TRANSITION TOWARDS A 100% RENEWABLE

ENERGY SYSTEM BY 2050 FOR UKRAINE

Michael Child, Dmitrii Bogdanov and Christian Breyer Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland Hans-Josef Fell, Komila Nabiyeva Energy Watch Group, Germany Yuliia Oharenko, Oksana Aliieva Heinrich Böll Foundation Kiev, Ukraine

NeoCarbon Energy 7th Researchers’ Seminar, January 24-25, 2017 Highlights

¾ A 100% systems can provide reliable, sustainable energy services before 2050

¾ A 100% renewable energy system is lower in cost than the current system based on nuclear and fossil fuels

¾ A well-designed 100% renewable energy system with solutions can provide power system stability, baseload power, and peak following power in all 8760 hours of the year

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 2 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Agenda

ƒ Motivation ƒ Methodology and Data ƒ Results ƒ Summary

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 3 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Motivation

¾ COP21 set out a framework for action aimed at stabilising global GHGs

¾ Past Ukrainian reductions are due to drops in population, GDP and living standards

¾ Improvements will result in increased Total estimated installed capacities (net) in 2015 in Ukraine. energy use, especially electricity

¾ Improvements must be made in a sustainable manner

¾ What could the transition pathway to a 100% RE power system by 2050 look like for Ukraine? Total projected installed capacities (net) in 2050 in Ukraine based on 100% RE.

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 4 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Agenda

ƒ Motivation ƒ Methodology and Data ƒ Results ƒ Summary

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 5 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Methodology Overview

¾ Energy transition pathway from 2015 nuclear and fossil based system to 100% RE by 2050 ¾ Transition in 5 year time steps ¾ No more than 20% growth in RE installed capacities compared to total power generation ¾ No new nuclear or fossil based thermal power plants installed after 2015 ¾ Least cost RE power plant mix replaces phased out nuclear and fossil power plants ¾ Energy system modelled to meet increasing electricity demand for each time step ¾ Research Objective: Find the least cost energy transition pathway for Ukraine. Total Electricity Consumption (TWh) 2015 158 2020 167 2025 175 2030 184 2035 194 2040 204 2045 214 Left: Aggregated load profile for Ukraine 2050 226 Right: Estimated electricity consumption of Ukraine from 2015 to 2050

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 6 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Methodology – Modelling Objective

¾ Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply ¾ optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources, ¾ optimal mix of capacities for all technologies, ¾ optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system, ¾ least cost for the given constraints.

Input data LUT Energy model, key features ¾ historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind ¾ linear optimization model speed and hydro precipitation ¾ hourly temporal resolution ¾ available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy ¾ 0.45° x 0.45° spatial resolution ¾ synthesized power load data ¾ multi-node approach ¾ gas and water desalination demand ¾ flexibility and expandability ¾ efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants ¾ efficiency of energy conversion processes ¾ capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources ¾ min and max capacity limits for all RE resources ¾ nodes and interconnections configuration

Role of solar PV in Global Energy Transition Scenarios 7 Christian Breyer Ź [email protected] Methodology Full system

Renewable energy sources • PV rooftop • PV ground-mounted • PV single-axis tracking • Wind onshore/ offshore • Hydro run-of-river • Hydro dam • Geothermal energy • CSP • Waste-to-energy • Biogas • Biomass Electricity transmission • node-internal AC transmission • interconnected by HVDC lines Storage options • Batteries • Pumped hydro storage • Adiabatic compressed air storage • Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat • Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas Energy Demand • Water electrolysis • Electricity • Methanation • Industrial Gas • CO2 from air Role• ofGas solar storage PV in Global Energy Transition Scenarios 8 Christian Breyer Ź [email protected] Agenda

ƒ Motivation ƒ Methodology and Data ƒ Results ƒ Summary

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 9 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Power Sector Mix

