1 Introduction

Notes

1 Introduction

1. Neil Buckley and Theodor Troev, ‘Bulgaria PM to step down amid protests,’ Financial Times, 20 February 2013. 2. The keywords for the search were ‘energy’, ‘oil’, ‘gas’, ‘coal’, ‘wind’, ‘renewable’, and ‘hydrogen’. The organizations that came up were the European Coal and Steel Community, the Central American Energy Commission, the European Atomic Energy Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency, the Latin American Energy Orga- nization, and the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds. It is striking that the first three organizations mentioned had already ceased to exist in the early 1990s. To be fair, it should be noted that here are of course many other forms of governance beyond intergovernmental organizations in the field of energy, and that there are some non-energy-specific international organizations that are relevant for the energy sector. 3. Mohamed ElBaradei, ‘A global agency is needed for the energy crisis,’ Financial Times, 23 July 2008. 4. This proposal is available from: http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/ 2009/04/215305.shtml (Accessed: 19 October 2011). 5. See his speech at the 66th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2011, available from: http://www.turkmenistan. gov.tm/_en/?idr=4&id=110924a (accessed 19 October 2011). 6. ‘China urges global energy cooperation,’ UPI, 16 January 2012. 7. I will also use these terms in a value-neutral fashion, which does not imply a positive bias toward institutional unity and centralization. For the sake of completeness it should be mentioned that still other terms are in use to describe this phenomenon such as ‘interlocking governance struc- tures’ (Underdal and Young 2004) and ‘institutional complexes’ (Stokke and Oberthür 2011). 8. Examples include: The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinc- tion of Petroleum Man by David Strahan (2007), The Impending World Energy Mess by Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, and Robert Wendling (2010), and The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by James H. Kunstler (2005). 9. Interview with Claude Mandil, ‘Executive director of the IEA from 2003 to 2007,’ Paris, 9 March 2010. 10. Joseph Nye, ‘Scholars on the sidelines,’ The Washington Post, 13 April 2009. 11. Since some parts of this book draw on previously published articles, I thank the respective publishers and co-authors for allowing me to use these mate- rials. Chapter 5 was previously published as ‘Obsolete or resurgent? The International Energy Agency in a changing global landscape,’ Energy Policy,

167 168 Notes

48, 83–92. Chapter 6 was previously published as ‘Fragmentation in global energy governance: Explaining the creation of IRENA,’ Global Environmen- tal Politics, 13(3), 14–33, while Chapter 7 previously appeared as ‘The G8 and G20 as global steering committees for energy: Opportunities and constraints,’ Global Policy, 2(S1), 19–30 (co-authored with Kirsten Westphal).

2 Energy and Global Governance

1. Actually, the IEA identiﬁed a fourth trend, the persistent failure to provide universal energy access to the world’s poor. This is not discussed here, for it is not a trend but rather a constant. Energy poverty will be discussed later on in this chapter when the question is addressed of what is to be governed in global energy. 2. Press Release: New Energy Realities – WEO Calls for Global Energy Rev- olution Despite Economic Crisis. 12 November 2008. Available at: www. iea.org/textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?press_rel_id=275 [accessed: February 2013]. 3. These are often referred to as the four As, usually omitting the ‘reliability’ component. See, for example, Hughes and Shupe (2011). 4. Andres Schipani, ‘Bolivia: the Saudi Arabia of lithium?,’ Financial Times, 7 January 2013. 5. Stanley Reed, ‘North Africa’s prospects as energy goliath are fading,’ New York Times, 22 February 2013. 6. Ryan Chilcote, Anna Shiryaevskaya, and Lyubov Pronina, ‘Russia’s Medvedev says Gazprom may lose gas-export monopoly,’ Bloomberg,23 January 2013. 7. Joseph Menn, ‘Chinese hackers hit energy groups,’ Financial Times,11 February 2011. 8. Simeon Kerr, ‘Gulf oil industry at risk of cyber attack,’ Financial Times, 23 October 2012. 9. Ed Crooks, ‘Hackers target US natural gas pipelines,’ Financial Times, 8 May 2012. 10. Note that for (the governments of) oil and gas exporting countries, security of demand is the chief concern as they often rely overwhelmingly on hydrocarbon export revenues to balance their national budgets.

