1 Introduction
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Notes 1 Introduction 1. Neil Buckley and Theodor Troev, ‘Bulgaria PM to step down amid protests,’ Financial Times, 20 February 2013. 2. The keywords for the search were ‘energy’, ‘oil’, ‘gas’, ‘coal’, ‘wind’, ‘renew- able’, and ‘hydrogen’. The organizations that came up were the European Coal and Steel Community, the Central American Energy Commission, the European Atomic Energy Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency, the Latin American Energy Orga- nization, and the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds. It is striking that the first three organizations mentioned had already ceased to exist in the early 1990s. To be fair, it should be noted that here are of course many other forms of governance beyond intergovernmental organi- zations in the field of energy, and that there are some non-energy-specific international organizations that are relevant for the energy sector. 3. Mohamed ElBaradei, ‘A global agency is needed for the energy crisis,’ Financial Times, 23 July 2008. 4. This proposal is available from: http://archive.kremlin.ru/eng/text/docs/ 2009/04/215305.shtml (Accessed: 19 October 2011). 5. See his speech at the 66th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September 2011, available from: http://www.turkmenistan. gov.tm/_en/?idr=4&id=110924a (accessed 19 October 2011). 6. ‘China urges global energy cooperation,’ UPI, 16 January 2012. 7. I will also use these terms in a value-neutral fashion, which does not imply a positive bias toward institutional unity and centralization. For the sake of completeness it should be mentioned that still other terms are in use to describe this phenomenon such as ‘interlocking governance struc- tures’ (Underdal and Young 2004) and ‘institutional complexes’ (Stokke and Oberthür 2011). 8. Examples include: The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinc- tion of Petroleum Man by David Strahan (2007), The Impending World Energy Mess by Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, and Robert Wendling (2010), and The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Century by James H. Kunstler (2005). 9. Interview with Claude Mandil, ‘Executive director of the IEA from 2003 to 2007,’ Paris, 9 March 2010. 10. Joseph Nye, ‘Scholars on the sidelines,’ The Washington Post, 13 April 2009. 11. Since some parts of this book draw on previously published articles, I thank the respective publishers and co-authors for allowing me to use these mate- rials. Chapter 5 was previously published as ‘Obsolete or resurgent? The International Energy Agency in a changing global landscape,’ Energy Policy, 167 168 Notes 48, 83–92. Chapter 6 was previously published as ‘Fragmentation in global energy governance: Explaining the creation of IRENA,’ Global Environmen- tal Politics, 13(3), 14–33, while Chapter 7 previously appeared as ‘The G8 and G20 as global steering committees for energy: Opportunities and constraints,’ Global Policy, 2(S1), 19–30 (co-authored with Kirsten Westphal). 2 Energy and Global Governance 1. Actually, the IEA identified a fourth trend, the persistent failure to provide universal energy access to the world’s poor. This is not discussed here, for it is not a trend but rather a constant. Energy poverty will be discussed later on in this chapter when the question is addressed of what is to be governed in global energy. 2. Press Release: New Energy Realities – WEO Calls for Global Energy Rev- olution Despite Economic Crisis. 12 November 2008. Available at: www. iea.org/textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?press_rel_id=275 [accessed: February 2013]. 3. These are often referred to as the four As, usually omitting the ‘reliability’ component. See, for example, Hughes and Shupe (2011). 4. Andres Schipani, ‘Bolivia: the Saudi Arabia of lithium?,’ Financial Times, 7 January 2013. 5. Stanley Reed, ‘North Africa’s prospects as energy goliath are fading,’ New York Times, 22 February 2013. 6. Ryan Chilcote, Anna Shiryaevskaya, and Lyubov Pronina, ‘Russia’s Medvedev says Gazprom may lose gas-export monopoly,’ Bloomberg,23 January 2013. 7. Joseph Menn, ‘Chinese hackers hit energy groups,’ Financial Times,11 February 2011. 8. Simeon Kerr, ‘Gulf oil industry at risk of cyber attack,’ Financial Times, 23 October 2012. 9. Ed Crooks, ‘Hackers target US natural gas pipelines,’ Financial Times, 8 May 2012. 10. Note that for (the governments of) oil and gas exporting countries, secu- rity of demand is the chief concern as they often rely overwhelmingly on hydrocarbon export revenues to balance their national budgets. 3 Morphogenesis of the Energy Regime Complex 1. For a more complete, but static snapshot of the global energy architecture, see Chapter 4 of Lesage et al. (2010). 2. This speech is available from: http://www.iaea.org/About/history_speech. html (accessed 11 March 2010). 3. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin, available through http://www.opec.org. The following countries joined OPEC in the 1960s–1970s: Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria (1971), Ecuador (1973), and Gabon (1975). Notes 169 4. In principle, the ECT also covers other forms of energy. Yet, natural gas is the key issue on the Eurasian continent. The oil market is much more liquid and most oil transport takes place by ship, while natural gas trade on the continent is inevitably pipeline-bound. Coal is a separate case, as international trade in coal is relatively limited. 5. Interview with Claude Mandil, former Executive Director of the IEA, Paris, 9 March 2010. 6. Interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘IEA Deputy Executive Director from 1999 to 2008,’ Brussels, 6 May 2010. 7. Interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘IEA Deputy Executive Director from 1999 to 2008,’ Paris, 11 April 2008. 4 Interpreting the Global Energy Architecture 1. Keith Bradsher, ‘China Sharply Raises Energy Prices,’ New York Times, 20 June 2008. 2. IEA (2011) Electricity Information 2011. Paris: OECD/IEA. 3. Sonja Van Renssen (2011), ‘Public Acceptance: The Energy Sector’s Biggest Headache,’ European Energy Review, 16 June. 5 Adaptation at the Core: Reform of the IEA 1. http://www.iea.org/about/index.asp (last accessed: 9 February 2012). 2. See the special issue of Global Policy on global energy governance, issued in September 2011, for more detailed accounts of these structural transforma- tions in world energy (Florini and Dubash 2011). 3. Note that other fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal are also exhaustible, but here the depletion is less pressing than with oil, because reserves are relatively larger and there are more substitutes available. The same can be said with regard to uranium. 4. Figure is for October 2011. For more recent data, see: http://www.iea.org/ netimports.asp. 5. Personal interview with national official involved in IEA, 24 March 2010. 6. One metric to measure this is to look at how many times the IEA’s chief economist Fatih Birol has been cited in a leading international newspaper, the New York Times, since he took office in 1995. During his first five years (1995–1999) Birol is not mentioned or quoted even once. During the next five years (2000–2004) he is quoted seven times. This number increases to 24 in the next five-year period (2005–2010). The trend seems to continue as, for the year 2011 alone, Birol was cited nine times, the highest-ever mark for a single year. Source: own calculations based on the New York Times archive, accessed at: http://www.nytimes.com/ref/membercenter/nytarchive.html. 7. Ed Morse, ‘IEA Drawdown Marks Major Shift in Oil Price Policy,’ Financial Times, 23 June 2011. 8. Personal interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘Deputy Executive Director of the IEA from 1999 to 2008,’ Brussels, 24 March 2009. 170 Notes 9. David Adam, ‘International Energy Agency Blocking Global Switch to Renewables,’ Guardian, 8 January 2009. 10. Terry Macalister, ‘Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower,’ Guardian, 9 November 2009. 11. The partner countries are Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and the Republic of South Africa, with Chile and Estonia as candidate countries for accession. 12. This is also the current practice in other organizations in the OECD family, such as the International Transport Forum and the Nuclear Energy Agency, both of which have member countries that are not in the OECD. 13. Stefan Nicola, ‘A Solar Revolution at the IEA,’ European Energy Review,4June 2010. 6 Diverging from the Path: The Creation of IRENA 1. Another energy organization, the International Energy Forum (IEF), has a small secretariat in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, but compared to IRENA it is very weakly institutionalized and comprises fewer member states (about 89 in total). 2. For an overview of the history of international cooperation on renewable energy, see Rowlands (2005). 3. Unless stated otherwise, the following paragraphs are based on Eurosolar and Eurosolar and WCRE (2009). 4. Interview with William C. Ramsay, ‘Deputy Executive Director of the IEA from 1999 to 2008,’ Brussels, 24 March 2009. 5. Interview with member state representative #1, 26 April 2011. 6. Guardian, 28 June 2009. 7. Interview with member state representative #1. 8. Interview with member state representative #2, 15 October 2010. 9. Agence France Presse, 25 October 2010. 10. New York Times, 29 November 2010. 11. Interview with member state representative #1. 12. Annual report of the Interim Director-General to the fifth session of the Preparatory Commission for the International Renewable Energy Agency on the implementation of the 2010 Work Programme and Budget, available from: http://www.irena.org/documents/uploadDocuments/PC.5_2.pdf. 13. Interview with member state representative #1. 14. Interview with member state representative #2, 15 October 2010. 15. Interview member state representative #3, 26 April 2011.