Installed capacities of different power plants required from 2015 to 2050 Electricity production of the different power plant categories from 2015 to 2050 ¾ Ukraine can achieve a 86% RE power system by 2035 and 100% RE by 2050 ¾ power eliminated by 2035 and by 2050 ¾ By 2050, PV dominates with 80 GW (44% of electricity generation) and plants with 32 GW (38%) ¾ GT plants to utilize synthetic produced via methanation units added in 2035 ¾ No major risk of stranded investments in gas turbines or gas infrastructure ¾ New wind installations peak in 2035 – PV single-axis tracking dominates until 2050

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 10 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Storage Mix

Additional storage capacity required from 2015 to 2050 Ratio of storage output to electricity demand from 2015 to 2050

¾ Higher capacity of gas storage required after 2035 ¾ Energy storage becomes cost competitive by 2035 – and is a cheaper option to balance the power system compared to fossil powered thermal plants

¾ By 2050, batteries provide a total output of about 38 TWhel ¾ Accounts for about 17 % of the total electricity demand ¾ Between 2030 and 2050, battery full charge cycles required are between 250 and 300 cycles a year ¾ Some of this could be provided by EV batteries without additional cost

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 11 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Summary of key capacities required for the integrated energy transition

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PV single-axis tracking GWp 0 0 0 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4

PV optimally tilted GWp 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.7 3.8 3.8 28.5

PV Prosumers GWp 0 0 0 1.8 9.4 15.3 29.8 36.5

Wind power plants GWe 0.5 0.5 17.1 23.1 26.6 27.4 28.5 32.3

Geothermal GWe 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Battery storage GWhe 0 0 0 12.8 32.1 44.1 84.4 139.3

PHS storage GWhe 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5

A-CAES storage GWhe 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

PtG electrolyser input GWe 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 7.8

Grid gas storage GWhgas 90 901 1012 1012 1568 1710 2791 18840

¾ Solar PV + Battery dominates the power sector after 2040 ¾ Installation of wind power plants stabilizes from 2035 onwards ¾ Batteries provide the least cost short-term storage for the Ukraine power system ¾ Grid gas storage provides a significant source of seasonal storage after 2045

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 12 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Hourly results for January 9-15

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 13 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Hourly results for June 23-29

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 14 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Carbon dioxide emissions

Key insights: ¾ Carbon emissions fall significantly after phase out of coal-based power generation ¾ Further reductions occur with replacement of imported natural gas with domestically produced methane ¾ Goals related to increased industrial output, higher population and higher GDP can be achieved in a low carbon world through use of renewable energy and increased efficiency

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 15 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results LCOE of the resulting optimal power mix

Detailed contribution of components to the total LCOE from 2015 to 2050 Relative contribution of financial components to the total LCOE from 2015 to 2050

¾ Energy transition Ź decrease system LCOE to 60 €/MWh by 2040 and 54 €/MWh by 2050 ¾ Batteries and PV single-axis largest contributor to LCOE by 2050 ¾ PV single-axis + Battery storage more cost competitive than wind power plants, but wind is an excellent resource during the winter half year

¾ CO2 costs disappear by 2035 ¾ Transition to a 100% RE power system Ź Capex contributes up to 80% towards the LCOE

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 16 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost comparison of ’cleantech’ solutions

Preliminary NCE results clearly indicate 100% RE systems cost about 55-70 €/MWh for 2030 cost assumptions on comparable basis

source: Breyer Ch., et al., 2016. On the Role of Solar Photovoltaics in Global Energy Transition Scenarios, 32nd EU PVSEC, Munich, June 20-24

Key insights: ¾ PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option ¾ Nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive ¾ Nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies ¾ 100% RE systems are highly cost competitive

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine Source: Agora , 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: 17 SEF 2016, Kiev, Ukraine What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French Michael ChildŹ [email protected] nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, , 38, 5174 Barriers and Solutions to 100% RE