3 Morphogenesis of the Energy Regime Complex

1. For a more complete, but static snapshot of the global energy architecture, see Chapter 4 of Lesage et al. (2010). 2. This speech is available from: http://www.iaea.org/About/history_speech. html (accessed 11 March 2010). 3. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, available through http://www.opec.org. The following countries joined OPEC in the 1960s–1970s: Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), and Gabon (1975). Notes 169

4. In principle, the ECT also covers other forms of energy. Yet, natural gas is the key issue on the Eurasian continent. The oil market is much more liquid and most oil transport takes place by ship, while natural gas trade on the continent is inevitably pipeline-bound. Coal is a separate case, as international trade in coal is relatively limited. 5. Interview with Claude Mandil, former Executive Director of the IEA, Paris, 9 March 2010. 6. Interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘IEA Deputy Executive Director from 1999 to 2008,’ Brussels, 6 May 2010. 7. Interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘IEA Deputy Executive Director from 1999 to 2008,’ Paris, 11 April 2008.

4 Interpreting the Global Energy Architecture

1. Keith Bradsher, ‘China Sharply Raises Energy Prices,’ New York Times, 20 June 2008. 2. IEA (2011) Electricity Information 2011. Paris: OECD/IEA. 3. Sonja Van Renssen (2011), ‘Public Acceptance: The Energy Sector’s Biggest Headache,’ European Energy Review, 16 June.

5 Adaptation at the Core: Reform of the IEA

1. http://www.iea.org/about/index.asp (last accessed: 9 February 2012). 2. See the special issue of Global Policy on global energy governance, issued in September 2011, for more detailed accounts of these structural transforma- tions in world energy (Florini and Dubash 2011). 3. Note that other fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal are also exhaustible, but here the depletion is less pressing than with oil, because reserves are relatively larger and there are more substitutes available. The same can be said with regard to uranium. 4. Figure is for October 2011. For more recent data, see: http://www.iea.org/ netimports.asp. 5. Personal interview with national official involved in IEA, 24 March 2010. 6. One metric to measure this is to look at how many times the IEA’s chief economist Fatih Birol has been cited in a leading international newspaper, the New York Times, since he took office in 1995. During his first five years (1995–1999) Birol is not mentioned or quoted even once. During the next five years (2000–2004) he is quoted seven times. This number increases to 24 in the next five-year period (2005–2010). The trend seems to continue as, for the year 2011 alone, Birol was cited nine times, the highest-ever mark for a single year. Source: own calculations based on the New York Times archive, accessed at: http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/nytarchive.html. 7. Ed Morse, ‘IEA Drawdown Marks Major Shift in Oil Price Policy,’ Financial Times, 23 June 2011. 8. Personal interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘Deputy Executive Director of the IEA from 1999 to 2008,’ Brussels, 24 March 2009. 170 Notes

9. David Adam, ‘International Energy Agency Blocking Global Switch to Renewables,’ Guardian, 8 January 2009. 10. Terry Macalister, ‘Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower,’ Guardian, 9 November 2009. 11. The partner countries are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and the Republic of South Africa, with Chile and Estonia as candidate countries for accession. 12. This is also the current practice in other organizations in the OECD family, such as the International Transport Forum and the Nuclear Energy Agency, both of which have member countries that are not in the OECD. 13. Stefan Nicola, ‘A Solar Revolution at the IEA,’ European Energy Review,4June 2010.

