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The Long Emergency, Part 2

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The Long Emergency, Part 2 The Long Emergency, Part 2 What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gasoline? By JAMES HOWARD KUNSTLER Pre-Reading Questions: 1) Why did the U.S. go to war against Iraq? 2) Which three countries consume the most oil? 3) Which type of transportation do you predict has the brightest future: automobiles, airplanes, or trains? Why? What the Future Will Look Like So, it looks like we are entering a new period of great instability and difficulties. Just look at a world map: The world's riCHest energy regions are already experienCing wars and can expect more. The Middle East contains two-tHirds of tHe world's remaining oil, so the U.S. has tried to Control tHe region by, in effeCt, opening a big poliCe station in Iraq. THe goal of tHe Iraq War was not just to seCure Iraq's oil, but also to influenCe tHe beHavior of neigHboring Countries, espeCially Iran and Saudi Arabia. And tHen tHere is CHina, wHiCH reCently passed Japan to become tHe world's seCond biggest Consumer of oil. China's huge industrial growtH Has made it inCreasingly dependent on tHe imports tHat otHer Countries rely on. Our world leaders know about tHis problem, but seem unable to take effective action. For example, about ten years ago the U.S. Department of Energy released a report tHat officially admits that peak oil is real and Clearly says tHat "tHe world Has never faCed a problem like tHis. The problem will spread everywHere and will not be temporary." The Long EmergenCy will require us to downsCale and re-scale nearly everytHing we do and how we do it -- the kind of communities we live in, tHe way we grow our food, the way we work, and the way we trade tHe produCts of our work. Our lives will beCome more local. Daily life will be less about mobility and muCH more about staying wHere you are. AnytHing organized on tHe large sCale, wHetHer it is government or a Corporate business projeCt such as a large sHopping mall, will suffer as tHe CHeap energy tHat supports bigness falls away. The instability of tHe Long EmergenCy will produCe a lot of eConomiC losers. Food is going to be a big problem in tHe Long EmergenCy. As industrial agriCulture fails due to a scarcity of oil- and gas-based inputs, we will Have to grow more of our food Closer to wHere we live, and do it on a smaller sCale. THe global economy 20 years from now may aCtually Center on agriCulture -- not information, not teCHnology, not services. Instead, a return to farming. THis is probably a surprising idea for most readers, and it raises diffiCult questions about the distribution of land and cultivation methods. Food produCtion will become muCH more labor-intensive than it has been for a long time. THe need for farm workers will greatly inCrease in developed Countries. But are tHese Countries preparing tHeir young people for tHat lifestyle? How many university graduates tHese days earn degrees in farming or Crafts? Today's global Commerce system will not survive far into tHe Long EmergenCy. Large CHain stores' supply lines will easily be interrupted. Poor Countries that supply riCH Countries with cheap goods will also experienCe the instability that comes with the energy Crisis. So many of tHe Common produCts we enjoy today, from paints to medicines, are made from oil. THey will beCome inCreasingly scarce or unavailable. THe selling of tHings will Have to be reorganized at tHe loCal sCale. It will Have to be based on moving produCts sHorter distanCes. It will result in HigHer Costs for tHe tHings we buy and fewer CHoiCes. The future of tHe automobile is not good. As gasoline becomes scarce, and government tax revenue falls, our roads will suffer. Highway systems are surprisingly deliCate. If roads are not maintained to a HigH degree, problems spread quickly. The system does not allow partial failure. Highways are eitHer in exCellent Condition, or tHey quiCkly fall apart. THe airline industry, already in deep trouble, is likely to collapse. Eventually, the cost of maintaining big airports will be too muCH if only tHe very riCH Can afford to fly. Railroads are far more energy effiCient tHan Cars, truCks or airplanes, and tHey Can be run on anytHing from wood to eleCtriCity. Countries tHat already Have extensive railroad systems will have an advantage during tHe Long EmergenCy. THe suCCessful regions in tHe Long EmergenCy will be tHe ones surrounded by healthy farmlands, Clean water sources, and diverse loCal economies based on sustainable inputs. Big cities will sHrink. THe proCess will be painful. In many AmeriCan Cities, suCH as Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis, tHat proCess is already happening. New York and CHiCago faCe huge difficulties. THeir former agriCultural surroundings were long ago Covered witH ConCrete. THe Long EmergenCy is going to be very diffiCult for Humans to face. We will not believe it is happening to us. Can 200 years of our modern lifestyle really be so weakened by a worldwide energy sHortage? People will want to deny tHe evidenCe, even as tHe CHanges are happening. THe survivors will Have to cultivate a religion of Hope -- that is, a deep and complete belief tHat Humanity is wortH Carrying on. If tHere is any positive side to tHe dark CHanges Coming our way, it may be in tHe benefits of close community relations, of Having to really work side-by-side witH our neigHbors. We will take part in projeCts witH real results, and be fully involved in meaningful social interaCtions instead of being merely entertained to avoid boredom. Years from now, in tHe middle of tHe Long EmergenCy, if we Hear singing, it won’t be the reCorded voiCe of some idol from far away delivered to us by a teCHnologiCal deviCe such as a television or smartpHone. Instead, we will Hear our own voiCes, and we will sing witH our wHole Hearts. Comprehension and Discussion: 1) According to the writer, what kind of jobs will become more necessary in the future? Which ones will become less necessary? Do you agree or disagree with him? 2) Near the end, the writer gives his definition of “successful regions in the Long Emergency.” Think about the local area that you live in. How well do you think your region meets the writer’s criteria? 3) Think about the shops around the station near this university. If the Long Emergency (severe energy scarcity) really happens, which shops do you predict will succeed? Which ones will fail? 4) Imagine if the scenario in the final paragraph really happens. Would you see it as a positive or negative change? And can you imagine similar changes that might happen in the Long Emergency? Adapted from http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/7203633/the_long_emergency .
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