Barriers Possible solutions Technological barriers: x Lack of energy storage solutions in x Lessons to be learned from solutions available in Germany, R & Ukraine other than PHS D allocated to storage solutions, electrification of transport and x Inefficiency use of EV batteries may offer significant potential for storage x Reduce transmission and distribution losses, easier to access for small-scale producers, inefficiencies in production reduced as RE generation replaces older nuclear and fossil plants Economical barriers: x Competitiveness x Solar has already reached grid parity in some market segments x PV module prices and will become more competitive on its own in the future x Low price of the electricity x PV module prices are falling continuously x A need for new kinds of electricity x Storage solutions are available at least in Germany – a need to markets and rules import solutions x Inefficient markets of storage systems x As long as electricity prices are lower in Ukraine than in other x Support and high subsidies for countries, solar will not be as popular as elsewhere conventional energy system x Ideally there should be no support systems in the long run distorting markets x Subsidies for harmful emissions of conventional energy production need to be eliminated

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 18 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Barriers and Solutions to 100% RE

Barriers Possible solutions Institutional and political barriers: x Current energy regime based on nuclear x No new investments in nuclear or fossil plants power and fossil fuels x Maintain and expand gas infrastructure x Vested interests x Only need to switch fuel from NG to biogas or SNG x Path dependency x A possibility to build a more distributed energy regime x Lock-in x New business models needed x Incumbent electricity companies x Incentives for wide range of efficiency improvements x Lack of support policy x Some support policy for renewables and storage seems to be x Lack of powerful advocacy coalitions needed in the beginning x Fossil fuels lobbying x More established and powerful solar energy advocacy x Failure to overcome existing subsidies coalition x Wind energy advocacy appears well developed

Behavioral barriers: x General attitudes x More information and practical examples of successful x Psychological resistance installations provided x Political will x Maintain strong political will for change, fairness, sustainability and energy independence

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 19 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Agenda

ƒ Motivation ƒ Methodology and Data ƒ Results ƒ Summary

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 20 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Summary

¾ Ukraine can achieve 100% RE by 2050, with average LCOE of 70 €/MWh ¾ By 2050 LCOE is 54 €/MWh, and continuously declining from today onwards ¾ After 2035, the optimal mix for Ukraine will be lead by solar PV and wind power ¾ Battery storage (possibly in the form of vehicle-to-grid connections of electric vehicles) becomes an important source of system flexibility ¾ Gas infrastructure maintains a strong position in the energy system ¾ Imported NG is gradually replaced by domestic bio and synthetic methane ¾ PtG technology provides flexibility and storage on a seasonal level ¾ Nuclear and plants can be allowed to live out their expected lifetimes ¾ No risk of stranded investments unless societal goals change ¾ Several barriers exist related to the current energy system which can effectively be overcome through policy and planning ¾ The results present a least cost transition path for Ukraine to meet the country’s future power demands through a 100% RE system

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 21 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Thank you for your attention!

NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategy research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre.

™ Please check next slides for an overview of all data, assumptions and references. FURTHER INFORMATION Resource Overview – Solar and Wind

¾ Onshore wind resource especially good at high elevations and on coastal areas ¾ Winds somewhat stronger when solar resource is weaker ¾ Offshore wind resource not generally good in Black Sea area with the exception of western areas off the coast of Romania and Bulgaria ¾ Offshore area near Odessa may hold some potential ¾ Solar resource very good across entire country in all but winter months

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 24 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Data Power Plant Capacities – Technical and Financial Assumptions

¾ Capex variation based on learning curves ¾ Least cost power plant capacities based on ¾ Cost ¾ Efficiency of generation and storage ¾ Power to energy ratio of storage ¾ Available resource ¾ Wind onshore has 2752 full load hours (FLH) ¾ PV single-axis has 1488 FLH ¾ WACC is set to 7% for all years ¾ Fuel costs

¾ 47.3 €/MWhth for oil (~100 USD/bbl in 2020 and ~+2.1%/a) Variation in capex from 2015 – 2050 for all power plant components ¾ 22.2 €/MWhth for gas (in utilised by model. Detailed capex, fixed opex, efficiency and power to 2020 and ~+3.0%/a) energy ratio numbers are presented at end of slide set

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 25 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Data Area information

Technology 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Area (km²) 603 700 Population (Thousands) 44 824 43 679 42 373 40 892 39 329 37 818 36 423 35 117 Electricity demand (TWh) 176.1 184.1 190.8 197.0 204.3 212.8 221.8 234.2 Electricity price (Residential, Commercial 0.020 0.026 0.033 0.042 0.053 0.068 0.086 0.110 and Industrial - €/kWh)