6 Diverging from the Path: The Creation of IRENA

1. Another energy organization, the International Energy Forum (IEF), has a small secretariat in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but compared to IRENA it is very weakly institutionalized and comprises fewer member states (about 89 in total). 2. For an overview of the history of international cooperation on renewable energy, see Rowlands (2005). 3. Unless stated otherwise, the following paragraphs are based on Eurosolar and Eurosolar and WCRE (2009). 4. Interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘Deputy Executive Director of the IEA from 1999 to 2008,’ Brussels, 24 March 2009. 5. Interview with member state representative #1, 26 April 2011. 6. Guardian, 28 June 2009. 7. Interview with member state representative #1. 8. Interview with member state representative #2, 15 October 2010. 9. Agence France Presse, 25 October 2010. 10. New York Times, 29 November 2010. 11. Interview with member state representative #1. 12. Annual report of the Interim Director-General to the ﬁfth session of the Preparatory Commission for the International Renewable Energy Agency on the implementation of the 2010 Work Programme and Budget, available from: http://www.irena.org/documents/uploadDocuments/PC.5_2.pdf. 13. Interview with member state representative #1. 14. Interview with member state representative #2, 15 October 2010. 15. Interview member state representative #3, 26 April 2011. 16. Interview member state representative #3, 26 April 2011. 17. Interview with Claude Mandil, ‘Executive Director of the IEA from 2003 to 2007,’ Paris, 9 March 2010. 18. New York Times, 29 November 2010. 19. Interview with W. C. Ramsay. 20. Interview with Adnan Z. Amin, ‘Director-General of IRENA,’ London, 25 April 2012. 21. Interview with member state representative #3. 22. Stefan Nicola, ‘A Solar Revolution at the IEA’, European Energy Review,4June 2010. Notes 171

7 The G8 and G20 as Energy Steering Committees?

1. Figures are for 2007. Own calculations based on: IEA. 2010. Key World Energy Statistics. Paris: OECD/IEA. Available from: http://www.iea.org/textbase/ nppdf/free/2010/key_stats_2010.pdf [Accessed 15 October 2010]. 2. For more information, see the Platform’s website: http://www.iea.org/ platform.asp. 3. G20 Leaders Declaration, Pittsburgh, 24–25 September 2009. 4. Fiona Harvey, ‘G20 Softens Plan on Fossil Fuel Subsidies,’ Financial Times, 24 June 2010. 5. G20 Leaders Declaration, Pittsburgh, 24–25 September 2009. 6. Personal correspondence with OECD official, 30 March 2010. 7. Annex to the Report to Leaders on the G20 Commitment to Rationalize and Phase Out Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies, available from: http://www.g20. org/Documents2010/expert/Annexes_of_Report_to_Leaders_G20_Inefficient_ Fossil_Fuel_Subsidies.pdf.

8Conclusions

1. The following lines partly draw on Lesage and Van de Graaf (2013). Bibliography

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Abu Dhabi, 106, 116, 123, 153 California, 79 Abu Dhabi Fund for Canada, 74 Development, 117 and G20, 139, 142 see also United Arab Emirates; and G8, 51, 132 Masdar and IRENA, 120 Achnacarry Agreement, 47 carbon budget, 106 Aleklett, K., 96 carbon capture and storage (CCS), 76, Algeria, 29 117, 131 Al Qaeda, 39 Global CCS Institute, 134, 149–50 Amenas gas plant, 29 see also Carbon Sequestration and Amin, A., 118, 122 Leadership Forum (CSLF) Arab Spring, 2, 29, 94, 135, 145 carbon dioxide (CO2) Archer, M., 19 emissions, 1, 23, 28, 33, 88, 123, Arctic, 38 129, 138, 152, 159 Argentina, 30, 40, 99, 139, 142 emission scenarios, 22–3, 88 Asia-Paciﬁc Economic Cooperation emission targets, 132 (APEC), 94 see also carbon budget Asia-Paciﬁc Partnership Carbon Sequestration Leadership (APP), 151–2 Forum (CSLF), 152–3 Australia, 74, 139–40, 150 Carter, J., 52, 54, 72 Caspian Development Bab-el-Mandeb, 31 Corporation, 150 Berdhimukhamedov, G., 6 Caspian Sea, 38, 150 Biermann, F., 7 Chernobyl, 76 biomass, 21, 39 Chile, 98–9 Bolivia, 29, 30, 143 China, 6, 31, 38, 58 Brandt Report, 114 and Africa, 60, 86 Brazil, 58, 61, 74, 142 and G20, 138–40 and coal, 29, 139 and IEA, 94–5, 97, economic growth and rising energy 99–100 demand, 6, 23, 63, 85, 88, 138 and IEF, 140–1 emissions, 23 and IRENA, 120 and IEA, 94–5, 97–100, 104, 140, Bretton Woods, 32, 109, 112 150, 159 British Petroleum (BP), 16, 41, and IPEEC, 61 47, 138 and IRENA, 120 see also Deepwater Horizon power shortages, 39 Brunei, 38 rare earths, 29 Bulgaria, 3 subsidies, 73, 142 Bush, G.W., 121 Clean Energy Ministerial, 152, 161

