil && GasGas areare notnot evenlyevenly distributeddistributed From: Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Beyond Oil (2005) MajorMajor OilOil FieldsFields ofof SaudiSaudi ArabiaArabia Ghawar Field: King of Kings, Site of * Recent since 1951 Terrorist Attempt From: Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (2005) OilOil && GasGas FormationFormation Most of the world’s oil & natural gas resources were formed in two brief epochs of extreme global warming at 90 Ma and 150 Ma Oil & gas can take millions of years to form and require specific geological conditions to mature and become trapped in reservoirs First, a nutrient trap From: K. S. Deffeyes, must be available Hubbert’s Peak (2001) Bottom Line: It’s renewable, but only on geologic time scales! EvolvingEvolving OilOil ExtractionExtraction MethodsMethods Young Fields Vertical Wells, THEN Self-Pressurized (1950-1990) Flow Lateral Well Drilling, Mature Fields Water Flooding NOW (2004-->) From: Matthew R. Simmons, Twilight in the Desert (2005) Crude Oil Alternatives--Alberta, Canada Oil Sands *currently 1 million barrels (MB)/day *projected to 3 MB/day in 2020 *projected to 6 MB/day “in future” *reserves equal to oil of Saudi Arabia *environmental impacts huge & scaleable Source: K. Bourzac, Dirty Oil, MIT Tech. Review, Dec. 2005 USA Consumption vs. Alternative Oil Supplies Global Consumption vs. Alternative Oil Supplies TheThe ListList ofof AlternativesAlternatives Category Brief Comment • Heavy Oil Most helpful in near future • Oil Sands Moderate supply • Coal-Derived Liquids Moderate supply • Liquefied Natural Gas Minor supply • Natural Gas N.A. post-peak; world will soon follow • Coal Maybe 100-200 more years--see CDL • Methane hydrates Abundant on and off-shore--impacts unknown • Solar-voltaic Moderate supply • Hydro-electric Moderate supply--local impact • Wind Moderate supply--local impact • Tidal, Waves, Currents Minor supply--local impact • OTEC Scaleable to 15 TW, but impacts unknown • Biomass Land forms are net energy losers; marine? • Geothermal Minor supply--local impact • Nuclear Fission, Most helpful in far future--probably Nuclear Fusion our only long-term hope ConservationConservation isis MoreMore ThanThan aa PersonalPersonal Virtue,Virtue, butbut OilOil isis Fungible…Fungible… AndAnd SomeSome WordsWords AboutAbout thethe “Hydrogen“Hydrogen Economy”Economy” Hydrogen (H2) is an energy carrier (think: ‘battery’), not a source. Cracking scarce hydrocarbons to get hydrogen “fuel” for fuel cells is silly. Burn the hydrocarbons, instead. Using electrical power to crack water (H2O --> H2 + 1/2O2) is an expensive proposition. Long-term, it may provide N2 reductant. Storage of high-pressure or liquid hydrogen fuel is expensive and Potentially Dangerous (think: Hindenburg)… FossilFossil FuelFuel PlatformPlatform Like windmills on the sea, alternative energy technology rests upon a vast pool of fossil-fuel energy that will decrease and become more expensive over time. Industries that make alloys, turbines, solar panels, batteries, & construction equipment and transportation all rely on fossil fuels. Even coal is mined with diesel-powered equipment. ERoI:ERoI: EnergyEnergy ReturnedReturned onon EnergyEnergy InvestedInvested Or, If it takes a barrel of oil to recover a barrel of oil, why bother? MagnitudeMagnitude ofof thethe ProblemProblem or Why Most Alternatives Won’t Work, or Not in Time To make up for the coming oil depletion, a 1 Gigawatt nuclear power plant needs to be built every day for the next 30 years* * To replace 10 Terawatts or 1013 watts = 10,000 new 1 Gigawatt (109 watt) plants; David Goodstein, “Out of Gas, The End of the Age of Oil”, 2004. ThreeThree FactorsFactors thatthat DetermineDetermine thethe Potential*Potential* PostPost--OilOil BreakdownBreakdown *If We Do Nothing From: P. Thompson, “The Twilight of the Modern World” (2004) TheThe FourFour StagesStages ofof PossiblePossible BreakdownBreakdown From: P. Thompson, “The Twilight of the Modern World” (2004) FutureFuture NorthNorth AmericaAmerica----2050+???2050+??? Inspired by “The Long Emergency”, J. H. Kuntsler (2005) FutureFuture ofof HawaiiHawaii Burdens • >1.2 million people living thousands of miles from the nearest land • ‘Standing crop’ of >0.1 million tourists, >0.1 million military • Small land area, with limited water resources • Surrounding ocean waters are oligotrophic (biological desert) Advantages • Equitable climate, inspiring natural landscape & educated, cosmopolitan culture • History of self-sustainability and export agriculture • Geothermal, biomass (?) and OTEC/cold-water agriculture potential on Hawaii Island Disadvantages • Current reliance on all things imported, including most food, goods & energy • AC high-rises, suburbs & outmoded land transportation system • Economic reliance on tourism, military & soon-to-be-extinct cheap airline industry There must be some way out of here, said the joker to the thief, There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief. Businessmen, they drink my wine, plowmen dig my earth, None of them along the line know what any of it is worth. No reason to get excited, the thief, he kindly spoke, There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke. But you and i, we’ve been through that, and this is not our fate, So let us not talk falsely now, the hour is getting late. All along the watchtower, princes kept the view While all the women came and went, barefoot servants, too. Outside in the distance a wildcat did growl, Two riders were approaching, the wind began to howl. “All Along The Watchtower” words & music by Bob Dylan (best performed by Jimi Hendrix at high volume) RecommendedRecommended ReadingReading The Party's Over (2003, 2005) by Richard Heinberg Power Down (2005) by Richard Heinberg Hubbert's Peak (2001) by Kenneth Deffeyes Beyond Oil (2005) by Kenneth Deffeyes Out of Gas (2004) by David Goodstein Twilight in the Desert (2005) by Matthew Simmons The Long Emergency (2005) by James H. Kunstler Related: Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (2005) by Jared Diamond (featuring Easter Island as the real-life version of Dr. Seuss’s tale: The Lorax) CapitalisticCapitalistic InertiaInertia MustMust bebe Overcome!Overcome! Mahalo to Brother John for his kokua! .
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  • A Synopsis of Richard Heinberg's Book: the Party's Over: Oil, War And

    A Synopsis of Richard Heinberg's Book: the Party's Over: Oil, War And

    A Synopsis of Richard Heinberg’s book: The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies ©2004 Post Carbon Institute, Oakland, CA 1. INTRODUCTION he world is about to change dramatically and forever as the result of oil depletion. Within the next few years global T production of oil will peak. Thereafter, even with a switch to alternative energy sources, industrial societies will increasingly have less energy available to do all the things necessary for our existence. When Mike Bowlin, chairman of ARCO, said in 1999 that, “We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil,” he was voicing a truth that many others in the petroleum industry knew but dared not utter. Among experts in the field there is no question that the era of petroleum-based industrial society will be coming to an end within the life- times of most people now alive. The ramifications of this fact are simply staggering. Oil not only powers our cars, trucks, trains and airplanes, it is es- sential to virtually every aspect of our material existence in the Western world. Fossil fuels, including natural gas and coal (which will also be harder to extract as time goes on), are by far the main source of energy for the factories which pro- duce all the material goods we use every day, for the electricity that powers our cities and homes, for the heat we need to survive the winters, and for our current system of corporate agriculture that puts food on our tables—in short, for every- thing that sustains our modern world.