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 26 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Data Lower and Upper Capacity Limits

Upper and Lower Capacity Limits - Renewables (inflexible)

Wind Run-of-River PV optimal tilt PV 1-axis tracking Wind Onshore Hydro Dam CSP Offshore Hydro

MW MW MW MW MW MW MW

855-2700000 0-2700000 506-200000 0-100000 3155-4700 2653-4000 0-5700000

Upper and Lower Capacity Limits - Renewables (flexible)

Biogas Biomass Geothermal Ocean

MW MW MW MW

3933-NL 5560-NL 0-NL 0-NL*

NL – No upper limit specified for * – Not utilized for Ukraine technologies, but resource availability will limit capacity development

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 27 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Data Lower and Upper Capacity Limits

Upper and Lower Capacity Limits – Non-renewables

Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear

MW MW MW MW

25285-NL 0-NL 9861-NL 13107-NL

Upper and Lower Capacity Limits – Storage

Adiabatic Compressed Air Energy Pumped hydro storage Batteries Storage MWh MWh MWh

9488-19000 0-9330000000 0-NL

NL – No upper limit specified

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 28 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Data Resource potentials and costs for biomass and waste

Solid residues Biogas Solid waste (TWh) (TWh) (TWh) Straw from grain Municipal Used wood 4.44 36.96 6.31 crops biowaste Industrial residues 1.39 Straw from rape 6.84 Excrement 5.00 Corn 35.74 Bagasse 7.36 residues Sunflower 14.00 Landfill gas 2.12 residues Wood residues 14.41 Sewage gas 2.20 Total 5.83 107.95 22.99

K. Bunzel, V. Zeller, M. Buchhorn, F. Griem, and D. Thrän, “Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung von Biomassepotenzialen,” German Biomass Research Center, Leipzig, 2009.

G. Geletukha, T. Zheliezna, P. Kucheruk, and Y. Oliinyk, “State of the art and prospects for bioenergy development in Ukraine,” Bioenergy Association of Ukraine Position Paper 9, 2014. Available: http://uabio.org/img/files/docs/position-paper-uabio-9-en.pdf.

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 29 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Power Sector Mix

Installed capacities of different power plants required from 2015 to 2050 Additional capacities of different power plants required from 2015 to 2050 ¾ Ukraine can achieve a 90% RE power system by 2035 and 100% RE by 2050 ¾ Coal power eliminated by 2035 and nuclear power by 2050 ¾ By 2050, PV dominates with 90 GW and wind power plants with 44 GW ¾ GT plants to utilize synthetic natural gas produced via methanation units added in 2035 ¾ No major risk of stranded investments in gas turbines or gas infrastructure ¾ New wind installations peak in 2035 – PV single-axis tracking dominates until 2050

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 30 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Results Power Sector Mix

FLH variations of the different power plants used in the model Electricity production of the different power plant categories from 2015 to 2050

¾ FLH of PV single-axis tracking, PV fixed tilted and wind onshore maximized ¾ Least cost option determined by model ¾ By 2050, solar PV generates 42% of the total electricity generated ¾ By 2050, Wind generates 44% of the total electricity generated

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 31 SEF 2016, Kiev, Ukraine Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Review of annualized costs

Key insights: ¾ Decreasing opex costs due to phasing out of nuclear and fossil fuels ¾ Increasing relevance of capex for renewables, especially in period of 2025-2035

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 32 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Breakdown of LCOE

Key insights: ¾ LCOE comprised mostly of capex of renewables ¾ Increasing relevance of storage costs after 2035 ¾ Fuel and carbon emission costs significantly decreased up to 2040

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 33 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Installed Capacity (GW)