186 Index 187 climate change, 2, 4, 5, 9, 33, 34, 35, European Commission, 61, 94, 60, 78, 148, 149, 151, 163, 165 114, 150 and energy policy, 6, 27, 41, 63, 79 European Environment Agency and G8/G20, 42, 45, 125, 131–6, (EEA), 102 140–1, 144–5 European Union (EU), 23, 57, 61, 93, and IEA, 86, 88–9, 94, 97–8, 102, 106, 115, 164, 165 108, 119, 154, 155, 158–9 export credit agencies (ECA), 163 and IRENA, 108, 121, 153 externalities, see market failure Club of Rome, 79 Extractive Industries Transparency

CO2, see carbon dioxide Initiative (EITI), 42, 149 Cohen, B., 18 ExxonMobil, 16 Compagnie Française des Pétroles Exxon Valdez, 72, 76 (CFP), 47 compressed natural gas (CNG), 156 Fell, H-J., 114 Copenhagen climate conference, 23, Financial Stability Board, 6, 161 137, 162 Florini, A., 9, 15, 34, 37, 144, 165 cyber-attacks, 27, 31 Food and Agriculture Organization Cyprus, 38 (FAO), 131 France, 50, 58, 100, 116, 138, 150 Darfur, 42 Fukushima, 94, 135, 145 Deepwater Horizon, 41, 94 Denmark, 61, 74, 95, 107–8, 120, 150 G7, 51–2, 54, 130 G8, 6, 39, 61–2, 92, 102, 105, 111, economic crisis 125–46, 147, 158, 161, 164 of 1970s, 126 G20, 6, 39, 92, 94, 99, 104, 105, of 2008–2009, 1, 102, 163 125–46, 147, 159, 161 Ecuador, 51 gas-to-liquids (GTL), 26 Egypt, 48 Gas-OPEC, 150 Eisenhower, D., 46, 48, 151 Gazprom, 16, 30, 151 El-Baradei, M., 6, 160 General Agreement on Tariffs and electricity deprivation, see energy Trade (GATT), 82 poverty Germany, 60–1, 95, 107–8, 114–16, Elkind, J., 28, 32 119–21, 123, 150, 154 Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), 45, 56–8, Gilpin, R., 10 81, 83, 85, 94, 109, 145, 150, Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP), 153, 162 61, 131–2, 144, 149, 152 Energy Council, 6 global energy governance, 8–9, 34 energy independence, 25, 38 global public goods, 35, 127, 148 energy poverty, 1, 9, 19, 34, 37, 39–40, global warming, see climate change 43, 133, 140, 148–9, 151, 155 Goldthau, A., 9, 11, 35, 71 energy services, 9, 26, 28, 33, 36, Gore, A., 60 39–40, 42, 106, 164 Great Recession, see economic crisis Energy Stability Board, 6, 161 Gulf of Aden, 39 energy transition, see transition Gulf of Mexico, 41, 94, 138 Energy Watch Group, 96, 119 Gulf War, 59, 90 environmental Kuznets curve, 77 Euratom, 17 Heiligendamm Process, 61, 132–3, European Coal Organization (ECO), 136, 161 46, 162 horizontal drilling, 24 188 Index

Hormuz, 31, 39 Johannesburg Summit, 60, 114–15, human rights, 1, 42, 95, 149 121, 148 Hungary, 120 Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), 59, hurricanes, 30, 39, 90 93–4, 139 hydraulic fracturing, 24, 71 Kazakhstan, 74 India, 5, 58, 86, 88, 94, 95, 97, 100, Keohane, R., 13, 16, 18, 50, 64, 82–3, 120, 139, 140, 142, 150, 159 109, 110, 155 Indonesia, 38, 50, 98–9, 139, 142, 143 Kissinger, H., 38, 50, 54, 59, Inglehart, R., 76–7 86, 104 International Atomic Energy Agency Krasner, S., 10, 82 (IAEA), 6, 17, 45, 116, 123, Kuwait, 48 149, 160 International Energy Agency (IEA), Lake, D., 7–8 12–13, 45, 50, 58, 85–105, 109, Latin American Energy Organization 123–4, 129, 132, 136, 140, 142, (OLADE), 51 145, 147, 150–1, 153–4, 158–9, Lebanon, 38, 48 161, 164 Levant Basin, 38 International Energy Forum (IEF), liberalization, 4, 52–3, 63, 71 58–9, 85, 100–1, 136, 145, Libya, 48–9, 78, 90, 92, 162 150–1, 153 liqueﬁed natural gas (LNG), 26, International Labor Organization 89, 156 (ILO), 102 lithium, 29 International Monetary Fund (IMF), 5, Lovins, A., 79 82, 85, 143 Lubbers, R., 56–7 international oil company (IOC), 16 Lukman, R, 101 see also Seven Sisters Luxembourg, 68 see under individual names International Panel on Climate Major Economies Forum (MEF), 41, Change (IPCC), 15 99, 139, 152, 161 International Partnership for Energy Malacca, 31 Efﬁciency Cooperation (IPEEC), Malaysia, 38 61–2, 83, 111, 118, 132, 134, 136, Maldives, 112 144, 164 Mandatory Oil Import Program, International Platform on the 47–8, 151 Hydrogen Economy (IPHE), 152 Mandil, C., 17, 118 International Political Economy (IPE), market failure, 4, 35, 148 10, 18 Marshall Plan, 49 International Renewable Energy Masdar, 106, 116 Agency (IRENA), 13, 60–1, 82–3, Maugeri, L., 53 95, 101, 106–24, 147, 149, 150–1, McNamara, R., 51 153–4, 164 Mediterranean Sea, 38 Iran, 25, 31, 39, 48, 50, 55, 73, 94 Medvedev, D., 6, 30, 151 Iraq, 48–50, 55, 101 Mexico, 58, 61, 70, 99–100, 120, 138, Israel, 38, 48, 50 139–40, 142 Millennium Development Goals Japan, 38, 46, 50, 117, 120, 133 (MDG), 40 Johannesburg Renewable Energy Mitterand, F., 100 Coalition (JREC), 60, 115 Morales, E., 143 Index 189