Technology 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PV prosumers RES 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.83 2.41 5.98 7.53 9.41 PV prosumers COM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.49 2.00 4.76 5.80 PV prosumers IND 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.47 7.34 17.49 21.32 PV prosumers Total 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.83 9.37 15.32 29.78 36.53 PV 0-axis system 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 2.71 3.79 3.81 28.52 PV 1-axis system 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.39 15.39 15.39 15.39 15.39 PV System 0.86 0.86 0.86 16.25 18.10 19.18 19.20 43.91 PV Total 0.86 0.86 0.86 18.08 27.47 34.50 48.99 80.45 CSP 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.02 Wind onshore 0.51 0.50 17.12 23.07 26.61 27.37 28.49 32.33 Wind offshore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wind Total 0.51 0.50 17.12 23.07 26.61 27.37 28.49 32.33 Hydro RoR 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.17 3.20 3.39 3.39 Hydro dams 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.65 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 Hydro Total 5.81 5.81 5.81 5.81 7.15 7.18 7.37 7.37

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 34 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Installed Capacity (GW)

Technology 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Geothermal PP 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 Biomass PP 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.63 6.74 6.74 6.74 6.74 MSW PP 0.00 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 CCGT PP 0.00 0.69 3.36 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 OCGT PP 9.86 4.98 16.22 15.92 15.92 14.34 14.29 14.11 Biogas PP 0.00 0.42 0.42 0.71 0.91 0.91 0.90 1.03 Biogas Digester 0.01 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Biogas Upgrade 0.00 1.68 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.93 1.89 Hard coal PP 25.29 10.50 2.47 1.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nuclear PP 13.11 13.11 13.11 8.55 2.85 2.85 1.90 0

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 35 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Installed Storage Capacity (GWh*)

Technology 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Battery RES 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.94 12.87 15.76 Battery COM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 8.07 9.99 Battery IND 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 29.64 36.67 Battery SC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.23 50.58 62.42 Battery System 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.80 32.14 33.82 33.82 76.86 Battery total 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.80 32.14 44.06 84.41 139.28 PHS storage 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 TES storage 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 A-CAES storage 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 PtSNG el. input (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.18 7.76 Gas storage 90 901 1012 1012 1568 1710 2791 18840

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 36 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Full Load Hours (h)

Technology 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PV 0-axis 1222 1222 1222 1222 1222 1222 1222 1222 PV 1-axis 0 1488 1488 1488 1488 1488 1488 1488 CSP 0 1256 1256 1256 1256 1256 1256 1256 Wind onshore 2752 2752 2752 2752 2752 2752 2752 2752 Wind offshore 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro ROR 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 Hydro dams 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 1618 Geothermal 0 7190 8322 6032 6031 6031 6031 6031 Bat SC Res 0 2559 2796 2906 849 1389 1427 1401 Bat SC Com 0 2825 2871 2139 1275 1110 1429 1409 Bat SC Ind 0 1644 2856 1 620 1110 1429 1409 Bat system 0 2555 2823 2353 880 1381 1429 1407

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 37 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Full Load Hours (h)

Technology 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PHS 360 2315 1958 1753 1783 1832 1591 1513 TES 0 42 1 4674 4621 4284 4541 5373 CAES 893 213 139 1382 1499 1924 1429 2042 PtSNG 0 1739 137 2349 2306 2454 1912 4656 CCGT 4884 8322 3042 3498 3376 3333 3164 2412 OCGT 1664 334 144 369 287 360 440 417 ST 1664 1304 642 936 847 947 979 816 Biomass PP 0 3883 28093 2679 2732 3450 3918 3365 MSW PP 8146 8322 8322 6032 6229 5927 5506 6218 Biogas PP 0 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 Biogas Upgr 7008 8322 6558 3914 3260 3360 3558 3276 Biogas Dig 0 8322 8319 8319 8317 8319 8322 8322 Hard coal PP 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 8322 Nuclear PP 6570 7446 7446 7446 7446 7446 7446 0

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 38 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Steam turbine Capex €/kWe 760 740 720 700 670 640 615 600 (CSP) Opex fixed €/kWe 15.2 14.8 14.4 14 13.4 12.8 12.3 12 í 95 % Lifetime Years 25 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 42 % 42 % 42 % 43 % 44 % 44 % 45 % 45 %