Mozambique, 25 Petrobras, 16 Myanmar, 42 petroleum, see oil Philippines, 38 national oil company (NOC), 16 piracy, 31, 39 natural gas liquid (NGL), 89 Poneman, D., 59 Netherlands, 50–1 Portugal, 50 Nigeria, 42, 101 Priddle, R., 101 9/11, 31 production-sharing agreements, 54 Nixon, R., 49, 54, 86 proliferation of nuclear weapons, 2, Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 17 35, 78 North Atlantic Treaty Organization see also, Non-Proliferation Treaty (NATO), 91 (NPT) North Sea, 41 Norway, 40, 57, 149 Qaddaﬁ, M., 48, 49 Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), 17 Qatar, 25, 26, 31, 73 Nuclear Suppliers Group, 17 Nye, J., 18 RasGas, 31 Reagan, R., 52–4, 114 Obama, B., 121 Red Line Agreement, 47 oil curse, 28, 33 regime complex, 6–7, 11, 66 oil price, 1–2 REN21, 61, 152 and macroeconomy, 32 Renewable Energy and Energy volatility, 2, 31–2, 37, 138, 150 Efﬁciency Partnership (REEEP), oil shock, 5, 8, 32, 38, 50, 53, 85, 105, 61, 152 109, 155 Repsol, 30 oil spills, 31, 33, 41, 76, 94, 138, 149 resource nationalism, 30, 49, 60, 70–1 oil stocks, see strategic oil stocks Rhodesia, 50 oil transportation Rio + 20 conference, 40, 163 chokepoints, see under individual Royal Dutch Shell, see Shell names Ruggie, J., 42 Organization of Arab Russia, 25, 51, 57–8, 72, 73, 74, 81, 94, Petroleum-Exporting Countries 95, 100, 104, 120, 126, 131, 138, (OAPEC), 48, 50, 51, 81 139–40, 142 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Saudi Arabia, 24, 48, 55, 58, 71–2, 99, (OECD), 49, 50, 57, 85, 87–8, 92, 139–40, 142 95–7, 103, 133, 142, 154, 159 Saudi Aramco, 16, 31 Organization for European Economic Scheer, H., 95, 114–17, 119, 121 Cooperation (OEEC), 49 Schröder, G., 114 Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Seven Sisters, 19, 44, 45–8, 69–70 Countries (OPEC), 15, 19, 44, shale gas, see unconventionals 48–9, 50, 52–3, 55, 58, 71, 75, 85, Shell, 16, 26, 41, 42, 47 101, 106, 116, 136, 139, 142, 145, Socal, 47 150, 153, 155, 159 socio-technical system, 25, 36, 79–80, 156 peak oil, 25, 79, 88–9, 97, 102, South Africa, 40, 50, 58, 99–100, 120, 106, 154 139, 142 Pelosse, H., 116–17 South China Sea, 38 Pérez Alfonso, J. P., 48, 100 South Korea, 61, 138, 139 190 Index

Sovacool, B. K., 9, 34, 80, 144, 165 United Kingdom, 41, 121, 122 Soviet Union, 19, 47, 56, 63, 89, 98, United Nations Environment Program 109, 153 (UNEP), 102 Spain, 61, 95, 107, 119, 150 United Nations Framework spare capacity, 30–1, 59–60 Convention on Climate Change Statoil, 16 (UNFCCC), 5, 15, 102, 112, 116 Stigler, G, 111–12 United Nations Industrial Strange, S., 10, 44, 68, 72 Development Organization strategic oil stocks, 2, 30, 49, 51, 87, (UNIDO), 116 90–2, 103–4 United Nations (UN), 5, 82, 85, 94, subsidies, 21, 24, 104, 137–8, 141–3, 109, 148, 161 159, 162 United States, 47, 50, 57, 74, 117, 120, Sustainable Buildings Network (SBN), 122, 138, 142 61, 132–3 Unocal, 42, 60 Sustainable Development Goals uranium, 29, 74 (SDG), 40 Syria, 29, 48 Venezuela, 30, 48, 49, 50, 60, 101 Victor, D., 6, 41, 64, 69, 155, 161, 162 Taiwan, 38 Vietnam, 38 Tanaka, N., 25, 103 Tariki, A., 48 Washington Consensus, 112 Texaco, 47 Texas Railroad Commission, 47, 48, 49 Wendt, A., 160 Thailand, 99 Wen, J., 6 Thatcher, M., 4 World Bank, 51, 85, 94, 114, 131–2, as threat multiplier, 33 136, 140, 150, 153, 163 transition, 6, 15, 25, 28, 37, 46, 56–7, World Energy Agency, 6 75, 101, 103, 108, 125, 139, 148, World Energy Organization, 5, 107, 161, 163–4, 166 160–1 tsunami, 31 World Health Organization (WHO), 5 Turkey, 38, 139–40 World Trade Organization (WTO), 5, Turkmenistan, 6, 69 67, 85

Ukraine, 39, 56, 58, 60, 98, 131 Yergin, D., 39, 48 unconventionals, 24, 73–4, 89, Yom Kippur War, 50 94, 106 YPF, 30 United Arab Emirates (UAE), 116–18 Yukos, 58