Water electrolysis Capex €/kW_HЇ 800 685 500 363 325 296 267 248

Opex fixed €/kW_HЇ 32 27 20 12.7 11.4 10.4 9.4 8.7

Opex variable €/kWh_HЇ 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% 84% District Heat Capex €/kWe 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Burner Opex fixed €/kWe 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Hot Heat Burner Capex €/kWe 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Opex fixed €/kWe 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 % 95 %

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 39 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 CAES Capex €/kWe 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 900 Opex fixed €/kWe 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Lifetime Years 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Efficiency % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % 70 % CCGT PP Capex €/kWe 775 775 775 775 775 775 775 775 Opex fixed €/kWe 19.375 19.375 19.375 19.375 19.375 19.375 19.375 19.375 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 Lifetime Years 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 Efficiency % 58 % 58 % 58 % 58 % 59 % 60 % 60 % 60 % OCGT PP Capex €/kWe 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 475 Opex fixed €/kWe 9.5 9.5 9.5 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 14.25 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 Lifetime Years 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 Efficiency % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 %

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 40 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Oil PP Capex €/kWe 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 Opex fixed €/kWe 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % Coal PP Capex €/kWe 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 Opex fixed €/kWe 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 Efficiency % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % 39 % Nuclear PP Capex €/kWe 6210 6003 6003 5658 5658 5244 5244 5175 Opex fixed €/kWe 162 157 157 137 137 116 116 109 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 0.0025 Lifetime Years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 Efficiency % 37 % 37 % 37 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % 38 % MSW PP Capex €/kWe 5940 5630 5440 5240 5030 4870 4690 4540 Opex fixed €/kWe 267.3 253.35 244.8 235.8 226.35 219.15 211.05 204.3 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 0.0069 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 % 34 %

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 41 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Biomass PP Capex €/kWe 3400 2900 2700 2500 2300 2200 2100 2000 Opex fixed €/kWe 238 203 189 175 161 154 147 140 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 36 % 37 % 40 % 43 % 45 % 47 % 48 % 48 % Methanation Capex €/kW_SNG 492 421 310 278 208 190 172 160 Opex fixed €/kW_SNG 19.7 16.8 12.4 11.1 9.9 9 8.2 7.6 Opex variable €/kWh_SNG 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 0.0015 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 % 77 %

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 42 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BHKW Wood Capex €/kWe 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 Gasifier Opex fixed €/kWe 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 Efficiency % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 % BHKW Biogas Capex €/kWe 503 429 400 370 340 326 311 296 Opex fixed €/kWe 20.1 17.2 16.0 14.8 13.6 13.0 12.4 11.8 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Efficiency % 33 % 34 % 37 % 40 % 42 % 44 % 44 % 45 % COЇ Scrubbing Capex €/t_COЇ*a 480 411 301 228 201 183 165 154 Opex fixed €/t_COЇ*a 19.2 16.4 12.0 9.1 8.0 7.3 6.6 6.1 Opex variable €/t_COЇ 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Concentrated Capex €/kWth 547.8 427.8 369.2 326.9 304 283.6 265.4 249.5 Solar Receiver Opex fixed €/kWth 12.6 9.8 8.5 7.5 7 6.5 6.1 5.7 Lifetime Years 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 43 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Electricity to Heat Capex €/kWe 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Opex fixed €/kWe 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Efficiency % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % 99 % Biogas Digester Capex €/kWe 771 731 706 680 653 632 609 589 Opex fixed €/kWe 30.8 29.2 28.2 27.2 26.1 25.3 24.3 23.6 Lifetime Years 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 25 Efficiency % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % Biogas Upgrade Capex €/kWe 340 290 270 250 230 220 210 200 Opex fixed €/kWe 27.2 23.2 21.6 20 18.4 17.6 16.8 16 Lifetime Years 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Efficiency % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % 98 % Geothermal PP Capex €/kWe 5250 4970 4720 4470 4245 4020 3815 3610 Opex fixed €/kWe 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Lifetime Years 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 Efficiency % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 % 24 %

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 44 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Solar PV – 0-axis Capex €/kWe 1000 680 560 480 420 370 330 300 Opex fixed €/kWe 15 10.2 8.4 7.2 6.3 5.6 5 4.5 Lifetime Years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40 Solar PV – 1-axis Capex €/kWe 1150 750 620 530 465 410 365 330 tracking Opex fixed €/kWe 17.3 11.3 9.3 8 7 6.2 5.5 5 Lifetime Years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40 Solar PV - Rooftop Capex €/kWe 1360 1090 890 760 680 610 550 500 Opex fixed €/kWe 20 16 13 11 10 9 8 8 Lifetime Years 30 30 35 35 35 40 40 40

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 45 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wind Onshore Capex €/kWe 1250 1150 1060 1000 965 940 915 900 Opex fixed €/kWe 25 23 21 20 19 19 18 18 Lifetime Years 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Wind Offshore Capex €/kWe 3220 2880 2700 2580 2460 2380 2320 2280 Opex fixed €/kWe 113 92 84 77 71 67 58 52 Lifetime Years 20 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Hydropower – Capex €/kWe 1650 1650 1650 1650 1650 1650 1650 1650 Dam water influx Opex fixed €/kWe 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 49.5 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 0.003 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Efficiency % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % 90 % Hydropower – Capex €/kWe 2560 2560 2560 2560 2560 2560 2560 2560 run-of-the-river Opex fixed €/kWe 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 76.8 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 46 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions - Storage

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Li-ion stationary Capex €/kWhe 600 300 200 150 120 100 85 75 batteries Opex fixed €/kWhe 24 9 5 3.75 3 2.5 2.125 1.875 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 Lifetime Years 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Efficiency in % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % Efficiency out % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % 96 % Energy/Power h 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Pumped Hydro Capex €/kWhe 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 storage Opex fixed €/kWhe 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Opex variable €/kWhe 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Efficiency in % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % Efficiency out % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % 92 % Energy/Power h 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Adiabatic Capex €/kWhe 35.0 35.0 33.0 31.1 30.4 29.8 28.0 26.3 Compressed Air Opex fixed €/kWhe 0.46 0.46 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.36 0.34 Energy Storage Opex variable €/kWhe 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 Lifetime Years 40 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 Efficiency in % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % Efficiency out % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % 84 % Self-discharge % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % Energy/Power h 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 47 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions - Storage

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Hydro Dam Water Energy/Power h 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 Basin OUT Compressed Air Capex €/kWhe 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Storage Opex fixed €/kWhe 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Energy/Power h 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Biogas Storage Capex €/kWhgas 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Opex fixed €/kWhgas 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Lifetime Years 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Gas storage Capex €/kWhgas 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Opex fixed €/kWhgas 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 48 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions - Storage

Technology Cost category Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Hydrogen Storage Capex €/kWhgas 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Opex fixed €/kWhgas 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Methane Storage Capex €/kWhgas 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Opex fixed €/kWhgas 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Lifetime Years 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Liquid Fuel Capex €/kWhth 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Storage Opex fixed €/kWhth 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Solid Fuel Storage Capex €/kWhth 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Opex fixed €/kWhth 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 Lifetime Years 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 49 Michael ChildŹ [email protected] Cost assumptions - Fuels

Fuel Unit 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Crude oil USD/bbl 97 77 87 97 96 95 95 95 Crude oil €/MWh 52.5 35.2 39.8 44.4 43.9 43.5 43.5 43.5 Natural Gas €/MWh 21.8 22.2 30 32.7 36.1 40.2 40.2 40.2 Biomethane €/MWh 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 Coal - Hard €/MWh 7.7 7.7 8.4 9.2 10.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 Coal - Lignite €/MWh 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 Uranium €/MWh 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Solid waste €/MWh -10.6 -11.4 -12.8 -14.7 -17.4 -19.0 -20.1 -20.1 Solid residues €/MWh 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Biogas €/MWh 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 CO2 €/ton 9 28 52 61 68 75 100 150

Transition towards a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 for Ukraine 50 Michael ChildŹ [email protected]